Estun 02715
IPOExpected Lots
12.8903.66%( -0.490 )
Nov 13 · End-of-day data, not live · Hong Kong Stock Exchange
Expected Allotment via Similar IPO Matching
IPOExpected Lots| Rank | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
7.4100M |
| 2 |  老虎 |
4.2100M |
| 3 |  辉立 |
3.6100M |
| 4 |  华泰 |
1.7100M |
| 5 |  信诚 |
1.0100M |
| 6 |  盈立 |
824510K |
| 7 |  长桥 |
752810K |
| 8 |  致富 |
467010K |
| 9 |  华盛 |
355010K |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|---|
| 2026-02-27T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2026-02-27T10:22:24+08:00 | 0.0025527259466358717 |
| 2026-02-27T10:22:54+08:00 | 0.08417917704977816 |
| 2026-02-27T10:22:58+08:00 | 0.09074332948398468 |
| 2026-02-27T10:23:13+08:00 | 0.1454445997690391 |
| 2026-02-27T11:15:40+08:00 | 0.17583419437184708 |
| 2026-02-27T11:15:54+08:00 | 0.21418586276059076 |
| 2026-02-27T11:17:11+08:00 | 0.910897708624567 |
| 2026-02-27T11:17:15+08:00 | 1.0587734759618306 |
| 2026-02-27T11:17:29+08:00 | 1.4538382057983346 |
| 2026-02-27T12:06:01+08:00 | 1.5386859539293747 |
| 2026-02-27T12:06:49+08:00 | 1.5476204947426002 |
| 2026-02-27T12:07:23+08:00 | 1.6597580988269616 |
| 2026-02-27T12:07:41+08:00 | 1.7080775542454263 |
| 2026-02-27T12:07:54+08:00 | 1.9147267975445208 |
| 2026-02-27T13:43:55+08:00 | 1.9526530116088252 |
| 2026-02-27T13:44:25+08:00 | 1.9590956056646205 |
| 2026-02-27T13:45:24+08:00 | 2.0053485686500943 |
| 2026-02-27T13:45:43+08:00 | 2.0113049291922445 |
| 2026-02-27T13:46:22+08:00 | 2.430681334710995 |
| 2026-02-27T13:46:41+08:00 | 2.461070929313803 |
| 2026-02-27T14:31:09+08:00 | 2.643408496930651 |
| 2026-02-27T14:31:49+08:00 | 2.6516744666626146 |
| 2026-02-27T14:32:29+08:00 | 2.656536801799064 |
| 2026-02-27T14:32:48+08:00 | 2.706071841001641 |
| 2026-02-27T14:33:05+08:00 | 2.752932595879171 |
| 2026-02-27T14:33:24+08:00 | 2.8623351364492797 |
| 2026-02-27T15:23:15+08:00 | 2.898255637269799 |
| 2026-02-27T15:24:07+08:00 | 2.9000790129459673 |
| 2026-02-27T15:24:31+08:00 | 3.043639457849632 |
| 2026-02-27T15:24:44+08:00 | 3.0731781438035615 |
| 2026-02-27T15:24:54+08:00 | 3.2555157114204096 |
| 2026-02-27T16:08:04+08:00 | 3.266030511152981 |
| 2026-02-27T16:08:28+08:00 | 3.288701148726676 |
| 2026-02-27T16:08:58+08:00 | 3.317510484410138 |
| 2026-02-27T16:09:05+08:00 | 3.356591503069349 |
| 2026-02-27T16:09:18+08:00 | 3.490305719321704 |
| 2026-02-27T17:19:48+08:00 | 3.5170485625721755 |
| 2026-02-27T17:20:16+08:00 | 3.519297392572783 |
| 2026-02-27T17:20:41+08:00 | 3.5390506290646084 |
| 2026-02-27T17:21:01+08:00 | 3.5185680423023156 |
| 2026-02-27T17:21:22+08:00 | 3.682671853157479 |
| 2026-02-27T17:21:44+08:00 | 6.04090439433538 |
| 2026-02-27T18:01:55+08:00 | 6.066917887315383 |
| 2026-02-27T18:02:27+08:00 | 6.070807755424543 |
| 2026-02-27T18:03:26+08:00 | 6.733300917765757 |
| 2026-02-27T18:06:16+08:00 | 6.735306631009542 |
| 2026-02-27T18:06:28+08:00 | 6.762292591016836 |
| 2026-02-27T18:07:07+08:00 | 6.792682185619644 |
| 2026-02-27T21:57:34+08:00 | 6.794262444538989 |
| 2026-02-27T21:58:36+08:00 | 6.794748678052635 |
| 2026-02-27T21:58:55+08:00 | 6.795356469944691 |
| 2026-02-27T21:59:10+08:00 | 6.798638546161794 |
| 2026-02-27T22:00:58+08:00 | 6.864523187260682 |
| 2026-02-27T22:02:02+08:00 | 6.884580319698535 |
| 2026-02-27T22:03:07+08:00 | 7.097307481918191 |
| 2026-02-27T22:03:25+08:00 | 7.194554184647177 |
| 2026-02-27T22:04:10+08:00 | 7.197410806539841 |
| 2026-02-27T22:04:15+08:00 | 7.235519358171762 |
| 2026-02-27T22:06:57+08:00 | 7.241597277092324 |
| 2026-02-28T09:55:44+08:00 | 7.266152069531392 |
| 2026-02-28T09:56:09+08:00 | 7.266152069531392 |
| 2026-02-28T09:56:28+08:00 | 7.690208472618975 |
| 2026-02-28T09:56:40+08:00 | 8.00626025648818 |
| 2026-02-28T09:56:51+08:00 | 8.07293502704674 |
| 2026-02-28T09:57:07+08:00 | 8.080106971373002 |
| 2026-02-28T09:57:24+08:00 | 8.10855163192123 |
| 2026-02-28T09:57:31+08:00 | 8.109220203002492 |
| 2026-02-28T09:57:38+08:00 | 8.145687716525861 |
| 2026-02-28T09:57:53+08:00 | 8.236856500334286 |
| 2026-02-28T10:12:20+08:00 | 8.248769221418586 |
| 2026-02-28T10:12:27+08:00 | 8.306327113596305 |
| 2026-02-28T10:12:37+08:00 | 8.308272047650885 |
| 2026-02-28T10:12:46+08:00 | 8.314349966571445 |
| 2026-02-28T11:07:18+08:00 | 8.320002431167568 |
| 2026-02-28T11:07:45+08:00 | 8.321461131708503 |
| 2026-02-28T11:08:07+08:00 | 8.331307360359812 |
| 2026-02-28T11:08:19+08:00 | 8.336230474685468 |
| 2026-02-28T11:08:38+08:00 | 8.548957636905124 |
| 2026-02-28T14:21:44+08:00 | 8.573451650154986 |
| 2026-02-28T14:22:40+08:00 | 8.574728013128304 |
| 2026-02-28T14:24:52+08:00 | 8.620920196924573 |
| 2026-02-28T14:25:13+08:00 | 8.630827204765088 |
| 2026-02-28T14:25:22+08:00 | 8.632042788549201 |
| 2026-02-28T14:26:18+08:00 | 8.729289491278186 |
| 2026-02-28T14:26:36+08:00 | 8.796146599404365 |
| 2026-02-28T18:05:00+08:00 | 8.79426244453899 |
| 2026-02-28T18:06:10+08:00 | 8.80994347535404 |
| 2026-02-28T18:07:12+08:00 | 9.331003464413785 |
| 2026-02-28T18:07:47+08:00 | 9.316051783869204 |
| 2026-02-28T18:11:29+08:00 | 9.364675135233696 |
| 2026-02-28T18:11:46+08:00 | 9.370753054154257 |
| 2026-02-28T20:37:53+08:00 | 9.372333313073604 |
| 2026-02-28T20:40:19+08:00 | 9.382726554427764 |
| 2026-02-28T20:40:41+08:00 | 9.378046556858932 |
| 2026-02-28T20:40:46+08:00 | 9.383212787941408 |
| 2026-02-28T20:41:20+08:00 | 9.401446544703093 |
| 2026-02-28T20:41:44+08:00 | 9.42575822038534 |
| 2026-02-28T22:03:17+08:00 | 9.416398225247676 |
| 2026-02-28T22:03:23+08:00 | 9.417492250653376 |
| 2026-02-28T22:04:02+08:00 | 9.394943171458094 |
| 2026-02-28T22:04:16+08:00 | 9.406612775785572 |
| 2026-03-01T08:53:39+08:00 | 9.408253813894122 |
| 2026-03-01T08:53:59+08:00 | 9.410259527137908 |
| 2026-03-01T08:54:31+08:00 | 9.392025770376224 |
| 2026-03-01T09:00:08+08:00 | 9.393545250106364 |
| 2026-03-01T09:02:50+08:00 | 9.393606029295569 |
| 2026-03-01T09:04:07+08:00 | 9.353734881176685 |
| 2026-03-01T09:05:13+08:00 | 9.354585789825563 |
| 2026-03-01T09:05:43+08:00 | 9.403209141190057 |
| 2026-03-01T12:01:09+08:00 | 9.426366012277397 |
| 2026-03-01T12:01:44+08:00 | 9.443323406065764 |
| 2026-03-01T12:02:31+08:00 | 9.461557162827448 |
| 2026-03-01T12:02:36+08:00 | 9.441378472011184 |
| 2026-03-01T12:02:41+08:00 | 9.453655868230717 |
| 2026-03-01T12:17:15+08:00 | 9.453959764176746 |
| 2026-03-01T12:18:05+08:00 | 9.456087035798943 |
| 2026-03-01T12:19:04+08:00 | 9.352762414149396 |
| 2026-03-01T12:19:08+08:00 | 9.29198322494378 |
| 2026-03-01T12:19:12+08:00 | 9.377074089831641 |
| 2026-03-01T12:21:32+08:00 | 9.397799793350757 |
| 2026-03-01T12:21:41+08:00 | 9.392268887133046 |
| 2026-03-01T18:05:49+08:00 | 9.392512003889868 |
| 2026-03-01T18:05:52+08:00 | 9.393606029295569 |
| 2026-03-01T18:05:56+08:00 | 9.393484470917159 |
| 2026-03-01T18:06:00+08:00 | 9.362183188476266 |
| 2026-03-01T18:06:04+08:00 | 9.372637209019631 |
| 2026-03-01T18:06:07+08:00 | 9.372697988208838 |
| 2026-03-01T18:08:29+08:00 | 9.373123442533277 |
| 2026-03-01T18:08:33+08:00 | 9.360906825502948 |
| 2026-03-01T18:08:37+08:00 | 9.344982677931077 |
| 2026-03-01T18:10:23+08:00 | 9.347656962256124 |
| 2026-03-01T18:10:27+08:00 | 9.347960858202152 |
| 2026-03-01T18:10:31+08:00 | 9.348203974958974 |
| 2026-03-01T18:10:35+08:00 | 9.408132255515712 |
| 2026-03-01T18:10:38+08:00 | 9.409043943353796 |
| 2026-03-01T18:10:43+08:00 | 9.411049656597582 |
| 2026-03-01T18:14:11+08:00 | 9.411596669300431 |
| 2026-03-01T18:14:15+08:00 | 9.412933811462954 |
| 2026-03-01T18:14:19+08:00 | 9.4134200449766 |
| 2026-03-01T18:14:23+08:00 | 9.420713547681274 |
| 2026-03-01T18:14:26+08:00 | 9.422354585789826 |
| 2026-03-01T18:14:31+08:00 | 9.423691727952349 |
| 2026-03-01T18:17:52+08:00 | 9.435847565793472 |
| 2026-03-01T18:17:58+08:00 | 9.448003403634596 |
| 2026-03-01T18:18:02+08:00 | 9.429769646872911 |
| 2026-03-01T20:16:19+08:00 | 9.431653801738285 |
| 2026-03-01T20:17:20+08:00 | 9.442047043092446 |
| 2026-03-01T20:17:35+08:00 | 9.442472497416885 |
| 2026-03-01T20:19:04+08:00 | 9.442776393362912 |
| 2026-03-01T20:20:09+08:00 | 9.43700237038838 |
| 2026-03-01T22:37:51+08:00 | 9.412690694706132 |
| 2026-03-01T22:38:02+08:00 | 9.40053485686501 |
| 2026-03-01T22:39:05+08:00 | 9.400838752811037 |
| 2026-03-01T22:40:18+08:00 | 9.401264207135476 |
| 2026-03-01T22:40:35+08:00 | 9.408861605786178 |
| 2026-03-01T22:41:56+08:00 | 9.399683948216131 |
| 2026-03-01T22:42:04+08:00 | 9.399744727405336 |
| 2026-03-02T08:41:29+08:00 | 9.452744180392633 |
| 2026-03-02T08:43:16+08:00 | 9.47705585607488 |
| 2026-03-02T08:44:13+08:00 | 9.486111955266518 |
| 2026-03-02T08:44:16+08:00 | 9.548957636905124 |
| 2026-03-02T08:44:53+08:00 | 9.548957636905124 |
| 2026-03-02T09:04:12+08:00 | 9.585485929617699 |
| 2026-03-02T09:05:31+08:00 | 9.600498389351486 |
| 2026-03-02T09:05:56+08:00 | 9.636236552604387 |
| 2026-03-02T09:06:21+08:00 | 9.64231447152495 |
| 2026-03-02T09:06:55+08:00 | 9.644441743147146 |
| 2026-03-02T09:08:00+08:00 | 9.719139366680848 |
| 2026-03-02T09:29:44+08:00 | 9.752567920743937 |
| 2026-03-02T10:15:59+08:00 | 9.738892603172674 |
| 2026-03-02T10:16:19+08:00 | 9.92487692214186 |
| 2026-03-02T10:16:48+08:00 | 10.113292408679268 |
| 2026-03-02T10:17:58+08:00 | 10.124536558682307 |
| 2026-03-02T10:18:47+08:00 | 10.133774995441561 |
| 2026-03-02T11:08:34+08:00 | 10.147571871391236 |
| 2026-03-02T11:09:00+08:00 | 10.149638363824227 |
| 2026-03-02T11:09:18+08:00 | 10.12866954354829 |
| 2026-03-02T11:09:47+08:00 | 10.031422840819303 |
| 2026-03-02T11:10:39+08:00 | 10.035920500820518 |
| 2026-03-02T12:05:05+08:00 | 10.04047894001094 |
| 2026-03-02T12:05:36+08:00 | 10.041816082173463 |
| 2026-03-02T12:06:35+08:00 | 9.57533580502036 |
| 2026-03-02T12:06:51+08:00 | 9.540144654470309 |
| 2026-03-02T12:07:19+08:00 | 9.661703032881542 |
| 2026-03-02T13:47:50+08:00 | 9.663222512611682 |
| 2026-03-02T13:48:16+08:00 | 9.664377317206588 |
| 2026-03-02T13:48:49+08:00 | 9.666261472071962 |
| 2026-03-02T13:49:11+08:00 | 9.667902510180514 |
| 2026-03-02T13:49:42+08:00 | 9.813772564273993 |
| 2026-03-02T14:03:43+08:00 | 9.814805810490489 |
| 2026-03-02T14:04:05+08:00 | 9.81991126238376 |
| 2026-03-02T14:04:55+08:00 | 9.831216191576004 |
| 2026-03-02T14:05:24+08:00 | 9.873761624019936 |
| 2026-03-02T14:06:09+08:00 | 9.880751230778582 |
| 2026-03-02T14:10:32+08:00 | 9.931319516197654 |
| 2026-03-02T14:42:37+08:00 | 10.356773840636967 |
| 2026-03-02T15:10:43+08:00 | 10.385826293077251 |
| 2026-03-02T15:10:58+08:00 | 10.414757187139124 |
| 2026-03-02T15:11:24+08:00 | 10.487692214185863 |
| 2026-03-02T15:11:56+08:00 | 10.439433537956603 |
| 2026-03-02T15:12:45+08:00 | 10.442411718227678 |
| 2026-03-02T16:15:14+08:00 | 10.438035616604875 |
| 2026-03-02T16:16:25+08:00 | 10.438461070929314 |
| 2026-03-02T16:16:50+08:00 | 10.449279766607914 |
| 2026-03-02T16:17:37+08:00 | 10.450191454445998 |
| 2026-03-02T16:18:30+08:00 | 10.517048562572175 |
| 2026-03-02T17:03:54+08:00 | 10.498450130675257 |
| 2026-03-02T17:04:39+08:00 | 10.505682854190725 |
| 2026-03-02T17:05:08+08:00 | 10.510666747705585 |
| 2026-03-02T17:05:36+08:00 | 10.44988755849997 |
| 2026-03-02T17:55:40+08:00 | 10.82671853157479 |
| 2026-03-02T18:12:12+08:00 | 10.827873336169695 |
| 2026-03-02T18:12:49+08:00 | 10.84805202698596 |
| 2026-03-02T18:13:38+08:00 | 10.848355922931988 |
| 2026-03-02T18:13:48+08:00 | 10.810125812921656 |
| 2026-03-02T18:14:06+08:00 | 10.797969975080532 |
| 2026-03-02T18:16:21+08:00 | 10.83072995806236 |
| 2026-03-02T20:20:51+08:00 | 10.831337749954416 |
| 2026-03-02T20:21:41+08:00 | 10.832614112927734 |
| 2026-03-02T20:22:23+08:00 | 10.826232298061145 |
| 2026-03-02T20:23:02+08:00 | 10.826353856439555 |
| 2026-03-02T20:24:11+08:00 | 10.820275937518993 |
| 2026-03-02T22:04:52+08:00 | 10.82045827508661 |
| 2026-03-02T22:05:14+08:00 | 10.80909256670516 |
| 2026-03-02T22:06:10+08:00 | 10.822220871573574 |
| 2026-03-02T22:07:06+08:00 | 10.889077979699751 |
| 2026-03-02T22:07:23+08:00 | 10.883000060779189 |
| 2026-03-03T08:38:43+08:00 | 10.891083692943536 |
| 2026-03-03T08:38:49+08:00 | 10.898681091594238 |
| 2026-03-03T08:38:52+08:00 | 10.947000547012703 |
| 2026-03-03T08:40:00+08:00 | 11.335987357928646 |
| 2026-03-03T08:41:41+08:00 | 11.335987357928646 |
| 2026-03-03T09:00:37+08:00 | 11.399258493891692 |
| 2026-03-03T09:01:32+08:00 | 11.43712392876679 |
| 2026-03-03T09:03:54+08:00 | 11.53582933203671 |
| 2026-03-03T09:05:41+08:00 | 11.544399197714702 |
| 2026-03-03T09:06:09+08:00 | 11.630097854494622 |
| 2026-03-03T09:06:33+08:00 | 11.684799124779676 |
| 2026-03-03T09:28:07+08:00 | 11.715188719382484 |
| 2026-03-03T10:01:34+08:00 | 11.728438582629307 |
| 2026-03-03T10:02:34+08:00 | 11.733361696954963 |
| 2026-03-03T10:04:49+08:00 | 11.733969488847018 |
| 2026-03-03T10:05:29+08:00 | 11.73506351425272 |
| 2026-03-03T10:06:54+08:00 | 11.564881784476995 |
| 2026-03-03T11:10:15+08:00 | 11.56482100528779 |
| 2026-03-03T11:10:45+08:00 | 11.60292955691971 |
| 2026-03-03T11:11:13+08:00 | 11.63939707044308 |
| 2026-03-03T11:11:49+08:00 | 11.656536801799064 |
| 2026-03-03T11:12:21+08:00 | 11.66462043396341 |
| 2026-03-03T12:02:19+08:00 | 11.667477055856075 |
| 2026-03-03T12:02:40+08:00 | 11.667598614234485 |
| 2026-03-03T12:04:01+08:00 | 11.742478575335806 |
| 2026-03-03T12:04:32+08:00 | 11.745639093174496 |
| 2026-03-03T12:05:34+08:00 | 11.690937822889442 |
| 2026-03-03T13:47:10+08:00 | 11.688263538564396 |
| 2026-03-03T13:47:31+08:00 | 11.745031301282442 |
| 2026-03-03T13:48:02+08:00 | 11.890901355375918 |
| 2026-03-03T13:49:32+08:00 | 11.895338236187929 |
| 2026-03-03T13:49:55+08:00 | 11.897040053485686 |
| 2026-03-03T14:01:01+08:00 | 11.888895642132134 |
| 2026-03-03T14:01:46+08:00 | 11.90323953078466 |
| 2026-03-03T14:03:27+08:00 | 11.426548349845014 |
| 2026-03-03T14:05:31+08:00 | 11.427520816872303 |
| 2026-03-03T14:05:54+08:00 | 11.542393484470917 |
| 2026-03-03T14:06:24+08:00 | 11.505925970947548 |
| 2026-03-03T15:11:30+08:00 | 11.507080775542454 |
| 2026-03-03T15:12:06+08:00 | 11.511943110678903 |
| 2026-03-03T15:14:17+08:00 | 11.480581049048805 |
| 2026-03-03T15:14:42+08:00 | 11.46234729228712 |
| 2026-03-03T16:04:06+08:00 | 11.462468850665532 |
| 2026-03-03T16:04:42+08:00 | 11.483620008509087 |
| 2026-03-03T16:07:18+08:00 | 11.49577584635021 |
| 2026-03-03T17:13:50+08:00 | 11.497477663647967 |
| 2026-03-03T17:15:14+08:00 | 11.488786239591564 |
| 2026-03-03T17:15:31+08:00 | 11.640734212605604 |
| 2026-03-03T17:47:51+08:00 | 13.160213942746005 |
| 2026-03-03T18:04:23+08:00 | 13.361940071719443 |
| 2026-03-03T18:06:59+08:00 | 13.362487084422293 |
| 2026-03-03T18:07:36+08:00 | 13.238375980064426 |
| 2026-03-03T18:08:02+08:00 | 13.29307725034948 |
| 2026-03-03T20:16:26+08:00 | 13.293745821430742 |
| 2026-03-03T20:19:57+08:00 | 13.34188293928159 |
| 2026-03-03T20:20:25+08:00 | 13.335805020361029 |
| 2026-03-03T22:07:42+08:00 | 13.336108916307056 |
| 2026-03-03T22:08:32+08:00 | 13.308636722786119 |
| 2026-03-03T22:10:22+08:00 | 13.27824712818331 |
| 2026-03-04T08:46:20+08:00 | 13.262019084665411 |
| 2026-03-04T08:46:23+08:00 | 13.274904272777 |
| 2026-03-04T08:48:04+08:00 | 13.274904272777 |
| 2026-03-04T08:48:47+08:00 | 13.785449462104175 |
| 2026-03-04T09:10:26+08:00 | 13.88840940861849 |
| 2026-03-04T09:11:16+08:00 | 14.016045705950283 |
| 2026-03-04T09:13:20+08:00 | 14.38983771956482 |
| 2026-03-04T10:14:32+08:00 | 14.396948884701878 |
| 2026-03-04T10:15:07+08:00 | 14.433416398225248 |
| 2026-03-04T11:04:09+08:00 | 12.366923965234303 |
| 2026-03-04T16:55:43+08:00 | 12.65 |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|
| Time | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|
Using the actual oversubscription ratio 19.67x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.609, Pool B α=0.709) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier
| Lots | Subscription Amount (HKD) | Actual Expected Lots | Predicted Expected Lots | Error |
|---|
Estun Allotment Prediction MatrixRows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates expected ≥1 lot. Non-preset multiples are interpolated from the nearest grid points.
Mechanism B
Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).
α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].
The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").
Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier
Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.
This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Estun (02715): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 22087 allotment-tier records across 592 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation). You can override the oversubscription multiple and the allocation-method α right on the page, replacing cibo's defaults to see expected lots under your own scenario. How allotment rates and clawback work is explained in How Hong Kong IPO Allotment Rates Work.
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.
