Fibocom 00638Expected Lots
Fibocom (00638) Expected Lots
| Rank | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
595.6100M |
| 2 |  辉立 |
198.0100M |
| 3 |  老虎 |
114.8100M |
| 4 |  耀才 |
85.0100M |
| 5 |  华泰 |
53.7100M |
| 6 |  招银 |
41.8100M |
| 8 |  华盛 |
15.1100M |
| 9 |  盈立 |
7.1100M |
| 10 |  长桥 |
6.8100M |
| 11 |  TradeGo |
6.8100M |
| 12 |  信诚 |
6.0100M |
| 13 | 卓锐证券 | 5.5100M |
| 14 | 第一上海 | 1.9100M |
| 15 |  盈宝 |
1.5100M |
| 16 |  艾德 |
692910K |
| 17 |  Funderstone |
101210K |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-14T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2025-10-14T10:03:54+08:00 | 0.006197706848466067 |
| 2025-10-14T10:04:42+08:00 | 0.19619185345866474 |
| 2025-10-14T10:06:17+08:00 | 0.2926006266570258 |
| 2025-10-14T11:03:29+08:00 | 0.30423854285025653 |
| 2025-10-14T11:03:43+08:00 | 0.4461660296801295 |
| 2025-10-14T11:03:48+08:00 | 0.4906173604655166 |
| 2025-10-14T11:05:35+08:00 | 1.4891367971628275 |
| 2025-10-14T12:00:57+08:00 | 1.520917260613573 |
| 2025-10-14T12:06:04+08:00 | 1.6984815618221258 |
| 2025-10-14T12:06:18+08:00 | 1.8184071893399443 |
| 2025-10-14T12:06:36+08:00 | 2.748063216609854 |
| 2025-10-14T13:45:38+08:00 | 2.752195021175498 |
| 2025-10-14T13:45:52+08:00 | 2.7882794477154564 |
| 2025-10-14T13:45:57+08:00 | 2.8354853148779395 |
| 2025-10-14T13:46:13+08:00 | 3.231449919085494 |
| 2025-10-14T13:48:50+08:00 | 3.3003133285128947 |
| 2025-10-14T14:04:52+08:00 | 3.3068553524084976 |
| 2025-10-14T14:05:17+08:00 | 3.501360052336191 |
| 2025-10-14T14:05:21+08:00 | 3.555762145783838 |
| 2025-10-14T14:05:36+08:00 | 3.6142960437971285 |
| 2025-10-14T14:06:23+08:00 | 4.686912509038322 |
| 2025-10-14T15:07:06+08:00 | 4.690458974623834 |
| 2025-10-14T15:07:29+08:00 | 4.729642254588025 |
| 2025-10-14T15:07:34+08:00 | 4.746548221602452 |
| 2025-10-14T15:07:46+08:00 | 5.428295974933719 |
| 2025-10-14T16:16:39+08:00 | 5.432427779499363 |
| 2025-10-14T16:17:21+08:00 | 5.663016905967014 |
| 2025-10-14T16:17:35+08:00 | 5.751127638329374 |
| 2025-10-14T16:17:56+08:00 | 6.1367627311228174 |
| 2025-10-14T17:08:24+08:00 | 6.141135557621458 |
| 2025-10-14T17:09:03+08:00 | 6.765210205557277 |
| 2025-10-14T17:09:12+08:00 | 6.861309093413215 |
| 2025-10-14T17:09:23+08:00 | 8.548462624384534 |
| 2025-10-14T17:35:47+08:00 | 8.703405295596186 |
| 2025-10-14T18:02:20+08:00 | 8.707812553799538 |
| 2025-10-14T18:03:17+08:00 | 8.866542712529697 |
| 2025-10-14T18:03:23+08:00 | 8.89894294666529 |
| 2025-10-14T18:06:44+08:00 | 9.728747030265469 |
| 2025-10-14T18:13:56+08:00 | 10.002995558310092 |
| 2025-10-14T20:42:20+08:00 | 10.209585786592294 |
| 2025-10-14T20:42:45+08:00 | 10.297042316565094 |
| 2025-10-14T20:42:56+08:00 | 10.437041627930999 |
| 2025-10-14T20:43:09+08:00 | 10.449678063560928 |
| 2025-10-14T20:43:20+08:00 | 10.70102950797094 |
| 2025-10-14T20:43:51+08:00 | 11.24918224701305 |
| 2025-10-14T20:43:56+08:00 | 11.321454395207107 |
| 2025-10-14T20:44:09+08:00 | 11.448851702647799 |
| 2025-10-14T22:08:56+08:00 | 11.495437799125435 |
| 2025-10-14T22:09:01+08:00 | 11.547911717109114 |
| 2025-10-14T22:09:12+08:00 | 11.964535344144888 |
| 2025-10-14T22:09:47+08:00 | 12.125847880728575 |
| 2025-10-14T22:09:57+08:00 | 12.459835416451469 |
| 2025-10-15T08:53:39+08:00 | 12.664910649726268 |
| 2025-10-15T08:53:56+08:00 | 12.664669627793272 |
| 2025-10-15T08:54:09+08:00 | 12.664669627793272 |
| 2025-10-15T08:54:15+08:00 | 12.664910649726268 |
| 2025-10-15T08:54:31+08:00 | 12.917432772096547 |
| 2025-10-15T08:54:42+08:00 | 17.82050752332748 |
| 2025-10-15T09:07:40+08:00 | 17.913817443101607 |
| 2025-10-15T09:08:06+08:00 | 17.996143649072067 |
| 2025-10-15T09:08:10+08:00 | 17.995661605206074 |
| 2025-10-15T09:08:13+08:00 | 18.098956719347175 |
| 2025-10-15T09:08:21+08:00 | 18.832352029748993 |
| 2025-10-15T09:09:59+08:00 | 19.16871535309713 |
| 2025-10-15T09:12:37+08:00 | 20.201666494508142 |
| 2025-10-15T10:14:55+08:00 | 20.203766828495677 |
| 2025-10-15T10:15:21+08:00 | 20.27803601556313 |
| 2025-10-15T10:15:35+08:00 | 20.27934442034225 |
| 2025-10-15T10:15:49+08:00 | 20.99208070791585 |
| 2025-10-15T11:02:48+08:00 | 21.429914265055263 |
| 2025-10-15T11:03:13+08:00 | 21.55197465826533 |
| 2025-10-15T11:03:18+08:00 | 21.681644458217125 |
| 2025-10-15T11:09:59+08:00 | 22.497675859931825 |
| 2025-10-15T12:13:37+08:00 | 22.515236029335814 |
| 2025-10-15T12:13:54+08:00 | 22.61550115346211 |
| 2025-10-15T12:13:59+08:00 | 22.689150569844713 |
| 2025-10-15T12:14:10+08:00 | 23.35023930034776 |
| 2025-10-15T13:43:08+08:00 | 23.24305340357401 |
| 2025-10-15T13:43:18+08:00 | 23.252384395551424 |
| 2025-10-15T13:43:37+08:00 | 23.593258272217057 |
| 2025-10-15T13:43:51+08:00 | 23.604104259201872 |
| 2025-10-15T14:09:58+08:00 | 23.673656302723547 |
| 2025-10-15T14:10:07+08:00 | 23.818028440588094 |
| 2025-10-15T14:10:22+08:00 | 23.884757084323244 |
| 2025-10-15T14:10:37+08:00 | 24.476982405398893 |
| 2025-10-15T14:11:12+08:00 | 25.097717177977483 |
| 2025-10-15T15:20:08+08:00 | 25.113934510897636 |
| 2025-10-15T15:20:36+08:00 | 25.281651344558068 |
| 2025-10-15T15:20:44+08:00 | 25.359122680163896 |
| 2025-10-15T15:21:31+08:00 | 26.91199256275178 |
| 2025-10-15T16:19:30+08:00 | 26.912199152980065 |
| 2025-10-15T16:19:52+08:00 | 28.36810935509417 |
| 2025-10-15T16:20:02+08:00 | 29.036084426539958 |
| 2025-10-15T16:20:11+08:00 | 29.112763832937368 |
| 2025-10-15T17:00:42+08:00 | 29.117584271597288 |
| 2025-10-15T17:07:24+08:00 | 32.989050717901044 |
| 2025-10-15T17:07:29+08:00 | 33.12564129050029 |
| 2025-10-15T17:07:39+08:00 | 35.92149571325276 |
| 2025-10-15T18:01:11+08:00 | 35.92190889370933 |
| 2025-10-15T18:01:19+08:00 | 44.37489240092277 |
| 2025-10-15T18:03:53+08:00 | 45.063526495196776 |
| 2025-10-15T18:04:18+08:00 | 46.286093034466134 |
| 2025-10-15T18:04:26+08:00 | 46.403780601177566 |
| 2025-10-15T18:06:35+08:00 | 65.2930138071136 |
| 2025-10-15T18:11:46+08:00 | 66.60837379058637 |
| 2025-10-15T18:13:43+08:00 | 68.3299590262714 |
| 2025-10-15T20:12:20+08:00 | 68.31553214199636 |
| 2025-10-15T20:12:47+08:00 | 69.15835140997831 |
| 2025-10-15T20:12:58+08:00 | 77.26357469958337 |
| 2025-10-15T20:13:24+08:00 | 78.00079192920842 |
| 2025-10-15T20:13:35+08:00 | 84.58069069999655 |
| 2025-10-15T22:08:48+08:00 | 85.77454119753469 |
| 2025-10-15T22:08:58+08:00 | 92.29590607030954 |
| 2025-10-15T22:09:25+08:00 | 94.03594669972111 |
| 2025-10-15T22:09:38+08:00 | 101.62469441862066 |
| 2025-10-16T07:36:38+08:00 | 102.42354439968322 |
| 2025-10-16T07:36:57+08:00 | 102.42354439968322 |
| 2025-10-16T07:37:06+08:00 | 102.42354439968322 |
| 2025-10-16T07:37:21+08:00 | 102.42340667286437 |
| 2025-10-16T08:38:49+08:00 | 104.33839479392624 |
| 2025-10-16T08:39:00+08:00 | 128.71259856075474 |
| 2025-10-16T09:11:57+08:00 | 128.74265743896981 |
| 2025-10-16T09:12:12+08:00 | 129.92621285679854 |
| 2025-10-16T09:12:17+08:00 | 129.9263161519127 |
| 2025-10-16T09:12:28+08:00 | 135.46982061081843 |
| 2025-10-16T09:13:10+08:00 | 140.55879213579865 |
| 2025-10-16T09:28:58+08:00 | 142.28037737148367 |
| 2025-10-16T10:20:17+08:00 | 142.8886822986606 |
| 2025-10-16T10:20:42+08:00 | 143.17501635505974 |
| 2025-10-16T10:20:53+08:00 | 144.88575560375995 |
| 2025-10-16T10:21:13+08:00 | 153.09083083703473 |
| 2025-10-16T11:06:21+08:00 | 153.1196157421754 |
| 2025-10-16T11:06:33+08:00 | 153.84553937265434 |
| 2025-10-16T11:06:40+08:00 | 160.01570085734946 |
| 2025-10-16T11:06:55+08:00 | 160.4179664635196 |
| 2025-10-16T11:08:14+08:00 | 169.0258926419447 |
| 2025-10-16T12:03:37+08:00 | 169.8550080914506 |
| 2025-10-16T12:03:44+08:00 | 169.85504252315533 |
| 2025-10-16T12:03:48+08:00 | 170.52918086974486 |
| 2025-10-16T12:05:38+08:00 | 174.73329201528767 |
| 2025-10-16T13:49:13+08:00 | 174.87497848018455 |
| 2025-10-16T13:49:21+08:00 | 175.52711496746204 |
| 2025-10-16T13:49:26+08:00 | 175.52714939916675 |
| 2025-10-16T13:49:35+08:00 | 180.3131563543711 |
| 2025-10-16T14:10:08+08:00 | 180.37330854250595 |
| 2025-10-16T14:10:13+08:00 | 181.70251007127362 |
| 2025-10-16T14:10:20+08:00 | 187.8761147264401 |
| 2025-10-16T14:10:55+08:00 | 191.00599111662018 |
| 2025-10-16T15:08:01+08:00 | 191.7542264917536 |
| 2025-10-16T15:08:09+08:00 | 191.97427951657886 |
| 2025-10-16T15:08:15+08:00 | 196.16461798023622 |
| 2025-10-16T16:06:31+08:00 | 197.36711083565748 |
| 2025-10-16T16:06:39+08:00 | 202.43545776951416 |
| 2025-10-16T16:53:35+08:00 | 203.46840891092518 |
| 2025-10-16T17:31:08+08:00 | 205.00309885342423 |
| 2025-10-16T17:31:12+08:00 | 209.234755362738 |
| 2025-10-16T17:31:21+08:00 | 268.80160451743967 |
| 2025-10-16T18:00:35+08:00 | 270.7335674689254 |
| 2025-10-16T18:03:21+08:00 | 271.7338773542678 |
| 2025-10-16T18:12:00+08:00 | 276.06194263678 |
| 2025-10-16T18:12:35+08:00 | 303.6073064077402 |
| 2025-10-16T20:32:07+08:00 | 304.5649898426471 |
| 2025-10-16T20:32:13+08:00 | 308.39723857728194 |
| 2025-10-16T20:32:19+08:00 | 308.68897841132116 |
| 2025-10-16T20:32:25+08:00 | 313.71256412905 |
| 2025-10-16T22:41:54+08:00 | 314.28919188789035 |
| 2025-10-16T22:41:59+08:00 | 318.854835932927 |
| 2025-10-16T22:42:09+08:00 | 319.90937575319356 |
| 2025-10-16T22:42:14+08:00 | 324.9364046413938 |
| 2025-10-17T08:41:37+08:00 | 325.81585924319114 |
| 2025-10-17T08:41:40+08:00 | 329.2844747443446 |
| 2025-10-17T08:41:59+08:00 | 329.2844747443446 |
| 2025-10-17T08:42:08+08:00 | 358.8544227524705 |
| 2025-10-17T09:01:18+08:00 | 363.5853734118376 |
| 2025-10-17T09:09:04+08:00 | 365.77777777777777 |
| 2025-10-17T09:09:08+08:00 | 376.9198774231312 |
| 2025-10-17T09:40:26+08:00 | 378.29714561167924 |
| 2025-10-17T10:14:59+08:00 | 380.1799745205385 |
| 2025-10-17T14:47:14+08:00 | 384.93154977102915 |
| 2025-10-17T17:58:03+08:00 | 392.66 |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|
| Time | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|
Using the actual oversubscription ratio 550.99x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.541, Pool B α=0.641) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier
| Lots | Subscription Amount (HKD) | Actual Expected Lots | Predicted Expected Lots | Error |
|---|
Fibocom Allotment Prediction MatrixRows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates guaranteed allotment (≥1 lot)
Mechanism B
Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).
α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].
The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").
Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier
Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.
This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Fibocom (00638): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 10,897 allotment-tier records across 356 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation).
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.
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