Margin dynamics Margin multiple100.88x Margin funds231.8100M TradeGo forecast multiple135.18x
Rank Broker Margin funds
1 富途证券富途 117.2100M
2 辉立证券辉立 68.0100M
3 老虎国际老虎 19.8100M
4 华泰国际华泰 7.9100M
5 盈立证券盈立 3.5100M
6 致富证券致富 3.3100M
7 华盛证券华盛 3.0100M
8 复星国际复星 2.6100M
9 信诚证券信诚 2.0100M
Margin multiple
TimeMultiple
2026-06-29T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-29T10:11:58+08:000.0017410228509249185
2026-06-29T10:12:04+08:000.0026115342763873774
2026-06-29T11:01:22+08:000.03281828073993471
2026-06-29T11:02:08+08:000.03294885745375408
2026-06-29T11:04:45+08:000.05632208922742111
2026-06-29T11:05:55+08:000.06324265505984766
2026-06-29T11:07:20+08:000.3548639825897715
2026-06-29T11:41:55+08:000.38620239390642
2026-06-29T12:15:46+08:000.4347334058759521
2026-06-29T12:16:27+08:000.4401305767138194
2026-06-29T12:17:46+08:000.4621980413492927
2026-06-29T12:18:35+08:000.4713819368879216
2026-06-29T12:19:10+08:000.5801958650707291
2026-06-29T13:41:19+08:000.5831120783460283
2026-06-29T13:42:46+08:000.702981501632209
2026-06-29T13:44:00+08:000.7072034820457018
2026-06-29T13:44:52+08:000.7183460282916213
2026-06-29T13:45:38+08:000.8445701849836779
2026-06-29T14:01:46+08:000.8473558215451578
2026-06-29T14:05:05+08:000.8515778019586507
2026-06-29T14:05:48+08:000.8691621327529924
2026-06-29T14:07:10+08:000.8727747551686615
2026-06-29T14:08:29+08:001.0338193688792165
2026-06-29T14:11:36+08:001.1960391730141458
2026-06-29T14:58:12+08:001.4136670293797606
2026-06-29T15:00:26+08:001.418063112078346
2026-06-29T15:01:45+08:001.4275516866158868
2026-06-29T15:04:23+08:001.4434820457018498
2026-06-29T15:05:46+08:001.5481610446137106
2026-06-29T15:07:07+08:001.6917954298150164
2026-06-29T16:01:39+08:001.9014145810663765
2026-06-29T16:03:22+08:001.9149945593035909
2026-06-29T16:04:49+08:001.9818063112078346
2026-06-29T16:09:12+08:001.977366702937976
2026-06-29T16:11:59+08:002.2341675734494015
2026-06-29T16:12:55+08:002.255930359085963
2026-06-29T17:08:01+08:002.2691186071817193
2026-06-29T17:08:49+08:002.3459847660500546
2026-06-29T17:10:07+08:002.417410228509249
2026-06-29T17:11:21+08:002.456887921653972
2026-06-29T17:12:23+08:002.957431991294886
2026-06-29T18:00:59+08:003.740892274211099
2026-06-29T18:02:48+08:003.8678563656147986
2026-06-29T18:04:34+08:003.964613710554951
2026-06-29T18:06:36+08:003.9822415669205657
2026-06-29T18:08:06+08:003.9852013057671383
2026-06-29T18:08:42+08:004.403046789989118
2026-06-29T18:13:13+08:004.490359085963004
2026-06-29T20:27:57+08:004.480609357997824
2026-06-29T20:29:12+08:004.50341675734494
2026-06-29T20:31:03+08:004.5357562568008705
2026-06-29T20:37:56+08:004.570272034820457
2026-06-29T20:41:46+08:005.0142328618063114
2026-06-29T21:09:35+08:005.045048966267682
2026-06-29T22:08:10+08:005.223329706202394
2026-06-29T22:09:14+08:005.2267247007616975
2026-06-29T22:10:05+08:005.479173014145811
2026-06-30T09:08:01+08:005.622763873775844
2026-06-30T09:10:54+08:005.626376496191512
2026-06-30T09:10:57+08:005.748726877040261
2026-06-30T09:11:01+08:005.7845048966267685
2026-06-30T09:12:49+08:006.798650707290533
2026-06-30T09:12:53+08:006.82689880304679
2026-06-30T09:12:58+08:007.444961915125136
2026-06-30T09:15:59+08:007.487181719260065
2026-06-30T09:17:56+08:007.487181719260065
2026-06-30T10:24:05+08:007.500239390642002
2026-06-30T10:24:10+08:007.535103373231774
2026-06-30T10:24:21+08:007.537323177366703
2026-06-30T10:24:32+08:007.727573449401524
2026-06-30T10:24:38+08:007.734102285092492
2026-06-30T10:24:56+08:007.76892274211099
2026-06-30T11:13:48+08:007.76069640914037
2026-06-30T11:13:53+08:007.759651795429815
2026-06-30T11:14:05+08:007.780718171926006
2026-06-30T11:14:11+08:007.99316648531012
2026-06-30T11:14:32+08:008.615582154515778
2026-06-30T11:48:19+08:008.812752992383025
2026-06-30T12:14:09+08:008.836082698585418
2026-06-30T12:18:54+08:008.94746463547334
2026-06-30T12:21:45+08:008.977236126224156
2026-06-30T12:23:58+08:008.977801958650707
2026-06-30T12:27:08+08:008.973449401523395
2026-06-30T14:03:21+08:008.976931447225246
2026-06-30T14:03:24+08:008.983068552774755
2026-06-30T14:08:17+08:008.984287268770403
2026-06-30T14:08:19+08:008.987377584330794
2026-06-30T14:13:30+08:009.010620239390642
2026-06-30T14:13:32+08:009.024504896626768
2026-06-30T14:17:36+08:009.029379760609357
2026-06-30T14:17:38+08:009.030076169749728
2026-06-30T14:19:24+08:009.191120783460283
2026-06-30T14:19:27+08:009.965875952121872
2026-06-30T14:29:48+08:0010.467421109902068
2026-06-30T15:03:54+08:0010.526093579978237
2026-06-30T15:06:06+08:0010.564396082698586
2026-06-30T15:08:54+08:0010.54911860718172
2026-06-30T15:10:37+08:0010.827682263329706
2026-06-30T15:17:06+08:0010.850054406964091
2026-06-30T15:19:12+08:0011.502937976060936
2026-06-30T16:28:48+08:0011.534319912948858
2026-06-30T16:32:43+08:0011.591425462459195
2026-06-30T16:37:29+08:0011.619804134929272
2026-06-30T16:40:11+08:0011.645353645266594
2026-06-30T16:41:21+08:0013.538715995647443
2026-06-30T17:06:39+08:0013.535669205658325
2026-06-30T17:08:47+08:0013.55677910772579
2026-06-30T17:11:33+08:0013.550293797606093
2026-06-30T17:14:40+08:0013.637344940152339
2026-06-30T17:17:29+08:0014.046485310119696
2026-06-30T17:49:19+08:0015.656931447225245
2026-06-30T18:05:27+08:0015.850359085963003
2026-06-30T18:11:59+08:0015.9078563656148
2026-06-30T18:16:52+08:0015.917475516866158
2026-06-30T18:20:39+08:0015.937018498367792
2026-06-30T18:24:23+08:0015.946594124047879
2026-06-30T18:25:27+08:0016.068465723612622
2026-06-30T18:27:11+08:0016.19904243743199
2026-06-30T20:08:27+08:0016.236387377584332
2026-06-30T20:13:46+08:0016.23538628944505
2026-06-30T20:14:57+08:0016.25627856365615
2026-06-30T20:16:52+08:0016.261414581066376
2026-06-30T20:18:56+08:0016.888182807399346
2026-06-30T21:59:58+08:0016.895973884657238
2026-06-30T22:06:45+08:0016.90411316648531
2026-06-30T22:08:17+08:0016.865593035908596
2026-06-30T22:10:29+08:0017.122393906420022
2026-07-01T08:45:26+08:0017.113427638737758
2026-07-01T08:45:29+08:0017.266550598476606
2026-07-01T08:57:28+08:0018.711599564744287
2026-07-01T09:01:49+08:0018.711599564744287
2026-07-01T09:05:55+08:0018.758258977149076
2026-07-01T09:10:24+08:0018.822763873775845
2026-07-01T09:12:50+08:0018.82742110990207
2026-07-01T09:14:15+08:0018.853536452665942
2026-07-01T09:18:11+08:0018.897410228509248
2026-07-01T09:19:43+08:0018.967051142546246
2026-07-01T09:23:28+08:0019.079782372143633
2026-07-01T10:18:01+08:0019.11251360174102
2026-07-01T10:21:58+08:0019.17575625680087
2026-07-01T10:24:45+08:0019.18789989118607
2026-07-01T10:26:11+08:0019.379412404787814
2026-07-01T10:28:25+08:0019.384853101196953
2026-07-01T11:08:50+08:0019.428248095756256
2026-07-01T11:10:18+08:0019.43373231773667
2026-07-01T11:13:17+08:0019.425027203482045
2026-07-01T11:16:28+08:0019.44165397170838
2026-07-01T11:19:55+08:0019.49823721436344
2026-07-01T12:13:32+08:0019.48905331882481
2026-07-01T12:16:25+08:0019.499978237214364
2026-07-01T12:17:53+08:0019.528661588683352
2026-07-01T12:20:09+08:0019.53379760609358
2026-07-01T12:21:33+08:0020.191033732317738
2026-07-01T14:10:25+08:0020.198084874863984
2026-07-01T14:10:27+08:0020.21919477693145
2026-07-01T14:16:14+08:0020.219412404787814
2026-07-01T14:16:17+08:0020.21048966267682
2026-07-01T14:17:58+08:0020.67621327529924
2026-07-01T14:18:01+08:0020.880783460282917
2026-07-01T14:22:46+08:0020.895364526659414
2026-07-01T14:22:49+08:0020.895712731229597
2026-07-01T14:26:39+08:0020.903939064200216
2026-07-01T14:26:42+08:0020.919173014145812
2026-07-01T14:30:29+08:0020.995168661588682
2026-07-01T15:09:30+08:0020.980935799782372
2026-07-01T15:12:47+08:0021.025418933623502
2026-07-01T15:15:42+08:0020.844134929270947
2026-07-01T15:17:58+08:0020.859586507072905
2026-07-01T15:19:38+08:0021.06415669205658
2026-07-01T16:15:12+08:0021.07455930359086
2026-07-01T16:17:51+08:0021.08391730141458
2026-07-01T16:20:30+08:0021.101501632208922
2026-07-01T16:22:22+08:0021.432295973884656
2026-07-01T16:24:06+08:0021.43499455930359
2026-07-01T17:02:08+08:0021.56557127312296
2026-07-01T17:04:09+08:0021.62119695321001
2026-07-01T17:06:44+08:0021.68165397170838
2026-07-01T17:09:43+08:0021.69001088139282
2026-07-01T17:10:44+08:0021.981632208922743
2026-07-01T17:12:34+08:0021.99373231773667
2026-07-01T18:02:07+08:0022.033514689880306
2026-07-01T18:04:54+08:0022.0359521218716
2026-07-01T18:08:06+08:0021.998563656147986
2026-07-01T18:09:27+08:0022.055146898803045
2026-07-01T18:10:58+08:0022.06158868335147
2026-07-01T18:17:37+08:0022.101371055495104
2026-07-01T20:55:01+08:0022.12670293797606
2026-07-01T20:58:03+08:0022.155603917301416
2026-07-01T20:59:36+08:0022.140935799782373
2026-07-01T21:01:38+08:0022.99403699673558
2026-07-01T21:03:42+08:0023.033819368879218
2026-07-01T22:06:11+08:0023.08278563656148
2026-07-01T22:09:51+08:0023.27334058759521
2026-07-01T22:14:31+08:0023.3038084874864
2026-07-02T08:43:28+08:0023.310511425462458
2026-07-02T08:43:31+08:0023.51038084874864
2026-07-02T08:52:37+08:0024.34171926006529
2026-07-02T08:59:38+08:0024.34171926006529
2026-07-02T09:12:49+08:0024.400087051142545
2026-07-02T09:18:50+08:0024.468204570184984
2026-07-02T09:27:15+08:0024.468378672470077
2026-07-02T09:29:20+08:0024.567834602829162
2026-07-02T09:33:29+08:0024.90298150163221
2026-07-02T09:50:59+08:0025.05379760609358
2026-07-02T10:14:14+08:0025.056539717083787
2026-07-02T10:17:22+08:0025.08783460282916
2026-07-02T10:19:33+08:0025.08683351468988
2026-07-02T10:21:43+08:0025.120087051142548
2026-07-02T10:25:58+08:0025.594515778019588
2026-07-02T11:10:17+08:0025.557257889009794
2026-07-02T11:14:17+08:0025.60818280739935
2026-07-02T11:15:34+08:0026.36552774755169
2026-07-02T11:17:20+08:0026.35151251360174
2026-07-02T11:19:07+08:0026.322306855277475
2026-07-02T12:11:26+08:0026.349771490750815
2026-07-02T12:17:10+08:0026.393645266594124
2026-07-02T12:20:34+08:0026.441305767138193
2026-07-02T12:21:32+08:0027.53379760609358
2026-07-02T12:24:11+08:0027.558563656147985
2026-07-02T14:09:55+08:0027.564004352557127
2026-07-02T14:09:58+08:0027.565788900979324
2026-07-02T14:14:16+08:0027.67599564744287
2026-07-02T14:14:19+08:0027.78885745375408
2026-07-02T14:18:37+08:0027.82354733405876
2026-07-02T14:18:42+08:0027.83468988030468
2026-07-02T14:25:08+08:0027.843046789989117
2026-07-02T14:25:14+08:0028.596039173014145
2026-07-02T14:25:17+08:0028.62803046789989
2026-07-02T14:25:20+08:0029.17210010881393
2026-07-02T14:36:06+08:0029.430163220892275
2026-07-02T15:00:59+08:0029.4336887921654
2026-07-02T15:03:34+08:0029.463199129488576
2026-07-02T15:06:55+08:0029.597431991294886
2026-07-02T15:11:34+08:0029.62759521218716
2026-07-02T15:13:40+08:0031.098759521218717
2026-07-02T16:05:34+08:0031.34385201305767
2026-07-02T16:07:49+08:0031.40918389553863
2026-07-02T16:10:51+08:0031.460152339499455
2026-07-02T16:12:14+08:0032.256670293797605
2026-07-02T16:14:55+08:0032.28683351468988
2026-07-02T17:04:47+08:0032.34084874863983
2026-07-02T17:06:36+08:0032.38128400435256
2026-07-02T17:09:01+08:0032.52587595212187
2026-07-02T17:11:47+08:0032.56452665941241
2026-07-02T17:14:10+08:0033.47421109902067
2026-07-02T17:15:26+08:0033.79630032644179
2026-07-02T17:52:33+08:0038.36648531011969
2026-07-02T18:08:39+08:0038.6213710554951
2026-07-02T18:17:07+08:0038.6485745375408
2026-07-02T18:19:00+08:0038.65031556039173
2026-07-02T18:21:10+08:0038.76013057671382
2026-07-02T18:22:19+08:0038.781196953210014
2026-07-02T18:23:41+08:0039.75616974972797
2026-07-02T20:41:26+08:0039.7750598476605
2026-07-02T20:44:06+08:0039.824635473340585
2026-07-02T20:46:22+08:0039.87390642002176
2026-07-02T20:49:26+08:0040.15778019586507
2026-07-02T20:51:38+08:0041.45048966267682
2026-07-02T21:50:27+08:0041.49048966267682
2026-07-02T22:06:35+08:0041.611186071817194
2026-07-02T22:09:38+08:0042.534058759521216
2026-07-02T22:11:39+08:0045.789771490750816
2026-07-03T08:41:01+08:0046.46620239390642
2026-07-03T08:41:04+08:0048.72230685527747
2026-07-03T08:46:37+08:0048.72230685527747
2026-07-03T08:48:49+08:0061.536235038084875
2026-07-03T09:01:20+08:0061.92796517954298
2026-07-03T09:07:19+08:0062.081566920565834
2026-07-03T09:10:14+08:0062.512383025027205
2026-07-03T09:12:30+08:0063.064591947769316
2026-07-03T09:14:56+08:0066.12443960826985
2026-07-03T09:18:46+08:0067.73297062023939
2026-07-03T10:16:48+08:0068.41771490750816
2026-07-03T10:20:51+08:0075.76047878128401
2026-07-03T10:27:23+08:0075.84117519042438
2026-07-03T11:13:52+08:0076.29227421109903
2026-07-03T11:21:10+08:00100.88
TradeGo forecast multiple
TimeMultiple
Broker margin funds trend
TimeBrokerMargin funds
Prediction Model 1-Lot Expected Lots— Lots for expected 1-lot allotment—
Multiple derivation
Recent first-day return
+4.6%
→
Participants
21,477
→
Avg lots
74.7
→
Oversubscription
31x
31x = 21,477 × 74.7 ÷ 52,264 margin-weighted 100% → 135.2x
1x4352.0x
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.52
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.62
This model does not support allocation strategy adjustment

Actual vs Predicted Comparison

Using the actual oversubscription ratio 157.82x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.518, Pool B α=0.618) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier

Lots Subscription Amount (HKD) Actual Expected Lots Predicted Expected Lots Error

LogoEacon Allotment Prediction Matrix

Rows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates expected ≥1 lot. Non-preset multiples are interpolated from the nearest grid points.

Offering Mechanism

Mechanism B

Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).

Allocation Strategy Coefficient α

α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].

  • α → 0: Per-capita allocation — regardless of lots subscribed, every allottee receives the same number of shares. More favorable to retail (small) applications.
  • α → 1: Proportional allocation — allotted shares are proportional to lots subscribed. More favorable to large applications.
  • Historical actual α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0. α varies widely across IPOs, reflecting each issuer's allocation strategy.
Allotment Rate Definition

The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").

Expected Allotment Lots

Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier

Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.

About this page

This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Eacon (07687): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 22087 allotment-tier records across 592 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation). You can override the oversubscription multiple and the allocation-method α right on the page, replacing cibo's defaults to see expected lots under your own scenario. How allotment rates and clawback work is explained in How Hong Kong IPO Allotment Rates Work.
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.

Cibo — HK IPO Allotment Forecasts, Allottee Profiling & Stock Connect