Ligent 09856Expected Lots
Ligent (09856) Expected Lots
| Rank | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  辉立 |
59.0100M |
| 2 |  富途 |
52.4100M |
| 3 |  老虎 |
17.1100M |
| 4 |  盈立 |
5.9100M |
| 5 |  复星 |
5.6100M |
| 7 |  华泰 |
4.5100M |
| 8 |  信诚 |
2.0100M |
| 9 |  东证 |
1.8100M |
| 10 |  致富 |
1.7100M |
| 11 |  华盛 |
1.5100M |
| 12 |  长桥 |
1.5100M |
| 13 |  熊猫 |
1.4100M |
| 14 |  艾德 |
390310K |
| 15 |  兴证 |
278710K |
| 16 |  TradeGo |
205110K |
| 17 |  盈宝 |
92410K |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-14T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2026-09-14T10:07:02+08:00 | 0.009894877945534076 |
| 2026-09-14T10:07:08+08:00 | 0.15015168618597433 |
| 2026-09-14T10:07:15+08:00 | 0.15320304783406236 |
| 2026-09-14T10:07:21+08:00 | 0.34369267673204457 |
| 2026-09-14T11:00:59+08:00 | 0.357150416255115 |
| 2026-09-14T11:01:38+08:00 | 0.3635706222661211 |
| 2026-09-14T11:06:09+08:00 | 0.37910963736418796 |
| 2026-09-14T11:06:12+08:00 | 0.4079300126993086 |
| 2026-09-14T11:06:15+08:00 | 0.4374735431070975 |
| 2026-09-14T11:06:17+08:00 | 0.45777479892761397 |
| 2026-09-14T11:06:20+08:00 | 1.094504021447721 |
| 2026-09-14T12:13:06+08:00 | 1.2837942712007901 |
| 2026-09-14T12:13:29+08:00 | 1.2839000987724 |
| 2026-09-14T12:13:47+08:00 | 1.3350500917172288 |
| 2026-09-14T12:14:11+08:00 | 1.360572174403838 |
| 2026-09-14T12:14:28+08:00 | 1.378315930577113 |
| 2026-09-14T12:14:53+08:00 | 1.3906624805982786 |
| 2026-09-14T12:15:17+08:00 | 1.8739417242839 |
| 2026-09-14T12:15:42+08:00 | 1.896482997036828 |
| 2026-09-14T13:42:46+08:00 | 1.907171581769437 |
| 2026-09-14T13:43:00+08:00 | 1.9146147876393396 |
| 2026-09-14T13:43:03+08:00 | 1.9308064060956682 |
| 2026-09-14T13:43:06+08:00 | 1.9567341611401157 |
| 2026-09-14T13:43:09+08:00 | 1.9782877098913503 |
| 2026-09-14T13:43:12+08:00 | 1.9794694511076618 |
| 2026-09-14T13:43:14+08:00 | 2.1681952871454775 |
| 2026-09-14T13:51:24+08:00 | 2.2563849301538026 |
| 2026-09-14T14:12:24+08:00 | 2.2900380979257795 |
| 2026-09-14T14:12:28+08:00 | 2.3088048539579513 |
| 2026-09-14T14:12:30+08:00 | 2.3374841258642585 |
| 2026-09-14T14:12:32+08:00 | 2.363941018766756 |
| 2026-09-14T14:12:35+08:00 | 2.3927613941018766 |
| 2026-09-14T14:12:38+08:00 | 2.403273599548469 |
| 2026-09-14T14:12:41+08:00 | 2.980033864822915 |
| 2026-09-14T14:14:47+08:00 | 3.0673768872583604 |
| 2026-09-14T15:15:38+08:00 | 3.1217193452800904 |
| 2026-09-14T15:15:41+08:00 | 3.1221779314237335 |
| 2026-09-14T15:15:43+08:00 | 3.12214265556653 |
| 2026-09-14T15:15:46+08:00 | 3.1516861859743193 |
| 2026-09-14T15:15:49+08:00 | 3.1526209961902074 |
| 2026-09-14T15:15:51+08:00 | 3.1686362353605193 |
| 2026-09-14T15:15:54+08:00 | 3.3979293071821646 |
| 2026-09-14T16:02:49+08:00 | 3.4400486806829407 |
| 2026-09-14T16:03:31+08:00 | 3.455499506137999 |
| 2026-09-14T16:03:50+08:00 | 3.46049103993227 |
| 2026-09-14T16:03:59+08:00 | 3.4525716099901227 |
| 2026-09-14T16:04:18+08:00 | 3.4542119373500775 |
| 2026-09-14T16:04:25+08:00 | 3.4747072103852124 |
| 2026-09-14T16:06:01+08:00 | 3.57 |
| 2026-09-14T17:01:36+08:00 | 3.548222096796952 |
| 2026-09-14T17:01:50+08:00 | 3.549333286298857 |
| 2026-09-14T17:02:13+08:00 | 4.307764216170453 |
| 2026-09-14T17:25:06+08:00 | 4.3291061097784675 |
| 2026-09-14T17:25:22+08:00 | 4.3318576266403275 |
| 2026-09-14T17:25:38+08:00 | 4.353728658106392 |
| 2026-09-14T17:25:50+08:00 | 4.360078312402991 |
| 2026-09-14T17:26:09+08:00 | 4.46 |
| 2026-09-14T18:05:32+08:00 | 4.445675179906872 |
| 2026-09-14T18:05:39+08:00 | 4.47849936503457 |
| 2026-09-14T18:06:45+08:00 | 4.478957951178214 |
| 2026-09-14T18:06:57+08:00 | 4.483314519542825 |
| 2026-09-14T18:07:14+08:00 | 4.493667983632002 |
| 2026-09-14T18:07:28+08:00 | 4.494267673204459 |
| 2026-09-14T18:07:32+08:00 | 4.512769860307605 |
| 2026-09-14T18:07:48+08:00 | 4.555100888951602 |
| 2026-09-14T18:08:37+08:00 | 4.61302384647947 |
| 2026-09-14T19:56:05+08:00 | 4.620643431635389 |
| 2026-09-14T19:56:19+08:00 | 4.623059827853817 |
| 2026-09-14T19:56:29+08:00 | 4.667507407930013 |
| 2026-09-14T19:56:43+08:00 | 4.678654578806265 |
| 2026-09-14T19:56:52+08:00 | 4.675797234372795 |
| 2026-09-14T19:57:01+08:00 | 4.726947227317623 |
| 2026-09-14T20:12:38+08:00 | 4.727000141103429 |
| 2026-09-14T20:12:48+08:00 | 4.83273952307041 |
| 2026-09-14T20:13:23+08:00 | 4.846514745308311 |
| 2026-09-14T20:13:33+08:00 | 4.851788485960209 |
| 2026-09-14T20:13:40+08:00 | 4.913521236066036 |
| 2026-09-14T21:21:45+08:00 | 4.917436856215606 |
| 2026-09-14T21:21:56+08:00 | 4.920752786792719 |
| 2026-09-14T21:22:14+08:00 | 4.921087907436151 |
| 2026-09-14T21:22:24+08:00 | 4.932146888669394 |
| 2026-09-14T21:22:30+08:00 | 4.988588260194723 |
| 2026-09-14T22:07:19+08:00 | 5.053619302949062 |
| 2026-09-14T22:07:38+08:00 | 5.061873853534641 |
| 2026-09-14T22:07:49+08:00 | 5.062191336249471 |
| 2026-09-14T22:08:08+08:00 | 5.092175814872301 |
| 2026-09-15T08:38:51+08:00 | 5.232079864540708 |
| 2026-09-15T08:39:00+08:00 | 5.543230563002681 |
| 2026-09-15T08:39:29+08:00 | 5.54587625229293 |
| 2026-09-15T08:39:35+08:00 | 5.561185974319176 |
| 2026-09-15T08:40:00+08:00 | 6.12912727529279 |
| 2026-09-15T08:40:17+08:00 | 6.12912727529279 |
| 2026-09-15T09:04:58+08:00 | 6.159376322844645 |
| 2026-09-15T09:05:17+08:00 | 6.18505714688867 |
| 2026-09-15T09:05:32+08:00 | 6.2057111612812195 |
| 2026-09-15T09:05:43+08:00 | 6.208356850571469 |
| 2026-09-15T09:06:00+08:00 | 6.205093833780161 |
| 2026-09-15T09:06:15+08:00 | 6.282700719627487 |
| 2026-09-15T09:06:51+08:00 | 6.44 |
| 2026-09-15T10:22:23+08:00 | 6.389286722167348 |
| 2026-09-15T10:22:38+08:00 | 6.4048080993368135 |
| 2026-09-15T10:22:44+08:00 | 6.423486665725977 |
| 2026-09-15T10:22:52+08:00 | 6.466805418371666 |
| 2026-09-15T10:22:58+08:00 | 6.514427825596162 |
| 2026-09-15T10:23:02+08:00 | 6.78 |
| 2026-09-15T11:08:23+08:00 | 6.681705940454353 |
| 2026-09-15T11:08:28+08:00 | 6.689678284182306 |
| 2026-09-15T11:08:30+08:00 | 6.6935409905460705 |
| 2026-09-15T11:08:33+08:00 | 6.703700437420629 |
| 2026-09-15T11:08:36+08:00 | 6.724989417242839 |
| 2026-09-15T11:08:39+08:00 | 6.7320269507549035 |
| 2026-09-15T11:08:42+08:00 | 7.09 |
| 2026-09-15T12:07:49+08:00 | 7.1096726400451535 |
| 2026-09-15T12:08:00+08:00 | 7.115210949626076 |
| 2026-09-15T12:08:56+08:00 | 7.1290743615069845 |
| 2026-09-15T12:09:00+08:00 | 7.146430083251023 |
| 2026-09-15T12:09:05+08:00 | 7.163397770565825 |
| 2026-09-15T12:09:09+08:00 | 7.1634330464230285 |
| 2026-09-15T12:09:12+08:00 | 7.18029490616622 |
| 2026-09-15T12:09:16+08:00 | 7.32 |
| 2026-09-15T13:43:02+08:00 | 7.230368985466347 |
| 2026-09-15T13:43:05+08:00 | 7.234637364187949 |
| 2026-09-15T13:43:09+08:00 | 7.2381120361224776 |
| 2026-09-15T13:43:13+08:00 | 7.241181035699167 |
| 2026-09-15T13:43:15+08:00 | 7.241710173557218 |
| 2026-09-15T13:43:18+08:00 | 7.240651897841118 |
| 2026-09-15T13:43:21+08:00 | 7.45 |
| 2026-09-15T14:16:27+08:00 | 7.352053054889234 |
| 2026-09-15T14:16:30+08:00 | 7.370572879920982 |
| 2026-09-15T14:16:32+08:00 | 7.379215464935798 |
| 2026-09-15T14:16:35+08:00 | 7.385653308875406 |
| 2026-09-15T14:16:38+08:00 | 7.385300550303373 |
| 2026-09-15T14:16:40+08:00 | 7.41874206293213 |
| 2026-09-15T14:16:43+08:00 | 7.662145477635106 |
| 2026-09-15T14:17:42+08:00 | 7.84 |
| 2026-09-15T15:02:24+08:00 | 7.748712431212079 |
| 2026-09-15T15:02:40+08:00 | 7.749382672498942 |
| 2026-09-15T15:11:30+08:00 | 7.750758430929872 |
| 2026-09-15T15:11:46+08:00 | 7.752398758289827 |
| 2026-09-15T15:12:04+08:00 | 7.757795964441936 |
| 2026-09-15T15:12:15+08:00 | 7.76335191195146 |
| 2026-09-15T15:12:28+08:00 | 7.999700155213771 |
| 2026-09-15T15:14:02+08:00 | 8.37 |
| 2026-09-15T16:48:06+08:00 | 8.283617891914773 |
| 2026-09-15T16:48:36+08:00 | 8.287762805136165 |
| 2026-09-15T16:48:40+08:00 | 8.308469733314519 |
| 2026-09-15T16:48:43+08:00 | 8.311485819105405 |
| 2026-09-15T16:48:46+08:00 | 8.311591646677014 |
| 2026-09-15T16:48:48+08:00 | 8.317412163115563 |
| 2026-09-15T16:48:51+08:00 | 8.335050091717228 |
| 2026-09-15T16:50:52+08:00 | 8.47 |
| 2026-09-15T17:15:04+08:00 | 8.326495696345422 |
| 2026-09-15T17:15:08+08:00 | 8.328100747848172 |
| 2026-09-15T17:15:11+08:00 | 8.377786792719062 |
| 2026-09-15T17:15:14+08:00 | 8.377998447862282 |
| 2026-09-15T17:15:21+08:00 | 8.382231550726683 |
| 2026-09-15T17:15:24+08:00 | 8.38612953294765 |
| 2026-09-15T17:15:27+08:00 | 8.398476082968816 |
| 2026-09-15T17:17:27+08:00 | 9.05 |
| 2026-09-15T18:02:20+08:00 | 8.970209538591789 |
| 2026-09-15T18:04:48+08:00 | 8.969997883448567 |
| 2026-09-15T18:04:54+08:00 | 8.970527021306617 |
| 2026-09-15T18:05:06+08:00 | 8.969398193876112 |
| 2026-09-15T18:05:17+08:00 | 8.982115140397912 |
| 2026-09-15T18:06:09+08:00 | 8.995079017920135 |
| 2026-09-15T18:06:14+08:00 | 8.995625793706788 |
| 2026-09-15T18:06:28+08:00 | 9.18 |
| 2026-09-15T19:56:01+08:00 | 9.033388598842953 |
| 2026-09-15T19:56:10+08:00 | 9.034305771130239 |
| 2026-09-15T19:56:19+08:00 | 9.07055171440666 |
| 2026-09-15T19:56:41+08:00 | 9.06737688725836 |
| 2026-09-15T19:56:50+08:00 | 9.06959926626217 |
| 2026-09-15T19:57:04+08:00 | 9.249506137999154 |
| 2026-09-15T20:21:37+08:00 | 9.24661351770848 |
| 2026-09-15T20:21:47+08:00 | 9.249541413856356 |
| 2026-09-15T20:22:05+08:00 | 9.249594327642162 |
| 2026-09-15T20:22:16+08:00 | 9.254409482150416 |
| 2026-09-15T20:22:39+08:00 | 9.43 |
| 2026-09-15T21:36:44+08:00 | 9.304836320022577 |
| 2026-09-15T21:36:54+08:00 | 9.30857556088613 |
| 2026-09-15T21:37:13+08:00 | 9.30899887117257 |
| 2026-09-15T21:37:18+08:00 | 9.315860025398617 |
| 2026-09-15T21:37:30+08:00 | 9.31409623253845 |
| 2026-09-15T22:04:47+08:00 | 9.33527938478905 |
| 2026-09-15T22:05:06+08:00 | 9.33718428107803 |
| 2026-09-15T22:05:19+08:00 | 9.34057076336955 |
| 2026-09-15T22:05:30+08:00 | 9.59 |
| 2026-09-16T08:37:30+08:00 | 9.453453506420207 |
| 2026-09-16T08:38:27+08:00 | 9.422534217581488 |
| 2026-09-16T08:38:40+08:00 | 9.433099336813884 |
| 2026-09-16T08:38:43+08:00 | 9.435886129532948 |
| 2026-09-16T08:38:46+08:00 | 9.424209820798646 |
| 2026-09-16T08:38:50+08:00 | 9.538856356709468 |
| 2026-09-16T09:07:02+08:00 | 9.63856356709468 |
| 2026-09-16T09:07:54+08:00 | 9.655813461267108 |
| 2026-09-16T09:07:57+08:00 | 10.16230421899252 |
| 2026-09-16T09:08:00+08:00 | 10.185427543389304 |
| 2026-09-16T09:08:03+08:00 | 10.185392267532102 |
| 2026-09-16T09:08:06+08:00 | 10.208321574714265 |
| 2026-09-16T09:10:07+08:00 | 10.148211514039792 |
| 2026-09-16T10:13:39+08:00 | 10.184598560745027 |
| 2026-09-16T10:13:45+08:00 | 10.188743473966417 |
| 2026-09-16T10:13:52+08:00 | 10.349760124171018 |
| 2026-09-16T10:14:09+08:00 | 10.369338224918865 |
| 2026-09-16T10:14:12+08:00 | 10.367609707915902 |
| 2026-09-16T10:14:15+08:00 | 10.371631155637083 |
| 2026-09-16T10:14:18+08:00 | 10.906060392267532 |
| 2026-09-16T11:09:37+08:00 | 10.912974460279385 |
| 2026-09-16T11:09:41+08:00 | 10.92140539015098 |
| 2026-09-16T11:09:44+08:00 | 11.05912233667278 |
| 2026-09-16T11:09:47+08:00 | 11.077624523775928 |
| 2026-09-16T11:09:50+08:00 | 11.098402003668689 |
| 2026-09-16T11:09:53+08:00 | 11.354151968392832 |
| 2026-09-16T12:00:40+08:00 | 11.496313672922252 |
| 2026-09-16T12:00:55+08:00 | 11.52795611683364 |
| 2026-09-16T12:17:30+08:00 | 11.544747424862424 |
| 2026-09-16T12:17:33+08:00 | 11.574749541413857 |
| 2026-09-16T12:17:36+08:00 | 11.584027091858331 |
| 2026-09-16T12:17:39+08:00 | 11.58644348807676 |
| 2026-09-16T12:17:42+08:00 | 11.59713207280937 |
| 2026-09-16T12:17:45+08:00 | 12.47 |
| 2026-09-16T13:39:43+08:00 | 12.151933116974742 |
| 2026-09-16T13:39:46+08:00 | 12.157171581769436 |
| 2026-09-16T13:39:52+08:00 | 12.181494285311134 |
| 2026-09-16T13:39:54+08:00 | 12.213789332580781 |
| 2026-09-16T13:39:57+08:00 | 12.224354451813179 |
| 2026-09-16T13:40:01+08:00 | 12.333709609143503 |
| 2026-09-16T13:40:03+08:00 | 12.64 |
| 2026-09-16T14:15:37+08:00 | 12.397188514180895 |
| 2026-09-16T14:15:40+08:00 | 12.401739099760125 |
| 2026-09-16T14:15:43+08:00 | 12.450084662057288 |
| 2026-09-16T14:15:47+08:00 | 12.446486524622548 |
| 2026-09-16T14:16:14+08:00 | 12.445692817835473 |
| 2026-09-16T14:16:16+08:00 | 12.454423592493297 |
| 2026-09-16T14:16:19+08:00 | 12.724283900098772 |
| 2026-09-16T14:17:11+08:00 | 13.21 |
| 2026-09-16T15:10:36+08:00 | 12.922410752081275 |
| 2026-09-16T15:10:40+08:00 | 12.930929871595879 |
| 2026-09-16T15:10:44+08:00 | 12.972696486524622 |
| 2026-09-16T15:10:47+08:00 | 12.998148017496826 |
| 2026-09-16T15:10:50+08:00 | 12.999841258642585 |
| 2026-09-16T15:10:53+08:00 | 13.001411034288132 |
| 2026-09-16T15:10:55+08:00 | 13.23 |
| 2026-09-16T16:25:11+08:00 | 12.945622266121067 |
| 2026-09-16T16:25:13+08:00 | 12.94756243826725 |
| 2026-09-16T16:25:16+08:00 | 12.950507972343727 |
| 2026-09-16T16:25:19+08:00 | 13.409288133201636 |
| 2026-09-16T16:25:22+08:00 | 13.441336249470861 |
| 2026-09-16T16:25:24+08:00 | 13.513651756737689 |
| 2026-09-16T16:25:30+08:00 | 13.84 |
| 2026-09-16T17:04:43+08:00 | 13.629356568364612 |
| 2026-09-16T17:04:46+08:00 | 13.639833497954001 |
| 2026-09-16T17:04:48+08:00 | 13.716505573585438 |
| 2026-09-16T17:04:51+08:00 | 13.737529984478623 |
| 2026-09-16T17:05:23+08:00 | 14.23 |
| 2026-09-16T17:48:41+08:00 | 17.9 |
| 2026-09-16T18:23:54+08:00 | 17.53772752927896 |
| 2026-09-16T18:23:59+08:00 | 17.68147664738253 |
| 2026-09-16T18:24:10+08:00 | 17.6885670946804 |
| 2026-09-16T18:24:20+08:00 | 17.72096796952166 |
| 2026-09-16T18:24:29+08:00 | 17.72710596867504 |
| 2026-09-16T18:24:55+08:00 | 17.799421475941866 |
| 2026-09-16T18:25:52+08:00 | 18.29 |
| 2026-09-16T20:38:38+08:00 | 17.959979540002823 |
| 2026-09-16T20:38:48+08:00 | 17.965323832369126 |
| 2026-09-16T20:38:58+08:00 | 17.9650416255115 |
| 2026-09-16T20:39:03+08:00 | 17.972167348666574 |
| 2026-09-16T20:39:16+08:00 | 18.197932834767887 |
| 2026-09-16T20:39:21+08:00 | 18.19616904190772 |
| 2026-09-16T20:39:31+08:00 | 18.213172005079723 |
| 2026-09-16T20:39:36+08:00 | 18.211902074220404 |
| 2026-09-16T20:39:53+08:00 | 18.293036545788063 |
| 2026-09-16T21:39:16+08:00 | 18.303107803019614 |
| 2026-09-16T21:39:25+08:00 | 18.35690348525469 |
| 2026-09-16T21:39:35+08:00 | 18.363517708480316 |
| 2026-09-16T21:39:54+08:00 | 18.50814872301397 |
| 2026-09-16T22:07:00+08:00 | 18.413926908423875 |
| 2026-09-16T22:07:10+08:00 | 18.442782559616198 |
| 2026-09-16T22:07:31+08:00 | 18.47629462395936 |
| 2026-09-17T08:32:36+08:00 | 18.43556864681812 |
| 2026-09-17T08:32:39+08:00 | 18.43556864681812 |
| 2026-09-17T08:32:49+08:00 | 18.89311415267391 |
| 2026-09-17T08:32:56+08:00 | 19.847326090023987 |
| 2026-09-17T09:10:35+08:00 | 19.892020601100608 |
| 2026-09-17T09:10:38+08:00 | 19.94331169747425 |
| 2026-09-17T09:10:41+08:00 | 19.970791590235642 |
| 2026-09-17T09:10:47+08:00 | 20.17891914773529 |
| 2026-09-17T09:12:25+08:00 | 20.342846056159164 |
| 2026-09-17T10:18:01+08:00 | 20.68031254409482 |
| 2026-09-17T10:18:12+08:00 | 21.470491745449415 |
| 2026-09-17T10:18:24+08:00 | 26.93824961196557 |
| 2026-09-17T11:14:14+08:00 | 27.41 |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|
| Time | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|
Using the actual oversubscription ratio 35.16x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.590, Pool B α=0.690) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier
| Lots | Subscription Amount (HKD) | Actual Expected Lots | Predicted Expected Lots | Error |
|---|
Ligent Allotment Prediction MatrixRows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates guaranteed allotment (≥1 lot)
Mechanism B
Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).
α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].
The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").
Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier
Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.
This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Ligent (09856): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 10,897 allotment-tier records across 356 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation).
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.
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