Befar Group 06745Expected Lots

Befar Group (06745) Expected Lots
Offering Mechanism: Mechanism B | Min Subscription: HK$3,480  |  Public Offering Lots: Pool A 17,606lots / Pool B 17,607lots  |  Offer Price: HK$3.48  |  Lot Size: 1000shares  |  Public Offering Size: HK$122.5M
1x8160.0x
Recent first-day return
+4.6%
→
Participants
12,901
→
Avg lots
46.4
→
Oversubscription
17x
17x = 12,901 × 46.4 ÷ 35,213 A+H secondary · participants ×0.44 H-share discount 39.3% margin-weighted 100% → 162.0x
Margin dynamics · 2026-07-07 12:06 Margin multiple120.89x Margin funds152.8100M TradeGo forecast multiple161.99x
Rank Broker Margin funds
1 富途证券富途 85.9100M
2 辉立证券辉立 35.0100M
3 老虎国际老虎 14.3100M
4 华泰国际华泰 6.4100M
5 致富证券致富 2.7100M
6 复星国际复星 2.7100M
7 盈立证券盈立 1.7100M
8 华盛证券华盛 1.3100M
9 熊猫证券熊猫 1.3100M
Margin multiple
TimeMultiple
2026-06-30T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-30T11:21:45+08:000.00031643066213116053
2026-06-30T11:21:53+08:000.0013448303140574322
2026-06-30T11:22:06+08:000.009255596867336445
2026-06-30T12:14:38+08:000.009492919863934815
2026-06-30T12:19:23+08:000.02033067004192706
2026-06-30T12:21:18+08:000.020647100704058223
2026-06-30T12:23:18+08:000.03275057353057511
2026-06-30T12:26:45+08:000.0881259394035282
2026-06-30T14:02:26+08:000.08852147773119215
2026-06-30T14:02:29+08:000.08915433905545447
2026-06-30T14:06:39+08:000.08820504706906099
2026-06-30T14:06:42+08:000.08860058539672494
2026-06-30T14:13:50+08:000.09477098330828257
2026-06-30T14:13:53+08:000.09975476623684836
2026-06-30T14:18:44+08:000.10766553279012736
2026-06-30T14:24:37+08:000.10924768610078317
2026-06-30T14:31:34+08:000.11154180840123408
2026-06-30T15:03:27+08:000.11209556205996361
2026-06-30T15:05:36+08:000.11644648366426706
2026-06-30T15:16:45+08:000.11684202199193101
2026-06-30T16:29:20+08:000.11897792896131636
2026-06-30T16:33:11+08:000.11905703662684915
2026-06-30T17:07:07+08:000.11992722094770983
2026-06-30T17:11:03+08:000.12040186694090657
2026-06-30T17:14:22+08:000.12071829760303773
2026-06-30T18:07:41+08:000.1210347282651689
2026-06-30T18:12:56+08:000.12119294359623448
2026-06-30T18:16:46+08:000.11106716240803734
2026-06-30T18:21:29+08:000.1122537773910292
2026-06-30T18:26:31+08:001.3779764259156713
2026-06-30T20:09:13+08:001.378055533581204
2026-06-30T20:12:47+08:001.3783719642433352
2026-06-30T20:17:36+08:001.3785301795744007
2026-06-30T22:06:13+08:001.3786883949054662
2026-07-01T08:42:55+08:001.3798750098884582
2026-07-01T08:42:57+08:001.4149197057194842
2026-07-01T08:46:13+08:001.4153152440471481
2026-07-01T09:02:54+08:001.4153152440471481
2026-07-01T09:05:25+08:001.4221185032829682
2026-07-01T09:07:47+08:001.422514041610632
2026-07-01T09:10:31+08:001.4227513646072305
2026-07-01T09:12:22+08:001.422988687603829
2026-07-01T09:18:23+08:001.4238588719246894
2026-07-01T09:25:20+08:001.4243335179178862
2026-07-01T10:18:28+08:001.4246499485800175
2026-07-01T10:22:27+08:001.424808163911083
2026-07-01T10:28:03+08:001.4248872715766159
2026-07-01T11:09:17+08:001.425124594573214
2026-07-01T12:14:06+08:001.4254410252353453
2026-07-01T12:16:33+08:001.4264694248872716
2026-07-01T12:18:20+08:001.4267858555494026
2026-07-01T12:19:31+08:001.4268649632149355
2026-07-01T14:11:30+08:001.427023178546001
2026-07-01T14:15:04+08:001.4277351475357962
2026-07-01T14:15:07+08:001.4306621311605094
2026-07-01T14:18:42+08:001.4860374970334624
2026-07-01T14:18:45+08:001.4939482635867416
2026-07-01T14:23:35+08:001.4940273712522742
2026-07-01T14:26:03+08:001.4942646942488726
2026-07-01T14:32:09+08:001.4968752472114548
2026-07-01T15:09:56+08:001.4969543548769875
2026-07-01T15:13:14+08:001.4978245391978482
2026-07-01T15:15:36+08:001.4980618621944466
2026-07-01T16:14:44+08:001.4981409698599795
2026-07-01T17:03:41+08:001.498299185191045
2026-07-01T17:06:10+08:001.4987738311842418
2026-07-01T17:08:09+08:001.4986156158531763
2026-07-01T18:02:55+08:001.4989320465153073
2026-07-01T18:04:27+08:001.4990111541808402
2026-07-01T18:10:14+08:001.5069219207341191
2026-07-01T18:21:00+08:001.5081876433826438
2026-07-01T20:58:47+08:001.508504074044775
2026-07-01T21:00:21+08:001.5157819792737917
2026-07-01T21:02:14+08:001.5236927458270706
2026-07-01T22:10:32+08:001.5238509611581361
2026-07-02T08:44:18+08:001.5251957914721936
2026-07-02T08:44:20+08:001.525828652796456
2026-07-02T08:47:53+08:001.5319199430424808
2026-07-02T08:47:55+08:001.531840835376948
2026-07-02T08:52:00+08:001.539751601930227
2026-07-02T08:58:43+08:001.539751601930227
2026-07-02T09:13:21+08:001.549244521794162
2026-07-02T09:20:55+08:001.5481370144767028
2026-07-02T09:26:41+08:001.5494027371252275
2026-07-02T09:29:59+08:001.5508266751048176
2026-07-02T09:33:03+08:001.5033620757851436
2026-07-02T09:52:44+08:001.5141998259631357
2026-07-02T10:14:40+08:001.5139625029665376
2026-07-02T10:17:17+08:001.5137251799699392
2026-07-02T10:19:05+08:001.5145953642907999
2026-07-02T10:21:55+08:001.5142789336286686
2026-07-02T10:25:35+08:001.5854758326081797
2026-07-02T11:13:52+08:001.5929910608337947
2026-07-02T11:15:10+08:001.6167233604936317
2026-07-02T11:16:52+08:001.634364369907444
2026-07-02T11:18:46+08:001.6395854758326083
2026-07-02T12:11:54+08:001.6398227988292065
2026-07-02T12:16:41+08:001.6406138754845345
2026-07-02T12:19:04+08:001.6414049521398624
2026-07-02T12:21:55+08:001.6493157186931413
2026-07-02T14:07:51+08:001.6468633810616249
2026-07-02T14:07:54+08:001.6365793845423622
2026-07-02T14:12:28+08:001.6372122458666245
2026-07-02T14:12:30+08:001.6473380270548217
2026-07-02T14:17:27+08:001.6474962423858872
2026-07-02T14:17:41+08:001.6565145162566253
2026-07-02T14:25:32+08:001.7593544814492523
2026-07-02T14:25:36+08:001.7648129103710148
2026-07-02T14:37:43+08:002.2396962265643543
2026-07-02T15:01:28+08:002.245629301479313
2026-07-02T15:03:22+08:002.2411201645439442
2026-07-02T15:06:26+08:002.2440471481686575
2026-07-02T15:09:45+08:002.2441262558341903
2026-07-02T15:11:43+08:002.2696780318012815
2026-07-02T15:13:16+08:002.2617672652480025
2026-07-02T16:05:07+08:002.2620045882446007
2026-07-02T16:07:20+08:002.2624001265722646
2026-07-02T16:10:45+08:002.283126334941856
2026-07-02T16:14:18+08:002.2839965192627165
2026-07-02T17:04:17+08:002.2841547345937823
2026-07-02T17:06:30+08:002.2848667035835772
2026-07-02T17:08:32+08:002.2877145795427576
2026-07-02T17:10:16+08:002.287951902539356
2026-07-02T17:11:42+08:002.2832845502729215
2026-07-02T17:13:54+08:002.3307491495925956
2026-07-02T18:13:35+08:001.8765129341033147
2026-07-02T18:18:00+08:001.8766711494343802
2026-07-02T18:21:56+08:001.8776204414207738
2026-07-02T18:22:05+08:001.8777786567518393
2026-07-02T18:26:41+08:002.58974764654695
2026-07-02T20:42:13+08:002.589905861878016
2026-07-02T20:43:56+08:002.5912506921920735
2026-07-02T20:50:13+08:002.673839095008306
2026-07-02T20:52:12+08:002.7054821612214224
2026-07-02T21:49:37+08:002.7055612688869553
2026-07-02T22:08:16+08:002.7054821612214224
2026-07-02T22:10:21+08:002.7031880389209713
2026-07-02T22:12:20+08:002.6952772723676923
2026-07-03T08:38:31+08:002.7103077288189223
2026-07-03T08:38:33+08:002.6910054584289216
2026-07-03T08:44:05+08:002.6910845660944545
2026-07-03T08:45:58+08:002.6910845660944545
2026-07-03T08:48:23+08:002.6752630329878966
2026-07-03T09:02:34+08:002.688632228462938
2026-07-03T09:06:46+08:002.6914009967565855
2026-07-03T09:09:46+08:002.6911636737599873
2026-07-03T09:12:41+08:002.7076180681908077
2026-07-03T09:20:22+08:002.719167787358595
2026-07-03T10:16:18+08:002.718060280041136
2026-07-03T10:17:47+08:002.721145478996915
2026-07-03T10:20:24+08:002.729056245550194
2026-07-03T10:27:20+08:002.729293568546792
2026-07-03T10:29:53+08:002.7212245866624474
2026-07-03T11:12:36+08:002.7220156633177757
2026-07-03T11:14:18+08:002.765841310022941
2026-07-03T11:16:26+08:002.813305909342615
2026-07-03T11:18:10+08:002.81117000237323
2026-07-03T11:19:08+08:002.8128312633494184
2026-07-03T12:28:50+08:002.8144134166600745
2026-07-03T12:29:45+08:002.8148089549877384
2026-07-03T12:30:09+08:002.814096985997943
2026-07-03T12:33:07+08:002.813701447670279
2026-07-03T12:34:44+08:002.812673048018353
2026-07-03T13:40:42+08:002.812752155683886
2026-07-03T13:41:49+08:002.8140178783324106
2026-07-03T13:43:42+08:002.8456609445455263
2026-07-03T13:46:03+08:002.8302349497666324
2026-07-03T14:01:14+08:002.8338739023811406
2026-07-03T14:04:41+08:002.8377501779922474
2026-07-03T14:07:48+08:002.838620362313108
2026-07-03T14:10:55+08:002.854441895419666
2026-07-03T14:12:58+08:002.854521003085199
2026-07-03T15:20:07+08:002.8660707222529864
2026-07-03T15:21:08+08:002.8686812752155686
2026-07-03T15:21:57+08:002.860770508662289
2026-07-03T15:25:04+08:002.861245154655486
2026-07-03T16:04:48+08:002.8621153389763467
2026-07-03T16:05:48+08:002.8621944466418796
2026-07-03T16:06:48+08:002.8780159797484375
2026-07-03T16:07:50+08:002.8799145637212247
2026-07-03T16:09:04+08:002.8808638557076183
2026-07-03T17:09:34+08:002.8836326240012657
2026-07-03T17:12:02+08:002.8837117316667986
2026-07-03T17:12:37+08:002.885056561980856
2026-07-03T17:13:28+08:002.8870342536191758
2026-07-03T17:15:39+08:002.9028557867257336
2026-07-03T18:34:42+08:002.908788861640693
2026-07-03T18:36:51+08:002.9131397832449966
2026-07-03T18:39:31+08:002.9143263982279883
2026-07-03T18:40:56+08:002.9157503362075787
2026-07-03T18:41:47+08:002.915908551538644
2026-07-03T18:51:19+08:002.918993750494423
2026-07-03T21:05:44+08:002.919784827149751
2026-07-03T21:06:35+08:002.9258761173957755
2026-07-03T21:08:44+08:002.9280911320306937
2026-07-03T21:10:28+08:002.930385254331145
2026-07-03T21:12:56+08:002.930701684993276
2026-07-04T09:34:33+08:002.930701684993276
2026-07-04T09:36:26+08:002.931334546317538
2026-07-04T09:37:17+08:002.957440075943359
2026-07-04T09:38:44+08:002.9582311525986866
2026-07-04T09:39:51+08:002.961949212878728
2026-07-04T09:41:47+08:002.974685547029507
2026-07-04T09:43:04+08:003.077525512222134
2026-07-04T10:27:16+08:003.0776837275532
2026-07-04T10:30:07+08:003.0777628352187327
2026-07-04T10:30:25+08:003.0782374812119295
2026-07-04T12:02:39+08:003.0783165888774624
2026-07-04T12:10:44+08:003.0786330195395935
2026-07-04T12:12:18+08:003.0933470453286924
2026-07-04T15:36:58+08:003.092239538011233
2026-07-04T15:39:54+08:003.083616802468159
2026-07-04T15:40:06+08:003.0845660944545528
2026-07-04T15:42:26+08:003.1082983941143896
2026-07-04T15:42:54+08:003.1003876275611106
2026-07-04T18:35:39+08:003.1006249505577093
2026-07-04T18:36:23+08:003.101020488885373
2026-07-04T18:38:34+08:003.1014951348785695
2026-07-04T18:40:52+08:003.1331382010916857
2026-07-04T20:04:21+08:003.1332964164227515
2026-07-04T20:06:52+08:003.1338501700814807
2026-07-04T20:09:07+08:003.157582469741318
2026-07-05T09:35:02+08:003.1633573293252115
2026-07-05T09:36:01+08:003.163911082983941
2026-07-05T09:36:06+08:003.1743532948342694
2026-07-05T09:41:48+08:003.18004904675263
2026-07-05T09:44:58+08:003.183529784036073
2026-07-05T09:48:08+08:003.159797484376236
2026-07-05T09:53:24+08:003.1600348073728344
2026-07-05T09:53:58+08:003.1603512380349654
2026-07-05T12:18:53+08:003.1761727711415237
2026-07-05T12:23:32+08:003.176330986472589
2026-07-05T12:24:11+08:003.176489201803655
2026-07-05T12:27:22+08:003.1775967091211137
2026-07-05T12:31:38+08:003.1778340321177123
2026-07-05T12:35:10+08:003.1782295704453762
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2026-07-05T12:38:42+08:003.1787833241041055
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2026-07-05T12:41:45+08:003.17917886243177
2026-07-05T14:50:10+08:003.1813147694011548
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2026-07-05T17:16:44+08:003.2025947314294756
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2026-07-05T17:24:18+08:003.205759038050787
2026-07-05T17:26:49+08:003.197848271497508
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TradeGo forecast multiple
TimeMultiple
Broker margin funds trend
TimeBrokerMargin funds
Pool A α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.54
Pool B α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.64
This model does not support allocation strategy adjustment

Actual vs Predicted Comparison

Using the actual oversubscription ratio 227.58x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.542, Pool B α=0.642) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier

Lots Subscription Amount (HKD) Actual Expected Lots Predicted Expected Lots Error

LogoBefar Group Allotment Prediction Matrix

Rows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates guaranteed allotment (≥1 lot)

Pool A

Oversubscription
162.0x
Allocation Strategy
α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.54

Pool B

Oversubscription
162.0x
Allocation Strategy
α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.64
Offering Mechanism

Mechanism B

Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).

Allocation Strategy Coefficient α

α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].

  • α → 0: Per-capita allocation — regardless of lots subscribed, every allottee receives the same number of shares. More favorable to retail (small) applications.
  • α → 1: Proportional allocation — allotted shares are proportional to lots subscribed. More favorable to large applications.
  • Historical actual α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0. α varies widely across IPOs, reflecting each issuer's allocation strategy.
Allotment Rate Definition

The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").

Expected Allotment Lots

Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier

Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.

// About this page //

This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Befar Group (06745): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 10,897 allotment-tier records across 356 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation).
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.

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