Axera 00600Expected Lots
Axera (00600) Expected Lots
| Rank | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
118.4100M |
| 2 |  辉立 |
51.0100M |
| 3 |  老虎 |
24.4100M |
| 4 |  招银 |
9.5100M |
| 5 |  华泰 |
9.0100M |
| 6 |  华盛 |
3.2100M |
| 7 |  盈立 |
2.6100M |
| 8 |  长桥 |
2.1100M |
| 9 |  信诚 |
1.0100M |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-30T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2026-01-30T10:16:47+08:00 | 0.000337997701615629 |
| 2026-01-30T10:16:53+08:00 | 0.030892989927668493 |
| 2026-01-30T10:17:00+08:00 | 0.095112553234638 |
| 2026-01-30T10:17:07+08:00 | 0.0984925302507943 |
| 2026-01-30T10:17:13+08:00 | 0.11201243831541946 |
| 2026-01-30T11:07:26+08:00 | 0.11603461096464544 |
| 2026-01-30T11:08:05+08:00 | 0.19850605015885892 |
| 2026-01-30T11:09:04+08:00 | 0.2327790171026837 |
| 2026-01-30T11:09:23+08:00 | 0.783715270736159 |
| 2026-01-30T12:14:41+08:00 | 0.7872642466031231 |
| 2026-01-30T12:15:18+08:00 | 0.8533427972689785 |
| 2026-01-30T12:15:47+08:00 | 0.9104982086121814 |
| 2026-01-30T12:16:02+08:00 | 1.464814439261813 |
| 2026-01-30T13:43:01+08:00 | 1.4673156222537687 |
| 2026-01-30T13:43:52+08:00 | 1.476576759278037 |
| 2026-01-30T13:44:33+08:00 | 1.7435949435543838 |
| 2026-01-30T13:45:05+08:00 | 1.7678969783005476 |
| 2026-01-30T14:03:25+08:00 | 1.7670519840465084 |
| 2026-01-30T14:03:55+08:00 | 1.7764145203812614 |
| 2026-01-30T14:05:26+08:00 | 1.78935983235314 |
| 2026-01-30T14:05:55+08:00 | 1.9752585682417358 |
| 2026-01-30T14:08:34+08:00 | 2.009362536334753 |
| 2026-01-30T15:09:51+08:00 | 2.016697086459812 |
| 2026-01-30T15:10:37+08:00 | 2.0226796457784086 |
| 2026-01-30T15:11:55+08:00 | 2.0293720002703983 |
| 2026-01-30T15:12:44+08:00 | 2.140911241803556 |
| 2026-01-30T15:55:21+08:00 | 2.2085107821266816 |
| 2026-01-30T16:06:38+08:00 | 2.203474616372609 |
| 2026-01-30T16:07:14+08:00 | 2.2136145474210775 |
| 2026-01-30T16:08:02+08:00 | 2.2156425336307715 |
| 2026-01-30T16:09:45+08:00 | 2.2764821199215843 |
| 2026-01-30T17:10:45+08:00 | 2.2790171026837016 |
| 2026-01-30T17:12:41+08:00 | 2.2826674778611507 |
| 2026-01-30T17:13:14+08:00 | 3.3507402149665384 |
| 2026-01-30T18:10:40+08:00 | 3.9253363077131076 |
| 2026-01-30T18:12:09+08:00 | 3.918103156898533 |
| 2026-01-30T18:12:49+08:00 | 3.9241195159872913 |
| 2026-01-30T18:13:43+08:00 | 3.947745555330224 |
| 2026-01-30T18:14:57+08:00 | 3.974785371459474 |
| 2026-01-30T18:21:20+08:00 | 4.014939498411411 |
| 2026-01-30T19:58:08+08:00 | 4.048739268572974 |
| 2026-01-30T19:58:44+08:00 | 4.052254444669776 |
| 2026-01-30T19:59:26+08:00 | 4.076252281484486 |
| 2026-01-30T20:00:12+08:00 | 4.093050767254782 |
| 2026-01-30T20:00:43+08:00 | 4.082910836206314 |
| 2026-01-30T20:03:50+08:00 | 4.102480903129859 |
| 2026-01-30T20:04:28+08:00 | 4.103359697154059 |
| 2026-01-30T20:05:38+08:00 | 4.079699858040965 |
| 2026-01-30T21:21:25+08:00 | 4.080578652065166 |
| 2026-01-30T21:22:03+08:00 | 4.081558845399852 |
| 2026-01-30T21:22:30+08:00 | 4.2606976272561345 |
| 2026-01-30T22:03:25+08:00 | 4.262252416683567 |
| 2026-01-30T22:03:59+08:00 | 4.26232001622389 |
| 2026-01-30T22:06:00+08:00 | 4.28935983235314 |
| 2026-01-31T10:38:10+08:00 | 4.332555938619618 |
| 2026-01-31T10:38:28+08:00 | 4.332555938619618 |
| 2026-01-31T10:38:49+08:00 | 4.34905022645846 |
| 2026-01-31T10:39:10+08:00 | 4.453761914418982 |
| 2026-01-31T10:39:23+08:00 | 4.964138443858582 |
| 2026-01-31T10:39:33+08:00 | 4.982897316298249 |
| 2026-01-31T11:08:58+08:00 | 4.983032515378896 |
| 2026-01-31T11:09:34+08:00 | 4.971777191915095 |
| 2026-01-31T11:12:47+08:00 | 5.005576962076658 |
| 2026-01-31T13:32:23+08:00 | 5.008956939092815 |
| 2026-01-31T13:33:37+08:00 | 5.010342729669438 |
| 2026-01-31T13:35:16+08:00 | 5.013317109443656 |
| 2026-01-31T13:35:59+08:00 | 5.053876833637531 |
| 2026-01-31T13:36:35+08:00 | 5.080916649766782 |
| 2026-01-31T16:28:21+08:00 | 5.082674237815183 |
| 2026-01-31T16:30:26+08:00 | 5.085175420807139 |
| 2026-01-31T16:31:04+08:00 | 5.085682417359562 |
| 2026-01-31T16:33:48+08:00 | 5.011322923004124 |
| 2026-01-31T16:34:05+08:00 | 5.0485026701818425 |
| 2026-01-31T18:31:01+08:00 | 5.049685662137497 |
| 2026-01-31T18:32:47+08:00 | 5.0500236598391135 |
| 2026-01-31T18:34:54+08:00 | 5.050970053403637 |
| 2026-01-31T18:35:38+08:00 | 5.280808490502265 |
| 2026-01-31T18:35:59+08:00 | 5.284188467518421 |
| 2026-01-31T20:25:38+08:00 | 5.284796863381329 |
| 2026-01-31T20:27:36+08:00 | 5.28523626039343 |
| 2026-01-31T20:28:45+08:00 | 5.308625701345231 |
| 2026-01-31T20:29:50+08:00 | 5.339045494490637 |
| 2026-01-31T20:30:10+08:00 | 5.342425471506794 |
| 2026-01-31T21:25:26+08:00 | 5.343540863922125 |
| 2026-01-31T21:25:42+08:00 | 5.360880146015007 |
| 2026-01-31T21:26:21+08:00 | 5.374400054079632 |
| 2026-02-01T10:25:59+08:00 | 5.3724734671804235 |
| 2026-02-01T10:30:38+08:00 | 5.3804164131683905 |
| 2026-02-01T10:31:55+08:00 | 5.411140404245251 |
| 2026-02-01T10:34:49+08:00 | 5.455080105455283 |
| 2026-02-01T10:35:12+08:00 | 5.411140404245251 |
| 2026-02-01T13:30:19+08:00 | 5.411377002636382 |
| 2026-02-01T13:30:50+08:00 | 5.411681200567836 |
| 2026-02-01T13:31:14+08:00 | 5.412019198269451 |
| 2026-02-01T13:31:33+08:00 | 5.431420266342188 |
| 2026-02-01T13:32:11+08:00 | 5.431961062664774 |
| 2026-02-01T13:32:33+08:00 | 5.433076455080106 |
| 2026-02-01T13:36:55+08:00 | 5.422936524031637 |
| 2026-02-01T13:37:15+08:00 | 5.4263165010477925 |
| 2026-02-01T16:32:17+08:00 | 5.427026296221186 |
| 2026-02-01T16:38:41+08:00 | 5.429797877374434 |
| 2026-02-01T16:39:46+08:00 | 5.430913269789765 |
| 2026-02-01T16:41:15+08:00 | 5.488372879064422 |
| 2026-02-01T16:41:42+08:00 | 5.586392212532955 |
| 2026-02-01T19:43:31+08:00 | 5.588555397823295 |
| 2026-02-01T19:45:13+08:00 | 5.592374771851551 |
| 2026-02-01T19:46:06+08:00 | 5.59947272358548 |
| 2026-02-01T19:47:07+08:00 | 5.619752585682417 |
| 2026-02-01T19:47:29+08:00 | 5.629892516730886 |
| 2026-02-01T21:35:51+08:00 | 5.6492259852633 |
| 2026-02-01T21:36:18+08:00 | 5.649597782735078 |
| 2026-02-01T21:36:40+08:00 | 5.6513891705536405 |
| 2026-02-01T21:37:28+08:00 | 5.67842898668289 |
| 2026-02-01T21:37:46+08:00 | 5.566889745149733 |
| 2026-02-02T08:55:59+08:00 | 5.570202122625566 |
| 2026-02-02T08:57:27+08:00 | 5.589434191847495 |
| 2026-02-02T08:58:16+08:00 | 5.589434191847495 |
| 2026-02-02T08:59:30+08:00 | 5.626613939025215 |
| 2026-02-02T08:59:48+08:00 | 5.788852835800717 |
| 2026-02-02T09:00:18+08:00 | 5.789731629824917 |
| 2026-02-02T09:05:13+08:00 | 5.860913945785168 |
| 2026-02-02T09:08:17+08:00 | 5.86571351314811 |
| 2026-02-02T09:09:28+08:00 | 5.871729872236869 |
| 2026-02-02T09:09:49+08:00 | 6.030588791996214 |
| 2026-02-02T10:13:08+08:00 | 6.050868654093152 |
| 2026-02-02T10:14:41+08:00 | 6.10575948083553 |
| 2026-02-02T10:15:39+08:00 | 6.124247955113905 |
| 2026-02-02T10:16:26+08:00 | 6.182484959102278 |
| 2026-02-02T10:17:48+08:00 | 6.2838842695869666 |
| 2026-02-02T11:12:24+08:00 | 6.28915703373217 |
| 2026-02-02T11:14:16+08:00 | 6.2492395051713645 |
| 2026-02-02T11:15:33+08:00 | 6.257452849320624 |
| 2026-02-02T11:15:58+08:00 | 6.341952274724532 |
| 2026-02-02T12:26:16+08:00 | 6.344183059555195 |
| 2026-02-02T12:30:33+08:00 | 6.360981545325492 |
| 2026-02-02T12:31:25+08:00 | 6.354086392212533 |
| 2026-02-02T12:31:51+08:00 | 6.360846346244846 |
| 2026-02-02T13:43:41+08:00 | 6.370817278442507 |
| 2026-02-02T13:44:43+08:00 | 6.371155276144123 |
| 2026-02-02T13:45:30+08:00 | 6.367538700736835 |
| 2026-02-02T14:08:54+08:00 | 6.36635570878118 |
| 2026-02-02T14:10:05+08:00 | 6.394206719394308 |
| 2026-02-02T14:10:52+08:00 | 6.392787129047522 |
| 2026-02-02T14:11:16+08:00 | 6.379267220982897 |
| 2026-02-02T15:07:35+08:00 | 6.396167106063679 |
| 2026-02-02T15:08:04+08:00 | 6.399783681470966 |
| 2026-02-02T15:10:44+08:00 | 6.40333265733793 |
| 2026-02-02T15:12:25+08:00 | 6.4269924964510246 |
| 2026-02-02T16:17:45+08:00 | 6.427195295071994 |
| 2026-02-02T16:18:03+08:00 | 6.428547285878456 |
| 2026-02-02T16:21:00+08:00 | 6.430879470019604 |
| 2026-02-02T16:21:44+08:00 | 6.437639424051916 |
| 2026-02-02T16:24:59+08:00 | 6.5390387345366054 |
| 2026-02-02T17:15:54+08:00 | 6.551105252484283 |
| 2026-02-02T17:16:18+08:00 | 6.5536064354762384 |
| 2026-02-02T17:19:30+08:00 | 6.638105860880146 |
| 2026-02-02T17:20:15+08:00 | 6.680997769215169 |
| 2026-02-02T17:22:02+08:00 | 6.948015953491517 |
| 2026-02-02T17:24:51+08:00 | 6.958460082471439 |
| 2026-02-02T18:13:25+08:00 | 6.959609274656932 |
| 2026-02-02T18:13:53+08:00 | 7.28070709119178 |
| 2026-02-02T18:15:09+08:00 | 7.271243155546542 |
| 2026-02-02T18:15:14+08:00 | 7.3648009193537485 |
| 2026-02-02T18:16:06+08:00 | 7.5405597241938755 |
| 2026-02-02T18:22:43+08:00 | 7.572534306766714 |
| 2026-02-02T20:50:24+08:00 | 7.5735145001014 |
| 2026-02-02T20:52:01+08:00 | 7.602987899682282 |
| 2026-02-02T20:52:14+08:00 | 7.603934293246806 |
| 2026-02-02T20:52:44+08:00 | 7.667038464138444 |
| 2026-02-02T20:53:50+08:00 | 7.741397958493883 |
| 2026-02-02T21:39:36+08:00 | 7.744068140336646 |
| 2026-02-02T21:39:55+08:00 | 7.7507604948286355 |
| 2026-02-02T21:40:28+08:00 | 7.331643344825255 |
| 2026-02-03T07:49:16+08:00 | 7.328060569188129 |
| 2026-02-03T07:53:44+08:00 | 7.324038396538904 |
| 2026-02-03T07:53:50+08:00 | 7.3289393632123305 |
| 2026-02-03T07:55:41+08:00 | 7.3289393632123305 |
| 2026-02-03T09:13:38+08:00 | 7.376495639829649 |
| 2026-02-03T09:13:55+08:00 | 7.379875616845806 |
| 2026-02-03T09:15:49+08:00 | 7.3865679713377945 |
| 2026-02-03T09:15:55+08:00 | 7.398195092273372 |
| 2026-02-03T09:16:32+08:00 | 7.617319002230785 |
| 2026-02-03T09:18:38+08:00 | 7.901237071587913 |
| 2026-02-03T09:18:58+08:00 | 7.924896910701007 |
| 2026-02-03T09:26:34+08:00 | 7.921415534374367 |
| 2026-02-03T10:01:54+08:00 | 7.937571824511593 |
| 2026-02-03T10:07:00+08:00 | 7.949705941999595 |
| 2026-02-03T10:07:20+08:00 | 7.974075576286081 |
| 2026-02-03T10:08:01+08:00 | 8.088994794835395 |
| 2026-02-03T11:12:10+08:00 | 8.10187250726695 |
| 2026-02-03T11:12:40+08:00 | 8.152538362739133 |
| 2026-02-03T11:13:11+08:00 | 8.157101331710944 |
| 2026-02-03T11:13:24+08:00 | 8.37003988372879 |
| 2026-02-03T12:00:24+08:00 | 8.372946663962685 |
| 2026-02-03T12:06:05+08:00 | 8.388764956398296 |
| 2026-02-03T12:06:37+08:00 | 8.38558777800311 |
| 2026-02-03T12:07:09+08:00 | 8.524166835665518 |
| 2026-02-03T13:45:02+08:00 | 8.555465422835125 |
| 2026-02-03T13:45:55+08:00 | 8.556040018927872 |
| 2026-02-03T13:47:28+08:00 | 8.578077469073211 |
| 2026-02-03T13:47:39+08:00 | 8.635537078347868 |
| 2026-02-03T14:08:36+08:00 | 8.609916852565403 |
| 2026-02-03T14:09:12+08:00 | 8.625160548908267 |
| 2026-02-03T14:10:15+08:00 | 8.68600013519908 |
| 2026-02-03T14:16:12+08:00 | 8.713276549719462 |
| 2026-02-03T15:19:50+08:00 | 8.718515514094504 |
| 2026-02-03T15:20:16+08:00 | 8.73051443250186 |
| 2026-02-03T15:20:41+08:00 | 8.771243155546543 |
| 2026-02-03T15:21:57+08:00 | 8.8827823970797 |
| 2026-02-03T16:04:18+08:00 | 8.94984114108024 |
| 2026-02-03T16:04:39+08:00 | 8.975596565943352 |
| 2026-02-03T16:05:54+08:00 | 8.997498817008044 |
| 2026-02-03T16:06:22+08:00 | 9.105658081525046 |
| 2026-02-03T17:24:55+08:00 | 9.209051578449266 |
| 2026-02-03T17:25:44+08:00 | 9.23767998377611 |
| 2026-02-03T17:26:12+08:00 | 9.254005272764145 |
| 2026-02-03T17:26:39+08:00 | 9.064726559859393 |
| 2026-02-03T17:27:03+08:00 | 9.13232610018252 |
| 2026-02-03T17:31:43+08:00 | 10.298418170756438 |
| 2026-02-03T18:03:29+08:00 | 10.320624619752586 |
| 2026-02-03T18:04:17+08:00 | 10.351686608531063 |
| 2026-02-03T18:04:57+08:00 | 10.361691340498885 |
| 2026-02-03T18:05:33+08:00 | 10.523930237274387 |
| 2026-02-03T18:32:21+08:00 | 10.530656391536537 |
| 2026-02-03T20:13:12+08:00 | 10.543432704657608 |
| 2026-02-03T20:15:21+08:00 | 10.628540525924423 |
| 2026-02-03T20:16:09+08:00 | 10.638511458122085 |
| 2026-02-03T20:18:30+08:00 | 10.685831136348273 |
| 2026-02-03T20:18:49+08:00 | 10.831170148042993 |
| 2026-02-03T21:47:51+08:00 | 10.844216859325357 |
| 2026-02-03T21:48:14+08:00 | 10.862637734063409 |
| 2026-02-03T21:48:35+08:00 | 10.893057527208814 |
| 2026-02-04T08:49:08+08:00 | 10.897113499628203 |
| 2026-02-04T08:50:04+08:00 | 10.904684648144393 |
| 2026-02-04T08:50:17+08:00 | 10.991212059757993 |
| 2026-02-04T08:52:46+08:00 | 10.99888460758467 |
| 2026-02-04T08:52:56+08:00 | 10.99979720137903 |
| 2026-02-04T08:53:36+08:00 | 10.99979720137903 |
| 2026-02-04T08:53:57+08:00 | 11.043736902589062 |
| 2026-02-04T08:54:12+08:00 | 11.61157304130332 |
| 2026-02-04T09:03:14+08:00 | 11.680693571283715 |
| 2026-02-04T09:04:06+08:00 | 11.68143716622727 |
| 2026-02-04T09:04:26+08:00 | 11.677820590819982 |
| 2026-02-04T09:07:04+08:00 | 11.69617386601771 |
| 2026-02-04T09:08:39+08:00 | 11.790813222470087 |
| 2026-02-04T10:03:44+08:00 | 11.80017575880484 |
| 2026-02-04T10:04:22+08:00 | 11.957243290745623 |
| 2026-02-04T10:04:36+08:00 | 11.957851686608532 |
| 2026-02-04T10:09:22+08:00 | 12.336409112418036 |
| 2026-02-04T10:23:53+08:00 | 12.843405664841478 |
| 2026-02-04T11:06:34+08:00 | 12.844825255188265 |
| 2026-02-04T11:07:13+08:00 | 12.862603934293247 |
| 2026-02-04T11:07:21+08:00 | 13.082302440343407 |
| 2026-02-04T11:08:20+08:00 | 13.095180152774962 |
| 2026-02-04T12:00:27+08:00 | 13.09754613668627 |
| 2026-02-04T12:05:11+08:00 | 13.103224498073413 |
| 2026-02-04T12:05:55+08:00 | 13.114141823835597 |
| 2026-02-04T12:06:14+08:00 | 13.47579936456432 |
| 2026-02-04T13:47:13+08:00 | 13.496383424592713 |
| 2026-02-04T13:47:36+08:00 | 13.76340160886906 |
| 2026-02-04T13:48:12+08:00 | 13.778036909349016 |
| 2026-02-04T13:48:19+08:00 | 13.779050902453863 |
| 2026-02-04T14:01:07+08:00 | 13.925099709321977 |
| 2026-02-04T14:13:43+08:00 | 13.943047387277767 |
| 2026-02-04T14:13:56+08:00 | 13.916818765632394 |
| 2026-02-04T14:14:08+08:00 | 14.12975731765024 |
| 2026-02-04T14:15:13+08:00 | 14.34408166024471 |
| 2026-02-04T15:08:49+08:00 | 14.36980328533766 |
| 2026-02-04T15:09:19+08:00 | 14.370986277293314 |
| 2026-02-04T15:10:22+08:00 | 14.42128033529372 |
| 2026-02-04T15:10:44+08:00 | 14.91475697965254 |
| 2026-02-04T15:23:31+08:00 | 15.083755830460353 |
| 2026-02-04T16:03:50+08:00 | 15.1816737646184 |
| 2026-02-04T16:13:37+08:00 | 15.871189075914284 |
| 2026-02-04T17:05:40+08:00 | 17.736429392280133 |
| 2026-02-04T17:05:48+08:00 | 23.81362806732914 |
| 2026-02-04T17:34:04+08:00 | 24.438923815318056 |
| 2026-02-04T17:34:35+08:00 | 30.151084972622186 |
| 2026-02-04T18:04:08+08:00 | 31.390015547894276 |
| 2026-02-04T18:05:10+08:00 | 33.17609680254174 |
| 2026-02-04T18:05:30+08:00 | 33.34509565334956 |
| 2026-02-04T18:05:36+08:00 | 39.550733455012505 |
| 2026-02-04T20:06:59+08:00 | 40.52531602785101 |
| 2026-02-04T20:07:31+08:00 | 43.56053538835936 |
| 2026-02-04T20:08:10+08:00 | 44.32728317447442 |
| 2026-02-04T20:08:28+08:00 | 46.858885959575474 |
| 2026-02-04T21:44:32+08:00 | 47.54265530994389 |
| 2026-02-04T21:44:49+08:00 | 50.7198337051308 |
| 2026-02-05T08:43:09+08:00 | 50.82741837355506 |
| 2026-02-05T08:43:12+08:00 | 51.036165754072876 |
| 2026-02-05T08:43:16+08:00 | 51.6249577502873 |
| 2026-02-05T08:45:24+08:00 | 51.6249577502873 |
| 2026-02-05T08:45:58+08:00 | 54.70411681200568 |
| 2026-02-05T08:46:06+08:00 | 57.62103697694856 |
| 2026-02-05T08:50:45+08:00 | 57.68863651727168 |
| 2026-02-05T09:12:24+08:00 | 57.572804704928004 |
| 2026-02-05T09:12:45+08:00 | 58.296119786385454 |
| 2026-02-05T09:15:42+08:00 | 59.66480767930778 |
| 2026-02-05T10:06:53+08:00 | 59.62543094706956 |
| 2026-02-05T10:07:49+08:00 | 62.65051037652944 |
| 2026-02-05T11:54:08+08:00 | 72.10768606773473 |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|
| Time | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|
Using the actual oversubscription ratio 104.82x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.581, Pool B α=0.681) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier
| Lots | Subscription Amount (HKD) | Actual Expected Lots | Predicted Expected Lots | Error |
|---|
Axera Allotment Prediction MatrixRows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates guaranteed allotment (≥1 lot)
Mechanism B
Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).
α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].
The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").
Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier
Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.
This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Axera (00600): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 10,897 allotment-tier records across 356 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation).
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.
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