Reconova 07656Expected Lots

Reconova (07656) Expected Lots
Offering Mechanism: 18C | Min Subscription: HK$4,332  |  Public Offering Lots: Pool A 3,511lots / Pool B 3,511lots  |  Offer Price: HK$21.66  |  Lot Size: 200shares  |  Public Offering Size: HK$121.7M
1x32873.0x
Recent first-day return
+4.6%
→
Participants
16,062
→
Avg lots
75.2
→
Oversubscription
172x
172x = 16,062 × 75.2 ÷ 7,022 margin-weighted 100% → 3272.5x
Margin dynamics · 2026-07-03 11:21 Margin multiple2536.83x Margin funds771.7100M TradeGo forecast multiple3272.51x
Rank Broker Margin funds
1 富途证券富途 475.1100M
2 辉立证券辉立 126.0100M
3 老虎国际老虎 84.9100M
4 华泰国际华泰 25.9100M
5 致富证券致富 14.4100M
6 华盛证券华盛 13.5100M
7 盈立证券盈立 10.2100M
8 复星国际复星 8.5100M
9 熊猫证券熊猫 5.4100M
Margin multiple
TimeMultiple
2026-06-29T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-29T10:11:27+08:000.06969099276791585
2026-06-29T11:01:27+08:000.15614727153188693
2026-06-29T11:04:43+08:000.36522024983563445
2026-06-29T11:05:37+08:000.43721236028928334
2026-06-29T11:07:14+08:002.7712031558185406
2026-06-29T11:41:50+08:002.8205128205128207
2026-06-29T12:15:06+08:002.848454963839579
2026-06-29T12:15:49+08:002.9694280078895465
2026-06-29T12:16:24+08:003.36620644312952
2026-06-29T12:17:40+08:003.563773833004602
2026-06-29T12:18:29+08:003.720249835634451
2026-06-29T12:19:02+08:005.462524654832347
2026-06-29T13:41:13+08:005.561801446416831
2026-06-29T13:42:48+08:005.925378040762656
2026-06-29T13:43:28+08:005.936883629191321
2026-06-29T13:43:57+08:006.206771860618015
2026-06-29T13:44:46+08:006.3208415516107825
2026-06-29T13:45:46+08:008.621959237343853
2026-06-29T14:01:40+08:008.728139381985535
2026-06-29T14:05:10+08:008.828731097961867
2026-06-29T14:05:50+08:008.993754109138724
2026-06-29T14:07:13+08:009.201840894148587
2026-06-29T14:07:59+08:009.207429322813939
2026-06-29T14:08:37+08:0011.870151216305063
2026-06-29T14:10:47+08:0012.157133464825773
2026-06-29T15:00:17+08:0012.280736357659434
2026-06-29T15:01:37+08:0012.388231426692965
2026-06-29T15:04:20+08:0013.844510190664037
2026-06-29T15:05:50+08:0014.438198553583169
2026-06-29T15:06:25+08:0014.450361604207759
2026-06-29T15:06:58+08:0015.863905325443787
2026-06-29T16:01:45+08:0017.48224852071006
2026-06-29T16:02:31+08:0018.238330046022355
2026-06-29T16:03:17+08:0018.44904667981591
2026-06-29T16:04:47+08:0020.342209072978303
2026-06-29T16:09:09+08:0020.382642998027613
2026-06-29T16:11:50+08:0021.59894806048652
2026-06-29T16:12:34+08:0021.93819855358317
2026-06-29T17:08:07+08:0022.300460223537147
2026-06-29T17:08:42+08:0023.06311637080868
2026-06-29T17:10:09+08:0023.576594345825114
2026-06-29T17:10:48+08:0023.6439842209073
2026-06-29T17:11:18+08:0023.95956607495069
2026-06-29T17:12:14+08:0029.219263642340565
2026-06-29T18:00:52+08:0032.8353057199211
2026-06-29T18:02:43+08:0033.23767258382643
2026-06-29T18:04:31+08:0035.36916502301118
2026-06-29T18:05:24+08:0035.40006574621959
2026-06-29T18:06:39+08:0035.55095332018409
2026-06-29T18:07:58+08:0035.61604207758054
2026-06-29T18:08:37+08:0038.9362261669954
2026-06-29T18:11:07+08:0041.12721893491124
2026-06-29T20:28:08+08:0042.16436554898093
2026-06-29T20:29:04+08:0042.455621301775146
2026-06-29T20:29:57+08:0042.61406969099277
2026-06-29T20:31:07+08:0042.841222879684416
2026-06-29T20:37:52+08:0044.15055884286654
2026-06-29T20:41:33+08:0049.1801446416831
2026-06-29T21:09:27+08:0049.248849441157134
2026-06-29T22:07:03+08:0049.349112426035504
2026-06-29T22:08:06+08:0050.990138067061146
2026-06-29T22:09:18+08:0051.532873109796185
2026-06-29T22:09:41+08:0055.247534516765285
2026-06-30T09:06:05+08:0055.2715318869165
2026-06-30T09:06:10+08:0055.30999342537804
2026-06-30T09:06:13+08:0055.370808678500985
2026-06-30T09:08:16+08:0057.58612754766601
2026-06-30T09:10:35+08:0057.86620644312952
2026-06-30T09:10:38+08:0059.64234056541749
2026-06-30T09:10:41+08:0060.41880341880342
2026-06-30T09:13:52+08:0069.49178172255095
2026-06-30T09:13:56+08:0069.9155161078238
2026-06-30T09:14:00+08:0071.887902695595
2026-06-30T09:15:56+08:0072.45069033530572
2026-06-30T09:17:47+08:0072.45069033530572
2026-06-30T10:22:50+08:0073.14102564102564
2026-06-30T10:22:56+08:0073.31558185404339
2026-06-30T10:23:08+08:0073.40335305719921
2026-06-30T10:23:16+08:0074.6706114398422
2026-06-30T10:23:22+08:0074.97994740302433
2026-06-30T10:23:46+08:0074.9250493096647
2026-06-30T10:23:51+08:0078.34385272846811
2026-06-30T11:12:52+08:0078.11604207758054
2026-06-30T11:12:59+08:0078.27580539119
2026-06-30T11:13:12+08:0078.67028270874425
2026-06-30T11:13:18+08:0078.90532544378698
2026-06-30T11:13:29+08:0078.95923734385273
2026-06-30T11:13:36+08:0084.28468113083498
2026-06-30T11:48:22+08:0085.27087442472057
2026-06-30T12:14:15+08:0085.52268244575937
2026-06-30T12:18:51+08:0086.74293228139382
2026-06-30T12:19:51+08:0086.89546351084813
2026-06-30T12:21:51+08:0087.33563445101906
2026-06-30T12:24:58+08:0087.34944115713347
2026-06-30T12:27:16+08:0091.29421433267588
2026-06-30T14:03:09+08:0091.33464825772518
2026-06-30T14:03:12+08:0091.38625904010519
2026-06-30T14:08:27+08:0091.38428665351742
2026-06-30T14:08:30+08:0091.40203813280736
2026-06-30T14:13:22+08:0091.77514792899409
2026-06-30T14:13:24+08:0092.97600262984878
2026-06-30T14:15:35+08:0093.0706771860618
2026-06-30T14:15:51+08:0093.05489809335963
2026-06-30T14:17:26+08:0093.54174884944116
2026-06-30T14:17:29+08:0093.93721236028928
2026-06-30T14:19:15+08:0098.57232084155162
2026-06-30T14:19:17+08:00103.24030243261012
2026-06-30T14:24:24+08:00103.47041420118343
2026-06-30T14:28:03+08:00110.21170282708744
2026-06-30T15:03:48+08:00110.29092702169625
2026-06-30T15:06:09+08:00111.5982905982906
2026-06-30T15:07:40+08:00111.62261669953978
2026-06-30T15:08:56+08:00111.48948060486522
2026-06-30T15:10:46+08:00115.30276134122288
2026-06-30T15:17:30+08:00115.4723865877712
2026-06-30T16:28:55+08:00118.89119000657462
2026-06-30T16:32:40+08:00121.35404339250493
2026-06-30T16:35:26+08:00121.51577909270218
2026-06-30T16:37:32+08:00121.52169625246549
2026-06-30T16:40:03+08:00121.75213675213675
2026-06-30T16:41:13+08:00127.63642340565417
2026-06-30T17:06:45+08:00128.1153846153846
2026-06-30T17:08:18+08:00128.42735042735043
2026-06-30T17:11:36+08:00129.88921761998685
2026-06-30T17:13:12+08:00129.93556870479946
2026-06-30T17:14:42+08:00130.39875082182775
2026-06-30T17:17:21+08:00134.54076265614728
2026-06-30T17:18:00+08:00140.129191321499
2026-06-30T18:03:07+08:00141.33070348454964
2026-06-30T18:12:09+08:00141.55621301775147
2026-06-30T18:17:30+08:00141.7094017094017
2026-06-30T18:19:56+08:00141.74523339907955
2026-06-30T18:20:35+08:00142.97961867192637
2026-06-30T18:24:27+08:00143.02991452991452
2026-06-30T18:25:14+08:00147.0733070348455
2026-06-30T18:27:06+08:00147.73076923076923
2026-06-30T20:08:36+08:00147.93293885601577
2026-06-30T20:11:19+08:00148.10716633793558
2026-06-30T20:13:29+08:00148.20710059171597
2026-06-30T20:15:01+08:00148.32084155161078
2026-06-30T20:16:48+08:00149.35996055226823
2026-06-30T20:18:43+08:00155.17850098619328
2026-06-30T21:59:43+08:00155.21071663379357
2026-06-30T22:05:11+08:00155.31788297172912
2026-06-30T22:06:50+08:00155.97435897435898
2026-06-30T22:08:12+08:00157.90959894806048
2026-06-30T22:10:16+08:00164.18836291913215
2026-07-01T08:45:38+08:00164.52235371466142
2026-07-01T08:45:41+08:00171.09204470742932
2026-07-01T08:54:21+08:00171.2853385930309
2026-07-01T08:54:24+08:00171.46252465483235
2026-07-01T08:57:02+08:00188.19493754109138
2026-07-01T09:01:43+08:00188.19493754109138
2026-07-01T09:05:49+08:00190.87804076265616
2026-07-01T09:07:39+08:00190.90532544378698
2026-07-01T09:10:28+08:00191.29783037475346
2026-07-01T09:12:53+08:00191.91255752794214
2026-07-01T09:14:07+08:00196.4819197896121
2026-07-01T09:18:28+08:00197.5956607495069
2026-07-01T09:19:46+08:00200.22550953320183
2026-07-01T09:21:38+08:00201.98060486522024
2026-07-01T10:18:06+08:00202.6844181459566
2026-07-01T10:21:56+08:00203.3803418803419
2026-07-01T10:23:52+08:00203.41781722550954
2026-07-01T10:24:48+08:00203.59697567389875
2026-07-01T10:26:02+08:00209.02103879026956
2026-07-01T10:28:11+08:00209.1137409598948
2026-07-01T11:08:55+08:00209.5111768573307
2026-07-01T11:10:15+08:00210.63938198553583
2026-07-01T11:11:59+08:00210.75608152531228
2026-07-01T11:13:20+08:00210.84944115713347
2026-07-01T11:15:58+08:00211.05621301775147
2026-07-01T11:19:47+08:00215.36259040105193
2026-07-01T12:13:30+08:00216.6403681788297
2026-07-01T12:15:22+08:00216.77777777777777
2026-07-01T12:16:30+08:00216.85798816568047
2026-07-01T12:17:58+08:00216.9023668639053
2026-07-01T12:19:48+08:00216.97961867192637
2026-07-01T12:21:48+08:00221.28599605522683
2026-07-01T14:10:16+08:00221.3241288625904
2026-07-01T14:10:19+08:00221.32182774490468
2026-07-01T14:16:06+08:00222.32708744247205
2026-07-01T14:16:09+08:00222.79717291255753
2026-07-01T14:17:49+08:00225.62426035502958
2026-07-01T14:17:52+08:00229.0759368836292
2026-07-01T14:21:39+08:00229.1196581196581
2026-07-01T14:21:42+08:00229.13313609467457
2026-07-01T14:22:38+08:00228.67357001972385
2026-07-01T14:22:40+08:00228.86949375410913
2026-07-01T14:24:53+08:00229.06081525312294
2026-07-01T14:24:56+08:00229.1009204470743
2026-07-01T14:28:40+08:00231.3500986193294
2026-07-01T15:09:35+08:00231.4145299145299
2026-07-01T15:12:44+08:00233.31426692965155
2026-07-01T15:14:26+08:00233.55917159763314
2026-07-01T15:15:39+08:00234.0940170940171
2026-07-01T15:17:50+08:00234.33596318211704
2026-07-01T15:19:29+08:00238.24786324786325
2026-07-01T16:15:07+08:00238.2958579881657
2026-07-01T16:17:48+08:00240.39973701512164
2026-07-01T16:19:13+08:00240.77251808021038
2026-07-01T16:20:33+08:00240.96581196581195
2026-07-01T16:22:29+08:00245.46942800788955
2026-07-01T16:23:55+08:00245.79815910585143
2026-07-01T17:02:11+08:00246.71860618014463
2026-07-01T17:04:02+08:00246.76495726495727
2026-07-01T17:06:48+08:00247.70545693622617
2026-07-01T17:08:15+08:00247.79947403024326
2026-07-01T17:09:41+08:00248.20644312952004
2026-07-01T17:10:35+08:00253.63050624589087
2026-07-01T17:12:20+08:00253.80210387902696
2026-07-01T18:02:16+08:00253.86686390532543
2026-07-01T18:05:08+08:00254.10716633793558
2026-07-01T18:07:20+08:00254.15647600262986
2026-07-01T18:08:01+08:00254.70578566732414
2026-07-01T18:09:11+08:00258.9464168310322
2026-07-01T18:11:02+08:00259.3819855358317
2026-07-01T18:14:24+08:00261.163379355687
2026-07-01T20:55:06+08:00261.560486522025
2026-07-01T20:56:56+08:00261.767258382643
2026-07-01T20:57:58+08:00264.327744904668
2026-07-01T20:59:45+08:00264.3257725180802
2026-07-01T21:01:25+08:00274.31919789612095
2026-07-01T21:04:27+08:00274.9612097304405
2026-07-01T22:06:16+08:00275.42998027613413
2026-07-01T22:08:14+08:00276.00493096646943
2026-07-01T22:09:47+08:00277.6298487836949
2026-07-01T22:14:17+08:00287.6890203813281
2026-07-02T08:43:15+08:00289.2439184746877
2026-07-02T08:43:18+08:00295.03747534516765
2026-07-02T08:46:34+08:00296.0253122945431
2026-07-02T08:46:37+08:00296.66403681788296
2026-07-02T08:52:45+08:00336.4733727810651
2026-07-02T08:59:32+08:00336.4733727810651
2026-07-02T09:00:40+08:00341.07560815253123
2026-07-02T09:12:55+08:00341.5147928994083
2026-07-02T09:18:47+08:00343.27876397107167
2026-07-02T09:20:45+08:00343.57363576594344
2026-07-02T09:27:13+08:00344.1827744904668
2026-07-02T09:29:31+08:00345.89414858645625
2026-07-02T09:33:37+08:00363.3826429980276
2026-07-02T09:49:21+08:00366.86259040105193
2026-07-02T10:14:11+08:00371.163708086785
2026-07-02T10:17:20+08:00371.620644312952
2026-07-02T10:19:28+08:00371.64924391847467
2026-07-02T10:21:34+08:00371.98389217619984
2026-07-02T10:26:07+08:00392.26660092044705
2026-07-02T11:10:14+08:00393.43491124260356
2026-07-02T11:14:20+08:00395.8261012491782
2026-07-02T11:15:42+08:00415.0897435897436
2026-07-02T11:17:14+08:00415.1847468770546
2026-07-02T11:19:15+08:00415.99769888231424
2026-07-02T12:11:32+08:00416.0410913872452
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2026-07-02T12:18:50+08:00419.2363576594346
2026-07-02T12:20:31+08:00420.0213675213675
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2026-07-02T14:09:46+08:00439.1278763971072
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2026-07-02T14:17:10+08:00445.81262327416175
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2026-07-02T14:18:30+08:00446.60913872452335
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2026-07-02T14:34:40+08:00489.6577909270217
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2026-07-02T15:06:58+08:00492.51314924391846
2026-07-02T15:09:59+08:00492.6084812623274
2026-07-02T15:11:37+08:00493.508547008547
2026-07-02T15:13:49+08:00507.5782380013149
2026-07-02T16:05:29+08:00522.008547008547
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2026-07-02T17:15:24+08:00585.9983563445102
2026-07-02T17:35:22+08:00675.413214990138
2026-07-02T18:05:54+08:00682.3678500986193
2026-07-02T18:17:18+08:00683.0884286653518
2026-07-02T18:19:05+08:00683.5664036817883
2026-07-02T18:20:26+08:00684.1259040105194
2026-07-02T18:21:05+08:00689.5023011176858
2026-07-02T18:22:48+08:00690.6429980276134
2026-07-02T18:23:26+08:00718.1249178172255
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TradeGo forecast multiple
TimeMultiple
Broker margin funds trend
TimeBrokerMargin funds
Pool A α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.54
Pool B α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.64
This model does not support allocation strategy adjustment

Actual vs Predicted Comparison

Using the actual oversubscription ratio 3646.06x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.536, Pool B α=0.636) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier

Lots Subscription Amount (HKD) Actual Expected Lots Predicted Expected Lots Error

LogoReconova Allotment Prediction Matrix

Rows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates guaranteed allotment (≥1 lot)

Pool A

Oversubscription
3272.5x
Allocation Strategy
α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.54

Pool B

Oversubscription
3272.5x
Allocation Strategy
α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.64
Offering Mechanism

18C

HKEX Listing Rule Chapter 18C for specialist technology companies. Mechanisms A and B do not apply. Initial allocation 5%, with clawback: 10x to below 50x → 10%, 50x or above → 20%. At least 50% of total offering shares must be taken up by independent pricing investors in the placing tranche.

Allocation Strategy Coefficient α

α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].

  • α → 0: Per-capita allocation — regardless of lots subscribed, every allottee receives the same number of shares. More favorable to retail (small) applications.
  • α → 1: Proportional allocation — allotted shares are proportional to lots subscribed. More favorable to large applications.
  • Historical actual α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0. α varies widely across IPOs, reflecting each issuer's allocation strategy.
Allotment Rate Definition

The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").

Expected Allotment Lots

Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier

Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.

// About this page //

This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Reconova (07656): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 10,897 allotment-tier records across 356 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation).
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.

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Cibo — HK IPO Allotment Forecasts, Allottee Profiling & Stock Connect