Margin dynamics Margin multiple1351.77x Margin funds2831.5100M TradeGo forecast multiple1622.13x
Rank Broker Margin funds
1 富途证券富途 1752.7100M
2 辉立证券辉立 640.0100M
3 老虎国际老虎 263.1100M
4 华泰国际华泰 92.9100M
5 华盛证券华盛 39.0100M
6 盈立证券盈立 15.5100M
7 TradeGo MarketsTradeGo 10.2100M
8 长桥证券长桥 10.0100M
9 信诚证券信诚 5.0100M
Margin multiple
TimeMultiple
2025-12-31T06:00:00+08:000
2025-12-31T10:02:19+08:000.016661892485438746
2025-12-31T10:04:11+08:000.3720042012794806
2025-12-31T10:04:45+08:000.4339730736178745
2025-12-31T10:06:52+08:001.0593908144753175
2025-12-31T11:03:17+08:001.0596772653489928
2025-12-31T11:03:23+08:001.1527737992934213
2025-12-31T11:04:40+08:002.3294185047264393
2025-12-31T11:06:10+08:002.366943569177886
2025-12-31T11:07:41+08:002.5701804640504156
2025-12-31T11:08:19+08:006.637782870237754
2025-12-31T11:48:35+08:006.695073044972787
2025-12-31T12:03:02+08:006.701136255132245
2025-12-31T12:04:43+08:008.081399789936025
2025-12-31T12:05:49+08:008.289172156975079
2025-12-31T12:08:03+08:0012.881934498233553
2025-12-31T13:43:15+08:0012.887711257519335
2025-12-31T13:43:18+08:0013.222811037906999
2025-12-31T13:43:21+08:0013.227251026448965
2025-12-31T13:43:24+08:0019.352525541869568
2025-12-31T13:43:27+08:0019.807075336579775
2025-12-31T14:25:42+08:0019.854482956173015
2025-12-31T14:25:46+08:0019.949966580731406
2025-12-31T14:25:49+08:0019.864747445813045
2025-12-31T14:25:52+08:0022.39028931538241
2025-12-31T14:32:32+08:0022.89320156593144
2025-12-31T15:26:47+08:0022.893631242241955
2025-12-31T15:26:50+08:0022.894204143989306
2025-12-31T15:27:01+08:0022.939367898405422
2025-12-31T15:27:03+08:0024.25298386326745
2025-12-31T15:27:06+08:0032.00625417740857
2025-12-31T16:21:11+08:0033.653346701040775
2025-12-31T16:21:27+08:0033.67459180750501
2025-12-31T16:21:30+08:0034.236512938031126
2025-12-31T16:21:33+08:0041.092237181323405
2025-12-31T16:21:36+08:0041.099398453165286
2025-12-31T16:33:52+08:0041.14714026544448
2025-12-31T17:01:18+08:0041.15936216938795
2025-12-31T17:04:05+08:0041.649479614246154
2025-12-31T17:05:01+08:0041.787787644418984
2025-12-31T17:05:51+08:0046.26119545497947
2025-12-31T18:07:51+08:0046.59538814093383
2025-12-31T18:08:29+08:0046.59753652248639
2025-12-31T18:08:39+08:0046.99369808077915
2025-12-31T18:09:44+08:0046.994318724338775
2025-12-31T18:10:43+08:0047.338632674496324
2025-12-31T18:15:50+08:0048.93158598300391
2025-12-31T18:19:41+08:0052.47880263534804
2025-12-31T19:57:43+08:0052.480664566026924
2025-12-31T19:57:52+08:0052.48109424233744
2025-12-31T19:58:08+08:0052.59118686145326
2025-12-31T19:59:16+08:0052.91167764728349
2025-12-31T20:00:12+08:0055.04573665616347
2025-12-31T20:06:41+08:0055.66260861262293
2025-12-31T20:07:11+08:0055.87176549221808
2025-12-31T20:08:27+08:0057.44724529743149
2025-12-31T21:37:22+08:0057.81175403418314
2025-12-31T21:37:46+08:0057.91287119259047
2025-12-31T21:38:54+08:0059.58383462236227
2025-12-31T22:13:06+08:0059.91182087272033
2025-12-31T22:14:21+08:0062.68084598491359
2026-01-01T09:20:13+08:0062.71693879499666
2026-01-01T09:22:07+08:0062.71693879499666
2026-01-01T09:23:15+08:0062.71918266017378
2026-01-01T09:26:20+08:0064.17378019669627
2026-01-01T09:27:10+08:0064.17378019669627
2026-01-01T09:27:55+08:0072.92008020624463
2026-01-01T09:28:33+08:0073.9465291702473
2026-01-01T10:07:26+08:0073.9483433591139
2026-01-01T10:07:53+08:0074.06077532703141
2026-01-01T10:08:31+08:0074.44270982526497
2026-01-01T13:16:47+08:0074.45302205671727
2026-01-01T13:20:20+08:0074.99131099016519
2026-01-01T13:22:01+08:0076.38537190871766
2026-01-01T13:22:31+08:0077.00601546834717
2026-01-01T13:23:03+08:0077.98472262007066
2026-01-01T16:21:23+08:0077.98773035424425
2026-01-01T16:23:56+08:0078.41153442184665
2026-01-01T16:25:39+08:0081.29991406473789
2026-01-01T16:26:07+08:0081.90623508068366
2026-01-01T18:19:06+08:0081.90771507686432
2026-01-01T18:21:23+08:0082.12264871574526
2026-01-01T18:22:18+08:0083.11567841115249
2026-01-01T18:22:48+08:0083.8318055953404
2026-01-01T20:37:40+08:0083.83242623890003
2026-01-01T20:39:06+08:0084.11176358254559
2026-01-01T20:40:34+08:0085.08569655304116
2026-01-01T20:41:12+08:0086.1789840542347
2026-01-01T22:13:01+08:0086.1794137305452
2026-01-01T22:15:11+08:0086.42070084980426
2026-01-01T22:16:10+08:0087.40418218275566
2026-01-01T22:16:42+08:0089.07037143129953
2026-01-02T08:52:54+08:0089.0660746681944
2026-01-02T08:54:08+08:0089.05581017855438
2026-01-02T08:57:12+08:0089.23317101117158
2026-01-02T08:57:15+08:0089.91917311181132
2026-01-02T08:58:28+08:0096.3308985009071
2026-01-02T09:01:09+08:0096.3308985009071
2026-01-02T09:03:32+08:0096.33677074381744
2026-01-02T09:05:12+08:0096.67311181132436
2026-01-02T09:06:00+08:0097.61362551322448
2026-01-02T10:06:19+08:0097.61505776759286
2026-01-02T10:06:22+08:0097.61591712021388
2026-01-02T10:06:25+08:0097.6156306693402
2026-01-02T10:08:25+08:0098.48620261625132
2026-01-02T10:08:31+08:0099.83934880168052
2026-01-02T10:08:38+08:00106.0839778477991
2026-01-02T11:18:48+08:00107.64346414589897
2026-01-02T11:19:53+08:00107.89974219421369
2026-01-02T11:21:51+08:00107.8921512460613
2026-01-02T11:21:53+08:00107.89219898787358
2026-01-02T11:22:15+08:00108.97799102453929
2026-01-02T11:23:49+08:00118.45951494318724
2026-01-02T12:12:11+08:00118.81027403800248
2026-01-02T12:13:38+08:00120.44213692351762
2026-01-02T12:14:34+08:00120.4428530507018
2026-01-02T12:15:42+08:00130.63095579108182
2026-01-02T13:48:32+08:00130.63138546739233
2026-01-02T13:48:37+08:00130.63181514370285
2026-01-02T13:48:42+08:00130.63224482001337
2026-01-02T13:50:34+08:00130.630812565645
2026-01-02T13:52:32+08:00131.79308698558197
2026-01-02T13:53:16+08:00136.9635252554187
2026-01-02T13:54:23+08:00136.96686718227824
2026-01-02T13:56:37+08:00137.39654349279098
2026-01-02T14:04:39+08:00137.3969731691015
2026-01-02T14:07:06+08:00138.05929533085077
2026-01-02T14:10:19+08:00138.74329227537478
2026-01-02T14:11:24+08:00144.24314904993793
2026-01-02T14:13:40+08:00149.79428053088895
2026-01-02T15:27:04+08:00149.80712307839207
2026-01-02T15:27:08+08:00149.81060823068844
2026-01-02T15:27:10+08:00149.78917215697507
2026-01-02T15:27:13+08:00149.8178172443426
2026-01-02T15:29:33+08:00149.96834717845888
2026-01-02T15:31:10+08:00157.04368375823546
2026-01-02T15:31:53+08:00158.6335338489449
2026-01-02T16:09:56+08:00158.69111047455362
2026-01-02T16:11:02+08:00160.07834431395017
2026-01-02T16:11:41+08:00167.23961615582928
2026-01-02T16:12:25+08:00167.2400458321398
2026-01-02T17:29:52+08:00167.23875680320825
2026-01-02T17:30:24+08:00167.24104841019766
2026-01-02T17:30:39+08:00167.2411438938222
2026-01-02T17:31:21+08:00167.27795283108946
2026-01-02T17:32:02+08:00168.72620070657882
2026-01-02T17:33:10+08:00175.50076386899647
2026-01-02T17:33:38+08:00204.88584932684046
2026-01-02T17:59:43+08:00204.89916929246635
2026-01-02T18:07:36+08:00204.9013176740189
2026-01-02T18:08:01+08:00204.9075718514275
2026-01-02T18:09:26+08:00205.63730545211496
2026-01-02T18:10:34+08:00210.59767974792322
2026-01-02T18:20:02+08:00212.33194882077723
2026-01-02T18:21:49+08:00212.346271364461
2026-01-02T20:53:41+08:00212.43144275756708
2026-01-02T20:54:49+08:00212.43282727012317
2026-01-02T21:06:22+08:00216.2227632960947
2026-01-02T21:09:49+08:00221.05900887997709
2026-01-02T21:10:25+08:00228.54015086412682
2026-01-02T21:11:03+08:00232.77962379451924
2026-01-02T22:23:57+08:00234.151675737611
2026-01-02T22:24:53+08:00238.82082497851619
2026-01-03T08:41:41+08:00238.82941850472645
2026-01-03T08:44:23+08:00238.82946624653871
2026-01-03T08:45:22+08:00242.2797192781438
2026-01-03T08:46:15+08:00242.2797192781438
2026-01-03T08:46:53+08:00259.84393201565933
2026-01-03T10:45:10+08:00259.8443616919698
2026-01-03T10:45:56+08:00259.90828797861167
2026-01-03T10:47:57+08:00261.5266399312518
2026-01-03T10:48:53+08:00264.2097297813425
2026-01-03T10:49:18+08:00268.5303637926096
2026-01-03T13:36:00+08:00268.52372768070273
2026-01-03T13:37:39+08:00271.24472452974317
2026-01-03T13:39:10+08:00279.2748973551036
2026-01-03T13:39:44+08:00283.28998376778384
2026-01-03T16:51:56+08:00285.93497565167576
2026-01-03T16:53:23+08:00290.97651102835863
2026-01-03T16:53:50+08:00293.8696648524778
2026-01-03T19:03:13+08:00293.8700945287883
2026-01-03T19:03:59+08:00293.8772080588179
2026-01-03T19:04:33+08:00293.8769693497565
2026-01-03T19:05:32+08:00296.68027308316624
2026-01-03T19:06:58+08:00302.3042585696553
2026-01-03T19:07:19+08:00304.94915496992263
2026-01-03T21:48:54+08:00304.95306979852955
2026-01-03T21:50:16+08:00305.89229447149813
2026-01-03T21:51:08+08:00309.1291893440275
2026-01-03T21:51:34+08:00311.7549890193832
2026-01-03T22:12:51+08:00311.7558483720042
2026-01-03T22:13:30+08:00312.2230497469684
2026-01-03T22:14:30+08:00316.99245679365987
2026-01-04T08:13:45+08:00316.9946051752124
2026-01-04T08:13:49+08:00317.641077055285
2026-01-04T08:13:54+08:00317.6425093096534
2026-01-04T08:13:58+08:00317.64274801871477
2026-01-04T08:14:02+08:00317.6277570896591
2026-01-04T08:14:07+08:00317.64222285877975
2026-01-04T08:14:11+08:00320.3311372099685
2026-01-04T08:14:16+08:00335.1024539291511
2026-01-04T12:25:18+08:00338.5303160507973
2026-01-04T12:25:22+08:00344.78449345937173
2026-01-04T12:25:26+08:00350.7856392628664
2026-01-04T12:25:29+08:00357.3453642700277
2026-01-04T12:25:58+08:00357.3457939463382
2026-01-04T12:26:02+08:00357.3462236226487
2026-01-04T12:26:07+08:00357.34636684808555
2026-01-04T12:26:12+08:00357.3467010407715
2026-01-04T12:26:16+08:00357.34884942232407
2026-01-04T12:26:20+08:00357.3774945096916
2026-01-04T12:26:37+08:00357.8794996658073
2026-01-04T12:26:40+08:00359.11486680034375
2026-01-04T12:26:44+08:00360.03241669053756
2026-01-04T12:26:48+08:00361.3997421942137
2026-01-04T12:27:36+08:00361.3885228683281
2026-01-04T12:27:41+08:00361.4252363219708
2026-01-04T12:27:49+08:00361.42829179795666
2026-01-04T12:27:58+08:00361.43192017568987
2026-01-04T12:34:47+08:00369.07061014036094
2026-01-04T12:48:16+08:00369.0710875584837
2026-01-04T12:49:08+08:00369.07103981667143
2026-01-04T15:00:39+08:00369.0751933543397
2026-01-04T15:00:44+08:00370.0678411152487
2026-01-04T15:00:49+08:00377.80201470447815
2026-01-04T15:00:53+08:00377.8005824501098
2026-01-04T15:00:57+08:00377.801298577294
2026-01-04T15:01:02+08:00377.8024443807887
2026-01-04T15:01:10+08:00378.32392819631434
2026-01-04T15:01:14+08:00386.0390050606321
2026-01-04T15:01:19+08:00386.0408192494987
2026-01-04T15:07:34+08:00392.7294471498138
2026-01-04T15:08:35+08:00393.9236131003533
2026-01-04T15:09:04+08:00393.94509691587893
2026-01-04T19:05:44+08:00393.9455265921894
2026-01-04T19:05:48+08:00393.9483911009262
2026-01-04T19:06:11+08:00393.94896400267356
2026-01-04T19:06:15+08:00393.948534326363
2026-01-04T19:06:33+08:00393.9685858875203
2026-01-04T19:10:01+08:00401.9175976320061
2026-01-04T19:10:07+08:00411.54234698749167
2026-01-04T19:10:11+08:00420.8997421942137
2026-01-04T19:10:17+08:00428.9108182946625
2026-01-04T19:20:41+08:00429.9521627040962
2026-01-04T19:20:46+08:00430.586699131099
2026-01-04T19:20:51+08:00431.34932684044685
2026-01-04T19:20:55+08:00432.9424233743913
2026-01-04T19:31:34+08:00432.9441898214456
2026-01-04T19:31:42+08:00432.94710207199466
2026-01-04T19:31:52+08:00432.9570323689487
2026-01-04T19:31:56+08:00432.95908526687674
2026-01-04T19:33:38+08:00432.95913300868904
2026-01-04T19:35:23+08:00434.39138737706486
2026-01-04T22:15:37+08:00434.391244151628
2026-01-04T22:15:51+08:00434.3916260861262
2026-01-04T22:18:37+08:00435.9513988350998
2026-01-04T22:18:41+08:00443.71421751169675
2026-01-04T22:18:50+08:00445.12465387186097
2026-01-04T22:18:57+08:00455.0024348324262
2026-01-04T22:19:02+08:00456.5591998472262
2026-01-04T22:19:07+08:00467.9599446194978
2026-01-04T22:19:12+08:00467.96037429580826
2026-01-05T08:41:58+08:00467.96295235367137
2026-01-05T08:45:40+08:00470.32750883223525
2026-01-05T08:45:43+08:00478.8861357777141
2026-01-05T08:48:19+08:00548.1022152200898
2026-01-05T08:51:52+08:00548.1022152200898
2026-01-05T09:06:25+08:00548.1250358063592
2026-01-05T09:07:23+08:00551.3562494032274
2026-01-05T09:08:47+08:00574.3439320156593
2026-01-05T09:33:45+08:00574.3440752410961
2026-01-05T09:34:15+08:00577.6860021006397
2026-01-05T09:57:51+08:00577.6864317769503
2026-01-05T10:00:13+08:00594.2816766924473
2026-01-05T10:02:51+08:00594.2965721378783
2026-01-05T10:04:47+08:00595.2514083834623
2026-01-05T10:06:04+08:00599.7149336388809
2026-01-05T10:09:12+08:00599.7380406760241
2026-01-05T10:10:07+08:00638.0556192113053
2026-01-05T11:06:46+08:00638.0556669531176
2026-01-05T11:07:07+08:00642.3201565931442
2026-01-05T11:08:01+08:00668.4587988160031
2026-01-05T11:08:51+08:00672.2481619402273
2026-01-05T11:09:49+08:00672.3269359304879
2026-01-05T11:09:55+08:00672.356010694166
2026-01-05T11:31:28+08:00672.3564403704764
2026-01-05T11:32:56+08:00672.3561539196028
2026-01-05T11:55:07+08:00672.3776377351285
2026-01-05T12:01:30+08:00672.8049269550272
2026-01-05T12:07:51+08:00673.1233648429294
2026-01-05T12:08:28+08:00675.739568414017
2026-01-05T12:09:09+08:00689.4319201756899
2026-01-05T13:43:09+08:00689.7081543015373
2026-01-05T13:43:11+08:00690.870046786976
2026-01-05T13:43:14+08:00692.6189248543875
2026-01-05T13:43:17+08:00692.7094433304688
2026-01-05T13:43:20+08:00692.8025398644132
2026-01-05T13:45:35+08:00694.8989783252172
2026-01-05T13:46:52+08:00695.5000954836246
2026-01-05T13:47:32+08:00708.4094815239187
2026-01-05T13:47:49+08:00708.4518762532226
2026-01-05T13:48:36+08:00708.5112670676979
2026-01-05T14:01:57+08:00708.6394060918552
2026-01-05T14:02:36+08:00708.7124510646424
2026-01-05T14:04:23+08:00716.7952831089468
2026-01-05T14:06:47+08:00729.3895731881983
2026-01-05T14:08:11+08:00729.4248543874726
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TradeGo forecast multiple
TimeMultiple
Broker margin funds trend
TimeBrokerMargin funds
Prediction Model 1-Lot Expected Lots— Lots for expected 1-lot allotment—
Multiple derivation
Recent first-day return
+4.6%
→
Participants
19,952
→
Avg lots
84.3
→
Oversubscription
27x
27x = 19,952 × 84.3 ÷ 63,474 margin-weighted 100% → 1622.1x
1x4774.0x
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.54
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.64
This model does not support allocation strategy adjustment

Actual vs Predicted Comparison

Using the actual oversubscription ratio 1837.17x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.540, Pool B α=0.640) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier

Lots Subscription Amount (HKD) Actual Expected Lots Predicted Expected Lots Error

LogoMinimax-W Allotment Prediction Matrix

Rows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates expected ≥1 lot. Non-preset multiples are interpolated from the nearest grid points.

Offering Mechanism

18C

HKEX Listing Rule Chapter 18C for specialist technology companies. Mechanisms A and B do not apply. Initial allocation 5%, with clawback: 10x to below 50x → 10%, 50x or above → 20%. At least 50% of total offering shares must be taken up by independent pricing investors in the placing tranche.

Allocation Strategy Coefficient α

α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].

  • α → 0: Per-capita allocation — regardless of lots subscribed, every allottee receives the same number of shares. More favorable to retail (small) applications.
  • α → 1: Proportional allocation — allotted shares are proportional to lots subscribed. More favorable to large applications.
  • Historical actual α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0. α varies widely across IPOs, reflecting each issuer's allocation strategy.
Allotment Rate Definition

The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").

Expected Allotment Lots

Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier

Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.

About this page

This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Minimax-W (00100): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 22087 allotment-tier records across 592 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation). You can override the oversubscription multiple and the allocation-method α right on the page, replacing cibo's defaults to see expected lots under your own scenario. How allotment rates and clawback work is explained in How Hong Kong IPO Allotment Rates Work.
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.

Cibo — HK IPO Allotment Forecasts, Allottee Profiling & Stock Connect