Oversubscription Backtest
Allotment Backtest
Data as of 2026-09-22 · Sample covers stocks listed in 2025 and later
Error by Oversubscription Bucket
| Oversubscription Range |
Stocks |
Oversub Median Error |
| 0–10x |
16 |
1067.7% |
| 10–50x |
22 |
354.5% |
| 50–200x |
37 |
93.5% |
| 200–1000x |
42 |
84.2% |
| 1000x+ |
97 |
56.2% |
Error by Listing Year
| Listing Year |
Stocks |
Oversub Median Error |
| 2025 |
104 |
82.4% |
| 2026 |
110 |
72.6% |
Per-stock Predicted Multiple Error
| Code |
Name |
Listed |
Predicted |
Actual Multiple |
Error |
| 09856 |
Ligent |
2026-09-22 |
15 |
35.2 |
57.3% |
| 06727 |
Transwarp |
2026-09-21 |
123 |
73.9 |
66.5% |
| 03231 |
Excelland Robot |
2026-09-09 |
1221 |
140.0 |
772.0% |
| 09976 |
Longsys |
2026-09-08 |
153 |
40.3 |
279.5% |
| 02041 |
Medcaptain |
2026-09-07 |
987 |
436.4 |
126.2% |
| 00625 |
Shein-W |
2026-09-01 |
33 |
5.6 |
486.1% |
| 09615 |
Mech-Mind Robot |
2026-09-01 |
747 |
3835.4 |
80.5% |
| 03223 |
Ingenic |
2026-08-25 |
120 |
927.4 |
87.1% |
| 02261 |
Nasn Tech |
2026-08-07 |
455 |
2513.5 |
81.9% |
| 03308 |
ZJ Innolight |
2026-07-30 |
16 |
16.8 |
5.0% |
| 02249 |
Nexchip |
2026-07-10 |
41 |
344.3 |
88.1% |
| 06745 |
Befar Group |
2026-07-10 |
219 |
227.6 |
3.8% |
| 00537 |
Rigol |
2026-07-09 |
454 |
356.9 |
27.2% |
| 01377 |
Dtech |
2026-07-09 |
430 |
354.6 |
21.2% |
| 01770 |
Dke |
2026-07-09 |
2830 |
1067.5 |
165.1% |
| 02475 |
Luxshare Ict |
2026-07-09 |
22 |
3.8 |
482.0% |
| 02797 |
Qiyunshan Food |
2026-07-09 |
2450 |
1688.1 |
45.1% |
| 03752 |
Rokae Robotics |
2026-07-09 |
2466 |
156.6 |
1474.9% |
| 06951 |
CCTC |
2026-07-09 |
52 |
327.5 |
84.1% |
| 06880 |
Momenta-W |
2026-07-08 |
286 |
413.6 |
30.9% |
| 07656 |
Reconova |
2026-07-08 |
3901 |
3646.1 |
7.0% |
| 07687 |
Eacon |
2026-07-08 |
657 |
157.8 |
316.3% |
| 08090 |
Baogai |
2026-07-08 |
4664 |
3015.7 |
54.7% |
| 09971 |
Basicsemi |
2026-07-08 |
4420 |
4812.7 |
8.2% |
| 02667 |
Tongrentangcare |
2026-07-07 |
1511 |
2.8 |
53104.2% |
| 00668 |
Anker |
2026-07-02 |
146 |
27.6 |
429.6% |
| 02697 |
TH Medical-B |
2026-06-30 |
2416 |
1790.4 |
34.9% |
| 03952 |
Laifual |
2026-06-30 |
5535 |
4572.0 |
21.1% |
| 06715 |
Xunlong Scitech |
2026-06-30 |
1367 |
2134.8 |
36.0% |
| 06915 |
Jiangxi Bio |
2026-06-30 |
3033 |
476.6 |
536.4% |
| 01191 |
Crealights |
2026-06-29 |
869 |
1296.9 |
33.0% |
| 02672 |
Baige Digital |
2026-06-29 |
2225 |
242.1 |
819.2% |
| 09637 |
Alebund-B |
2026-06-29 |
563 |
963.6 |
41.6% |
| 01688 |
Lingyi Itech |
2026-06-26 |
104 |
96.2 |
8.2% |
| 01956 |
Wenge AI |
2026-06-26 |
5750 |
5966.8 |
3.6% |
| 02272 |
Keytop Parking |
2026-06-26 |
2330 |
2115.2 |
10.2% |
| 03661 |
SG Micro |
2026-06-26 |
192 |
251.7 |
23.7% |
| 06228 |
Merdekagold-DRS |
2026-06-26 |
491 |
4.4 |
11008.6% |
| 09630 |
Cfmee |
2026-06-26 |
373 |
1007.2 |
63.0% |
| 02335 |
Micot Pharma-B |
2026-06-24 |
998 |
1032.9 |
3.4% |
| 06106 |
Seer Tech |
2026-06-24 |
6841 |
5934.6 |
15.3% |
| 06067 |
Senior Material |
2026-06-23 |
860 |
1563.2 |
45.0% |
| 06132 |
HJ Science-B |
2026-06-23 |
4156 |
2007.6 |
107.0% |
| 01392 |
HQVT |
2026-06-22 |
3347 |
7181.2 |
53.4% |
| 06675 |
Senasic |
2026-06-17 |
1660 |
5145.0 |
67.7% |
| 06658 |
Liuliumei |
2026-06-15 |
4461 |
6586.7 |
32.3% |
| 01081 |
Dajin |
2026-06-05 |
281 |
134.4 |
109.1% |
| 01779 |
Longbio-B |
2026-06-05 |
1264 |
4762.6 |
73.5% |
| 02290 |
Lung Fung Group |
2026-06-05 |
1645 |
664.9 |
147.4% |
| 02553 |
Shougang Lanza |
2026-06-03 |
2502 |
1421.5 |
76.0% |
| 03388 |
Creality |
2026-05-29 |
2280 |
3829.4 |
40.5% |
| 00901 |
SDMC |
2026-05-27 |
22608 |
1972.0 |
1046.5% |
| 02723 |
Deepzero |
2026-05-27 |
6713 |
5480.2 |
22.5% |
| 03310 |
Viewtrix Tech |
2026-05-27 |
4078 |
3559.7 |
14.6% |
| 06872 |
Tennor Therap-B |
2026-05-22 |
9002 |
9015.1 |
0.1% |
| 01511 |
Uisee Tech |
2026-05-20 |
9934 |
6777.3 |
46.6% |
| 07688 |
Topnc |
2026-05-20 |
1859 |
3764.6 |
50.6% |
| 06871 |
Robotphoenix |
2026-05-18 |
23114 |
14855.4 |
55.6% |
| 07630 |
Impact Therap-B |
2026-05-13 |
4223 |
2282.4 |
85.0% |
| 07666 |
Metis Techbio-P |
2026-05-13 |
4514 |
6911.0 |
34.7% |
| 01236 |
Ldrobot |
2026-05-11 |
3060 |
6707.7 |
54.4% |
| 01187 |
Cofoe Medical |
2026-05-06 |
2871 |
399.1 |
619.4% |
| 01609 |
Star Sports Med |
2026-05-05 |
3347 |
7823.1 |
57.2% |
| 06810 |
Sunmi Tech-W |
2026-04-29 |
2172 |
2003.2 |
8.4% |
| 01879 |
Xizhi Tech-P |
2026-04-28 |
1697 |
5784.7 |
70.7% |
| 02493 |
Mabwell-B |
2026-04-28 |
1093 |
481.7 |
126.9% |
| 03296 |
Huaqin |
2026-04-23 |
109 |
531.3 |
79.5% |
| 02476 |
VGT |
2026-04-21 |
114 |
431.1 |
73.6% |
| 00068 |
Manycore Tech |
2026-04-17 |
514 |
1590.6 |
67.7% |
| 03277 |
Gpixel |
2026-04-17 |
322 |
1138.2 |
71.7% |
| 06656 |
Sigenergy |
2026-04-17 |
863 |
1102.0 |
21.7% |
| 00664 |
Tongshifu |
2026-03-31 |
1983 |
59.5 |
3230.0% |
| 03625 |
Foursemi |
2026-03-31 |
2740 |
3118.4 |
12.1% |
| 01021 |
Huayan Robotics |
2026-03-30 |
1212 |
5059.4 |
76.0% |
| 02526 |
Diagens-B |
2026-03-30 |
621 |
1073.4 |
42.1% |
| 02726 |
Epiworld |
2026-03-30 |
272 |
50.7 |
436.9% |
| 06636 |
Extreme Vision |
2026-03-30 |
1444 |
4591.4 |
68.5% |
| 02632 |
New Vision Co |
2026-03-24 |
789 |
68.9 |
1045.3% |
| 02729 |
Galaxis Tech |
2026-03-24 |
1097 |
2153.3 |
49.1% |
| 02701 |
Nsing Tech |
2026-03-23 |
252 |
131.8 |
91.2% |
| 03355 |
Fs.com |
2026-03-23 |
459 |
1579.7 |
70.9% |
| 01989 |
Delton |
2026-03-20 |
141 |
1070.7 |
86.8% |
| 03268 |
Meig |
2026-03-10 |
328 |
174.1 |
88.4% |
| 02649 |
Alsco Pooling |
2026-03-09 |
3411 |
5297.2 |
35.6% |
| 02692 |
Zhaowei |
2026-03-09 |
285 |
1536.8 |
81.5% |
| 02715 |
Estun |
2026-03-09 |
364 |
19.7 |
1750.5% |
| 02706 |
Haizhi Tech GP |
2026-02-13 |
1334 |
5065.1 |
73.7% |
| 09981 |
Woer |
2026-02-13 |
80 |
569.6 |
86.0% |
| 00470 |
Wuxi Lead |
2026-02-11 |
97 |
79.5 |
22.0% |
| 00600 |
Axera |
2026-02-10 |
317 |
104.8 |
202.4% |
| 02720 |
Ridge Outdoor |
2026-02-10 |
4146 |
3654.2 |
13.5% |
| 06809 |
Montage Tech |
2026-02-09 |
111 |
707.3 |
84.3% |
| 02677 |
Distinct Health |
2026-02-06 |
2246 |
2730.7 |
17.8% |
| 02714 |
Muyuan |
2026-02-06 |
32 |
5.9 |
444.2% |
| 03200 |
Hans CNC |
2026-02-06 |
135 |
446.4 |
69.8% |
| 02768 |
Gon Technology |
2026-02-04 |
309 |
2251.8 |
86.3% |
| 09980 |
Eastroc |
2026-02-03 |
76 |
57.5 |
32.3% |
| 01768 |
Busyming |
2026-01-28 |
1042 |
1899.5 |
45.1% |
| 09611 |
Longcheer |
2026-01-22 |
189 |
1149.8 |
83.6% |
| 01641 |
HX Coldchain |
2026-01-13 |
3067 |
2309.2 |
32.8% |
| 03986 |
Gigadevice |
2026-01-13 |
114 |
542.2 |
79.0% |
| 08610 |
BBSB Intl |
2026-01-13 |
2422 |
10745.1 |
77.5% |
| 00501 |
Omnivision |
2026-01-12 |
50 |
9.3 |
438.8% |
| 00100 |
Minimax-W |
2026-01-09 |
162 |
1837.2 |
91.2% |
| 03636 |
Jinxun Resource |
2026-01-09 |
462 |
143.5 |
222.0% |
| 06938 |
Ribolife-B |
2026-01-09 |
431 |
101.1 |
326.5% |
| 02513 |
Z.ai |
2026-01-08 |
151 |
1159.5 |
87.0% |
| 02675 |
Edge Medical-B |
2026-01-08 |
139 |
1091.9 |
87.3% |
| 09903 |
Iluvatar Corex |
2026-01-08 |
110 |
10.7 |
930.0% |
| 06082 |
Biren Tech |
2026-01-02 |
77 |
2347.5 |
96.7% |
| 02657 |
Forest Cabin |
2025-12-30 |
474 |
1235.8 |
61.6% |
| 02671 |
Usas Building |
2025-12-30 |
2588 |
146.2 |
1669.6% |
| 03317 |
Xunce |
2025-12-30 |
541 |
7.2 |
7372.4% |
| 03696 |
Insilico |
2025-12-30 |
434 |
1427.4 |
69.6% |
| 06651 |
51World |
2025-12-30 |
1702 |
256.0 |
564.8% |
| 02635 |
Nuobikan |
2025-12-23 |
1273 |
188.7 |
574.5% |
| 02661 |
Qingsong Health |
2025-12-23 |
724 |
1421.5 |
49.1% |
| 03378 |
Hanxbio-B |
2025-12-23 |
351 |
3074.1 |
88.6% |
| 02396 |
B&K Corp-B |
2025-12-22 |
1888 |
792.0 |
138.4% |
| 02581 |
Benq Holding |
2025-12-22 |
1326 |
6.3 |
21014.6% |
| 02691 |
Nanhua Futures |
2025-12-22 |
402 |
1.9 |
20947.1% |
| 02546 |
Zhihui Mining |
2025-12-19 |
1199 |
5248.1 |
77.2% |
| 03881 |
Cidi |
2025-12-19 |
1173 |
22.6 |
5101.8% |
| 03887 |
Hashkey HLDGS |
2025-12-17 |
421 |
393.7 |
6.9% |
| 02655 |
Guoxia Tech |
2025-12-16 |
510 |
1890.7 |
73.0% |
| 07618 |
JD Industrials |
2025-12-11 |
313 |
60.5 |
417.2% |
| 02659 |
Bao Pharma-B |
2025-12-10 |
975 |
3526.3 |
72.4% |
| 02676 |
Novosense |
2025-12-08 |
358 |
25.3 |
1313.3% |
| 02687 |
Able Digital |
2025-12-08 |
2441 |
4813.4 |
49.3% |
| 02408 |
Xiao Noodles |
2025-12-05 |
2097 |
426.0 |
392.3% |
| 02658 |
Tianyu Semi |
2025-12-05 |
1019 |
60.6 |
1580.7% |
| 02539 |
Lemo Services |
2025-12-03 |
5109 |
7324.3 |
30.2% |
| 02693 |
Jinyan Kaolin |
2025-12-03 |
2872 |
6876.2 |
58.2% |
| 09609 |
Haiwei Elec |
2025-11-28 |
1349 |
5426.3 |
75.1% |
| 02685 |
Quantgroup |
2025-11-27 |
1781 |
9366.3 |
81.0% |
| 02788 |
Chuangxin Ind |
2025-11-24 |
84 |
447.2 |
81.2% |
| 02579 |
CNGR |
2025-11-17 |
215 |
27.9 |
670.6% |
| 02698 |
Softcare |
2025-11-10 |
861 |
1813.8 |
52.5% |
| 00699 |
Joyson Elec |
2025-11-06 |
383 |
147.7 |
159.4% |
| 00800 |
Weride-W |
2025-11-06 |
1025 |
73.4 |
1295.7% |
| 02026 |
Pony-W |
2025-11-06 |
647 |
15.9 |
3974.3% |
| 02630 |
Vigonvita-B |
2025-11-06 |
5409 |
6238.4 |
13.3% |
| 09927 |
Seres |
2025-11-05 |
110 |
132.7 |
17.1% |
| 02718 |
Mininglamp-W |
2025-11-03 |
1952 |
4452.9 |
56.2% |
| 01384 |
Deepexi Tech |
2025-10-28 |
5728 |
7569.8 |
24.3% |
| 06031 |
Sany Heavy Ind |
2025-10-28 |
93 |
52.9 |
75.7% |
| 06166 |
Cig |
2025-10-28 |
136 |
338.7 |
59.8% |
| 06980 |
Bama Tea |
2025-10-28 |
4735 |
2680.0 |
76.7% |
| 00638 |
Fibocom |
2025-10-22 |
312 |
551.0 |
43.4% |
| 06687 |
JST Group |
2025-10-21 |
876 |
1953.0 |
55.1% |
| 02637 |
Haixi Pharma |
2025-10-20 |
2172 |
3165.1 |
31.4% |
| 02670 |
Yunji |
2025-10-16 |
11253 |
5657.2 |
98.9% |
| 02575 |
Xuanzhubio-B |
2025-10-15 |
2574 |
4908.3 |
47.6% |
| 02650 |
Zhida Tech |
2025-10-10 |
2302 |
5440.8 |
57.7% |
| 08549 |
Golden Leaf Int |
2025-10-09 |
20341 |
11464.7 |
77.4% |
| 02652 |
CF Pharmtech |
2025-10-08 |
4701 |
6697.8 |
29.8% |
| 02259 |
Zijin Gold Intl |
2025-09-30 |
118 |
240.7 |
51.0% |
| 02889 |
Pateo |
2025-09-29 |
1154 |
529.8 |
117.8% |
| 09973 |
Chery Auto |
2025-09-25 |
153 |
308.2 |
50.4% |
| 06090 |
Butong Group |
2025-09-23 |
3744 |
3317.5 |
12.9% |
| 02595 |
Genfleet-B |
2025-09-19 |
1886 |
2662.8 |
29.2% |
| 02656 |
160 Health |
2025-09-17 |
2934 |
751.8 |
290.3% |
| 02525 |
Hesai-W |
2025-09-16 |
849 |
168.7 |
403.4% |
| 02543 |
Dahon Tech |
2025-09-09 |
7404 |
7558.4 |
2.0% |
| 03858 |
Jiaxin Intl Res |
2025-08-28 |
2259 |
2041.6 |
10.6% |
| 06960 |
Shuangdeng |
2025-08-26 |
243 |
3876.2 |
93.7% |
| 02631 |
Sicc |
2025-08-20 |
189 |
2809.2 |
93.3% |
| 02591 |
Innogen-B |
2025-08-15 |
184 |
5341.7 |
96.6% |
| 02627 |
Ab&b Bio-Tech-B |
2025-08-11 |
217 |
4007.6 |
94.6% |
| 09887 |
Leads Biolabs-B |
2025-07-25 |
126 |
3494.8 |
96.4% |
| 01304 |
Fortior |
2025-07-09 |
48 |
138.3 |
65.3% |
| 02590 |
Geekplus-W |
2025-07-09 |
22 |
133.6 |
83.5% |
| 02597 |
Xunzhong |
2025-07-09 |
553 |
12.8 |
4223.7% |
| 06613 |
Lens |
2025-07-09 |
57 |
462.8 |
87.7% |
| 01828 |
FWD |
2025-07-07 |
29 |
37.1 |
21.9% |
| 02648 |
Anjoy Food |
2025-07-04 |
44 |
44.2 |
0.5% |
| 02592 |
Cloudbreak-B |
2025-07-03 |
51 |
78.8 |
35.3% |
| 03880 |
Medtide |
2025-06-30 |
86 |
301.1 |
71.4% |
| 09678 |
Unisound |
2025-06-30 |
158 |
91.7 |
72.4% |
| 02508 |
Saint Bella GP |
2025-06-26 |
73 |
193 |
62.2% |
| 06883 |
Eternal Beauty |
2025-06-26 |
201 |
35.8 |
460.8% |
| 02619 |
XJ Electrics |
2025-06-25 |
839 |
852.4 |
1.6% |
| 02643 |
Caocao Inc |
2025-06-25 |
54 |
21.1 |
155.4% |
| 02609 |
Bayzed Health |
2025-06-23 |
536 |
25.9 |
1967.9% |
| 03288 |
Haitian Flav |
2025-06-19 |
37 |
918.1 |
96.0% |
| 02605 |
Metalight |
2025-06-10 |
444 |
274.4 |
61.8% |
| 09881 |
Rongta Tech |
2025-06-10 |
2379 |
276.0 |
762.1% |
| 02621 |
Shouhui Group |
2025-05-30 |
3385 |
990 |
241.9% |
| 02565 |
Pegbio Co-B |
2025-05-27 |
845 |
743.8 |
13.6% |
| 02603 |
Jihong Co |
2025-05-27 |
606 |
49.4 |
1127.0% |
| 01276 |
Hengrui Pharma |
2025-05-23 |
11 |
454.9 |
97.6% |
| 02629 |
Mirxes-B |
2025-05-23 |
64 |
25.5 |
150.9% |
| 03750 |
Catl |
2025-05-20 |
7 |
15.2 |
53.9% |
| 06831 |
Green Tea Group |
2025-05-16 |
2 |
317.5 |
99.4% |
| 02589 |
Auntea Jenny |
2025-05-08 |
7 |
3616.8 |
99.8% |
| 02865 |
Drinda |
2025-05-08 |
37 |
3.5 |
957.1% |
| 01333 |
Breton |
2025-05-07 |
13 |
198.7 |
93.5% |
| 09606 |
Dualitybio-B |
2025-04-15 |
8 |
115.1 |
93.1% |
| 03677 |
Zenergy |
2025-04-14 |
56 |
3.5 |
1495.4% |
| 02625 |
Jiangsu Horizon |
2025-03-31 |
58 |
47.0 |
23.5% |
| 02569 |
Soft Intl |
2025-03-27 |
203 |
167.1 |
21.5% |
| 02610 |
Nanshan Al Intl |
2025-03-25 |
15 |
3.9 |
285.6% |
| 02561 |
Visen Pharma-B |
2025-03-21 |
18 |
72.6 |
75.2% |
| 06693 |
Chifeng Gold |
2025-03-10 |
21 |
9.5 |
120.4% |
| 02097 |
Mixue Group |
2025-03-03 |
15 |
5258.2 |
99.7% |
| 01364 |
Guming |
2025-02-12 |
7 |
194.9 |
96.4% |
| 02571 |
Saimo |
2025-01-15 |
34 |
2.7 |
1178.2% |
| 00805 |
New Gonow RV |
2025-01-13 |
1 |
2.5 |
60.3% |
| 02596 |
Yibin Bank |
2025-01-13 |
9 |
0.2 |
4185.7% |
| 00325 |
Bloks |
2025-01-10 |
5 |
6000.0 |
99.9% |
| 02530 |
Numans |
2025-01-10 |
16 |
65.2 |
75.4% |
| 02560 |
Conch Mat Tech |
2025-01-09 |
9 |
25.8 |
65.2% |
| 02613 |
Contiocean |
2025-01-09 |
4 |
55.3 |
92.8% |
| 06681 |
Brainaurora-B |
2025-01-08 |
18 |
11.4 |
58.0% |
Methodology
- The backtest is walk-forward: for each stock, the market regime (participation, mean lots, index, sponsor heat, first-day P&L) is anchored only on stocks listed before its own listing date, and the oversubscription level is calibrated the same way; the regression coefficients are fitted on the full history, matching production prediction.
- Strict out-of-sample check: re-fitting regression coefficients per stock (using only pre-listing samples rather than a single full-history fit) yields a median log error of 0.565 (≈3.7×) across 244 stocks, essentially matching the production 0.568 (delta 0.003), indicating no material look-ahead bias or in-sample overfitting.
About this page
This page publishes the backtest of cibo's oversubscription forecast. Walk-forward: for each of 214 listed HK IPOs, the multiple is predicted using only data visible before its listing date and compared with the realized multiple. It shows the median and P90 relative error, error by oversubscription bucket and by listing year, and per-stock predicted vs actual multiples. Data comes from the prediction_history table and covers stocks listed from 2025 onward.
Cibo — HK IPO Allotment Forecasts, Allottee Profiling & Stock Connect
