Margin dynamics Margin multiple898.5x Margin funds1206.4100M TradeGo forecast multiple1168.05x
Rank Broker Margin funds
1 富途证券富途 626.7100M
2 辉立证券辉立 363.0100M
3 老虎国际老虎 96.9100M
4 华泰国际华泰 28.4100M
5 信诚证券信诚 20.0100M
6 致富证券致富 16.0100M
7 盈立证券盈立 13.9100M
8 华盛证券华盛 13.1100M
9 复星国际复星 11.3100M
Margin multiple
TimeMultiple
2026-06-12T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-12T10:07:36+08:000.02249199374394876
2026-06-12T10:08:15+08:000.022566470544425413
2026-06-12T10:08:29+08:000.054442541148432264
2026-06-12T11:07:33+08:000.0758918596857079
2026-06-12T11:08:07+08:000.1610188426305206
2026-06-12T11:08:23+08:000.17755269233633722
2026-06-12T11:08:52+08:000.5201459745289342
2026-06-12T11:09:06+08:000.55738437476726
2026-06-12T11:22:45+08:000.5580546659715498
2026-06-12T11:43:18+08:000.558650480375363
2026-06-12T12:07:30+08:000.5860579429507708
2026-06-12T12:07:44+08:000.62322186638862
2026-06-12T12:08:14+08:000.6306695464362851
2026-06-12T12:08:36+08:001.219036270201832
2026-06-12T12:08:54+08:001.2196320846056454
2026-06-12T12:09:08+08:001.2200789454085053
2026-06-12T13:40:01+08:001.2279734862590304
2026-06-12T13:40:45+08:001.1990020108736128
2026-06-12T13:41:07+08:001.383183138452372
2026-06-12T13:41:53+08:001.68
2026-06-12T14:02:30+08:001.6900275564161764
2026-06-12T14:03:01+08:001.694794071646682
2026-06-12T14:04:17+08:002.3371564757578014
2026-06-12T14:05:08+08:002.4192299098830716
2026-06-12T14:06:02+08:002.9778059134579578
2026-06-12T15:06:44+08:002.98331719669323
2026-06-12T15:07:00+08:002.9883816191256423
2026-06-12T15:07:11+08:003.0541446339465255
2026-06-12T15:07:28+08:003.0692634244432857
2026-06-12T15:10:08+08:003.1884263052059283
2026-06-12T16:07:09+08:003.1991509644745664
2026-06-12T16:07:55+08:003.2035450957026885
2026-06-12T16:08:19+08:003.2058538765174647
2026-06-12T16:08:37+08:003.2173233037908693
2026-06-12T16:08:58+08:003.3588292246965072
2026-06-12T16:28:31+08:003.5822596261264614
2026-06-12T17:04:07+08:003.6262754152081627
2026-06-12T17:05:48+08:003.65681090340359
2026-06-12T17:06:15+08:003.664854397855068
2026-06-12T17:06:39+08:003.6664184106650777
2026-06-12T17:06:56+08:003.7557905712370596
2026-06-12T17:16:04+08:007.479630595069636
2026-06-12T18:04:57+08:007.312877038802413
2026-06-12T18:05:20+08:007.337007522156848
2026-06-12T18:05:53+08:007.36054219110747
2026-06-12T18:05:59+08:007.367021672748939
2026-06-12T18:06:20+08:007.369032546361808
2026-06-12T18:07:29+08:007.503090787219781
2026-06-12T20:04:31+08:007.5062188128398
2026-06-12T20:05:53+08:007.580695613316452
2026-06-12T20:06:02+08:007.577716541297386
2026-06-12T20:06:11+08:007.5555224547553435
2026-06-12T20:06:30+08:007.565800253221122
2026-06-12T20:07:02+08:007.655172413793103
2026-06-12T22:04:01+08:007.657183287405973
2026-06-12T22:05:01+08:007.776346168168615
2026-06-12T22:05:17+08:007.796603857898265
2026-06-12T22:05:36+08:007.803902584344977
2026-06-12T22:05:58+08:007.893274744916958
2026-06-13T10:09:50+08:007.893274744916958
2026-06-13T10:12:22+08:008.196991137260744
2026-06-13T10:12:41+08:008.196544276457884
2026-06-13T10:13:08+08:009.075370522082371
2026-06-13T10:13:24+08:009.104639904669696
2026-06-13T10:13:28+08:009.21062039174797
2026-06-13T10:14:18+08:009.262754152081627
2026-06-13T12:57:14+08:009.285246145825575
2026-06-13T12:58:02+08:009.290385045058464
2026-06-13T12:58:44+08:009.294779176286587
2026-06-13T13:01:25+08:009.302226856334253
2026-06-13T13:02:13+08:009.3990466969539
2026-06-13T13:02:26+08:009.401281000968199
2026-06-13T13:02:36+08:009.401206524167721
2026-06-13T13:03:17+08:009.412675951441127
2026-06-13T13:06:26+08:009.464809711774782
2026-06-13T15:25:55+08:009.546734192299098
2026-06-13T15:26:10+08:009.547776867505773
2026-06-13T15:26:25+08:009.549340880315782
2026-06-13T15:26:30+08:009.563789379608252
2026-06-13T15:26:50+08:009.597601847024652
2026-06-13T15:27:32+08:009.627392567215312
2026-06-13T18:27:52+08:009.665524689059358
2026-06-13T18:28:26+08:009.672302077902733
2026-06-13T18:28:47+08:009.708199895732479
2026-06-13T18:29:19+08:009.717583972592537
2026-06-13T18:30:52+08:0010.238921575929098
2026-06-13T18:31:08+08:0010.31339837640575
2026-06-13T20:09:46+08:0010.31719669323006
2026-06-13T20:10:32+08:0010.652342295374991
2026-06-13T20:10:41+08:0010.654948983391673
2026-06-13T20:10:52+08:0010.68972964921427
2026-06-13T20:11:11+08:0010.695911223653832
2026-06-13T20:11:37+08:0010.710806583749163
2026-06-13T22:33:10+08:0010.713934609369181
2026-06-13T22:33:16+08:0010.714679377373947
2026-06-13T22:33:35+08:0010.714977284575854
2026-06-13T22:33:50+08:0010.716466820585387
2026-06-13T22:34:09+08:0010.717062634989201
2026-06-13T22:34:32+08:0011.342667758993073
2026-06-14T09:39:26+08:0011.343784911000224
2026-06-14T09:40:23+08:0011.3438593878007
2026-06-14T09:40:27+08:0011.344902063007373
2026-06-14T09:40:32+08:0011.351679451850748
2026-06-14T09:46:48+08:0011.537871453042378
2026-06-14T09:47:26+08:0011.545765993892902
2026-06-14T09:49:06+08:0011.566619498026364
2026-06-14T12:40:20+08:0011.567289789230655
2026-06-14T12:40:25+08:0012.079466746108587
2026-06-14T12:40:30+08:0012.079913606911447
2026-06-14T12:42:19+08:0012.079988083711923
2026-06-14T12:42:24+08:0012.080285990913831
2026-06-14T12:42:28+08:0012.080658374916213
2026-06-14T12:44:43+08:0012.087733670961496
2026-06-14T12:44:47+08:0012.089074253370075
2026-06-14T12:44:52+08:0012.092574662992478
2026-06-14T12:46:57+08:0012.122365383183139
2026-06-14T12:47:01+08:0012.1521561033738
2026-06-14T12:47:06+08:0012.18194682356446
2026-06-14T12:51:11+08:0012.184404557980189
2026-06-14T12:51:25+08:0012.210545914947494
2026-06-14T16:12:07+08:0012.245475534371044
2026-06-14T16:12:12+08:0012.24555001117152
2026-06-14T16:19:25+08:0012.282788411409847
2026-06-14T16:19:39+08:0012.327474491695837
2026-06-14T16:19:45+08:0012.364712891934163
2026-06-14T16:19:55+08:0012.483875772696805
2026-06-14T16:27:10+08:0012.484173679898712
2026-06-14T16:27:16+08:0012.486556937513964
2026-06-14T16:27:20+08:0012.487078275117302
2026-06-14T16:27:25+08:0012.487003798316824
2026-06-14T16:29:11+08:0012.487674089521114
2026-06-14T16:29:15+08:0012.502718403217397
2026-06-14T16:29:19+08:0012.538988605049527
2026-06-14T16:29:24+08:0012.54025471065763
2026-06-14T16:31:07+08:0012.542042153869069
2026-06-14T19:09:57+08:0012.5569375139644
2026-06-14T19:10:46+08:0012.906978476204662
2026-06-14T19:10:55+08:0012.966559916585984
2026-06-14T19:11:39+08:0012.967826022194087
2026-06-14T19:11:51+08:0012.9684218365979
2026-06-14T19:13:47+08:0012.97177329261935
2026-06-14T19:13:50+08:0012.972220153422208
2026-06-14T19:13:54+08:0012.972592537424593
2026-06-14T19:17:21+08:0012.97378416623222
2026-06-14T19:17:34+08:0012.974305503835556
2026-06-14T19:17:46+08:0012.976092947046995
2026-06-14T19:19:21+08:0012.978029343859388
2026-06-14T19:19:25+08:0012.978327251061295
2026-06-14T19:19:29+08:0012.97996574067178
2026-06-14T22:04:53+08:0013.005585760035748
2026-06-14T22:06:25+08:0013.176882401132048
2026-06-14T22:06:45+08:0013.29604528189469
2026-06-14T22:06:58+08:0013.459894242943323
2026-06-14T22:09:01+08:0013.46153273255381
2026-06-14T22:09:06+08:0013.461607209354286
2026-06-14T22:09:11+08:0013.461905116556192
2026-06-14T22:09:47+08:0013.462500930960006
2026-06-15T08:33:57+08:0013.482833097490133
2026-06-15T08:34:09+08:0013.507410441647426
2026-06-15T08:35:36+08:0013.507410441647426
2026-06-15T08:36:05+08:0014.371341327176584
2026-06-15T09:20:03+08:0014.862888210322485
2026-06-15T09:20:13+08:0015.042600729872644
2026-06-15T09:20:25+08:0015.07008266924853
2026-06-15T09:20:32+08:0015.122439859983615
2026-06-15T09:20:39+08:0015.152826394578089
2026-06-15T09:20:54+08:0015.264541595293066
2026-06-15T10:07:09+08:0015.308706337975721
2026-06-15T10:07:22+08:0015.350711253444553
2026-06-15T10:07:28+08:0015.463618082967155
2026-06-15T10:07:34+08:0015.578088925299769
2026-06-15T10:07:54+08:0016.613316451925225
2026-06-15T11:07:38+08:0016.66373724584792
2026-06-15T11:08:49+08:0017.026364787368735
2026-06-15T11:10:01+08:0017.055932077157966
2026-06-15T11:10:44+08:0017.07961569970954
2026-06-15T11:11:22+08:0017.839279064571386
2026-06-15T12:09:20+08:0017.980784985477023
2026-06-15T12:10:12+08:0018.036121248231176
2026-06-15T12:11:46+08:0018.176063156326805
2026-06-15T12:12:22+08:0019.315558203619574
2026-06-15T12:14:04+08:0019.342444328591643
2026-06-15T12:15:12+08:0019.62523274000149
2026-06-15T13:46:20+08:0019.669844343487004
2026-06-15T13:47:49+08:0019.675430103522753
2026-06-15T13:49:23+08:0019.681388247560886
2026-06-15T13:50:02+08:0019.690474417219036
2026-06-15T13:50:26+08:0019.973486259030313
2026-06-15T14:01:25+08:0019.99113726074328
2026-06-15T14:01:58+08:0019.99620168317569
2026-06-15T14:03:26+08:0020.013852684888658
2026-06-15T14:04:06+08:0020.05757056676845
2026-06-15T14:05:51+08:0021.461830639755718
2026-06-15T14:07:55+08:0021.789528561852983
2026-06-15T14:49:32+08:0023.279064571386012
2026-06-15T15:09:32+08:0023.34676398301929
2026-06-15T15:11:33+08:0023.545244656289565
2026-06-15T15:12:06+08:0023.555299024353914
2026-06-15T15:12:42+08:0023.589037014969836
2026-06-15T15:13:13+08:0023.805019736352126
2026-06-15T16:12:49+08:0023.824234750875103
2026-06-15T16:14:21+08:0024.439189692410814
2026-06-15T16:15:04+08:0024.456468310121398
2026-06-15T16:15:52+08:0024.483801295896328
2026-06-15T16:16:22+08:0026.733000670291204
2026-06-15T16:34:48+08:0027.366053474342742
2026-06-15T17:04:22+08:0027.369330453563716
2026-06-15T17:04:38+08:0027.752588068816564
2026-06-15T17:05:43+08:0029.694272734043345
2026-06-15T17:06:48+08:0031.296194235495644
2026-06-15T17:07:39+08:0045.1339837640575
2026-06-15T18:09:08+08:0077.90377597378416
2026-06-15T18:09:32+08:0078.27615997616742
2026-06-15T18:10:01+08:0078.63022268563343
2026-06-15T18:11:23+08:0079.15803977061145
2026-06-15T18:11:42+08:0080.24957175839727
2026-06-15T18:12:18+08:0080.32620838608773
2026-06-15T18:14:24+08:0087.99731883518284
2026-06-15T18:18:05+08:0089.84099203098235
2026-06-15T20:18:56+08:0090.06196469799657
2026-06-15T20:21:04+08:0090.77463320175765
2026-06-15T20:22:08+08:0091.47359797423103
2026-06-15T20:23:06+08:0092.9263424443286
2026-06-15T20:24:34+08:00100.09101065018247
2026-06-15T20:25:01+08:00106.18321292917257
2026-06-15T21:47:43+08:00106.49072763834066
2026-06-15T22:06:23+08:00111.09339390779772
2026-06-15T22:06:47+08:00115.59216504058986
2026-06-15T22:07:06+08:00116.13517539286512
2026-06-15T22:07:56+08:00126.15975273702242
2026-06-16T08:50:55+08:00126.15975273702242
2026-06-16T08:52:43+08:00129.98718999031803
2026-06-16T08:52:48+08:00135.46741639979146
2026-06-16T08:54:35+08:00175.8338422581366
2026-06-16T09:01:32+08:00177.3011097043271
2026-06-16T09:08:09+08:00187.8175318388322
2026-06-16T09:09:33+08:00189.10233112385492
2026-06-16T09:10:49+08:00192.677813361138
2026-06-16T09:11:25+08:00202.24063454234008
2026-06-16T09:12:04+08:00204.0854993669472
2026-06-16T09:30:44+08:00207.06457138601326
2026-06-16T10:20:56+08:00207.10821479109256
2026-06-16T10:21:56+08:00209.516720041707
2026-06-16T10:22:55+08:00220.9116705146347
2026-06-16T10:23:38+08:00221.5684814180383
2026-06-16T10:23:57+08:00221.9582929917331
2026-06-16T11:15:26+08:00223.2819691666046
2026-06-16T11:16:22+08:00223.33037908691443
2026-06-16T11:16:58+08:00223.55716094436582
2026-06-16T11:17:20+08:00224.07961569970954
2026-06-16T11:17:49+08:00233.06151783719372
2026-06-16T12:04:12+08:00233.07969017651
2026-06-16T12:06:08+08:00233.48499292470396
2026-06-16T12:07:15+08:00233.5639383332092
2026-06-16T12:08:11+08:00233.95955909734118
2026-06-16T12:08:41+08:00242.9340135547777
2026-06-16T13:44:44+08:00242.95106874208685
2026-06-16T13:45:22+08:00243.33201757652492
2026-06-16T13:46:12+08:00252.35860579429507
2026-06-16T13:46:44+08:00252.44954196767708
2026-06-16T13:47:13+08:00252.50711253444553
2026-06-16T14:01:24+08:00255.11022566470544
2026-06-16T14:01:56+08:00255.21426975497133
2026-06-16T14:04:01+08:00258.82125567885606
2026-06-16T14:06:39+08:00259.0603262083861
2026-06-16T14:07:20+08:00260.1100767111045
2026-06-16T14:08:13+08:00275.05757056676845
2026-06-16T15:07:51+08:00275.80233857153496
2026-06-16T15:08:29+08:00277.76577046250094
2026-06-16T15:09:01+08:00277.96291055336263
2026-06-16T15:09:16+08:00278.1147687495345
2026-06-16T15:09:46+08:00278.3980784985477
2026-06-16T15:10:47+08:00282.93371564757575
2026-06-16T16:01:05+08:00283.25150815520965
2026-06-16T16:01:39+08:00283.39651448573767
2026-06-16T16:04:38+08:00285.5276681313771
2026-06-16T16:05:07+08:00285.7061890221196
2026-06-16T16:06:14+08:00292.8261711476875
2026-06-16T17:20:34+08:00293.13927161689134
2026-06-16T17:21:25+08:00295.16504058985623
2026-06-16T17:22:29+08:00295.49199374394874
2026-06-16T17:23:30+08:00295.9697624190065
2026-06-16T17:23:56+08:00306.478438966262
2026-06-16T17:24:48+08:00319.8842630520593
2026-06-16T17:47:23+08:00320.63647873687347
2026-06-16T17:47:27+08:00470.33484769494305
2026-06-16T18:03:25+08:00470.40142995456915
2026-06-16T18:04:36+08:00470.6285841960229
2026-06-16T18:05:03+08:00472.5931332389961
2026-06-16T18:05:09+08:00472.7525880688166
2026-06-16T18:06:22+08:00482.47925821106725
2026-06-16T18:08:35+08:00485.7688240113205
2026-06-16T20:15:04+08:00486.1725627467044
2026-06-16T20:15:37+08:00486.3714158039771
2026-06-16T20:27:59+08:00486.7187011245997
2026-06-16T20:29:12+08:00489.901094808967
2026-06-16T20:30:21+08:00501.25880688165637
2026-06-16T20:30:42+08:00512.4899083935354
2026-06-16T21:56:32+08:00512.7636106352871
2026-06-16T22:06:37+08:00526.2737022417517
2026-06-16T22:07:00+08:00530.3817680792433
2026-06-16T22:07:10+08:00531.3353690325464
2026-06-16T22:07:51+08:00547.7500558576004
2026-06-17T09:21:37+08:00550.6957622700529
2026-06-17T09:22:10+08:00550.6957622700529
2026-06-17T09:22:36+08:00562.6096670887018
2026-06-17T09:22:52+08:00652.9947121471662
2026-06-17T09:23:10+08:00654.6559171817979
2026-06-17T09:23:23+08:00658.0665077828256
2026-06-17T09:23:29+08:00663.1697326282863
2026-06-17T09:23:35+08:00663.797497579504
2026-06-17T09:23:46+08:00696.9992552319952
2026-06-17T09:23:52+08:00700.3507112534445
2026-06-17T10:09:03+08:00707.8066582259626
2026-06-17T10:09:09+08:00800.1057570566768
2026-06-17T11:18:26+08:00801.5729500260669
2026-06-17T16:33:14+08:00885.731734564683
2026-06-17T17:38:22+08:00898.5
TradeGo forecast multiple
TimeMultiple
Broker margin funds trend
TimeBrokerMargin funds
Prediction Model 1-Lot Expected Lots— Lots for expected 1-lot allotment—
Multiple derivation
Recent first-day return
-0.2%
→
Participants
17,779
→
Avg lots
52.1
→
Oversubscription
31x
31x = 17,779 × 52.1 ÷ 29,905 A+H secondary · participants ×0.44 H-share discount 56.4% margin-weighted 100% → 1168.0x
1x7447.0x
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.54
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.64
This model does not support allocation strategy adjustment

Actual vs Predicted Comparison

Using the actual oversubscription ratio 1563.16x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.544, Pool B α=0.644) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier

Lots Subscription Amount (HKD) Actual Expected Lots Predicted Expected Lots Error

LogoSenior Material Allotment Prediction Matrix

Rows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates expected ≥1 lot. Non-preset multiples are interpolated from the nearest grid points.

Offering Mechanism

Mechanism B

Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).

Allocation Strategy Coefficient α

α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].

  • α → 0: Per-capita allocation — regardless of lots subscribed, every allottee receives the same number of shares. More favorable to retail (small) applications.
  • α → 1: Proportional allocation — allotted shares are proportional to lots subscribed. More favorable to large applications.
  • Historical actual α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0. α varies widely across IPOs, reflecting each issuer's allocation strategy.
Allotment Rate Definition

The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").

Expected Allotment Lots

Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier

Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.

About this page

This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Senior Material (06067): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 22087 allotment-tier records across 592 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation). You can override the oversubscription multiple and the allocation-method α right on the page, replacing cibo's defaults to see expected lots under your own scenario. How allotment rates and clawback work is explained in How Hong Kong IPO Allotment Rates Work.
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.

Cibo — HK IPO Allotment Forecasts, Allottee Profiling & Stock Connect