Margin dynamics Margin multiple820.98x Margin funds2137.8100M TradeGo forecast multiple1067.28x
Rank Broker Margin funds
1 富途证券富途 1201.8100M
2 辉立证券辉立 510.0100M
3 老虎国际老虎 195.6100M
4 华泰国际华泰 84.8100M
5 招银国际招银 38.0100M
6 华盛证券华盛 34.0100M
7 盈立证券盈立 17.8100M
8 熊猫证券熊猫 14.2100M
9 TradeGo MarketsTradeGo 10.6100M
Margin multiple
TimeMultiple
2026-04-09T06:00:00+08:000
2026-04-09T10:12:13+08:000.1152073732718894
2026-04-09T10:12:28+08:000.15241935483870966
2026-04-09T10:12:44+08:000.3273809523809524
2026-04-09T10:13:04+08:000.8458141321044547
2026-04-09T10:27:43+08:000.8460829493087557
2026-04-09T10:51:27+08:000.8462365591397849
2026-04-09T10:51:34+08:001.3007680491551459
2026-04-09T11:01:23+08:001.3310675883256529
2026-04-09T11:07:17+08:001.331336405529954
2026-04-09T11:07:38+08:001.588748079877112
2026-04-09T11:08:00+08:001.672926267281106
2026-04-09T11:08:24+08:004.372619047619048
2026-04-09T11:50:00+08:004.3728878648233485
2026-04-09T12:14:03+08:004.386482334869432
2026-04-09T12:14:43+08:004.450499231950845
2026-04-09T12:15:00+08:004.640898617511521
2026-04-09T12:15:18+08:007.014170506912443
2026-04-09T13:43:31+08:007.014746543778802
2026-04-09T13:43:41+08:007.029493087557603
2026-04-09T13:43:44+08:007.031182795698925
2026-04-09T13:43:48+08:007.033410138248848
2026-04-09T13:44:40+08:007.03963133640553
2026-04-09T13:45:00+08:007.304915514592934
2026-04-09T13:45:23+08:007.326536098310292
2026-04-09T13:45:54+08:009.108410138248848
2026-04-09T13:50:32+08:009.119546850998464
2026-04-09T14:06:30+08:009.127380952380953
2026-04-09T14:07:11+08:009.26578341013825
2026-04-09T14:08:12+08:0010.23736559139785
2026-04-09T14:08:30+08:0010.264861751152074
2026-04-09T14:09:10+08:0010.265168970814132
2026-04-09T14:09:34+08:0010.39957757296467
2026-04-09T14:11:43+08:0010.774078341013825
2026-04-09T15:16:36+08:0010.774347158218125
2026-04-09T15:16:39+08:0010.763479262672812
2026-04-09T15:17:06+08:0010.772503840245776
2026-04-09T15:17:25+08:0012.331643625192012
2026-04-09T15:17:45+08:0012.385675883256528
2026-04-09T15:18:05+08:0012.646466973886328
2026-04-09T15:18:13+08:0012.646774193548387
2026-04-09T16:09:49+08:0012.667511520737326
2026-04-09T16:09:51+08:0012.695353302611368
2026-04-09T16:09:54+08:0012.723195084485408
2026-04-09T16:10:37+08:0013.012365591397849
2026-04-09T16:10:54+08:0013.156374807987712
2026-04-09T16:11:11+08:0013.60568356374808
2026-04-09T16:11:31+08:0013.652726574500768
2026-04-09T16:36:31+08:0013.806336405529954
2026-04-09T16:48:37+08:0013.807450076804916
2026-04-09T17:07:56+08:0013.883602150537634
2026-04-09T17:08:28+08:0014.058256528417818
2026-04-09T17:08:53+08:0014.079147465437789
2026-04-09T17:09:41+08:0014.093279569892474
2026-04-09T17:10:05+08:0016.40126728110599
2026-04-09T17:51:52+08:0016.411021505376343
2026-04-09T17:51:55+08:0016.4110599078341
2026-04-09T17:52:13+08:0027.355760368663596
2026-04-09T18:05:00+08:0027.384639016897083
2026-04-09T18:06:21+08:0027.861482334869432
2026-04-09T18:06:38+08:0029.985138248847925
2026-04-09T18:07:36+08:0030.03325652841782
2026-04-09T18:08:12+08:0031.397273425499233
2026-04-09T18:17:18+08:0031.397503840245776
2026-04-09T22:31:17+08:0032.177073732718895
2026-04-09T22:31:22+08:0032.99120583717358
2026-04-09T22:31:26+08:0033.88598310291859
2026-04-09T22:31:31+08:0034.93052995391705
2026-04-09T22:31:57+08:0035.186290322580646
2026-04-09T22:32:02+08:0035.60814132104455
2026-04-09T22:32:06+08:0035.66171274961597
2026-04-09T22:32:10+08:0036.15641321044547
2026-04-09T22:35:00+08:0036.21317204301075
2026-04-09T22:35:04+08:0036.29807987711214
2026-04-09T22:35:08+08:0036.46048387096774
2026-04-09T22:35:12+08:0036.59742703533026
2026-04-09T22:40:12+08:0036.59761904761905
2026-04-09T22:40:17+08:0036.59788786482335
2026-04-09T22:40:20+08:0036.598195084485404
2026-04-09T22:41:08+08:0036.64120583717358
2026-04-10T08:42:23+08:0036.87242703533026
2026-04-10T08:42:41+08:0036.99143625192012
2026-04-10T08:42:49+08:0036.99143625192012
2026-04-10T08:43:11+08:0036.99143625192012
2026-04-10T08:43:20+08:0037.01931643625192
2026-04-10T08:43:30+08:0038.50072964669739
2026-04-10T08:44:08+08:0038.751881720430106
2026-04-10T08:44:19+08:0045.391666666666666
2026-04-10T08:44:27+08:0045.40556835637481
2026-04-10T09:07:07+08:0045.455184331797234
2026-04-10T09:07:49+08:0045.48932411674347
2026-04-10T09:08:55+08:0046.55307219662058
2026-04-10T09:09:23+08:0046.65867895545315
2026-04-10T09:09:59+08:0048.03840245775729
2026-04-10T10:05:28+08:0048.04082181259601
2026-04-10T10:06:04+08:0050.295046082949305
2026-04-10T10:06:23+08:0050.35203533026114
2026-04-10T10:07:01+08:0050.352611367127494
2026-04-10T10:07:44+08:0050.54377880184332
2026-04-10T10:08:23+08:0051.50384024577573
2026-04-10T11:11:27+08:0051.50802611367128
2026-04-10T11:12:26+08:0051.98175883256528
2026-04-10T11:12:47+08:0055.10387864823349
2026-04-10T11:13:10+08:0055.21689708141321
2026-04-10T11:13:39+08:0055.22384792626728
2026-04-10T11:36:48+08:0055.79988479262673
2026-04-10T11:52:36+08:0055.81382488479262
2026-04-10T12:09:47+08:0057.01232718894009
2026-04-10T12:10:30+08:0057.30856374807988
2026-04-10T12:10:59+08:0060.630376344086024
2026-04-10T12:11:16+08:0060.69573732718894
2026-04-10T13:40:35+08:0060.793356374807985
2026-04-10T13:41:17+08:0061.10779569892473
2026-04-10T13:41:35+08:0062.82822580645161
2026-04-10T13:41:51+08:0062.901382488479264
2026-04-10T13:42:39+08:0062.9026113671275
2026-04-10T13:42:41+08:0062.889708141321044
2026-04-10T13:42:44+08:0062.889592933947775
2026-04-10T14:13:22+08:0063.04823348694316
2026-04-10T14:14:19+08:0063.315706605222736
2026-04-10T14:14:40+08:0063.3502688172043
2026-04-10T14:15:32+08:0066.4992703533026
2026-04-10T14:17:55+08:0068.19761904761904
2026-04-10T14:19:31+08:0068.18310291858678
2026-04-10T14:46:39+08:0068.18337173579108
2026-04-10T15:15:53+08:0068.23982334869432
2026-04-10T15:16:09+08:0068.2968509984639
2026-04-10T15:16:30+08:0070.9274193548387
2026-04-10T15:16:45+08:0071.32853302611367
2026-04-10T15:17:29+08:0071.37031490015362
2026-04-10T16:24:46+08:0071.38006912442397
2026-04-10T16:24:54+08:0071.38160522273425
2026-04-10T16:25:28+08:0071.9576420890937
2026-04-10T16:26:17+08:0072.68221966205837
2026-04-10T16:26:33+08:0075.63536866359448
2026-04-10T16:26:55+08:0075.72165898617511
2026-04-10T16:27:30+08:0075.7671658986175
2026-04-10T16:41:24+08:0075.90637480798772
2026-04-10T16:58:49+08:0075.91056067588326
2026-04-10T17:19:04+08:0076.02288786482335
2026-04-10T17:19:21+08:0078.30399385560676
2026-04-10T17:20:48+08:0079.47503840245776
2026-04-10T17:21:10+08:0079.54308755760368
2026-04-10T17:21:43+08:0079.54335637480798
2026-04-10T17:46:40+08:0099.32062211981567
2026-04-10T18:02:13+08:0099.32968509984639
2026-04-10T18:03:10+08:00100.11950844854071
2026-04-10T18:06:24+08:00100.17822580645161
2026-04-10T18:06:50+08:00100.45384024577572
2026-04-10T18:07:28+08:00101.72112135176651
2026-04-10T18:41:09+08:00101.72223502304148
2026-04-10T22:38:27+08:00101.78279569892473
2026-04-10T22:38:32+08:00101.86574500768049
2026-04-10T22:38:36+08:00101.91582181259601
2026-04-10T22:38:40+08:00101.97619047619048
2026-04-10T22:40:24+08:00102.16866359447005
2026-04-10T22:40:31+08:00102.43897849462365
2026-04-10T22:40:35+08:00102.82450076804915
2026-04-10T22:40:39+08:00103.83563748079877
2026-04-10T22:44:32+08:00105.38325652841782
2026-04-10T22:44:36+08:00107.49923195084486
2026-04-10T22:44:47+08:00110.18356374807988
2026-04-10T22:44:51+08:00111.95775729646698
2026-04-10T22:48:40+08:00111.9623271889401
2026-04-10T22:50:54+08:00111.96359447004609
2026-04-10T22:50:58+08:00111.96428571428571
2026-04-10T22:51:02+08:00111.96551459293394
2026-04-10T22:51:07+08:00111.96413210445469
2026-04-11T10:20:45+08:00112.03018433179723
2026-04-11T10:21:12+08:00112.08824884792627
2026-04-11T10:21:16+08:00112.12154377880184
2026-04-11T10:21:19+08:00112.13533026113672
2026-04-11T10:23:11+08:00120.96405529953917
2026-04-11T10:23:15+08:00122.64224270353303
2026-04-11T10:23:19+08:00124.15145929339478
2026-04-11T10:26:04+08:00125.50994623655914
2026-04-11T10:26:07+08:00126.6978494623656
2026-04-11T10:26:11+08:00126.8773425499232
2026-04-11T10:26:14+08:00127.08878648233487
2026-04-11T10:27:37+08:00127.13517665130568
2026-04-11T10:27:41+08:00127.15176651305684
2026-04-11T10:29:08+08:00127.14788786482335
2026-04-11T10:29:29+08:00127.14788786482335
2026-04-11T11:27:41+08:00128.772311827957
2026-04-11T11:28:22+08:00128.83141321044548
2026-04-11T11:29:04+08:00129.2284178187404
2026-04-11T11:29:12+08:00129.23241167434716
2026-04-11T12:34:07+08:00129.23878648233486
2026-04-11T12:35:01+08:00130.59439324116744
2026-04-11T12:35:22+08:00130.6481182795699
2026-04-11T12:36:06+08:00131.102688172043
2026-04-11T13:05:28+08:00131.20245775729646
2026-04-11T13:05:49+08:00132.51582181259602
2026-04-11T13:06:29+08:00132.83671274961597
2026-04-11T13:07:08+08:00132.84086021505377
2026-04-11T15:08:27+08:00134.0121351766513
2026-04-11T15:08:52+08:00134.94147465437788
2026-04-11T15:10:22+08:00135.28079877112134
2026-04-11T15:10:36+08:00135.64205069124424
2026-04-11T15:12:50+08:00135.65168970814133
2026-04-11T15:12:59+08:00135.65779569892473
2026-04-11T15:13:31+08:00135.65806451612903
2026-04-11T15:14:18+08:00135.69312596006145
2026-04-11T15:14:32+08:00135.7311827956989
2026-04-11T18:06:24+08:00137.40552995391704
2026-04-11T18:06:37+08:00138.74193548387098
2026-04-11T18:06:50+08:00139.35253456221199
2026-04-11T18:09:29+08:00139.44166666666666
2026-04-11T18:09:41+08:00139.49884792626727
2026-04-11T18:09:53+08:00139.50833333333333
2026-04-11T18:11:18+08:00139.51198156682028
2026-04-11T18:11:27+08:00139.51532258064515
2026-04-11T18:11:35+08:00139.51693548387098
2026-04-11T18:13:03+08:00139.88352534562213
2026-04-11T18:13:15+08:00140.00660522273427
2026-04-11T18:13:29+08:00140.07872503840247
2026-04-11T22:24:07+08:00141.09639016897083
2026-04-11T22:24:19+08:00141.94124423963135
2026-04-11T22:24:23+08:00143.5579877112135
2026-04-11T22:24:28+08:00144.9135944700461
2026-04-11T22:57:10+08:00144.91624423963134
2026-04-11T22:57:14+08:00144.9630184331797
2026-04-11T22:57:17+08:00145.00464669738864
2026-04-11T22:57:21+08:00145.03594470046082
2026-04-11T22:58:26+08:00145.19393241167435
2026-04-11T22:58:30+08:00145.38160522273427
2026-04-11T22:58:33+08:00145.74608294930874
2026-04-11T22:58:38+08:00145.98582949308755
2026-04-11T23:01:40+08:00145.98609831029185
2026-04-11T23:01:44+08:00145.98636712749615
2026-04-11T23:01:49+08:00145.98790322580646
2026-04-11T23:02:51+08:00145.99059139784947
2026-04-12T10:18:27+08:00145.99059139784947
2026-04-12T10:20:03+08:00148.3149385560676
2026-04-12T10:21:06+08:00148.34116743471583
2026-04-12T10:21:46+08:00148.4871351766513
2026-04-12T10:22:42+08:00156.27515360983102
2026-04-12T10:22:57+08:00158.12999231950846
2026-04-12T13:09:15+08:00158.1300307219662
2026-04-12T13:11:18+08:00158.2351766513057
2026-04-12T13:12:50+08:00160.01513056835637
2026-04-12T13:13:52+08:00160.0223886328725
2026-04-12T13:14:27+08:00164.31578341013824
2026-04-12T13:14:42+08:00166.5892089093702
2026-04-12T16:22:53+08:00166.66778033794162
2026-04-12T16:23:36+08:00166.67165898617512
2026-04-12T16:24:16+08:00167.60733486943164
2026-04-12T16:25:06+08:00171.99673579109063
2026-04-12T16:25:24+08:00174.08966973886328
2026-04-12T18:18:24+08:00174.09354838709677
2026-04-12T18:19:05+08:00174.22046850998464
2026-04-12T18:19:55+08:00175.65967741935484
2026-04-12T18:20:40+08:00178.25568356374808
2026-04-12T18:20:54+08:00180.87089093701996
2026-04-12T20:07:38+08:00181.03817204301075
2026-04-12T20:07:53+08:00181.03932411674347
2026-04-12T20:08:56+08:00182.60625960061444
2026-04-12T20:09:19+08:00185.95879416282642
2026-04-12T20:09:34+08:00190.4480414746544
2026-04-12T22:08:02+08:00190.45011520737327
2026-04-12T22:11:09+08:00192.9682411674347
2026-04-12T22:11:47+08:00193.34681259600615
2026-04-12T22:12:09+08:00198.33145161290324
2026-04-12T22:12:25+08:00203.88828725038402
2026-04-13T08:43:51+08:00205.5874807987711
2026-04-13T08:44:00+08:00210.32069892473118
2026-04-13T08:44:21+08:00210.51597542242703
2026-04-13T08:44:29+08:00211.09781105990783
2026-04-13T08:44:55+08:00211.09781105990783
2026-04-13T08:45:16+08:00246.4549539170507
2026-04-13T08:45:51+08:00246.45545314900153
2026-04-13T09:14:57+08:00246.5416282642089
2026-04-13T09:15:26+08:00248.10096006144394
2026-04-13T09:15:54+08:00261.8375192012289
2026-04-13T09:16:40+08:00261.8635560675883
2026-04-13T09:17:21+08:00262.14212749615973
2026-04-13T09:17:53+08:00267.51847158218123
2026-04-13T09:18:33+08:00278.9725806451613
2026-04-13T09:52:06+08:00278.9728494623656
2026-04-13T10:02:43+08:00279.00545314900154
2026-04-13T10:03:30+08:00279.00848694316437
2026-04-13T10:04:04+08:00281.7390168970814
2026-04-13T10:04:21+08:00281.74719662058374
2026-04-13T10:05:26+08:00302.3808371735791
2026-04-13T10:28:35+08:00302.3947388632873
2026-04-13T11:09:26+08:00302.43890168970813
2026-04-13T11:09:39+08:00306.2400153609831
2026-04-13T11:10:20+08:00317.49961597542244
2026-04-13T11:10:51+08:00317.4709293394777
2026-04-13T11:11:03+08:00317.4711213517665
2026-04-13T11:13:40+08:00319.6910138248848
2026-04-13T11:45:32+08:00320.9582949308756
2026-04-13T11:51:13+08:00320.9722350230415
2026-04-13T12:02:38+08:00321.1000768049155
2026-04-13T12:08:47+08:00321.1581029185868
2026-04-13T12:09:36+08:00322.40994623655916
2026-04-13T12:10:27+08:00330.85464669738866
2026-04-13T12:11:46+08:00330.85480030721965
2026-04-13T13:45:44+08:00330.87415514592936
2026-04-13T13:45:47+08:00331.75326420890934
2026-04-13T13:45:50+08:00332.15238095238095
2026-04-13T13:45:53+08:00332.3589861751152
2026-04-13T13:45:57+08:00332.3479646697389
2026-04-13T13:46:00+08:00332.383064516129
2026-04-13T13:47:10+08:00333.3045698924731
2026-04-13T13:47:22+08:00333.3317204301075
2026-04-13T13:47:42+08:00341.53448540706603
2026-04-13T13:48:08+08:00342.1489247311828
2026-04-13T13:48:22+08:00342.27046850998465
2026-04-13T13:49:22+08:00342.3683179723502
2026-04-13T14:08:11+08:00342.4577188940092
2026-04-13T14:08:40+08:00342.5078341013825
2026-04-13T14:08:58+08:00343.56044546851
2026-04-13T14:09:11+08:00351.2178955453149
2026-04-13T14:09:32+08:00351.2930491551459
2026-04-13T14:10:39+08:00356.8858678955453
2026-04-13T15:10:44+08:00356.9390552995392
2026-04-13T15:10:50+08:00356.94032258064516
2026-04-13T15:10:58+08:00356.98306451612905
2026-04-13T15:11:16+08:00357.23705837173577
2026-04-13T15:11:38+08:00364.4874423963134
2026-04-13T15:12:02+08:00364.5178187403994
2026-04-13T15:12:29+08:00365.66309523809525
2026-04-13T15:34:17+08:00365.8976958525346
2026-04-13T15:34:24+08:00366.8051075268817
2026-04-13T16:04:37+08:00366.8120583717358
2026-04-13T16:04:43+08:00366.81451612903226
2026-04-13T16:05:16+08:00374.2799539170507
2026-04-13T16:05:48+08:00375.18636712749617
2026-04-13T16:06:07+08:00375.2554915514593
2026-04-13T17:10:52+08:00375.2557603686636
2026-04-13T17:11:16+08:00375.26478494623655
2026-04-13T17:11:30+08:00382.4268433179723
2026-04-13T17:12:25+08:00383.8297619047619
2026-04-13T17:29:00+08:00384.8282258064516
2026-04-13T17:30:42+08:00486.97876344086023
2026-04-13T17:32:32+08:00496.5793778801843
2026-04-13T18:13:28+08:00496.59051459293397
2026-04-13T18:13:45+08:00497.42980030721964
2026-04-13T18:14:12+08:00497.4815668202765
2026-04-13T18:14:17+08:00503.00384024577573
2026-04-13T18:15:01+08:00505.0701612903226
2026-04-13T20:36:36+08:00505.15691244239633
2026-04-13T20:36:45+08:00505.1559139784946
2026-04-13T20:37:21+08:00507.5056067588326
2026-04-13T20:37:31+08:00512.7897849462365
2026-04-13T20:37:44+08:00518.9879416282643
2026-04-13T22:07:57+08:00518.9921274961598
2026-04-13T22:09:31+08:00522.8161674347158
2026-04-13T22:09:55+08:00522.9023041474654
2026-04-13T22:10:00+08:00530.5597542242704
2026-04-13T22:10:14+08:00542.4606758832565
2026-04-14T08:35:19+08:00544.2937788018434
2026-04-14T08:35:27+08:00555.0291090629801
2026-04-14T08:35:53+08:00555.0427803379416
2026-04-14T08:36:01+08:00555.1506528417818
2026-04-14T08:36:27+08:00555.1506528417818
2026-04-14T08:37:25+08:00634.5630952380952
2026-04-14T08:38:10+08:00634.5634024577573
2026-04-14T09:03:44+08:00637.9768049155145
2026-04-14T09:04:10+08:00637.9767665130569
2026-04-14T09:04:46+08:00645.833371735791
2026-04-14T09:07:01+08:00674.627534562212
2026-04-14T09:26:13+08:00676.9316820276498
2026-04-14T09:40:07+08:00676.9329493087557
2026-04-14T10:07:49+08:00736.5105222734255
2026-04-14T10:08:36+08:00740.424193548387
2026-04-14T11:07:01+08:00741.0991551459293
2026-04-14T13:45:41+08:00804.0791858678955
2026-04-14T13:48:19+08:00809.0715053763441
2026-04-14T16:28:02+08:00820.98
TradeGo forecast multiple
TimeMultiple
Broker margin funds trend
TimeBrokerMargin funds
Prediction Model 1-Lot Expected Lots— Lots for expected 1-lot allotment—
Multiple derivation
Recent first-day return
+4.6%
→
Participants
22,156
→
Avg lots
77.8
→
Oversubscription
26x
26x = 22,156 × 77.8 ÷ 65,295 margin-weighted 100% → 1067.3x
1x3840.0x
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.50
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.60
This model does not support allocation strategy adjustment

Actual vs Predicted Comparison

Using the actual oversubscription ratio 1138.21x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.496, Pool B α=0.596) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier

Lots Subscription Amount (HKD) Actual Expected Lots Predicted Expected Lots Error

LogoGpixel Allotment Prediction Matrix

Rows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates expected ≥1 lot. Non-preset multiples are interpolated from the nearest grid points.

Offering Mechanism

Mechanism B

Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).

Allocation Strategy Coefficient α

α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].

  • α → 0: Per-capita allocation — regardless of lots subscribed, every allottee receives the same number of shares. More favorable to retail (small) applications.
  • α → 1: Proportional allocation — allotted shares are proportional to lots subscribed. More favorable to large applications.
  • Historical actual α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0. α varies widely across IPOs, reflecting each issuer's allocation strategy.
Allotment Rate Definition

The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").

Expected Allotment Lots

Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier

Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.

About this page

This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Gpixel (03277): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 22087 allotment-tier records across 592 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation). You can override the oversubscription multiple and the allocation-method α right on the page, replacing cibo's defaults to see expected lots under your own scenario. How allotment rates and clawback work is explained in How Hong Kong IPO Allotment Rates Work.
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.

Cibo — HK IPO Allotment Forecasts, Allottee Profiling & Stock Connect