Margin dynamics Margin multiple2.45x Margin funds59.5100M TradeGo forecast multiple4.11x
Rank Broker Margin funds
1 富途证券富途 27.9100M
2 辉立证券辉立 20.0100M
3 华泰国际华泰 4.3100M
4 老虎国际老虎 2.3100M
5 盈立证券盈立 1.3100M
6 信诚证券信诚 1.0100M
7 复星国际复星 941010K
8 致富证券致富 434610K
9 长桥证券长桥 363510K
Margin multiple
TimeMultiple
2026-06-30T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-30T10:27:59+08:000.00026786229405510547
2026-06-30T10:28:05+08:000.0008777641328267301
2026-06-30T11:18:15+08:000.001767891140763696
2026-06-30T11:18:21+08:000.004261070954661216
2026-06-30T11:18:27+08:000.012931567365306476
2026-06-30T11:18:34+08:000.014369781836463888
2026-06-30T11:18:41+08:000.08030511575772062
2026-06-30T12:14:25+08:000.08189580568857094
2026-06-30T12:17:18+08:000.08346176986920079
2026-06-30T12:19:08+08:000.08998112601066505
2026-06-30T12:22:05+08:000.09153884827455473
2026-06-30T12:24:37+08:000.09237952378205075
2026-06-30T12:26:48+08:000.11751736983952989
2026-06-30T14:05:12+08:000.11976741310959277
2026-06-30T14:05:15+08:000.12075232216004154
2026-06-30T14:07:24+08:000.12087595091114389
2026-06-30T14:07:26+08:000.12119326470563994
2026-06-30T14:11:10+08:000.12077292695189193
2026-06-30T14:11:12+08:000.12197624679595487
2026-06-30T14:14:42+08:000.12400375831403351
2026-06-30T14:14:45+08:000.12486503861337993
2026-06-30T14:16:24+08:000.1256768674122854
2026-06-30T14:16:26+08:000.12578401232990744
2026-06-30T14:20:05+08:000.1587516792905358
2026-06-30T14:20:08+08:000.1698782668897479
2026-06-30T14:31:18+08:000.17324508987810205
2026-06-30T15:03:40+08:000.17459676422348783
2026-06-30T15:05:29+08:000.1788248675111884
2026-06-30T15:09:07+08:000.1800158244801411
2026-06-30T15:10:18+08:000.18866983705730606
2026-06-30T15:12:00+08:000.18897478797669187
2026-06-30T15:17:16+08:000.18916847302008555
2026-06-30T15:21:38+08:000.1932894313901641
2026-06-30T16:29:04+08:000.2069462874286044
2026-06-30T16:30:58+08:000.20935704807510033
2026-06-30T16:32:57+08:000.20949716065968302
2026-06-30T16:37:43+08:000.20969908761981687
2026-06-30T16:39:39+08:000.21048619066850185
2026-06-30T16:41:41+08:000.3089770957133791
2026-06-30T17:06:53+08:000.3104812455184578
2026-06-30T17:08:34+08:000.3108809784803554
2026-06-30T17:09:39+08:000.3137038349638592
2026-06-30T17:11:17+08:000.3154634841878827
2026-06-30T17:14:51+08:000.31571486264845755
2026-06-30T17:17:50+08:000.3260172585736539
2026-06-30T17:48:14+08:000.6556939281799375
2026-06-30T18:07:21+08:000.6571032959425044
2026-06-30T18:12:25+08:000.6580840840345831
2026-06-30T18:17:09+08:000.658075842117843
2026-06-30T18:18:13+08:000.658079963076213
2026-06-30T18:21:02+08:000.6584013978290791
2026-06-30T18:24:42+08:000.6585497523304019
2026-06-30T18:25:50+08:000.6948141859870932
2026-06-30T20:08:51+08:000.6950861692395184
2026-06-30T20:12:51+08:000.6956342567027388
2026-06-30T20:15:23+08:000.6966480124617781
2026-06-30T20:17:14+08:000.698584862895715
2026-06-30T20:19:26+08:000.7282557631602805
2026-06-30T22:00:15+08:000.7282846098688711
2026-06-30T22:07:03+08:000.7296156794224065
2026-06-30T22:08:39+08:000.7312764256455482
2026-06-30T22:10:55+08:000.7349852881786189
2026-07-01T08:44:58+08:000.7352119408889731
2026-07-01T08:45:01+08:000.7453082888956656
2026-07-01T08:58:15+08:000.8058863769358202
2026-07-01T09:02:17+08:000.8058863769358202
2026-07-01T09:05:39+08:000.8102092622660326
2026-07-01T09:10:42+08:000.8117092911127411
2026-07-01T09:12:36+08:000.812067814490938
2026-07-01T09:18:06+08:000.8131516265422687
2026-07-01T09:25:02+08:000.8228564835038037
2026-07-01T10:18:14+08:000.8230336847137171
2026-07-01T10:20:45+08:000.8253537842760712
2026-07-01T10:22:13+08:000.8233221517996225
2026-07-01T10:24:56+08:000.8236435865524886
2026-07-01T10:26:31+08:000.8195226281824101
2026-07-01T10:28:31+08:000.8196668617253628
2026-07-01T11:07:33+08:000.8196586198086226
2026-07-01T11:09:04+08:000.8197946114348353
2026-07-01T11:10:33+08:000.8198193371850557
2026-07-01T11:13:31+08:000.8210061731956384
2026-07-01T11:16:15+08:000.8210679875711896
2026-07-01T11:20:13+08:000.8276615209633152
2026-07-01T12:11:08+08:000.8288730827241183
2026-07-01T12:13:49+08:000.828910171349449
2026-07-01T12:16:19+08:000.8292563318525357
2026-07-01T12:18:06+08:000.8293469929366774
2026-07-01T12:19:58+08:000.8292316061023152
2026-07-01T12:21:05+08:000.8378856186794801
2026-07-01T14:11:39+08:000.8377166593863069
2026-07-01T14:11:41+08:000.8378485300541494
2026-07-01T14:13:54+08:000.8378732558043699
2026-07-01T14:13:57+08:000.838087545639614
2026-07-01T14:15:33+08:000.8381946905572359
2026-07-01T14:15:36+08:000.8404941853277398
2026-07-01T14:19:31+08:000.8392578978167162
2026-07-01T14:19:34+08:000.8462635270458497
2026-07-01T14:23:03+08:000.8465272683815348
2026-07-01T14:25:56+08:000.846539631256645
2026-07-01T14:25:59+08:000.8466302923407868
2026-07-01T14:31:51+08:000.8504957512919205
2026-07-01T15:09:43+08:000.850524598000511
2026-07-01T15:11:22+08:000.8508583956284873
2026-07-01T15:13:00+08:000.8509696615044795
2026-07-01T15:15:24+08:000.850734766877385
2026-07-01T15:17:45+08:000.8507842183778259
2026-07-01T15:20:19+08:000.8466632600077474
2026-07-01T16:14:59+08:000.8467250743832986
2026-07-01T16:16:48+08:000.8467003486330781
2026-07-01T16:18:06+08:000.8467498001335191
2026-07-01T16:20:44+08:000.8467786468421096
2026-07-01T16:22:06+08:000.8397730176129761
2026-07-01T16:23:48+08:000.8398348319885273
2026-07-01T17:03:54+08:000.8400450008654012
2026-07-01T17:06:30+08:000.8408609506226769
2026-07-01T17:09:26+08:000.840976337457039
2026-07-01T17:12:15+08:000.8413678285021965
2026-07-01T18:02:29+08:000.8415079410867792
2026-07-01T18:05:17+08:000.8415244249202595
2026-07-01T18:08:31+08:000.84155327162885
2026-07-01T18:10:02+08:000.8411411757918421
2026-07-01T18:11:20+08:000.8413183770017555
2026-07-01T18:20:30+08:000.8429420345995665
2026-07-01T20:55:24+08:000.8423486165942752
2026-07-01T20:58:25+08:000.8428225268068342
2026-07-01T20:59:58+08:000.8428719783072751
2026-07-01T21:01:06+08:000.8453445533293222
2026-07-01T21:02:05+08:000.854822757580503
2026-07-01T21:03:51+08:000.8553832079188336
2026-07-01T22:06:29+08:000.8560837708417469
2026-07-01T22:10:15+08:000.854929902498125
2026-07-01T22:14:58+08:000.8697653526304078
2026-07-02T08:44:51+08:000.8699095861733604
2026-07-02T08:44:54+08:000.8670413991477858
2026-07-02T08:52:16+08:000.8674534949847936
2026-07-02T08:59:15+08:000.8674534949847936
2026-07-02T09:13:05+08:000.8680427920317149
2026-07-02T09:19:04+08:000.8691224831246754
2026-07-02T09:26:59+08:000.8687351130378881
2026-07-02T09:29:46+08:000.8687186292044078
2026-07-02T09:33:11+08:000.8843782710107062
2026-07-02T09:52:26+08:000.8862285813188715
2026-07-02T10:13:00+08:000.8863110004862731
2026-07-02T10:14:27+08:000.8860060495668872
2026-07-02T10:17:03+08:000.8859524771080762
2026-07-02T10:19:19+08:000.8836694661710527
2026-07-02T10:21:23+08:000.8832985799177456
2026-07-02T10:25:40+08:000.8758808548516043
2026-07-02T11:10:03+08:000.8765113614822263
2026-07-02T11:12:12+08:000.8762764668551318
2026-07-02T11:14:04+08:000.8763671279392735
2026-07-02T11:15:15+08:000.8714219778951793
2026-07-02T11:17:05+08:000.8635550683666994
2026-07-02T11:18:59+08:000.863641608492471
2026-07-02T12:11:40+08:000.8637569953268333
2026-07-02T12:15:33+08:000.8635221006997388
2026-07-02T12:16:55+08:000.863748753410093
2026-07-02T12:20:17+08:000.8639754061204473
2026-07-02T12:21:49+08:000.8660358853054867
2026-07-02T12:24:21+08:000.8663078685579119
2026-07-02T14:08:21+08:000.8663531990999827
2026-07-02T14:08:24+08:000.8662501751407308
2026-07-02T14:11:50+08:000.8644905259167072
2026-07-02T14:14:48+08:000.8642803570398332
2026-07-02T14:14:51+08:000.8653518062160536
2026-07-02T14:19:08+08:000.8749989697604075
2026-07-02T14:19:11+08:000.8750855098861792
2026-07-02T14:24:52+08:000.8752627110960925
2026-07-02T14:24:54+08:000.8744385194220768
2026-07-02T14:24:57+08:000.874290164920754
2026-07-02T14:24:59+08:000.8705813023876833
2026-07-02T14:37:26+08:000.8691224831246754
2026-07-02T15:01:14+08:000.8691925394169668
2026-07-02T15:05:29+08:000.869040063957274
2026-07-02T15:06:40+08:000.8693408939182896
2026-07-02T15:11:58+08:000.8684507669103527
2026-07-02T15:13:22+08:000.7955098037599624
2026-07-02T16:05:21+08:000.798423321327608
2026-07-02T16:06:07+08:000.7986252482877418
2026-07-02T16:07:34+08:000.8020827323602377
2026-07-02T16:10:35+08:000.8014316209377653
2026-07-02T16:11:55+08:000.8001953334267418
2026-07-02T16:14:35+08:000.8001870915100016
2026-07-02T17:04:33+08:000.808136420205883
2026-07-02T17:06:04+08:000.8082188393732846
2026-07-02T17:07:23+08:000.8080581219968516
2026-07-02T17:08:46+08:000.8070155195292217
2026-07-02T17:11:29+08:000.8073245914069777
2026-07-02T17:14:29+08:000.8130939331250876
2026-07-02T17:52:06+08:001.307608937534513
2026-07-02T18:12:12+08:001.3096735376779223
2026-07-02T18:16:24+08:001.30955815084356
2026-07-02T18:17:34+08:001.3095787556354106
2026-07-02T18:23:00+08:001.309702384386513
2026-07-02T18:24:16+08:001.3158838219416307
2026-07-02T20:41:51+08:001.3158920638583709
2026-07-02T20:44:46+08:001.315784918940749
2026-07-02T20:45:51+08:001.315896184816741
2026-07-02T20:46:37+08:001.3159209105669614
2026-07-02T20:49:49+08:001.316633836364985
2026-07-02T20:52:03+08:001.3141612613429379
2026-07-02T21:49:42+08:001.314120051759237
2026-07-02T22:06:52+08:001.313534875670686
2026-07-02T22:10:00+08:001.3131475055838986
2026-07-02T22:12:11+08:001.32056523065004
2026-07-03T08:40:39+08:001.3196957084339533
2026-07-03T08:40:42+08:001.3227905481698823
2026-07-03T08:46:25+08:001.3227905481698823
2026-07-03T08:48:29+08:001.3429832441832672
2026-07-03T09:02:20+08:001.3420931171753303
2026-07-03T09:07:03+08:001.3441329915685192
2026-07-03T09:10:00+08:001.3445904179475978
2026-07-03T09:12:50+08:001.3460080276269049
2026-07-03T09:14:37+08:001.348480602648952
2026-07-03T09:20:06+08:001.3508254279615268
2026-07-03T10:16:32+08:001.3522224328489834
2026-07-03T10:17:57+08:001.3527911251040543
2026-07-03T10:19:01+08:001.353512292818818
2026-07-03T10:20:31+08:001.3596937303739358
2026-07-03T10:27:03+08:001.3596772465404554
2026-07-03T10:30:08+08:001.359697851332306
2026-07-03T11:12:47+08:001.3605632525900224
2026-07-03T11:14:05+08:001.3615193149318805
2026-07-03T11:14:57+08:001.3620179508946602
2026-07-03T11:16:21+08:001.3772654968639506
2026-07-03T11:18:24+08:001.3774797866991948
2026-07-03T11:19:24+08:001.3787902514608796
2026-07-03T12:27:48+08:001.381225737857596
2026-07-03T12:28:33+08:001.3818315187379977
2026-07-03T12:30:21+08:001.3817614624457064
2026-07-03T12:31:02+08:001.402366254296099
2026-07-03T12:32:54+08:001.4033470423881778
2026-07-03T12:35:02+08:001.403722049599855
2026-07-03T13:39:43+08:001.4037426543917053
2026-07-03T13:40:29+08:001.403886887934658
2026-07-03T13:41:58+08:001.4039445813518392
2026-07-03T13:43:37+08:001.4064171563738863
2026-07-03T13:44:39+08:001.406771558793713
2026-07-03T13:45:55+08:001.4068251312525242
2026-07-03T14:01:01+08:001.407286678589973
2026-07-03T14:04:12+08:001.4132126167261458
2026-07-03T14:06:26+08:001.4134516323116104
2026-07-03T14:07:34+08:001.4146590731140434
2026-07-03T14:09:08+08:001.4148321533655868
2026-07-03T14:10:50+08:001.425546645127791
2026-07-03T14:13:14+08:001.4253776858346177
2026-07-03T15:19:08+08:001.4254147744599484
2026-07-03T15:19:54+08:001.4342253834551764
2026-07-03T15:21:15+08:001.434320165497688
2026-07-03T15:22:11+08:001.446270944770916
2026-07-03T15:24:51+08:001.4481707065795222
2026-07-03T15:25:43+08:001.449955081553766
2026-07-03T16:04:34+08:001.4515457714846165
2026-07-03T16:05:58+08:001.4523369954916716
2026-07-03T16:06:43+08:001.5125029876948184
2026-07-03T16:07:37+08:001.5140895566672985
2026-07-03T16:09:18+08:001.5139164764157553
2026-07-03T17:09:02+08:001.5157956334325111
2026-07-03T17:10:46+08:001.5186061270409046
2026-07-03T17:12:51+08:001.5213465643570068
2026-07-03T17:13:44+08:001.5222119656147233
2026-07-03T17:15:33+08:001.525920828147794
2026-07-03T17:19:10+08:001.563009453478501
2026-07-03T18:34:17+08:001.564579538617501
2026-07-03T18:37:36+08:001.5648638847450362
2026-07-03T18:39:35+08:001.5651358679974614
2026-07-03T18:40:29+08:001.565523238084249
2026-07-03T18:43:15+08:001.5984909050448772
2026-07-03T18:50:40+08:001.6030074754184833
2026-07-03T21:05:18+08:001.6044704156398613
2026-07-03T21:07:00+08:001.6055418648160815
2026-07-03T21:09:08+08:001.605937476819609
2026-07-03T21:12:33+08:001.6077795452110344
2026-07-03T21:14:36+08:001.6123125994181207
2026-07-03T21:15:23+08:001.6164335577881992
2026-07-04T09:35:15+08:001.6164335577881992
2026-07-04T09:36:44+08:001.6173484105463567
2026-07-04T09:37:34+08:001.6247208050704272
2026-07-04T09:40:01+08:001.62486091765501
2026-07-04T09:41:29+08:001.6281700472261829
2026-07-04T09:42:56+08:001.653307893283662
2026-07-04T09:43:39+08:001.6566046599797248
2026-07-04T10:26:56+08:001.6566788372303862
2026-07-04T10:27:56+08:001.6568395546068193
2026-07-04T10:29:49+08:001.6568931270656304
2026-07-04T10:30:46+08:001.656930215690961
2026-07-04T10:32:05+08:001.6573423115279688
2026-07-04T12:03:04+08:001.6574082468618903
2026-07-04T12:10:28+08:001.6577338025731263
2026-07-04T12:12:01+08:001.6578945199495594
2026-07-04T12:14:02+08:001.664900149178693
2026-07-04T12:14:23+08:001.6714936825708187
2026-07-04T15:36:34+08:001.6728989293750154
2026-07-04T15:38:22+08:001.6732533317948421
2026-07-04T15:39:26+08:001.6735459198391178
2026-07-04T15:40:26+08:001.6735706455893382
2026-07-04T15:42:20+08:001.6904665749066603
2026-07-04T15:42:46+08:001.6933512457657154
2026-07-04T18:35:21+08:001.6953045800331326
2026-07-04T18:37:35+08:001.697002414881605
2026-07-04T18:38:52+08:001.6902522850714161
2026-07-04T18:40:04+08:001.6903140994469674
2026-07-04T18:41:14+08:001.6919624827949988
2026-07-04T18:41:39+08:001.6923745786320066
2026-07-04T20:03:57+08:001.6924116672573373
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TradeGo forecast multiple
TimeMultiple
Broker margin funds trend
TimeBrokerMargin funds
Prediction Model 1-Lot Expected Lots— Lots for expected 1-lot allotment—
Multiple derivation
Recent first-day return
+4.6%
→
Participants
14,193
→
Avg lots
36.5
→
Oversubscription
1.0x
1.0x = 14,193 × 36.5 ÷ 383,473 A+H secondary · participants ×0.44 H-share discount 9.5% margin-weighted 100% → 4.1x
1x412.0x
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.60
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.70
This model does not support allocation strategy adjustment

Actual vs Predicted Comparison

Using the actual oversubscription ratio 3.78x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.597, Pool B α=0.697) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier

Lots Subscription Amount (HKD) Actual Expected Lots Predicted Expected Lots Error

LogoLuxshare Ict Allotment Prediction Matrix

Rows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates expected ≥1 lot. Non-preset multiples are interpolated from the nearest grid points.

Offering Mechanism

Mechanism B

Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).

Allocation Strategy Coefficient α

α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].

  • α → 0: Per-capita allocation — regardless of lots subscribed, every allottee receives the same number of shares. More favorable to retail (small) applications.
  • α → 1: Proportional allocation — allotted shares are proportional to lots subscribed. More favorable to large applications.
  • Historical actual α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0. α varies widely across IPOs, reflecting each issuer's allocation strategy.
Allotment Rate Definition

The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").

Expected Allotment Lots

Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier

Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.

About this page

This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Luxshare Ict (02475): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 22087 allotment-tier records across 592 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation). You can override the oversubscription multiple and the allocation-method α right on the page, replacing cibo's defaults to see expected lots under your own scenario. How allotment rates and clawback work is explained in How Hong Kong IPO Allotment Rates Work.
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.

Cibo — HK IPO Allotment Forecasts, Allottee Profiling & Stock Connect