Soft Intl 02569Expected Lots
Soft Intl (02569) Expected Lots
| Rank | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
9.9100M |
| 2 |  辉立 |
7.1100M |
| 3 |  老虎 |
2.5100M |
| 4 |  华盛 |
600010K |
| 5 |  华泰 |
406810K |
| 6 |  信诚 |
300010K |
| 7 |  耀才 |
240010K |
| 8 |  盈立 |
110410K |
| 10 |  致富 |
60010K |
| 11 | 卓锐证券 | 58210K |
| 12 |  艾德 |
18310K |
| 13 |  盈宝 |
16010K |
| 14 |  TradeGo |
1810K |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|---|
| 2025-03-19T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2025-03-19T10:06:42+08:00 | 0.4 |
| 2025-03-19T11:48:42+08:00 | 0.4053333333333333 |
| 2025-03-19T11:48:59+08:00 | 1.1386666666666667 |
| 2025-03-19T11:49:07+08:00 | 1.2053333333333334 |
| 2025-03-19T12:10:07+08:00 | 1.2086666666666666 |
| 2025-03-19T12:10:39+08:00 | 1.2753333333333334 |
| 2025-03-19T13:43:22+08:00 | 1.284 |
| 2025-03-19T13:43:40+08:00 | 1.3506666666666667 |
| 2025-03-19T14:02:59+08:00 | 1.3633333333333333 |
| 2025-03-19T14:07:53+08:00 | 1.7633333333333334 |
| 2025-03-19T15:30:44+08:00 | 1.772 |
| 2025-03-19T15:31:13+08:00 | 2.172 |
| 2025-03-19T16:19:34+08:00 | 2.1733333333333333 |
| 2025-03-19T16:19:52+08:00 | 2.24 |
| 2025-03-19T17:08:29+08:00 | 2.275333333333333 |
| 2025-03-19T17:08:37+08:00 | 2.342 |
| 2025-03-19T17:30:46+08:00 | 5.008666666666667 |
| 2025-03-19T17:31:03+08:00 | 5.075333333333333 |
| 2025-03-19T18:20:23+08:00 | 5.077333333333334 |
| 2025-03-19T18:20:43+08:00 | 5.477333333333333 |
| 2025-03-19T18:21:48+08:00 | 5.832 |
| 2025-03-19T18:22:29+08:00 | 5.8453333333333335 |
| 2025-03-19T18:23:12+08:00 | 5.864 |
| 2025-03-19T20:18:16+08:00 | 5.930666666666666 |
| 2025-03-19T20:18:22+08:00 | 5.932 |
| 2025-03-19T20:18:28+08:00 | 6.332 |
| 2025-03-19T20:18:35+08:00 | 6.732 |
| 2025-03-19T22:23:09+08:00 | 6.798666666666667 |
| 2025-03-20T08:39:34+08:00 | 6.865333333333333 |
| 2025-03-20T08:39:42+08:00 | 6.932 |
| 2025-03-20T08:39:54+08:00 | 6.998666666666667 |
| 2025-03-20T08:40:01+08:00 | 7.465333333333334 |
| 2025-03-20T08:40:11+08:00 | 7.465333333333334 |
| 2025-03-20T09:04:29+08:00 | 7.544666666666667 |
| 2025-03-20T09:07:15+08:00 | 7.678 |
| 2025-03-20T10:09:34+08:00 | 7.931333333333333 |
| 2025-03-20T10:09:51+08:00 | 7.940666666666667 |
| 2025-03-20T10:10:14+08:00 | 8.407333333333334 |
| 2025-03-20T11:02:49+08:00 | 8.417333333333334 |
| 2025-03-20T11:05:15+08:00 | 8.817333333333334 |
| 2025-03-20T12:08:48+08:00 | 8.853333333333333 |
| 2025-03-20T12:08:55+08:00 | 10.031333333333333 |
| 2025-03-20T12:08:58+08:00 | 10.231333333333334 |
| 2025-03-20T13:48:02+08:00 | 10.898 |
| 2025-03-20T13:48:16+08:00 | 11.044 |
| 2025-03-20T13:48:27+08:00 | 12.577333333333334 |
| 2025-03-20T13:48:30+08:00 | 12.724 |
| 2025-03-20T14:17:19+08:00 | 12.735333333333333 |
| 2025-03-20T14:17:24+08:00 | 13.602 |
| 2025-03-20T14:17:29+08:00 | 14.468666666666667 |
| 2025-03-20T14:41:06+08:00 | 14.868666666666666 |
| 2025-03-20T15:34:19+08:00 | 14.948666666666666 |
| 2025-03-20T15:34:23+08:00 | 15.615333333333334 |
| 2025-03-20T16:02:25+08:00 | 15.631333333333334 |
| 2025-03-20T16:05:09+08:00 | 15.822 |
| 2025-03-20T17:34:35+08:00 | 17.822 |
| 2025-03-20T18:02:10+08:00 | 17.888666666666666 |
| 2025-03-20T18:02:19+08:00 | 17.890666666666668 |
| 2025-03-20T18:04:19+08:00 | 17.910666666666668 |
| 2025-03-20T18:04:54+08:00 | 19.358666666666668 |
| 2025-03-20T18:05:04+08:00 | 19.329333333333334 |
| 2025-03-20T18:05:12+08:00 | 19.129333333333335 |
| 2025-03-20T18:13:27+08:00 | 19.671333333333333 |
| 2025-03-20T20:12:20+08:00 | 19.696666666666665 |
| 2025-03-20T23:35:34+08:00 | 19.83 |
| 2025-03-20T23:35:38+08:00 | 20.096666666666668 |
| 2025-03-20T23:35:42+08:00 | 20.296666666666667 |
| 2025-03-21T07:44:35+08:00 | 20.296666666666667 |
| 2025-03-21T07:44:40+08:00 | 20.296666666666667 |
| 2025-03-21T07:44:44+08:00 | 20.363333333333333 |
| 2025-03-21T07:44:49+08:00 | 21.43 |
| 2025-03-21T09:26:57+08:00 | 21.696666666666665 |
| 2025-03-21T09:27:01+08:00 | 21.788666666666668 |
| 2025-03-21T09:27:10+08:00 | 22.122 |
| 2025-03-21T09:27:13+08:00 | 22.255333333333333 |
| 2025-03-21T10:07:03+08:00 | 22.35 |
| 2025-03-21T10:07:10+08:00 | 22.514 |
| 2025-03-21T11:14:54+08:00 | 22.522 |
| 2025-03-21T11:15:13+08:00 | 22.588666666666665 |
| 2025-03-21T12:12:28+08:00 | 22.636 |
| 2025-03-21T12:12:49+08:00 | 23.129333333333335 |
| 2025-03-21T12:13:18+08:00 | 24.729333333333333 |
| 2025-03-21T13:41:59+08:00 | 25.262666666666668 |
| 2025-03-21T14:15:03+08:00 | 25.796 |
| 2025-03-21T14:15:14+08:00 | 26.542 |
| 2025-03-21T14:15:57+08:00 | 27.542 |
| 2025-03-21T15:09:30+08:00 | 28.342 |
| 2025-03-21T16:36:01+08:00 | 29.315333333333335 |
| 2025-03-21T16:36:11+08:00 | 29.582 |
| 2025-03-21T17:23:10+08:00 | 29.715333333333334 |
| 2025-03-21T17:23:41+08:00 | 32.382 |
| 2025-03-21T17:23:50+08:00 | 33.51533333333333 |
| 2025-03-21T18:04:15+08:00 | 33.49666666666667 |
| 2025-03-21T18:05:39+08:00 | 33.63 |
| 2025-03-21T18:07:47+08:00 | 33.83 |
| 2025-03-21T18:13:10+08:00 | 34.977333333333334 |
| 2025-03-21T20:22:45+08:00 | 36.71066666666667 |
| 2025-03-21T20:22:52+08:00 | 36.844 |
| 2025-03-21T22:11:49+08:00 | 39.444 |
| 2025-03-21T22:12:07+08:00 | 39.71066666666667 |
| 2025-03-22T11:43:20+08:00 | 40.444 |
| 2025-03-22T11:43:38+08:00 | 40.910666666666664 |
| 2025-03-22T11:44:00+08:00 | 40.910666666666664 |
| 2025-03-22T11:44:11+08:00 | 41.17733333333333 |
| 2025-03-22T11:44:22+08:00 | 41.644 |
| 2025-03-22T11:44:28+08:00 | 41.71066666666667 |
| 2025-03-22T11:44:35+08:00 | 41.977333333333334 |
| 2025-03-22T11:44:48+08:00 | 42.11066666666667 |
| 2025-03-22T11:44:54+08:00 | 42.444 |
| 2025-03-22T11:45:11+08:00 | 43.17733333333333 |
| 2025-03-22T11:45:29+08:00 | 46.036 |
| 2025-03-22T11:45:35+08:00 | 46.36933333333333 |
| 2025-03-22T11:45:46+08:00 | 48.036 |
| 2025-03-22T16:23:02+08:00 | 48.62 |
| 2025-03-22T16:23:08+08:00 | 48.82 |
| 2025-03-22T16:23:18+08:00 | 49.75333333333333 |
| 2025-03-22T16:23:23+08:00 | 49.89666666666667 |
| 2025-03-22T16:23:29+08:00 | 50.03 |
| 2025-03-22T16:23:40+08:00 | 50.89666666666667 |
| 2025-03-22T16:23:45+08:00 | 50.784666666666666 |
| 2025-03-22T16:23:51+08:00 | 51.318 |
| 2025-03-22T19:30:08+08:00 | 51.518 |
| 2025-03-22T19:30:14+08:00 | 51.576 |
| 2025-03-22T19:30:31+08:00 | 52.376 |
| 2025-03-22T19:30:37+08:00 | 53.309333333333335 |
| 2025-03-22T22:03:12+08:00 | 53.10933333333333 |
| 2025-03-22T22:03:18+08:00 | 53.242666666666665 |
| 2025-03-23T12:16:18+08:00 | 53.976 |
| 2025-03-23T12:16:25+08:00 | 55.576 |
| 2025-03-23T12:16:38+08:00 | 55.976 |
| 2025-03-23T12:16:43+08:00 | 56.64266666666666 |
| 2025-03-23T12:16:54+08:00 | 56.70933333333333 |
| 2025-03-23T12:17:00+08:00 | 56.776 |
| 2025-03-23T12:17:13+08:00 | 56.909333333333336 |
| 2025-03-23T12:17:21+08:00 | 57.309333333333335 |
| 2025-03-23T12:17:28+08:00 | 57.909333333333336 |
| 2025-03-23T12:17:36+08:00 | 58.842666666666666 |
| 2025-03-23T12:17:44+08:00 | 59.50933333333333 |
| 2025-03-23T12:17:56+08:00 | 61.04266666666667 |
| 2025-03-23T12:19:24+08:00 | 62.302 |
| 2025-03-23T12:19:30+08:00 | 62.123333333333335 |
| 2025-03-23T20:18:58+08:00 | 62.43933333333333 |
| 2025-03-23T20:19:05+08:00 | 63.19533333333333 |
| 2025-03-23T20:19:12+08:00 | 63.986 |
| 2025-03-23T20:19:45+08:00 | 64.25266666666667 |
| 2025-03-23T20:19:53+08:00 | 65.31933333333333 |
| 2025-03-23T20:20:00+08:00 | 67.25266666666667 |
| 2025-03-23T20:20:07+08:00 | 68.71933333333334 |
| 2025-03-23T20:20:13+08:00 | 70.45266666666667 |
| 2025-03-23T20:20:21+08:00 | 71.71933333333334 |
| 2025-03-23T20:20:29+08:00 | 74.51933333333334 |
| 2025-03-23T20:20:42+08:00 | 73.65266666666666 |
| 2025-03-24T08:37:00+08:00 | 74.586 |
| 2025-03-24T08:37:04+08:00 | 82.386 |
| 2025-03-24T08:37:07+08:00 | 85.786 |
| 2025-03-24T08:37:10+08:00 | 87.186 |
| 2025-03-24T08:37:23+08:00 | 87.186 |
| 2025-03-24T08:39:04+08:00 | 87.666 |
| 2025-03-24T09:16:56+08:00 | 92.13266666666667 |
| 2025-03-24T09:16:59+08:00 | 94.666 |
| 2025-03-24T10:09:59+08:00 | 100.55933333333333 |
| 2025-03-24T12:44:30+08:00 | 139.89266666666666 |
| 2025-03-24T12:44:58+08:00 | 141.85933333333332 |
| 2025-03-24T18:12:16+08:00 | 142.67 |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|
| Time | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|
Using the actual oversubscription ratio 167.09x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.494, Pool B α=0.594) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier
| Lots | Subscription Amount (HKD) | Actual Expected Lots | Predicted Expected Lots | Error |
|---|
Soft Intl Allotment Prediction MatrixRows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates guaranteed allotment (≥1 lot)
Mechanism A (Old)
Mechanism A applicable before 4 August 2025. Initial public offer allocation was 10% of offering shares, with clawback thresholds at 15x/50x/100x, raising to 30%/40%/50% respectively.
α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].
The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").
Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier
Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.
This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Soft Intl (02569): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 10,897 allotment-tier records across 356 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation).
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.
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