HK IPO Cross-Market Pattern Analysis
Based on AB-tier data from 336 stocks
Oversubscription, hit rates, clawback, IPO windows, and offer-period length
Pool A/B, mainland participation, cornerstones, sponsors, syndicate, greenshoe
Sub-industry profitability, IPO cap percentile, post-listing growth
Margin forecasts, grey-market linkage, mainland trend, FINI era
Boards, independent directors, interlocks, inclusion intervals, prediction error, A/H premium
Last 6 months (2026-03 ~ 2026-09) key metrics vs historical averages. Green = above historical, Red = below, Gray = similar. Direction does not imply better or worse.
Hot & Stable: Recent IPO returns are above historical averages with manageable volatility. Favorable environment for IPO participation.
1/3/6-month rolling averages of core IPO market indicators. Hot/cold classification uses the 6-month window. Data since 2010.
Current Temperature: 2026-05 ~ 2026-09 | Hot — 1/3/6-month rolling averages of core IPO
| Month | Avg Return | Win Rate | IPOs | Temperature |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09 | +65.33% | 68.2% | 88 | Hot |
| 2026-08 | +58.23% | 72.6% | 106 | Hot |
| 2026-07 | +55.66% | 74.6% | 126 | Hot |
| 2026-06 | +58.0% | 82.8% | 134 | Hot |
| 2026-05 | +48.26% | 75.8% | 161 | Hot |
| 2026-04 | +41.01% | 71.7% | 166 | Hot |
| 2026-03 | +40.68% | 71.7% | 173 | Hot |
| 2026-02 | +46.47% | 73.6% | 163 | Hot |
| 2026-01 | +51.85% | 74.2% | 151 | Hot |
| 2025-12 | +49.46% | 70.1% | 144 | Hot |
| 2025-11 | +48.7% | 75.6% | 123 | Hot |
| 2025-10 | +47.28% | 80.0% | 120 | Hot |
| 2025-09 | +36.38% | 78.2% | 101 | Hot |
| 2025-08 | +26.11% | 70.5% | 95 | Warm |
| 2025-07 | +15.03% | 65.5% | 87 | Warm |
| 2025-06 | +13.61% | 62.2% | 82 | Warm |
| 2025-05 | +11.21% | 68.1% | 72 | Warm |
| 2025-04 | +8.83% | 62.7% | 67 | Warm |
| 2025-03 | +3.59% | 57.7% | 78 | Cold |
| 2025-02 | +2.27% | 61.2% | 67 | Cold |
| 2025-01 | +2.08% | 63.4% | 71 | Cold |
| 2024-12 | -0.16% | 56.6% | 76 | Cold |
| 2024-11 | -0.53% | 46.0% | 74 | Cold |
| 2024-10 | +3.84% | 56.2% | 73 | Cold |
Annual standard deviation of first-day returns. High volatility means strong IPO performance divergence, low volatility indicates market consensus.
| Year | First-Day Std Dev | Grey Market Std Dev | IPOs | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ±81.25% | ±89.03% | 165 | High |
| 2025 | ±72.32% | ±74.67% | 226 | Normal |
| 2024 | ±36.27% | ±23.93% | 130 | Normal |
| 2023 | ±26.57% | ±25.59% | 124 | Normal |
| 2022 | ±39.96% | ±23.77% | 110 | Normal |
| 2021 | ±48.04% | ±33.74% | 90 | Normal |
| 2020 | ±52.58% | ±35.63% | 144 | Normal |
| 2019 | ±32.47% | ±24.91% | 161 | Normal |
| 2018 | ±51.68% | ±46.93% | 205 | Normal |
| 2017 | ±311.75% | ±24.36% | 158 | High |
| 2016 | ±434.04% | ±19.51% | 115 | High |
| 2015 | ±478.35% | ±13.51% | 118 | High |
| 2014 | ±134.78% | ±15.14% | 102 | High |
| 2013 | ±82.75% | ±14.63% | 79 | High |
| 2012 | ±13.63% | — | 45 | Low |
| 2011 | ±16.49% | — | 62 | Low |
| 2010 | ±18.31% | — | 74 | Low |
Distribution of first-day returns across all IPOs with available data. Helps understand the typical range of IPO outcomes and tail risks. Red = loss buckets, green = profit buckets.
Median total return from offer price when held to T+N trading days after listing, answering when to sell. N is a trading-day offset (T+0 = listing-day close).
No data
Annual IPO count, average first-day return, and win rate since 2010. Shows the bull/bear cycles of the HK IPO market. FINI platform launched Nov 2023, shortening settlement from T+5 to T+2.
| Year | IPO Count | Avg Return | Win Rate | Non-Negative % | Avg Oversub |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 74 | +7.56% | 62.2% | 66.2% | — |
| 2011 | 62 | +1.4% | 50.0% | 58.1% | — |
| 2012 | 45 | +4.58% | 55.6% | 73.3% | — |
| 2013 | 79 | +18.91% | 57.0% | 62.0% | — |
| 2014 | 102 | +51.75% | 64.7% | 68.6% | — |
| 2015 | 118 | +193.92% | 66.1% | 71.2% | — |
| 2016 | 115 | +214.92% | 73.9% | 83.5% | — |
| 2017 | 158 | +74.72% | 70.3% | 75.9% | — |
| 2018 | 205 | +15.83% | 58.0% | 67.3% | — |
| 2019 | 161 | +8.65% | 54.7% | 63.4% | — |
| 2020 | 144 | +18.19% | 60.4% | 66.7% | — |
| 2021 | 90 | +12.08% | 44.4% | 54.4% | — |
| 2022 | 110 | +8.37% | 41.8% | 67.3% | 0.5x |
| 2023 | 124 | +2.28% | 50.0% | 63.7% | 7.0x |
| 2024 | 130 | +6.09% | 57.7% | 62.3% | 335.0x |
| 2025 | 226 | +36.45% | 67.3% | 72.1% | 1728.8x |
| 2026 | 165 | +50.45% | 75.8% | 80.6% | 2045.4x |
IPO count, average first-day return, and win rate by calendar month. Reveals seasonal patterns in HK IPO market. December is typically the year-end IPO rush with highest volume; August is the summer lull with fewest IPOs but often higher returns.
| Month | IPO Count | Avg Return | Win Rate | Avg Oversub |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 210 | +58.85% | 69.0% | 909.5x |
| Feb | 87 | +50.14% | 70.1% | 1322.3x |
| Mar | 175 | +21.93% | 57.1% | 1010.1x |
| Apr | 98 | +72.48% | 65.3% | 932.1x |
| May | 134 | +42.82% | 69.4% | 1961.5x |
| Jun | 185 | +31.72% | 57.3% | 1204.7x |
| Jul | 294 | +18.21% | 56.8% | 512.9x |
| Aug | 55 | +115.91% | 54.5% | 2202.0x |
| Sep | 141 | +55.81% | 61.0% | 878.9x |
| Oct | 197 | +84.4% | 66.0% | 2501.6x |
| Nov | 198 | +46.78% | 59.1% | 1443.6x |
| Dec | 334 | +27.47% | 54.5% | 839.3x |
Quarterly Summary:
| Quarter | IPO Count | Avg Return | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | 472 | +43.55% | 64.8% |
| Q2 | 417 | +44.86% | 63.1% |
| Q3 | 490 | +40.0% | 57.8% |
| Q4 | 729 | +48.1% | 58.8% |
This page distills cross-IPO patterns from 336 stocks' Pool A/B data: market state (hot/cold), A/B tail-head gap, mainland participation by industry, and hit-rate ranking by industry. Data comes from allotment announcements and prospectus industry information.
