Margin dynamics Margin multiple112.51x Margin funds517.7100M TradeGo forecast multiple150.76x
Rank Broker Margin funds
1 富途证券富途 330.0100M
2 老虎国际老虎 58.0100M
3 辉立证券辉立 54.0100M
4 华泰国际华泰 30.0100M
5 致富证券致富 11.7100M
6 华盛证券华盛 8.1100M
7 复星国际复星 7.5100M
8 盈立证券盈立 5.9100M
9 熊猫证券熊猫 4.9100M
Margin multiple
TimeMultiple
2026-06-17T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-17T10:12:12+08:000.0005216257335361878
2026-06-17T10:12:18+08:000.00269506628993697
2026-06-17T10:12:24+08:000.017909150184742446
2026-06-17T11:16:00+08:000.02016952836339926
2026-06-17T11:18:15+08:000.026255161921321452
2026-06-17T11:19:10+08:000.0397304933710063
2026-06-17T11:20:02+08:000.2701151923494892
2026-06-17T12:15:00+08:000.2705498804607694
2026-06-17T12:16:39+08:000.28317757009345795
2026-06-17T12:19:02+08:000.28402521191045427
2026-06-17T12:20:00+08:000.2847207128885025
2026-06-17T12:20:48+08:000.28906759400130405
2026-06-17T13:43:29+08:000.28939361008476416
2026-06-17T13:44:27+08:000.2894805477070202
2026-06-17T13:46:03+08:000.2912845033688329
2026-06-17T13:48:09+08:000.2963920886763747
2026-06-17T13:50:38+08:000.3072592914583786
2026-06-17T14:08:06+08:000.30786785481417084
2026-06-17T14:08:42+08:000.30799826124755486
2026-06-17T14:10:35+08:000.31903933927407085
2026-06-17T14:11:38+08:000.3190610736796349
2026-06-17T14:12:49+08:000.34296891980004346
2026-06-17T14:14:36+08:000.34994566398609
2026-06-17T15:07:35+08:000.3532058248206911
2026-06-17T15:09:25+08:000.3542925450988915
2026-06-17T15:09:58+08:000.35546620299934795
2026-06-17T15:11:32+08:000.8683981743099326
2026-06-17T16:27:12+08:000.8684416431210606
2026-06-17T16:28:09+08:000.8697674418604651
2026-06-17T16:31:18+08:000.8827646163877418
2026-06-17T16:32:50+08:000.9131927841773527
2026-06-17T16:34:50+08:000.9262334275157574
2026-06-17T16:36:02+08:000.935970441208433
2026-06-17T17:01:31+08:000.9381873505759617
2026-06-17T17:02:19+08:000.9385133666594219
2026-06-17T17:04:22+08:000.9409041512714628
2026-06-17T17:05:30+08:000.9412084329493589
2026-06-17T17:06:12+08:000.9420995435774832
2026-06-17T17:07:06+08:000.9660073896978918
2026-06-17T18:04:17+08:000.9707672245164095
2026-06-17T18:05:17+08:000.9711584438165616
2026-06-17T18:07:34+08:000.9711801782221257
2026-06-17T18:08:08+08:000.9717887415779178
2026-06-17T18:08:49+08:000.9905020647685285
2026-06-17T18:09:26+08:001.527341882199522
2026-06-17T18:13:02+08:001.5423386220386872
2026-06-17T20:22:01+08:002.042229950010867
2026-06-17T20:23:54+08:002.0423603564442514
2026-06-17T20:24:34+08:002.0426646381221474
2026-06-17T20:25:42+08:002.043751358400348
2026-06-17T20:26:57+08:002.0956531188871983
2026-06-17T20:32:09+08:002.0958269941317105
2026-06-17T20:33:15+08:002.1197348402521192
2026-06-17T22:23:53+08:002.119778309063247
2026-06-17T22:25:32+08:002.1205607476635513
2026-06-17T22:27:24+08:002.1265377091936535
2026-06-17T22:28:39+08:002.1569658769832647
2026-06-18T09:14:40+08:002.1591393175396654
2026-06-18T09:14:45+08:002.1591393175396654
2026-06-18T09:14:52+08:002.177570093457944
2026-06-18T09:14:58+08:002.17787437513584
2026-06-18T09:15:06+08:002.0366007389697893
2026-06-18T09:15:12+08:002.046511627906977
2026-06-18T09:15:24+08:002.047315800912845
2026-06-18T09:15:35+08:002.047337535318409
2026-06-18T09:15:42+08:002.0573353618778527
2026-06-18T09:15:50+08:002.0725494457726583
2026-06-18T10:02:53+08:002.0734840252119104
2026-06-18T10:02:59+08:002.0736144316452947
2026-06-18T10:04:02+08:002.0762442947185393
2026-06-18T10:04:08+08:002.0934362095196697
2026-06-18T10:09:34+08:002.139078461204086
2026-06-18T11:19:20+08:002.141751793088459
2026-06-18T11:20:18+08:002.142360356444251
2026-06-18T11:22:34+08:002.1440121712671156
2026-06-18T11:23:32+08:002.1457726581178003
2026-06-18T11:25:35+08:002.169680504238209
2026-06-18T12:16:54+08:002.1736144316452943
2026-06-18T12:19:05+08:002.178222125624864
2026-06-18T12:20:27+08:002.1791567050641163
2026-06-18T12:22:38+08:002.1846337752662466
2026-06-18T12:23:12+08:002.197674418604651
2026-06-18T14:05:41+08:002.1988046076939796
2026-06-18T14:05:43+08:002.199413171049772
2026-06-18T14:09:40+08:002.203542708106933
2026-06-18T14:09:43+08:002.208280808519887
2026-06-18T14:11:20+08:002.208346011736579
2026-06-18T14:11:23+08:002.208432949358835
2026-06-18T14:12:28+08:002.2453814388176485
2026-06-18T14:12:32+08:002.2519017604868505
2026-06-18T14:13:43+08:002.2547924364268637
2026-06-18T14:14:55+08:002.255031514888068
2026-06-18T14:14:59+08:002.2572484242555966
2026-06-18T14:20:47+08:002.32716800695501
2026-06-18T15:09:26+08:002.327863507933058
2026-06-18T15:10:34+08:002.328211258422082
2026-06-18T15:10:40+08:002.330015214083895
2026-06-18T15:10:46+08:002.330471636600739
2026-06-18T15:11:00+08:002.330493371006303
2026-06-18T15:11:06+08:002.3435340143447076
2026-06-18T16:12:13+08:002.3454031732232123
2026-06-18T16:12:44+08:002.3455335796565966
2026-06-18T16:14:32+08:002.3986742012605955
2026-06-18T16:15:31+08:002.3987828732884156
2026-06-18T16:16:41+08:002.399478374266464
2026-06-18T16:17:40+08:002.799391436644208
2026-06-18T17:48:04+08:002.8435340143447076
2026-06-18T17:50:03+08:002.853379700065203
2026-06-18T17:51:53+08:002.8536187785264073
2026-06-18T17:53:06+08:002.857530971527929
2026-06-18T17:53:50+08:003.0531406216039993
2026-06-18T17:55:58+08:003.313953488372093
2026-06-18T18:09:35+08:003.3285155400999784
2026-06-18T18:09:57+08:003.3432079982612475
2026-06-18T18:10:04+08:003.344446859378396
2026-06-18T18:10:11+08:003.354966311671376
2026-06-18T18:10:28+08:003.6788089545750924
2026-06-18T18:18:12+08:004.1715713975222775
2026-06-18T20:30:18+08:004.172984133883938
2026-06-18T20:30:52+08:004.1897630949793525
2026-06-18T20:32:38+08:004.201782221256249
2026-06-18T20:33:50+08:004.229558791567051
2026-06-18T20:35:03+08:004.237904803303629
2026-06-18T20:35:58+08:004.281373614431645
2026-06-18T21:34:53+08:004.282786350793306
2026-06-18T22:09:12+08:004.284199087154966
2026-06-18T22:09:30+08:004.295979134970659
2026-06-18T22:10:15+08:004.3005868289502285
2026-06-18T22:10:36+08:004.350575961747446
2026-06-19T09:15:45+08:004.146272549445773
2026-06-19T09:15:50+08:004.19408824168659
2026-06-19T09:19:59+08:004.200912845033688
2026-06-19T09:22:09+08:004.206628993697023
2026-06-19T09:24:39+08:004.255357530971528
2026-06-19T09:27:11+08:004.258269941317105
2026-06-19T09:27:16+08:004.261421430123886
2026-06-19T09:30:53+08:004.281916974570746
2026-06-19T10:16:35+08:004.282025646598566
2026-06-19T10:17:37+08:004.282590741143229
2026-06-19T10:19:32+08:004.28422082156053
2026-06-19T10:20:54+08:004.284938056944142
2026-06-19T10:23:25+08:004.284959791349706
2026-06-19T10:24:54+08:004.306694196913714
2026-06-19T11:40:18+08:004.307715713975223
2026-06-19T11:42:09+08:004.31041078026516
2026-06-19T11:43:28+08:004.311041078026516
2026-06-19T11:44:46+08:004.3111714844599
2026-06-19T11:45:39+08:004.369723973049337
2026-06-19T11:50:39+08:004.371897413605738
2026-06-19T12:08:13+08:004.373179743534014
2026-06-19T12:10:12+08:004.37370136926755
2026-06-19T12:11:33+08:004.376700717235384
2026-06-19T12:12:55+08:004.379091501847425
2026-06-19T12:13:34+08:004.379004564225168
2026-06-19T12:14:46+08:004.4268202564659855
2026-06-19T14:12:40+08:004.427102803738317
2026-06-19T14:12:55+08:004.427341882199522
2026-06-19T14:18:12+08:004.428102586394262
2026-06-19T14:18:16+08:004.429406650728103
2026-06-19T14:20:08+08:004.42988480765051
2026-06-19T14:20:12+08:004.430123886111715
2026-06-19T14:23:21+08:004.430732449467507
2026-06-19T14:23:25+08:004.437817865681374
2026-06-19T14:24:51+08:004.4462290806346445
2026-06-19T14:24:55+08:004.457965659639209
2026-06-19T14:27:08+08:004.497087589654423
2026-06-19T14:27:13+08:004.510128232992828
2026-06-19T15:16:11+08:004.510149967398392
2026-06-19T15:16:57+08:004.510562921104108
2026-06-19T15:18:13+08:004.523451423603564
2026-06-19T15:18:54+08:004.524103455770485
2026-06-19T15:19:59+08:004.524255596609433
2026-06-19T15:21:26+08:004.539469680504238
2026-06-19T17:10:26+08:004.5396000869376225
2026-06-19T17:10:30+08:004.54007824386003
2026-06-19T17:12:52+08:004.540099978265594
2026-06-19T17:15:03+08:004.922625516192132
2026-06-19T17:15:07+08:004.933492718974136
2026-06-19T17:18:06+08:004.934666376874593
2026-06-19T17:18:09+08:004.934861986524669
2026-06-19T17:20:19+08:004.937209302325582
2026-06-19T17:20:22+08:004.938274288198218
2026-06-19T17:23:00+08:004.9399695718322105
2026-06-19T17:23:04+08:004.940143447076722
2026-06-19T22:46:55+08:004.941534449032819
2026-06-19T22:53:53+08:004.945837861334493
2026-06-19T22:58:02+08:004.947054988046077
2026-06-19T23:06:37+08:004.947859161051945
2026-06-19T23:06:41+08:004.952119104542491
2026-06-19T23:11:20+08:004.953162356009563
2026-06-19T23:11:24+08:004.953662247337535
2026-06-19T23:17:01+08:005.320973701369268
2026-06-19T23:23:49+08:005.32256031297544
2026-06-19T23:25:23+08:005.324994566398609
2026-06-20T10:23:09+08:005.324994566398609
2026-06-20T10:24:32+08:005.401391001956097
2026-06-20T10:26:00+08:005.406107367963486
2026-06-20T10:27:49+08:005.417344055640078
2026-06-20T10:29:13+08:005.420539013257987
2026-06-20T10:30:21+08:005.421734405564008
2026-06-20T10:32:39+08:005.504325146707237
2026-06-20T10:33:12+08:005.513018908932841
2026-06-20T12:20:20+08:005.522842860247772
2026-06-20T12:21:34+08:005.523190610736797
2026-06-20T12:23:33+08:005.524038252553793
2026-06-20T12:24:14+08:005.527254944577265
2026-06-20T12:25:10+08:005.52847207128885
2026-06-20T12:26:57+08:005.602369050206477
2026-06-20T14:13:50+08:005.602760269506629
2026-06-20T14:14:56+08:005.6128232992827645
2026-06-20T14:15:30+08:005.612997174527277
2026-06-20T14:16:48+08:005.613214518582917
2026-06-20T14:18:10+08:005.615214083894806
2026-06-20T14:19:30+08:005.702151706150837
2026-06-20T18:33:55+08:005.726168224299065
2026-06-20T18:36:23+08:005.733666594218648
2026-06-20T18:37:29+08:005.735470549880461
2026-06-20T18:38:22+08:005.744120843294936
2026-06-20T18:39:49+08:005.745816126928928
2026-06-20T18:40:54+08:005.80449902195175
2026-06-20T18:41:19+08:005.86100847641817
2026-06-20T20:12:20+08:005.863116713757878
2026-06-20T20:14:08+08:005.8631384481634425
2026-06-20T20:15:01+08:005.864464246902847
2026-06-20T20:16:11+08:005.865072810258639
2026-06-20T20:17:43+08:005.868050423820908
2026-06-20T20:18:29+08:005.92673331884373
2026-06-20T22:05:58+08:005.927885242338622
2026-06-20T22:06:53+08:005.930319495761791
2026-06-20T22:08:25+08:005.944186046511628
2026-06-20T22:09:13+08:005.9963486198652465
2026-06-21T09:50:19+08:006.007628776352966
2026-06-21T09:50:26+08:006.008346011736579
2026-06-21T09:50:52+08:006.109454466420344
2026-06-21T09:51:01+08:006.112388611171484
2026-06-21T09:51:09+08:006.673136274722887
2026-06-21T09:51:17+08:006.681895240165182
2026-06-21T09:51:32+08:006.684807650510758
2026-06-21T09:51:40+08:006.712736361660508
2026-06-21T09:51:49+08:006.723994783742665
2026-06-21T09:51:57+08:006.724103455770485
2026-06-21T09:52:05+08:006.73931753966529
2026-06-21T10:08:17+08:006.7391653988263425
2026-06-21T10:08:25+08:006.73942621169311
2026-06-21T10:08:33+08:006.741447511410563
2026-06-21T10:08:47+08:006.743121060638991
2026-06-21T10:08:55+08:006.753988263420996
2026-06-21T12:36:43+08:006.7547707020212995
2026-06-21T12:36:48+08:006.764138230819387
2026-06-21T12:39:38+08:006.764159965224951
2026-06-21T12:39:42+08:006.764355574875027
2026-06-21T12:41:18+08:006.767398391653988
2026-06-21T12:44:26+08:006.7933927407085415
2026-06-21T12:44:31+08:006.79430558574223
2026-06-21T12:47:02+08:006.79397956965877
2026-06-21T12:47:20+08:006.795979134970659
2026-06-21T12:47:50+08:006.80032601608346
2026-06-21T12:47:55+08:006.822060421647468
2026-06-21T13:05:14+08:006.822169093675288
2026-06-21T13:06:10+08:006.836557270158661
2026-06-21T13:07:26+08:006.837317974353401
2026-06-21T13:08:06+08:006.848206911540969
2026-06-21T13:08:29+08:006.857748315583569
2026-06-21T13:09:12+08:006.866442077809172
2026-06-21T15:48:44+08:006.866789828298196
2026-06-21T15:50:47+08:006.86876765920452
2026-06-21T15:51:55+08:006.869137144099109
2026-06-21T15:52:31+08:006.873071071506194
2026-06-21T15:53:30+08:006.876157357096283
2026-06-21T15:54:47+08:006.95005433601391
2026-06-21T18:30:51+08:006.951336665942186
2026-06-21T18:31:45+08:006.952901543142795
2026-06-21T18:33:53+08:006.960204303412302
2026-06-21T18:35:25+08:006.965420560747663
2026-06-21T18:36:28+08:006.968050423820909
2026-06-21T18:37:35+08:007.052814605520539
2026-06-21T20:05:52+08:007.055466202999348
2026-06-21T20:06:45+08:007.0571614866333405
2026-06-21T20:08:11+08:007.050684633775266
2026-06-21T20:09:22+08:007.058552488589437
2026-06-21T20:09:47+08:007.061617039773962
2026-06-21T20:11:01+08:007.089871767007172
2026-06-21T21:06:20+08:007.090197783090632
2026-06-21T22:10:56+08:007.107976526841991
2026-06-21T22:11:37+08:007.1102586394262115
2026-06-21T22:12:37+08:007.1126276896326885
2026-06-21T22:13:37+08:007.127081069332753
2026-06-21T22:14:41+08:007.1966311671375784
2026-06-21T22:14:45+08:007.355292327754836
2026-06-22T09:07:52+08:007.357683112366876
2026-06-22T09:07:57+08:007.368289502282113
2026-06-22T09:08:21+08:007.368289502282113
2026-06-22T09:08:27+08:007.401782221256249
2026-06-22T09:08:34+08:007.437013692675506
2026-06-22T09:08:41+08:007.334861986524668
2026-06-22T09:08:53+08:007.381916974570745
2026-06-22T09:09:08+08:007.400847641816997
2026-06-22T09:09:14+08:007.4061725711801785
2026-06-22T09:09:19+08:007.4377091936535535
2026-06-22T09:09:25+08:007.4548576396435555
2026-06-22T09:09:31+08:007.71784394696805
2026-06-22T09:09:38+08:007.756965876983265
2026-06-22T10:10:19+08:007.8188654640295585
2026-06-22T10:10:25+08:007.867181047598348
2026-06-22T10:10:31+08:007.89354488154749
2026-06-22T10:10:38+08:007.93812214735927
2026-06-22T10:10:53+08:008.10547707020213
2026-06-22T11:14:21+08:008.137231036731146
2026-06-22T11:18:12+08:008.150119539230602
2026-06-22T11:19:48+08:008.201217126711585
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2026-06-23T08:36:52+08:0076.58348185177135
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2026-06-23T08:42:48+08:0081.15196696370354
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2026-06-23T09:10:57+08:0084.14494675070637
2026-06-23T09:11:03+08:0084.20371658335145
2026-06-23T09:11:09+08:0089.50473810041295
2026-06-23T10:09:15+08:0090.83488372093024
2026-06-23T10:13:35+08:0092.50786785481417
2026-06-23T10:14:10+08:00106.13751358400347
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TradeGo forecast multiple
TimeMultiple
Broker margin funds trend
TimeBrokerMargin funds
Prediction Model 1-Lot Expected Lots— Lots for expected 1-lot allotment—
Multiple derivation
Recent first-day return
+4.6%
→
Participants
15,760
→
Avg lots
32.2
→
Oversubscription
9x
9x = 15,760 × 32.2 ÷ 54,002 A+H secondary · participants ×0.44 H-share discount 40.4% margin-weighted 100% → 150.8x
1x2173.0x
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.54
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.64
This model does not support allocation strategy adjustment

Actual vs Predicted Comparison

Using the actual oversubscription ratio 251.73x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.541, Pool B α=0.641) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier

Lots Subscription Amount (HKD) Actual Expected Lots Predicted Expected Lots Error

LogoSG Micro Allotment Prediction Matrix

Rows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates expected ≥1 lot. Non-preset multiples are interpolated from the nearest grid points.

Offering Mechanism

Mechanism B

Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).

Allocation Strategy Coefficient α

α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].

  • α → 0: Per-capita allocation — regardless of lots subscribed, every allottee receives the same number of shares. More favorable to retail (small) applications.
  • α → 1: Proportional allocation — allotted shares are proportional to lots subscribed. More favorable to large applications.
  • Historical actual α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0. α varies widely across IPOs, reflecting each issuer's allocation strategy.
Allotment Rate Definition

The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").

Expected Allotment Lots

Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier

Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.

About this page

This page shows expected-lot forecasts for SG Micro (03661): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 22087 allotment-tier records across 592 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation). You can override the oversubscription multiple and the allocation-method α right on the page, replacing cibo's defaults to see expected lots under your own scenario. How allotment rates and clawback work is explained in How Hong Kong IPO Allotment Rates Work.
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.

Cibo — HK IPO Allotment Forecasts, Allottee Profiling & Stock Connect