Keytop Parking 02272Expected Lots

Keytop Parking (02272) Expected Lots
Offering Mechanism: Mechanism B | Min Subscription: HK$2,373  |  Public Offering Lots: Pool A 8,427lots / Pool B 8,427lots  |  Offer Price: HK$39.55  |  Lot Size: 60shares  |  Public Offering Size: HK$40.0M
1x25003.0x
Recent first-day return
-0.2%
→
Participants
18,676
→
Avg lots
141.6
→
Oversubscription
157x
157x = 18,676 × 141.6 ÷ 16,854 margin-weighted 100% → 1256.9x
Margin dynamics · 2026-06-23 11:12 Margin multiple966.85x Margin funds386.7100M TradeGo forecast multiple1256.91x
Rank Broker Margin funds
1 富途证券富途 272.5100M
2 老虎国际老虎 48.7100M
3 华泰国际华泰 18.2100M
4 辉立证券辉立 15.0100M
5 华盛证券华盛 6.5100M
6 致富证券致富 6.5100M
7 盈立证券盈立 6.1100M
8 TradeGo MarketsTradeGo 3.7100M
9 复星国际复星 3.5100M
Margin multiple
TimeMultiple
2026-06-17T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-17T10:11:51+08:000.001250312578144536
2026-06-17T10:11:57+08:000.0027506876719179795
2026-06-17T11:15:56+08:000.007251812953238309
2026-06-17T11:18:17+08:000.013753438359589898
2026-06-17T11:19:12+08:000.015253813453363341
2026-06-17T11:19:55+08:000.040260065016254065
2026-06-17T12:15:05+08:000.04101025256314079
2026-06-17T12:16:42+08:000.04326081520380095
2026-06-17T12:19:05+08:000.044511127781945485
2026-06-17T12:19:57+08:000.04776194048512128
2026-06-17T12:20:40+08:000.14778694673668416
2026-06-17T13:43:27+08:000.16029007251812954
2026-06-17T13:44:46+08:000.16154038509627408
2026-06-17T13:46:05+08:000.1695423855963991
2026-06-17T13:48:12+08:000.1700425106276569
2026-06-17T14:08:03+08:000.17129282320580144
2026-06-17T14:08:58+08:000.1727931982995749
2026-06-17T14:10:38+08:000.25056264066016504
2026-06-17T14:11:41+08:000.25331332833208303
2026-06-17T14:12:34+08:000.40335083770942737
2026-06-17T14:13:28+08:000.41410352588147037
2026-06-17T15:07:32+08:000.42060515128782194
2026-06-17T15:08:41+08:000.42085521380345087
2026-06-17T15:09:22+08:000.4218554638659665
2026-06-17T15:11:41+08:000.4468617154288572
2026-06-17T16:27:21+08:000.44811202800700173
2026-06-17T16:28:05+08:000.4526131532883221
2026-06-17T16:31:22+08:000.4566141535383846
2026-06-17T16:34:52+08:000.4816204051012753
2026-06-17T16:35:42+08:000.4876219054763691
2026-06-17T17:01:28+08:000.5148787196799199
2026-06-17T17:02:41+08:000.5313828457114279
2026-06-17T17:04:25+08:000.5328832208052013
2026-06-17T17:06:14+08:000.5343835958989748
2026-06-17T17:07:19+08:000.5843960990247562
2026-06-17T18:04:22+08:000.5861465366341585
2026-06-17T18:05:07+08:000.5878969742435609
2026-06-17T18:08:44+08:000.7376844211052763
2026-06-17T18:10:42+08:000.7459364841210303
2026-06-17T20:21:56+08:002.496374093523381
2026-06-17T20:23:45+08:002.498624656164041
2026-06-17T20:24:39+08:002.4993748437109278
2026-06-17T20:26:51+08:002.50337584396099
2026-06-17T20:33:29+08:003.2285571392848214
2026-06-17T22:23:58+08:003.282820705176294
2026-06-17T22:24:52+08:003.2960740185046262
2026-06-17T22:27:20+08:003.302575643910978
2026-06-17T22:28:26+08:002.927481870467617
2026-06-18T09:13:17+08:002.9297324331082772
2026-06-18T09:13:22+08:002.9297324331082772
2026-06-18T09:13:30+08:003.1440360090022508
2026-06-18T09:13:43+08:003.4191047761940485
2026-06-18T09:13:54+08:003.441860465116279
2026-06-18T09:14:01+08:003.4431107776944234
2026-06-18T09:14:06+08:003.4433608402100524
2026-06-18T09:14:13+08:003.5028757189297326
2026-06-18T10:04:31+08:003.5081270317579394
2026-06-18T10:04:44+08:003.5213803450862717
2026-06-18T10:04:50+08:003.522380595148787
2026-06-18T10:04:57+08:003.526131532883221
2026-06-18T10:06:46+08:003.5511377844461114
2026-06-18T11:19:24+08:003.557639409852463
2026-06-18T11:20:29+08:003.5588897224306075
2026-06-18T11:22:31+08:003.5663915978994747
2026-06-18T11:23:30+08:003.5671417854463616
2026-06-18T11:24:50+08:003.569142285571393
2026-06-18T11:25:45+08:003.5941485371342834
2026-06-18T12:16:18+08:003.598399599899975
2026-06-18T12:19:07+08:003.60865216304076
2026-06-18T12:20:30+08:003.611902975743936
2026-06-18T12:22:36+08:003.7204301075268815
2026-06-18T12:23:21+08:003.845461365341335
2026-06-18T14:05:30+08:003.8469617404351086
2026-06-18T14:05:32+08:003.8637159289822454
2026-06-18T14:10:07+08:003.8644661165291323
2026-06-18T14:10:09+08:003.8654663665916478
2026-06-18T14:12:40+08:003.9404851212803202
2026-06-18T14:12:43+08:004.215553888472118
2026-06-18T14:14:03+08:004.223805951487872
2026-06-18T14:14:06+08:004.224056014003501
2026-06-18T14:15:58+08:004.225806451612903
2026-06-18T14:16:01+08:004.2265566391597895
2026-06-18T14:19:09+08:004.82845711427857
2026-06-18T15:08:35+08:004.831207801950487
2026-06-18T15:08:41+08:004.886221555388847
2026-06-18T15:08:49+08:004.887721930482621
2026-06-18T15:08:56+08:004.890722680670168
2026-06-18T15:09:12+08:004.915728932233058
2026-06-18T16:12:11+08:004.920980245061266
2026-06-18T16:12:58+08:004.922480620155039
2026-06-18T16:14:34+08:005.46011502875719
2026-06-18T16:16:43+08:005.460365091272818
2026-06-18T16:17:32+08:005.760440110027507
2026-06-18T17:48:01+08:005.86496624156039
2026-06-18T17:50:06+08:005.959989997499375
2026-06-18T17:51:55+08:005.960240060015003
2026-06-18T17:52:52+08:005.985996499124782
2026-06-18T17:53:59+08:006.461115278819705
2026-06-18T17:56:06+08:008.71167791947987
2026-06-18T18:08:48+08:008.737184296074018
2026-06-18T18:08:59+08:008.783195798949738
2026-06-18T18:09:06+08:008.938484621155288
2026-06-18T18:09:19+08:009.213553388347087
2026-06-18T18:14:51+08:009.687421855463866
2026-06-18T20:30:09+08:009.718929732433109
2026-06-18T20:30:57+08:009.970492623155788
2026-06-18T20:33:55+08:0010.12353088272068
2026-06-18T20:34:41+08:0010.112778194548637
2026-06-18T20:36:13+08:0013.063515878969742
2026-06-18T21:34:20+08:0013.070767691922981
2026-06-18T22:08:28+08:0013.525381345336335
2026-06-18T22:09:08+08:0013.531382845711429
2026-06-18T22:09:17+08:0013.536384096024006
2026-06-18T22:10:50+08:0014.511627906976743
2026-06-19T09:16:44+08:0015.211802950737685
2026-06-19T09:16:48+08:0015.236809202300575
2026-06-19T09:19:53+08:0015.379344836209052
2026-06-19T09:21:55+08:0015.420605151287821
2026-06-19T09:24:43+08:0015.548887221805451
2026-06-19T09:30:34+08:0015.753938484621155
2026-06-19T10:16:56+08:0015.755438859714928
2026-06-19T10:19:28+08:0015.75718929732433
2026-06-19T10:20:58+08:0015.77094273568392
2026-06-19T11:42:02+08:0015.779194798699676
2026-06-19T11:43:55+08:0015.792198049512377
2026-06-19T11:45:43+08:0015.795198799699925
2026-06-19T11:50:25+08:0015.845211302825707
2026-06-19T12:08:08+08:0015.845711427856964
2026-06-19T12:10:31+08:0015.850212553138284
2026-06-19T12:11:36+08:0015.897724431107777
2026-06-19T12:12:59+08:0015.90847711927982
2026-06-19T12:14:35+08:0016.108527131782946
2026-06-19T14:18:27+08:0016.111527881970492
2026-06-19T14:18:31+08:0016.122530632658165
2026-06-19T14:19:19+08:0016.122780695173795
2026-06-19T14:19:25+08:0016.12353088272068
2026-06-19T14:25:03+08:0016.131032758189548
2026-06-19T14:25:06+08:0016.131532883220807
2026-06-19T14:27:21+08:0016.33158289572393
2026-06-19T14:28:00+08:0016.33383345836459
2026-06-19T15:17:01+08:0016.32708177044261
2026-06-19T15:18:09+08:0016.328082020505125
2026-06-19T15:19:23+08:0016.33158289572393
2026-06-19T15:21:15+08:0016.506626656664167
2026-06-19T17:10:41+08:0016.508627156789196
2026-06-19T17:10:45+08:0016.509877469367343
2026-06-19T17:14:46+08:0016.609902475618906
2026-06-19T17:14:51+08:0016.759939984996247
2026-06-19T17:17:10+08:0016.731432858214554
2026-06-19T17:17:14+08:0016.746186546636658
2026-06-19T17:21:36+08:0016.74818704676169
2026-06-19T17:21:40+08:0016.74993748437109
2026-06-19T17:22:39+08:0016.761440360090024
2026-06-19T22:46:24+08:0016.803950987746937
2026-06-19T22:57:25+08:0016.816204051012754
2026-06-19T23:06:58+08:0016.817954488622156
2026-06-19T23:07:02+08:0016.81870467616904
2026-06-19T23:10:59+08:0016.8192048012003
2026-06-19T23:11:03+08:0016.820205051262814
2026-06-19T23:21:31+08:0016.845211302825707
2026-06-19T23:21:35+08:0016.870217554388596
2026-06-19T23:21:39+08:0017.220305076269067
2026-06-19T23:25:19+08:0017.20605151287822
2026-06-20T10:20:08+08:0017.20605151287822
2026-06-20T10:21:51+08:0017.20605151287822
2026-06-20T10:24:28+08:0017.749687421855462
2026-06-20T10:25:39+08:0017.77869467366842
2026-06-20T10:27:54+08:0017.829957489372344
2026-06-20T10:28:50+08:0017.82620655163791
2026-06-20T10:33:26+08:0018.476369092273067
2026-06-20T12:20:23+08:0018.481120280070016
2026-06-20T12:23:16+08:0018.48287071767942
2026-06-20T12:24:10+08:0018.483120780195048
2026-06-20T12:24:49+08:0018.61815453863466
2026-06-20T12:27:09+08:0018.793198299574893
2026-06-20T14:14:53+08:0019.104276069017253
2026-06-20T14:15:27+08:0019.107026756689173
2026-06-20T14:16:39+08:0019.11027756939235
2026-06-20T14:18:14+08:0019.112778194548635
2026-06-20T14:19:43+08:0019.58789697424356
2026-06-20T18:33:58+08:0019.786696674168542
2026-06-20T18:35:52+08:0019.79194798699675
2026-06-20T18:38:43+08:0019.844711177794448
2026-06-20T18:39:46+08:0019.847461865466368
2026-06-20T18:41:32+08:0020.372593148287073
2026-06-20T20:12:24+08:0020.35958989747437
2026-06-20T20:13:54+08:0020.360590147536882
2026-06-20T20:15:26+08:0020.357839459864966
2026-06-20T20:16:07+08:0020.355588897224305
2026-06-20T21:10:01+08:0020.360840210052512
2026-06-20T22:08:20+08:0020.503375843960992
2026-06-20T22:09:26+08:0020.80345086271568
2026-06-21T09:48:03+08:0020.93823455863966
2026-06-21T09:48:20+08:0020.93823455863966
2026-06-21T09:48:31+08:0020.948987246811704
2026-06-21T09:48:40+08:0020.940985246311577
2026-06-21T09:48:57+08:0021.541135283820957
2026-06-21T09:49:05+08:0021.779444861215303
2026-06-21T09:49:23+08:0021.810702675668917
2026-06-21T09:49:30+08:0021.78019504876219
2026-06-21T09:49:39+08:0022.06876719179795
2026-06-21T09:49:46+08:0022.093773443360842
2026-06-21T09:49:55+08:0022.084021005251312
2026-06-21T10:07:22+08:0022.097024256064017
2026-06-21T10:07:30+08:0022.100525131282822
2026-06-21T10:07:37+08:0022.08927231807952
2026-06-21T10:08:02+08:0022.614403600900225
2026-06-21T12:36:25+08:0022.618904726181544
2026-06-21T12:36:29+08:0022.625656414103524
2026-06-21T12:38:42+08:0022.64091022755689
2026-06-21T12:38:46+08:0022.644411102775695
2026-06-21T12:41:51+08:0022.64566141535384
2026-06-21T12:44:12+08:0022.654913728432106
2026-06-21T12:44:15+08:0022.656414103525883
2026-06-21T12:49:26+08:0023.60665166291573
2026-06-21T12:49:32+08:0023.531632908227056
2026-06-21T13:06:13+08:0023.533633408352088
2026-06-21T13:07:15+08:0023.537134283570893
2026-06-21T13:08:00+08:0023.537384346086522
2026-06-21T13:09:23+08:0023.262315578894725
2026-06-21T15:48:47+08:0023.40210052513128
2026-06-21T15:51:33+08:0023.404351087771943
2026-06-21T15:52:29+08:0023.408352088022006
2026-06-21T15:53:26+08:0023.421605401350337
2026-06-21T15:54:58+08:0024.22180545136284
2026-06-21T18:31:48+08:0024.246811702925733
2026-06-21T18:35:15+08:0024.250562640660164
2026-06-21T18:36:24+08:0024.42335583895974
2026-06-21T18:37:47+08:0026.12378094523631
2026-06-21T20:06:39+08:0026.121030257564392
2026-06-21T20:08:07+08:0026.177294323580895
2026-06-21T20:09:00+08:0026.185796449112278
2026-06-21T20:09:51+08:0026.18729682420605
2026-06-21T20:11:12+08:0026.8624656164041
2026-06-21T21:05:49+08:0026.865216304076018
2026-06-21T22:09:19+08:0027.00025006251563
2026-06-21T22:10:50+08:0027.07051762940735
2026-06-21T22:11:28+08:0027.182045511377844
2026-06-21T22:15:23+08:0027.482120530132534
2026-06-21T22:15:28+08:0028.282320580145036
2026-06-22T09:05:59+08:0028.493623405851462
2026-06-22T09:06:12+08:0028.493623405851462
2026-06-22T09:06:18+08:0028.50162540635159
2026-06-22T09:06:24+08:0028.50162540635159
2026-06-22T09:06:30+08:0028.483870967741936
2026-06-22T09:06:42+08:0030.35933983495874
2026-06-22T09:06:49+08:0030.3615903975994
2026-06-22T09:06:55+08:0030.817704426106527
2026-06-22T09:07:07+08:0030.8814703675919
2026-06-22T09:07:13+08:0030.62465616404101
2026-06-22T09:07:22+08:0030.630657664416105
2026-06-22T09:07:35+08:0032.60615153788447
2026-06-22T09:19:05+08:0033.20630157539385
2026-06-22T10:09:27+08:0033.53763440860215
2026-06-22T10:09:34+08:0033.674418604651166
2026-06-22T10:09:42+08:0033.676419104776194
2026-06-22T10:09:49+08:0033.730432608152036
2026-06-22T10:09:55+08:0034.67666916729182
2026-06-22T10:10:07+08:0037.777444361090275
2026-06-22T11:14:24+08:0038.17604401100275
2026-06-22T11:18:09+08:0038.548637159289825
2026-06-22T11:19:45+08:0038.77994498624656
2026-06-22T11:20:57+08:0038.955488872218055
2026-06-22T11:22:12+08:0039.12753188297074
2026-06-22T11:22:27+08:0039.805951487871965
2026-06-22T11:23:46+08:0044.23205801450363
2026-06-22T11:35:38+08:0044.819954988747185
2026-06-22T11:51:45+08:0045.01025256314079
2026-06-22T12:09:08+08:0045.77994498624656
2026-06-22T12:09:50+08:0045.81370342585647
2026-06-22T12:12:57+08:0046.16254063515879
2026-06-22T12:15:09+08:0046.170792698174544
2026-06-22T12:16:33+08:0049.12153038259565
2026-06-22T12:17:37+08:0048.30007501875469
2026-06-22T12:21:34+08:0048.342335583895974
2026-06-22T14:14:10+08:0048.59239809952488
2026-06-22T14:17:47+08:0049.42885721430358
2026-06-22T14:17:50+08:0050.54438609652413
2026-06-22T14:21:48+08:0050.51912978244561
2026-06-22T14:21:51+08:0050.569142285571395
2026-06-22T14:24:16+08:0054.645161290322584
2026-06-22T14:24:19+08:0059.4463615903976
2026-06-22T14:26:20+08:0059.46161540385096
2026-06-22T14:26:23+08:0059.491372843210804
2026-06-22T14:28:32+08:0059.40685171292823
2026-06-22T14:28:35+08:0059.563140785196296
2026-06-22T14:32:49+08:0059.56514128532133
2026-06-22T14:38:07+08:0063.409852463115776
2026-06-22T15:11:12+08:0063.43235808952238
2026-06-22T15:11:34+08:0063.99674918729682
2026-06-22T15:12:33+08:0064.26231557889473
2026-06-22T15:14:25+08:0064.28832208052013
2026-06-22T15:14:44+08:0064.3028257064266
2026-06-22T15:16:18+08:0065.12528132033009
2026-06-22T15:17:31+08:0069.75143785946487
2026-06-22T15:17:50+08:0069.84196049012253
2026-06-22T15:34:08+08:0069.74593648412103
2026-06-22T16:03:59+08:0069.9524881220305
2026-06-22T16:06:08+08:0070.02500625156289
2026-06-22T16:06:11+08:0070.14128532133033
2026-06-22T16:09:10+08:0071.01275318829707
2026-06-22T16:12:39+08:0071.12328082020505
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TradeGo forecast multiple
TimeMultiple
Broker margin funds trend
TimeBrokerMargin funds
Pool A α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.54
Pool B α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.64
This model does not support allocation strategy adjustment

Actual vs Predicted Comparison

Using the actual oversubscription ratio 2115.21x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.538, Pool B α=0.638) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier

Lots Subscription Amount (HKD) Actual Expected Lots Predicted Expected Lots Error

LogoKeytop Parking Allotment Prediction Matrix

Rows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates guaranteed allotment (≥1 lot)

Pool A

Oversubscription
1256.9x
Allocation Strategy
α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.54

Pool B

Oversubscription
1256.9x
Allocation Strategy
α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.64
Offering Mechanism

Mechanism B

Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).

Allocation Strategy Coefficient α

α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].

  • α → 0: Per-capita allocation — regardless of lots subscribed, every allottee receives the same number of shares. More favorable to retail (small) applications.
  • α → 1: Proportional allocation — allotted shares are proportional to lots subscribed. More favorable to large applications.
  • Historical actual α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0. α varies widely across IPOs, reflecting each issuer's allocation strategy.
Allotment Rate Definition

The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").

Expected Allotment Lots

Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier

Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.

// About this page //

This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Keytop Parking (02272): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 10,897 allotment-tier records across 356 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation).
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.

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Cibo — HK IPO Allotment Forecasts, Allottee Profiling & Stock Connect