Margin dynamics Margin multiple3936.09x Margin funds1772.3100M TradeGo forecast multiple5077.55x
Rank Broker Margin funds
1 富途证券富途 1329.3100M
2 老虎国际老虎 188.9100M
3 华泰国际华泰 65.7100M
4 辉立证券辉立 55.0100M
5 盈立证券盈立 32.9100M
6 华盛证券华盛 28.1100M
7 致富证券致富 23.9100M
8 复星国际复星 21.5100M
9 信诚证券信诚 10.0100M
Margin multiple
TimeMultiple
2026-06-17T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-17T10:11:21+08:000.02598267821452365
2026-06-17T10:11:26+08:000.031978680879413725
2026-06-17T10:11:32+08:000.054186098156784365
2026-06-17T11:16:05+08:000.08394403730846102
2026-06-17T11:18:20+08:000.17899178325560738
2026-06-17T11:19:15+08:000.18121252498334445
2026-06-17T11:19:52+08:002.0910504108372194
2026-06-17T12:15:03+08:002.11325782811459
2026-06-17T12:16:44+08:002.1303575394181657
2026-06-17T12:19:08+08:002.148789695758383
2026-06-17T12:20:05+08:002.281367976904286
2026-06-17T12:20:37+08:003.5471907617144125
2026-06-17T13:43:35+08:003.6038196757717076
2026-06-17T13:44:30+08:003.6093715300910505
2026-06-17T13:46:08+08:003.6226959804574728
2026-06-17T13:48:14+08:003.6251387963579838
2026-06-17T13:50:24+08:004.53564290473018
2026-06-17T14:08:14+08:004.553852986897624
2026-06-17T14:08:44+08:004.558072396180324
2026-06-17T14:10:41+08:004.660004441483456
2026-06-17T14:11:44+08:004.693093493226738
2026-06-17T14:12:31+08:005.203864090606262
2026-06-17T14:15:08+08:005.249167221852098
2026-06-17T15:03:49+08:005.471241394625805
2026-06-17T15:07:30+08:005.48834110592938
2026-06-17T15:08:33+08:005.494115034421497
2026-06-17T15:09:30+08:005.512991339107262
2026-06-17T15:10:05+08:005.517876970908284
2026-06-17T15:11:43+08:006.339551410170997
2026-06-17T16:27:14+08:006.3446591161447925
2026-06-17T16:28:18+08:006.502553852986898
2026-06-17T16:31:25+08:006.520319786808794
2026-06-17T16:32:42+08:007.7417277370641795
2026-06-17T16:34:44+08:007.874972240728403
2026-06-17T16:35:59+08:007.988230068842993
2026-06-17T17:01:36+08:008.357317343992893
2026-06-17T17:02:22+08:008.379524761270265
2026-06-17T17:04:27+08:008.71063735287586
2026-06-17T17:06:17+08:008.890517432822563
2026-06-17T17:07:26+08:009.801021541194759
2026-06-17T18:04:07+08:009.814790139906728
2026-06-17T18:05:13+08:009.818787475016656
2026-06-17T18:07:30+08:009.900732844770154
2026-06-17T18:08:40+08:0010.646902065289806
2026-06-17T18:09:42+08:0011.468576504552521
2026-06-17T18:14:06+08:0011.700199866755497
2026-06-17T20:21:52+08:0013.920941594492561
2026-06-17T20:23:50+08:0013.933377748167889
2026-06-17T20:24:24+08:0013.988896291361314
2026-06-17T20:25:37+08:0013.924272707084166
2026-06-17T20:26:46+08:0014.04974461470131
2026-06-17T20:33:34+08:0016.18165667332889
2026-06-17T22:23:49+08:0016.184321563402175
2026-06-17T22:25:27+08:0016.1892071952032
2026-06-17T22:27:13+08:0016.37930268709749
2026-06-17T22:28:52+08:0017.11214745725072
2026-06-18T09:11:41+08:0017.148123473240062
2026-06-18T09:12:02+08:0017.148123473240062
2026-06-18T09:12:08+08:0017.91960914945592
2026-06-18T09:12:21+08:0020.76215856095936
2026-06-18T09:12:27+08:0021.42660448589829
2026-06-18T09:12:39+08:0021.47990228736398
2026-06-18T09:12:46+08:0021.482789251610036
2026-06-18T09:12:52+08:0021.628691983122362
2026-06-18T09:12:59+08:0022.294914501443483
2026-06-18T10:05:41+08:0022.352653786364645
2026-06-18T10:05:55+08:0022.356873195647346
2026-06-18T10:06:01+08:0022.391738840772817
2026-06-18T10:06:07+08:0022.38818565400844
2026-06-18T10:06:25+08:0022.721296913169
2026-06-18T10:37:56+08:0022.85454141683322
2026-06-18T11:19:15+08:0022.980901621141463
2026-06-18T11:20:21+08:0023.097268487674885
2026-06-18T11:22:29+08:0023.198090162114145
2026-06-18T11:23:27+08:0023.200532978014657
2026-06-18T11:25:47+08:0024.421940928270043
2026-06-18T12:16:34+08:0024.429269375971575
2026-06-18T12:19:10+08:0024.931157006440152
2026-06-18T12:20:21+08:0025.095713968465468
2026-06-18T12:23:23+08:0027.60515212080835
2026-06-18T14:04:51+08:0027.754830113257828
2026-06-18T14:04:56+08:0027.828114590273152
2026-06-18T14:10:28+08:0028.23850766155896
2026-06-18T14:10:30+08:0028.92871419053964
2026-06-18T14:12:18+08:0031.615811681101487
2026-06-18T14:12:22+08:0035.41328003553187
2026-06-18T14:15:06+08:0035.43037974683544
2026-06-18T14:15:10+08:0035.45369753497668
2026-06-18T14:21:05+08:0036.371085942704866
2026-06-18T15:02:39+08:0036.43371085942705
2026-06-18T15:02:50+08:0036.50188763046857
2026-06-18T15:07:01+08:0036.49677992449478
2026-06-18T15:07:08+08:0037.371308016877634
2026-06-18T15:07:31+08:0041.102154119475905
2026-06-18T15:54:18+08:0043.10082167443926
2026-06-18T16:12:19+08:0043.23006884299356
2026-06-18T16:12:47+08:0043.24628025760604
2026-06-18T16:14:37+08:0044.189651343548746
2026-06-18T16:16:46+08:0044.19653564290473
2026-06-18T16:17:29+08:0053.85676215856096
2026-06-18T16:18:00+08:0054.96713302242949
2026-06-18T17:47:15+08:0055.855429713524316
2026-06-18T17:48:31+08:0059.12524983344437
2026-06-18T17:50:09+08:0061.97179658005774
2026-06-18T17:52:01+08:0061.99600266489007
2026-06-18T17:53:04+08:0062.238951809904506
2026-06-18T17:54:02+08:0074.58627581612258
2026-06-18T17:56:15+08:0079.47190761714413
2026-06-18T18:07:44+08:0079.8842993559849
2026-06-18T18:07:55+08:0080.0641794359316
2026-06-18T18:08:04+08:0080.93693093493226
2026-06-18T18:08:10+08:0081.04241616699977
2026-06-18T18:08:32+08:0089.23695314234955
2026-06-18T18:18:57+08:0090.46324672440595
2026-06-18T20:30:13+08:0090.60604041749944
2026-06-18T20:30:43+08:0090.91538974017321
2026-06-18T20:33:46+08:0091.65733955141017
2026-06-18T20:34:59+08:0091.92205196535643
2026-06-18T20:36:17+08:00100.91605596269154
2026-06-18T21:34:47+08:00101.40928270042194
2026-06-18T22:08:59+08:00102.64379302687098
2026-06-18T22:09:04+08:00102.87319564734621
2026-06-18T22:10:54+08:00107.91427936930936
2026-06-19T09:16:29+08:00128.5227626027093
2026-06-19T09:16:33+08:00132.05374194981124
2026-06-19T09:19:49+08:00132.19231623362202
2026-06-19T09:22:00+08:00132.98334443704198
2026-06-19T09:24:28+08:00136.40062180768376
2026-06-19T09:30:04+08:00140.05640683988452
2026-06-19T10:16:39+08:00140.1865423051299
2026-06-19T10:17:41+08:00140.23206751054852
2026-06-19T10:19:39+08:00140.30202087497224
2026-06-19T10:21:01+08:00140.32289584721298
2026-06-19T10:24:47+08:00144.0093271152565
2026-06-19T11:42:13+08:00144.20408616477903
2026-06-19T11:43:37+08:00144.22207417277372
2026-06-19T11:44:50+08:00144.2500555185432
2026-06-19T11:48:32+08:00144.4459249389296
2026-06-19T11:50:21+08:00147.1108150122141
2026-06-19T12:08:21+08:00147.27426160337552
2026-06-19T12:10:15+08:00147.32556073728625
2026-06-19T12:11:40+08:00147.66622251832112
2026-06-19T12:13:02+08:00147.690872751499
2026-06-19T12:14:31+08:00149.31201421274704
2026-06-19T14:18:42+08:00149.34221630024427
2026-06-19T14:18:45+08:00149.8800799467022
2026-06-19T14:19:53+08:00149.9258272262936
2026-06-19T14:19:56+08:00149.94314901176992
2026-06-19T14:22:36+08:00149.94958916278037
2026-06-19T14:22:41+08:00149.99267155229848
2026-06-19T14:25:15+08:00150.03064623584277
2026-06-19T14:25:20+08:00150.76149233844103
2026-06-19T14:26:38+08:00152.62691538974016
2026-06-19T14:26:42+08:00154.58116811014878
2026-06-19T15:17:04+08:00155.2103042416167
2026-06-19T15:18:21+08:00155.58405507439485
2026-06-19T15:18:58+08:00155.6284699089496
2026-06-19T15:20:04+08:00155.73750832778148
2026-06-19T15:21:11+08:00159.17965800577392
2026-06-19T17:10:11+08:00159.22429491450146
2026-06-19T17:10:15+08:00159.26115922718188
2026-06-19T17:14:36+08:00161.41527870308684
2026-06-19T17:14:40+08:00162.2591605596269
2026-06-19T17:18:53+08:00162.31268043526538
2026-06-19T17:18:58+08:00163.08549855651788
2026-06-19T17:21:49+08:00163.51721074838997
2026-06-19T17:21:54+08:00163.59360426382412
2026-06-19T17:23:13+08:00163.75460803908504
2026-06-19T17:23:16+08:00163.7559404841217
2026-06-19T22:45:40+08:00164.9957805907173
2026-06-19T22:56:49+08:00165.17255163224516
2026-06-19T23:07:57+08:00165.51321341328003
2026-06-19T23:08:03+08:00166.04441483455474
2026-06-19T23:10:41+08:00166.3895180990451
2026-06-19T23:16:05+08:00172.1412391738841
2026-06-19T23:25:15+08:00172.29402620475238
2026-06-20T10:22:03+08:00172.29402620475238
2026-06-20T10:24:22+08:00173.16166999777926
2026-06-20T10:25:56+08:00173.32045303131247
2026-06-20T10:27:27+08:00174.25982678214524
2026-06-20T10:29:09+08:00174.3377748167888
2026-06-20T10:32:52+08:00185.9966688874084
2026-06-20T10:33:29+08:00187.52898067954698
2026-06-20T12:20:04+08:00187.4323784143904
2026-06-20T12:23:30+08:00187.54674661336887
2026-06-20T12:24:07+08:00187.62358427714858
2026-06-20T12:25:07+08:00188.83877415056628
2026-06-20T12:27:12+08:00192.85831667777038
2026-06-20T14:14:49+08:00193.31867643793026
2026-06-20T14:15:44+08:00193.33155673995114
2026-06-20T14:16:45+08:00193.3504330446369
2026-06-20T14:18:04+08:00193.58405507439485
2026-06-20T14:19:46+08:00200.33510992671552
2026-06-20T18:33:47+08:00200.97357317343992
2026-06-20T18:36:18+08:00201.0346435709527
2026-06-20T18:38:39+08:00203.20097712636021
2026-06-20T18:39:42+08:00203.43015767266266
2026-06-20T18:41:07+08:00209.27070841661114
2026-06-20T18:41:36+08:00210.1367976904286
2026-06-20T20:12:13+08:00210.21741061514547
2026-06-20T20:14:03+08:00210.29335998223408
2026-06-20T20:15:22+08:00210.5134354874528
2026-06-20T20:16:03+08:00210.6351321341328
2026-06-20T20:18:39+08:00214.05507439484788
2026-06-20T21:10:27+08:00214.06617810348658
2026-06-20T22:05:54+08:00214.2500555185432
2026-06-20T22:08:16+08:00214.3919609149456
2026-06-20T22:09:30+08:00217.92294026204752
2026-06-21T09:45:33+08:00217.91228070175438
2026-06-21T09:46:17+08:00218.8463246724406
2026-06-21T09:46:33+08:00227.88474350433046
2026-06-21T09:46:42+08:00228.36864312680436
2026-06-21T09:46:57+08:00228.78902953586498
2026-06-21T09:47:07+08:00228.80279813457696
2026-06-21T09:47:16+08:00229.07284032866977
2026-06-21T09:47:35+08:00229.98334443704198
2026-06-21T10:06:18+08:00230.08127914723516
2026-06-21T10:06:25+08:00230.08816344659115
2026-06-21T10:06:33+08:00230.23428825227626
2026-06-21T10:06:42+08:00230.24028425494114
2026-06-21T10:07:07+08:00230.68443260048858
2026-06-21T12:36:08+08:00230.76748834110592
2026-06-21T12:36:13+08:00230.9096158116811
2026-06-21T12:39:57+08:00230.98756384632466
2026-06-21T12:40:01+08:00231.04707972462802
2026-06-21T12:41:13+08:00231.04796802131912
2026-06-21T12:41:46+08:00231.08061292471686
2026-06-21T12:43:58+08:00231.63202309571398
2026-06-21T12:44:01+08:00232.55629580279813
2026-06-21T12:48:31+08:00234.7770375305352
2026-06-21T12:48:35+08:00237.10881634465912
2026-06-21T13:06:04+08:00237.1443482123029
2026-06-21T13:07:22+08:00237.16033755274262
2026-06-21T13:07:56+08:00237.206084832334
2026-06-21T13:09:26+08:00238.07217410615146
2026-06-21T15:48:35+08:00238.1865423051299
2026-06-21T15:51:51+08:00238.44548079058404
2026-06-21T15:52:25+08:00238.50011103708638
2026-06-21T15:53:22+08:00239.93471019320452
2026-06-21T15:55:01+08:00246.0861647790362
2026-06-21T18:31:38+08:00246.43948478791916
2026-06-21T18:33:49+08:00246.6200310903842
2026-06-21T18:35:22+08:00246.66067066400177
2026-06-21T18:36:21+08:00246.82966910948258
2026-06-21T18:37:51+08:00257.0894958916278
2026-06-21T20:06:35+08:00257.1376859871197
2026-06-21T20:08:03+08:00259.5725072174106
2026-06-21T20:09:19+08:00259.7181878747502
2026-06-21T20:09:40+08:00259.85454141683323
2026-06-21T20:11:15+08:00264.16278036864315
2026-06-21T21:06:15+08:00264.2915833888519
2026-06-21T22:10:45+08:00265.5252054186098
2026-06-21T22:11:23+08:00266.0006662225183
2026-06-21T22:12:23+08:00266.1419053964024
2026-06-21T22:12:33+08:00266.6055962691539
2026-06-21T22:14:04+08:00268.5820564068399
2026-06-21T22:14:08+08:00272.3573173439929
2026-06-22T09:02:46+08:00272.8629802353986
2026-06-22T09:03:20+08:00274.8620919387075
2026-06-22T09:03:28+08:00274.8620919387075
2026-06-22T09:03:42+08:00303.6873195647346
2026-06-22T09:04:48+08:00305.2769264934488
2026-06-22T09:05:05+08:00306.29335998223405
2026-06-22T09:05:17+08:00307.5629580279813
2026-06-22T09:05:23+08:00307.9873417721519
2026-06-22T09:05:38+08:00324.3986231401288
2026-06-22T09:18:58+08:00334.39196091494557
2026-06-22T10:08:34+08:00342.24716855429716
2026-06-22T10:08:40+08:00342.81634465911617
2026-06-22T10:08:46+08:00344.0346435709527
2026-06-22T10:08:55+08:00349.653564290473
2026-06-22T10:09:10+08:00382.3428825227626
2026-06-22T11:14:14+08:00384.81745502998
2026-06-22T11:18:07+08:00388.0395292027537
2026-06-22T11:19:42+08:00388.03064623584277
2026-06-22T11:21:09+08:00388.85520763935153
2026-06-22T11:23:43+08:00421.5001110370864
2026-06-22T12:11:30+08:00422.241394625805
2026-06-22T12:12:48+08:00427.70131023761934
2026-06-22T12:15:06+08:00427.72107483899623
2026-06-22T12:16:36+08:00458.6560071063735
2026-06-22T12:21:24+08:00459.26782145236507
2026-06-22T14:17:08+08:00463.12569398178994
2026-06-22T14:17:10+08:00465.75149900066623
2026-06-22T14:21:25+08:00465.8505440817233
2026-06-22T14:21:28+08:00465.6233622029758
2026-06-22T14:23:24+08:00495.69220519653567
2026-06-22T14:23:27+08:00521.2307350655119
2026-06-22T14:25:57+08:00521.6395736175883
2026-06-22T14:26:00+08:00522.028425494115
2026-06-22T14:28:20+08:00522.8061292471685
2026-06-22T14:28:23+08:00525.3741949811237
2026-06-22T14:41:09+08:00545.3435487452809
2026-06-22T15:05:15+08:00565.3302242949145
2026-06-22T15:12:23+08:00566.6784365978236
2026-06-22T15:14:42+08:00566.6562291805463
2026-06-22T15:15:00+08:00567.0655118809682
2026-06-22T15:16:15+08:00571.5423051299134
2026-06-22T15:17:37+08:00603.3877415056629
2026-06-22T15:18:12+08:00605.5640683988452
2026-06-22T16:03:50+08:00607.8860759493671
2026-06-22T16:09:07+08:00619.3626471241395
2026-06-22T16:09:52+08:00630.2231845436376
2026-06-22T16:13:07+08:00630.7670441927604
2026-06-22T16:15:51+08:00682.332667110815
2026-06-22T17:03:31+08:00689.9635798356651
2026-06-22T17:07:05+08:00691.9475904952254
2026-06-22T17:08:15+08:00746.7905840550744
2026-06-22T17:09:46+08:001053.6304685765047
2026-06-22T17:11:41+08:001055.008882966911
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TradeGo forecast multiple
TimeMultiple
Broker margin funds trend
TimeBrokerMargin funds
Prediction Model 1-Lot Expected Lots— Lots for expected 1-lot allotment—
Multiple derivation
Recent first-day return
+4.6%
→
Participants
17,081
→
Avg lots
48.6
→
Oversubscription
224x
224x = 17,081 × 48.6 ÷ 3,709 margin-weighted 100% → 5077.6x
1x22208.0x
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.54
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.64
This model does not support allocation strategy adjustment

Actual vs Predicted Comparison

Using the actual oversubscription ratio 5966.78x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.536, Pool B α=0.636) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier

Lots Subscription Amount (HKD) Actual Expected Lots Predicted Expected Lots Error

LogoWenge AI Allotment Prediction Matrix

Rows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates expected ≥1 lot. Non-preset multiples are interpolated from the nearest grid points.

Offering Mechanism

18C

HKEX Listing Rule Chapter 18C for specialist technology companies. Mechanisms A and B do not apply. Initial allocation 5%, with clawback: 10x to below 50x → 10%, 50x or above → 20%. At least 50% of total offering shares must be taken up by independent pricing investors in the placing tranche.

Allocation Strategy Coefficient α

α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].

  • α → 0: Per-capita allocation — regardless of lots subscribed, every allottee receives the same number of shares. More favorable to retail (small) applications.
  • α → 1: Proportional allocation — allotted shares are proportional to lots subscribed. More favorable to large applications.
  • Historical actual α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0. α varies widely across IPOs, reflecting each issuer's allocation strategy.
Allotment Rate Definition

The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").

Expected Allotment Lots

Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier

Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.

About this page

This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Wenge AI (01956): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 22087 allotment-tier records across 592 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation). You can override the oversubscription multiple and the allocation-method α right on the page, replacing cibo's defaults to see expected lots under your own scenario. How allotment rates and clawback work is explained in How Hong Kong IPO Allotment Rates Work.
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.

Cibo — HK IPO Allotment Forecasts, Allottee Profiling & Stock Connect