DIRECT DRIVE 06731Expected Lots

DIRECT DRIVE (06731) Expected Lots
Offering Mechanism: 18C | Min Subscription: HK$2,160  |  Public Offering Lots: Pool A 12,500lots / Pool B 12,500lots  |  Offer Price: HK$21.60  |  Lot Size: 100shares  |  Public Offering Size: HK$216.0M
1x18518.0x
Recent first-day return
+4.6%
→
Participants
38,862
→
Avg lots
100.9
→
Oversubscription
157x
157x = 38,862 × 100.9 ÷ 25,000 Robot margin-weighted 100% → 211.0x
Margin dynamics · 2026-09-24 17:40 Margin multiple149.66x Margin funds80.8100M TradeGo forecast multiple211.02x
Rank Broker Margin funds
1 富途证券富途 31.3100M
2 辉立证券辉立 25.0100M
3 老虎国际老虎 9.2100M
4 盈立证券盈立 3.9100M
6 华泰国际华泰 2.7100M
7 复星国际复星 2.3100M
8 致富证券致富 1.6100M
9 华盛证券华盛 1.1100M
10 熊猫证券熊猫 1.1100M
11 信诚证券信诚 800010K
12 东证国际东证 684810K
13 TradeGo MarketsTradeGo 629710K
14 长桥证券长桥 346210K
15 艾德证券艾德 179010K
16 盈宝证券盈宝 44710K
17 兴证国际兴证 2410K
Margin multiple
TimeMultiple
2026-09-21T06:00:00+08:000
2026-09-21T10:15:50+08:000.09277777777777778
2026-09-21T10:15:56+08:000.09907407407407408
2026-09-21T10:16:02+08:000.1
2026-09-21T11:05:19+08:000.13203703703703704
2026-09-21T11:05:26+08:000.14277777777777778
2026-09-21T11:05:33+08:000.14814814814814814
2026-09-21T11:05:40+08:000.15203703703703703
2026-09-21T11:05:47+08:000.1701851851851852
2026-09-21T11:05:54+08:000.22
2026-09-21T11:44:44+08:000.24
2026-09-21T12:17:09+08:000.2594444444444444
2026-09-21T12:17:12+08:000.26481481481481484
2026-09-21T12:17:16+08:000.3337037037037037
2026-09-21T12:17:19+08:000.3351851851851852
2026-09-21T12:17:21+08:000.3414814814814815
2026-09-21T12:17:24+08:000.41
2026-09-21T13:49:15+08:000.42333333333333334
2026-09-21T13:49:21+08:000.4287037037037037
2026-09-21T13:49:24+08:000.5544444444444444
2026-09-21T13:49:27+08:000.5590740740740741
2026-09-21T13:49:29+08:000.5592592592592592
2026-09-21T13:49:32+08:000.7074074074074074
2026-09-21T13:50:12+08:000.7
2026-09-21T14:11:11+08:000.7177777777777777
2026-09-21T14:11:13+08:000.7505555555555555
2026-09-21T14:11:16+08:000.7516666666666667
2026-09-21T14:11:19+08:000.7587037037037037
2026-09-21T14:11:21+08:000.7916666666666666
2026-09-21T14:11:24+08:000.792037037037037
2026-09-21T14:11:26+08:000.9031481481481481
2026-09-21T14:14:07+08:000.9
2026-09-21T15:08:49+08:001.0864814814814814
2026-09-21T15:08:52+08:001.1235185185185186
2026-09-21T15:08:55+08:001.1272222222222221
2026-09-21T15:08:57+08:001.1396296296296295
2026-09-21T15:09:00+08:001.1064814814814814
2026-09-21T15:09:02+08:001.13
2026-09-21T16:11:48+08:001.1403703703703705
2026-09-21T16:11:52+08:001.1411111111111112
2026-09-21T16:11:54+08:001.1844444444444444
2026-09-21T16:11:57+08:001.1896296296296296
2026-09-21T16:12:00+08:001.1898148148148149
2026-09-21T16:12:04+08:001.8935185185185186
2026-09-21T16:13:44+08:002.07
2026-09-21T17:16:44+08:003.9305555555555554
2026-09-21T17:16:47+08:004.300925925925926
2026-09-21T17:17:08+08:004.309259259259259
2026-09-21T17:17:12+08:004.312037037037037
2026-09-21T17:17:16+08:004.3657407407407405
2026-09-21T17:17:20+08:004.671296296296297
2026-09-21T17:17:23+08:004.67
2026-09-21T18:00:38+08:005.147407407407408
2026-09-21T18:00:46+08:005.136481481481481
2026-09-21T18:05:03+08:005.150740740740741
2026-09-21T18:06:39+08:005.66462962962963
2026-09-21T18:07:09+08:005.6722222222222225
2026-09-21T18:07:44+08:005.758333333333334
2026-09-21T18:08:04+08:006.017407407407408
2026-09-21T18:08:13+08:006.020925925925926
2026-09-21T18:08:28+08:006.021111111111111
2026-09-21T18:08:41+08:006.48
2026-09-21T20:42:08+08:006.7935185185185185
2026-09-21T20:42:49+08:006.947777777777778
2026-09-21T20:44:32+08:006.955
2026-09-21T20:44:50+08:007.008333333333334
2026-09-21T20:45:17+08:007.037037037037037
2026-09-21T20:45:44+08:007.7407407407407405
2026-09-21T20:46:02+08:007.925925925925926
2026-09-21T21:13:36+08:007.937037037037037
2026-09-21T21:14:05+08:008.007407407407408
2026-09-21T21:14:30+08:008.02
2026-09-21T22:10:00+08:008.023888888888889
2026-09-21T22:10:23+08:008.107962962962963
2026-09-21T22:10:37+08:008.108148148148148
2026-09-21T22:10:46+08:008.41
2026-09-22T08:45:18+08:008.404444444444444
2026-09-22T08:45:46+08:008.528703703703703
2026-09-22T08:45:52+08:009.375925925925927
2026-09-22T08:45:55+08:009.374444444444444
2026-09-22T08:45:58+08:0010.874444444444444
2026-09-22T09:02:19+08:0011.283703703703704
2026-09-22T09:07:49+08:0011.34037037037037
2026-09-22T09:07:52+08:0011.350185185185186
2026-09-22T09:07:55+08:0011.458148148148148
2026-09-22T09:07:58+08:0011.532222222222222
2026-09-22T09:28:38+08:0011.61
2026-09-22T10:06:56+08:0011.715555555555556
2026-09-22T10:07:47+08:0011.962037037037037
2026-09-22T10:07:50+08:0012.103518518518518
2026-09-22T10:07:53+08:0012.877222222222223
2026-09-22T10:07:56+08:0012.895740740740742
2026-09-22T10:07:58+08:0012.924814814814814
2026-09-22T10:08:01+08:0013.011481481481482
2026-09-22T10:08:03+08:0013.83
2026-09-22T11:13:02+08:0014.101296296296296
2026-09-22T11:13:05+08:0014.189074074074075
2026-09-22T11:13:08+08:0014.301296296296297
2026-09-22T11:13:11+08:0014.368148148148148
2026-09-22T11:13:14+08:0014.389074074074074
2026-09-22T11:13:17+08:0014.404074074074074
2026-09-22T11:13:20+08:0015.22
2026-09-22T12:02:42+08:0015.496851851851853
2026-09-22T12:03:16+08:0015.497777777777777
2026-09-22T12:03:50+08:0015.512962962962963
2026-09-22T12:04:20+08:0015.761481481481482
2026-09-22T12:04:46+08:0015.783888888888889
2026-09-22T12:05:14+08:0015.874814814814815
2026-09-22T12:05:26+08:0017.6
2026-09-22T13:44:46+08:0017.618518518518517
2026-09-22T13:44:50+08:0017.68962962962963
2026-09-22T13:44:53+08:0017.806851851851853
2026-09-22T13:44:56+08:0017.845
2026-09-22T13:44:59+08:0017.955555555555556
2026-09-22T13:45:13+08:0017.957037037037036
2026-09-22T13:45:19+08:0018.42
2026-09-22T13:46:48+08:0018.61
2026-09-22T14:15:15+08:0018.724074074074075
2026-09-22T14:15:17+08:0019.001851851851853
2026-09-22T14:15:20+08:0019.02611111111111
2026-09-22T14:15:23+08:0019.17185185185185
2026-09-22T14:15:26+08:0019.169074074074075
2026-09-22T14:15:29+08:0019.235925925925926
2026-09-22T14:18:01+08:0019.23759259259259
2026-09-22T14:19:35+08:0019.89
2026-09-22T15:04:33+08:0019.976481481481482
2026-09-22T15:04:37+08:0020.029814814814817
2026-09-22T15:04:41+08:0019.98574074074074
2026-09-22T15:04:43+08:0020.10851851851852
2026-09-22T15:04:46+08:0020.156111111111112
2026-09-22T15:04:49+08:0020.17796296296296
2026-09-22T15:08:55+08:0021.52
2026-09-22T16:03:44+08:0021.65
2026-09-22T16:04:18+08:0021.65462962962963
2026-09-22T16:04:51+08:0021.651851851851852
2026-09-22T16:05:25+08:0021.75759259259259
2026-09-22T16:05:50+08:0021.75037037037037
2026-09-22T16:06:25+08:0021.779074074074074
2026-09-22T16:06:51+08:0022.99
2026-09-22T17:13:04+08:0022.947407407407407
2026-09-22T17:13:06+08:0023.26222222222222
2026-09-22T17:13:09+08:0023.26037037037037
2026-09-22T17:13:12+08:0023.283703703703704
2026-09-22T17:13:17+08:0023.29277777777778
2026-09-22T17:13:20+08:0023.328518518518518
2026-09-22T17:22:05+08:0023.57
2026-09-22T17:40:55+08:0024.68
2026-09-22T18:04:44+08:0024.613888888888887
2026-09-22T18:05:08+08:0024.847962962962963
2026-09-22T18:06:50+08:0025.175185185185185
2026-09-22T18:07:41+08:0025.199444444444445
2026-09-22T18:08:06+08:0025.046296296296298
2026-09-22T18:08:37+08:0025.305555555555557
2026-09-22T18:11:17+08:0025.46
2026-09-22T20:45:05+08:0025.89314814814815
2026-09-22T20:46:10+08:0025.902037037037037
2026-09-22T20:46:55+08:0025.915
2026-09-22T20:47:20+08:0025.91425925925926
2026-09-22T20:48:11+08:0026.306296296296296
2026-09-22T20:48:45+08:0027.09
2026-09-22T21:11:23+08:0027.035185185185185
2026-09-22T21:11:49+08:0027.01888888888889
2026-09-22T21:12:15+08:0027.050925925925927
2026-09-22T21:12:52+08:0027.39
2026-09-22T22:10:24+08:0027.391111111111112
2026-09-22T22:10:51+08:0027.407037037037036
2026-09-22T22:11:10+08:0027.432777777777776
2026-09-22T22:11:23+08:0028.31
2026-09-23T08:39:14+08:0028.447222222222223
2026-09-23T08:39:23+08:0029.10185185185185
2026-09-23T08:39:46+08:0029.10185185185185
2026-09-23T08:42:21+08:0029.076296296296295
2026-09-23T08:42:24+08:0029.080185185185186
2026-09-23T08:42:27+08:0030.22574074074074
2026-09-23T08:42:29+08:0030.313333333333333
2026-09-23T08:42:32+08:0031.183703703703703
2026-09-23T09:06:10+08:0031.940555555555555
2026-09-23T09:08:23+08:0032.02407407407407
2026-09-23T09:08:26+08:0032.19425925925926
2026-09-23T09:08:30+08:0032.82111111111111
2026-09-23T09:08:32+08:0032.882592592592594
2026-09-23T09:08:35+08:0033.40111111111111
2026-09-23T09:10:59+08:0033.92
2026-09-23T10:14:42+08:0034.08314814814815
2026-09-23T10:14:44+08:0034.16481481481482
2026-09-23T10:14:47+08:0035.12148148148148
2026-09-23T10:14:49+08:0035.28685185185185
2026-09-23T10:14:52+08:0035.287592592592596
2026-09-23T10:14:55+08:0037.93
2026-09-23T11:01:33+08:0037.69314814814815
2026-09-23T11:02:07+08:0037.72203703703704
2026-09-23T11:06:42+08:0037.977222222222224
2026-09-23T11:06:45+08:0038.255185185185184
2026-09-23T11:06:52+08:0038.2962962962963
2026-09-23T11:06:54+08:0040.01
2026-09-23T12:22:44+08:0039.84074074074074
2026-09-23T12:26:45+08:0039.894444444444446
2026-09-23T12:26:52+08:0040.727777777777774
2026-09-23T12:26:55+08:0040.72851851851852
2026-09-23T12:27:00+08:0041.34851851851852
2026-09-23T12:27:03+08:0042.074444444444445
2026-09-23T12:27:06+08:0042.15796296296296
2026-09-23T13:48:58+08:0042.10592592592592
2026-09-23T13:49:01+08:0042.193333333333335
2026-09-23T13:49:04+08:0042.491851851851855
2026-09-23T13:49:07+08:0042.51814814814815
2026-09-23T13:49:11+08:0042.52185185185185
2026-09-23T13:49:15+08:0042.91074074074074
2026-09-23T14:00:28+08:0042.95537037037037
2026-09-23T14:02:16+08:0043.25092592592593
2026-09-23T14:03:41+08:0043.32666666666667
2026-09-23T14:04:59+08:0043.663148148148146
2026-09-23T14:05:02+08:0043.73481481481482
2026-09-23T14:05:05+08:0043.736296296296295
2026-09-23T14:05:12+08:0044.58814814814815
2026-09-23T15:25:55+08:0044.66740740740741
2026-09-23T15:25:58+08:0044.764074074074074
2026-09-23T15:26:03+08:0044.985
2026-09-23T15:26:06+08:0045.33833333333333
2026-09-23T15:26:09+08:0045.3387037037037
2026-09-23T15:26:12+08:0047.468333333333334
2026-09-23T16:07:03+08:0047.72759259259259
2026-09-23T16:09:19+08:0047.7712962962963
2026-09-23T16:10:03+08:0047.81981481481481
2026-09-23T16:10:06+08:0047.892037037037035
2026-09-23T16:10:09+08:0047.59351851851852
2026-09-23T16:10:11+08:0047.668703703703706
2026-09-23T16:10:14+08:0049.39092592592593
2026-09-23T16:43:49+08:0049.757592592592594
2026-09-23T17:20:45+08:0051.9062962962963
2026-09-23T17:20:47+08:0052.02759259259259
2026-09-23T17:20:50+08:0052.35166666666667
2026-09-23T17:20:53+08:0052.36944444444445
2026-09-23T17:20:56+08:0052.39370370370371
2026-09-23T17:20:59+08:0053.81962962962963
2026-09-23T17:37:29+08:0061.967777777777776
2026-09-23T17:38:12+08:0062.13444444444445
2026-09-23T18:01:37+08:0062.30481481481481
2026-09-23T18:02:23+08:0062.35351851851852
2026-09-23T18:04:58+08:0063.26259259259259
2026-09-23T18:06:17+08:0063.516851851851854
2026-09-23T18:06:51+08:0063.702962962962964
2026-09-23T18:07:25+08:0064.51981481481481
2026-09-23T18:07:51+08:0065.85314814814815
2026-09-23T20:44:55+08:0066.01777777777778
2026-09-23T20:45:55+08:0066.29296296296296
2026-09-23T20:46:27+08:0066.51203703703703
2026-09-23T20:47:08+08:0066.86666666666666
2026-09-23T20:47:52+08:0067.37351851851852
2026-09-23T20:48:45+08:0070.02166666666666
2026-09-23T21:10:56+08:0070.04685185185186
2026-09-23T21:11:38+08:0070.44592592592592
2026-09-23T21:12:07+08:0070.51537037037038
2026-09-23T21:12:27+08:0070.59907407407407
2026-09-23T21:12:46+08:0071.525
2026-09-23T22:04:43+08:0072.06462962962964
2026-09-23T22:05:12+08:0072.15296296296296
2026-09-23T22:05:29+08:0072.16074074074074
2026-09-23T22:05:46+08:0072.92
2026-09-24T08:29:37+08:0072.92
2026-09-24T08:33:01+08:0073.52203703703704
2026-09-24T08:33:04+08:0073.4962962962963
2026-09-24T08:33:13+08:0075.5437037037037
2026-09-24T08:33:16+08:0075.77481481481482
2026-09-24T08:33:19+08:0086.01555555555555
2026-09-24T09:00:59+08:0086.57111111111111
2026-09-24T09:02:10+08:0087.03555555555556
2026-09-24T09:04:35+08:0089.48925925925926
2026-09-24T09:05:50+08:0089.59685185185185
2026-09-24T09:06:41+08:0089.91222222222223
2026-09-24T09:07:15+08:0091.3125925925926
2026-09-24T09:07:44+08:0096.94222222222223
2026-09-24T09:51:38+08:0097.1274074074074
2026-09-24T10:08:43+08:0097.67407407407407
2026-09-24T10:08:46+08:00101.01685185185185
2026-09-24T10:08:48+08:00113.88
2026-09-24T11:06:18+08:00114.22
2026-09-24T11:19:01+08:00149.41
2026-09-24T17:40:59+08:00149.66
TradeGo forecast multiple
TimeMultiple
2026-09-21T06:00:00+08:000
2026-09-21T10:16:02+08:000.23
2026-09-21T11:05:54+08:000.49
2026-09-21T11:44:44+08:000.53
2026-09-21T12:17:24+08:000.91
2026-09-21T13:50:12+08:001.56
2026-09-21T14:14:07+08:002.0
2026-09-21T15:09:02+08:001.89
2026-09-21T16:13:44+08:003.49
2026-09-21T17:17:23+08:007.85
2026-09-21T18:08:41+08:009.4
2026-09-21T21:14:30+08:0011.62
2026-09-21T22:10:46+08:0012.19
2026-09-22T09:28:38+08:0016.83
2026-09-22T10:08:03+08:0020.05
2026-09-22T11:13:20+08:0022.07
2026-09-22T12:05:26+08:0025.52
2026-09-22T13:46:48+08:0026.98
2026-09-22T14:19:35+08:0028.85
2026-09-22T15:08:55+08:0031.21
2026-09-22T16:06:51+08:0033.34
2026-09-22T17:22:05+08:0034.18
2026-09-22T17:40:55+08:0035.79
2026-09-22T18:11:17+08:0036.92
2026-09-22T20:48:45+08:0039.28
2026-09-22T21:12:52+08:0039.72
2026-09-22T22:11:23+08:0041.05
2026-09-23T09:10:59+08:0047.83
2026-09-23T10:14:55+08:0053.48
2026-09-23T11:06:54+08:0056.41
2026-09-24T10:08:48+08:00160.57
2026-09-24T11:06:18+08:00161.06
2026-09-24T11:19:01+08:00210.67
2026-09-24T17:40:59+08:00211.02
Broker margin funds trend
TimeBrokerMargin funds
2026-09-21T06:00:00+08:00富途证券0
2026-09-21T11:05:54+08:00富途证券3000000.0
2026-09-21T12:17:24+08:00富途证券7000000.0
2026-09-21T13:49:32+08:00富途证券15000000.0
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2026-09-22T10:08:03+08:00盈宝证券1830000.0
2026-09-22T11:13:20+08:00盈宝证券1830000.0
2026-09-22T12:05:26+08:00盈宝证券1830000.0
2026-09-22T13:46:48+08:00盈宝证券1830000.0
2026-09-22T14:19:35+08:00盈宝证券1830000.0
2026-09-22T15:08:55+08:00盈宝证券4200000.0
2026-09-22T16:06:51+08:00盈宝证券4200000.0
2026-09-22T17:22:05+08:00盈宝证券4200000.0
2026-09-22T17:40:55+08:00盈宝证券4200000.0
2026-09-22T18:11:17+08:00盈宝证券4200000.0
2026-09-22T21:12:52+08:00盈宝证券4200000.0
2026-09-22T22:11:23+08:00盈宝证券4200000.0
2026-09-23T09:10:59+08:00盈宝证券4230000.0
2026-09-23T10:14:55+08:00盈宝证券4230000.0
2026-09-23T11:06:54+08:00盈宝证券4470000.0
2026-09-24T10:08:48+08:00盈宝证券4470000.0
2026-09-24T11:06:18+08:00盈宝证券4470000.0
2026-09-24T11:19:01+08:00盈宝证券4470000.0
2026-09-24T17:40:59+08:00盈宝证券4470000.0
2026-09-21T06:00:00+08:00兴证国际0
2026-09-22T15:08:55+08:00兴证国际120000.0
2026-09-22T16:06:51+08:00兴证国际120000.0
2026-09-22T17:22:05+08:00兴证国际120000.0
2026-09-22T17:40:55+08:00兴证国际120000.0
2026-09-22T18:11:17+08:00兴证国际120000.0
2026-09-22T21:12:52+08:00兴证国际120000.0
2026-09-22T22:11:23+08:00兴证国际120000.0
2026-09-23T09:10:59+08:00兴证国际120000.0
2026-09-23T10:14:55+08:00兴证国际240000.0
2026-09-23T11:06:54+08:00兴证国际240000.0
2026-09-24T10:08:48+08:00兴证国际240000.0
2026-09-24T11:06:18+08:00兴证国际240000.0
2026-09-24T11:19:01+08:00兴证国际240000.0
2026-09-24T17:40:59+08:00兴证国际240000.0
Pool A α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.47
Pool B α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.57
This model does not support allocation strategy adjustment

Actual vs Predicted Comparison

Using the actual oversubscription ratio 208.56x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.467, Pool B α=0.567) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier

Lots Subscription Amount (HKD) Actual Expected Lots Predicted Expected Lots Error

LogoDIRECT DRIVE Allotment Prediction Matrix

Rows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates guaranteed allotment (≥1 lot)

Pool A

Oversubscription
211.0x
Allocation Strategy
α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.47

Pool B

Oversubscription
211.0x
Allocation Strategy
α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.57
Offering Mechanism

18C

HKEX Listing Rule Chapter 18C for specialist technology companies. Mechanisms A and B do not apply. Initial allocation 5%, with clawback: 10x to below 50x → 10%, 50x or above → 20%. At least 50% of total offering shares must be taken up by independent pricing investors in the placing tranche.

Allocation Strategy Coefficient α

α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].

  • α → 0: Per-capita allocation — regardless of lots subscribed, every allottee receives the same number of shares. More favorable to retail (small) applications.
  • α → 1: Proportional allocation — allotted shares are proportional to lots subscribed. More favorable to large applications.
  • Historical actual α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0. α varies widely across IPOs, reflecting each issuer's allocation strategy.
Allotment Rate Definition

The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").

Expected Allotment Lots

Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier

Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.

// About this page //

This page shows expected-lot forecasts for DIRECT DRIVE (06731): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 10,897 allotment-tier records across 356 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation).
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.

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Cibo — HK IPO Allotment Forecasts, Allottee Profiling & Stock Connect