Alebund-B 09637Expected Lots

Alebund-B (09637) Expected Lots
Offering Mechanism: Mechanism B | Min Subscription: HK$2,260  |  Public Offering Lots: Pool A 28,378lots / Pool B 28,378lots  |  Offer Price: HK$22.60  |  Lot Size: 100shares  |  Public Offering Size: HK$128.3M
1x7796.0x
Recent first-day return
+4.6%
→
Participants
21,005
→
Avg lots
99.0
→
Oversubscription
37x
37x = 21,005 × 99.0 ÷ 56,756 margin-weighted 100% → 541.0x
Margin dynamics · 2026-06-24 11:24 Margin multiple403.74x Margin funds517.9100M TradeGo forecast multiple541.02x
Rank Broker Margin funds
1 富途证券富途 303.4100M
2 辉立证券辉立 78.0100M
3 老虎国际老虎 53.8100M
4 华泰国际华泰 30.9100M
5 信诚证券信诚 10.0100M
6 华盛证券华盛 8.6100M
7 致富证券致富 8.5100M
8 TradeGo MarketsTradeGo 5.7100M
9 盈立证券盈立 5.6100M
Margin multiple
TimeMultiple
2026-06-18T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-18T10:08:40+08:000.00015592110392141577
2026-06-18T10:08:46+08:000.0012473688313713262
2026-06-18T10:48:50+08:000.45575738676229827
2026-06-18T11:19:39+08:000.45684883448974817
2026-06-18T11:22:23+08:000.45871988773680517
2026-06-18T11:24:46+08:000.459031729944648
2026-06-18T11:26:01+08:000.48241989553286035
2026-06-18T12:16:37+08:000.4828096982926639
2026-06-18T12:19:15+08:000.49208700397598815
2026-06-18T12:20:04+08:000.4926327278397131
2026-06-18T12:23:30+08:001.007172370780385
2026-06-18T14:06:31+08:001.0075621735401887
2026-06-18T14:06:35+08:001.0079519762999922
2026-06-18T14:10:40+08:001.008575660715678
2026-06-18T14:10:42+08:001.0130194121774383
2026-06-18T14:12:00+08:001.059795743353863
2026-06-18T14:12:04+08:001.1455523505106415
2026-06-18T14:15:30+08:001.145708271614563
2026-06-18T14:15:33+08:001.1459421532704452
2026-06-18T14:20:14+08:001.1491385359008341
2026-06-18T15:15:02+08:001.1503079441802448
2026-06-18T15:15:11+08:001.1503859047322056
2026-06-18T15:15:17+08:001.1506977469400483
2026-06-18T15:15:34+08:001.158493802136119
2026-06-18T15:56:39+08:001.236454354096827
2026-06-18T16:11:57+08:001.2368441568566306
2026-06-18T16:12:50+08:001.2370780385125126
2026-06-18T16:14:43+08:001.327746160442816
2026-06-18T16:17:23+08:001.4524830435799485
2026-06-18T16:18:03+08:001.4610587042956265
2026-06-18T17:47:46+08:001.476962656895611
2026-06-18T17:50:17+08:001.4849146331956031
2026-06-18T17:53:01+08:001.4860840414750136
2026-06-18T17:54:10+08:001.8135183597099866
2026-06-18T17:56:29+08:002.827005535199189
2026-06-18T18:14:09+08:002.8287206673423246
2026-06-18T18:14:24+08:002.8340999454276137
2026-06-18T18:14:30+08:002.850783503547205
2026-06-18T18:14:50+08:003.069073049037187
2026-06-18T18:17:13+08:003.1694082794106184
2026-06-18T20:29:47+08:003.1819599282762923
2026-06-18T20:31:21+08:003.200358618539019
2026-06-18T20:33:37+08:003.231153036563499
2026-06-18T20:36:30+08:003.270133312543853
2026-06-18T21:34:43+08:003.2715366024791455
2026-06-18T22:08:45+08:003.273797458486006
2026-06-18T22:11:08+08:003.7259686598581117
2026-06-19T09:18:25+08:004.037810867700943
2026-06-19T09:18:30+08:004.061199033289156
2026-06-19T09:21:47+08:004.06938489124503
2026-06-19T09:25:07+08:004.10345365245186
2026-06-19T09:32:32+08:004.221875730880175
2026-06-19T10:16:48+08:004.222109612536057
2026-06-19T10:19:12+08:004.229515864972324
2026-06-19T10:21:10+08:004.247524752475248
2026-06-19T10:24:36+08:004.263116862867389
2026-06-19T11:41:42+08:004.26436423169876
2026-06-19T11:43:46+08:004.264520152802682
2026-06-19T11:48:41+08:004.290091213845794
2026-06-19T11:50:10+08:004.282295158649723
2026-06-19T12:03:54+08:004.282529040305605
2026-06-19T12:11:50+08:004.283932330240898
2026-06-19T12:14:19+08:004.299524440633039
2026-06-19T14:16:51+08:004.299992203944804
2026-06-19T14:16:55+08:004.300148125048725
2026-06-19T14:21:24+08:004.300226085600686
2026-06-19T14:21:29+08:004.301317533328136
2026-06-19T14:25:37+08:004.302331020503625
2026-06-19T14:25:58+08:004.364699462072191
2026-06-19T14:26:01+08:004.380291572464333
2026-06-19T15:17:12+08:004.387541903796679
2026-06-19T15:17:55+08:004.3876978249006005
2026-06-19T15:19:05+08:004.388243548764326
2026-06-19T15:21:00+08:004.403835659156467
2026-06-19T17:11:04+08:004.403913619708428
2026-06-19T17:13:13+08:004.536446558041631
2026-06-19T17:13:17+08:004.653387385982692
2026-06-19T17:17:42+08:004.653621267638575
2026-06-19T17:19:55+08:004.654089030950339
2026-06-19T17:19:59+08:004.654478833710143
2026-06-19T22:50:21+08:004.665549232088563
2026-06-19T23:03:21+08:004.66625087705621
2026-06-19T23:04:03+08:004.666640679816013
2026-06-19T23:04:07+08:004.666796600919935
2026-06-19T23:20:25+08:004.81492164964528
2026-06-19T23:25:05+08:004.840180868480549
2026-06-20T10:20:03+08:004.840180868480549
2026-06-20T10:22:52+08:004.840180868480549
2026-06-20T10:24:15+08:004.840882513448196
2026-06-20T10:25:48+08:004.844858501598192
2026-06-20T10:27:38+08:004.847041397053091
2026-06-20T10:33:04+08:005.073126997739144
2026-06-20T10:33:38+08:005.1744757152880645
2026-06-20T12:20:44+08:005.176112886879239
2026-06-20T12:23:23+08:005.198331644188041
2026-06-20T12:24:59+08:005.271458641927185
2026-06-20T12:27:18+08:006.487643252514228
2026-06-20T14:14:46+08:006.594916972012162
2026-06-20T14:16:55+08:006.604428159351368
2026-06-20T14:18:29+08:006.605051843767054
2026-06-20T14:19:53+08:006.877913775629532
2026-06-20T18:34:08+08:006.87884930225306
2026-06-20T18:36:10+08:006.87666640679816
2026-06-20T18:38:32+08:006.9498713650892645
2026-06-20T18:41:15+08:007.168160910579247
2026-06-20T18:41:43+08:007.285101738520309
2026-06-20T20:12:43+08:007.28525765962423
2026-06-20T20:13:36+08:007.285647462384033
2026-06-20T20:15:16+08:007.286037265143837
2026-06-20T20:18:48+08:007.434162313869182
2026-06-20T21:10:12+08:007.434785998284868
2026-06-20T22:08:07+08:007.498401808684806
2026-06-20T22:09:45+08:007.646526857410151
2026-06-21T09:59:42+08:007.740859125282607
2026-06-21T09:59:57+08:007.740859125282607
2026-06-21T10:00:04+08:007.743665705153193
2026-06-21T10:00:19+08:008.648008107897404
2026-06-21T10:00:27+08:008.648943634520933
2026-06-21T10:00:45+08:008.660871598970921
2026-06-21T10:00:53+08:008.660949559522882
2026-06-21T10:01:20+08:008.64535744913074
2026-06-21T10:01:30+08:008.647150541825836
2026-06-21T10:12:18+08:008.648008107897404
2026-06-21T10:12:39+08:008.757152880642394
2026-06-21T12:38:00+08:008.758322288921805
2026-06-21T12:38:03+08:008.769080845092383
2026-06-21T12:38:21+08:008.77095189833944
2026-06-21T12:38:24+08:008.772199267170812
2026-06-21T12:45:21+08:008.762766040383566
2026-06-21T12:45:24+08:008.820300927730568
2026-06-21T12:49:42+08:008.882669369299135
2026-06-21T12:49:48+08:008.968425976455913
2026-06-21T13:06:24+08:008.968659858111796
2026-06-21T13:07:09+08:008.972713806813752
2026-06-21T13:07:46+08:008.991736181492165
2026-06-21T13:09:32+08:009.061900678256801
2026-06-21T15:49:04+08:009.062368441568566
2026-06-21T15:51:40+08:009.063537849847977
2026-06-21T15:53:15+08:009.159741170967491
2026-06-21T15:55:08+08:009.378030716457472
2026-06-21T18:32:06+08:009.379745848600608
2026-06-21T18:35:11+08:009.414828096982927
2026-06-21T18:36:14+08:009.474234037576986
2026-06-21T18:37:57+08:0010.40976066110548
2026-06-21T20:07:53+08:0010.498012005925002
2026-06-21T20:09:16+08:0010.510329773134794
2026-06-21T20:10:10+08:0010.510485694238715
2026-06-21T20:11:24+08:0010.728775239728698
2026-06-21T21:06:06+08:0010.73228346456693
2026-06-21T22:09:10+08:0011.507133390504405
2026-06-21T22:10:35+08:0011.536134715833787
2026-06-21T22:11:14+08:0011.536758400249473
2026-06-21T22:12:28+08:0011.723863724955173
2026-06-21T22:12:35+08:0011.99672565681765
2026-06-22T09:17:11+08:0012.014890465424495
2026-06-22T09:17:22+08:0012.014890465424495
2026-06-22T09:17:28+08:0012.014890465424495
2026-06-22T09:17:35+08:0012.05613159741171
2026-06-22T09:17:46+08:0012.313401418882046
2026-06-22T09:17:52+08:0012.314648787713416
2026-06-22T09:17:58+08:0012.322912606221252
2026-06-22T09:18:11+08:0012.332891556872223
2026-06-22T09:18:17+08:0012.538629453496531
2026-06-22T09:18:35+08:0012.858267716535433
2026-06-22T09:18:42+08:0013.27847509160365
2026-06-22T10:15:00+08:0013.285803383487956
2026-06-22T10:15:12+08:0013.392141576362361
2026-06-22T10:15:19+08:0013.552038668433772
2026-06-22T10:15:46+08:0014.409604740001559
2026-06-22T11:14:38+08:0014.413268885943712
2026-06-22T11:18:01+08:0014.53855149294457
2026-06-22T11:20:55+08:0014.551181102362206
2026-06-22T11:23:34+08:0015.704997271380682
2026-06-22T11:51:42+08:0015.705309113588525
2026-06-22T12:09:03+08:0015.705698916348327
2026-06-22T12:11:18+08:0015.72144694784439
2026-06-22T12:12:40+08:0015.692445622515008
2026-06-22T12:16:44+08:0016.02767599594605
2026-06-22T12:21:48+08:0016.030326654712717
2026-06-22T14:16:49+08:0016.10805332501754
2026-06-22T14:16:51+08:0016.067825680205814
2026-06-22T14:23:06+08:0016.457628440009355
2026-06-22T14:23:09+08:0017.1124970764793
2026-06-22T14:26:38+08:0017.120682934435177
2026-06-22T14:26:41+08:0017.12255398768223
2026-06-22T14:28:59+08:0017.12364543540968
2026-06-22T14:29:02+08:0017.949013799017695
2026-06-22T14:34:05+08:0018.499649177516176
2026-06-22T14:39:40+08:0020.339440243236922
2026-06-22T15:07:16+08:0021.041085210883292
2026-06-22T15:11:31+08:0021.073126997739145
2026-06-22T15:12:51+08:0021.09815233491853
2026-06-22T15:14:44+08:0021.13315662274889
2026-06-22T15:16:09+08:0021.549933733530832
2026-06-22T15:17:43+08:0022.3061510875497
2026-06-22T15:34:05+08:0022.30934747018009
2026-06-22T16:04:12+08:0022.427691588056444
2026-06-22T16:06:02+08:0022.430264286271147
2026-06-22T16:09:01+08:0022.59366960318079
2026-06-22T16:12:50+08:0022.594371248148438
2026-06-22T16:16:00+08:0024.20815467373509
2026-06-22T17:03:53+08:0024.809074608248228
2026-06-22T17:08:09+08:0026.86333515241288
2026-06-22T17:09:55+08:0037.34123333593202
2026-06-22T17:11:52+08:0037.37226163561238
2026-06-22T17:12:58+08:0037.76206439541592
2026-06-22T17:13:59+08:0037.76136275044827
2026-06-22T17:50:29+08:0037.76331176424729
2026-06-22T18:01:25+08:0037.892180556638344
2026-06-22T18:09:03+08:0039.84688547594917
2026-06-22T18:11:49+08:0040.33257971466438
2026-06-22T18:12:57+08:0049.453964294067205
2026-06-22T18:13:14+08:0049.486006080923055
2026-06-22T18:13:20+08:0050.44429718562407
2026-06-22T18:13:31+08:0055.05176580650191
2026-06-22T20:18:54+08:0055.02034770406174
2026-06-22T20:27:08+08:0055.59288999766118
2026-06-22T20:28:24+08:0056.026896390426444
2026-06-22T20:32:04+08:0058.11280891868714
2026-06-22T20:35:04+08:0066.83659468309035
2026-06-22T21:23:17+08:0067.12652997583223
2026-06-22T22:07:03+08:0067.07850627582444
2026-06-22T22:10:21+08:0070.04170889529898
2026-06-22T22:12:09+08:0081.64223902705231
2026-06-23T08:34:53+08:0081.65837686130818
2026-06-23T08:37:22+08:00114.95532860372651
2026-06-23T08:41:28+08:00116.43782645981133
2026-06-23T08:41:32+08:00121.69369299134638
2026-06-23T09:15:35+08:00121.72667030482576
2026-06-23T09:15:42+08:00122.77508380759336
2026-06-23T09:15:55+08:00124.95829110470102
2026-06-23T09:16:02+08:00126.0283776409137
2026-06-23T09:16:24+08:00133.29430108365167
2026-06-23T09:20:15+08:00133.29492476806735
2026-06-23T10:08:13+08:00133.29617213689872
2026-06-23T10:09:07+08:00135.47906759179855
2026-06-23T10:09:52+08:00135.6472285023778
2026-06-23T10:11:13+08:00135.84493646215014
2026-06-23T10:13:13+08:00137.17049972713806
2026-06-23T10:14:34+08:00148.6384969205582
2026-06-23T11:01:53+08:00148.63880876276605
2026-06-23T11:02:29+08:00148.68761206829345
2026-06-23T11:03:20+08:00148.96834801590396
2026-06-23T11:03:40+08:00148.99204802370002
2026-06-23T11:08:14+08:00157.67685351212288
2026-06-23T11:12:18+08:00158.16855071333904
2026-06-23T11:13:04+08:00160.89717003196384
2026-06-23T12:12:20+08:00162.33944024323694
2026-06-23T12:12:55+08:00162.62290481016606
2026-06-23T12:15:27+08:00162.76744367350122
2026-06-23T12:15:49+08:00162.81952132221096
2026-06-23T12:16:48+08:00164.0045217120137
2026-06-23T12:17:12+08:00164.16332735635768
2026-06-23T13:39:19+08:00164.95719965697356
2026-06-23T13:40:02+08:00164.96437202775397
2026-06-23T13:40:59+08:00165.00226085600687
2026-06-23T13:41:44+08:00165.93459109690497
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2026-06-23T13:53:00+08:00166.79371637951198
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2026-06-23T15:33:40+08:00178.21259842519686
2026-06-23T16:35:13+08:00178.30334450767913
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2026-06-23T16:40:40+08:00178.81835191393154
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2026-06-23T18:09:40+08:00186.00265065876667
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2026-06-23T18:13:12+08:00236.8069696733453
2026-06-23T18:14:56+08:00238.1987994074998
2026-06-23T18:16:29+08:00240.61557651828176
2026-06-23T20:15:10+08:00240.6156544788337
2026-06-23T20:15:23+08:00240.61573243938568
2026-06-23T20:15:50+08:00240.63124658922584
2026-06-23T20:18:13+08:00240.75902393388944
2026-06-23T20:19:16+08:00241.57628440009356
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2026-06-23T20:21:54+08:00250.61970842753567
2026-06-23T21:06:10+08:00250.62033211195134
2026-06-23T21:06:26+08:00250.84828876588446
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2026-06-23T22:07:29+08:00260.8335542215639
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2026-06-24T08:32:39+08:00300.6870663444297
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2026-06-24T08:35:57+08:00306.5702034770406
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2026-06-24T09:17:17+08:00311.81991112497076
2026-06-24T09:19:13+08:00312.9974273017853
2026-06-24T09:19:31+08:00313.3872300615888
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2026-06-24T10:06:52+08:00334.5492320885632
2026-06-24T10:08:35+08:00339.29796522959384
2026-06-24T10:10:36+08:00339.6678880486474
2026-06-24T10:11:07+08:00392.3614251188898
2026-06-24T10:44:54+08:00392.3621267638575
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2026-06-24T11:24:15+08:00403.74
TradeGo forecast multiple
TimeMultiple
Broker margin funds trend
TimeBrokerMargin funds
Pool A α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.56
Pool B α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.66
This model does not support allocation strategy adjustment

Actual vs Predicted Comparison

Using the actual oversubscription ratio 963.56x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.559, Pool B α=0.659) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier

Lots Subscription Amount (HKD) Actual Expected Lots Predicted Expected Lots Error

LogoAlebund-B Allotment Prediction Matrix

Rows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates guaranteed allotment (≥1 lot)

Pool A

Oversubscription
541.0x
Allocation Strategy
α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.56

Pool B

Oversubscription
541.0x
Allocation Strategy
α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.66
Offering Mechanism

Mechanism B

Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).

Allocation Strategy Coefficient α

α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].

  • α → 0: Per-capita allocation — regardless of lots subscribed, every allottee receives the same number of shares. More favorable to retail (small) applications.
  • α → 1: Proportional allocation — allotted shares are proportional to lots subscribed. More favorable to large applications.
  • Historical actual α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0. α varies widely across IPOs, reflecting each issuer's allocation strategy.
Allotment Rate Definition

The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").

Expected Allotment Lots

Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier

Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.

// About this page //

This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Alebund-B (09637): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 10,897 allotment-tier records across 356 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation).
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.

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Cibo — HK IPO Allotment Forecasts, Allottee Profiling & Stock Connect