Gon Technology 02768Expected Lots
Gon Technology (02768) Expected Lots
| Rank | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
1429.6100M |
| 2 |  辉立 |
460.0100M |
| 3 |  老虎 |
263.9100M |
| 4 |  华泰 |
65.4100M |
| 5 |  华盛 |
36.5100M |
| 6 |  招银 |
22.8100M |
| 7 |  盈立 |
17.6100M |
| 8 |  信诚 |
15.0100M |
| 9 |  致富 |
9.3100M |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-27T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2026-01-27T10:00:45+08:00 | 0.05103174603174603 |
| 2026-01-27T10:09:07+08:00 | 0.3620634920634921 |
| 2026-01-27T10:09:20+08:00 | 0.6557142857142857 |
| 2026-01-27T11:09:28+08:00 | 0.7015079365079365 |
| 2026-01-27T11:10:22+08:00 | 0.9082539682539682 |
| 2026-01-27T11:11:03+08:00 | 1.9479365079365079 |
| 2026-01-27T11:32:27+08:00 | 2.0273015873015874 |
| 2026-01-27T11:32:33+08:00 | 2.0415873015873016 |
| 2026-01-27T12:11:04+08:00 | 2.0554761904761905 |
| 2026-01-27T12:11:27+08:00 | 2.1533333333333333 |
| 2026-01-27T12:11:43+08:00 | 2.1703968253968253 |
| 2026-01-27T12:12:16+08:00 | 3.376746031746032 |
| 2026-01-27T13:48:51+08:00 | 3.384920634920635 |
| 2026-01-27T13:48:57+08:00 | 3.387777777777778 |
| 2026-01-27T13:49:03+08:00 | 3.393968253968254 |
| 2026-01-27T13:49:36+08:00 | 3.3993650793650794 |
| 2026-01-27T13:49:51+08:00 | 4.26436507936508 |
| 2026-01-27T13:50:23+08:00 | 5.1056349206349205 |
| 2026-01-27T14:07:19+08:00 | 5.125873015873016 |
| 2026-01-27T14:07:45+08:00 | 5.612063492063492 |
| 2026-01-27T14:07:56+08:00 | 6.6971428571428575 |
| 2026-01-27T14:08:21+08:00 | 7.101904761904762 |
| 2026-01-27T14:09:04+08:00 | 7.233730158730158 |
| 2026-01-27T15:01:10+08:00 | 7.244603174603174 |
| 2026-01-27T15:01:12+08:00 | 7.256666666666667 |
| 2026-01-27T15:01:27+08:00 | 7.438650793650794 |
| 2026-01-27T15:03:09+08:00 | 7.83547619047619 |
| 2026-01-27T15:03:52+08:00 | 8.007936507936508 |
| 2026-01-27T15:06:03+08:00 | 8.968253968253968 |
| 2026-01-27T15:32:29+08:00 | 9.096190476190475 |
| 2026-01-27T16:02:47+08:00 | 9.157301587301587 |
| 2026-01-27T16:02:50+08:00 | 9.164761904761905 |
| 2026-01-27T16:03:23+08:00 | 10.32968253968254 |
| 2026-01-27T16:05:26+08:00 | 12.05984126984127 |
| 2026-01-27T17:20:56+08:00 | 12.104603174603175 |
| 2026-01-27T17:21:18+08:00 | 12.134761904761906 |
| 2026-01-27T17:21:45+08:00 | 12.17484126984127 |
| 2026-01-27T17:21:57+08:00 | 15.666904761904762 |
| 2026-01-27T17:22:07+08:00 | 17.164920634920634 |
| 2026-01-27T17:22:28+08:00 | 20.56968253968254 |
| 2026-01-27T17:33:17+08:00 | 20.571825396825396 |
| 2026-01-27T17:57:45+08:00 | 20.730555555555554 |
| 2026-01-27T18:04:35+08:00 | 20.746269841269843 |
| 2026-01-27T18:04:53+08:00 | 20.750396825396827 |
| 2026-01-27T18:05:21+08:00 | 23.480555555555554 |
| 2026-01-27T18:05:32+08:00 | 23.931825396825396 |
| 2026-01-27T18:13:26+08:00 | 24.64920634920635 |
| 2026-01-27T20:20:46+08:00 | 24.634761904761906 |
| 2026-01-27T20:20:51+08:00 | 25.08293650793651 |
| 2026-01-27T20:21:17+08:00 | 26.559126984126983 |
| 2026-01-27T20:21:22+08:00 | 26.661507936507938 |
| 2026-01-27T20:21:31+08:00 | 27.2334126984127 |
| 2026-01-27T20:21:56+08:00 | 27.852460317460316 |
| 2026-01-27T21:26:05+08:00 | 27.854126984126985 |
| 2026-01-27T21:26:18+08:00 | 27.883809523809525 |
| 2026-01-27T21:26:27+08:00 | 28.08238095238095 |
| 2026-01-27T21:26:57+08:00 | 29.534761904761904 |
| 2026-01-27T22:07:11+08:00 | 29.539444444444445 |
| 2026-01-27T22:07:16+08:00 | 29.566190476190478 |
| 2026-01-27T22:07:25+08:00 | 29.772142857142857 |
| 2026-01-27T22:07:46+08:00 | 31.03404761904762 |
| 2026-01-28T08:33:39+08:00 | 31.098650793650794 |
| 2026-01-28T08:34:24+08:00 | 44.86849206349206 |
| 2026-01-28T08:36:12+08:00 | 45.8886507936508 |
| 2026-01-28T08:36:15+08:00 | 47.73404761904762 |
| 2026-01-28T08:36:22+08:00 | 47.73404761904762 |
| 2026-01-28T09:20:37+08:00 | 47.88015873015873 |
| 2026-01-28T09:20:46+08:00 | 48.318333333333335 |
| 2026-01-28T09:21:05+08:00 | 48.479285714285716 |
| 2026-01-28T09:21:38+08:00 | 54.08246031746032 |
| 2026-01-28T09:22:45+08:00 | 55.49420634920635 |
| 2026-01-28T10:19:50+08:00 | 55.50888888888889 |
| 2026-01-28T10:20:13+08:00 | 55.54238095238095 |
| 2026-01-28T10:20:25+08:00 | 56.35968253968254 |
| 2026-01-28T10:20:50+08:00 | 59.11642857142857 |
| 2026-01-28T10:21:32+08:00 | 68.32277777777777 |
| 2026-01-28T10:38:27+08:00 | 68.59698412698413 |
| 2026-01-28T11:04:14+08:00 | 68.99404761904762 |
| 2026-01-28T11:04:34+08:00 | 70.07 |
| 2026-01-28T11:04:53+08:00 | 70.1818253968254 |
| 2026-01-28T11:05:20+08:00 | 78.1818253968254 |
| 2026-01-28T11:05:30+08:00 | 79.21357142857143 |
| 2026-01-28T11:33:00+08:00 | 79.30325396825397 |
| 2026-01-28T12:02:13+08:00 | 79.43976190476191 |
| 2026-01-28T12:02:25+08:00 | 79.63976190476191 |
| 2026-01-28T12:09:03+08:00 | 81.06230158730159 |
| 2026-01-28T12:09:41+08:00 | 86.73690476190477 |
| 2026-01-28T13:41:05+08:00 | 86.81912698412698 |
| 2026-01-28T13:41:20+08:00 | 86.95484126984127 |
| 2026-01-28T13:41:26+08:00 | 86.99325396825397 |
| 2026-01-28T13:42:10+08:00 | 87.02452380952381 |
| 2026-01-28T13:42:20+08:00 | 88.52007936507937 |
| 2026-01-28T13:43:04+08:00 | 93.8613492063492 |
| 2026-01-28T14:16:46+08:00 | 93.92769841269842 |
| 2026-01-28T14:17:06+08:00 | 95.8 |
| 2026-01-28T14:17:25+08:00 | 96.505 |
| 2026-01-28T14:17:31+08:00 | 98.0129365079365 |
| 2026-01-28T14:18:07+08:00 | 105.06849206349206 |
| 2026-01-28T14:18:51+08:00 | 107.04277777777777 |
| 2026-01-28T14:31:14+08:00 | 107.28119047619047 |
| 2026-01-28T15:24:44+08:00 | 109.15357142857142 |
| 2026-01-28T15:25:16+08:00 | 109.19579365079365 |
| 2026-01-28T15:25:33+08:00 | 118.52912698412699 |
| 2026-01-28T15:25:57+08:00 | 118.69698412698413 |
| 2026-01-28T15:45:45+08:00 | 118.77063492063492 |
| 2026-01-28T16:12:30+08:00 | 118.87436507936508 |
| 2026-01-28T16:12:36+08:00 | 118.89753968253969 |
| 2026-01-28T16:13:04+08:00 | 121.3386507936508 |
| 2026-01-28T16:13:25+08:00 | 131.4338888888889 |
| 2026-01-28T16:16:04+08:00 | 131.8307142857143 |
| 2026-01-28T16:36:19+08:00 | 131.91698412698412 |
| 2026-01-28T17:09:40+08:00 | 131.95873015873016 |
| 2026-01-28T17:09:49+08:00 | 132.0286507936508 |
| 2026-01-28T17:10:03+08:00 | 134.07031746031745 |
| 2026-01-28T17:10:19+08:00 | 141.76873015873016 |
| 2026-01-28T17:25:05+08:00 | 143.35603174603173 |
| 2026-01-28T17:32:00+08:00 | 143.36246031746032 |
| 2026-01-28T17:32:31+08:00 | 161.29896825396824 |
| 2026-01-28T18:00:19+08:00 | 161.31071428571428 |
| 2026-01-28T18:00:28+08:00 | 161.385 |
| 2026-01-28T18:05:45+08:00 | 163.25722222222223 |
| 2026-01-28T18:06:00+08:00 | 171.4556349206349 |
| 2026-01-28T18:12:02+08:00 | 175.15642857142856 |
| 2026-01-28T19:59:40+08:00 | 175.95007936507938 |
| 2026-01-28T19:59:54+08:00 | 177.4272222222222 |
| 2026-01-28T19:59:59+08:00 | 179.36793650793652 |
| 2026-01-28T20:00:14+08:00 | 187.5663492063492 |
| 2026-01-28T20:00:28+08:00 | 188.06214285714285 |
| 2026-01-28T20:00:47+08:00 | 188.14444444444445 |
| 2026-01-28T20:20:06+08:00 | 189.68253968253967 |
| 2026-01-28T20:20:20+08:00 | 197.515873015873 |
| 2026-01-28T21:34:33+08:00 | 197.56484126984128 |
| 2026-01-28T21:35:34+08:00 | 197.59722222222223 |
| 2026-01-28T21:35:52+08:00 | 200.555873015873 |
| 2026-01-28T21:36:06+08:00 | 207.69873015873017 |
| 2026-01-28T21:36:15+08:00 | 207.70357142857142 |
| 2026-01-28T22:14:48+08:00 | 207.7686507936508 |
| 2026-01-28T22:14:57+08:00 | 209.64119047619047 |
| 2026-01-28T22:15:10+08:00 | 217.47452380952382 |
| 2026-01-29T08:55:33+08:00 | 223.9425396825397 |
| 2026-01-29T08:56:19+08:00 | 223.9425396825397 |
| 2026-01-29T08:56:39+08:00 | 224.74285714285713 |
| 2026-01-29T08:56:49+08:00 | 280.0444444444444 |
| 2026-01-29T08:57:03+08:00 | 293.41238095238094 |
| 2026-01-29T09:29:58+08:00 | 293.7211111111111 |
| 2026-01-29T09:30:16+08:00 | 293.72849206349207 |
| 2026-01-29T09:30:34+08:00 | 296.19666666666666 |
| 2026-01-29T09:30:43+08:00 | 314.89507936507937 |
| 2026-01-29T09:31:09+08:00 | 319.6569841269841 |
| 2026-01-29T09:31:19+08:00 | 320.03515873015874 |
| 2026-01-29T10:29:36+08:00 | 322.7726984126984 |
| 2026-01-29T10:29:42+08:00 | 323.0650793650794 |
| 2026-01-29T10:30:04+08:00 | 330.8257936507936 |
| 2026-01-29T10:30:20+08:00 | 360.74642857142857 |
| 2026-01-29T10:30:28+08:00 | 360.7942857142857 |
| 2026-01-29T11:07:56+08:00 | 361.0372222222222 |
| 2026-01-29T11:08:35+08:00 | 361.21507936507936 |
| 2026-01-29T11:09:10+08:00 | 369.258253968254 |
| 2026-01-29T11:11:22+08:00 | 393.2026984126984 |
| 2026-01-29T11:13:43+08:00 | 394.13174603174605 |
| 2026-01-29T11:14:51+08:00 | 401.27460317460316 |
| 2026-01-29T12:09:27+08:00 | 401.4921428571429 |
| 2026-01-29T12:09:45+08:00 | 401.5203968253968 |
| 2026-01-29T12:09:57+08:00 | 404.695 |
| 2026-01-29T12:10:17+08:00 | 404.7865079365079 |
| 2026-01-29T12:10:54+08:00 | 411.2527777777778 |
| 2026-01-29T12:11:11+08:00 | 434.5623015873016 |
| 2026-01-29T12:36:09+08:00 | 434.8829365079365 |
| 2026-01-29T13:41:22+08:00 | 434.98063492063494 |
| 2026-01-29T13:42:10+08:00 | 435.23507936507934 |
| 2026-01-29T13:42:44+08:00 | 439.481746031746 |
| 2026-01-29T13:43:10+08:00 | 457.1563492063492 |
| 2026-01-29T14:17:23+08:00 | 458.0329365079365 |
| 2026-01-29T14:18:06+08:00 | 458.27238095238096 |
| 2026-01-29T14:18:26+08:00 | 465.7165873015873 |
| 2026-01-29T14:18:47+08:00 | 483.75626984126984 |
| 2026-01-29T15:10:43+08:00 | 483.91714285714284 |
| 2026-01-29T15:11:13+08:00 | 484.09960317460315 |
| 2026-01-29T15:12:05+08:00 | 489.27698412698413 |
| 2026-01-29T15:12:24+08:00 | 506.5785714285714 |
| 2026-01-29T15:13:36+08:00 | 517.6896825396825 |
| 2026-01-29T16:26:35+08:00 | 517.7423015873015 |
| 2026-01-29T16:26:38+08:00 | 517.8761111111111 |
| 2026-01-29T16:26:57+08:00 | 518.2103968253969 |
| 2026-01-29T16:27:53+08:00 | 523.5867460317461 |
| 2026-01-29T16:28:21+08:00 | 550.055 |
| 2026-01-29T16:31:51+08:00 | 562.3248412698413 |
| 2026-01-29T17:17:12+08:00 | 567.8803968253968 |
| 2026-01-29T17:17:25+08:00 | 568.0661904761905 |
| 2026-01-29T17:18:02+08:00 | 568.3483333333334 |
| 2026-01-29T17:18:51+08:00 | 574.4020634920635 |
| 2026-01-29T17:19:04+08:00 | 604.8703174603174 |
| 2026-01-29T17:45:53+08:00 | 740.5846031746032 |
| 2026-01-29T18:00:04+08:00 | 740.7819047619048 |
| 2026-01-29T18:01:21+08:00 | 740.9272222222222 |
| 2026-01-29T18:04:14+08:00 | 747.5938888888888 |
| 2026-01-29T18:05:50+08:00 | 753.8883333333333 |
| 2026-01-29T18:06:16+08:00 | 783.1899206349207 |
| 2026-01-29T19:46:53+08:00 | 783.6619841269842 |
| 2026-01-29T19:47:11+08:00 | 783.8172222222222 |
| 2026-01-29T19:47:34+08:00 | 790.7553174603174 |
| 2026-01-29T19:47:52+08:00 | 824.1997619047619 |
| 2026-01-29T20:02:46+08:00 | 824.3931746031747 |
| 2026-01-29T20:03:32+08:00 | 832.7628571428571 |
| 2026-01-29T20:13:35+08:00 | 867.3819047619047 |
| 2026-01-29T21:35:16+08:00 | 867.6638095238095 |
| 2026-01-29T21:35:44+08:00 | 875.404126984127 |
| 2026-01-29T21:36:03+08:00 | 915.0469841269842 |
| 2026-01-29T22:06:11+08:00 | 923.2827777777778 |
| 2026-01-29T22:06:34+08:00 | 965.7748412698413 |
| 2026-01-30T08:52:55+08:00 | 976.0444444444445 |
| 2026-01-30T08:53:02+08:00 | 976.0444444444445 |
| 2026-01-30T08:53:19+08:00 | 1010.1889682539683 |
| 2026-01-30T08:53:28+08:00 | 1264.0381746031746 |
| 2026-01-30T09:00:38+08:00 | 1265.561507936508 |
| 2026-01-30T09:04:48+08:00 | 1276.5218253968253 |
| 2026-01-30T09:07:18+08:00 | 1373.2599206349207 |
| 2026-01-30T10:11:53+08:00 | 1383.577380952381 |
| 2026-01-30T10:12:16+08:00 | 1393.4039682539683 |
| 2026-01-30T10:12:22+08:00 | 1598.4198412698413 |
| 2026-01-30T11:11:14+08:00 | 1622.5388888888888 |
| 2026-01-30T11:12:54+08:00 | 1631.2690476190476 |
| 2026-01-30T12:41:00+08:00 | 1839.2055555555555 |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|
| Time | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|
Using the actual oversubscription ratio 2251.85x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.650, Pool B α=0.614) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier
| Lots | Subscription Amount (HKD) | Actual Expected Lots | Predicted Expected Lots | Error |
|---|
Gon Technology Allotment Prediction MatrixRows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates guaranteed allotment (≥1 lot)
Mechanism B
Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).
α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].
The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").
Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier
Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.
This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Gon Technology (02768): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 10,897 allotment-tier records across 356 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation).
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.
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