Margin dynamics Margin multiple5473.14x Margin funds3356.1100M TradeGo forecast multiple7060.35x
Rank Broker Margin funds
1 富途证券富途 2010.6100M
2 辉立证券辉立 647.0100M
3 老虎国际老虎 315.6100M
4 华泰国际华泰 138.8100M
5 致富证券致富 56.8100M
6 华盛证券华盛 45.5100M
7 复星国际复星 40.9100M
8 盈立证券盈立 39.7100M
9 熊猫证券熊猫 24.4100M
Margin multiple
TimeMultiple
2026-06-11T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-11T10:10:22+08:000.17318982387475537
2026-06-11T10:10:33+08:000.17530984996738422
2026-06-11T10:10:48+08:000.8276255707762558
2026-06-11T11:16:43+08:001.1285061969993477
2026-06-11T11:17:09+08:001.1485649054142204
2026-06-11T11:17:33+08:004.410143509458578
2026-06-11T11:51:24+08:004.434605348988911
2026-06-11T12:18:52+08:005.255218525766471
2026-06-11T12:19:16+08:005.2659817351598175
2026-06-11T12:19:51+08:007.043542074363992
2026-06-11T12:20:15+08:007.112361382909328
2026-06-11T13:40:25+08:007.113992172211351
2026-06-11T13:41:11+08:007.243476842791911
2026-06-11T13:41:26+08:008.988421395955642
2026-06-11T13:41:45+08:009.003424657534246
2026-06-11T14:05:12+08:009.069308545335943
2026-06-11T14:05:32+08:009.323874755381604
2026-06-11T14:05:54+08:009.346705805609915
2026-06-11T14:06:07+08:009.378995433789955
2026-06-11T14:06:27+08:0010.651011089367254
2026-06-11T14:07:19+08:0011.30658838878017
2026-06-11T15:07:09+08:0011.420254403131116
2026-06-11T15:07:43+08:0011.760763209393346
2026-06-11T15:08:10+08:0011.779354207436398
2026-06-11T15:08:35+08:0011.787018917155903
2026-06-11T15:08:45+08:0013.809197651663405
2026-06-11T16:09:02+08:0013.93966079582518
2026-06-11T16:09:07+08:0014.03750815394651
2026-06-11T16:09:47+08:0015.965590345727332
2026-06-11T16:10:13+08:0016.076647097195043
2026-06-11T16:10:40+08:0016.103228962818005
2026-06-11T16:10:52+08:0016.122961513372474
2026-06-11T16:11:07+08:0024.521526418786692
2026-06-11T16:44:29+08:0024.68460534898891
2026-06-11T17:12:17+08:0024.739399869536857
2026-06-11T17:12:35+08:0024.855022831050228
2026-06-11T17:12:50+08:0026.006196999347683
2026-06-11T17:13:03+08:0026.145303326810176
2026-06-11T17:13:30+08:0026.35241356816699
2026-06-11T17:13:46+08:0034.669439008480104
2026-06-11T17:41:23+08:0035.07224396607958
2026-06-11T17:46:10+08:0039.96461187214612
2026-06-11T18:09:03+08:0039.989073711676454
2026-06-11T18:09:17+08:0040.220319634703195
2026-06-11T18:09:32+08:0040.66405740378343
2026-06-11T18:09:46+08:0040.6761252446184
2026-06-11T18:09:56+08:0040.78196347031963
2026-06-11T18:11:20+08:0042.5073385518591
2026-06-11T18:11:43+08:0048.24771689497717
2026-06-11T19:56:20+08:0049.80088062622309
2026-06-11T19:56:25+08:0049.830724070450096
2026-06-11T19:56:30+08:0050.37247227658187
2026-06-11T19:56:48+08:0050.41422048271363
2026-06-11T19:56:52+08:0050.66601435094586
2026-06-11T19:57:06+08:0054.759295499021526
2026-06-11T20:12:11+08:0054.801532941943904
2026-06-11T20:12:25+08:0055.087899543378995
2026-06-11T20:12:38+08:0055.00456621004566
2026-06-11T20:12:44+08:0055.00896934116112
2026-06-11T20:13:00+08:0059.06963470319635
2026-06-11T22:02:55+08:0059.10061969993477
2026-06-11T22:02:59+08:0060.11187214611872
2026-06-11T22:03:13+08:0060.16846053489889
2026-06-11T22:03:18+08:0060.24412915851272
2026-06-11T22:03:32+08:0063.97863666014351
2026-06-11T22:03:41+08:0064.74608610567515
2026-06-11T22:03:51+08:0064.85110893672538
2026-06-11T22:03:55+08:0064.87785388127854
2026-06-11T22:12:02+08:0072.39579256360078
2026-06-12T08:55:19+08:0075.49739073711676
2026-06-12T08:55:24+08:0078.45270711024136
2026-06-12T08:55:51+08:0078.56148075668624
2026-06-12T08:55:56+08:0078.62051532941943
2026-06-12T08:56:11+08:0078.62051532941943
2026-06-12T08:56:24+08:0098.85861056751467
2026-06-12T08:56:40+08:00100.48939986953685
2026-06-12T09:18:02+08:00101.73255055446836
2026-06-12T09:18:26+08:00101.53424657534246
2026-06-12T09:18:38+08:00101.63225701239399
2026-06-12T09:18:53+08:00103.16519895629484
2026-06-12T09:19:03+08:00103.7426614481409
2026-06-12T09:19:47+08:00103.81914546640574
2026-06-12T09:20:46+08:00105.3013698630137
2026-06-12T10:07:29+08:00105.91519895629484
2026-06-12T10:08:37+08:00106.176614481409
2026-06-12T10:08:47+08:00106.20662100456622
2026-06-12T10:09:04+08:00108.63649706457926
2026-06-12T10:09:13+08:00108.7279843444227
2026-06-12T10:09:35+08:00108.89073711676451
2026-06-12T11:07:24+08:00109.25309849967384
2026-06-12T11:07:51+08:00109.61301369863014
2026-06-12T11:08:28+08:00111.1329093281148
2026-06-12T11:08:37+08:00111.12018917155903
2026-06-12T11:08:46+08:00116.50179386823223
2026-06-12T11:09:12+08:00116.61399217221135
2026-06-12T12:07:13+08:00117.10322896281801
2026-06-12T12:07:23+08:00118.13062622309198
2026-06-12T12:07:57+08:00118.12932159165035
2026-06-12T12:08:20+08:00119.15296803652969
2026-06-12T12:08:31+08:00126.4262883235486
2026-06-12T12:09:24+08:00126.5295172863666
2026-06-12T12:09:31+08:00126.57208088714938
2026-06-12T13:39:56+08:00126.54044357469014
2026-06-12T13:41:12+08:00127.09931506849315
2026-06-12T13:41:19+08:00127.10926288323549
2026-06-12T13:41:30+08:00127.48809523809524
2026-06-12T13:41:35+08:00127.44960861056751
2026-06-12T13:41:48+08:00130.5807240704501
2026-06-12T14:02:25+08:00131.15867579908675
2026-06-12T14:03:03+08:00131.10241356816698
2026-06-12T14:03:56+08:00132.85502283105023
2026-06-12T14:05:14+08:00133.36040443574691
2026-06-12T14:05:21+08:00133.56050228310502
2026-06-12T14:05:56+08:00138.12671232876713
2026-06-12T15:06:35+08:00138.5081539465101
2026-06-12T15:06:54+08:00138.675799086758
2026-06-12T15:07:17+08:00139.4344422700587
2026-06-12T15:07:25+08:00139.57126549249836
2026-06-12T15:07:52+08:00139.52250489236792
2026-06-12T15:10:01+08:00143.24070450097847
2026-06-12T16:06:51+08:00143.72994129158513
2026-06-12T16:07:04+08:00143.9787997390737
2026-06-12T16:07:39+08:00144.05332681017612
2026-06-12T16:08:01+08:00144.4044357469015
2026-06-12T16:08:16+08:00144.4620026092629
2026-06-12T16:08:32+08:00144.6627527723418
2026-06-12T16:08:53+08:00149.31050228310502
2026-06-12T17:04:02+08:00149.5799086757991
2026-06-12T17:05:27+08:00149.62932159165035
2026-06-12T17:05:53+08:00150.85485975212003
2026-06-12T17:06:09+08:00150.97602739726028
2026-06-12T17:06:30+08:00151.1921069797782
2026-06-12T17:06:51+08:00159.65590345727333
2026-06-12T17:16:14+08:00182.4869536855838
2026-06-12T18:04:21+08:00183.7204827136334
2026-06-12T18:05:08+08:00184.68183300717547
2026-06-12T18:05:40+08:00184.73287671232876
2026-06-12T18:06:10+08:00186.06409001956948
2026-06-12T18:06:15+08:00186.22472276581865
2026-06-12T18:06:50+08:00186.24054142204827
2026-06-12T18:07:16+08:00188.57257012393998
2026-06-12T20:04:21+08:00188.7424983692107
2026-06-12T20:05:43+08:00191.54745596868884
2026-06-12T20:05:57+08:00191.65688193085452
2026-06-12T20:06:21+08:00193.53163731245922
2026-06-12T20:06:26+08:00193.57615786040444
2026-06-12T20:06:39+08:00193.61513372472277
2026-06-12T20:06:53+08:00195.8166992824527
2026-06-12T22:04:12+08:00195.83121330724072
2026-06-12T22:04:42+08:00195.8530658838878
2026-06-12T22:04:52+08:00197.69585779517286
2026-06-12T22:05:26+08:00198.10453359425964
2026-06-12T22:05:31+08:00198.27511415525115
2026-06-12T22:05:44+08:00198.2866927592955
2026-06-12T22:05:49+08:00201.98858447488584
2026-06-13T10:09:58+08:00201.98858447488584
2026-06-13T10:12:14+08:00204.2656555772994
2026-06-13T10:12:36+08:00204.42465753424656
2026-06-13T10:12:58+08:00219.52576647097194
2026-06-13T10:13:14+08:00219.96493803000652
2026-06-13T10:13:36+08:00223.14481409001957
2026-06-13T10:13:52+08:00223.16829745596868
2026-06-13T10:14:09+08:00225.04370515329418
2026-06-13T12:56:59+08:00225.33349641226354
2026-06-13T12:57:49+08:00225.3542074363992
2026-06-13T12:58:56+08:00225.80691454664057
2026-06-13T12:59:40+08:00225.80446836268754
2026-06-13T13:01:14+08:00227.46787345075018
2026-06-13T13:02:03+08:00228.3974233529028
2026-06-13T13:02:17+08:00228.4264514024788
2026-06-13T13:02:40+08:00228.43183300717547
2026-06-13T13:03:36+08:00228.83643183300717
2026-06-13T13:04:02+08:00228.86839530332682
2026-06-13T13:06:16+08:00230.38502935420743
2026-06-13T15:25:36+08:00232.32566862361384
2026-06-13T15:26:00+08:00232.4041095890411
2026-06-13T15:26:15+08:00232.4339530332681
2026-06-13T15:26:41+08:00233.45841487279844
2026-06-13T15:26:46+08:00233.65215264187867
2026-06-13T15:27:12+08:00233.67465753424656
2026-06-13T15:27:22+08:00236.0882257012394
2026-06-13T18:27:07+08:00236.09246575342465
2026-06-13T18:27:11+08:00236.09996738421395
2026-06-13T18:27:44+08:00236.5668623613829
2026-06-13T18:28:16+08:00236.59686888454013
2026-06-13T18:28:55+08:00237.52739726027397
2026-06-13T18:29:24+08:00237.5448467058056
2026-06-13T18:30:42+08:00239.81164383561645
2026-06-13T18:30:59+08:00241.91536203522506
2026-06-13T20:09:37+08:00241.95352250489236
2026-06-13T20:09:52+08:00242.41014350945858
2026-06-13T20:10:37+08:00242.4259621656882
2026-06-13T20:11:02+08:00243.09898891063276
2026-06-13T20:11:07+08:00243.16095890410958
2026-06-13T20:11:23+08:00243.1617742987606
2026-06-13T20:11:27+08:00245.15133724722764
2026-06-13T22:33:05+08:00245.22472276581865
2026-06-13T22:33:25+08:00245.38926940639269
2026-06-13T22:33:30+08:00245.57077625570776
2026-06-13T22:33:39+08:00247.29941291585126
2026-06-13T22:33:59+08:00247.82126549249836
2026-06-13T22:34:04+08:00247.82648401826484
2026-06-13T22:34:19+08:00247.8455642530985
2026-06-13T22:34:23+08:00249.24804305283757
2026-06-14T09:39:16+08:00249.3538812785388
2026-06-14T09:39:56+08:00249.42824527071102
2026-06-14T09:40:00+08:00250.79076973255056
2026-06-14T09:40:05+08:00250.8093607305936
2026-06-14T09:45:14+08:00250.83529028049577
2026-06-14T09:45:23+08:00250.84279191128508
2026-06-14T09:46:44+08:00255.0665362035225
2026-06-14T09:46:53+08:00255.5883887801696
2026-06-14T09:47:22+08:00255.6038812785388
2026-06-14T09:49:01+08:00256.72211350293543
2026-06-14T12:39:22+08:00256.7933789954338
2026-06-14T12:39:27+08:00256.8812785388128
2026-06-14T12:39:32+08:00256.884703196347
2026-06-14T12:41:33+08:00256.9114481409002
2026-06-14T12:41:42+08:00256.912100456621
2026-06-14T12:41:51+08:00256.92074363992174
2026-06-14T12:43:42+08:00256.93150684931504
2026-06-14T12:43:46+08:00256.969341161122
2026-06-14T12:43:52+08:00257.01353555120676
2026-06-14T12:45:52+08:00257.016960208741
2026-06-14T12:45:56+08:00257.0815394651011
2026-06-14T12:46:01+08:00257.13486627527726
2026-06-14T12:47:33+08:00257.9013372472277
2026-06-14T12:47:38+08:00259.01027397260276
2026-06-14T12:47:42+08:00259.7930528375734
2026-06-14T12:51:20+08:00259.867742987606
2026-06-14T12:51:34+08:00259.87866927592955
2026-06-14T16:13:15+08:00259.98972602739724
2026-06-14T16:13:19+08:00259.98679060665364
2026-06-14T16:13:24+08:00260.0357142857143
2026-06-14T16:13:29+08:00260.090345727332
2026-06-14T16:13:54+08:00260.0931180691455
2026-06-14T16:13:58+08:00260.1017612524462
2026-06-14T16:14:03+08:00260.13584474885846
2026-06-14T16:14:08+08:00260.1687866927593
2026-06-14T16:25:18+08:00261.62018917155905
2026-06-14T16:25:23+08:00263.03897586431833
2026-06-14T16:25:27+08:00264.115296803653
2026-06-14T16:25:31+08:00266.52886497064577
2026-06-14T16:26:37+08:00266.57974559686886
2026-06-14T16:26:45+08:00266.6834637964775
2026-06-14T16:26:49+08:00266.6854207436399
2026-06-14T16:26:53+08:00266.6836268754077
2026-06-14T16:29:42+08:00266.71118721461187
2026-06-14T16:29:46+08:00266.7195042400522
2026-06-14T16:29:50+08:00266.7769080234834
2026-06-14T16:29:54+08:00266.85665362035223
2026-06-14T16:30:55+08:00266.92009132420094
2026-06-14T16:31:03+08:00267.01614481409
2026-06-14T16:31:11+08:00267.02853881278537
2026-06-14T16:31:15+08:00267.03913894324853
2026-06-14T19:09:47+08:00267.80560991519894
2026-06-14T19:10:01+08:00269.76255707762556
2026-06-14T19:10:51+08:00271.1487279843444
2026-06-14T19:11:30+08:00271.1668297455969
2026-06-14T19:11:35+08:00271.1673189823875
2026-06-14T19:11:47+08:00271.18770384866275
2026-06-14T19:15:04+08:00271.3824200913242
2026-06-14T19:15:08+08:00271.43639921722115
2026-06-14T19:15:12+08:00271.7345075016308
2026-06-14T19:15:48+08:00271.7131441617743
2026-06-14T19:15:55+08:00271.7196673189824
2026-06-14T19:17:17+08:00271.7229288975864
2026-06-14T19:17:25+08:00271.8243639921722
2026-06-14T19:17:38+08:00271.8493150684931
2026-06-14T19:18:24+08:00271.9049249836921
2026-06-14T19:18:28+08:00271.91307893020223
2026-06-14T19:18:32+08:00271.970156555773
2026-06-14T22:04:48+08:00272.033105022831
2026-06-14T22:05:01+08:00272.0366927592955
2026-06-14T22:05:32+08:00272.11187214611874
2026-06-14T22:05:37+08:00272.14383561643837
2026-06-14T22:05:42+08:00272.17025440313114
2026-06-14T22:06:21+08:00273.54011741682973
2026-06-14T22:06:30+08:00276.00260926288325
2026-06-14T22:06:50+08:00277.7638617090672
2026-06-14T22:08:00+08:00277.69487932159166
2026-06-14T22:08:04+08:00277.9665688193085
2026-06-14T22:08:08+08:00277.76973255055447
2026-06-14T22:09:37+08:00277.81441617742985
2026-06-14T22:09:41+08:00277.8158838878017
2026-06-14T22:09:56+08:00277.8171885192433
2026-06-15T08:34:05+08:00280.0350619699935
2026-06-15T08:34:16+08:00281.8330071754729
2026-06-15T08:35:09+08:00281.899217221135
2026-06-15T08:35:19+08:00282.1254076973255
2026-06-15T08:35:41+08:00282.1254076973255
2026-06-15T08:35:58+08:00298.62899543378995
2026-06-15T09:23:23+08:00303.51810176125247
2026-06-15T09:23:30+08:00304.35730593607303
2026-06-15T09:23:43+08:00304.8338225701239
2026-06-15T09:23:55+08:00306.4425962165688
2026-06-15T09:24:01+08:00307.92058056099154
2026-06-15T09:24:09+08:00308.04533594259624
2026-06-15T09:24:15+08:00319.68917155903455
2026-06-15T10:06:00+08:00320.11986301369865
2026-06-15T10:06:13+08:00320.5901826484018
2026-06-15T10:06:20+08:00323.2075994781474
2026-06-15T10:06:26+08:00323.9489562948467
2026-06-15T10:06:46+08:00347.41601435094583
2026-06-15T11:07:33+08:00347.9106327462492
2026-06-15T11:08:54+08:00352.5358773646445
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TradeGo forecast multiple
TimeMultiple
Broker margin funds trend
TimeBrokerMargin funds
Prediction Model 1-Lot Expected Lots— Lots for expected 1-lot allotment—
Multiple derivation
Recent first-day return
+4.6%
→
Participants
22,746
→
Avg lots
81.3
→
Oversubscription
109x
109x = 22,746 × 81.3 ÷ 17,033 margin-weighted 100% → 7060.4x
1x16308.0x
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.37
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.47
This model does not support allocation strategy adjustment

Actual vs Predicted Comparison

Using the actual oversubscription ratio 7181.21x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.370, Pool B α=0.470) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier

Lots Subscription Amount (HKD) Actual Expected Lots Predicted Expected Lots Error

LogoHQVT Allotment Prediction Matrix

Rows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates expected ≥1 lot. Non-preset multiples are interpolated from the nearest grid points.

Offering Mechanism

Mechanism B

Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).

Allocation Strategy Coefficient α

α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].

  • α → 0: Per-capita allocation — regardless of lots subscribed, every allottee receives the same number of shares. More favorable to retail (small) applications.
  • α → 1: Proportional allocation — allotted shares are proportional to lots subscribed. More favorable to large applications.
  • Historical actual α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0. α varies widely across IPOs, reflecting each issuer's allocation strategy.
Allotment Rate Definition

The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").

Expected Allotment Lots

Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier

Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.

About this page

This page shows expected-lot forecasts for HQVT (01392): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 22087 allotment-tier records across 592 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation). You can override the oversubscription multiple and the allocation-method α right on the page, replacing cibo's defaults to see expected lots under your own scenario. How allotment rates and clawback work is explained in How Hong Kong IPO Allotment Rates Work.
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.

Cibo — HK IPO Allotment Forecasts, Allottee Profiling & Stock Connect