Longsys 09976Expected Lots
Longsys (09976) Expected Lots
| Rank | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
61.6100M |
| 2 |  辉立 |
49.1100M |
| 3 |  老虎 |
17.3100M |
| 4 |  华泰 |
10.5100M |
| 5 |  盈立 |
8.2100M |
| 7 |  复星 |
5.9100M |
| 8 |  信诚 |
5.0100M |
| 9 |  致富 |
3.4100M |
| 10 |  熊猫 |
2.7100M |
| 11 |  长桥 |
2.4100M |
| 12 |  华盛 |
2.3100M |
| 13 |  东证 |
896110K |
| 14 |  艾德 |
543510K |
| 15 |  兴证 |
246310K |
| 16 |  TradeGo |
186010K |
| 17 |  盈宝 |
179110K |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-31T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2026-08-31T10:08:01+08:00 | 0.10646436312635471 |
| 2026-08-31T10:08:07+08:00 | 0.267770623485911 |
| 2026-08-31T10:08:13+08:00 | 0.29150197628458496 |
| 2026-08-31T10:08:22+08:00 | 0.30265842152237665 |
| 2026-08-31T10:08:30+08:00 | 0.34 |
| 2026-08-31T10:32:35+08:00 | 0.7954386076756343 |
| 2026-08-31T11:26:04+08:00 | 0.8309798546474564 |
| 2026-08-31T11:26:21+08:00 | 0.8451644778783629 |
| 2026-08-31T11:26:39+08:00 | 0.8708880530409282 |
| 2026-08-31T11:26:49+08:00 | 1.3254335075863828 |
| 2026-08-31T11:26:58+08:00 | 1.3917346678566875 |
| 2026-08-31T11:27:21+08:00 | 1.3963247481830932 |
| 2026-08-31T11:27:40+08:00 | 1.4170757363253856 |
| 2026-08-31T11:27:56+08:00 | 1.57 |
| 2026-08-31T12:21:16+08:00 | 1.6117557057248502 |
| 2026-08-31T12:21:26+08:00 | 1.659569042458243 |
| 2026-08-31T12:21:47+08:00 | 1.6987281652428918 |
| 2026-08-31T12:22:07+08:00 | 1.6992062986102257 |
| 2026-08-31T12:22:34+08:00 | 1.70166071656254 |
| 2026-08-31T12:22:50+08:00 | 1.761809894173148 |
| 2026-08-31T12:23:45+08:00 | 1.7687268902205788 |
| 2026-08-31T12:24:14+08:00 | 2.06 |
| 2026-08-31T13:41:43+08:00 | 2.0651695779676142 |
| 2026-08-31T13:42:11+08:00 | 2.066827106974372 |
| 2026-08-31T13:42:42+08:00 | 2.082191125844702 |
| 2026-08-31T13:43:03+08:00 | 2.098798291470101 |
| 2026-08-31T13:43:27+08:00 | 2.2820827489481066 |
| 2026-08-31T13:43:43+08:00 | 2.32 |
| 2026-08-31T14:04:31+08:00 | 2.373374346551065 |
| 2026-08-31T14:04:47+08:00 | 2.3829688894555656 |
| 2026-08-31T14:05:07+08:00 | 2.38303264057121 |
| 2026-08-31T14:05:17+08:00 | 2.5048291470100725 |
| 2026-08-31T14:05:43+08:00 | 2.523508223893918 |
| 2026-08-31T14:05:59+08:00 | 2.524416677291853 |
| 2026-08-31T14:06:12+08:00 | 2.6519189085809 |
| 2026-08-31T14:07:04+08:00 | 2.73 |
| 2026-08-31T15:13:25+08:00 | 2.776887033023078 |
| 2026-08-31T15:13:41+08:00 | 2.788935993879893 |
| 2026-08-31T15:13:57+08:00 | 2.8121413999744997 |
| 2026-08-31T15:14:15+08:00 | 2.8128426622465894 |
| 2026-08-31T15:14:30+08:00 | 2.8854233074078794 |
| 2026-08-31T15:14:42+08:00 | 2.9233233456585492 |
| 2026-08-31T15:15:04+08:00 | 3.0380753538186918 |
| 2026-08-31T15:16:17+08:00 | 3.05 |
| 2026-08-31T16:54:40+08:00 | 3.0897296952696673 |
| 2026-08-31T16:54:58+08:00 | 3.1065599897998215 |
| 2026-08-31T16:55:13+08:00 | 3.120250541884483 |
| 2026-08-31T16:55:23+08:00 | 3.2073505036338137 |
| 2026-08-31T16:55:44+08:00 | 3.2129287262527093 |
| 2026-08-31T16:56:18+08:00 | 3.6161545327043223 |
| 2026-08-31T16:56:41+08:00 | 3.642515619023333 |
| 2026-08-31T17:00:14+08:00 | 3.677833737090399 |
| 2026-08-31T17:00:48+08:00 | 3.709709294912661 |
| 2026-08-31T17:01:40+08:00 | 3.73576756343236 |
| 2026-08-31T17:07:43+08:00 | 3.818404947086574 |
| 2026-08-31T17:08:04+08:00 | 3.8667920438607677 |
| 2026-08-31T17:08:29+08:00 | 3.8812954226698966 |
| 2026-08-31T17:08:47+08:00 | 3.8907624633431084 |
| 2026-08-31T17:09:01+08:00 | 4.0740469208211145 |
| 2026-08-31T17:09:13+08:00 | 4.13 |
| 2026-08-31T17:47:48+08:00 | 5.41 |
| 2026-08-31T18:09:23+08:00 | 5.395846614815759 |
| 2026-08-31T18:10:06+08:00 | 5.42700497258702 |
| 2026-08-31T18:10:10+08:00 | 5.566444600280505 |
| 2026-08-31T18:10:23+08:00 | 5.590717837562157 |
| 2026-08-31T18:10:51+08:00 | 5.617015172765523 |
| 2026-08-31T18:11:08+08:00 | 5.619517404054571 |
| 2026-08-31T18:11:22+08:00 | 5.648492286115007 |
| 2026-08-31T18:11:48+08:00 | 5.723399846997323 |
| 2026-08-31T18:12:52+08:00 | 6.305033150580135 |
| 2026-08-31T21:04:09+08:00 | 6.3071688129542265 |
| 2026-08-31T21:05:05+08:00 | 6.313751115644524 |
| 2026-08-31T21:05:51+08:00 | 6.372752773173531 |
| 2026-08-31T21:06:32+08:00 | 6.381916996047431 |
| 2026-08-31T21:07:00+08:00 | 6.3913362233839095 |
| 2026-08-31T21:07:33+08:00 | 6.534776233584088 |
| 2026-08-31T21:07:49+08:00 | 6.576214458753028 |
| 2026-08-31T21:08:00+08:00 | 6.498119342088486 |
| 2026-08-31T22:04:31+08:00 | 6.5111245696799696 |
| 2026-08-31T22:04:52+08:00 | 6.515300267754686 |
| 2026-08-31T22:05:08+08:00 | 6.525181690679587 |
| 2026-08-31T22:05:27+08:00 | 6.606464363126355 |
| 2026-09-01T08:36:53+08:00 | 6.632793573887543 |
| 2026-09-01T08:37:02+08:00 | 6.84470228228994 |
| 2026-09-01T08:38:22+08:00 | 6.846630753538187 |
| 2026-09-01T08:38:32+08:00 | 6.8761315823026905 |
| 2026-09-01T08:38:49+08:00 | 6.8761315823026905 |
| 2026-09-01T08:39:03+08:00 | 7.53 |
| 2026-09-01T09:03:37+08:00 | 7.525468570699987 |
| 2026-09-01T09:04:01+08:00 | 7.579959836797144 |
| 2026-09-01T09:04:13+08:00 | 7.580055463470611 |
| 2026-09-01T09:04:23+08:00 | 7.595945429045008 |
| 2026-09-01T09:04:47+08:00 | 7.642818436822645 |
| 2026-09-01T09:05:03+08:00 | 7.665752900675762 |
| 2026-09-01T09:05:18+08:00 | 7.7597857962514345 |
| 2026-09-01T09:06:47+08:00 | 7.93 |
| 2026-09-01T10:11:20+08:00 | 8.17066173658039 |
| 2026-09-01T10:11:39+08:00 | 8.270735050363381 |
| 2026-09-01T10:11:54+08:00 | 8.280090526584216 |
| 2026-09-01T10:12:10+08:00 | 8.303742190488334 |
| 2026-09-01T10:12:24+08:00 | 8.485432870075226 |
| 2026-09-01T10:12:52+08:00 | 8.493529261762081 |
| 2026-09-01T10:13:33+08:00 | 8.6 |
| 2026-09-01T10:18:55+08:00 | 8.5257713884993 |
| 2026-09-01T10:45:29+08:00 | 8.543207318628076 |
| 2026-09-01T11:17:25+08:00 | 8.57694759658294 |
| 2026-09-01T11:17:35+08:00 | 8.615740150452632 |
| 2026-09-01T11:17:56+08:00 | 8.6164095371669 |
| 2026-09-01T11:18:19+08:00 | 8.644380339155935 |
| 2026-09-01T11:18:35+08:00 | 8.677546857069999 |
| 2026-09-01T11:19:09+08:00 | 8.703796378936632 |
| 2026-09-01T11:19:32+08:00 | 9.019364401377024 |
| 2026-09-01T11:19:40+08:00 | 9.1 |
| 2026-09-01T12:11:50+08:00 | 9.047287390029325 |
| 2026-09-01T12:12:10+08:00 | 9.05410875940329 |
| 2026-09-01T12:12:21+08:00 | 9.097411704704832 |
| 2026-09-01T12:12:42+08:00 | 9.114369501466276 |
| 2026-09-01T12:12:57+08:00 | 9.117222363891369 |
| 2026-09-01T12:13:27+08:00 | 9.132395129414764 |
| 2026-09-01T12:13:59+08:00 | 9.45 |
| 2026-09-01T13:43:19+08:00 | 9.296602065536147 |
| 2026-09-01T13:43:41+08:00 | 9.311695142164988 |
| 2026-09-01T13:43:53+08:00 | 9.311742955501721 |
| 2026-09-01T13:44:09+08:00 | 9.331840494708658 |
| 2026-09-01T13:44:32+08:00 | 9.437029835522122 |
| 2026-09-01T13:44:49+08:00 | 9.44123740915466 |
| 2026-09-01T13:45:14+08:00 | 9.63 |
| 2026-09-01T14:02:48+08:00 | 9.477193038378172 |
| 2026-09-01T14:03:13+08:00 | 9.553503123804667 |
| 2026-09-01T14:03:40+08:00 | 9.56623740915466 |
| 2026-09-01T14:04:03+08:00 | 9.577999489991075 |
| 2026-09-01T14:04:17+08:00 | 9.590446895320667 |
| 2026-09-01T14:04:36+08:00 | 9.590526584215224 |
| 2026-09-01T14:05:28+08:00 | 9.697963151855157 |
| 2026-09-01T14:06:31+08:00 | 10.04 |
| 2026-09-01T15:15:51+08:00 | 9.88939181435675 |
| 2026-09-01T15:16:07+08:00 | 9.897918526074207 |
| 2026-09-01T15:16:22+08:00 | 9.906588677801862 |
| 2026-09-01T15:16:34+08:00 | 9.900723575162566 |
| 2026-09-01T15:16:57+08:00 | 9.909680606910621 |
| 2026-09-01T15:17:12+08:00 | 9.938352671171746 |
| 2026-09-01T15:17:37+08:00 | 10.23 |
| 2026-09-01T15:51:00+08:00 | 10.05524034170598 |
| 2026-09-01T16:03:00+08:00 | 10.062348591100344 |
| 2026-09-01T16:03:19+08:00 | 10.089793446385311 |
| 2026-09-01T16:03:39+08:00 | 10.12018679076884 |
| 2026-09-01T16:04:00+08:00 | 10.149321050618386 |
| 2026-09-01T16:04:14+08:00 | 10.15697118449573 |
| 2026-09-01T16:04:30+08:00 | 10.174152110161927 |
| 2026-09-01T16:08:35+08:00 | 10.57 |
| 2026-09-01T17:05:20+08:00 | 10.420247354328701 |
| 2026-09-01T17:05:34+08:00 | 10.434941986484764 |
| 2026-09-01T17:05:46+08:00 | 10.502422542394491 |
| 2026-09-01T17:06:09+08:00 | 10.531811806706617 |
| 2026-09-01T17:06:19+08:00 | 10.543860767563432 |
| 2026-09-01T17:06:40+08:00 | 10.560404182073187 |
| 2026-09-01T17:06:51+08:00 | 10.56075481320923 |
| 2026-09-01T17:07:05+08:00 | 10.752008160142802 |
| 2026-09-01T17:07:48+08:00 | 11.44 |
| 2026-09-01T17:37:19+08:00 | 10.743736452887925 |
| 2026-09-01T17:37:37+08:00 | 11.540625398444472 |
| 2026-09-01T17:38:47+08:00 | 11.79 |
| 2026-09-01T18:08:26+08:00 | 11.582238939181435 |
| 2026-09-01T18:08:59+08:00 | 11.581649241361724 |
| 2026-09-01T18:09:03+08:00 | 11.616744230524034 |
| 2026-09-01T18:09:18+08:00 | 11.624075608823155 |
| 2026-09-01T18:09:27+08:00 | 11.632634196098431 |
| 2026-09-01T18:09:41+08:00 | 11.655218028815504 |
| 2026-09-01T18:09:50+08:00 | 11.749250924391177 |
| 2026-09-01T18:10:54+08:00 | 12.09 |
| 2026-09-01T19:56:38+08:00 | 11.870043350758639 |
| 2026-09-01T19:56:58+08:00 | 11.872434017595308 |
| 2026-09-01T19:57:03+08:00 | 11.907513068978707 |
| 2026-09-01T19:57:46+08:00 | 11.90612648221344 |
| 2026-09-01T19:57:57+08:00 | 11.90614241999235 |
| 2026-09-01T19:58:08+08:00 | 12.09 |
| 2026-09-01T20:22:22+08:00 | 12.072963151855157 |
| 2026-09-01T20:22:29+08:00 | 12.097363891368099 |
| 2026-09-01T20:23:00+08:00 | 12.099053295932679 |
| 2026-09-01T20:23:10+08:00 | 12.100089251561903 |
| 2026-09-01T20:23:24+08:00 | 12.43 |
| 2026-09-01T21:32:41+08:00 | 12.198106591865358 |
| 2026-09-01T21:32:45+08:00 | 12.210633686089507 |
| 2026-09-01T21:33:13+08:00 | 12.22110480683412 |
| 2026-09-01T21:33:29+08:00 | 12.258781716180033 |
| 2026-09-01T21:33:38+08:00 | 12.52972395766926 |
| 2026-09-01T22:07:07+08:00 | 12.64500191253347 |
| 2026-09-01T22:07:26+08:00 | 12.650643886268009 |
| 2026-09-01T22:07:41+08:00 | 12.663824429427516 |
| 2026-09-01T22:07:50+08:00 | 13.09 |
| 2026-09-02T08:37:13+08:00 | 12.849164860385057 |
| 2026-09-02T08:39:09+08:00 | 12.915179140634962 |
| 2026-09-02T08:39:37+08:00 | 12.934049470865741 |
| 2026-09-02T08:39:47+08:00 | 13.069440902715797 |
| 2026-09-02T08:40:21+08:00 | 13.069440902715797 |
| 2026-09-02T08:40:42+08:00 | 13.74042139487441 |
| 2026-09-02T09:21:00+08:00 | 13.854774958561775 |
| 2026-09-02T09:21:31+08:00 | 13.848957669259212 |
| 2026-09-02T09:21:55+08:00 | 13.87767754685707 |
| 2026-09-02T09:22:12+08:00 | 13.982723447660334 |
| 2026-09-02T09:23:07+08:00 | 14.186647328828254 |
| 2026-09-02T09:24:43+08:00 | 14.49265268392197 |
| 2026-09-02T09:25:08+08:00 | 14.44 |
| 2026-09-02T10:12:16+08:00 | 14.668557949764121 |
| 2026-09-02T10:12:35+08:00 | 14.669721407624634 |
| 2026-09-02T10:12:49+08:00 | 14.689563942368991 |
| 2026-09-02T10:13:06+08:00 | 14.727145225041438 |
| 2026-09-02T10:13:24+08:00 | 14.748772791023843 |
| 2026-09-02T10:14:10+08:00 | 14.98 |
| 2026-09-02T11:50:25+08:00 | 15.193962769348463 |
| 2026-09-02T11:51:00+08:00 | 15.209486166007904 |
| 2026-09-02T11:51:21+08:00 | 15.214235624123422 |
| 2026-09-02T11:51:44+08:00 | 15.21842725997705 |
| 2026-09-02T11:52:06+08:00 | 15.22617302052786 |
| 2026-09-02T11:52:12+08:00 | 15.536959709294912 |
| 2026-09-02T11:52:47+08:00 | 15.41 |
| 2026-09-02T12:09:28+08:00 | 15.589219686344512 |
| 2026-09-02T12:10:52+08:00 | 15.591674104296825 |
| 2026-09-02T12:11:21+08:00 | 15.629749458115517 |
| 2026-09-02T12:11:44+08:00 | 15.641033405584597 |
| 2026-09-02T12:11:55+08:00 | 15.728691189595818 |
| 2026-09-02T12:12:14+08:00 | 15.78 |
| 2026-09-02T13:43:14+08:00 | 15.761363636363637 |
| 2026-09-02T13:43:43+08:00 | 15.971343873517787 |
| 2026-09-02T13:44:04+08:00 | 15.974531429300013 |
| 2026-09-02T13:44:16+08:00 | 15.987058523524162 |
| 2026-09-02T13:44:32+08:00 | 15.990389519316588 |
| 2026-09-02T13:44:41+08:00 | 16.23 |
| 2026-09-02T14:13:45+08:00 | 16.02111755705725 |
| 2026-09-02T14:14:00+08:00 | 16.02153193930894 |
| 2026-09-02T14:14:12+08:00 | 16.03311870457733 |
| 2026-09-02T14:14:19+08:00 | 16.17177738110417 |
| 2026-09-02T14:14:39+08:00 | 16.170342981002168 |
| 2026-09-02T14:15:23+08:00 | 16.37 |
| 2026-09-02T15:46:22+08:00 | 16.280393344383526 |
| 2026-09-02T15:46:45+08:00 | 16.31821369373964 |
| 2026-09-02T15:46:54+08:00 | 16.3208753028178 |
| 2026-09-02T15:47:00+08:00 | 16.36782799948999 |
| 2026-09-02T15:47:15+08:00 | 16.377725360193804 |
| 2026-09-02T15:47:21+08:00 | 16.54 |
| 2026-09-02T16:12:27+08:00 | 16.544530154277698 |
| 2026-09-02T16:12:30+08:00 | 16.547175825576947 |
| 2026-09-02T16:12:33+08:00 | 16.780807726635217 |
| 2026-09-02T16:12:36+08:00 | 16.823250031875556 |
| 2026-09-02T16:12:40+08:00 | 16.826150707637385 |
| 2026-09-02T16:12:43+08:00 | 16.74 |
| 2026-09-02T16:33:34+08:00 | 17.07 |
| 2026-09-02T17:04:50+08:00 | 17.058156955246716 |
| 2026-09-02T17:04:53+08:00 | 17.068389009307662 |
| 2026-09-02T17:05:01+08:00 | 17.139057120999617 |
| 2026-09-02T17:05:03+08:00 | 17.142117174550556 |
| 2026-09-02T17:05:07+08:00 | 17.14387033023078 |
| 2026-09-02T17:05:14+08:00 | 20.17204832334566 |
| 2026-09-02T17:05:21+08:00 | 20.34 |
| 2026-09-02T18:07:48+08:00 | 20.39235624123422 |
| 2026-09-02T18:08:17+08:00 | 20.398874792808876 |
| 2026-09-02T18:08:23+08:00 | 20.444281524926687 |
| 2026-09-02T18:08:38+08:00 | 20.460219303837818 |
| 2026-09-02T18:08:43+08:00 | 20.46056993497386 |
| 2026-09-02T18:08:48+08:00 | 20.62951039143185 |
| 2026-09-02T18:09:36+08:00 | 20.89 |
| 2026-09-02T19:48:31+08:00 | 20.94799502741298 |
| 2026-09-02T19:48:46+08:00 | 20.947660334055847 |
| 2026-09-02T19:48:51+08:00 | 20.961191508351398 |
| 2026-09-02T19:49:07+08:00 | 20.963040290705088 |
| 2026-09-02T19:49:17+08:00 | 20.966785668749203 |
| 2026-09-02T19:49:22+08:00 | 21.135726125207192 |
| 2026-09-02T20:03:49+08:00 | 21.133431085043988 |
| 2026-09-02T20:03:53+08:00 | 21.155122402142037 |
| 2026-09-02T20:04:08+08:00 | 21.156859620043353 |
| 2026-09-02T20:04:17+08:00 | 21.158325895703175 |
| 2026-09-02T20:18:58+08:00 | 21.02 |
| 2026-09-02T21:32:45+08:00 | 21.026998597475455 |
| 2026-09-02T21:32:50+08:00 | 20.981049980874666 |
| 2026-09-02T21:33:04+08:00 | 21.002279102384293 |
| 2026-09-02T21:33:14+08:00 | 21.002358791278848 |
| 2026-09-02T21:33:19+08:00 | 21.203174805559097 |
| 2026-09-02T22:06:47+08:00 | 21.18698202218539 |
| 2026-09-02T22:07:01+08:00 | 21.218315695524673 |
| 2026-09-02T22:07:13+08:00 | 21.214012495218665 |
| 2026-09-02T22:07:18+08:00 | 21.4 |
| 2026-09-03T08:37:56+08:00 | 21.4819584342726 |
| 2026-09-03T08:38:04+08:00 | 21.854902460793063 |
| 2026-09-03T08:38:39+08:00 | 21.854743083003953 |
| 2026-09-03T08:38:54+08:00 | 21.883223893918142 |
| 2026-09-03T08:40:00+08:00 | 21.883223893918142 |
| 2026-09-03T08:40:10+08:00 | 23.011618640826214 |
| 2026-09-03T09:04:14+08:00 | 23.043047940838964 |
| 2026-09-03T09:04:35+08:00 | 23.06198202218539 |
| 2026-09-03T09:05:31+08:00 | 23.16589634068596 |
| 2026-09-03T09:05:33+08:00 | 23.16978515874028 |
| 2026-09-03T09:05:36+08:00 | 23.67023141654979 |
| 2026-09-03T09:11:15+08:00 | 23.79 |
| 2026-09-03T10:05:26+08:00 | 23.924359301287772 |
| 2026-09-03T10:06:52+08:00 | 24.42 |
| 2026-09-03T11:05:18+08:00 | 24.43910174678057 |
| 2026-09-03T11:05:34+08:00 | 24.44 |
| 2026-09-03T12:00:55+08:00 | 27.16 |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|
| Time | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|
Using the actual oversubscription ratio 40.32x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.604, Pool B α=0.704) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier
| Lots | Subscription Amount (HKD) | Actual Expected Lots | Predicted Expected Lots | Error |
|---|
Longsys Allotment Prediction MatrixRows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates guaranteed allotment (≥1 lot)
Mechanism B
Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).
α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].
The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").
Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier
Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.
This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Longsys (09976): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 10,897 allotment-tier records across 356 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation).
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.
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