Margin dynamics Margin multiple280.79x Margin funds1655.0100M TradeGo forecast multiple376.27x
Rank Broker Margin funds
1 富途证券富途 876.7100M
2 辉立证券辉立 455.0100M
3 老虎国际老虎 123.9100M
4 华泰国际华泰 82.7100M
5 致富证券致富 27.7100M
6 复星国际复星 18.9100M
7 盈立证券盈立 18.1100M
8 华盛证券华盛 17.9100M
9 熊猫证券熊猫 11.7100M
Margin multiple
TimeMultiple
2026-06-29T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-29T10:10:44+08:000.018358274797244563
2026-06-29T10:10:55+08:000.03680138450575181
2026-06-29T10:11:02+08:000.042994333027927656
2026-06-29T11:01:34+08:000.04945875326614409
2026-06-29T11:04:40+08:000.30591469001323424
2026-06-29T11:05:48+08:000.35501713665207507
2026-06-29T11:07:27+08:001.4426006990396687
2026-06-29T11:41:44+08:001.451084190165937
2026-06-29T12:15:02+08:001.458702365197326
2026-06-29T12:15:53+08:001.5228884590586718
2026-06-29T12:16:35+08:001.5522243713733075
2026-06-29T12:17:55+08:001.5553802300722794
2026-06-29T12:18:32+08:001.561946452204011
2026-06-29T12:19:13+08:002.059079032203332
2026-06-29T12:19:48+08:002.076046014455869
2026-06-29T13:41:24+08:002.078014184397163
2026-06-29T13:42:51+08:002.133564084291968
2026-06-29T13:43:30+08:002.1365502731684143
2026-06-29T13:44:09+08:002.161389935186128
2026-06-29T13:44:55+08:002.190081102175167
2026-06-29T13:45:34+08:003.1266585225151853
2026-06-29T13:46:08+08:003.1605924870202586
2026-06-29T14:01:52+08:003.1644100580270793
2026-06-29T14:05:07+08:003.180749261936272
2026-06-29T14:05:43+08:003.2213851844310972
2026-06-29T14:07:16+08:003.2894567172282736
2026-06-29T14:07:48+08:003.2921375004241744
2026-06-29T14:08:26+08:003.8316875360548375
2026-06-29T14:10:12+08:003.9164036784417524
2026-06-29T15:00:29+08:003.9204927211646137
2026-06-29T15:01:42+08:003.938935830873121
2026-06-29T15:04:28+08:003.9760765550239237
2026-06-29T15:05:52+08:004.055668668770572
2026-06-29T15:06:22+08:004.059384437883878
2026-06-29T15:07:09+08:004.941667515015779
2026-06-29T16:01:33+08:005.322236926940175
2026-06-29T16:02:13+08:005.373137873697784
2026-06-29T16:03:20+08:005.403322135125046
2026-06-29T16:04:44+08:005.4690352573891206
2026-06-29T16:09:20+08:005.507855712782924
2026-06-29T16:12:02+08:006.169568020631851
2026-06-29T16:12:31+08:006.188265635074146
2026-06-29T17:08:04+08:006.2204180664427025
2026-06-29T17:08:55+08:006.331059757711493
2026-06-29T17:10:12+08:006.921934914656079
2026-06-29T17:10:44+08:006.927211646136618
2026-06-29T17:11:29+08:006.94414469442465
2026-06-29T17:12:26+08:007.951983440225321
2026-06-29T17:59:54+08:008.036818351488005
2026-06-29T18:00:43+08:009.020903322135124
2026-06-29T18:02:54+08:009.056211612202654
2026-06-29T18:04:28+08:009.091384166412162
2026-06-29T18:05:21+08:009.114747700973904
2026-06-29T18:06:27+08:009.125046659201194
2026-06-29T18:08:09+08:009.150938274118566
2026-06-29T18:08:40+08:009.571719433981473
2026-06-29T18:09:32+08:009.787318877464454
2026-06-29T20:27:48+08:009.811191421493772
2026-06-29T20:29:08+08:009.854219688486205
2026-06-29T20:29:53+08:009.872968203875258
2026-06-29T20:30:50+08:009.913621093352337
2026-06-29T20:37:47+08:0010.017102718110557
2026-06-29T20:41:50+08:0010.955376836675828
2026-06-29T21:09:31+08:0010.964335403305169
2026-06-29T22:06:58+08:0010.991499541891478
2026-06-29T22:08:01+08:0011.054260409243613
2026-06-29T22:09:04+08:0011.07445111812413
2026-06-29T22:10:10+08:0011.944857307679257
2026-06-30T09:05:47+08:0011.953900709219859
2026-06-30T09:05:50+08:0011.970138111235535
2026-06-30T09:05:54+08:0011.972598323662153
2026-06-30T09:08:34+08:0012.28160100444535
2026-06-30T09:10:18+08:0012.32622416776952
2026-06-30T09:10:22+08:0012.656282873528115
2026-06-30T09:10:25+08:0012.681970884658455
2026-06-30T09:14:13+08:0014.409209677966677
2026-06-30T09:14:19+08:0014.441107604601445
2026-06-30T09:14:22+08:0014.878855746716889
2026-06-30T09:16:07+08:0014.97344667277478
2026-06-30T09:17:52+08:0014.97344667277478
2026-06-30T10:21:38+08:0015.092215548542537
2026-06-30T10:21:44+08:0015.120940649496081
2026-06-30T10:21:59+08:0015.12862669245648
2026-06-30T10:22:11+08:0015.147544877668057
2026-06-30T10:22:17+08:0015.17752553530829
2026-06-30T10:22:29+08:0015.175964572941057
2026-06-30T10:22:35+08:0015.713817910346465
2026-06-30T11:11:42+08:0015.741015982897283
2026-06-30T11:11:54+08:0015.755896026332756
2026-06-30T11:12:06+08:0015.81999728528284
2026-06-30T11:12:20+08:0015.832756455936748
2026-06-30T11:12:32+08:0015.84147748481455
2026-06-30T11:12:39+08:0015.948369473005531
2026-06-30T12:14:03+08:0015.974770097390477
2026-06-30T12:18:48+08:0016.03035393124979
2026-06-30T12:19:49+08:0016.03887135634056
2026-06-30T12:21:37+08:0016.049526621195156
2026-06-30T12:24:02+08:0016.064457565577385
2026-06-30T12:27:04+08:0016.286725033085617
2026-06-30T14:02:59+08:0016.2782585089416
2026-06-30T14:03:02+08:0016.28087142420849
2026-06-30T14:08:38+08:0016.28748854728698
2026-06-30T14:08:40+08:0016.311157487529268
2026-06-30T14:13:04+08:0016.341528385761308
2026-06-30T14:13:07+08:0016.340781838542195
2026-06-30T14:15:33+08:0016.337422376056196
2026-06-30T14:15:49+08:0016.342868777359257
2026-06-30T14:17:08+08:0016.361159184227493
2026-06-30T14:17:10+08:0016.36041263700838
2026-06-30T14:20:30+08:0016.794767382673317
2026-06-30T14:20:33+08:0017.230818826563507
2026-06-30T14:24:21+08:0017.26475279106858
2026-06-30T14:27:10+08:0018.139163188435305
2026-06-30T15:03:59+08:0018.172113067969732
2026-06-30T15:06:12+08:0018.228986392480234
2026-06-30T15:07:15+08:0018.231938647392173
2026-06-30T15:08:45+08:0018.25050052597645
2026-06-30T15:10:35+08:0018.503308561539246
2026-06-30T15:17:08+08:0018.51491397739998
2026-06-30T16:28:39+08:0018.75973056432183
2026-06-30T16:32:37+08:0018.51878244935356
2026-06-30T16:35:21+08:0018.524788761070955
2026-06-30T16:37:18+08:0018.628660626420984
2026-06-30T16:40:14+08:0018.644914995418915
2026-06-30T16:41:24+08:0018.631341409616887
2026-06-30T17:06:32+08:0018.660830024771794
2026-06-30T17:08:49+08:0018.858631103871865
2026-06-30T17:11:39+08:0018.94796226543147
2026-06-30T17:13:06+08:0018.96587939869015
2026-06-30T17:14:30+08:0019.041653941429978
2026-06-30T17:17:32+08:0019.577810580610134
2026-06-30T17:49:03+08:0021.308442770368863
2026-06-30T18:01:45+08:0021.389273473819948
2026-06-30T18:11:49+08:0021.426261495130476
2026-06-30T18:16:58+08:0021.432488377617158
2026-06-30T18:19:46+08:0021.445196647324305
2026-06-30T18:20:31+08:0021.43298042010248
2026-06-30T18:24:08+08:0021.452679086497675
2026-06-30T18:25:32+08:0021.776748447521125
2026-06-30T18:27:01+08:0021.917574400217177
2026-06-30T20:08:15+08:0021.929451287793952
2026-06-30T20:11:09+08:0021.95403644507788
2026-06-30T20:13:50+08:0021.96514981845329
2026-06-30T20:14:42+08:0022.007448505208863
2026-06-30T20:16:43+08:0022.0936238080695
2026-06-30T20:19:03+08:0022.463504021174796
2026-06-30T22:00:02+08:0022.468136007329736
2026-06-30T22:05:02+08:0022.48293121585395
2026-06-30T22:06:31+08:0022.519766534324205
2026-06-30T22:08:07+08:0022.593403237300215
2026-06-30T22:10:33+08:0023.266992432725914
2026-07-01T08:43:27+08:0023.267857748820795
2026-07-01T08:43:30+08:0023.556008008415624
2026-07-01T08:51:47+08:0023.56354134853575
2026-07-01T08:51:51+08:0023.595269605347994
2026-07-01T08:57:33+08:0025.61264379517459
2026-07-01T09:01:14+08:0025.61264379517459
2026-07-01T09:06:01+08:0025.725168821473414
2026-07-01T09:07:44+08:0025.72930876514303
2026-07-01T09:10:14+08:0025.78448539142828
2026-07-01T09:12:55+08:0025.766653093080865
2026-07-01T09:14:18+08:0026.060181886049747
2026-07-01T09:18:08+08:0026.144185415182054
2026-07-01T09:20:11+08:0026.279921273202348
2026-07-01T09:20:46+08:0026.691048220163562
2026-07-01T10:17:55+08:0026.693219993891887
2026-07-01T10:21:53+08:0026.802249821846686
2026-07-01T10:23:47+08:0026.81137805829855
2026-07-01T10:24:37+08:0026.840086192269844
2026-07-01T10:26:14+08:0027.33043197936815
2026-07-01T10:28:28+08:0027.344582442566765
2026-07-01T11:08:45+08:0027.344446706708744
2026-07-01T11:10:13+08:0027.333146696528555
2026-07-01T11:11:54+08:0027.3347755268248
2026-07-01T11:13:09+08:0027.354338457361973
2026-07-01T11:16:30+08:0027.35959822186026
2026-07-01T11:19:58+08:0027.807526553327225
2026-07-01T12:13:27+08:0027.804794869184565
2026-07-01T12:15:17+08:0027.813719501849402
2026-07-01T12:16:14+08:0027.826597441379075
2026-07-01T12:17:47+08:0027.82807356883505
2026-07-01T12:20:12+08:0027.84420916895721
2026-07-01T12:21:30+08:0028.870711595235672
2026-07-01T14:09:57+08:0028.87271369914147
2026-07-01T14:09:59+08:0028.876836675828837
2026-07-01T14:16:33+08:0028.9010146255387
2026-07-01T14:16:36+08:0028.927296481047883
2026-07-01T14:18:18+08:0029.65008992500594
2026-07-01T14:18:20+08:0030.303318741728596
2026-07-01T14:21:30+08:0030.310258237469885
2026-07-01T14:21:33+08:0030.32279683735451
2026-07-01T14:22:19+08:0030.337710814754487
2026-07-01T14:22:22+08:0030.350266381621363
2026-07-01T14:24:45+08:0030.35825783026231
2026-07-01T14:24:47+08:0030.378160100444536
2026-07-01T14:27:51+08:0030.59591435067359
2026-07-01T14:33:38+08:0030.663782279683737
2026-07-01T15:09:25+08:0030.666446095897385
2026-07-01T15:12:41+08:0030.689283654009298
2026-07-01T15:14:20+08:0030.7036886219417
2026-07-01T15:15:51+08:0030.769435678170282
2026-07-01T15:17:56+08:0030.79237503817571
2026-07-01T15:19:41+08:0031.25218025721945
2026-07-01T16:15:18+08:0031.255505785740947
2026-07-01T16:17:46+08:0031.589925005938444
2026-07-01T16:19:08+08:0031.59389527978554
2026-07-01T16:20:22+08:0031.605161356001222
2026-07-01T16:22:19+08:0032.33643829108555
2026-07-01T16:24:03+08:0032.356425396179034
2026-07-01T17:04:14+08:0032.35878380671214
2026-07-01T17:06:51+08:0032.415623197258135
2026-07-01T17:08:20+08:0032.43866435915708
2026-07-01T17:09:52+08:0032.46871288472632
2026-07-01T17:10:47+08:0032.957361973599376
2026-07-01T17:12:31+08:0032.97387084733109
2026-07-01T18:01:56+08:0032.976670399402764
2026-07-01T18:04:58+08:0032.98552716413859
2026-07-01T18:07:09+08:0032.99570735349011
2026-07-01T18:07:56+08:0033.11313583765991
2026-07-01T18:09:33+08:0034.17696562489396
2026-07-01T18:10:43+08:0034.21699073602769
2026-07-01T18:12:33+08:0034.61121856866538
2026-07-01T20:54:51+08:0034.675964572941055
2026-07-01T20:56:48+08:0034.712765957446805
2026-07-01T20:57:54+08:0035.15151515151515
2026-07-01T20:59:26+08:0035.14888526926601
2026-07-01T21:01:43+08:0035.995537683667585
2026-07-01T21:03:46+08:0036.126387050799146
2026-07-01T22:05:57+08:0036.176778988089175
2026-07-01T22:08:05+08:0036.24656418609386
2026-07-01T22:09:42+08:0036.098561199904985
2026-07-01T22:14:35+08:0036.918066442702504
2026-07-02T08:42:34+08:0036.9685432149038
2026-07-02T08:42:37+08:0037.535885167464116
2026-07-02T08:46:14+08:0037.60568733245105
2026-07-02T08:46:17+08:0037.803047270012556
2026-07-02T08:52:34+08:0042.35359191014286
2026-07-02T08:59:19+08:0042.35359191014286
2026-07-02T09:00:58+08:0042.45539380365808
2026-07-02T09:12:44+08:0042.48525569242255
2026-07-02T09:18:45+08:0042.52171773728325
2026-07-02T09:20:49+08:0042.55678848959924
2026-07-02T09:27:24+08:0042.71559944348298
2026-07-02T09:29:18+08:0043.00018663680478
2026-07-02T09:33:26+08:0044.108130577895416
2026-07-02T09:48:19+08:0045.137262886423024
2026-07-02T10:14:09+08:0045.56213308900879
2026-07-02T10:17:30+08:0045.60083477552683
2026-07-02T10:19:39+08:0045.600987478367095
2026-07-02T10:21:40+08:0045.634802673996404
2026-07-02T10:25:56+08:0047.66405375139978
2026-07-02T11:10:25+08:0047.76607621568428
2026-07-02T11:14:23+08:0048.11880280973226
2026-07-02T11:15:29+08:0051.13553225423326
2026-07-02T11:17:25+08:0051.141691268790936
2026-07-02T11:19:04+08:0051.176558417319896
2026-07-02T11:54:32+08:0051.26139332858258
2026-07-02T12:11:19+08:0051.26573687603923
2026-07-02T12:17:15+08:0051.385897044351694
2026-07-02T12:19:00+08:0051.40810682412026
2026-07-02T12:20:08+08:0051.47680613526078
2026-07-02T12:21:34+08:0053.57222844344905
2026-07-02T12:24:13+08:0053.63385252299026
2026-07-02T13:43:23+08:0053.83066951711969
2026-07-02T14:08:59+08:0053.833265465404324
2026-07-02T14:09:01+08:0053.83460585700227
2026-07-02T14:13:59+08:0054.01163934982524
2026-07-02T14:14:01+08:0054.51448980284366
2026-07-02T14:16:54+08:0054.53184702568801
2026-07-02T14:16:56+08:0054.5411109979979
2026-07-02T14:18:04+08:0054.611065865825104
2026-07-02T14:18:07+08:0054.67297838406461
2026-07-02T14:20:54+08:0054.76095218704401
2026-07-02T14:20:57+08:0057.29581933557297
2026-07-02T14:20:59+08:0057.346092503987244
2026-07-02T14:21:02+08:0058.993586480708544
2026-07-02T14:33:47+08:0060.083307882859955
2026-07-02T15:00:53+08:0060.09204587872001
2026-07-02T15:03:32+08:0060.16636126098612
2026-07-02T15:07:01+08:0060.42878957548611
2026-07-02T15:10:05+08:0060.44495910957277
2026-07-02T15:11:26+08:0060.48608707455292
2026-07-02T15:13:38+08:0062.75796599816756
2026-07-02T16:05:01+08:0063.57490922664495
2026-07-02T16:07:54+08:0064.34205436221114
2026-07-02T16:09:08+08:0064.37868607689437
2026-07-02T16:11:00+08:0064.50641351929146
2026-07-02T16:12:11+08:0066.85464386304253
2026-07-02T16:14:52+08:0066.95267908649768
2026-07-02T17:04:52+08:0066.97008721028878
2026-07-02T17:06:33+08:0067.06815636770844
2026-07-02T17:09:07+08:0067.95222097797685
2026-07-02T17:10:13+08:0068.00351216532627
2026-07-02T17:11:55+08:0068.12167022973294
2026-07-02T17:14:13+08:0070.58697275102651
2026-07-02T17:15:21+08:0070.91104211204996
2026-07-02T17:52:14+08:0081.76991075367336
2026-07-02T18:04:12+08:0082.90871763548135
2026-07-02T18:16:54+08:0083.60058027079303
2026-07-02T18:18:45+08:0083.6879262954291
2026-07-02T18:20:16+08:0083.73170110964064
2026-07-02T18:20:58+08:0084.03087990769961
2026-07-02T18:22:24+08:0084.15675794903119
2026-07-02T18:23:46+08:0087.62650581967492
2026-07-02T18:26:37+08:0096.44933659099392
2026-07-02T20:41:06+08:0096.48349112626828
2026-07-02T20:44:10+08:0096.75630323390682
2026-07-02T20:46:08+08:0096.95980521904374
2026-07-02T20:47:56+08:0097.03837931385523
2026-07-02T20:49:17+08:0097.91004106009706
2026-07-02T20:51:42+08:00102.86439987783773
2026-07-02T21:50:31+08:00103.14477925956089
2026-07-02T22:06:20+08:00103.5625572635651
2026-07-02T22:08:21+08:00103.73348264277716
2026-07-02T22:09:29+08:00105.69966744714785
2026-07-02T22:11:43+08:00114.23914961484951
2026-07-03T08:39:21+08:00115.74685262479215
2026-07-03T08:39:23+08:00119.14676439648444
2026-07-03T08:42:23+08:00119.3124300111982
2026-07-03T08:42:25+08:00119.82593572907123
2026-07-03T08:46:34+08:00119.82593572907123
2026-07-03T08:48:46+08:00158.27481421154434
2026-07-03T09:01:14+08:00159.90364450778785
2026-07-03T09:07:27+08:00160.43313312294276
2026-07-03T09:08:29+08:00160.51338694899727
2026-07-03T09:10:19+08:00162.2181275238386
2026-07-03T09:12:27+08:00164.50566697207233
2026-07-03T09:14:53+08:00172.29690522243715
2026-07-03T09:16:27+08:00180.79405476941872
2026-07-03T10:16:54+08:00184.19347449862568
2026-07-03T10:20:48+08:00221.71765244833554
2026-07-03T11:13:46+08:00222.19013200312193
2026-07-03T11:21:43+08:00280.79
TradeGo forecast multiple
TimeMultiple
Broker margin funds trend
TimeBrokerMargin funds
Prediction Model 1-Lot Expected Lots— Lots for expected 1-lot allotment—
Multiple derivation
Recent first-day return
-0.2%
→
Participants
27,660
→
Avg lots
112.1
→
Oversubscription
31x
31x = 27,660 × 112.1 ÷ 99,692 margin-weighted 100% → 376.3x
1x1696.0x
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.56
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.67
This model does not support allocation strategy adjustment

Actual vs Predicted Comparison

Using the actual oversubscription ratio 413.63x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.565, Pool B α=0.665) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier

Lots Subscription Amount (HKD) Actual Expected Lots Predicted Expected Lots Error

LogoMomenta-W Allotment Prediction Matrix

Rows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates expected ≥1 lot. Non-preset multiples are interpolated from the nearest grid points.

Offering Mechanism

Mechanism B

Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).

Allocation Strategy Coefficient α

α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].

  • α → 0: Per-capita allocation — regardless of lots subscribed, every allottee receives the same number of shares. More favorable to retail (small) applications.
  • α → 1: Proportional allocation — allotted shares are proportional to lots subscribed. More favorable to large applications.
  • Historical actual α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0. α varies widely across IPOs, reflecting each issuer's allocation strategy.
Allotment Rate Definition

The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").

Expected Allotment Lots

Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier

Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.

About this page

This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Momenta-W (06880): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 22087 allotment-tier records across 592 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation). You can override the oversubscription multiple and the allocation-method α right on the page, replacing cibo's defaults to see expected lots under your own scenario. How allotment rates and clawback work is explained in How Hong Kong IPO Allotment Rates Work.
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.

Cibo — HK IPO Allotment Forecasts, Allottee Profiling & Stock Connect