埃斯顿 02715中签预测
埃斯顿（02715）中签预测
| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
7.4亿 |
| 2 |  老虎 |
4.2亿 |
| 3 |  辉立 |
3.6亿 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
1.7亿 |
| 5 |  信诚 |
1.0亿 |
| 6 |  盈立 |
8245万 |
| 7 |  长桥 |
7528万 |
| 8 |  致富 |
4670万 |
| 9 |  华盛 |
3550万 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-27T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2026-02-27T10:22:24+08:00 | 0.0025527259466358717 |
| 2026-02-27T10:22:54+08:00 | 0.08417917704977816 |
| 2026-02-27T10:22:58+08:00 | 0.09074332948398468 |
| 2026-02-27T10:23:13+08:00 | 0.1454445997690391 |
| 2026-02-27T11:15:40+08:00 | 0.17583419437184708 |
| 2026-02-27T11:15:54+08:00 | 0.21418586276059076 |
| 2026-02-27T11:17:11+08:00 | 0.910897708624567 |
| 2026-02-27T11:17:15+08:00 | 1.0587734759618306 |
| 2026-02-27T11:17:29+08:00 | 1.4538382057983346 |
| 2026-02-27T12:06:01+08:00 | 1.5386859539293747 |
| 2026-02-27T12:06:49+08:00 | 1.5476204947426002 |
| 2026-02-27T12:07:23+08:00 | 1.6597580988269616 |
| 2026-02-27T12:07:41+08:00 | 1.7080775542454263 |
| 2026-02-27T12:07:54+08:00 | 1.9147267975445208 |
| 2026-02-27T13:43:55+08:00 | 1.9526530116088252 |
| 2026-02-27T13:44:25+08:00 | 1.9590956056646205 |
| 2026-02-27T13:45:24+08:00 | 2.0053485686500943 |
| 2026-02-27T13:45:43+08:00 | 2.0113049291922445 |
| 2026-02-27T13:46:22+08:00 | 2.430681334710995 |
| 2026-02-27T13:46:41+08:00 | 2.461070929313803 |
| 2026-02-27T14:31:09+08:00 | 2.643408496930651 |
| 2026-02-27T14:31:49+08:00 | 2.6516744666626146 |
| 2026-02-27T14:32:29+08:00 | 2.656536801799064 |
| 2026-02-27T14:32:48+08:00 | 2.706071841001641 |
| 2026-02-27T14:33:05+08:00 | 2.752932595879171 |
| 2026-02-27T14:33:24+08:00 | 2.8623351364492797 |
| 2026-02-27T15:23:15+08:00 | 2.898255637269799 |
| 2026-02-27T15:24:07+08:00 | 2.9000790129459673 |
| 2026-02-27T15:24:31+08:00 | 3.043639457849632 |
| 2026-02-27T15:24:44+08:00 | 3.0731781438035615 |
| 2026-02-27T15:24:54+08:00 | 3.2555157114204096 |
| 2026-02-27T16:08:04+08:00 | 3.266030511152981 |
| 2026-02-27T16:08:28+08:00 | 3.288701148726676 |
| 2026-02-27T16:08:58+08:00 | 3.317510484410138 |
| 2026-02-27T16:09:05+08:00 | 3.356591503069349 |
| 2026-02-27T16:09:18+08:00 | 3.490305719321704 |
| 2026-02-27T17:19:48+08:00 | 3.5170485625721755 |
| 2026-02-27T17:20:16+08:00 | 3.519297392572783 |
| 2026-02-27T17:20:41+08:00 | 3.5390506290646084 |
| 2026-02-27T17:21:01+08:00 | 3.5185680423023156 |
| 2026-02-27T17:21:22+08:00 | 3.682671853157479 |
| 2026-02-27T17:21:44+08:00 | 6.04090439433538 |
| 2026-02-27T18:01:55+08:00 | 6.066917887315383 |
| 2026-02-27T18:02:27+08:00 | 6.070807755424543 |
| 2026-02-27T18:03:26+08:00 | 6.733300917765757 |
| 2026-02-27T18:06:16+08:00 | 6.735306631009542 |
| 2026-02-27T18:06:28+08:00 | 6.762292591016836 |
| 2026-02-27T18:07:07+08:00 | 6.792682185619644 |
| 2026-02-27T21:57:34+08:00 | 6.794262444538989 |
| 2026-02-27T21:58:36+08:00 | 6.794748678052635 |
| 2026-02-27T21:58:55+08:00 | 6.795356469944691 |
| 2026-02-27T21:59:10+08:00 | 6.798638546161794 |
| 2026-02-27T22:00:58+08:00 | 6.864523187260682 |
| 2026-02-27T22:02:02+08:00 | 6.884580319698535 |
| 2026-02-27T22:03:07+08:00 | 7.097307481918191 |
| 2026-02-27T22:03:25+08:00 | 7.194554184647177 |
| 2026-02-27T22:04:10+08:00 | 7.197410806539841 |
| 2026-02-27T22:04:15+08:00 | 7.235519358171762 |
| 2026-02-27T22:06:57+08:00 | 7.241597277092324 |
| 2026-02-28T09:55:44+08:00 | 7.266152069531392 |
| 2026-02-28T09:56:09+08:00 | 7.266152069531392 |
| 2026-02-28T09:56:28+08:00 | 7.690208472618975 |
| 2026-02-28T09:56:40+08:00 | 8.00626025648818 |
| 2026-02-28T09:56:51+08:00 | 8.07293502704674 |
| 2026-02-28T09:57:07+08:00 | 8.080106971373002 |
| 2026-02-28T09:57:24+08:00 | 8.10855163192123 |
| 2026-02-28T09:57:31+08:00 | 8.109220203002492 |
| 2026-02-28T09:57:38+08:00 | 8.145687716525861 |
| 2026-02-28T09:57:53+08:00 | 8.236856500334286 |
| 2026-02-28T10:12:20+08:00 | 8.248769221418586 |
| 2026-02-28T10:12:27+08:00 | 8.306327113596305 |
| 2026-02-28T10:12:37+08:00 | 8.308272047650885 |
| 2026-02-28T10:12:46+08:00 | 8.314349966571445 |
| 2026-02-28T11:07:18+08:00 | 8.320002431167568 |
| 2026-02-28T11:07:45+08:00 | 8.321461131708503 |
| 2026-02-28T11:08:07+08:00 | 8.331307360359812 |
| 2026-02-28T11:08:19+08:00 | 8.336230474685468 |
| 2026-02-28T11:08:38+08:00 | 8.548957636905124 |
| 2026-02-28T14:21:44+08:00 | 8.573451650154986 |
| 2026-02-28T14:22:40+08:00 | 8.574728013128304 |
| 2026-02-28T14:24:52+08:00 | 8.620920196924573 |
| 2026-02-28T14:25:13+08:00 | 8.630827204765088 |
| 2026-02-28T14:25:22+08:00 | 8.632042788549201 |
| 2026-02-28T14:26:18+08:00 | 8.729289491278186 |
| 2026-02-28T14:26:36+08:00 | 8.796146599404365 |
| 2026-02-28T18:05:00+08:00 | 8.79426244453899 |
| 2026-02-28T18:06:10+08:00 | 8.80994347535404 |
| 2026-02-28T18:07:12+08:00 | 9.331003464413785 |
| 2026-02-28T18:07:47+08:00 | 9.316051783869204 |
| 2026-02-28T18:11:29+08:00 | 9.364675135233696 |
| 2026-02-28T18:11:46+08:00 | 9.370753054154257 |
| 2026-02-28T20:37:53+08:00 | 9.372333313073604 |
| 2026-02-28T20:40:19+08:00 | 9.382726554427764 |
| 2026-02-28T20:40:41+08:00 | 9.378046556858932 |
| 2026-02-28T20:40:46+08:00 | 9.383212787941408 |
| 2026-02-28T20:41:20+08:00 | 9.401446544703093 |
| 2026-02-28T20:41:44+08:00 | 9.42575822038534 |
| 2026-02-28T22:03:17+08:00 | 9.416398225247676 |
| 2026-02-28T22:03:23+08:00 | 9.417492250653376 |
| 2026-02-28T22:04:02+08:00 | 9.394943171458094 |
| 2026-02-28T22:04:16+08:00 | 9.406612775785572 |
| 2026-03-01T08:53:39+08:00 | 9.408253813894122 |
| 2026-03-01T08:53:59+08:00 | 9.410259527137908 |
| 2026-03-01T08:54:31+08:00 | 9.392025770376224 |
| 2026-03-01T09:00:08+08:00 | 9.393545250106364 |
| 2026-03-01T09:02:50+08:00 | 9.393606029295569 |
| 2026-03-01T09:04:07+08:00 | 9.353734881176685 |
| 2026-03-01T09:05:13+08:00 | 9.354585789825563 |
| 2026-03-01T09:05:43+08:00 | 9.403209141190057 |
| 2026-03-01T12:01:09+08:00 | 9.426366012277397 |
| 2026-03-01T12:01:44+08:00 | 9.443323406065764 |
| 2026-03-01T12:02:31+08:00 | 9.461557162827448 |
| 2026-03-01T12:02:36+08:00 | 9.441378472011184 |
| 2026-03-01T12:02:41+08:00 | 9.453655868230717 |
| 2026-03-01T12:17:15+08:00 | 9.453959764176746 |
| 2026-03-01T12:18:05+08:00 | 9.456087035798943 |
| 2026-03-01T12:19:04+08:00 | 9.352762414149396 |
| 2026-03-01T12:19:08+08:00 | 9.29198322494378 |
| 2026-03-01T12:19:12+08:00 | 9.377074089831641 |
| 2026-03-01T12:21:32+08:00 | 9.397799793350757 |
| 2026-03-01T12:21:41+08:00 | 9.392268887133046 |
| 2026-03-01T18:05:49+08:00 | 9.392512003889868 |
| 2026-03-01T18:05:52+08:00 | 9.393606029295569 |
| 2026-03-01T18:05:56+08:00 | 9.393484470917159 |
| 2026-03-01T18:06:00+08:00 | 9.362183188476266 |
| 2026-03-01T18:06:04+08:00 | 9.372637209019631 |
| 2026-03-01T18:06:07+08:00 | 9.372697988208838 |
| 2026-03-01T18:08:29+08:00 | 9.373123442533277 |
| 2026-03-01T18:08:33+08:00 | 9.360906825502948 |
| 2026-03-01T18:08:37+08:00 | 9.344982677931077 |
| 2026-03-01T18:10:23+08:00 | 9.347656962256124 |
| 2026-03-01T18:10:27+08:00 | 9.347960858202152 |
| 2026-03-01T18:10:31+08:00 | 9.348203974958974 |
| 2026-03-01T18:10:35+08:00 | 9.408132255515712 |
| 2026-03-01T18:10:38+08:00 | 9.409043943353796 |
| 2026-03-01T18:10:43+08:00 | 9.411049656597582 |
| 2026-03-01T18:14:11+08:00 | 9.411596669300431 |
| 2026-03-01T18:14:15+08:00 | 9.412933811462954 |
| 2026-03-01T18:14:19+08:00 | 9.4134200449766 |
| 2026-03-01T18:14:23+08:00 | 9.420713547681274 |
| 2026-03-01T18:14:26+08:00 | 9.422354585789826 |
| 2026-03-01T18:14:31+08:00 | 9.423691727952349 |
| 2026-03-01T18:17:52+08:00 | 9.435847565793472 |
| 2026-03-01T18:17:58+08:00 | 9.448003403634596 |
| 2026-03-01T18:18:02+08:00 | 9.429769646872911 |
| 2026-03-01T20:16:19+08:00 | 9.431653801738285 |
| 2026-03-01T20:17:20+08:00 | 9.442047043092446 |
| 2026-03-01T20:17:35+08:00 | 9.442472497416885 |
| 2026-03-01T20:19:04+08:00 | 9.442776393362912 |
| 2026-03-01T20:20:09+08:00 | 9.43700237038838 |
| 2026-03-01T22:37:51+08:00 | 9.412690694706132 |
| 2026-03-01T22:38:02+08:00 | 9.40053485686501 |
| 2026-03-01T22:39:05+08:00 | 9.400838752811037 |
| 2026-03-01T22:40:18+08:00 | 9.401264207135476 |
| 2026-03-01T22:40:35+08:00 | 9.408861605786178 |
| 2026-03-01T22:41:56+08:00 | 9.399683948216131 |
| 2026-03-01T22:42:04+08:00 | 9.399744727405336 |
| 2026-03-02T08:41:29+08:00 | 9.452744180392633 |
| 2026-03-02T08:43:16+08:00 | 9.47705585607488 |
| 2026-03-02T08:44:13+08:00 | 9.486111955266518 |
| 2026-03-02T08:44:16+08:00 | 9.548957636905124 |
| 2026-03-02T08:44:53+08:00 | 9.548957636905124 |
| 2026-03-02T09:04:12+08:00 | 9.585485929617699 |
| 2026-03-02T09:05:31+08:00 | 9.600498389351486 |
| 2026-03-02T09:05:56+08:00 | 9.636236552604387 |
| 2026-03-02T09:06:21+08:00 | 9.64231447152495 |
| 2026-03-02T09:06:55+08:00 | 9.644441743147146 |
| 2026-03-02T09:08:00+08:00 | 9.719139366680848 |
| 2026-03-02T09:29:44+08:00 | 9.752567920743937 |
| 2026-03-02T10:15:59+08:00 | 9.738892603172674 |
| 2026-03-02T10:16:19+08:00 | 9.92487692214186 |
| 2026-03-02T10:16:48+08:00 | 10.113292408679268 |
| 2026-03-02T10:17:58+08:00 | 10.124536558682307 |
| 2026-03-02T10:18:47+08:00 | 10.133774995441561 |
| 2026-03-02T11:08:34+08:00 | 10.147571871391236 |
| 2026-03-02T11:09:00+08:00 | 10.149638363824227 |
| 2026-03-02T11:09:18+08:00 | 10.12866954354829 |
| 2026-03-02T11:09:47+08:00 | 10.031422840819303 |
| 2026-03-02T11:10:39+08:00 | 10.035920500820518 |
| 2026-03-02T12:05:05+08:00 | 10.04047894001094 |
| 2026-03-02T12:05:36+08:00 | 10.041816082173463 |
| 2026-03-02T12:06:35+08:00 | 9.57533580502036 |
| 2026-03-02T12:06:51+08:00 | 9.540144654470309 |
| 2026-03-02T12:07:19+08:00 | 9.661703032881542 |
| 2026-03-02T13:47:50+08:00 | 9.663222512611682 |
| 2026-03-02T13:48:16+08:00 | 9.664377317206588 |
| 2026-03-02T13:48:49+08:00 | 9.666261472071962 |
| 2026-03-02T13:49:11+08:00 | 9.667902510180514 |
| 2026-03-02T13:49:42+08:00 | 9.813772564273993 |
| 2026-03-02T14:03:43+08:00 | 9.814805810490489 |
| 2026-03-02T14:04:05+08:00 | 9.81991126238376 |
| 2026-03-02T14:04:55+08:00 | 9.831216191576004 |
| 2026-03-02T14:05:24+08:00 | 9.873761624019936 |
| 2026-03-02T14:06:09+08:00 | 9.880751230778582 |
| 2026-03-02T14:10:32+08:00 | 9.931319516197654 |
| 2026-03-02T14:42:37+08:00 | 10.356773840636967 |
| 2026-03-02T15:10:43+08:00 | 10.385826293077251 |
| 2026-03-02T15:10:58+08:00 | 10.414757187139124 |
| 2026-03-02T15:11:24+08:00 | 10.487692214185863 |
| 2026-03-02T15:11:56+08:00 | 10.439433537956603 |
| 2026-03-02T15:12:45+08:00 | 10.442411718227678 |
| 2026-03-02T16:15:14+08:00 | 10.438035616604875 |
| 2026-03-02T16:16:25+08:00 | 10.438461070929314 |
| 2026-03-02T16:16:50+08:00 | 10.449279766607914 |
| 2026-03-02T16:17:37+08:00 | 10.450191454445998 |
| 2026-03-02T16:18:30+08:00 | 10.517048562572175 |
| 2026-03-02T17:03:54+08:00 | 10.498450130675257 |
| 2026-03-02T17:04:39+08:00 | 10.505682854190725 |
| 2026-03-02T17:05:08+08:00 | 10.510666747705585 |
| 2026-03-02T17:05:36+08:00 | 10.44988755849997 |
| 2026-03-02T17:55:40+08:00 | 10.82671853157479 |
| 2026-03-02T18:12:12+08:00 | 10.827873336169695 |
| 2026-03-02T18:12:49+08:00 | 10.84805202698596 |
| 2026-03-02T18:13:38+08:00 | 10.848355922931988 |
| 2026-03-02T18:13:48+08:00 | 10.810125812921656 |
| 2026-03-02T18:14:06+08:00 | 10.797969975080532 |
| 2026-03-02T18:16:21+08:00 | 10.83072995806236 |
| 2026-03-02T20:20:51+08:00 | 10.831337749954416 |
| 2026-03-02T20:21:41+08:00 | 10.832614112927734 |
| 2026-03-02T20:22:23+08:00 | 10.826232298061145 |
| 2026-03-02T20:23:02+08:00 | 10.826353856439555 |
| 2026-03-02T20:24:11+08:00 | 10.820275937518993 |
| 2026-03-02T22:04:52+08:00 | 10.82045827508661 |
| 2026-03-02T22:05:14+08:00 | 10.80909256670516 |
| 2026-03-02T22:06:10+08:00 | 10.822220871573574 |
| 2026-03-02T22:07:06+08:00 | 10.889077979699751 |
| 2026-03-02T22:07:23+08:00 | 10.883000060779189 |
| 2026-03-03T08:38:43+08:00 | 10.891083692943536 |
| 2026-03-03T08:38:49+08:00 | 10.898681091594238 |
| 2026-03-03T08:38:52+08:00 | 10.947000547012703 |
| 2026-03-03T08:40:00+08:00 | 11.335987357928646 |
| 2026-03-03T08:41:41+08:00 | 11.335987357928646 |
| 2026-03-03T09:00:37+08:00 | 11.399258493891692 |
| 2026-03-03T09:01:32+08:00 | 11.43712392876679 |
| 2026-03-03T09:03:54+08:00 | 11.53582933203671 |
| 2026-03-03T09:05:41+08:00 | 11.544399197714702 |
| 2026-03-03T09:06:09+08:00 | 11.630097854494622 |
| 2026-03-03T09:06:33+08:00 | 11.684799124779676 |
| 2026-03-03T09:28:07+08:00 | 11.715188719382484 |
| 2026-03-03T10:01:34+08:00 | 11.728438582629307 |
| 2026-03-03T10:02:34+08:00 | 11.733361696954963 |
| 2026-03-03T10:04:49+08:00 | 11.733969488847018 |
| 2026-03-03T10:05:29+08:00 | 11.73506351425272 |
| 2026-03-03T10:06:54+08:00 | 11.564881784476995 |
| 2026-03-03T11:10:15+08:00 | 11.56482100528779 |
| 2026-03-03T11:10:45+08:00 | 11.60292955691971 |
| 2026-03-03T11:11:13+08:00 | 11.63939707044308 |
| 2026-03-03T11:11:49+08:00 | 11.656536801799064 |
| 2026-03-03T11:12:21+08:00 | 11.66462043396341 |
| 2026-03-03T12:02:19+08:00 | 11.667477055856075 |
| 2026-03-03T12:02:40+08:00 | 11.667598614234485 |
| 2026-03-03T12:04:01+08:00 | 11.742478575335806 |
| 2026-03-03T12:04:32+08:00 | 11.745639093174496 |
| 2026-03-03T12:05:34+08:00 | 11.690937822889442 |
| 2026-03-03T13:47:10+08:00 | 11.688263538564396 |
| 2026-03-03T13:47:31+08:00 | 11.745031301282442 |
| 2026-03-03T13:48:02+08:00 | 11.890901355375918 |
| 2026-03-03T13:49:32+08:00 | 11.895338236187929 |
| 2026-03-03T13:49:55+08:00 | 11.897040053485686 |
| 2026-03-03T14:01:01+08:00 | 11.888895642132134 |
| 2026-03-03T14:01:46+08:00 | 11.90323953078466 |
| 2026-03-03T14:03:27+08:00 | 11.426548349845014 |
| 2026-03-03T14:05:31+08:00 | 11.427520816872303 |
| 2026-03-03T14:05:54+08:00 | 11.542393484470917 |
| 2026-03-03T14:06:24+08:00 | 11.505925970947548 |
| 2026-03-03T15:11:30+08:00 | 11.507080775542454 |
| 2026-03-03T15:12:06+08:00 | 11.511943110678903 |
| 2026-03-03T15:14:17+08:00 | 11.480581049048805 |
| 2026-03-03T15:14:42+08:00 | 11.46234729228712 |
| 2026-03-03T16:04:06+08:00 | 11.462468850665532 |
| 2026-03-03T16:04:42+08:00 | 11.483620008509087 |
| 2026-03-03T16:07:18+08:00 | 11.49577584635021 |
| 2026-03-03T17:13:50+08:00 | 11.497477663647967 |
| 2026-03-03T17:15:14+08:00 | 11.488786239591564 |
| 2026-03-03T17:15:31+08:00 | 11.640734212605604 |
| 2026-03-03T17:47:51+08:00 | 13.160213942746005 |
| 2026-03-03T18:04:23+08:00 | 13.361940071719443 |
| 2026-03-03T18:06:59+08:00 | 13.362487084422293 |
| 2026-03-03T18:07:36+08:00 | 13.238375980064426 |
| 2026-03-03T18:08:02+08:00 | 13.29307725034948 |
| 2026-03-03T20:16:26+08:00 | 13.293745821430742 |
| 2026-03-03T20:19:57+08:00 | 13.34188293928159 |
| 2026-03-03T20:20:25+08:00 | 13.335805020361029 |
| 2026-03-03T22:07:42+08:00 | 13.336108916307056 |
| 2026-03-03T22:08:32+08:00 | 13.308636722786119 |
| 2026-03-03T22:10:22+08:00 | 13.27824712818331 |
| 2026-03-04T08:46:20+08:00 | 13.262019084665411 |
| 2026-03-04T08:46:23+08:00 | 13.274904272777 |
| 2026-03-04T08:48:04+08:00 | 13.274904272777 |
| 2026-03-04T08:48:47+08:00 | 13.785449462104175 |
| 2026-03-04T09:10:26+08:00 | 13.88840940861849 |
| 2026-03-04T09:11:16+08:00 | 14.016045705950283 |
| 2026-03-04T09:13:20+08:00 | 14.38983771956482 |
| 2026-03-04T10:14:32+08:00 | 14.396948884701878 |
| 2026-03-04T10:15:07+08:00 | 14.433416398225248 |
| 2026-03-04T11:04:09+08:00 | 12.366923965234303 |
| 2026-03-04T16:55:43+08:00 | 12.65 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|
| 时间 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|
以实际认购倍数 19.67x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.609, 乙组 α=0.709) 为基准，对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数
| 申购手数 | 认购金额(HKD) | 实际期望中签 | 预测期望中签 | 偏差 |
|---|
埃斯顿中签预测矩阵行为申购档位，列为不同认购倍数，数值为期望中签手数，绿色背景表示稳中（≥1手）
机制B
《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%，不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%（因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者，基石投资者除外）。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益，自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。
α 为发行人分配偏好系数，描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。
本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致：中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径，与其他网站可能使用的不同定义（如「申购人数中签比例」）有本质区别。
期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数
例：某档位获配总股数 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本页展示 埃斯顿（02715）的中签预测：基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导，公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数；其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准，再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准；随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权；临近截止（进度约九成后）默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 356 只 IPO 的 10897 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配，估计各申购档位的期望中签手数，并结合分配手法系数 α（人均分配至比例分配）给出区间。
数据来源：港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告；孖展数据（孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细）来自捷利交易宝（TradeGo），倍数仅覆盖已上报券商，捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新；中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。
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