TRANSSION 02636Expected Lots

Expected Allotment via Similar IPO Matching
返回 Prospectus Allotment Results Allotment Profile Expected Lots Subscription Calculator Cibo Flash
Offering Mechanism: Mechanism B | Min Subscription: HK$3,880  |  Public Offering Lots: Pool A 43,324lots / Pool B 43,325lots  |  Offer Price: HK$38.80  |  Lot Size: 100shares  |  Public Offering Size: HK$336.2M
Margin dynamics Margin multiple0.08x Margin funds277010K TradeGo forecast multiple0.18x
Rank Broker Margin funds
1 富途证券富途 170010K
2 老虎国际老虎 81610K
3 盈立证券盈立 19010K
4 致富证券致富 6410K
Margin multiple
TimeMultiple
2026-10-07T06:00:00+08:000
2026-10-07T10:08:32+08:000.0019036287923854848
2026-10-07T10:08:40+08:000.007555026769779893
2026-10-07T10:08:48+08:000.031826293872694825
2026-10-07T10:08:55+08:000.08
TradeGo forecast multiple
TimeMultiple
2026-10-07T06:00:00+08:000
2026-10-07T10:08:55+08:000.18
Broker margin funds trend
TimeBrokerMargin funds
2026-10-07T06:00:00+08:00富途证券0
2026-10-07T10:08:55+08:00富途证券17000000.0
2026-10-07T06:00:00+08:00老虎国际0
2026-10-07T10:08:48+08:00老虎国际8160000.0
2026-10-07T10:08:55+08:00老虎国际8160000.0
2026-10-07T06:00:00+08:00盈立证券0
2026-10-07T10:08:40+08:00盈立证券1900000.0
2026-10-07T10:08:55+08:00盈立证券1900000.0
2026-10-07T06:00:00+08:00致富证券0
2026-10-07T10:08:32+08:00致富证券640000.0
2026-10-07T10:08:55+08:00致富证券640000.0
Prediction Model 1-Lot Expected Lots— Lots for expected 1-lot allotment—
Multiple derivation
Recent first-day return
-0.2%
→
Participants
11,535
→
Avg lots
54.1
→
Oversubscription
7x
7x = 11,535 × 54.1 ÷ 86,649 A+H secondary · participants ×0.44
1x2974.0x
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.56
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.66
This model does not support allocation strategy adjustment

LogoTRANSSION Allotment Prediction Matrix

Rows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates expected ≥1 lot. Non-preset multiples are interpolated from the nearest grid points.

Offering Mechanism

Mechanism B

Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).

Allocation Strategy Coefficient α

α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].

  • α → 0: Per-capita allocation — regardless of lots subscribed, every allottee receives the same number of shares. More favorable to retail (small) applications.
  • α → 1: Proportional allocation — allotted shares are proportional to lots subscribed. More favorable to large applications.
  • Historical actual α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0. α varies widely across IPOs, reflecting each issuer's allocation strategy.
Allotment Rate Definition

The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").

Expected Allotment Lots

Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier

Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.

// About this page //

This page shows expected-lot forecasts for TRANSSION (02636): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 10,897 allotment-tier records across 356 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation).
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.

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