Mabwell-B 02493Expected Lots
Mabwell-B (02493) Expected Lots
| Rank | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
304.8100M |
| 2 |  辉立 |
51.9100M |
| 3 |  老虎 |
36.9100M |
| 4 |  华泰 |
10.9100M |
| 5 |  招银 |
10.0100M |
| 6 |  华盛 |
4.8100M |
| 7 |  盈立 |
4.8100M |
| 8 |  信诚 |
4.0100M |
| 9 |  长桥 |
4.0100M |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-20T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2026-04-20T10:00:30+08:00 | 0.05513334254525356 |
| 2026-04-20T10:03:28+08:00 | 0.20257012574271108 |
| 2026-04-20T10:05:27+08:00 | 0.3822025701257427 |
| 2026-04-20T11:16:09+08:00 | 0.4167472709686334 |
| 2026-04-20T11:16:19+08:00 | 0.6946248445488462 |
| 2026-04-20T11:16:44+08:00 | 0.7434710515406937 |
| 2026-04-20T11:17:03+08:00 | 1.0134033439270416 |
| 2026-04-20T11:17:22+08:00 | 3.0860853945004836 |
| 2026-04-20T11:49:18+08:00 | 3.1620837363548433 |
| 2026-04-20T12:12:03+08:00 | 3.24402376675418 |
| 2026-04-20T12:12:14+08:00 | 3.3549122564598592 |
| 2026-04-20T12:12:33+08:00 | 3.6858504905347518 |
| 2026-04-20T12:13:11+08:00 | 5.2334530882962556 |
| 2026-04-20T13:45:46+08:00 | 5.253419925383446 |
| 2026-04-20T13:46:07+08:00 | 5.465455299157109 |
| 2026-04-20T13:46:47+08:00 | 5.580558242365621 |
| 2026-04-20T13:47:06+08:00 | 6.40272212242642 |
| 2026-04-20T14:01:16+08:00 | 6.4151582147298605 |
| 2026-04-20T14:02:27+08:00 | 6.488254801713417 |
| 2026-04-20T14:04:23+08:00 | 6.606674036202847 |
| 2026-04-20T14:04:28+08:00 | 6.7257150753074475 |
| 2026-04-20T14:05:28+08:00 | 7.68605775873981 |
| 2026-04-20T14:07:52+08:00 | 7.755147160425591 |
| 2026-04-20T15:19:47+08:00 | 7.8440652203951915 |
| 2026-04-20T15:20:14+08:00 | 7.88945695730275 |
| 2026-04-20T15:20:32+08:00 | 7.93104877711759 |
| 2026-04-20T15:21:16+08:00 | 8.26267790520934 |
| 2026-04-20T15:21:43+08:00 | 8.953571922067155 |
| 2026-04-20T16:51:47+08:00 | 9.015130578969186 |
| 2026-04-20T16:52:05+08:00 | 9.041660909216526 |
| 2026-04-20T16:52:19+08:00 | 9.12380820782092 |
| 2026-04-20T16:52:43+08:00 | 11.127400856708581 |
| 2026-04-20T17:18:45+08:00 | 11.166021832250932 |
| 2026-04-20T17:19:03+08:00 | 11.238082078209203 |
| 2026-04-20T17:19:17+08:00 | 11.449081110957579 |
| 2026-04-20T17:20:16+08:00 | 12.678872460964488 |
| 2026-04-20T17:31:32+08:00 | 15.71880613513887 |
| 2026-04-20T18:06:33+08:00 | 15.75335083598176 |
| 2026-04-20T18:07:05+08:00 | 15.768135967942518 |
| 2026-04-20T18:07:43+08:00 | 16.022523144949563 |
| 2026-04-20T18:07:54+08:00 | 16.44742296531712 |
| 2026-04-20T18:08:13+08:00 | 17.00704711897195 |
| 2026-04-20T18:09:22+08:00 | 17.07613652065773 |
| 2026-04-20T18:11:56+08:00 | 17.80447699322924 |
| 2026-04-20T20:08:31+08:00 | 17.80413154622081 |
| 2026-04-20T20:08:59+08:00 | 17.855188614066602 |
| 2026-04-20T20:09:14+08:00 | 18.33881442586707 |
| 2026-04-20T20:09:46+08:00 | 18.369904656625675 |
| 2026-04-20T20:10:03+08:00 | 18.72226060522316 |
| 2026-04-20T22:08:37+08:00 | 18.75300538897333 |
| 2026-04-20T22:08:52+08:00 | 19.2366312007738 |
| 2026-04-20T22:09:12+08:00 | 19.215420754456268 |
| 2026-04-20T22:09:27+08:00 | 19.443415780019347 |
| 2026-04-21T08:32:47+08:00 | 19.589332596379716 |
| 2026-04-21T08:33:43+08:00 | 19.589332596379716 |
| 2026-04-21T08:33:58+08:00 | 19.887867901063977 |
| 2026-04-21T08:34:09+08:00 | 21.09693243056515 |
| 2026-04-21T09:03:04+08:00 | 21.160149233107642 |
| 2026-04-21T09:03:56+08:00 | 21.215282575652896 |
| 2026-04-21T09:05:03+08:00 | 21.624015476025978 |
| 2026-04-21T09:05:14+08:00 | 22.218184330523698 |
| 2026-04-21T09:16:23+08:00 | 22.383998894569572 |
| 2026-04-21T10:12:43+08:00 | 22.402722122426418 |
| 2026-04-21T10:13:01+08:00 | 22.3809589608954 |
| 2026-04-21T10:13:22+08:00 | 22.604394085947217 |
| 2026-04-21T10:14:04+08:00 | 24.020726820505736 |
| 2026-04-21T11:00:20+08:00 | 24.35802127953572 |
| 2026-04-21T11:03:27+08:00 | 24.39076965593478 |
| 2026-04-21T11:03:44+08:00 | 24.305720602459584 |
| 2026-04-21T11:05:20+08:00 | 24.084634517065084 |
| 2026-04-21T11:51:36+08:00 | 24.153723918750863 |
| 2026-04-21T12:11:18+08:00 | 24.184606881304408 |
| 2026-04-21T12:11:50+08:00 | 24.260121597346966 |
| 2026-04-21T12:12:21+08:00 | 24.488116622910045 |
| 2026-04-21T12:13:11+08:00 | 24.568329418267236 |
| 2026-04-21T13:42:09+08:00 | 24.647436783197456 |
| 2026-04-21T13:43:47+08:00 | 25.448873842752523 |
| 2026-04-21T13:44:16+08:00 | 25.525010363410253 |
| 2026-04-21T13:44:23+08:00 | 25.52556307862374 |
| 2026-04-21T14:00:52+08:00 | 25.385104324996547 |
| 2026-04-21T14:02:30+08:00 | 25.44003039933674 |
| 2026-04-21T14:03:42+08:00 | 25.9101146884068 |
| 2026-04-21T14:04:10+08:00 | 25.945557551471605 |
| 2026-04-21T14:14:00+08:00 | 27.03717009810695 |
| 2026-04-21T15:05:14+08:00 | 27.058725991432915 |
| 2026-04-21T15:05:47+08:00 | 27.122633687992263 |
| 2026-04-21T15:06:19+08:00 | 28.117521072267515 |
| 2026-04-21T15:07:20+08:00 | 28.171410805582422 |
| 2026-04-21T16:18:58+08:00 | 28.542835429045184 |
| 2026-04-21T16:19:27+08:00 | 28.56908940168578 |
| 2026-04-21T16:20:10+08:00 | 30.938855879508083 |
| 2026-04-21T16:20:36+08:00 | 30.972709686334117 |
| 2026-04-21T16:21:40+08:00 | 32.35449772004974 |
| 2026-04-21T16:57:13+08:00 | 32.49267652342131 |
| 2026-04-21T17:00:41+08:00 | 32.50594168854498 |
| 2026-04-21T17:05:21+08:00 | 32.482865828381925 |
| 2026-04-21T17:05:37+08:00 | 34.33687992261987 |
| 2026-04-21T17:06:17+08:00 | 39.034959237253005 |
| 2026-04-21T17:39:00+08:00 | 40.20947906591129 |
| 2026-04-21T18:04:23+08:00 | 43.5257703468288 |
| 2026-04-21T18:04:58+08:00 | 43.78140113306619 |
| 2026-04-21T18:05:09+08:00 | 43.88759154345723 |
| 2026-04-21T18:06:18+08:00 | 44.43408871079176 |
| 2026-04-21T18:06:38+08:00 | 44.5194141218737 |
| 2026-04-21T18:06:47+08:00 | 47.98770208649993 |
| 2026-04-21T18:08:55+08:00 | 48.394569573027496 |
| 2026-04-21T21:25:14+08:00 | 48.40396573165676 |
| 2026-04-21T21:27:15+08:00 | 48.926074340196216 |
| 2026-04-21T21:27:43+08:00 | 53.147436783197456 |
| 2026-04-21T21:27:57+08:00 | 54.12850628713555 |
| 2026-04-21T22:09:44+08:00 | 54.355948597485146 |
| 2026-04-21T22:10:14+08:00 | 56.08318363962968 |
| 2026-04-22T08:31:44+08:00 | 63.475749620008294 |
| 2026-04-22T08:33:50+08:00 | 63.88607157662015 |
| 2026-04-22T08:33:58+08:00 | 64.19725024181291 |
| 2026-04-22T08:34:55+08:00 | 64.19725024181291 |
| 2026-04-22T08:57:33+08:00 | 64.6394224126019 |
| 2026-04-22T09:08:54+08:00 | 64.9801022523145 |
| 2026-04-22T09:10:20+08:00 | 65.03371562802266 |
| 2026-04-22T09:10:58+08:00 | 66.42241260190687 |
| 2026-04-22T09:12:10+08:00 | 66.97920409009258 |
| 2026-04-22T10:18:09+08:00 | 67.04193726682327 |
| 2026-04-22T10:20:12+08:00 | 67.33535995578278 |
| 2026-04-22T10:20:25+08:00 | 70.8658283819262 |
| 2026-04-22T10:21:12+08:00 | 71.63223711482658 |
| 2026-04-22T11:01:49+08:00 | 72.19393395053199 |
| 2026-04-22T11:03:51+08:00 | 72.48224402376675 |
| 2026-04-22T11:04:38+08:00 | 72.83812353185021 |
| 2026-04-22T11:05:48+08:00 | 77.46020450462899 |
| 2026-04-22T12:11:56+08:00 | 77.51492331076413 |
| 2026-04-22T12:12:14+08:00 | 77.52065773110405 |
| 2026-04-22T12:12:39+08:00 | 77.7040900925798 |
| 2026-04-22T12:14:07+08:00 | 81.93236147574962 |
| 2026-04-22T13:46:14+08:00 | 81.99074202017411 |
| 2026-04-22T13:46:29+08:00 | 82.15835290866382 |
| 2026-04-22T13:46:47+08:00 | 82.41474367831975 |
| 2026-04-22T13:47:48+08:00 | 84.55651513057897 |
| 2026-04-22T14:07:52+08:00 | 84.60384137073373 |
| 2026-04-22T14:08:24+08:00 | 84.63617521072267 |
| 2026-04-22T14:08:58+08:00 | 87.9801022523145 |
| 2026-04-22T14:10:06+08:00 | 88.09776150338539 |
| 2026-04-22T14:10:27+08:00 | 88.51229791350006 |
| 2026-04-22T14:11:31+08:00 | 89.35629404449358 |
| 2026-04-22T15:10:55+08:00 | 89.39304960619042 |
| 2026-04-22T15:11:30+08:00 | 89.3945695730275 |
| 2026-04-22T15:12:15+08:00 | 94.20319193035789 |
| 2026-04-22T15:12:52+08:00 | 94.66609092165262 |
| 2026-04-22T16:05:19+08:00 | 94.70070471189719 |
| 2026-04-22T16:06:40+08:00 | 95.47657869282853 |
| 2026-04-22T16:07:07+08:00 | 101.22481691308553 |
| 2026-04-22T16:38:14+08:00 | 101.91571092994334 |
| 2026-04-22T17:11:16+08:00 | 102.1408732900373 |
| 2026-04-22T17:12:28+08:00 | 103.01029432085119 |
| 2026-04-22T17:13:07+08:00 | 114.90748929114274 |
| 2026-04-22T17:27:34+08:00 | 129.27808484178527 |
| 2026-04-22T17:41:36+08:00 | 129.8308000552715 |
| 2026-04-22T18:04:39+08:00 | 129.90652203951913 |
| 2026-04-22T18:05:04+08:00 | 131.28831007323475 |
| 2026-04-22T18:05:35+08:00 | 132.1647091336189 |
| 2026-04-22T18:06:13+08:00 | 142.79756805306067 |
| 2026-04-22T18:07:10+08:00 | 144.1793560867763 |
| 2026-04-22T18:12:09+08:00 | 145.6734143982313 |
| 2026-04-22T20:57:30+08:00 | 145.76205610059418 |
| 2026-04-22T20:59:28+08:00 | 148.35774492192897 |
| 2026-04-22T20:59:42+08:00 | 160.17894155036618 |
| 2026-04-22T21:04:18+08:00 | 160.94769932292385 |
| 2026-04-22T21:05:10+08:00 | 167.81518585049054 |
| 2026-04-22T22:04:02+08:00 | 169.37605361337572 |
| 2026-04-22T22:05:49+08:00 | 177.54932983280364 |
| 2026-04-23T08:39:44+08:00 | 178.91709271797706 |
| 2026-04-23T08:39:54+08:00 | 183.67514163327345 |
| 2026-04-23T08:40:09+08:00 | 227.24982727649578 |
| 2026-04-23T08:40:38+08:00 | 227.24982727649578 |
| 2026-04-23T09:05:16+08:00 | 227.98963658974714 |
| 2026-04-23T09:06:04+08:00 | 229.02058864170237 |
| 2026-04-23T09:07:18+08:00 | 244.9111510294321 |
| 2026-04-23T09:09:44+08:00 | 247.85608677628852 |
| 2026-04-23T09:10:28+08:00 | 248.89242780157525 |
| 2026-04-23T09:36:39+08:00 | 249.092787066464 |
| 2026-04-23T10:06:14+08:00 | 249.76951775597624 |
| 2026-04-23T10:06:41+08:00 | 279.4365068398508 |
| 2026-04-23T11:15:06+08:00 | 280.57896918612687 |
| 2026-04-23T11:32:39+08:00 | 294.3139422412602 |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|
| Time | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|
Using the actual oversubscription ratio 481.71x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.501, Pool B α=0.601) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier
| Lots | Subscription Amount (HKD) | Actual Expected Lots | Predicted Expected Lots | Error |
|---|
Mabwell-B Allotment Prediction MatrixRows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates guaranteed allotment (≥1 lot)
Mechanism B
Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).
α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].
The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").
Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier
Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.
This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Mabwell-B (02493): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 10,897 allotment-tier records across 356 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation).
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.
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