Longcheer 09611Expected Lots
Longcheer (09611) Expected Lots
| Rank | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
823.4100M |
| 2 |  辉立 |
346.0100M |
| 3 |  老虎 |
131.0100M |
| 4 |  华泰 |
39.8100M |
| 5 |  华盛 |
20.8100M |
| 6 |  盈立 |
10.7100M |
| 7 |  致富 |
7.7100M |
| 8 |  长桥 |
6.1100M |
| 9 |  信诚 |
3.0100M |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-14T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2026-01-14T10:03:58+08:00 | 0.057403863959014874 |
| 2026-01-14T10:04:01+08:00 | 1.1673970742546755 |
| 2026-01-14T10:07:06+08:00 | 1.4883649157459415 |
| 2026-01-14T10:52:06+08:00 | 1.5809517930991914 |
| 2026-01-14T11:01:53+08:00 | 1.617863094870687 |
| 2026-01-14T11:08:50+08:00 | 2.781680143201037 |
| 2026-01-14T11:09:00+08:00 | 3.668785877414974 |
| 2026-01-14T11:09:03+08:00 | 9.625208320474044 |
| 2026-01-14T12:00:41+08:00 | 9.87210666008271 |
| 2026-01-14T12:00:46+08:00 | 9.897413739892599 |
| 2026-01-14T12:06:01+08:00 | 11.070798098882785 |
| 2026-01-14T12:06:06+08:00 | 11.418184062712179 |
| 2026-01-14T12:06:09+08:00 | 15.961113511511636 |
| 2026-01-14T13:40:18+08:00 | 15.977717424850319 |
| 2026-01-14T13:40:29+08:00 | 17.20683908400716 |
| 2026-01-14T13:40:33+08:00 | 20.69427813097957 |
| 2026-01-14T14:10:23+08:00 | 20.707857539658047 |
| 2026-01-14T14:10:26+08:00 | 21.853959632121473 |
| 2026-01-14T14:10:29+08:00 | 23.619282760323436 |
| 2026-01-14T14:11:46+08:00 | 24.216344670082094 |
| 2026-01-14T15:34:04+08:00 | 24.23418307511882 |
| 2026-01-14T15:34:20+08:00 | 24.69403123263996 |
| 2026-01-14T15:34:23+08:00 | 26.934633664588606 |
| 2026-01-14T16:36:40+08:00 | 26.944571322757856 |
| 2026-01-14T16:36:43+08:00 | 27.62730695636072 |
| 2026-01-14T16:36:46+08:00 | 27.626442812172087 |
| 2026-01-14T16:36:50+08:00 | 29.317696438491453 |
| 2026-01-14T17:02:04+08:00 | 29.32788099500031 |
| 2026-01-14T17:04:18+08:00 | 29.898956854515152 |
| 2026-01-14T17:09:31+08:00 | 33.07777297697673 |
| 2026-01-14T17:23:00+08:00 | 39.86747731621505 |
| 2026-01-14T18:05:55+08:00 | 39.87371149929017 |
| 2026-01-14T18:06:01+08:00 | 40.3275723720758 |
| 2026-01-14T18:06:07+08:00 | 42.24720696253318 |
| 2026-01-14T18:06:53+08:00 | 43.785815690389484 |
| 2026-01-14T19:57:43+08:00 | 43.7948892043701 |
| 2026-01-14T19:57:48+08:00 | 45.07209431516573 |
| 2026-01-14T19:57:53+08:00 | 45.16461946793408 |
| 2026-01-14T19:57:58+08:00 | 46.905252762175174 |
| 2026-01-14T20:19:45+08:00 | 46.95691623973829 |
| 2026-01-14T20:19:50+08:00 | 47.09715449663601 |
| 2026-01-14T20:19:56+08:00 | 48.331646194679344 |
| 2026-01-14T22:02:49+08:00 | 48.750262329485835 |
| 2026-01-14T22:02:54+08:00 | 49.01864082464046 |
| 2026-01-14T22:02:59+08:00 | 50.8518609962348 |
| 2026-01-14T22:03:10+08:00 | 51.35417566816863 |
| 2026-01-14T22:03:15+08:00 | 51.658416147151414 |
| 2026-01-14T22:15:56+08:00 | 53.645947781001176 |
| 2026-01-15T08:34:12+08:00 | 53.89772236281711 |
| 2026-01-15T08:34:15+08:00 | 54.41620887599531 |
| 2026-01-15T08:34:34+08:00 | 54.846058885253996 |
| 2026-01-15T08:34:55+08:00 | 54.846058885253996 |
| 2026-01-15T08:35:01+08:00 | 63.77143386210728 |
| 2026-01-15T09:08:33+08:00 | 63.82729461144374 |
| 2026-01-15T09:08:49+08:00 | 64.15258317387816 |
| 2026-01-15T09:08:52+08:00 | 64.13357200172828 |
| 2026-01-15T09:08:54+08:00 | 65.6211344978705 |
| 2026-01-15T09:09:28+08:00 | 66.77347077340904 |
| 2026-01-15T09:21:12+08:00 | 68.00796247145237 |
| 2026-01-15T10:21:54+08:00 | 69.94204061477687 |
| 2026-01-15T10:21:57+08:00 | 70.23424479970372 |
| 2026-01-15T10:22:00+08:00 | 70.25158940806124 |
| 2026-01-15T10:22:03+08:00 | 72.9859885192272 |
| 2026-01-15T11:09:47+08:00 | 73.12789333991729 |
| 2026-01-15T11:09:53+08:00 | 74.00166656379236 |
| 2026-01-15T11:09:56+08:00 | 73.99907413122646 |
| 2026-01-15T11:09:59+08:00 | 76.99271649898155 |
| 2026-01-15T12:03:03+08:00 | 77.1111659774088 |
| 2026-01-15T12:03:10+08:00 | 77.04092339979013 |
| 2026-01-15T12:03:18+08:00 | 77.24850317881612 |
| 2026-01-15T12:07:11+08:00 | 79.01382630701808 |
| 2026-01-15T13:44:05+08:00 | 79.12579470403061 |
| 2026-01-15T13:44:08+08:00 | 79.30973396703907 |
| 2026-01-15T13:44:11+08:00 | 79.38306277390285 |
| 2026-01-15T13:44:14+08:00 | 81.53725078698845 |
| 2026-01-15T13:44:20+08:00 | 81.8458737114993 |
| 2026-01-15T14:00:20+08:00 | 81.96382939324734 |
| 2026-01-15T14:00:55+08:00 | 82.69446330473427 |
| 2026-01-15T14:09:31+08:00 | 82.80316029874699 |
| 2026-01-15T14:09:35+08:00 | 82.80445651502994 |
| 2026-01-15T14:09:39+08:00 | 84.2364668847602 |
| 2026-01-15T15:05:45+08:00 | 84.38349484599716 |
| 2026-01-15T15:05:48+08:00 | 84.69057465588544 |
| 2026-01-15T15:05:51+08:00 | 84.82291216591568 |
| 2026-01-15T15:05:53+08:00 | 86.32281957903832 |
| 2026-01-15T15:06:09+08:00 | 87.55731127708167 |
| 2026-01-15T16:26:41+08:00 | 87.73594222578853 |
| 2026-01-15T16:26:50+08:00 | 88.26578606258873 |
| 2026-01-15T16:26:52+08:00 | 88.4674402814641 |
| 2026-01-15T16:26:55+08:00 | 90.66483550398124 |
| 2026-01-15T17:03:34+08:00 | 90.85167582248009 |
| 2026-01-15T17:03:37+08:00 | 91.26646503302266 |
| 2026-01-15T17:03:40+08:00 | 91.2905993457194 |
| 2026-01-15T17:19:51+08:00 | 92.23498549472255 |
| 2026-01-15T17:20:01+08:00 | 93.16085426825505 |
| 2026-01-15T17:20:23+08:00 | 106.43164002222085 |
| 2026-01-15T18:03:43+08:00 | 106.50459848157521 |
| 2026-01-15T18:03:49+08:00 | 106.44126905746559 |
| 2026-01-15T18:03:53+08:00 | 106.53021418430961 |
| 2026-01-15T18:05:00+08:00 | 107.43102277637183 |
| 2026-01-15T18:05:20+08:00 | 109.61607308190852 |
| 2026-01-15T20:41:05+08:00 | 110.10986976112585 |
| 2026-01-15T20:41:11+08:00 | 110.14684278748226 |
| 2026-01-15T20:41:17+08:00 | 110.38954385531757 |
| 2026-01-15T20:41:23+08:00 | 110.54280599962965 |
| 2026-01-15T20:41:29+08:00 | 112.61675205234245 |
| 2026-01-15T20:41:46+08:00 | 112.84463921980125 |
| 2026-01-15T20:41:54+08:00 | 112.9058082834393 |
| 2026-01-15T20:42:01+08:00 | 113.97364360224678 |
| 2026-01-15T22:09:59+08:00 | 114.86111968397013 |
| 2026-01-15T22:10:03+08:00 | 114.91525214492933 |
| 2026-01-15T22:10:09+08:00 | 116.89043886179866 |
| 2026-01-15T22:10:19+08:00 | 117.65094747237825 |
| 2026-01-15T22:10:24+08:00 | 117.78501327078575 |
| 2026-01-15T22:10:28+08:00 | 119.34047281032035 |
| 2026-01-16T08:32:13+08:00 | 119.58805012036294 |
| 2026-01-16T08:32:32+08:00 | 120.20208629096969 |
| 2026-01-16T08:32:35+08:00 | 120.66076168137769 |
| 2026-01-16T08:32:44+08:00 | 128.49361150546264 |
| 2026-01-16T08:32:57+08:00 | 128.49361150546264 |
| 2026-01-16T09:00:38+08:00 | 128.68106906981052 |
| 2026-01-16T09:01:25+08:00 | 129.5128695759521 |
| 2026-01-16T09:03:58+08:00 | 129.86093451021543 |
| 2026-01-16T09:04:04+08:00 | 129.89259922227023 |
| 2026-01-16T09:08:31+08:00 | 131.16412567125485 |
| 2026-01-16T09:22:10+08:00 | 131.71964693537436 |
| 2026-01-16T10:21:51+08:00 | 132.79556817480403 |
| 2026-01-16T10:21:57+08:00 | 133.6385408308129 |
| 2026-01-16T10:22:04+08:00 | 133.59206221838159 |
| 2026-01-16T10:23:23+08:00 | 137.43750385778657 |
| 2026-01-16T11:25:46+08:00 | 137.71168446392198 |
| 2026-01-16T11:25:49+08:00 | 138.04123202271464 |
| 2026-01-16T11:25:52+08:00 | 137.95629899388928 |
| 2026-01-16T11:25:54+08:00 | 141.32028887105733 |
| 2026-01-16T12:01:54+08:00 | 141.63625702117153 |
| 2026-01-16T12:03:44+08:00 | 142.1427689648787 |
| 2026-01-16T12:03:50+08:00 | 142.3241775199062 |
| 2026-01-16T12:07:19+08:00 | 146.4905870008024 |
| 2026-01-16T13:45:24+08:00 | 146.78563051663477 |
| 2026-01-16T13:45:34+08:00 | 147.1825813221406 |
| 2026-01-16T13:48:55+08:00 | 147.1251157335967 |
| 2026-01-16T13:48:59+08:00 | 149.28547620517253 |
| 2026-01-16T13:49:07+08:00 | 150.02617122399852 |
| 2026-01-16T14:00:17+08:00 | 150.66872415283007 |
| 2026-01-16T14:03:13+08:00 | 151.83599777791494 |
| 2026-01-16T14:03:37+08:00 | 152.32942410962286 |
| 2026-01-16T14:03:42+08:00 | 152.4248503178816 |
| 2026-01-16T14:06:11+08:00 | 158.29485834207765 |
| 2026-01-16T14:48:00+08:00 | 158.9121041910993 |
| 2026-01-16T15:10:09+08:00 | 159.43812110363558 |
| 2026-01-16T15:10:15+08:00 | 160.29553731251158 |
| 2026-01-16T15:10:18+08:00 | 160.40522189988272 |
| 2026-01-16T15:10:22+08:00 | 165.34936115054626 |
| 2026-01-16T16:10:59+08:00 | 166.20998703783718 |
| 2026-01-16T16:11:04+08:00 | 174.28356274304056 |
| 2026-01-16T17:07:00+08:00 | 175.2907227948892 |
| 2026-01-16T17:07:04+08:00 | 179.5558916116289 |
| 2026-01-16T17:07:10+08:00 | 180.79038330967225 |
| 2026-01-16T17:18:55+08:00 | 245.90982038145793 |
| 2026-01-16T19:58:06+08:00 | 246.8974137398926 |
| 2026-01-16T19:58:10+08:00 | 248.40034565767544 |
| 2026-01-16T19:58:16+08:00 | 253.8753163384976 |
| 2026-01-16T19:58:48+08:00 | 255.02172705388557 |
| 2026-01-16T19:58:53+08:00 | 259.4905870008024 |
| 2026-01-16T19:59:47+08:00 | 262.1517190296895 |
| 2026-01-16T20:07:57+08:00 | 263.0229615455836 |
| 2026-01-16T20:08:02+08:00 | 267.9979630886982 |
| 2026-01-16T22:00:33+08:00 | 268.6273686809456 |
| 2026-01-16T22:00:41+08:00 | 272.18887722980065 |
| 2026-01-16T22:05:03+08:00 | 272.44842910931425 |
| 2026-01-16T23:58:45+08:00 | 275.56552064687367 |
| 2026-01-17T13:12:04+08:00 | 276.735633602864 |
| 2026-01-17T13:12:14+08:00 | 276.735633602864 |
| 2026-01-17T13:12:19+08:00 | 280.1139435837294 |
| 2026-01-17T13:12:25+08:00 | 297.06351459786435 |
| 2026-01-17T13:12:36+08:00 | 297.8672921424603 |
| 2026-01-17T13:12:43+08:00 | 300.43503487439045 |
| 2026-01-17T13:12:48+08:00 | 301.02925745324364 |
| 2026-01-17T13:12:53+08:00 | 303.9858650700574 |
| 2026-01-17T13:12:58+08:00 | 304.61490031479536 |
| 2026-01-17T13:13:02+08:00 | 306.52836244676257 |
| 2026-01-17T13:13:07+08:00 | 306.95376828590827 |
| 2026-01-17T13:13:12+08:00 | 309.34868218011235 |
| 2026-01-17T13:13:16+08:00 | 309.54564533053514 |
| 2026-01-17T13:13:21+08:00 | 312.39732115301524 |
| 2026-01-17T15:15:09+08:00 | 315.90327757545833 |
| 2026-01-17T15:15:47+08:00 | 316.6853897907537 |
| 2026-01-17T15:15:54+08:00 | 319.4691685698414 |
| 2026-01-17T15:16:03+08:00 | 319.88229121659157 |
| 2026-01-17T15:16:08+08:00 | 322.57965557681626 |
| 2026-01-17T18:13:55+08:00 | 323.7515585457688 |
| 2026-01-17T18:14:00+08:00 | 325.837849515462 |
| 2026-01-17T18:14:05+08:00 | 326.2562804765138 |
| 2026-01-17T18:14:10+08:00 | 329.367199555583 |
| 2026-01-17T18:14:28+08:00 | 330.6658230973397 |
| 2026-01-17T18:14:33+08:00 | 334.22733164619467 |
| 2026-01-17T21:35:04+08:00 | 334.5352138756867 |
| 2026-01-17T21:35:09+08:00 | 336.8313684340473 |
| 2026-01-17T21:35:14+08:00 | 337.42966483550396 |
| 2026-01-17T21:35:18+08:00 | 340.05295969384605 |
| 2026-01-17T21:35:23+08:00 | 340.4550336398988 |
| 2026-01-17T21:35:27+08:00 | 342.81291278316155 |
| 2026-01-17T22:17:07+08:00 | 343.1678908709339 |
| 2026-01-17T22:17:12+08:00 | 344.89000678970433 |
| 2026-01-18T10:08:28+08:00 | 347.7088451330165 |
| 2026-01-18T10:09:15+08:00 | 368.23226961298684 |
| 2026-01-18T12:52:13+08:00 | 368.83383741744336 |
| 2026-01-18T12:52:18+08:00 | 372.839762977594 |
| 2026-01-18T12:52:26+08:00 | 373.29745077464355 |
| 2026-01-18T12:52:30+08:00 | 378.2847972347386 |
| 2026-01-18T16:53:35+08:00 | 379.0734522560336 |
| 2026-01-18T16:53:39+08:00 | 383.37565582371457 |
| 2026-01-18T16:53:43+08:00 | 384.08413060922163 |
| 2026-01-18T16:53:48+08:00 | 388.8863033146102 |
| 2026-01-18T16:53:52+08:00 | 389.5587926671193 |
| 2026-01-18T16:53:56+08:00 | 394.38565520646875 |
| 2026-01-18T16:54:11+08:00 | 395.4379359298809 |
| 2026-01-18T16:54:15+08:00 | 400.740077772977 |
| 2026-01-18T22:46:56+08:00 | 401.5297203876304 |
| 2026-01-18T22:47:00+08:00 | 402.2970804271341 |
| 2026-01-18T22:47:05+08:00 | 403.8044565150299 |
| 2026-01-18T22:47:10+08:00 | 406.0825874945991 |
| 2026-01-18T22:47:14+08:00 | 408.25257700141964 |
| 2026-01-18T22:47:17+08:00 | 410.00685142892416 |
| 2026-01-18T22:48:26+08:00 | 416.54348497006356 |
| 2026-01-18T22:48:30+08:00 | 422.20362940559227 |
| 2026-01-18T22:48:33+08:00 | 430.7277945805815 |
| 2026-01-18T22:48:37+08:00 | 439.0174063329424 |
| 2026-01-18T22:48:42+08:00 | 450.3623850379606 |
| 2026-01-18T22:48:47+08:00 | 464.4664526881057 |
| 2026-01-19T08:37:11+08:00 | 466.5820628356274 |
| 2026-01-19T08:37:15+08:00 | 478.011974569471 |
| 2026-01-19T08:37:34+08:00 | 562.2968952533794 |
| 2026-01-19T08:37:41+08:00 | 562.2968952533794 |
| 2026-01-19T09:13:25+08:00 | 567.6934757113759 |
| 2026-01-19T09:13:33+08:00 | 606.9996913770755 |
| 2026-01-19T09:13:39+08:00 | 611.9376581692488 |
| 2026-01-19T09:14:26+08:00 | 626.8978458119869 |
| 2026-01-19T10:04:06+08:00 | 627.9780260477748 |
| 2026-01-19T10:04:11+08:00 | 633.1641873958398 |
| 2026-01-19T10:05:17+08:00 | 727.4546632923893 |
| 2026-01-19T11:54:57+08:00 | 728.7142768964878 |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|
| Time | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|
Using the actual oversubscription ratio 1149.76x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.615, Pool B α=0.715) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier
| Lots | Subscription Amount (HKD) | Actual Expected Lots | Predicted Expected Lots | Error |
|---|
Longcheer Allotment Prediction MatrixRows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates guaranteed allotment (≥1 lot)
Mechanism B
Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).
α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].
The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").
Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier
Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.
This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Longcheer (09611): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 10,897 allotment-tier records across 356 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation).
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.
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