海光芯正 01191中籤預測

海光芯正(01191)中籤預測
發售機制: 机制B | 最低申購: HK$5,700  |  公開發售手數: 甲組 13,431手 / 乙組 13,432手  |  招股價: HK$114.00  |  每手: 50股  |  公開發售募資: HK$1.53億
1x6530.0x
近期首日表現
+4.6%
→
參與人數
19,874
→
人均手數
66.9
→
認購倍數
50x
50x = 19,874 × 66.9 ÷ 26,863 孖展加權 100% → 874.1x
孖展動態 · 2026-06-24 11:24 孖展倍數672.4x 孖展資金1029.6億 捷利預測倍數874.13x
排名 券商 孖展資金
1 富途证券富途 609.8億
2 辉立证券辉立 165.0億
3 老虎国际老虎 99.2億
4 华泰国际华泰 49.5億
5 信诚证券信诚 20.0億
6 盈立证券盈立 19.2億
7 致富证券致富 15.7億
8 华盛证券华盛 13.0億
9 复星国际复星 12.4億
孖展倍數
時間倍數
2026-06-18T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-18T10:08:57+08:000.003853187042842215
2026-06-18T10:09:03+08:000.015804597701149427
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2026-06-18T11:23:41+08:000.06844305120167189
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2026-06-18T12:16:47+08:000.45820271682340646
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捷利預測倍數
時間倍數
券商孖展資金走勢
時間券商孖展資金
甲組 α=
分配手法係數 α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.55
乙組 α=
分配手法係數 α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.65
此模型不適用分配手法調節

實際 vs 預測 對比

以實際認購倍數 1296.89x 和當前分配手法 (甲組 α=0.546, 乙組 α=0.646) 為基準,對比各檔位的實際與預測期望中籤手數

申購手數 認購金額(HKD) 實際期望中籤 預測期望中籤 偏差

Logo海光芯正中籤預測矩陣

行為申購檔位,列為不同認購倍數,數值為期望中籤手數,綠色背景表示穩中(≥1手)

甲組

認購倍數
874.1x
分配手法
α=
分配手法係數 α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.55

乙組

認購倍數
874.1x
分配手法
α=
分配手法係數 α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.65
發售機制說明

机制B

《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%,不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%(因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者,基石投资者除外)。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益,自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。

分配手法係數 α

α 為發行人分配偏好係數,描述發行人對不同申購規模的分配傾向。α 取值範圍 [0, 1]。

  • α → 0:人均分配——無論申購多少手,每位中籤者獲配股數相同。對散戶(小單申購)更有利。
  • α → 1:比例分配——獲配股數與申購手數成正比。對大額申購更有利。
  • 歷史實際 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3–0.9,乙組 0.4–1.0。不同IPO的α值差異較大,反映發行人各自的分配策略。
中籤率定義

本頁面的「中籤率」定義與港交所配發結果公告完全一致:中籤率 = 該檔位獲配股份總數 ÷ 該檔位有效申請股份總數 × 100%。此為港交所官方口徑,與其他網站可能使用的不同定義(如「申購人數中籤比例」)有本質區別。

期望中籤手數

期望中籤手數 = 該檔位獲配總股數 ÷ 每手股數 ÷ 該檔位申購人數

例:某檔位獲配總股數 50,000 股,每手 100 股,申購人數 500 人 → 期望中籤手數 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。

// 關於本頁 //

本頁展示 海光芯正(01191)的中籤預測:基於相似 IPO 匹配的期望中籤率、甲乙組資金效率對比。
默認認購倍數按「近期首日表現 → 參與人數 → 人均手數 → 認購倍數」鏈條推導,公式為 認購倍數 = 參與人數 × 人均手數 ÷ 公開發售手數;其中參與人數與人均手數以近期 IPO 的中位數為基準,再按發行規模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢價、行業、併發 IPO、保薦人歷史表現與恒指近期走勢等特徵調節。
認購窗口前期默認倍數以模型推導為準;隨認購進度推進逐步結合孖展倍數加權;臨近截止(進度約九成後)默認倍數以孖展倍數預測為準。
中籤率預測基於歷史 356 隻 IPO 的 10897 條配發檔位數據做迴歸擬合與 KNN 相似匹配,估計各申購檔位的期望中籤手數,並結合分配手法係數 α(人均分配至比例分配)給出區間。
數據來源:港交所披露易平台公開發售配發結果公告、招股說明書、FINI 平台公告;孖展數據(孖展倍數、捷利預測倍數及券商明細)來自捷利交易寶(TradeGo),倍數僅覆蓋已上報券商,捷利預測倍數為全市場外推值。
孖展倍數盤中實時更新;中籤率預測模型隨新股配發數據入庫不定期迭代。

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Cibo — 港股IPO中籤率預測、中籤畫像與入通分析