Margin dynamics Margin multiple1645.34x Margin funds1059.5100M TradeGo forecast multiple2155.4x
Rank Broker Margin funds
1 富途证券富途 447.4100M
2 辉立证券辉立 386.0100M
3 老虎国际老虎 97.4100M
4 华泰国际华泰 39.2100M
6 华盛证券华盛 17.0100M
7 盈立证券盈立 16.8100M
8 复星国际复星 16.2100M
9 熊猫证券熊猫 11.0100M
10 致富证券致富 11.0100M
11 信诚证券信诚 8.0100M
12 TradeGo MarketsTradeGo 7.2100M
13 长桥证券长桥 917910K
14 FunderstoneFunderstone 436810K
15 艾德证券艾德 383610K
16 盈宝证券盈宝 286810K
17 东证国际东证 156010K
18 兴证国际兴证 125010K
Margin multiple
TimeMultiple
2026-07-30T06:00:00+08:000
2026-07-30T14:07:19+08:000.2669669203292437
2026-07-30T14:07:27+08:001.0191023450846404
2026-07-30T14:07:34+08:001.8019878863177512
2026-07-30T14:07:37+08:003.050163068799503
2026-07-30T14:07:45+08:003.1922658797949994
2026-07-30T14:07:49+08:004.714241341823264
2026-07-30T14:17:11+08:004.948749805870476
2026-07-30T15:09:38+08:004.992234819071284
2026-07-30T15:09:45+08:005.20453486566237
2026-07-30T15:09:52+08:005.171610498524616
2026-07-30T15:09:57+08:005.235440285758658
2026-07-30T15:10:10+08:005.31759589998447
2026-07-30T15:10:14+08:006.1407050784283275
2026-07-30T16:25:02+08:006.160894548842988
2026-07-30T16:25:10+08:006.437645597142414
2026-07-30T16:25:18+08:006.363721074701041
2026-07-30T16:25:22+08:006.4845472899518555
2026-07-30T16:26:26+08:006.669979810529585
2026-07-30T16:26:31+08:007.306724646684268
2026-07-30T17:04:15+08:007.322099704923125
2026-07-30T17:04:18+08:007.364497592793912
2026-07-30T17:04:22+08:007.977791582543873
2026-07-30T17:04:27+08:007.979965833203914
2026-07-30T17:04:35+08:007.992545426308433
2026-07-30T17:05:09+08:008.194440130455039
2026-07-30T17:56:00+08:008.272091939742197
2026-07-30T18:01:12+08:008.428793290883677
2026-07-30T18:01:49+08:008.43174405963659
2026-07-30T18:02:05+08:009.674173008231092
2026-07-30T18:02:19+08:009.712067091163224
2026-07-30T18:06:03+08:009.793135580059015
2026-07-30T18:06:10+08:009.80416213697779
2026-07-30T18:06:21+08:009.805715173163534
2026-07-30T18:06:26+08:0010.038670601025004
2026-07-30T20:07:07+08:0010.05047367603665
2026-07-30T20:07:13+08:0010.044727442149401
2026-07-30T20:07:17+08:0010.117098928405031
2026-07-30T20:07:24+08:0010.125951234663768
2026-07-30T20:07:29+08:0010.174095356421805
2026-07-30T20:07:34+08:0010.19086814722783
2026-07-30T20:07:39+08:0010.350520267122224
2026-07-30T20:07:44+08:0010.366361236216804
2026-07-30T20:07:49+08:0010.242118341357354
2026-07-30T21:55:07+08:0010.242739555831651
2026-07-30T21:55:13+08:0010.160428637987264
2026-07-30T21:55:19+08:0010.165243050163069
2026-07-30T21:55:24+08:008.869079049541854
2026-07-30T21:55:28+08:008.881658642646373
2026-07-30T21:55:33+08:009.052492623078118
2026-07-30T22:04:21+08:0010.521198943935394
2026-07-30T22:04:26+08:0010.576331728529274
2026-07-30T22:04:31+08:0010.628513744370244
2026-07-30T22:05:10+08:0010.799347724801988
2026-07-31T08:47:42+08:0010.857275974530207
2026-07-31T08:47:50+08:0010.862711601180308
2026-07-31T08:47:59+08:0010.862711601180308
2026-07-31T08:48:03+08:0011.076098773101414
2026-07-31T08:48:06+08:0011.060723714862556
2026-07-31T08:48:09+08:0012.427395558316508
2026-07-31T09:02:35+08:0012.511570119583787
2026-07-31T09:02:46+08:0012.620593259822954
2026-07-31T09:03:51+08:0013.043019102345085
2026-07-31T09:03:56+08:0013.043329709582233
2026-07-31T09:04:01+08:0013.156856654760055
2026-07-31T09:12:47+08:0013.110265569187762
2026-07-31T10:12:17+08:0013.146451312315577
2026-07-31T10:12:21+08:0013.318993632551638
2026-07-31T10:12:28+08:0013.312626184190092
2026-07-31T10:12:33+08:0013.406584873427551
2026-07-31T10:12:41+08:0013.410467463891909
2026-07-31T10:12:45+08:0014.792669669203292
2026-07-31T11:13:21+08:0014.835533467929803
2026-07-31T11:13:24+08:0014.933840658487343
2026-07-31T11:13:27+08:0014.966454418387949
2026-07-31T11:13:30+08:0014.980587047678211
2026-07-31T11:13:36+08:0015.018947041466067
2026-07-31T11:13:40+08:0016.13713309520112
2026-07-31T12:03:54+08:0016.309520111818607
2026-07-31T12:03:58+08:0018.66609722006523
2026-07-31T12:04:04+08:0018.71626028886473
2026-07-31T12:04:06+08:0019.457524460319924
2026-07-31T12:04:09+08:0019.53936946730859
2026-07-31T12:04:17+08:0019.55521043640317
2026-07-31T12:06:35+08:0021.325671688150333
2026-07-31T13:43:30+08:0021.39384997670446
2026-07-31T13:43:33+08:0021.405031837241808
2026-07-31T13:43:37+08:0021.317751203603045
2026-07-31T13:43:41+08:0021.419319770150643
2026-07-31T13:43:48+08:0021.431899363255162
2026-07-31T13:43:55+08:0021.97546202826526
2026-07-31T14:13:16+08:0022.226432675881348
2026-07-31T14:13:21+08:0022.295387482528344
2026-07-31T14:13:30+08:0022.567479422270537
2026-07-31T14:13:35+08:0022.80447274421494
2026-07-31T14:13:45+08:0022.806802298493555
2026-07-31T14:13:49+08:0023.303773877931356
2026-07-31T14:14:49+08:0023.925609566702903
2026-07-31T15:05:30+08:0024.251125951234663
2026-07-31T15:05:32+08:0024.418698555676347
2026-07-31T15:05:39+08:0025.076875291194284
2026-07-31T15:05:42+08:0025.16027333436869
2026-07-31T15:05:51+08:0025.130299735983847
2026-07-31T15:05:55+08:0025.64280167727908
2026-07-31T16:17:22+08:0026.007765180928715
2026-07-31T16:17:26+08:0026.159030905420096
2026-07-31T16:17:35+08:0026.489517005746233
2026-07-31T16:17:39+08:0026.561888492001863
2026-07-31T16:17:48+08:0026.631309209504582
2026-07-31T16:17:51+08:0026.83320391365119
2026-07-31T17:09:52+08:0027.210747010405342
2026-07-31T17:09:56+08:0027.288243516073926
2026-07-31T17:10:04+08:0027.35517937567945
2026-07-31T17:10:07+08:0027.53191489361702
2026-07-31T17:10:14+08:0027.680385152974065
2026-07-31T17:10:17+08:0028.565615778847647
2026-07-31T17:24:48+08:0034.4982140083864
2026-07-31T18:00:27+08:0035.068644199409846
2026-07-31T18:01:21+08:0035.124398198478026
2026-07-31T18:01:34+08:0035.194906041310766
2026-07-31T18:04:17+08:0035.46730858829011
2026-07-31T18:04:27+08:0035.46715328467153
2026-07-31T18:04:32+08:0035.48283895014754
2026-07-31T18:05:29+08:0037.237769840037274
2026-07-31T20:56:53+08:0037.453486566237
2026-07-31T20:56:58+08:0037.48687684423047
2026-07-31T20:57:04+08:0037.60987731014133
2026-07-31T20:57:08+08:0037.719055753999065
2026-07-31T20:57:13+08:0037.739555831650875
2026-07-31T20:57:18+08:0038.314179220375834
2026-07-31T20:57:23+08:0038.320701972355955
2026-07-31T20:57:27+08:0038.3276906351918
2026-07-31T20:57:33+08:0038.32986488585184
2026-07-31T20:57:38+08:0038.68706320857276
2026-07-31T21:24:13+08:0038.703370088523066
2026-07-31T21:24:19+08:0038.76191955272558
2026-07-31T21:24:25+08:0038.766112750427084
2026-07-31T21:24:33+08:0038.78335145208884
2026-07-31T21:24:42+08:0039.062897965522595
2026-07-31T22:05:23+08:0039.11321633794067
2026-07-31T22:05:28+08:0039.125951234663766
2026-07-31T22:05:33+08:0039.12719366361236
2026-07-31T22:05:38+08:0039.406740177046125
2026-08-01T09:38:16+08:0039.624320546668734
2026-08-01T09:38:24+08:0039.624320546668734
2026-08-01T09:38:27+08:0040.099549619506135
2026-08-01T09:38:31+08:0040.15483770771859
2026-08-01T09:38:35+08:0043.15219754620283
2026-08-01T09:38:39+08:0044.15048920639851
2026-08-01T09:38:48+08:0044.394937102034476
2026-08-01T09:38:51+08:0044.661593415126575
2026-08-01T09:38:55+08:0044.681472278304085
2026-08-01T09:38:58+08:0045.3337474763162
2026-08-01T10:21:26+08:0045.39431588756018
2026-08-01T10:21:30+08:0045.437645597142414
2026-08-01T10:21:37+08:0045.5429414505358
2026-08-01T10:21:41+08:0045.52710048144122
2026-08-01T10:21:47+08:0045.52849821400839
2026-08-01T10:21:50+08:0046.118651964590775
2026-08-01T11:16:47+08:0046.18186053735052
2026-08-01T11:16:50+08:0046.2085727597453
2026-08-01T11:16:54+08:0046.20872806336388
2026-08-01T11:16:58+08:0046.27255785059792
2026-08-01T11:17:01+08:0046.335455816120515
2026-08-01T11:17:05+08:0046.86348811927318
2026-08-01T12:56:12+08:0047.113526945177824
2026-08-01T12:56:21+08:0047.27830408448517
2026-08-01T12:56:25+08:0048.27038359993788
2026-08-01T12:56:29+08:0048.39524770927163
2026-08-01T12:56:34+08:0048.612983382512816
2026-08-01T12:56:39+08:0049.37397111352694
2026-08-01T15:49:11+08:0049.385463581301444
2026-08-01T15:49:30+08:0049.47631619816742
2026-08-01T15:49:34+08:0049.47755862711601
2026-08-01T15:49:40+08:0049.524926230781176
2026-08-01T15:49:49+08:0050.61205156080137
2026-08-01T15:49:53+08:0050.62960086970026
2026-08-01T15:49:58+08:0050.66112750427085
2026-08-01T15:50:02+08:0050.74204068954807
2026-08-01T15:50:07+08:0050.76409380338562
2026-08-01T15:50:11+08:0050.98151886938966
2026-08-01T15:50:20+08:0051.06538282341979
2026-08-01T15:50:23+08:0051.07734120205001
2026-08-01T15:50:28+08:0051.2188227985712
2026-08-01T15:50:34+08:0051.226743283118495
2026-08-01T15:50:37+08:0052.53129367914272
2026-08-01T18:21:14+08:0052.5531914893617
2026-08-01T18:21:20+08:0052.65864264637366
2026-08-01T18:21:25+08:0053.58471812393229
2026-08-01T18:21:31+08:0053.772480198788635
2026-08-01T18:21:42+08:0054.45985401459854
2026-08-01T18:21:48+08:0056.820469016928094
2026-08-01T18:21:53+08:0056.87202981829476
2026-08-01T18:21:59+08:0057.012113682248795
2026-08-01T18:22:04+08:0057.93679142724025
2026-08-01T18:22:09+08:0058.04100015530362
2026-08-01T18:22:18+08:0058.6438888026091
2026-08-01T18:22:23+08:0061.594657555521046
2026-08-01T18:22:27+08:0061.71191178754465
2026-08-01T18:22:31+08:0061.791582543873275
2026-08-01T18:22:35+08:0061.80975306724647
2026-08-01T18:22:39+08:0061.89501475384377
2026-08-01T18:22:47+08:0062.01941295232179
2026-08-01T18:22:52+08:0062.50085416990216
2026-08-01T20:15:51+08:0062.56810063674484
2026-08-01T20:15:56+08:0062.67681316974686
2026-08-01T20:16:07+08:0063.25889113216338
2026-08-01T20:16:14+08:0063.30765646839571
2026-08-01T20:16:20+08:0063.481596521198945
2026-08-01T20:16:25+08:0063.91644665320702
2026-08-01T20:16:31+08:0063.952011181860534
2026-08-01T20:16:37+08:0064.19195527255785
2026-08-01T20:16:45+08:0064.27162602888647
2026-08-01T20:16:50+08:0064.43733498990527
2026-08-01T20:16:57+08:0065.33809597763629
2026-08-01T21:06:49+08:0065.35440285758658
2026-08-01T21:06:54+08:0065.35471346482373
2026-08-01T21:07:01+08:0065.35719832272092
2026-08-01T21:07:07+08:0065.38406584873428
2026-08-01T21:07:12+08:0067.69808976549153
2026-08-01T22:06:05+08:0068.13262929026246
2026-08-01T22:06:10+08:0068.16726199720453
2026-08-01T22:06:15+08:0070.06196614381115
2026-08-02T09:30:07+08:0070.06398509085261
2026-08-02T09:30:12+08:0070.52042242584253
2026-08-02T09:30:16+08:0070.53812703835999
2026-08-02T09:30:34+08:0070.55396800745457
2026-08-02T09:30:38+08:0070.78956359683181
2026-08-02T09:30:42+08:0070.82419630377387
2026-08-02T09:30:59+08:0070.9776362789253
2026-08-02T09:31:21+08:0073.43143345239945
2026-08-02T09:31:25+08:0073.61779779468861
2026-08-02T09:31:52+08:0073.7122223947818
2026-08-02T09:33:06+08:0073.93601490914739
2026-08-02T10:20:44+08:0073.90340114924678
2026-08-02T10:20:49+08:0073.93492778381736
2026-08-02T10:20:59+08:0074.18387948439198
2026-08-02T10:21:04+08:0074.26292902624631
2026-08-02T10:21:14+08:0074.26448206243205
2026-08-02T10:21:19+08:0074.45084640472123
2026-08-02T12:12:34+08:0074.46668737381582
2026-08-02T12:12:39+08:0074.51902469327536
2026-08-02T12:12:46+08:0074.60677123776983
2026-08-02T12:12:51+08:0074.67013511414817
2026-08-02T12:13:00+08:0074.75865817673552
2026-08-02T12:13:07+08:0075.30222084174561
2026-08-02T12:13:11+08:0075.37863022208417
2026-08-02T12:13:22+08:0075.55303618574312
2026-08-02T12:13:27+08:0075.74825283429104
2026-08-02T12:13:32+08:0075.78769995340892
2026-08-02T12:13:37+08:0075.81487808665942
2026-08-02T12:13:43+08:0076.52927473210126
2026-08-02T14:10:08+08:0076.5441838794844
2026-08-02T14:10:13+08:0076.62478645752446
2026-08-02T14:10:20+08:0076.57058549464203
2026-08-02T14:10:24+08:0076.84081379096133
2026-08-02T14:10:41+08:0076.8428327380028
2026-08-02T14:12:55+08:0077.8833669824507
2026-08-02T14:13:06+08:0077.91396179530983
2026-08-02T14:13:14+08:0077.96505668582078
2026-08-02T14:13:22+08:0078.07283739711136
2026-08-02T14:13:28+08:0078.20220531138375
2026-08-02T14:13:37+08:0078.40410001553036
2026-08-02T16:10:55+08:0078.5145208883367
2026-08-02T16:11:03+08:0078.7466997981053
2026-08-02T16:11:26+08:0078.74732101257959
2026-08-02T16:11:30+08:0078.93197701506445
2026-08-02T16:11:56+08:0079.02624631153905
2026-08-02T16:12:01+08:0079.06445100170833
2026-08-02T16:13:04+08:0079.592483304861
2026-08-02T16:13:10+08:0080.46218356887715
2026-08-02T16:14:09+08:0080.46528964124865
2026-08-02T16:14:13+08:0080.47802453797173
2026-08-02T16:15:07+08:0080.71905575399907
2026-08-02T16:15:11+08:0080.73707097375369
2026-08-02T18:09:24+08:0080.79360149091474
2026-08-02T18:09:29+08:0080.79530983071905
2026-08-02T18:09:34+08:0080.88383289330642
2026-08-02T18:09:39+08:0080.93554899829167
2026-08-02T18:09:44+08:0081.07283739711136
2026-08-02T18:09:50+08:0082.62587358285448
2026-08-02T18:09:55+08:0082.64854791116633
2026-08-02T18:09:59+08:0082.65398353781643
2026-08-02T18:10:05+08:0083.57881658642647
2026-08-02T18:10:10+08:0083.79981363565771
2026-08-02T18:10:20+08:0084.03820469016928
2026-08-02T18:10:24+08:0084.19350830874359
2026-08-02T21:01:20+08:0084.21726976238547
2026-08-02T21:01:25+08:0084.26246311539059
2026-08-02T21:01:30+08:0084.26401615157633
2026-08-02T21:01:35+08:0084.64280167727908
2026-08-02T21:01:40+08:0084.86845783506756
2026-08-02T21:01:45+08:0085.24118651964591
2026-08-02T21:01:49+08:0085.50892995806802
2026-08-02T21:01:54+08:0085.79096132939897
2026-08-02T21:01:58+08:0086.02779934772481
2026-08-02T21:02:03+08:0086.06118962571828
2026-08-02T21:02:08+08:0086.85323808044727
2026-08-02T21:02:13+08:0086.86271160118031
2026-08-02T21:29:37+08:0086.59652119894393
2026-08-02T21:29:41+08:0086.72278304084485
2026-08-02T21:29:46+08:0087.37940674017705
2026-08-02T21:29:50+08:0087.89190868147227
2026-08-02T22:04:58+08:0089.33110731480043
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TradeGo forecast multiple
TimeMultiple
Broker margin funds trend
TimeBrokerMargin funds
Prediction Model 1-Lot Expected Lots— Lots for expected 1-lot allotment—
Multiple derivation
Recent first-day return
+4.6%
→
Participants
20,559
→
Avg lots
133.4
→
Oversubscription
48x
48x = 20,559 × 133.4 ÷ 57,595 margin-weighted 100% → 2155.4x
1x16662.0x
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.49
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.59
This model does not support allocation strategy adjustment

Actual vs Predicted Comparison

Using the actual oversubscription ratio 2513.54x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.495, Pool B α=0.595) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier

Lots Subscription Amount (HKD) Actual Expected Lots Predicted Expected Lots Error

LogoNasn Tech Allotment Prediction Matrix

Rows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates expected ≥1 lot. Non-preset multiples are interpolated from the nearest grid points.

Offering Mechanism

Mechanism B

Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).

Allocation Strategy Coefficient α

α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].

  • α → 0: Per-capita allocation — regardless of lots subscribed, every allottee receives the same number of shares. More favorable to retail (small) applications.
  • α → 1: Proportional allocation — allotted shares are proportional to lots subscribed. More favorable to large applications.
  • Historical actual α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0. α varies widely across IPOs, reflecting each issuer's allocation strategy.
Allotment Rate Definition

The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").

Expected Allotment Lots

Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier

Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.

About this page

This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Nasn Tech (02261): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 22087 allotment-tier records across 592 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation). You can override the oversubscription multiple and the allocation-method α right on the page, replacing cibo's defaults to see expected lots under your own scenario. How allotment rates and clawback work is explained in How Hong Kong IPO Allotment Rates Work.
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.

Cibo — HK IPO Allotment Forecasts, Allottee Profiling & Stock Connect