Margin dynamics Margin multiple672.4x Margin funds1029.6100M TradeGo forecast multiple874.13x
Rank Broker Margin funds
1 富途证券富途 609.8100M
2 辉立证券辉立 165.0100M
3 老虎国际老虎 99.2100M
4 华泰国际华泰 49.5100M
5 信诚证券信诚 20.0100M
6 盈立证券盈立 19.2100M
7 致富证券致富 15.7100M
8 华盛证券华盛 13.0100M
9 复星国际复星 12.4100M
Margin multiple
TimeMultiple
2026-06-18T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-18T10:08:57+08:000.003853187042842215
2026-06-18T10:09:03+08:000.015804597701149427
2026-06-18T10:09:08+08:000.02233542319749216
2026-06-18T11:19:35+08:000.039968652037617555
2026-06-18T11:22:18+08:000.06609195402298851
2026-06-18T11:23:41+08:000.06844305120167189
2026-06-18T11:25:53+08:000.4537617554858934
2026-06-18T12:16:47+08:000.45820271682340646
2026-06-18T12:19:20+08:000.4687173458725183
2026-06-18T12:20:41+08:000.47126436781609193
2026-06-18T12:22:44+08:000.47577063740856845
2026-06-18T12:23:26+08:000.9002742946708464
2026-06-18T14:06:22+08:000.9198667711598746
2026-06-18T14:06:24+08:000.9339733542319749
2026-06-18T14:09:11+08:000.9627742946708464
2026-06-18T14:09:13+08:000.9822361546499477
2026-06-18T14:12:10+08:001.0997910135841171
2026-06-18T14:12:12+08:001.2891849529780564
2026-06-18T14:16:40+08:001.2933646812957158
2026-06-18T14:16:43+08:001.297544409613375
2026-06-18T14:17:16+08:001.3045323928944619
2026-06-18T14:18:52+08:001.424046499477534
2026-06-18T15:13:02+08:001.4363244514106583
2026-06-18T15:13:08+08:001.4376306165099269
2026-06-18T15:13:35+08:001.5513975966562172
2026-06-18T15:13:43+08:001.5935867293625914
2026-06-18T15:13:56+08:001.6588949843260188
2026-06-18T15:58:04+08:001.854819749216301
2026-06-18T16:12:00+08:001.8562565308254964
2026-06-18T16:12:56+08:001.8593260188087775
2026-06-18T16:14:49+08:001.9425287356321839
2026-06-18T16:16:35+08:001.9457941483803554
2026-06-18T16:17:26+08:002.775208986415883
2026-06-18T16:18:19+08:002.8503134796238245
2026-06-18T17:47:51+08:002.8727795193312433
2026-06-18T17:50:22+08:002.942855276907001
2026-06-18T17:51:44+08:002.958137408568443
2026-06-18T17:52:55+08:002.9783829676071054
2026-06-18T17:54:08+08:003.572688087774295
2026-06-18T17:56:43+08:004.617620167189132
2026-06-18T18:12:41+08:004.624020376175548
2026-06-18T18:12:54+08:004.635841170323929
2026-06-18T18:12:59+08:004.7142110762800415
2026-06-18T18:13:06+08:004.71512539184953
2026-06-18T18:13:19+08:005.054728317659352
2026-06-18T18:14:15+08:005.380485893416928
2026-06-18T20:29:51+08:005.396551724137931
2026-06-18T20:31:17+08:005.415687042842215
2026-06-18T20:33:28+08:005.473876698014629
2026-06-18T20:35:11+08:005.513126959247649
2026-06-18T20:36:26+08:006.466627481713688
2026-06-18T21:34:57+08:006.658503134796239
2026-06-18T22:08:33+08:006.713296760710554
2026-06-18T22:09:34+08:006.818508359456636
2026-06-18T22:11:04+08:006.936063218390805
2026-06-19T09:17:47+08:008.470807210031348
2026-06-19T09:17:52+08:008.607954545454545
2026-06-19T09:20:20+08:008.879506269592477
2026-06-19T09:21:51+08:008.892959770114942
2026-06-19T09:25:02+08:008.91823406478579
2026-06-19T09:31:50+08:009.18808777429467
2026-06-19T10:16:44+08:009.188153082549634
2026-06-19T10:17:30+08:009.191091954022989
2026-06-19T10:19:15+08:009.191940961337513
2026-06-19T10:21:19+08:009.200626959247648
2026-06-19T10:24:39+08:009.25287356321839
2026-06-19T11:41:46+08:009.254114420062695
2026-06-19T11:43:41+08:009.268351619644722
2026-06-19T11:44:35+08:009.27174764890282
2026-06-19T11:48:53+08:009.309103970741901
2026-06-19T11:50:16+08:009.446251306165099
2026-06-19T12:03:59+08:009.447426854754442
2026-06-19T12:10:27+08:009.448145245559038
2026-06-19T12:11:57+08:009.4630355276907
2026-06-19T12:12:47+08:009.465647857889238
2026-06-19T12:14:23+08:009.54401776384535
2026-06-19T14:17:20+08:009.546172936259143
2026-06-19T14:17:24+08:009.547217868338558
2026-06-19T14:20:45+08:009.55753657262278
2026-06-19T14:20:49+08:009.558581504702195
2026-06-19T14:23:14+08:009.55962643678161
2026-06-19T14:24:25+08:009.548328108672937
2026-06-19T14:24:29+08:009.5651776384535
2026-06-19T14:26:10+08:009.721917450365726
2026-06-19T14:26:15+08:009.761102403343783
2026-06-19T15:17:19+08:0010.267306687565307
2026-06-19T15:17:58+08:0010.268612852664576
2026-06-19T15:19:01+08:0010.269657784743991
2026-06-19T15:19:50+08:0010.270245559038662
2026-06-19T15:21:04+08:0010.858019853709509
2026-06-19T17:11:25+08:0010.86128526645768
2026-06-19T17:14:17+08:0011.018025078369906
2026-06-19T17:14:22+08:0011.12251828631139
2026-06-19T17:18:20+08:0011.160201149425287
2026-06-19T17:18:24+08:0011.163597178683386
2026-06-19T17:20:07+08:0011.16594827586207
2026-06-19T17:20:10+08:0011.167972831765935
2026-06-19T17:22:16+08:0011.18828369905956
2026-06-19T17:22:19+08:0011.18847962382445
2026-06-19T22:49:06+08:0011.238636363636363
2026-06-19T23:01:23+08:0011.255094043887148
2026-06-19T23:04:57+08:0011.256465517241379
2026-06-19T23:05:02+08:0011.257379832810868
2026-06-19T23:12:01+08:0011.276972309299895
2026-06-19T23:21:05+08:0011.368403866248693
2026-06-19T23:21:09+08:0011.224725705329154
2026-06-19T23:21:13+08:0011.211664054336469
2026-06-19T23:24:57+08:0011.224333855799372
2026-06-20T10:20:40+08:0011.224333855799372
2026-06-20T10:24:06+08:0011.35710553814002
2026-06-20T10:25:52+08:0011.366836468129572
2026-06-20T10:28:10+08:0011.3776776384535
2026-06-20T10:29:21+08:0011.387800417972832
2026-06-20T10:32:59+08:0012.060475444096134
2026-06-20T10:33:33+08:0012.158437826541276
2026-06-20T12:20:40+08:0012.163531870428422
2026-06-20T12:23:26+08:0012.15282131661442
2026-06-20T12:24:20+08:0012.160527690700105
2026-06-20T12:24:56+08:0012.165425809822361
2026-06-20T12:27:15+08:0012.276449843260188
2026-06-20T14:14:39+08:0012.434952978056426
2026-06-20T14:15:51+08:0012.43599791013584
2026-06-20T14:16:42+08:0012.438610240334379
2026-06-20T14:18:25+08:0012.441157262277953
2026-06-20T14:19:50+08:0013.290164576802507
2026-06-20T18:34:05+08:0013.29440961337513
2026-06-20T18:36:14+08:0013.295454545454545
2026-06-20T18:38:26+08:0013.323145245559038
2026-06-20T18:39:59+08:0013.3353578892372
2026-06-20T18:41:11+08:0013.576998432601881
2026-06-20T18:41:39+08:0013.629245036572623
2026-06-20T20:12:39+08:0013.63166144200627
2026-06-20T20:13:49+08:0013.64615987460815
2026-06-20T20:15:05+08:0013.676658829676072
2026-06-20T20:16:18+08:0013.676005747126437
2026-06-20T20:18:45+08:0014.048262800417973
2026-06-20T21:10:21+08:0014.048328108672937
2026-06-20T22:05:43+08:0014.051724137931034
2026-06-20T22:08:03+08:0014.103513584117032
2026-06-20T22:09:41+08:0014.234130094043888
2026-06-21T09:56:32+08:0014.271094566353186
2026-06-21T09:56:58+08:0014.290425809822361
2026-06-21T09:57:13+08:0015.47903605015674
2026-06-21T09:57:21+08:0015.484130094043888
2026-06-21T09:57:39+08:0015.501240856844305
2026-06-21T09:57:47+08:0015.509404388714733
2026-06-21T09:57:55+08:0015.620754963427377
2026-06-21T09:58:12+08:0015.836272204806688
2026-06-21T10:11:00+08:0015.837382445141065
2026-06-21T10:11:07+08:0015.839733542319749
2026-06-21T10:11:14+08:0015.857432079414838
2026-06-21T10:11:38+08:0016.445206374085686
2026-06-21T12:37:31+08:0016.44723092998955
2026-06-21T12:37:35+08:0016.448602403343784
2026-06-21T12:38:57+08:0016.479297283176592
2026-06-21T12:39:01+08:0016.48798328108673
2026-06-21T12:41:32+08:0016.49373040752351
2026-06-21T12:41:59+08:0016.49412225705329
2026-06-21T12:43:19+08:0016.517894461859978
2026-06-21T12:43:23+08:0016.657719435736677
2026-06-21T12:48:55+08:0016.161376698014628
2026-06-21T12:49:00+08:0016.337708986415883
2026-06-21T13:06:20+08:0016.33842737722048
2026-06-21T13:07:19+08:0016.353056426332287
2026-06-21T13:07:40+08:0016.375587774294672
2026-06-21T13:09:29+08:0016.49314263322884
2026-06-21T15:48:59+08:0016.496277429467085
2026-06-21T15:51:44+08:0016.515739289446184
2026-06-21T15:52:38+08:0016.52344566353187
2026-06-21T15:53:09+08:0016.05146290491118
2026-06-21T15:55:04+08:0016.21473354231975
2026-06-21T18:32:02+08:0016.220611285266457
2026-06-21T18:34:04+08:0016.28787878787879
2026-06-21T18:35:18+08:0016.294605538140022
2026-06-21T18:36:10+08:0016.351423719958202
2026-06-21T18:37:54+08:0017.10246865203762
2026-06-21T20:06:54+08:0017.110762800417973
2026-06-21T20:07:49+08:0017.3730407523511
2026-06-21T20:09:09+08:0017.394135318704283
2026-06-21T20:10:06+08:0017.39504963427377
2026-06-21T20:11:21+08:0017.878330721003135
2026-06-21T21:06:11+08:0017.88930250783699
2026-06-21T22:10:26+08:0017.932667189132708
2026-06-21T22:11:10+08:0017.93057732497388
2026-06-21T22:12:41+08:0017.94781870428422
2026-06-21T22:13:15+08:0018.150274294670847
2026-06-21T22:13:25+08:0018.56171630094044
2026-06-22T09:14:01+08:0018.567202194357368
2026-06-22T09:14:18+08:0018.567202194357368
2026-06-22T09:14:25+08:0019.124934691745036
2026-06-22T09:14:38+08:0021.365007836990596
2026-06-22T09:14:43+08:0021.383098223615466
2026-06-22T09:14:56+08:0021.418887147335422
2026-06-22T09:15:03+08:0021.602533960292583
2026-06-22T09:15:09+08:0021.53200104493208
2026-06-22T09:15:22+08:0022.45937826541275
2026-06-22T09:15:29+08:0022.96225182863114
2026-06-22T10:13:04+08:0022.970023510971785
2026-06-22T10:13:09+08:0023.034156217345874
2026-06-22T10:13:21+08:0023.258294148380354
2026-06-22T10:13:27+08:0023.276580459770116
2026-06-22T10:13:46+08:0024.687238766980148
2026-06-22T11:14:36+08:0024.69246342737722
2026-06-22T11:17:56+08:0025.33137408568443
2026-06-22T11:19:56+08:0025.458921107628004
2026-06-22T11:20:49+08:0025.489028213166144
2026-06-22T11:23:37+08:0027.441745036572623
2026-06-22T12:10:33+08:0027.497257053291538
2026-06-22T12:12:34+08:0027.939655172413794
2026-06-22T12:15:20+08:0027.982954545454547
2026-06-22T12:16:41+08:0029.78546238244514
2026-06-22T12:21:45+08:0029.790033960292583
2026-06-22T14:13:34+08:0029.920650470219435
2026-06-22T14:17:27+08:0030.062042842215256
2026-06-22T14:17:30+08:0030.142959770114942
2026-06-22T14:21:35+08:0030.157458202716825
2026-06-22T14:21:37+08:0030.160592998955067
2026-06-22T14:24:07+08:0031.10103187042842
2026-06-22T14:24:10+08:0033.67417711598746
2026-06-22T14:27:47+08:0033.67855276907001
2026-06-22T14:27:49+08:0033.687173458725184
2026-06-22T14:28:00+08:0033.690373563218394
2026-06-22T14:28:04+08:0035.3200104493208
2026-06-22T14:37:48+08:0037.06903082549634
2026-06-22T15:07:52+08:0038.83235370950888
2026-06-22T15:12:49+08:0038.86853448275862
2026-06-22T15:14:13+08:0038.88544932079415
2026-06-22T15:14:52+08:0038.912225705329156
2026-06-22T15:16:02+08:0039.186193834900735
2026-06-22T15:17:40+08:0040.851554336468126
2026-06-22T16:04:09+08:0041.10279519331243
2026-06-22T16:08:55+08:0042.12728578892372
2026-06-22T16:10:00+08:0042.27364158829676
2026-06-22T16:12:53+08:0042.301332288401255
2026-06-22T16:15:57+08:0044.541405433646815
2026-06-22T17:03:50+08:0045.57549634273772
2026-06-22T17:06:52+08:0045.66882183908046
2026-06-22T17:08:04+08:0049.47629310344828
2026-06-22T17:09:52+08:0068.40915621734587
2026-06-22T17:11:37+08:0068.47688087774294
2026-06-22T17:12:55+08:0069.07771682340648
2026-06-22T18:01:22+08:0069.15158045977012
2026-06-22T18:06:09+08:0073.67097701149426
2026-06-22T18:10:57+08:0087.64694357366771
2026-06-22T18:11:09+08:0088.21362330198536
2026-06-22T18:11:15+08:0089.76227795193313
2026-06-22T18:11:22+08:0089.82379832810868
2026-06-22T18:11:42+08:0099.01920062695925
2026-06-22T20:25:13+08:0099.71492946708464
2026-06-22T20:27:04+08:00101.09979101358412
2026-06-22T20:28:33+08:00101.97172152560084
2026-06-22T20:31:54+08:00105.64759665621735
2026-06-22T20:35:00+08:00125.90621734587252
2026-06-22T21:23:30+08:00126.39544148380355
2026-06-22T22:08:34+08:00126.37558777429467
2026-06-22T22:10:12+08:00130.79525862068965
2026-06-22T22:12:05+08:00154.1233672936259
2026-06-23T08:37:18+08:00220.88146551724137
2026-06-23T08:43:56+08:00223.95617816091954
2026-06-23T08:44:00+08:00232.78957680250784
2026-06-23T09:13:40+08:00233.80988766980147
2026-06-23T09:13:53+08:00237.40667450365726
2026-06-23T09:13:59+08:00239.3117816091954
2026-06-23T09:14:06+08:00239.31974921630095
2026-06-23T09:14:19+08:00253.0801985370951
2026-06-23T10:09:10+08:00256.6721525600836
2026-06-23T10:09:49+08:00256.71297021943576
2026-06-23T10:11:20+08:00257.10364420062695
2026-06-23T10:12:11+08:00257.1090647857889
2026-06-23T10:13:06+08:00260.4355407523511
2026-06-23T10:14:31+08:00282.9277037617555
2026-06-23T11:02:26+08:00282.95970480668757
2026-06-23T11:03:23+08:00283.3829022988506
2026-06-23T11:05:45+08:00294.39387408568444
2026-06-23T11:11:14+08:00297.6362330198537
2026-06-23T11:12:12+08:00298.8476358411703
2026-06-23T11:13:02+08:00305.9335815047022
2026-06-23T12:12:52+08:00309.4841300940439
2026-06-23T12:15:22+08:00310.0538793103448
2026-06-23T12:15:52+08:00310.19494514106583
2026-06-23T12:16:12+08:00310.4132053291536
2026-06-23T12:16:45+08:00315.9317528735632
2026-06-23T13:39:30+08:00316.3889106583072
2026-06-23T13:39:58+08:00316.76221264367814
2026-06-23T13:41:03+08:00316.85697492163007
2026-06-23T13:41:37+08:00317.8444357366771
2026-06-23T13:41:59+08:00318.0616509926855
2026-06-23T13:43:41+08:00322.6789446185998
2026-06-23T13:54:13+08:00333.7813479623824
2026-06-23T14:01:37+08:00333.93723876698016
2026-06-23T14:02:59+08:00334.00274294670845
2026-06-23T14:04:44+08:00334.1496212121212
2026-06-23T14:05:38+08:00334.2223092998955
2026-06-23T14:07:27+08:00337.3701671891327
2026-06-23T14:08:28+08:00341.04369122257054
2026-06-23T15:13:48+08:00341.32170846394985
2026-06-23T15:15:29+08:00341.8042711598746
2026-06-23T15:16:25+08:00342.0248824451411
2026-06-23T15:17:55+08:00344.8070141065831
2026-06-23T15:18:57+08:00344.87291013584115
2026-06-23T16:35:18+08:00345.0088166144201
2026-06-23T16:36:32+08:00345.89224137931035
2026-06-23T16:39:24+08:00346.214276384535
2026-06-23T16:40:43+08:00346.374934691745
2026-06-23T16:41:09+08:00351.25346133751304
2026-06-23T17:01:38+08:00351.34149686520374
2026-06-23T17:02:15+08:00351.42829153605015
2026-06-23T17:07:13+08:00352.63662486938347
2026-06-23T17:08:48+08:00352.8674895506792
2026-06-23T17:09:16+08:00356.19167972831764
2026-06-23T18:05:18+08:00358.7485632183908
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TradeGo forecast multiple
TimeMultiple
Broker margin funds trend
TimeBrokerMargin funds
Prediction Model 1-Lot Expected Lots— Lots for expected 1-lot allotment—
Multiple derivation
Recent first-day return
+4.6%
→
Participants
19,874
→
Avg lots
66.9
→
Oversubscription
50x
50x = 19,874 × 66.9 ÷ 26,863 margin-weighted 100% → 874.1x
1x6530.0x
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.55
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.65
This model does not support allocation strategy adjustment

Actual vs Predicted Comparison

Using the actual oversubscription ratio 1296.89x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.546, Pool B α=0.646) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier

Lots Subscription Amount (HKD) Actual Expected Lots Predicted Expected Lots Error

LogoCrealights Allotment Prediction Matrix

Rows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates expected ≥1 lot. Non-preset multiples are interpolated from the nearest grid points.

Offering Mechanism

Mechanism B

Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).

Allocation Strategy Coefficient α

α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].

  • α → 0: Per-capita allocation — regardless of lots subscribed, every allottee receives the same number of shares. More favorable to retail (small) applications.
  • α → 1: Proportional allocation — allotted shares are proportional to lots subscribed. More favorable to large applications.
  • Historical actual α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0. α varies widely across IPOs, reflecting each issuer's allocation strategy.
Allotment Rate Definition

The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").

Expected Allotment Lots

Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier

Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.

About this page

This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Crealights (01191): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 22087 allotment-tier records across 592 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation). You can override the oversubscription multiple and the allocation-method α right on the page, replacing cibo's defaults to see expected lots under your own scenario. How allotment rates and clawback work is explained in How Hong Kong IPO Allotment Rates Work.
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.

Cibo — HK IPO Allotment Forecasts, Allottee Profiling & Stock Connect