VGT 02476Hong Kong Stock ExchangeIPOExpected Lots

100.30013.46%( -15.600 )
Nov 13 · End-of-day data, not live · Hong Kong Stock Exchange
Expected Allotment via Similar IPO Matching
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Margin dynamics Margin multiple302.99x Margin funds5300.3100M TradeGo forecast multiple406.01x
Rank Broker Margin funds
1 富途证券富途 3197.3100M
2 辉立证券辉立 1100.0100M
3 老虎国际老虎 477.9100M
4 华泰国际华泰 177.8100M
5 招银国际招银 113.0100M
6 华盛证券华盛 68.0100M
7 信诚证券信诚 50.0100M
8 熊猫证券熊猫 29.7100M
9 盈立证券盈立 23.2100M
Margin multiple
TimeMultiple
2026-04-13T06:00:00+08:000
2026-04-13T10:02:48+08:000.0024695451349389186
2026-04-13T10:03:59+08:000.0072714384528757055
2026-04-13T10:05:31+08:000.02842263521045441
2026-04-13T11:09:23+08:000.029623108539938603
2026-04-13T11:09:51+08:000.040347336949997425
2026-04-13T11:10:25+08:000.8446644677044092
2026-04-13T11:13:31+08:000.8763626801424562
2026-04-13T11:14:42+08:000.8820792198066666
2026-04-13T12:02:47+08:000.8900880918762255
2026-04-13T12:08:44+08:000.8901852730505171
2026-04-13T12:09:28+08:000.8942840319897559
2026-04-13T12:10:34+08:001.1378086216851215
2026-04-13T12:10:52+08:001.143525161349332
2026-04-13T13:47:04+08:001.1590227003790066
2026-04-13T13:47:48+08:001.314512579245531
2026-04-13T13:48:29+08:001.3189771967232795
2026-04-13T14:08:17+08:001.3267802733649268
2026-04-13T14:08:37+08:001.3269574860945172
2026-04-13T14:08:52+08:001.3477313912342581
2026-04-13T14:09:17+08:001.49636142250373
2026-04-13T14:11:13+08:001.524881238888476
2026-04-13T15:11:21+08:001.5290600293830139
2026-04-13T15:11:43+08:001.6862648701488014
2026-04-13T15:12:00+08:001.6862705866884657
2026-04-13T15:12:20+08:001.7060097981489843
2026-04-13T15:12:56+08:001.7117263378131948
2026-04-13T16:05:22+08:002.462307995724028
2026-04-13T16:05:34+08:002.520090778649868
2026-04-13T16:06:04+08:002.520422337950392
2026-04-13T16:06:39+08:002.52890568281208
2026-04-13T17:11:13+08:002.529385872143874
2026-04-13T17:11:35+08:002.5876945767188206
2026-04-13T17:12:00+08:002.589152294333194
2026-04-13T17:12:15+08:002.6006196728996005
2026-04-13T17:28:47+08:003.080809004693279
2026-04-13T18:13:04+08:003.0827469116394464
2026-04-13T18:13:33+08:003.091556099261995
2026-04-13T18:14:06+08:003.091704729293264
2026-04-13T18:14:27+08:003.2414780684955784
2026-04-13T18:17:29+08:003.2526539035391098
2026-04-13T20:32:40+08:003.25526064562599
2026-04-13T20:36:31+08:003.255895181528717
2026-04-13T20:37:11+08:003.280196191641276
2026-04-13T20:37:39+08:003.347651359678959
2026-04-13T20:37:53+08:003.4551223053661158
2026-04-13T22:09:22+08:003.5141741600974097
2026-04-13T22:09:50+08:003.5142942074303583
2026-04-13T22:10:10+08:003.583464337367305
2026-04-13T22:10:25+08:003.684075435457409
2026-04-14T08:35:13+08:003.697720815635879
2026-04-14T08:35:21+08:003.722810708222099
2026-04-14T08:35:51+08:003.723410944886841
2026-04-14T08:35:59+08:003.7235938741560957
2026-04-14T08:36:20+08:003.7235938741560957
2026-04-14T08:37:52+08:004.23408086617009
2026-04-14T09:02:02+08:004.299849655006831
2026-04-14T09:03:38+08:004.304502918293498
2026-04-14T09:04:07+08:004.304485768674506
2026-04-14T09:05:20+08:004.364812411750919
2026-04-14T09:07:14+08:004.483716436766496
2026-04-14T09:26:16+08:004.512299135087549
2026-04-14T10:07:11+08:004.518650210654487
2026-04-14T10:07:54+08:005.1972034687962685
2026-04-14T10:08:01+08:005.197563610795114
2026-04-14T10:08:30+08:005.220246840182701
2026-04-14T11:05:05+08:005.229490484819729
2026-04-14T11:05:46+08:005.325528351178464
2026-04-14T11:05:52+08:005.326008540510259
2026-04-14T11:06:38+08:005.33472626349818
2026-04-14T12:10:12+08:005.33707576130017
2026-04-14T12:10:21+08:005.352207441791335
2026-04-14T12:10:24+08:005.352361788362269
2026-04-14T12:10:27+08:005.641047041404897
2026-04-14T13:45:54+08:005.650719426516741
2026-04-14T13:46:18+08:005.652017081020516
2026-04-14T13:46:38+08:005.652457254574661
2026-04-14T13:46:46+08:005.873687339579606
2026-04-14T13:48:47+08:005.965151974206973
2026-04-14T14:05:49+08:006.0365687042319545
2026-04-14T14:06:13+08:006.108322710097124
2026-04-14T14:06:16+08:006.108374158954102
2026-04-14T14:06:19+08:006.36390348194431
2026-04-14T14:06:46+08:006.502386655309808
2026-04-14T15:05:06+08:006.523314907020483
2026-04-14T15:05:28+08:006.5445632849523525
2026-04-14T15:05:30+08:006.544877694633884
2026-04-14T15:05:33+08:006.7272353099221975
2026-04-14T15:36:24+08:007.013062293132721
2026-04-14T15:45:23+08:007.035928451789562
2026-04-14T16:26:30+08:007.051711817802448
2026-04-14T16:26:39+08:007.1534090584287515
2026-04-14T16:26:42+08:007.1542379566800625
2026-04-14T16:26:45+08:009.43113570493509
2026-04-14T16:57:15+08:009.659797291503507
2026-04-14T17:10:19+08:009.66805769131829
2026-04-14T17:10:34+08:0010.494857972572042
2026-04-14T17:10:37+08:0010.496189926313804
2026-04-14T17:10:40+08:0013.670584401849872
2026-04-14T17:27:43+08:0014.699561541407755
2026-04-14T18:09:19+08:0014.70089921168918
2026-04-14T18:09:32+08:0014.954765021637103
2026-04-14T18:09:56+08:0014.955531037952106
2026-04-14T18:10:02+08:0016.338361982724617
2026-04-14T18:11:04+08:0016.935042959795577
2026-04-14T20:28:20+08:0016.943972194751073
2026-04-14T20:28:35+08:0016.94585865284026
2026-04-14T20:28:40+08:0017.018195745751182
2026-04-14T20:28:44+08:0017.730476587911806
2026-04-14T20:28:56+08:0017.823221727423956
2026-04-14T20:29:02+08:0017.82329604243959
2026-04-14T20:29:08+08:0019.03120087348726
2026-04-14T22:31:47+08:0019.181002795387897
2026-04-14T22:31:51+08:0019.181865992877192
2026-04-14T22:31:57+08:0019.819831819403078
2026-04-14T22:32:02+08:0019.98601734398134
2026-04-14T22:32:06+08:0019.98719495115217
2026-04-14T22:32:12+08:0020.567995381035953
2026-04-15T08:44:12+08:0020.56832122379681
2026-04-15T08:44:15+08:0020.56985325642682
2026-04-15T08:44:26+08:0020.63225500340134
2026-04-15T08:44:29+08:0020.96706129845482
2026-04-15T08:44:38+08:0024.451863877757514
2026-04-15T08:44:45+08:0024.451863877757514
2026-04-15T09:07:17+08:0024.478308590244154
2026-04-15T09:07:41+08:0024.559460587317286
2026-04-15T09:07:44+08:0024.56148995889808
2026-04-15T09:07:47+08:0025.342369277029228
2026-04-15T09:08:11+08:0025.77149847654218
2026-04-15T09:34:15+08:0026.057325459752704
2026-04-15T10:08:55+08:0026.7541487786613
2026-04-15T10:09:21+08:0029.13222927897285
2026-04-15T10:09:57+08:0029.351664370523235
2026-04-15T10:10:05+08:0031.071199501517743
2026-04-15T10:10:18+08:0031.136688179910937
2026-04-15T11:14:44+08:0031.16347016823776
2026-04-15T11:15:41+08:0031.440642310396672
2026-04-15T11:16:16+08:0031.51030406274474
2026-04-15T11:16:33+08:0032.96116182952135
2026-04-15T12:08:50+08:0032.965111958429326
2026-04-15T12:09:19+08:0033.07925982244428
2026-04-15T12:09:28+08:0033.11283305989219
2026-04-15T12:10:14+08:0033.221447313512186
2026-04-15T12:10:25+08:0034.74890671178922
2026-04-15T13:41:41+08:0034.755400700847765
2026-04-15T13:41:55+08:0034.781376657081935
2026-04-15T13:42:08+08:0035.64743241620982
2026-04-15T13:42:55+08:0035.591113067438016
2026-04-15T14:06:29+08:0035.72128439213176
2026-04-15T14:06:45+08:0035.6919356774957
2026-04-15T14:07:08+08:0035.70359741841069
2026-04-15T14:07:45+08:0037.61635159005551
2026-04-15T14:08:45+08:0038.18633061035494
2026-04-15T15:03:35+08:0038.23665902555865
2026-04-15T15:04:05+08:0038.246182780639224
2026-04-15T15:05:27+08:0039.17397716814058
2026-04-15T15:11:15+08:0039.28259142176058
2026-04-15T15:16:32+08:0040.56685207310311
2026-04-15T16:28:13+08:0040.58295556533719
2026-04-15T16:29:05+08:0043.50952661335041
2026-04-15T16:29:15+08:0043.51977636896834
2026-04-15T16:29:58+08:0054.24857801075853
2026-04-15T16:30:12+08:0054.87739737382168
2026-04-15T16:34:19+08:0057.44984022271638
2026-04-15T17:05:01+08:0057.553835512287705
2026-04-15T17:05:22+08:0060.45025753011187
2026-04-15T17:05:36+08:0081.61803225271679
2026-04-15T17:05:50+08:0081.63843458277836
2026-04-15T18:05:25+08:0083.18303216696869
2026-04-15T18:05:42+08:0083.71900349280574
2026-04-15T18:06:04+08:0094.59243358810045
2026-04-15T18:08:52+08:0097.62119921569075
2026-04-15T20:15:47+08:0097.87093768400112
2026-04-15T20:15:57+08:0098.02411236430363
2026-04-15T20:16:16+08:0099.38336829950094
2026-04-15T20:16:25+08:00101.2171484756847
2026-04-15T20:16:44+08:00109.53128376331239
2026-04-15T20:16:58+08:00129.539172588049
2026-04-15T20:17:03+08:00131.02547290074372
2026-04-15T20:17:08+08:00138.00936940850963
2026-04-15T22:20:30+08:00139.3888218783406
2026-04-15T22:20:34+08:00139.5168609337396
2026-04-15T22:20:45+08:00147.29021156913296
2026-04-15T22:21:02+08:00148.76024260994336
2026-04-15T22:21:07+08:00148.84444152265752
2026-04-15T22:21:19+08:00158.0120561821518
2026-04-16T08:35:55+08:00159.04257107087938
2026-04-16T08:36:01+08:00163.64546592656532
2026-04-16T08:36:18+08:00163.74810639623624
2026-04-16T08:36:24+08:00163.92727989893157
2026-04-16T08:36:35+08:00204.1437080906186
2026-04-16T08:37:36+08:00204.1437080906186
2026-04-16T09:03:41+08:00205.84981506994185
2026-04-16T09:03:52+08:00205.84978648724353
2026-04-16T09:05:39+08:00211.15257444363777
2026-04-16T09:06:34+08:00224.34520468070266
2026-04-16T09:39:43+08:00225.31701642361847
2026-04-16T10:22:24+08:00227.26271501334813
2026-04-16T10:22:43+08:00253.7914606330496
2026-04-16T11:10:09+08:00254.01601202759946
2026-04-16T11:10:28+08:00293.0028125375148
2026-04-16T18:09:07+08:00302.99
TradeGo forecast multiple
TimeMultiple
Broker margin funds trend
TimeBrokerMargin funds
Prediction Model 1-Lot Expected Lots— Lots for expected 1-lot allotment—
Multiple derivation
Recent first-day return
+4.6%
→
Participants
20,604
→
Avg lots
22.0
→
Oversubscription
5x
5x = 20,604 × 22.0 ÷ 83,348 A+H secondary · participants ×0.44 H-share discount 41.6% margin-weighted 100% → 406.0x
1x571.0x
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.67
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.77
This model does not support allocation strategy adjustment

Actual vs Predicted Comparison

Using the actual oversubscription ratio 431.15x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.672, Pool B α=0.772) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier

Lots Subscription Amount (HKD) Actual Expected Lots Predicted Expected Lots Error

LogoVGT Allotment Prediction Matrix

Rows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates expected ≥1 lot. Non-preset multiples are interpolated from the nearest grid points.

Offering Mechanism

Mechanism B

Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).

Allocation Strategy Coefficient α

α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].

  • α → 0: Per-capita allocation — regardless of lots subscribed, every allottee receives the same number of shares. More favorable to retail (small) applications.
  • α → 1: Proportional allocation — allotted shares are proportional to lots subscribed. More favorable to large applications.
  • Historical actual α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0. α varies widely across IPOs, reflecting each issuer's allocation strategy.
Allotment Rate Definition

The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").

Expected Allotment Lots

Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier

Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.

About this page

This page shows expected-lot forecasts for VGT (02476): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 22087 allotment-tier records across 592 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation). You can override the oversubscription multiple and the allocation-method α right on the page, replacing cibo's defaults to see expected lots under your own scenario. How allotment rates and clawback work is explained in How Hong Kong IPO Allotment Rates Work.
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.

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