Jinyan Kaolin 02693Expected Lots
Jinyan Kaolin (02693) Expected Lots
| Rank | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
594.7100M |
| 2 |  辉立 |
150.0100M |
| 3 |  老虎 |
129.9100M |
| 4 |  华泰 |
57.2100M |
| 5 |  华盛 |
23.5100M |
| 6 |  信诚 |
10.0100M |
| 7 | 卓锐证券 | 9.5100M |
| 8 |  盈立 |
8.4100M |
| 9 |  长桥 |
5.8100M |
| 11 |  TradeGo |
764410K |
| 12 |  艾德 |
674410K |
| 13 |  盈宝 |
438910K |
| 14 |  Funderstone |
46510K |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-25T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2025-11-25T10:00:47+08:00 | 0.02874859075535513 |
| 2025-11-25T10:04:35+08:00 | 0.03269447576099211 |
| 2025-11-25T10:04:52+08:00 | 0.4081172491544532 |
| 2025-11-25T10:05:54+08:00 | 0.4644870349492672 |
| 2025-11-25T11:11:03+08:00 | 0.5924464487034949 |
| 2025-11-25T11:11:32+08:00 | 0.6189402480270575 |
| 2025-11-25T11:11:37+08:00 | 0.6753100338218715 |
| 2025-11-25T11:11:57+08:00 | 1.6031567080045095 |
| 2025-11-25T11:12:06+08:00 | 2.617812852311161 |
| 2025-11-25T12:03:45+08:00 | 2.6871476888387824 |
| 2025-11-25T12:04:03+08:00 | 3.1307779030439686 |
| 2025-11-25T12:04:24+08:00 | 4.569898534385569 |
| 2025-11-25T12:07:10+08:00 | 6.035512965050732 |
| 2025-11-25T13:43:56+08:00 | 6.058624577226607 |
| 2025-11-25T13:44:09+08:00 | 6.3286358511837655 |
| 2025-11-25T13:44:27+08:00 | 7.405862457722661 |
| 2025-11-25T13:44:36+08:00 | 9.09695603156708 |
| 2025-11-25T13:45:39+08:00 | 9.322435174746335 |
| 2025-11-25T14:09:14+08:00 | 9.395152198421647 |
| 2025-11-25T14:10:11+08:00 | 9.668545659526494 |
| 2025-11-25T14:10:21+08:00 | 9.799323562570462 |
| 2025-11-25T14:10:34+08:00 | 11.60315670800451 |
| 2025-11-25T14:11:46+08:00 | 12.5608793686584 |
| 2025-11-25T15:08:33+08:00 | 12.670800450958286 |
| 2025-11-25T15:08:48+08:00 | 13.020856820744081 |
| 2025-11-25T15:08:59+08:00 | 14.260992108229988 |
| 2025-11-25T15:09:10+08:00 | 15.031003382187148 |
| 2025-11-25T15:48:18+08:00 | 16.722096956031567 |
| 2025-11-25T16:19:10+08:00 | 16.74295377677565 |
| 2025-11-25T16:19:31+08:00 | 18.919954904171362 |
| 2025-11-25T16:19:53+08:00 | 20.329199549041714 |
| 2025-11-25T16:20:09+08:00 | 20.407553551296505 |
| 2025-11-25T17:07:22+08:00 | 21.140360766629087 |
| 2025-11-25T17:07:33+08:00 | 26.777339346110484 |
| 2025-11-25T17:07:55+08:00 | 35.40191657271702 |
| 2025-11-25T17:08:06+08:00 | 42.84216459977452 |
| 2025-11-25T17:08:18+08:00 | 42.88049605411499 |
| 2025-11-25T17:08:58+08:00 | 42.93348365276212 |
| 2025-11-25T18:00:26+08:00 | 43.72266065388951 |
| 2025-11-25T18:00:37+08:00 | 43.738444193912066 |
| 2025-11-25T18:14:04+08:00 | 46.55186020293123 |
| 2025-11-25T18:14:16+08:00 | 48.193348365276215 |
| 2025-11-25T18:14:29+08:00 | 61.102029312288614 |
| 2025-11-25T18:16:45+08:00 | 63.910935738444195 |
| 2025-11-25T20:15:36+08:00 | 63.93855693348365 |
| 2025-11-25T20:15:51+08:00 | 64.6228861330327 |
| 2025-11-25T20:16:02+08:00 | 67.99549041713641 |
| 2025-11-25T20:16:12+08:00 | 72.95603156708005 |
| 2025-11-25T20:16:37+08:00 | 73.0783540022548 |
| 2025-11-25T20:16:47+08:00 | 75.19278466741827 |
| 2025-11-25T20:16:58+08:00 | 79.19503945885006 |
| 2025-11-25T22:03:58+08:00 | 80.05580608793687 |
| 2025-11-25T22:04:08+08:00 | 81.71645997745209 |
| 2025-11-25T22:04:20+08:00 | 89.77733934611048 |
| 2025-11-25T22:04:30+08:00 | 90.32919954904172 |
| 2025-11-25T22:04:53+08:00 | 93.77001127395715 |
| 2025-11-25T22:05:38+08:00 | 100.19616685456596 |
| 2025-11-26T08:36:18+08:00 | 100.86245772266065 |
| 2025-11-26T08:36:21+08:00 | 101.82976324689966 |
| 2025-11-26T08:36:50+08:00 | 101.82976324689966 |
| 2025-11-26T08:37:04+08:00 | 104.26099210822998 |
| 2025-11-26T08:37:11+08:00 | 111.42333709131906 |
| 2025-11-26T08:37:29+08:00 | 138.9881623449831 |
| 2025-11-26T09:03:26+08:00 | 139.9334836527621 |
| 2025-11-26T09:04:00+08:00 | 144.42051860202932 |
| 2025-11-26T09:04:32+08:00 | 151.25591882750845 |
| 2025-11-26T09:05:56+08:00 | 161.45885005636978 |
| 2025-11-26T09:06:04+08:00 | 162.05298759864712 |
| 2025-11-26T09:19:32+08:00 | 168.8173618940248 |
| 2025-11-26T10:04:29+08:00 | 172.98647125140926 |
| 2025-11-26T10:04:51+08:00 | 179.3196166854566 |
| 2025-11-26T10:05:18+08:00 | 180.62006764374294 |
| 2025-11-26T10:05:35+08:00 | 196.29086809470124 |
| 2025-11-26T11:09:11+08:00 | 197.73055242390078 |
| 2025-11-26T11:09:50+08:00 | 198.37598647125142 |
| 2025-11-26T11:10:02+08:00 | 202.6183765501691 |
| 2025-11-26T11:10:14+08:00 | 210.84836527621195 |
| 2025-11-26T11:52:30+08:00 | 212.9904171364149 |
| 2025-11-26T12:05:14+08:00 | 213.3455467869222 |
| 2025-11-26T12:05:32+08:00 | 213.98308906426155 |
| 2025-11-26T12:05:35+08:00 | 217.96899661781285 |
| 2025-11-26T12:05:48+08:00 | 228.2846674182638 |
| 2025-11-26T13:52:43+08:00 | 228.69334836527622 |
| 2025-11-26T13:53:12+08:00 | 228.94870349492672 |
| 2025-11-26T13:53:29+08:00 | 230.1781285231116 |
| 2025-11-26T13:53:42+08:00 | 235.08229988726043 |
| 2025-11-26T14:04:28+08:00 | 235.56764374295378 |
| 2025-11-26T14:04:58+08:00 | 235.82468996617814 |
| 2025-11-26T14:05:14+08:00 | 239.57948139797068 |
| 2025-11-26T14:05:29+08:00 | 249.61330326944758 |
| 2025-11-26T14:09:22+08:00 | 257.750281848929 |
| 2025-11-26T15:03:21+08:00 | 258.4464487034949 |
| 2025-11-26T15:03:34+08:00 | 262.9052987598647 |
| 2025-11-26T15:03:48+08:00 | 262.9379932356257 |
| 2025-11-26T15:06:39+08:00 | 274.0992108229989 |
| 2025-11-26T15:14:28+08:00 | 289.31905298759864 |
| 2025-11-26T16:06:28+08:00 | 289.49943630214204 |
| 2025-11-26T16:06:38+08:00 | 294.89289740698985 |
| 2025-11-26T16:06:49+08:00 | 306.56144306651635 |
| 2025-11-26T16:07:05+08:00 | 306.6662908680947 |
| 2025-11-26T17:22:31+08:00 | 306.7412626832018 |
| 2025-11-26T17:23:13+08:00 | 365.23562570462235 |
| 2025-11-26T17:23:29+08:00 | 367.46674182638105 |
| 2025-11-26T17:23:39+08:00 | 613.8027057497181 |
| 2025-11-26T17:27:58+08:00 | 641.423900789177 |
| 2025-11-26T17:32:53+08:00 | 710.19503945885 |
| 2025-11-26T18:02:36+08:00 | 712.3511837655017 |
| 2025-11-26T18:11:26+08:00 | 717.6865839909808 |
| 2025-11-26T18:11:32+08:00 | 739.8872604284104 |
| 2025-11-26T18:11:46+08:00 | 835.0394588500563 |
| 2025-11-26T18:13:18+08:00 | 844.4853438556934 |
| 2025-11-26T19:56:21+08:00 | 844.8275084554679 |
| 2025-11-26T19:56:52+08:00 | 847.5174746335964 |
| 2025-11-26T19:56:57+08:00 | 859.7474633596393 |
| 2025-11-26T19:57:09+08:00 | 926.7147688838783 |
| 2025-11-26T20:11:17+08:00 | 926.9368658399098 |
| 2025-11-26T20:11:22+08:00 | 936.7192784667418 |
| 2025-11-26T20:11:32+08:00 | 997.6550169109357 |
| 2025-11-26T22:02:56+08:00 | 1006.8410372040586 |
| 2025-11-26T22:03:10+08:00 | 1052.6133032694477 |
| 2025-11-26T22:03:30+08:00 | 1052.6127395715896 |
| 2025-11-26T22:03:35+08:00 | 1066.9633596392334 |
| 2025-11-26T22:06:29+08:00 | 1121.2474633596391 |
| 2025-11-27T08:48:05+08:00 | 1121.2429537767757 |
| 2025-11-27T08:48:08+08:00 | 1121.248590755355 |
| 2025-11-27T08:48:50+08:00 | 1135.2480270574972 |
| 2025-11-27T08:48:55+08:00 | 1177.0045095828636 |
| 2025-11-27T08:49:13+08:00 | 1177.0045095828636 |
| 2025-11-27T08:49:25+08:00 | 1426.6662908680946 |
| 2025-11-27T09:16:57+08:00 | 1454.8511837655017 |
| 2025-11-27T09:17:07+08:00 | 1457.4250281848929 |
| 2025-11-27T09:18:05+08:00 | 1470.5490417136416 |
| 2025-11-27T09:18:25+08:00 | 1536.2762119503946 |
| 2025-11-27T09:19:29+08:00 | 1622.2542277339346 |
| 2025-11-27T10:04:01+08:00 | 1623.1578354002254 |
| 2025-11-27T10:05:21+08:00 | 1648.1820744081172 |
| 2025-11-27T10:05:39+08:00 | 1648.1465614430665 |
| 2025-11-27T10:05:55+08:00 | 1779.7136414881622 |
| 2025-11-27T11:10:14+08:00 | 1799.728861330327 |
| 2025-11-27T11:10:58+08:00 | 1824.1054114994363 |
| 2025-11-27T11:11:48+08:00 | 1945.3568207440812 |
| 2025-11-27T12:11:30+08:00 | 1946.0157835400225 |
| 2025-11-27T12:12:11+08:00 | 1951.6020293122886 |
| 2025-11-27T12:12:43+08:00 | 1974.4937993235626 |
| 2025-11-27T12:13:02+08:00 | 2078.21420518602 |
| 2025-11-27T13:52:49+08:00 | 2094.3838782412627 |
| 2025-11-27T13:53:46+08:00 | 2095.9718151071024 |
| 2025-11-27T13:54:02+08:00 | 2096.2001127395715 |
| 2025-11-27T13:54:41+08:00 | 2166.4932356257045 |
| 2025-11-27T13:55:05+08:00 | 2192.987034949267 |
| 2025-11-27T14:16:12+08:00 | 2209.7891770011274 |
| 2025-11-27T14:16:44+08:00 | 2211.6815107102593 |
| 2025-11-27T14:17:22+08:00 | 2211.9052987598648 |
| 2025-11-27T14:18:37+08:00 | 2287.3844419391207 |
| 2025-11-27T14:19:57+08:00 | 2341.902480270575 |
| 2025-11-27T15:10:25+08:00 | 2342.9177001127396 |
| 2025-11-27T15:10:59+08:00 | 2343.762119503946 |
| 2025-11-27T15:11:44+08:00 | 2363.900789177001 |
| 2025-11-27T15:12:02+08:00 | 2458.8838782412627 |
| 2025-11-27T16:18:27+08:00 | 2464.586809470124 |
| 2025-11-27T16:19:57+08:00 | 2488.2914317925593 |
| 2025-11-27T16:20:58+08:00 | 2587.107666290868 |
| 2025-11-27T16:21:59+08:00 | 2598.381623449831 |
| 2025-11-27T16:32:07+08:00 | 2637.840473506201 |
| 2025-11-27T17:00:16+08:00 | 2638.890642615558 |
| 2025-11-27T17:03:41+08:00 | 2671.010146561443 |
| 2025-11-27T17:06:22+08:00 | 2813.400225479143 |
| 2025-11-27T17:30:19+08:00 | 3229.4092446448703 |
| 2025-11-27T18:01:53+08:00 | 3229.5372040586244 |
| 2025-11-27T18:02:06+08:00 | 3283.3658399098085 |
| 2025-11-27T18:02:18+08:00 | 3311.5507328072154 |
| 2025-11-27T18:05:19+08:00 | 3329.3303269447574 |
| 2025-11-27T18:05:34+08:00 | 3425.4408117249154 |
| 2025-11-27T18:12:55+08:00 | 3471.1905298759866 |
| 2025-11-27T20:16:19+08:00 | 3471.249718151071 |
| 2025-11-27T20:17:08+08:00 | 3484.9498308906427 |
| 2025-11-27T20:17:19+08:00 | 3568.8280721533256 |
| 2025-11-27T20:18:42+08:00 | 3591.3421645997746 |
| 2025-11-27T20:18:52+08:00 | 3668.794250281849 |
| 2025-11-27T21:27:03+08:00 | 3690.991544532131 |
| 2025-11-27T21:27:13+08:00 | 3781.6341600901915 |
| 2025-11-27T22:04:10+08:00 | 3810.055242390079 |
| 2025-11-27T22:10:17+08:00 | 3931.588500563698 |
| 2025-11-28T08:35:55+08:00 | 3955.3990980834274 |
| 2025-11-28T08:35:58+08:00 | 4060.2260428410373 |
| 2025-11-28T08:37:25+08:00 | 4796.246335963923 |
| 2025-11-28T08:39:48+08:00 | 4796.246335963923 |
| 2025-11-28T09:21:54+08:00 | 4796.961668545659 |
| 2025-11-28T09:23:02+08:00 | 5123.90642615558 |
| 2025-11-28T09:23:24+08:00 | 5383.771138669673 |
| 2025-11-28T09:24:03+08:00 | 5422.530439684329 |
| 2025-11-28T09:28:34+08:00 | 5450.715332581736 |
| 2025-11-28T09:44:12+08:00 | 5558.935738444194 |
| 2025-11-28T10:07:22+08:00 | 5574.772266065389 |
| 2025-11-28T17:11:55+08:00 | 5585.93 |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|
| Time | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|
Using the actual oversubscription ratio 6876.17x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.468, Pool B α=0.568) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier
| Lots | Subscription Amount (HKD) | Actual Expected Lots | Predicted Expected Lots | Error |
|---|
Jinyan Kaolin Allotment Prediction MatrixRows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates guaranteed allotment (≥1 lot)
Mechanism B
Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).
α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].
The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").
Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier
Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.
This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Jinyan Kaolin (02693): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 10,897 allotment-tier records across 356 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation).
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.
Site Nature: This website (cibo.hk) is an independent technology product showcase platform established by Panda Securities Limited (“the Company”), dedicated to demonstrating the data analysis capabilities of AI technology products and facilitating research exchange. This website itself and all data analysis content displayed herein do not constitute, and are not involved in, any regulated activity or licensed service requiring approval by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) under the Securities and Futures Ordinance. Browsing or using the content of this website does not establish any regulated client relationship with the Company.
Not Investment Advice: Any information contained on this website (including but not limited to data analysis charts, statistical results, allotment rate comparisons, etc.) is provided solely for AI tool analysis learning exchange and technical reference purposes, and absolutely does not constitute any investment advice, offer to buy or sell, solicitation, recommendation, guarantee, or endorsement of any investment product or strategy. The output of this AI analysis tool should not be interpreted as investment opinion.
Decision Responsibility: Users should understand that all investment decisions involve risk. Users should make investment decisions based on their own independent judgment, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance, and consult independent licensed financial advisors or professional advice when needed. Neither the Company nor this AI analysis tool shall bear any responsibility for any investment decisions or actions made by users based on the information on this website.
Technical Limitations: This AI analysis tool is algorithm-driven and data-based. Its analysis results are limited by model capability, data quality, market conditions, and other factors. Past analysis results are not reliable indicators of future performance. The Company does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or suitability of the analysis results of this tool. All analysis results are automatically generated by AI algorithms, and have not been manually reviewed or verified by the publisher. Analysis charts, statistical data, and trend assessments may contain errors or biases.
Data Sources: The data on this page is sourced from publicly disclosed documents published by HKEX News and other institutions. The relevant institutions make no warranty regarding the accuracy, timeliness, or completeness of such data, nor do they endorse the analysis conclusions derived from such data.
Separation from Panda Securities Official Website: The content of this website is strictly distinct from the SFC-regulated securities and futures trading services, investment advisory, and other licensed activities provided by Panda Securities' official website (fafa.hk). No securities trading or account opening or other regulated operations can be conducted through this website.
Panda Securities Limited is a licensed corporation regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (CE Number: BNC380) and a Hong Kong Exchange Participant (Participant ID: 02229). The publisher of this website shall not be liable for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of this website or its analysis results. Use of this website constitutes acceptance of this disclaimer.
