Quantgroup 02685Expected Lots
Quantgroup (02685) Expected Lots
| Rank | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
528.3100M |
| 2 |  辉立 |
176.0100M |
| 3 |  老虎 |
114.8100M |
| 4 |  华泰 |
48.3100M |
| 5 |  华盛 |
18.5100M |
| 7 | 卓锐证券 | 9.5100M |
| 8 |  招银 |
9.0100M |
| 9 |  信诚 |
8.0100M |
| 10 |  盈立 |
6.8100M |
| 11 |  长桥 |
6.8100M |
| 12 |  TradeGo |
1.9100M |
| 13 |  艾德 |
700210K |
| 14 |  盈宝 |
458110K |
| 15 |  Funderstone |
253610K |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-19T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2025-11-19T10:04:55+08:00 | 0.01834862385321101 |
| 2025-11-19T10:05:15+08:00 | 0.8807339449541285 |
| 2025-11-19T11:10:16+08:00 | 0.9571865443425076 |
| 2025-11-19T11:10:27+08:00 | 1.3891437308868502 |
| 2025-11-19T11:10:43+08:00 | 8.557339449541285 |
| 2025-11-19T11:10:51+08:00 | 18.037461773700304 |
| 2025-11-19T11:53:50+08:00 | 18.72553516819572 |
| 2025-11-19T12:04:19+08:00 | 19.2782874617737 |
| 2025-11-19T12:04:36+08:00 | 27.189602446483182 |
| 2025-11-19T12:10:09+08:00 | 47.984709480122326 |
| 2025-11-19T13:55:30+08:00 | 48.10321100917431 |
| 2025-11-19T13:55:36+08:00 | 54.415902140672785 |
| 2025-11-19T13:55:43+08:00 | 73.91131498470948 |
| 2025-11-19T14:00:02+08:00 | 73.83639143730886 |
| 2025-11-19T14:00:35+08:00 | 82.7308868501529 |
| 2025-11-19T14:11:02+08:00 | 87.10703363914374 |
| 2025-11-19T14:11:08+08:00 | 101.1743119266055 |
| 2025-11-19T15:02:56+08:00 | 101.25382262996942 |
| 2025-11-19T15:03:04+08:00 | 105.68807339449542 |
| 2025-11-19T15:06:39+08:00 | 107.80351681957187 |
| 2025-11-19T15:06:42+08:00 | 122.17660550458716 |
| 2025-11-19T15:30:26+08:00 | 129.82186544342508 |
| 2025-11-19T16:04:44+08:00 | 129.91896024464833 |
| 2025-11-19T16:04:47+08:00 | 134.6506116207951 |
| 2025-11-19T16:08:01+08:00 | 151.92889908256882 |
| 2025-11-19T17:03:18+08:00 | 154.4518348623853 |
| 2025-11-19T17:03:29+08:00 | 154.5237003058104 |
| 2025-11-19T17:03:32+08:00 | 161.20642201834863 |
| 2025-11-19T17:06:24+08:00 | 189.64678899082568 |
| 2025-11-19T17:58:43+08:00 | 204.93730886850153 |
| 2025-11-19T18:05:51+08:00 | 208.36544342507645 |
| 2025-11-19T18:06:00+08:00 | 211.39755351681958 |
| 2025-11-19T18:06:04+08:00 | 227.8348623853211 |
| 2025-11-19T18:10:12+08:00 | 236.57951070336392 |
| 2025-11-19T19:53:43+08:00 | 236.72782874617738 |
| 2025-11-19T19:53:54+08:00 | 240.9480122324159 |
| 2025-11-19T19:54:00+08:00 | 256.4678899082569 |
| 2025-11-19T20:25:21+08:00 | 259.408256880734 |
| 2025-11-19T20:25:31+08:00 | 269.4235474006116 |
| 2025-11-19T22:25:26+08:00 | 275.1192660550459 |
| 2025-11-19T22:25:31+08:00 | 293.0091743119266 |
| 2025-11-19T22:25:52+08:00 | 297.9847094801223 |
| 2025-11-19T22:26:03+08:00 | 316.7920489296636 |
| 2025-11-20T08:36:42+08:00 | 325.5749235474006 |
| 2025-11-20T08:36:45+08:00 | 340.4288990825688 |
| 2025-11-20T08:37:37+08:00 | 340.4288990825688 |
| 2025-11-20T08:37:42+08:00 | 427.66131498470946 |
| 2025-11-20T09:10:17+08:00 | 448.2217125382263 |
| 2025-11-20T09:10:38+08:00 | 451.85168195718654 |
| 2025-11-20T09:11:02+08:00 | 455.66743119266056 |
| 2025-11-20T09:11:05+08:00 | 467.05886850152905 |
| 2025-11-20T09:27:38+08:00 | 482.42584097859327 |
| 2025-11-20T10:04:29+08:00 | 482.73776758409787 |
| 2025-11-20T10:04:49+08:00 | 493.37538226299694 |
| 2025-11-20T10:06:04+08:00 | 520.59250764526 |
| 2025-11-20T11:05:08+08:00 | 520.7415902140673 |
| 2025-11-20T11:05:41+08:00 | 525.7148318042813 |
| 2025-11-20T11:05:44+08:00 | 554.9961773700306 |
| 2025-11-20T11:43:56+08:00 | 562.5649847094801 |
| 2025-11-20T12:05:58+08:00 | 562.6620795107034 |
| 2025-11-20T12:06:36+08:00 | 568.7461773700306 |
| 2025-11-20T12:06:44+08:00 | 588.8532110091743 |
| 2025-11-20T13:45:16+08:00 | 588.8853211009174 |
| 2025-11-20T13:45:32+08:00 | 592.2645259938838 |
| 2025-11-20T13:45:38+08:00 | 610.5366972477065 |
| 2025-11-20T14:09:18+08:00 | 615.7866972477065 |
| 2025-11-20T14:09:55+08:00 | 620.5145259938838 |
| 2025-11-20T14:10:11+08:00 | 623.2844036697247 |
| 2025-11-20T14:10:14+08:00 | 641.7859327217126 |
| 2025-11-20T15:11:42+08:00 | 657.0764525993884 |
| 2025-11-20T15:12:20+08:00 | 657.2461773700306 |
| 2025-11-20T15:12:36+08:00 | 660.4365443425077 |
| 2025-11-20T15:12:40+08:00 | 675.1918960244649 |
| 2025-11-20T16:05:48+08:00 | 675.8960244648318 |
| 2025-11-20T16:06:17+08:00 | 683.1735474006116 |
| 2025-11-20T16:06:25+08:00 | 698.9992354740061 |
| 2025-11-20T17:11:27+08:00 | 712.684250764526 |
| 2025-11-20T17:11:32+08:00 | 713.0420489296636 |
| 2025-11-20T17:12:21+08:00 | 768.2920489296636 |
| 2025-11-20T17:12:31+08:00 | 787.1758409785933 |
| 2025-11-20T18:00:26+08:00 | 855.9831804281346 |
| 2025-11-20T18:00:57+08:00 | 856.5290519877676 |
| 2025-11-20T18:08:05+08:00 | 872.1108562691131 |
| 2025-11-20T18:08:11+08:00 | 966.3004587155963 |
| 2025-11-20T18:09:37+08:00 | 1001.9793577981651 |
| 2025-11-20T20:34:14+08:00 | 1007.3310397553516 |
| 2025-11-20T20:34:31+08:00 | 1009.9892966360857 |
| 2025-11-20T20:35:07+08:00 | 1023.1460244648318 |
| 2025-11-20T20:35:12+08:00 | 1076.204128440367 |
| 2025-11-20T20:36:23+08:00 | 1084.5221712538225 |
| 2025-11-20T20:36:28+08:00 | 1125.2714067278287 |
| 2025-11-20T21:29:14+08:00 | 1136.5412844036698 |
| 2025-11-20T21:29:19+08:00 | 1177.2140672782875 |
| 2025-11-20T22:15:57+08:00 | 1189.3256880733945 |
| 2025-11-20T22:16:02+08:00 | 1227.7048929663608 |
| 2025-11-21T08:50:45+08:00 | 1235.3822629969418 |
| 2025-11-21T08:50:48+08:00 | 1248.1827217125383 |
| 2025-11-21T08:51:13+08:00 | 1248.1827217125383 |
| 2025-11-21T08:51:23+08:00 | 1372.4181957186545 |
| 2025-11-21T09:03:56+08:00 | 1402.5237003058105 |
| 2025-11-21T09:04:44+08:00 | 1402.703363914373 |
| 2025-11-21T09:04:58+08:00 | 1407.42125382263 |
| 2025-11-21T09:05:23+08:00 | 1432.6506116207952 |
| 2025-11-21T10:13:52+08:00 | 1438.3899082568807 |
| 2025-11-21T10:14:04+08:00 | 1460.9044342507646 |
| 2025-11-21T10:14:17+08:00 | 1476.1949541284403 |
| 2025-11-21T10:14:28+08:00 | 1523.519113149847 |
| 2025-11-21T11:25:28+08:00 | 1527.454128440367 |
| 2025-11-21T11:26:03+08:00 | 1536.3539755351683 |
| 2025-11-21T11:26:12+08:00 | 1566.7056574923547 |
| 2025-11-21T12:01:02+08:00 | 1567.6727828746177 |
| 2025-11-21T12:16:00+08:00 | 1571.7981651376147 |
| 2025-11-21T12:16:03+08:00 | 1598.8623853211009 |
| 2025-11-21T13:49:10+08:00 | 1599.441131498471 |
| 2025-11-21T13:50:05+08:00 | 1603.3371559633028 |
| 2025-11-21T13:50:18+08:00 | 1620.6154434250764 |
| 2025-11-21T13:57:53+08:00 | 1632.847859327217 |
| 2025-11-21T14:04:35+08:00 | 1633.539755351682 |
| 2025-11-21T14:05:28+08:00 | 1650.191131498471 |
| 2025-11-21T14:05:56+08:00 | 1662.1941896024464 |
| 2025-11-21T14:06:11+08:00 | 1667.144495412844 |
| 2025-11-21T15:06:26+08:00 | 1705.3707951070337 |
| 2025-11-21T15:07:39+08:00 | 1711.6123853211009 |
| 2025-11-21T15:07:52+08:00 | 1716.5168195718654 |
| 2025-11-21T15:08:02+08:00 | 1750.538226299694 |
| 2025-11-21T16:21:02+08:00 | 1759.9587155963302 |
| 2025-11-21T16:21:16+08:00 | 1789.0871559633028 |
| 2025-11-21T17:05:22+08:00 | 2003.1544342507646 |
| 2025-11-21T17:07:36+08:00 | 2035.4006116207952 |
| 2025-11-21T17:07:48+08:00 | 2154.4373088685015 |
| 2025-11-21T18:03:39+08:00 | 2172.9212538226298 |
| 2025-11-21T18:12:30+08:00 | 2191.269877675841 |
| 2025-11-21T18:13:01+08:00 | 2269.863149847095 |
| 2025-11-21T18:14:41+08:00 | 2302.1559633027523 |
| 2025-11-21T20:18:07+08:00 | 2311.3195718654433 |
| 2025-11-21T20:18:20+08:00 | 2348.2461773700306 |
| 2025-11-21T20:19:08+08:00 | 2350.8455657492354 |
| 2025-11-21T20:19:15+08:00 | 2373.322629969419 |
| 2025-11-21T21:14:50+08:00 | 2377.2683486238534 |
| 2025-11-21T21:14:55+08:00 | 2406.243883792049 |
| 2025-11-21T22:09:16+08:00 | 2408.6337920489295 |
| 2025-11-21T22:09:21+08:00 | 2432.2576452599387 |
| 2025-11-22T08:41:43+08:00 | 2440.4304281345567 |
| 2025-11-22T08:41:53+08:00 | 2465.348623853211 |
| 2025-11-22T08:42:19+08:00 | 2610.1498470948013 |
| 2025-11-22T08:42:58+08:00 | 2610.1498470948013 |
| 2025-11-22T09:23:43+08:00 | 2614.62996941896 |
| 2025-11-22T09:24:25+08:00 | 2637.489296636086 |
| 2025-11-22T10:40:22+08:00 | 2642.1613149847094 |
| 2025-11-22T10:40:25+08:00 | 2673.2010703363912 |
| 2025-11-22T11:41:50+08:00 | 2677.5290519877676 |
| 2025-11-22T11:42:04+08:00 | 2698.0183486238534 |
| 2025-11-22T14:20:00+08:00 | 2703.4915902140674 |
| 2025-11-22T14:20:09+08:00 | 2706.9701834862385 |
| 2025-11-22T14:20:17+08:00 | 2711.402140672783 |
| 2025-11-22T14:20:57+08:00 | 2738.0076452599387 |
| 2025-11-22T14:21:04+08:00 | 2754.0626911314985 |
| 2025-11-22T14:21:13+08:00 | 2777.6100917431195 |
| 2025-11-22T19:34:59+08:00 | 2781.262996941896 |
| 2025-11-22T19:35:10+08:00 | 2783.109327217125 |
| 2025-11-22T19:35:15+08:00 | 2789.5611620795107 |
| 2025-11-22T19:35:18+08:00 | 2791.9181957186543 |
| 2025-11-22T19:35:23+08:00 | 2796.353211009174 |
| 2025-11-22T19:37:55+08:00 | 2809.579510703364 |
| 2025-11-22T19:37:59+08:00 | 2827.8516819571864 |
| 2025-11-22T19:38:04+08:00 | 2842.071865443425 |
| 2025-11-22T19:38:08+08:00 | 2857.0565749235475 |
| 2025-11-22T19:38:12+08:00 | 2873.0351681957186 |
| 2025-11-23T09:45:29+08:00 | 2920.282874617737 |
| 2025-11-23T09:46:14+08:00 | 2932.7668195718657 |
| 2025-11-23T09:46:58+08:00 | 2954.670489296636 |
| 2025-11-23T09:47:03+08:00 | 3068.737767584098 |
| 2025-11-23T09:47:49+08:00 | 3072.9762996941895 |
| 2025-11-23T09:47:54+08:00 | 3094.7652905198775 |
| 2025-11-23T10:15:08+08:00 | 3104.7675840978595 |
| 2025-11-23T10:15:13+08:00 | 3146.587155963303 |
| 2025-11-23T14:03:07+08:00 | 3204.538226299694 |
| 2025-11-23T14:03:17+08:00 | 3216.1016819571864 |
| 2025-11-23T14:03:43+08:00 | 3228.9655963302753 |
| 2025-11-23T14:03:49+08:00 | 3288.5221712538228 |
| 2025-11-23T14:04:19+08:00 | 3302.940366972477 |
| 2025-11-23T14:04:26+08:00 | 3364.3318042813457 |
| 2025-11-23T14:04:50+08:00 | 3373.8608562691134 |
| 2025-11-23T14:08:11+08:00 | 3422.178899082569 |
| 2025-11-23T16:14:43+08:00 | 3430.5145259938836 |
| 2025-11-23T16:14:48+08:00 | 3482.5787461773702 |
| 2025-11-23T16:15:18+08:00 | 3488.7270642201834 |
| 2025-11-23T16:15:22+08:00 | 3533.987003058104 |
| 2025-11-23T19:53:50+08:00 | 3547.5045871559632 |
| 2025-11-23T19:53:55+08:00 | 3599.645259938838 |
| 2025-11-23T19:54:29+08:00 | 3612.2331804281343 |
| 2025-11-23T19:54:34+08:00 | 3689.756116207951 |
| 2025-11-23T19:55:04+08:00 | 3697.900611620795 |
| 2025-11-23T19:55:09+08:00 | 3757.9923547400613 |
| 2025-11-23T20:04:37+08:00 | 3772.276758409786 |
| 2025-11-23T20:05:29+08:00 | 3851.863914373089 |
| 2025-11-23T21:09:42+08:00 | 3874.1949541284403 |
| 2025-11-23T21:09:47+08:00 | 3980.2347094801225 |
| 2025-11-23T22:03:41+08:00 | 4011.506116207951 |
| 2025-11-23T22:08:59+08:00 | 4161.582568807339 |
| 2025-11-24T08:40:42+08:00 | 4182.014525993884 |
| 2025-11-24T08:40:45+08:00 | 4293.370795107034 |
| 2025-11-24T08:40:54+08:00 | 5129.456422018348 |
| 2025-11-24T08:41:00+08:00 | 5129.456422018348 |
| 2025-11-24T09:08:14+08:00 | 5180.694189602446 |
| 2025-11-24T09:08:25+08:00 | 5226.565749235474 |
| 2025-11-24T09:09:28+08:00 | 5604.7767584097855 |
| 2025-11-24T09:11:41+08:00 | 5815.612385321101 |
| 2025-11-24T09:35:34+08:00 | 5884.4197247706425 |
| 2025-11-24T10:07:45+08:00 | 5956.80122324159 |
| 2025-11-24T10:08:00+08:00 | 5979.6995412844035 |
| 2025-11-24T18:14:42+08:00 | 7027.100152905199 |
| 2025-11-24T18:16:06+08:00 | 7102.52 |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|
| Time | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|
Using the actual oversubscription ratio 9366.28x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.523, Pool B α=0.623) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier
| Lots | Subscription Amount (HKD) | Actual Expected Lots | Predicted Expected Lots | Error |
|---|
Quantgroup Allotment Prediction MatrixRows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates guaranteed allotment (≥1 lot)
Mechanism B
Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).
α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].
The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").
Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier
Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.
This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Quantgroup (02685): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 10,897 allotment-tier records across 356 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation).
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.
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