Sicc 02631Expected Lots
Sicc (02631) Expected Lots
| Rank | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
1464.4100M |
| 2 |  辉立 |
500.0100M |
| 3 |  老虎 |
218.3100M |
| 4 |  华泰 |
110.7100M |
| 5 |  信诚 |
60.0100M |
| 6 |  华盛 |
58.8100M |
| 7 |  招银 |
35.0100M |
| 8 |  耀才 |
28.0100M |
| 10 |  TradeGo |
6.9100M |
| 11 |  长桥 |
5.4100M |
| 12 |  盈立 |
2.8100M |
| 13 | 卓锐证券 | 1.5100M |
| 14 |  艾德 |
525010K |
| 15 |  盈宝 |
106210K |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|---|
| 2025-08-11T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2025-08-11T10:04:34+08:00 | 0.3615188882364455 |
| 2025-08-11T10:15:57+08:00 | 0.8410647876296731 |
| 2025-08-11T11:03:02+08:00 | 0.8877471129379526 |
| 2025-08-11T11:03:26+08:00 | 0.9856136230182032 |
| 2025-08-11T11:14:35+08:00 | 2.894010569583089 |
| 2025-08-11T11:54:36+08:00 | 3.3751223331376004 |
| 2025-08-11T12:11:44+08:00 | 3.6522802896848696 |
| 2025-08-11T12:11:54+08:00 | 5.580250538265806 |
| 2025-08-11T13:39:18+08:00 | 6.034742611078489 |
| 2025-08-11T13:39:22+08:00 | 6.943726756703856 |
| 2025-08-11T13:40:09+08:00 | 7.62879232726561 |
| 2025-08-11T13:40:21+08:00 | 7.726658837345861 |
| 2025-08-11T14:01:12+08:00 | 8.215893521237033 |
| 2025-08-11T14:04:03+08:00 | 8.471129379526326 |
| 2025-08-11T14:22:13+08:00 | 9.13662164807203 |
| 2025-08-11T15:05:39+08:00 | 9.13671951458211 |
| 2025-08-11T15:05:42+08:00 | 9.145527500489333 |
| 2025-08-11T15:06:26+08:00 | 10.47651203758074 |
| 2025-08-11T16:25:26+08:00 | 11.096887844979449 |
| 2025-08-11T16:25:58+08:00 | 11.615580348404777 |
| 2025-08-11T17:02:53+08:00 | 11.616265413975338 |
| 2025-08-11T17:06:39+08:00 | 11.909864944216089 |
| 2025-08-11T17:47:24+08:00 | 16.411724407907613 |
| 2025-08-11T17:57:37+08:00 | 16.705323938148364 |
| 2025-08-11T18:01:37+08:00 | 17.6020747700137 |
| 2025-08-11T18:02:14+08:00 | 17.654629085926796 |
| 2025-08-11T18:10:09+08:00 | 18.406635349383443 |
| 2025-08-11T18:10:28+08:00 | 18.905754550792718 |
| 2025-08-11T20:32:05+08:00 | 19.806126443531024 |
| 2025-08-11T20:32:21+08:00 | 20.324818946956352 |
| 2025-08-11T22:06:03+08:00 | 20.628205128205128 |
| 2025-08-12T08:34:18+08:00 | 20.62830299471521 |
| 2025-08-12T08:34:21+08:00 | 20.628596594245447 |
| 2025-08-12T08:34:24+08:00 | 20.62889019377569 |
| 2025-08-12T08:35:25+08:00 | 20.72675670385594 |
| 2025-08-12T08:35:28+08:00 | 23.104912898806027 |
| 2025-08-12T08:36:36+08:00 | 23.104912898806027 |
| 2025-08-12T09:01:45+08:00 | 23.744959874730867 |
| 2025-08-12T09:02:47+08:00 | 23.748776668623996 |
| 2025-08-12T09:05:48+08:00 | 24.032589547856723 |
| 2025-08-12T09:09:13+08:00 | 25.01125464865923 |
| 2025-08-12T09:32:11+08:00 | 25.510373850068508 |
| 2025-08-12T09:33:20+08:00 | 25.96486592288119 |
| 2025-08-12T09:48:36+08:00 | 25.971325112546488 |
| 2025-08-12T10:13:43+08:00 | 28.040516735173224 |
| 2025-08-12T10:13:49+08:00 | 29.63574084948131 |
| 2025-08-12T11:12:30+08:00 | 30.643765903307887 |
| 2025-08-12T11:52:53+08:00 | 31.10589156390683 |
| 2025-08-12T12:07:27+08:00 | 31.250733998825602 |
| 2025-08-12T12:07:38+08:00 | 32.10217263652378 |
| 2025-08-12T13:45:50+08:00 | 32.60129183793306 |
| 2025-08-12T14:24:45+08:00 | 33.05069485222157 |
| 2025-08-12T14:24:51+08:00 | 33.98042669798395 |
| 2025-08-12T14:37:55+08:00 | 35.21657858680759 |
| 2025-08-12T14:38:28+08:00 | 41.088569191622625 |
| 2025-08-12T15:06:27+08:00 | 42.74251321197886 |
| 2025-08-12T15:35:01+08:00 | 42.77294969661382 |
| 2025-08-12T16:20:46+08:00 | 43.441280093951846 |
| 2025-08-12T16:20:52+08:00 | 44.899491094147585 |
| 2025-08-12T16:21:00+08:00 | 44.88432178508514 |
| 2025-08-12T17:08:33+08:00 | 44.89577216676453 |
| 2025-08-12T17:08:37+08:00 | 45.338030925817186 |
| 2025-08-12T17:08:50+08:00 | 45.866510080250535 |
| 2025-08-12T17:09:17+08:00 | 48.34253278528087 |
| 2025-08-12T17:09:27+08:00 | 52.257193188490895 |
| 2025-08-12T17:49:38+08:00 | 52.489528283421414 |
| 2025-08-12T18:03:14+08:00 | 52.591113720884714 |
| 2025-08-12T18:03:20+08:00 | 52.62076727343903 |
| 2025-08-12T18:07:25+08:00 | 54.79340379722059 |
| 2025-08-12T18:08:32+08:00 | 59.197396750831864 |
| 2025-08-12T18:09:03+08:00 | 60.17606185163437 |
| 2025-08-12T18:09:57+08:00 | 60.64484243491877 |
| 2025-08-12T19:16:43+08:00 | 60.93178704247406 |
| 2025-08-12T19:16:49+08:00 | 61.91045214327657 |
| 2025-08-12T19:16:54+08:00 | 62.29506752789195 |
| 2025-08-12T19:17:00+08:00 | 62.306420043061266 |
| 2025-08-12T19:17:11+08:00 | 62.314053630847525 |
| 2025-08-12T19:17:23+08:00 | 62.72509297318457 |
| 2025-08-12T20:34:51+08:00 | 63.048052456449405 |
| 2025-08-12T20:34:57+08:00 | 63.05490311215502 |
| 2025-08-12T22:05:29+08:00 | 63.08915639068311 |
| 2025-08-12T22:05:44+08:00 | 63.646995498140534 |
| 2025-08-12T22:05:50+08:00 | 63.62419260129184 |
| 2025-08-12T22:05:56+08:00 | 64.92581718535916 |
| 2025-08-13T08:37:59+08:00 | 66.53082795067527 |
| 2025-08-13T08:38:02+08:00 | 67.08866705813271 |
| 2025-08-13T08:38:07+08:00 | 69.3885300450186 |
| 2025-08-13T08:38:10+08:00 | 70.84674104521433 |
| 2025-08-13T08:38:17+08:00 | 70.84674104521433 |
| 2025-08-13T08:38:52+08:00 | 70.83529066353493 |
| 2025-08-13T08:38:56+08:00 | 70.88177725582305 |
| 2025-08-13T09:01:24+08:00 | 70.95566647093365 |
| 2025-08-13T09:18:02+08:00 | 70.97944803288314 |
| 2025-08-13T09:18:08+08:00 | 73.00528479154433 |
| 2025-08-13T09:18:11+08:00 | 73.10657662947739 |
| 2025-08-13T09:20:16+08:00 | 74.36533568212957 |
| 2025-08-13T09:54:51+08:00 | 74.38813857897827 |
| 2025-08-13T09:54:54+08:00 | 74.51379917792131 |
| 2025-08-13T10:19:24+08:00 | 74.52143276570757 |
| 2025-08-13T10:19:34+08:00 | 76.1159718144451 |
| 2025-08-13T10:19:38+08:00 | 81.58670972793111 |
| 2025-08-13T10:47:56+08:00 | 81.61264435310237 |
| 2025-08-13T11:08:12+08:00 | 84.53885300450186 |
| 2025-08-13T11:36:15+08:00 | 84.6530632217655 |
| 2025-08-13T11:55:17+08:00 | 84.65688001565864 |
| 2025-08-13T12:08:03+08:00 | 86.24613427285183 |
| 2025-08-13T12:08:17+08:00 | 91.0415932667841 |
| 2025-08-13T13:43:45+08:00 | 91.06136230182031 |
| 2025-08-13T13:43:51+08:00 | 91.32472108044627 |
| 2025-08-13T13:43:55+08:00 | 91.32432961440595 |
| 2025-08-13T13:43:59+08:00 | 91.33206106870229 |
| 2025-08-13T13:44:03+08:00 | 91.34409864944216 |
| 2025-08-13T13:44:06+08:00 | 91.39851242904678 |
| 2025-08-13T13:44:26+08:00 | 95.06850655705618 |
| 2025-08-13T13:55:11+08:00 | 94.95419847328245 |
| 2025-08-13T14:00:59+08:00 | 97.52368369543942 |
| 2025-08-13T14:02:21+08:00 | 98.31483656292816 |
| 2025-08-13T14:05:05+08:00 | 98.65404188686631 |
| 2025-08-13T14:05:13+08:00 | 102.09894304169113 |
| 2025-08-13T15:20:12+08:00 | 102.70356234096693 |
| 2025-08-13T15:20:15+08:00 | 102.93628890193776 |
| 2025-08-13T15:20:20+08:00 | 102.9836562928166 |
| 2025-08-13T15:20:23+08:00 | 103.02935995302407 |
| 2025-08-13T15:20:27+08:00 | 103.08915639068312 |
| 2025-08-13T15:20:44+08:00 | 108.38373458602466 |
| 2025-08-13T15:59:53+08:00 | 108.38334311998435 |
| 2025-08-13T15:59:57+08:00 | 108.38559404971619 |
| 2025-08-13T16:02:18+08:00 | 108.40849481307497 |
| 2025-08-13T16:03:32+08:00 | 121.74270894499902 |
| 2025-08-13T16:08:09+08:00 | 159.71491485613623 |
| 2025-08-13T16:29:19+08:00 | 159.7155999217068 |
| 2025-08-13T16:59:44+08:00 | 159.7314542963398 |
| 2025-08-13T16:59:47+08:00 | 159.769524368761 |
| 2025-08-13T16:59:50+08:00 | 173.7155020551967 |
| 2025-08-13T17:03:38+08:00 | 173.75357212761793 |
| 2025-08-13T17:05:08+08:00 | 344.2859659424545 |
| 2025-08-13T17:39:51+08:00 | 442.543942063026 |
| 2025-08-13T17:39:59+08:00 | 442.58436093168916 |
| 2025-08-13T17:40:01+08:00 | 442.58807985907225 |
| 2025-08-13T17:56:04+08:00 | 442.5959091798786 |
| 2025-08-13T18:00:15+08:00 | 452.3825601879037 |
| 2025-08-13T18:12:50+08:00 | 452.4213153258955 |
| 2025-08-13T18:12:56+08:00 | 482.7066940692895 |
| 2025-08-13T18:13:01+08:00 | 566.480426697984 |
| 2025-08-13T18:14:05+08:00 | 600.5820121354473 |
| 2025-08-13T18:14:42+08:00 | 623.5806420043061 |
| 2025-08-13T18:15:07+08:00 | 629.4526326091211 |
| 2025-08-13T20:14:03+08:00 | 629.5306322176551 |
| 2025-08-13T20:14:08+08:00 | 629.5997259737718 |
| 2025-08-13T20:14:14+08:00 | 629.6001174398122 |
| 2025-08-13T20:14:20+08:00 | 710.2714816989626 |
| 2025-08-13T20:14:25+08:00 | 710.2775494225876 |
| 2025-08-13T20:14:30+08:00 | 771.2973184576238 |
| 2025-08-13T22:06:17+08:00 | 771.2984928557447 |
| 2025-08-13T22:06:22+08:00 | 832.5531415149736 |
| 2025-08-13T22:06:27+08:00 | 832.5504991192014 |
| 2025-08-13T22:06:32+08:00 | 901.3506557056176 |
| 2025-08-14T08:48:26+08:00 | 985.1439616363281 |
| 2025-08-14T08:48:29+08:00 | 1148.7669798394988 |
| 2025-08-14T08:48:34+08:00 | 1232.9028185554903 |
| 2025-08-14T08:48:37+08:00 | 1296.3203170874926 |
| 2025-08-14T08:48:48+08:00 | 1296.323155216285 |
| 2025-08-14T08:48:52+08:00 | 1296.3223722842044 |
| 2025-08-14T08:48:56+08:00 | 1296.3223722842044 |
| 2025-08-14T09:06:52+08:00 | 1315.8956743002545 |
| 2025-08-14T09:07:11+08:00 | 1425.5942454492074 |
| 2025-08-14T09:45:01+08:00 | 1700.5991387747113 |
| 2025-08-14T10:08:05+08:00 | 1759.3190448228615 |
| 2025-08-14T10:08:17+08:00 | 1837.4032100215306 |
| 2025-08-14T10:08:20+08:00 | 1840.7306713642593 |
| 2025-08-14T12:18:47+08:00 | 1841.0313172832257 |
| 2025-08-14T13:47:01+08:00 | 1907.5979643765904 |
| 2025-08-14T14:07:55+08:00 | 1954.9770013701311 |
| 2025-08-14T14:08:01+08:00 | 1954.4778821687219 |
| 2025-08-14T15:09:52+08:00 | 1963.4913877471129 |
| 2025-08-14T15:10:13+08:00 | 2014.3819729888432 |
| 2025-08-14T16:13:03+08:00 | 2017.0802505382658 |
| 2025-08-14T16:13:05+08:00 | 2031.8483069093757 |
| 2025-08-14T17:38:35+08:00 | 2076.0350362106087 |
| 2025-08-14T18:00:37+08:00 | 2075.581327069877 |
| 2025-08-14T18:00:58+08:00 | 2079.1045214327655 |
| 2025-08-14T18:01:21+08:00 | 2106.5071442552357 |
| 2025-08-14T18:02:15+08:00 | 2106.6613818751225 |
| 2025-08-14T18:12:10+08:00 | 2118.4322763750247 |
| 2025-08-14T18:12:16+08:00 | 2146.2263652378156 |
| 2025-08-14T20:26:28+08:00 | 2148.1836954394207 |
| 2025-08-14T20:26:33+08:00 | 2168.334409864944 |
| 2025-08-14T20:26:38+08:00 | 2179.696711685261 |
| 2025-08-14T22:24:55+08:00 | 2194.934527304756 |
| 2025-08-14T22:25:00+08:00 | 2209.0370914073205 |
| 2025-08-15T09:09:52+08:00 | 2225.6450381679388 |
| 2025-08-15T09:09:57+08:00 | 2225.6450381679388 |
| 2025-08-15T09:10:25+08:00 | 2246.069778821687 |
| 2025-08-15T09:10:29+08:00 | 2246.069778821687 |
| 2025-08-15T09:10:32+08:00 | 2303.3510471716577 |
| 2025-08-15T09:10:47+08:00 | 2311.278234488158 |
| 2025-08-15T09:10:51+08:00 | 2326.2909571344685 |
| 2025-08-15T09:12:26+08:00 | 2355.81728322568 |
| 2025-08-15T09:47:51+08:00 | 2375.39058524173 |
| 2025-08-15T09:47:55+08:00 | 2380.283910745743 |
| 2025-08-15T10:09:19+08:00 | 2404.0717361518887 |
| 2025-08-15T12:14:20+08:00 | 2400.8863769817967 |
| 2025-08-15T17:04:59+08:00 | 2439.43 |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|
| Time | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|
Using the actual oversubscription ratio 2809.19x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.476, Pool B α=0.576) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier
| Lots | Subscription Amount (HKD) | Actual Expected Lots | Predicted Expected Lots | Error |
|---|
Sicc Allotment Prediction MatrixRows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates guaranteed allotment (≥1 lot)
Mechanism B
Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).
α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].
The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").
Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier
Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.
This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Sicc (02631): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 10,897 allotment-tier records across 356 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation).
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.
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