Margin dynamics Margin multiple810.25x Margin funds971.3100M TradeGo forecast multiple956.1x
Rank Broker Margin funds
1 富途证券富途 582.8100M
2 辉立证券辉立 245.0100M
3 老虎国际老虎 86.3100M
4 华泰国际华泰 35.7100M
5 华盛证券华盛 10.0100M
6 盈立证券盈立 4.0100M
7 长桥证券长桥 3.0100M
8 信诚证券信诚 2.0100M
9 TradeGo MarketsTradeGo 1.7100M
Margin multiple
TimeMultiple
2025-12-30T06:00:00+08:000
2025-12-30T10:03:14+08:000.014932843914240428
2025-12-30T10:03:25+08:000.04354717610744974
2025-12-30T10:03:41+08:000.053391173771585886
2025-12-30T10:06:54+08:000.15349962459330943
2025-12-30T10:34:29+08:000.15366647201134562
2025-12-30T11:16:10+08:000.16868273963460415
2025-12-30T11:16:33+08:000.19212480186869108
2025-12-30T11:16:51+08:000.20280303662300825
2025-12-30T11:17:06+08:000.5615249854008509
2025-12-30T11:17:21+08:000.5965629431884542
2025-12-30T12:14:43+08:000.6054892800533912
2025-12-30T12:15:18+08:000.6960040043380329
2025-12-30T12:15:36+08:000.8294819387669976
2025-12-30T12:15:58+08:000.8880453824977058
2025-12-30T13:48:57+08:000.8908817886043213
2025-12-30T13:49:36+08:000.898640193543005
2025-12-30T13:49:53+08:001.6744806874113622
2025-12-30T13:50:18+08:001.7468924668390757
2025-12-30T13:50:31+08:001.7802619504463169
2025-12-30T14:02:18+08:001.7828480854258781
2025-12-30T14:03:27+08:001.8560941019437724
2025-12-30T14:05:06+08:001.8973888379077333
2025-12-30T14:08:00+08:001.9641278051222157
2025-12-30T14:08:30+08:001.9770584800200217
2025-12-30T15:03:54+08:001.9803120046717277
2025-12-30T15:04:00+08:001.9818136314340535
2025-12-30T15:04:19+08:002.0001668474180363
2025-12-30T15:04:51+08:002.196045716192542
2025-12-30T15:05:08+08:002.1982981563360307
2025-12-30T15:05:24+08:003.0075081338116294
2025-12-30T16:02:02+08:003.038041211312255
2025-12-30T16:03:16+08:003.046884124468174
2025-12-30T16:03:42+08:003.058563443730708
2025-12-30T16:10:50+08:003.1169600400433803
2025-12-30T16:41:31+08:003.117627429715525
2025-12-30T17:12:32+08:003.1219654625844666
2025-12-30T17:12:44+08:003.599899891549178
2025-12-30T17:12:54+08:003.603737382164011
2025-12-30T17:13:01+08:005.063652289980813
2025-12-30T17:54:56+08:007.399516142487695
2025-12-30T18:00:58+08:007.410528072078084
2025-12-30T18:09:13+08:007.669808959706349
2025-12-30T18:09:28+08:007.860265287394678
2025-12-30T18:09:46+08:009.462000500542254
2025-12-30T18:10:37+08:0010.323100025027113
2025-12-30T20:44:29+08:0010.381496621339785
2025-12-30T20:44:49+08:0010.382414282138983
2025-12-30T20:45:13+08:0010.409193292733795
2025-12-30T20:45:28+08:0010.409693834987904
2025-12-30T20:45:40+08:0010.47451405689497
2025-12-30T20:45:57+08:0010.539000583965963
2025-12-30T20:46:08+08:0011.84875281555018
2025-12-30T20:46:31+08:0011.85659464419788
2025-12-30T20:46:37+08:0011.859848168849586
2025-12-30T20:46:50+08:0012.053057478935514
2025-12-30T20:47:07+08:0012.05939768082089
2025-12-30T20:47:19+08:0013.319095686994244
2025-12-30T20:47:39+08:0013.356469508634353
2025-12-30T20:47:54+08:0013.422791357303746
2025-12-30T21:39:58+08:0013.743972637023441
2025-12-30T21:40:11+08:0013.994494035204806
2025-12-30T21:40:16+08:0014.845415867189455
2025-12-30T21:40:29+08:0014.920830900141821
2025-12-30T22:22:51+08:0015.084257946108284
2025-12-30T22:23:06+08:0015.243847501459914
2025-12-30T22:23:15+08:0015.844498206390256
2025-12-30T22:23:29+08:0015.975890548093767
2025-12-31T08:57:24+08:0016.47184449820639
2025-12-31T08:58:38+08:0016.548677734212063
2025-12-31T08:59:01+08:0016.6456160840911
2025-12-31T08:59:05+08:0017.380745807958622
2025-12-31T08:59:28+08:0017.380745807958622
2025-12-31T08:59:41+08:0019.641528322349213
2025-12-31T09:00:08+08:0019.698089597063486
2025-12-31T10:02:28+08:0019.71026945858013
2025-12-31T10:02:46+08:0019.72345040460499
2025-12-31T10:02:49+08:0019.592224910319512
2025-12-31T10:02:52+08:0019.598815383331942
2025-12-31T10:03:03+08:0019.70176024026028
2025-12-31T10:03:50+08:0019.74622507716693
2025-12-31T10:03:54+08:0019.79144072745474
2025-12-31T10:04:54+08:0019.977058480020023
2025-12-31T10:06:04+08:0020.519312588637693
2025-12-31T10:06:08+08:0021.111620922666223
2025-12-31T10:08:46+08:0021.677901059481105
2025-12-31T11:03:02+08:0022.051639275882206
2025-12-31T11:03:14+08:0022.04571619254192
2025-12-31T11:04:47+08:0022.128973054141987
2025-12-31T11:06:00+08:0022.12455159756403
2025-12-31T11:07:35+08:0022.130558104613332
2025-12-31T11:08:36+08:0022.539334278802034
2025-12-31T12:02:52+08:0022.54617502294152
2025-12-31T12:04:49+08:0022.68040377075165
2025-12-31T12:06:01+08:0022.69174939517811
2025-12-31T12:07:37+08:0023.651122048886293
2025-12-31T13:41:20+08:0023.653207641611747
2025-12-31T13:41:23+08:0023.71986318511721
2025-12-31T13:41:26+08:0023.71769416868274
2025-12-31T13:41:29+08:0025.352798865437556
2025-12-31T13:41:32+08:0025.35221489947443
2025-12-31T14:27:03+08:0025.88070409610411
2025-12-31T14:27:07+08:0025.94627513139234
2025-12-31T14:27:11+08:0026.03603904229582
2025-12-31T14:27:17+08:0026.038041211312255
2025-12-31T14:27:24+08:0027.31442395928923
2025-12-31T14:28:30+08:0027.439559522816385
2025-12-31T14:31:09+08:0027.807541503295237
2025-12-31T14:34:34+08:0027.83774088595979
2025-12-31T15:28:21+08:0027.786101610077584
2025-12-31T15:28:26+08:0027.821389838992243
2025-12-31T15:28:31+08:0027.867606573788272
2025-12-31T15:28:34+08:0028.56019020605656
2025-12-31T15:28:37+08:0028.56060732460165
2025-12-31T15:28:41+08:0031.06331859514474
2025-12-31T16:22:14+08:0031.89755568532577
2025-12-31T16:22:19+08:0031.958955535163092
2025-12-31T16:22:27+08:0032.15450070910153
2025-12-31T16:22:30+08:0033.781263034954534
2025-12-31T16:32:16+08:0033.79110703261867
2025-12-31T16:33:14+08:0034.6253441227997
2025-12-31T17:01:27+08:0034.62859764745141
2025-12-31T17:04:11+08:0034.87653291065321
2025-12-31T17:05:10+08:0034.92541920413782
2025-12-31T17:06:04+08:0036.402018853758236
2025-12-31T17:25:28+08:0036.40268624343038
2025-12-31T18:08:03+08:0036.61958788687745
2025-12-31T18:08:49+08:0036.691248852924
2025-12-31T18:09:29+08:0036.69300075081338
2025-12-31T18:10:34+08:0036.73529657128556
2025-12-31T18:13:06+08:0036.960624009343455
2025-12-31T18:19:15+08:0037.77817635772087
2025-12-31T19:57:29+08:0037.77876032368399
2025-12-31T19:58:21+08:0037.77292066405273
2025-12-31T19:59:07+08:0037.974305497622424
2025-12-31T19:59:55+08:0037.96596312672062
2025-12-31T20:06:20+08:0037.90039209143239
2025-12-31T20:06:31+08:0037.92366730624843
2025-12-31T20:07:31+08:0037.909568699424376
2025-12-31T20:08:03+08:0038.52690414615834
2025-12-31T21:37:11+08:0038.65746225077167
2025-12-31T21:38:14+08:0038.71485776257612
2025-12-31T21:38:29+08:0038.94844414782681
2025-12-31T22:12:57+08:0039.112872278301495
2025-12-31T22:13:41+08:0039.17644114457329
2025-12-31T22:13:55+08:0040.319345958121296
2026-01-01T09:20:27+08:0040.3719028948027
2026-01-01T09:22:36+08:0040.56736464503212
2026-01-01T09:22:59+08:0040.843163427045965
2026-01-01T09:26:13+08:0041.3631434053558
2026-01-01T09:27:23+08:0041.3631434053558
2026-01-01T09:27:36+08:0045.00041711854509
2026-01-01T09:28:12+08:0045.48427463085009
2026-01-01T10:07:14+08:0045.485275715358306
2026-01-01T10:07:46+08:0045.74305497622424
2026-01-01T10:08:12+08:0046.25193960123467
2026-01-01T13:16:31+08:0046.24259614582464
2026-01-01T13:18:30+08:0046.24176190873446
2026-01-01T13:20:10+08:0046.34629181613415
2026-01-01T13:21:14+08:0048.42354217068491
2026-01-01T13:22:07+08:0048.86568782848085
2026-01-01T13:22:37+08:0049.27446400266956
2026-01-01T16:21:09+08:0049.28230583131726
2026-01-01T16:22:22+08:0049.28180528906315
2026-01-01T16:23:46+08:0049.30374572453491
2026-01-01T16:25:16+08:0052.0483857512305
2026-01-01T16:25:44+08:0052.68240593976808
2026-01-01T18:18:50+08:0052.688829565362475
2026-01-01T18:21:13+08:0052.93000750813381
2026-01-01T18:21:53+08:0053.21364811879536
2026-01-01T18:22:23+08:0053.72253274380579
2026-01-01T20:36:17+08:0053.72970718278135
2026-01-01T20:36:27+08:0053.72320013347793
2026-01-01T20:37:28+08:0053.72453491282222
2026-01-01T20:38:53+08:0053.99057312088095
2026-01-01T20:39:56+08:0054.29924084424793
2026-01-01T20:40:41+08:0055.25861349795612
2026-01-01T22:12:52+08:0055.25919746391924
2026-01-01T22:13:39+08:0055.260615666972555
2026-01-01T22:15:01+08:0054.867439726370236
2026-01-01T22:15:47+08:0055.70167681655126
2026-01-01T22:16:19+08:0056.460832568616
2026-01-02T08:54:58+08:0056.852924001001085
2026-01-02T08:56:04+08:0057.12638691916243
2026-01-02T08:56:07+08:0057.695169767247855
2026-01-02T08:58:13+08:0060.78184700091766
2026-01-02T09:00:57+08:0060.78184700091766
2026-01-02T09:03:41+08:0060.75581880370401
2026-01-02T09:04:21+08:0060.7626595478435
2026-01-02T09:05:18+08:0060.87669975807125
2026-01-02T09:06:15+08:0061.82773004087762
2026-01-02T10:10:38+08:0061.84925335780429
2026-01-02T10:10:41+08:0061.85284057729206
2026-01-02T10:10:58+08:0062.62968215566864
2026-01-02T10:11:00+08:0062.898723617252024
2026-01-02T10:11:03+08:0065.73512972386753
2026-01-02T11:18:53+08:0066.2598648535914
2026-01-02T11:20:02+08:0066.60657378827062
2026-01-02T11:20:52+08:0066.61157921081171
2026-01-02T11:20:56+08:0066.61466588804538
2026-01-02T11:20:59+08:0066.60515558521732
2026-01-02T11:21:01+08:0066.60840910986903
2026-01-02T11:21:04+08:0066.70876783181781
2026-01-02T11:22:40+08:0067.11404021022774
2026-01-02T11:23:31+08:0071.27688329023108
2026-01-02T11:51:47+08:0071.27705013764913
2026-01-02T12:12:28+08:0071.28781179611245
2026-01-02T12:13:44+08:0072.07191123717361
2026-01-02T12:15:05+08:0072.05280720780846
2026-01-02T12:16:04+08:0077.6004838575123
2026-01-02T13:49:15+08:0077.61691832818887
2026-01-02T13:49:19+08:0077.68332360056728
2026-01-02T13:49:25+08:0077.71744389755568
2026-01-02T13:51:12+08:0077.71852840577291
2026-01-02T13:52:38+08:0078.30900141820305
2026-01-02T13:53:31+08:0080.71160423792442
2026-01-02T13:54:32+08:0080.75289897388838
2026-01-02T13:55:51+08:0081.58713606406941
2026-01-02T14:04:45+08:0081.5921414866105
2026-01-02T14:07:11+08:0081.89572036372738
2026-01-02T14:10:27+08:0082.59239175773754
2026-01-02T14:11:38+08:0085.4788520897639
2026-01-02T14:12:25+08:0089.18369900725786
2026-01-02T15:27:48+08:0089.18044548260616
2026-01-02T15:27:50+08:0089.17277050137649
2026-01-02T15:27:53+08:0089.23583882539418
2026-01-02T15:27:56+08:0089.26445315758738
2026-01-02T15:28:00+08:0089.27429715525152
2026-01-02T15:29:41+08:0089.68782848085426
2026-01-02T15:30:56+08:0092.49920747476433
2026-01-02T15:31:48+08:0093.89713856678068
2026-01-02T16:11:07+08:0094.84207891882873
2026-01-02T16:11:54+08:0097.35313256027364
2026-01-02T16:12:19+08:0097.55251522482689
2026-01-02T16:12:30+08:0097.55426712271628
2026-01-02T17:29:43+08:0097.56419454408943
2026-01-02T17:30:01+08:0097.56602986568782
2026-01-02T17:30:15+08:0097.56469508634353
2026-01-02T17:30:32+08:0097.5695336614666
2026-01-02T17:31:56+08:0098.26812380078418
2026-01-02T17:32:53+08:00102.03053307750062
2026-01-02T17:33:50+08:00150.58313172603653
2026-01-02T17:59:35+08:00150.58972219904896
2026-01-02T18:07:24+08:00150.5963126720614
2026-01-02T18:09:20+08:00151.38825394177024
2026-01-02T18:10:10+08:00153.24860265287396
2026-01-02T18:17:54+08:00154.63260198548429
2026-01-02T20:53:01+08:00154.64569950780012
2026-01-02T20:53:12+08:00154.65879703011595
2026-01-02T21:06:02+08:00157.1064486527071
2026-01-02T21:07:16+08:00157.10711604237923
2026-01-02T21:09:19+08:00160.9779761408192
2026-01-02T21:10:00+08:00165.92500208559272
2026-01-02T21:10:35+08:00169.18686910820054
2026-01-02T22:22:25+08:00169.17702511053642
2026-01-02T22:22:39+08:00169.1769416868274
2026-01-02T22:22:54+08:00169.17752565279054
2026-01-02T22:23:49+08:00169.4013514640861
2026-01-02T22:24:28+08:00171.7539000583966
2026-01-03T08:41:48+08:00171.73346124968717
2026-01-03T08:45:15+08:00174.9105697839326
2026-01-03T08:46:26+08:00174.9105697839326
2026-01-03T08:46:35+08:00188.49194961207976
2026-01-03T10:44:56+08:00188.49478601818637
2026-01-03T10:47:50+08:00189.13372820555603
2026-01-03T10:48:36+08:00191.84499874864437
2026-01-03T10:49:00+08:00193.6469508634354
2026-01-03T13:34:41+08:00193.64628347376325
2026-01-03T13:34:51+08:00193.66338533411195
2026-01-03T13:37:32+08:00195.1313089179945
2026-01-03T13:38:52+08:00201.02936514557436
2026-01-03T13:39:26+08:00203.7990322849754
2026-01-03T16:48:47+08:00203.80971051972972
2026-01-03T16:48:56+08:00203.80954367231166
2026-01-03T16:51:40+08:00205.16334362225746
2026-01-03T16:53:06+08:00210.98631851172104
2026-01-03T16:53:30+08:00214.13973471260533
2026-01-03T19:02:48+08:00214.14065237340452
2026-01-03T19:02:55+08:00214.1409860682406
2026-01-03T19:03:09+08:00214.14165345791275
2026-01-03T19:05:23+08:00217.04571619254193
2026-01-03T19:06:39+08:00221.70910152665388
2026-01-03T19:07:02+08:00223.78635188120464
2026-01-03T21:48:59+08:00223.79043964294652
2026-01-03T21:50:09+08:00224.96070743305248
2026-01-03T21:50:40+08:00227.3966797363811
2026-01-03T21:51:20+08:00229.54066905814634
2026-01-03T22:12:33+08:00229.54125302410947
2026-01-03T22:13:25+08:00230.9377659130725
2026-01-03T22:14:07+08:00235.2174021857012
2026-01-04T08:15:16+08:00235.21806957537333
2026-01-04T08:15:20+08:00235.25152248268958
2026-01-04T08:15:23+08:00235.50296154167015
2026-01-04T08:15:27+08:00235.5193960123467
2026-01-04T08:15:31+08:00236.74255443397013
2026-01-04T08:15:35+08:00251.29164928672728
2026-01-04T12:34:06+08:00255.46283473763245
2026-01-04T12:44:30+08:00255.700425460916
2026-01-04T12:44:34+08:00256.75006256778175
2026-01-04T12:44:38+08:00257.6041545007091
2026-01-04T12:44:41+08:00258.7498957203637
2026-01-04T12:44:55+08:00261.9617085175607
2026-01-04T12:44:59+08:00268.49378493367817
2026-01-04T12:45:02+08:00275.33452907316257
2026-01-04T12:45:07+08:00282.0501376491199
2026-01-04T12:45:26+08:00282.059981646784
2026-01-04T12:45:31+08:00282.06064903645614
2026-01-04T12:45:36+08:00282.06014849420205
2026-01-04T12:45:40+08:00282.0595645282389
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TradeGo forecast multiple
TimeMultiple
Broker margin funds trend
TimeBrokerMargin funds
Prediction Model 1-Lot Expected Lots— Lots for expected 1-lot allotment—
Multiple derivation
Recent first-day return
-0.2%
→
Participants
20,103
→
Avg lots
121.4
→
Oversubscription
88x
88x = 20,103 × 121.4 ÷ 27,723 margin-weighted 100% → 956.1x
1x8342.0x
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.66
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.76
This model does not support allocation strategy adjustment

Actual vs Predicted Comparison

Using the actual oversubscription ratio 1091.94x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.656, Pool B α=0.756) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier

Lots Subscription Amount (HKD) Actual Expected Lots Predicted Expected Lots Error

LogoEdge Medical-B Allotment Prediction Matrix

Rows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates expected ≥1 lot. Non-preset multiples are interpolated from the nearest grid points.

Offering Mechanism

Mechanism B

Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).

Allocation Strategy Coefficient α

α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].

  • α → 0: Per-capita allocation — regardless of lots subscribed, every allottee receives the same number of shares. More favorable to retail (small) applications.
  • α → 1: Proportional allocation — allotted shares are proportional to lots subscribed. More favorable to large applications.
  • Historical actual α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0. α varies widely across IPOs, reflecting each issuer's allocation strategy.
Allotment Rate Definition

The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").

Expected Allotment Lots

Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier

Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.

About this page

This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Edge Medical-B (02675): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 22087 allotment-tier records across 592 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation). You can override the oversubscription multiple and the allocation-method α right on the page, replacing cibo's defaults to see expected lots under your own scenario. How allotment rates and clawback work is explained in How Hong Kong IPO Allotment Rates Work.
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.

Cibo — HK IPO Allotment Forecasts, Allottee Profiling & Stock Connect