Margin dynamics Margin multiple235.64x Margin funds1645.3100M TradeGo forecast multiple315.76x
Rank Broker Margin funds
1 富途证券富途 767.2100M
2 辉立证券辉立 528.0100M
3 老虎国际老虎 144.2100M
4 华泰国际华泰 77.4100M
5 致富证券致富 38.1100M
6 复星国际复星 27.6100M
7 华盛证券华盛 23.0100M
8 盈立证券盈立 16.4100M
9 熊猫证券熊猫 14.4100M
Margin multiple
TimeMultiple
2026-06-30T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-30T10:29:12+08:005.7288533699979946e-05
2026-06-30T11:21:10+08:000.0009309386726246741
2026-06-30T11:21:16+08:000.0016470453438744235
2026-06-30T11:21:21+08:000.001990776546074303
2026-06-30T11:21:33+08:000.07073701698605024
2026-06-30T12:14:35+08:000.0711666809888001
2026-06-30T12:19:20+08:000.07547764314972358
2026-06-30T12:21:56+08:000.0765947695568732
2026-06-30T12:23:13+08:000.07872876743719745
2026-06-30T12:26:51+08:000.6186731975595084
2026-06-30T14:06:07+08:000.6194752370313081
2026-06-30T14:06:09+08:000.619847612500358
2026-06-30T14:06:49+08:000.6183581106241586
2026-06-30T14:06:52+08:000.6185729426255335
2026-06-30T14:14:02+08:000.6204634642376329
2026-06-30T14:14:04+08:000.6299590386984045
2026-06-30T14:18:03+08:000.6310618429721291
2026-06-30T14:18:06+08:000.631434218441179
2026-06-30T14:19:49+08:000.640027498496176
2026-06-30T14:19:52+08:000.65721405860617
2026-06-30T14:30:38+08:000.6757325771246885
2026-06-30T15:03:29+08:000.6760333419266134
2026-06-30T15:05:38+08:000.6811320214259116
2026-06-30T15:07:18+08:000.6813038870270115
2026-06-30T15:09:01+08:000.6825355905015611
2026-06-30T15:10:16+08:000.6868322305290596
2026-06-30T15:17:19+08:000.6868035862622096
2026-06-30T16:29:14+08:000.6879923233364842
2026-06-30T16:33:08+08:000.688450631606084
2026-06-30T16:34:52+08:000.6886081750737589
2026-06-30T16:37:37+08:000.7107788376156512
2026-06-30T16:39:36+08:000.7110652802841512
2026-06-30T16:41:44+08:000.7583283205866346
2026-06-30T17:07:04+08:000.760075620864484
2026-06-30T17:08:12+08:000.7601615536650339
2026-06-30T17:11:06+08:000.7594884133940591
2026-06-30T17:12:50+08:000.7603763856664089
2026-06-30T17:14:48+08:000.762782504081808
2026-06-30T17:17:52+08:000.7814012775343016
2026-06-30T18:06:41+08:000.774383432156054
2026-06-30T18:12:49+08:000.7794105009882272
2026-06-30T18:17:53+08:000.780026352725502
2026-06-30T18:19:21+08:000.7802411847268769
2026-06-30T18:21:22+08:000.7805419495288018
2026-06-30T18:24:33+08:000.7813439890006015
2026-06-30T18:25:56+08:000.791369482398098
2026-06-30T18:26:26+08:001.1494228180229726
2026-06-30T20:09:09+08:001.1495517172237977
2026-06-30T20:10:44+08:001.1491363753544728
2026-06-30T20:12:39+08:001.1503537566955975
2026-06-30T20:15:14+08:001.1506401993640973
2026-06-30T20:17:32+08:001.1508550313654722
2026-06-30T20:19:31+08:001.2081435650654522
2026-06-30T22:00:06+08:001.208888316003552
2026-06-30T22:04:40+08:001.2090745037380768
2026-06-30T22:06:58+08:001.2091604365386268
2026-06-30T22:08:57+08:001.2192288963363982
2026-06-30T22:10:03+08:001.2163644696513993
2026-07-01T08:43:03+08:001.2728366417461545
2026-07-01T08:43:07+08:001.3041448254131935
2026-07-01T08:53:17+08:001.3040875368794935
2026-07-01T08:53:20+08:001.3042307582137436
2026-07-01T08:58:18+08:001.911489215433531
2026-07-01T09:02:47+08:001.911489215433531
2026-07-01T09:05:28+08:001.9191802010827532
2026-07-01T09:08:06+08:001.9192661338833032
2026-07-01T09:10:37+08:001.9243361691157514
2026-07-01T09:12:24+08:001.9236916731116267
2026-07-01T09:13:55+08:001.9294205264816247
2026-07-01T09:17:48+08:001.9337314886425483
2026-07-01T09:24:28+08:001.9298645126177996
2026-07-01T10:18:25+08:001.9303801094210993
2026-07-01T10:22:24+08:001.9350204806507978
2026-07-01T10:24:51+08:001.9362521841253473
2026-07-01T10:26:34+08:001.9605998109478389
2026-07-01T10:28:06+08:001.9606427773481139
2026-07-01T11:09:14+08:001.9611870184182636
2026-07-01T11:10:44+08:001.9612299848185386
2026-07-01T11:11:43+08:001.9613588840193634
2026-07-01T11:13:26+08:001.9647245853742374
2026-07-01T11:15:53+08:001.9651542493769871
2026-07-01T11:20:16+08:001.9723153160894846
2026-07-01T12:14:02+08:001.9723726046231846
2026-07-01T12:16:36+08:001.9730314227607344
2026-07-01T12:18:17+08:001.9730600670275844
2026-07-01T12:19:34+08:001.974177193434734
2026-07-01T12:21:02+08:001.98563490017473
2026-07-01T14:11:20+08:001.9870384692503795
2026-07-01T14:11:23+08:001.9868952479161295
2026-07-01T14:14:36+08:001.9963765002434763
2026-07-01T14:14:39+08:002.0068889461774226
2026-07-01T14:18:35+08:002.0126177995474204
2026-07-01T14:18:38+08:002.0255077196299163
2026-07-01T14:20:51+08:002.025264243361691
2026-07-01T14:23:09+08:002.029517916988915
2026-07-01T14:23:11+08:002.0293603735212398
2026-07-01T14:25:40+08:002.031193606599639
2026-07-01T14:25:42+08:002.034616596488213
2026-07-01T14:31:22+08:002.0391567127839365
2026-07-01T15:09:54+08:002.0378104322419865
2026-07-01T15:13:11+08:002.0383403511787117
2026-07-01T15:14:08+08:002.0383117069118617
2026-07-01T15:15:30+08:002.034143966085188
2026-07-01T15:18:06+08:002.034616596488213
2026-07-01T15:20:22+08:002.058964223310704
2026-07-01T16:14:47+08:002.0593509209131793
2026-07-01T16:18:17+08:002.054696227550056
2026-07-01T16:18:57+08:002.0549540259517056
2026-07-01T16:20:39+08:002.0550972472859557
2026-07-01T16:22:04+08:002.0450717538884593
2026-07-01T16:24:00+08:002.045472773624359
2026-07-01T17:03:43+08:002.0487811864455328
2026-07-01T17:06:22+08:002.0451720088224343
2026-07-01T17:08:33+08:002.0452865858898344
2026-07-01T17:12:28+08:002.045358196556959
2026-07-01T18:02:49+08:002.045372518690384
2026-07-01T18:04:49+08:002.046360745896709
2026-07-01T18:06:43+08:002.046575577898084
2026-07-01T18:08:53+08:002.0487811864455328
2026-07-01T18:10:08+08:001.5589642233107044
2026-07-01T18:19:14+08:001.5621294147976283
2026-07-01T20:55:15+08:001.5636045945404027
2026-07-01T20:56:25+08:001.5638910372089025
2026-07-01T20:58:42+08:001.5694337028443757
2026-07-01T21:00:17+08:001.5698060783134256
2026-07-01T21:01:11+08:001.5726705049984246
2026-07-01T21:02:10+08:001.5755349316834235
2026-07-01T21:04:36+08:001.5761937498209733
2026-07-01T22:06:20+08:001.5762796826215233
2026-07-01T22:07:41+08:001.577353842628398
2026-07-01T22:10:28+08:001.5727994041992495
2026-07-01T22:15:03+08:001.0829824410644209
2026-07-02T08:44:26+08:001.0849732176104954
2026-07-02T08:44:29+08:001.0806336111827217
2026-07-02T08:47:30+08:001.0815931941221963
2026-07-02T08:47:33+08:001.0815215834550715
2026-07-02T08:52:04+08:001.14310675718255
2026-07-02T08:58:51+08:001.14310675718255
2026-07-02T09:13:18+08:001.1445389705250495
2026-07-02T09:19:15+08:001.166036492795967
2026-07-02T09:21:08+08:001.1707771189596403
2026-07-02T09:27:07+08:001.1858296811893099
2026-07-02T09:29:54+08:001.1844834006473604
2026-07-02T09:33:09+08:001.2646873478273324
2026-07-02T09:51:50+08:001.2681962705164562
2026-07-02T10:14:37+08:001.268826444387156
2026-07-02T10:16:06+08:001.2646300592936324
2026-07-02T10:17:12+08:001.2857552060955
2026-07-02T10:19:08+08:001.28578385036235
2026-07-02T10:21:51+08:001.2858124946292
2026-07-02T10:25:37+08:001.2328206009567184
2026-07-02T11:10:09+08:001.2331643321589183
2026-07-02T11:10:49+08:001.2334221305605684
2026-07-02T11:13:54+08:001.2340809486981181
2026-07-02T11:15:13+08:001.2326487353556186
2026-07-02T11:16:55+08:001.2326630574890436
2026-07-02T11:19:21+08:001.2335939961616682
2026-07-02T12:11:51+08:001.2334507748274184
2026-07-02T12:16:47+08:001.2477299418521384
2026-07-02T12:19:14+08:001.248274182922288
2026-07-02T12:20:25+08:001.2712755292028302
2026-07-02T12:21:52+08:001.2927587293403224
2026-07-02T12:24:03+08:001.2922860989372977
2026-07-02T14:07:42+08:001.2924722866718226
2026-07-02T14:07:45+08:001.2917418578671478
2026-07-02T14:12:45+08:001.2910114290624732
2026-07-02T14:12:47+08:001.2928876285411475
2026-07-02T14:15:40+08:001.2918707570679728
2026-07-02T14:15:43+08:001.291555670132623
2026-07-02T14:19:47+08:001.2898226919881985
2026-07-02T14:19:49+08:001.2904242215920483
2026-07-02T14:20:19+08:001.2876170834407494
2026-07-02T14:20:22+08:001.3062358568932428
2026-07-02T14:20:25+08:001.308112056371917
2026-07-02T14:20:27+08:001.2966543496319212
2026-07-02T14:36:55+08:001.308112056371917
2026-07-02T15:01:25+08:001.3083268883732921
2026-07-02T15:03:19+08:001.3069949299647676
2026-07-02T15:06:28+08:001.3070522184984674
2026-07-02T15:10:16+08:001.3068087422302426
2026-07-02T15:11:47+08:001.308169344905617
2026-07-02T15:13:19+08:001.3396780384406062
2026-07-02T16:05:10+08:001.3544298358683509
2026-07-02T16:07:23+08:001.3539715275987512
2026-07-02T16:09:19+08:001.3540144939990262
2026-07-02T16:10:40+08:001.3532983873277764
2026-07-02T16:11:53+08:001.360459454040274
2026-07-02T16:14:12+08:001.362579129787173
2026-07-02T17:04:20+08:001.3682077282231961
2026-07-02T17:06:28+08:001.3679928962218213
2026-07-02T17:08:35+08:001.3625648076537482
2026-07-02T17:10:29+08:001.362722351121423
2026-07-02T17:11:36+08:001.3639683767293975
2026-07-02T17:14:32+08:001.3682650167568962
2026-07-02T18:10:43+08:001.382988169917791
2026-07-02T18:17:55+08:001.3830597805849159
2026-07-02T18:19:15+08:001.391466872905388
2026-07-02T18:19:55+08:001.3915957721062129
2026-07-02T18:21:49+08:001.3916100942396379
2026-07-02T18:22:14+08:001.394274011056687
2026-07-02T18:24:21+08:001.41432499785168
2026-07-02T18:26:55+08:001.6291569992266048
2026-07-02T20:42:09+08:001.6291856434934548
2026-07-02T20:44:59+08:001.6277391080175303
2026-07-02T20:46:32+08:001.6278680072183553
2026-07-02T20:50:09+08:001.6271375784136806
2026-07-02T20:52:08+08:001.614247658331185
2026-07-02T21:50:22+08:001.6151642748703847
2026-07-02T22:06:43+08:001.6155080060725846
2026-07-02T22:07:58+08:001.6155509724728596
2026-07-02T22:10:17+08:001.6237289106585318
2026-07-02T22:12:16+08:001.6695597376185156
2026-07-03T08:38:44+08:001.6789264128784624
2026-07-03T08:38:47+08:001.6673254848042165
2026-07-03T08:43:09+08:001.6672252298702415
2026-07-03T08:43:12+08:001.6671965856033915
2026-07-03T08:45:54+08:001.6671965856033915
2026-07-03T08:48:27+08:001.662899945575893
2026-07-03T09:02:31+08:001.668184812809716
2026-07-03T09:07:11+08:001.6741571424479391
2026-07-03T09:09:49+08:001.6745868064506888
2026-07-03T09:12:16+08:001.6737131563117642
2026-07-03T09:14:34+08:001.6808742230242617
2026-07-03T09:19:33+08:001.6908710721549083
2026-07-03T10:16:21+08:001.6927329495001575
2026-07-03T10:17:11+08:001.6928188823007075
2026-07-03T10:18:03+08:001.7038755693048035
2026-07-03T10:20:27+08:001.7067399959898026
2026-07-03T10:26:55+08:001.7069118615909027
2026-07-03T10:29:56+08:001.7071410157257025
2026-07-03T11:12:42+08:001.7106069720145514
2026-07-03T11:14:16+08:001.7154764973790495
2026-07-03T11:16:24+08:001.768468391051531
2026-07-03T11:18:12+08:001.7736673254848043
2026-07-03T11:19:13+08:001.7753286929621037
2026-07-03T12:28:47+08:001.777391080175303
2026-07-03T12:29:33+08:001.7776059121766778
2026-07-03T12:30:24+08:001.7824611154077512
2026-07-03T12:31:05+08:001.902767036177709
2026-07-03T12:33:04+08:001.9077654607430323
2026-07-03T12:34:46+08:001.9111884506316061
2026-07-03T13:40:40+08:001.9210993669617027
2026-07-03T13:41:20+08:001.9210707226948527
2026-07-03T13:41:52+08:001.922918277906677
2026-07-03T13:43:39+08:001.9572913981266649
2026-07-03T13:44:27+08:001.9540975623728911
2026-07-03T13:45:43+08:001.954326716507691
2026-07-03T14:01:12+08:001.9591675976053393
2026-07-03T14:03:37+08:001.9704820830110854
2026-07-03T14:07:45+08:001.9863796511128298
2026-07-03T14:09:00+08:001.9870671135172295
2026-07-03T14:10:53+08:002.0328979404772136
2026-07-03T14:13:01+08:002.033785912749563
2026-07-03T15:20:04+08:002.024963478559766
2026-07-03T15:20:36+08:002.025249921228266
2026-07-03T15:21:13+08:002.025292887628541
2026-07-03T15:22:14+08:002.059666007848529
2026-07-03T15:25:01+08:002.068817851107101
2026-07-03T15:25:41+08:002.0692475151098506
2026-07-03T16:04:45+08:002.074331872475724
2026-07-03T16:05:18+08:002.074432127409699
2026-07-03T16:05:53+08:002.080246913580247
2026-07-03T16:06:45+08:002.083111340265246
2026-07-03T16:07:48+08:002.0902437627108936
2026-07-03T16:09:02+08:002.0906161381799433
2026-07-03T17:09:31+08:002.111254332445361
2026-07-03T17:10:56+08:002.1585603391481194
2026-07-03T17:11:48+08:002.1588181375497695
2026-07-03T17:12:43+08:002.2846237575549253
2026-07-03T17:13:30+08:002.2866002119675746
2026-07-03T17:15:36+08:002.338159892297557
2026-07-03T18:31:45+08:003.483930566297156
2026-07-03T18:34:37+08:003.487439488986279
2026-07-03T18:37:02+08:003.4876543209876543
2026-07-03T18:39:08+08:003.488184239924379
2026-07-03T18:40:51+08:003.488699836727679
2026-07-03T18:41:22+08:003.4889003465956288
2026-07-03T18:43:21+08:003.497493626650626
2026-07-03T18:49:21+08:003.520552261464868
2026-07-03T21:05:39+08:003.520681160665693
2026-07-03T21:07:15+08:003.5215834550714673
2026-07-03T21:08:53+08:003.525106699894016
2026-07-03T21:11:06+08:003.526166537767466
2026-07-03T21:12:51+08:003.5272550199077655
2026-07-03T21:14:48+08:003.5243905932227664
2026-07-03T21:15:30+08:003.574518060210249
2026-07-04T09:34:56+08:003.574518060210249
2026-07-04T09:36:22+08:003.5755778980836985
2026-07-04T09:37:24+08:003.5812351407865717
2026-07-04T09:38:34+08:003.5818366703904214
2026-07-04T09:40:14+08:003.5889977371029187
2026-07-04T09:41:44+08:003.592148606456418
2026-07-04T09:43:00+08:003.6379794334164015
2026-07-04T09:43:42+08:003.653733780183896
2026-07-04T10:27:12+08:003.653819712984446
2026-07-04T10:27:41+08:003.653834035117871
2026-07-04T10:30:04+08:003.6633152874452177
2026-07-04T10:30:37+08:003.6759330869926385
2026-07-04T10:31:25+08:003.6759187648592135
2026-07-04T10:32:09+08:003.677350978201713
2026-07-04T12:02:44+08:003.677408266735413
2026-07-04T12:10:41+08:003.675403168055914
2026-07-04T12:12:14+08:003.680129472086162
2026-07-04T12:13:02+08:003.680544813955487
2026-07-04T12:14:26+08:003.7077568674629773
2026-07-04T15:36:53+08:003.7132422445647504
2026-07-04T15:38:08+08:003.7132565666981754
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TradeGo forecast multiple
TimeMultiple
Broker margin funds trend
TimeBrokerMargin funds
Prediction Model 1-Lot Expected Lots— Lots for expected 1-lot allotment—
Multiple derivation
Recent first-day return
+4.6%
→
Participants
17,566
→
Avg lots
48.5
→
Oversubscription
4x
4x = 17,566 × 48.5 ÷ 216,167 A+H secondary · participants ×0.44 H-share discount 45.1% margin-weighted 100% → 315.8x
1x1432.0x
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.56
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.66
This model does not support allocation strategy adjustment

Actual vs Predicted Comparison

Using the actual oversubscription ratio 344.26x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.561, Pool B α=0.661) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier

Lots Subscription Amount (HKD) Actual Expected Lots Predicted Expected Lots Error

LogoNexchip Allotment Prediction Matrix

Rows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates expected ≥1 lot. Non-preset multiples are interpolated from the nearest grid points.

Offering Mechanism

Mechanism B

Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).

Allocation Strategy Coefficient α

α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].

  • α → 0: Per-capita allocation — regardless of lots subscribed, every allottee receives the same number of shares. More favorable to retail (small) applications.
  • α → 1: Proportional allocation — allotted shares are proportional to lots subscribed. More favorable to large applications.
  • Historical actual α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0. α varies widely across IPOs, reflecting each issuer's allocation strategy.
Allotment Rate Definition

The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").

Expected Allotment Lots

Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier

Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.

About this page

This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Nexchip (02249): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 22087 allotment-tier records across 592 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation). You can override the oversubscription multiple and the allocation-method α right on the page, replacing cibo's defaults to see expected lots under your own scenario. How allotment rates and clawback work is explained in How Hong Kong IPO Allotment Rates Work.
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.

Cibo — HK IPO Allotment Forecasts, Allottee Profiling & Stock Connect