Margin dynamics Margin multiple0.0x Margin funds2410K TradeGo forecast multiple0.01x
Rank Broker Margin funds
1 老虎国际老虎 1310K
2 盈立证券盈立 910K
3 富途证券富途 110K
4 艾德证券艾德 110K
Margin multiple
TimeMultiple
2026-10-31T06:00:00+08:000
2026-11-02T10:07:58+08:000.000963623223319682
2026-11-02T10:10:12+08:000.003854492893278728
2026-11-02T10:13:18+08:000.0
2026-11-02T11:05:36+08:000.005299927728258251
2026-11-02T11:07:36+08:000.0055408335340881715
2026-11-02T11:08:20+08:000.0
TradeGo forecast multiple
TimeMultiple
2026-10-31T06:00:00+08:000
2026-11-02T10:13:18+08:000.0
2026-11-02T11:08:20+08:000.01
Broker margin funds trend
TimeBrokerMargin funds
2026-10-31T06:00:00+08:00老虎国际0
2026-11-02T10:10:12+08:00老虎国际120000.0
2026-11-02T10:13:18+08:00老虎国际120000.0
2026-11-02T11:07:36+08:00老虎国际130000.0
2026-11-02T11:08:20+08:00老虎国际130000.0
2026-10-31T06:00:00+08:00盈立证券0
2026-11-02T10:07:58+08:00盈立证券40000.0
2026-11-02T10:13:18+08:00盈立证券40000.0
2026-11-02T11:05:36+08:00盈立证券90000.0
2026-11-02T11:08:20+08:00盈立证券90000.0
2026-10-31T06:00:00+08:00富途证券0
2026-11-02T11:08:20+08:00富途证券10000.0
2026-10-31T06:00:00+08:00艾德证券0
2026-11-02T10:13:18+08:00艾德证券10000.0
2026-11-02T11:08:20+08:00艾德证券10000.0
Prediction Model 1-Lot Expected Lots— Lots for expected 1-lot allotment—
Multiple derivation
Recent first-day return
0.0%
→
Participants
23,412
→
Avg lots
33.6
→
Oversubscription
110x
110x = 23,412 × 33.6 ÷ 7,169 Robot
1x24091.0x
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.59
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.69
This model does not support allocation strategy adjustment

LogoAMICRO Allotment Prediction Matrix

Rows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates expected ≥1 lot. Non-preset multiples are interpolated from the nearest grid points.

Offering Mechanism

18C

HKEX Listing Rule Chapter 18C for specialist technology companies. Mechanisms A and B do not apply. Initial allocation 5%, with clawback: 10x to below 50x → 10%, 50x or above → 20%. At least 50% of total offering shares must be taken up by independent pricing investors in the placing tranche.

Allocation Strategy Coefficient α

α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].

  • α → 0: Per-capita allocation — regardless of lots subscribed, every allottee receives the same number of shares. More favorable to retail (small) applications.
  • α → 1: Proportional allocation — allotted shares are proportional to lots subscribed. More favorable to large applications.
  • Historical actual α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0. α varies widely across IPOs, reflecting each issuer's allocation strategy.
Allotment Rate Definition

The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").

Expected Allotment Lots

Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier

Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.

About this page

This page shows expected-lot forecasts for AMICRO (02065): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 11369 allotment-tier records across 288 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation). How allotment rates and clawback work is explained in How Hong Kong IPO Allotment Rates Work.
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.

Cibo — HK IPO Allotment Forecasts, Allottee Profiling & Stock Connect