Margin dynamics Margin multiple909.41x Margin funds1977.2100M TradeGo forecast multiple1073.11x
Rank Broker Margin funds
1 富途证券富途 1362.6100M
2 辉立证券辉立 300.0100M
3 老虎国际老虎 187.7100M
4 华泰国际华泰 64.7100M
5 华盛证券华盛 25.1100M
6 盈立证券盈立 13.1100M
7 长桥证券长桥 12.0100M
8 TradeGo MarketsTradeGo 5.2100M
9 信诚证券信诚 3.0100M
Margin multiple
TimeMultiple
2025-12-30T06:00:00+08:000
2025-12-30T10:03:09+08:000.022998022170093373
2025-12-30T10:03:21+08:000.09590175244928936
2025-12-30T10:03:37+08:000.1353203624488294
2025-12-30T10:06:59+08:000.48029069500023
2025-12-30T11:16:05+08:000.4991490731797065
2025-12-30T11:16:28+08:000.6158410376707603
2025-12-30T11:16:47+08:001.0296674485994204
2025-12-30T11:17:09+08:002.119773699461846
2025-12-30T11:17:30+08:002.1680695460190424
2025-12-30T12:14:40+08:002.1956671726231543
2025-12-30T12:15:15+08:002.31530288395198
2025-12-30T12:15:39+08:003.304217837265995
2025-12-30T12:15:53+08:003.5293684743112093
2025-12-30T13:48:54+08:003.5390276436226484
2025-12-30T13:49:34+08:003.742790120049676
2025-12-30T13:49:56+08:006.129984821305368
2025-12-30T13:50:15+08:006.286049399751621
2025-12-30T13:50:42+08:006.355043466261901
2025-12-30T14:02:06+08:006.364104686996918
2025-12-30T14:04:07+08:006.5530104411020655
2025-12-30T14:05:03+08:007.118945770663723
2025-12-30T14:08:04+08:007.960673382089141
2025-12-30T14:08:27+08:008.058828940711098
2025-12-30T15:04:02+08:008.05919690906582
2025-12-30T15:04:16+08:008.064348466031921
2025-12-30T15:04:43+08:008.172209190009658
2025-12-30T15:05:04+08:008.237247596706684
2025-12-30T15:05:27+08:008.963985097281634
2025-12-30T16:01:57+08:008.970884503932663
2025-12-30T16:03:10+08:009.065452371096086
2025-12-30T16:03:36+08:009.205464330067613
2025-12-30T16:10:55+08:009.720620026677706
2025-12-30T17:12:22+08:009.721033991076768
2025-12-30T17:12:28+08:009.910491697713997
2025-12-30T17:12:40+08:0011.421001793845729
2025-12-30T17:12:51+08:0011.461524308909434
2025-12-30T17:13:05+08:0018.903684283151648
2025-12-30T17:54:52+08:0021.203486500160984
2025-12-30T18:00:54+08:0021.220275056345155
2025-12-30T18:09:01+08:0021.229980221700934
2025-12-30T18:09:06+08:0022.09111816383791
2025-12-30T18:09:23+08:0023.19249344556368
2025-12-30T18:09:51+08:0028.500436962421233
2025-12-30T18:11:47+08:0029.696012142955706
2025-12-30T20:44:22+08:0029.696426107354768
2025-12-30T20:44:37+08:0029.834414240375327
2025-12-30T20:44:55+08:0029.844119405731107
2025-12-30T20:45:07+08:0029.941033071155882
2025-12-30T20:45:34+08:0030.594728853318614
2025-12-30T20:45:52+08:0031.027367646382412
2025-12-30T20:46:14+08:0034.47707097189642
2025-12-30T20:46:44+08:0034.70751115404075
2025-12-30T20:47:01+08:0034.99760820569431
2025-12-30T20:47:24+08:0037.46759578676234
2025-12-30T20:47:45+08:0037.4677797709397
2025-12-30T20:48:00+08:0037.46782576698404
2025-12-30T21:39:53+08:0037.92866013522837
2025-12-30T21:40:07+08:0037.890897382825074
2025-12-30T21:40:20+08:0040.061910675681894
2025-12-30T22:22:26+08:0040.06131272710547
2025-12-30T22:22:35+08:0040.06172669150453
2025-12-30T22:22:45+08:0041.07833126351134
2025-12-30T22:23:00+08:0041.17064532450209
2025-12-30T22:23:20+08:0044.330573570672925
2025-12-31T08:58:09+08:0044.33181546387011
2025-12-31T08:58:52+08:0044.4724713674624
2025-12-31T08:58:55+08:0046.09852352697668
2025-12-31T08:59:24+08:0046.09852352697668
2025-12-31T08:59:48+08:0057.62053263419346
2025-12-31T09:00:05+08:0057.66008923232602
2025-12-31T10:02:05+08:0057.68437514373764
2025-12-31T10:02:55+08:0057.67466997838186
2025-12-31T10:03:22+08:0058.04705395336001
2025-12-31T10:03:25+08:0058.58129800837128
2025-12-31T10:04:49+08:0058.65576560415804
2025-12-31T10:05:49+08:0060.25182834276252
2025-12-31T10:05:52+08:0063.14037992732625
2025-12-31T10:09:22+08:0064.05179154592705
2025-12-31T11:02:55+08:0064.64744032013247
2025-12-31T11:03:20+08:0064.65705349339957
2025-12-31T11:04:51+08:0065.3932661791086
2025-12-31T11:05:56+08:0065.40053355411435
2025-12-31T11:07:38+08:0065.63055977185962
2025-12-31T11:08:32+08:0070.26236143691642
2025-12-31T11:48:22+08:0070.58433374729773
2025-12-31T11:48:41+08:0070.58557564049492
2025-12-31T12:02:49+08:0070.59091118163838
2025-12-31T12:04:53+08:0071.54105146957362
2025-12-31T12:05:52+08:0071.69651809944345
2025-12-31T12:07:41+08:0074.4930775953268
2025-12-31T13:40:17+08:0074.4933075755485
2025-12-31T13:40:22+08:0074.56763718320225
2025-12-31T13:40:26+08:0074.5675911871579
2025-12-31T13:40:29+08:0075.58410376707603
2025-12-31T13:40:33+08:0075.58414976312037
2025-12-31T13:40:36+08:0076.88192815417874
2025-12-31T14:26:30+08:0076.93049997700197
2025-12-31T14:26:36+08:0078.26447725495608
2025-12-31T14:26:48+08:0078.57154684697116
2025-12-31T14:26:51+08:0078.57025895772964
2025-12-31T14:26:55+08:0080.72747343728439
2025-12-31T14:28:54+08:0081.14143783634607
2025-12-31T14:33:04+08:0082.92401453475001
2025-12-31T14:34:41+08:0083.01674256013983
2025-12-31T15:29:16+08:0083.01711052849456
2025-12-31T15:29:19+08:0083.01757048893795
2025-12-31T15:29:27+08:0083.08651855940388
2025-12-31T15:29:35+08:0084.31456694724254
2025-12-31T15:29:39+08:0084.31576284439538
2025-12-31T15:29:47+08:0093.71735430752955
2025-12-31T16:22:36+08:0096.01715652453889
2025-12-31T16:22:49+08:0096.02479186789937
2025-12-31T16:22:56+08:0096.79688146819373
2025-12-31T16:22:59+08:00102.01283289637091
2025-12-31T16:23:02+08:00102.01766248102663
2025-12-31T16:32:22+08:00102.47219539119635
2025-12-31T16:33:40+08:00103.39211627800009
2025-12-31T17:01:00+08:00103.40513315854837
2025-12-31T17:04:13+08:00104.22998022170093
2025-12-31T17:05:07+08:00104.53171427257256
2025-12-31T17:05:59+08:00108.61616300998114
2025-12-31T18:07:44+08:00109.35209971942413
2025-12-31T18:08:44+08:00109.5103721079987
2025-12-31T18:09:24+08:00109.51313187065912
2025-12-31T18:10:29+08:00110.31824663078976
2025-12-31T18:17:36+08:00111.10615887033715
2025-12-31T18:19:20+08:00113.78772825537004
2025-12-31T19:57:38+08:00113.78993606549837
2025-12-31T19:58:17+08:00113.78786624350306
2025-12-31T19:59:03+08:00114.4105606917805
2025-12-31T20:00:00+08:00116.255002069822
2025-12-31T20:06:25+08:00116.88385998804102
2025-12-31T20:07:21+08:00116.88602180212501
2025-12-31T20:08:08+08:00117.62195851156801
2025-12-31T21:37:05+08:00117.7633043558254
2025-12-31T21:38:08+08:00117.76316636769238
2025-12-31T21:38:34+08:00119.96177728715331
2025-12-31T22:12:42+08:00119.96214525550802
2025-12-31T22:12:52+08:00120.38875856676326
2025-12-31T22:13:37+08:00120.38843659445288
2025-12-31T22:14:00+08:00123.34598224552688
2026-01-01T09:20:21+08:00122.97134446437606
2026-01-01T09:22:32+08:00122.97129846833172
2026-01-01T09:22:53+08:00123.04907777931098
2026-01-01T09:26:10+08:00125.19759900648545
2026-01-01T09:27:20+08:00125.19759900648545
2026-01-01T09:27:39+08:00135.10514695736165
2026-01-01T09:28:16+08:00135.86408168897475
2026-01-01T10:07:08+08:00135.87171703233523
2026-01-01T10:07:42+08:00136.25789982061542
2026-01-01T10:08:15+08:00137.52279103997057
2026-01-01T13:16:26+08:00137.53502598776504
2026-01-01T13:18:24+08:00137.53548594820845
2026-01-01T13:20:05+08:00138.67204820385447
2026-01-01T13:21:21+08:00140.34170461340324
2026-01-01T13:22:15+08:00141.20643024699876
2026-01-01T13:22:42+08:00142.245940849087
2026-01-01T16:21:03+08:00142.268524906858
2026-01-01T16:23:41+08:00142.78685433052758
2026-01-01T16:25:21+08:00145.21084586725541
2026-01-01T16:25:49+08:00146.36994618462813
2026-01-01T18:18:45+08:00146.37647762292443
2026-01-01T18:19:49+08:00146.37224598684514
2026-01-01T18:21:08+08:00146.61929074099626
2026-01-01T18:21:58+08:00146.51809944344785
2026-01-01T18:22:28+08:00147.30003219723105
2026-01-01T20:36:40+08:00147.30334391242354
2026-01-01T20:36:53+08:00147.30407984913296
2026-01-01T20:37:20+08:00147.30601168299526
2026-01-01T20:38:48+08:00147.67476197047054
2026-01-01T20:40:02+08:00148.8982567499195
2026-01-01T20:40:47+08:00149.64799227266454
2026-01-01T22:12:57+08:00149.64872820937399
2026-01-01T22:14:56+08:00150.2040844487374
2026-01-01T22:15:52+08:00150.9952164113886
2026-01-01T22:16:24+08:00152.82585897612805
2026-01-02T08:51:45+08:00152.82507704337428
2026-01-02T08:55:20+08:00152.8363460742376
2026-01-02T08:56:46+08:00152.98896094935836
2026-01-02T08:56:49+08:00153.40067154224738
2026-01-02T08:58:16+08:00159.90451221194976
2026-01-02T09:01:00+08:00159.90451221194976
2026-01-02T09:03:44+08:00159.8937951336185
2026-01-02T09:04:24+08:00159.89416310197322
2026-01-02T09:05:21+08:00160.45260107630745
2026-01-02T09:06:11+08:00161.574904558208
2026-01-02T09:19:55+08:00161.5788142219769
2026-01-02T10:06:41+08:00161.5784462536222
2026-01-02T10:06:44+08:00161.59794857642243
2026-01-02T10:07:03+08:00163.39961363322755
2026-01-02T10:07:09+08:00165.25868175336922
2026-01-02T10:07:12+08:00165.25964767030035
2026-01-02T10:07:15+08:00174.15528264569247
2026-01-02T11:18:56+08:00176.83229842233567
2026-01-02T11:20:04+08:00177.13030679361574
2026-01-02T11:21:30+08:00177.1389540499517
2026-01-02T11:21:37+08:00177.16163009981142
2026-01-02T11:21:40+08:00177.5847477116968
2026-01-02T11:21:43+08:00177.59601674256015
2026-01-02T11:22:31+08:00178.52895450991215
2026-01-02T11:23:35+08:00194.02502184812107
2026-01-02T11:51:52+08:00194.02534382043143
2026-01-02T12:12:31+08:00194.67830366588473
2026-01-02T12:13:48+08:00196.7377765512166
2026-01-02T12:15:08+08:00196.76785796421507
2026-01-02T12:15:57+08:00204.78956809714364
2026-01-02T13:49:41+08:00204.78027689618693
2026-01-02T13:49:49+08:00204.78064486454164
2026-01-02T13:49:52+08:00204.78101283289638
2026-01-02T13:51:15+08:00205.03500298974288
2026-01-02T13:52:12+08:00206.33222942826916
2026-01-02T13:53:28+08:00211.67696978059888
2026-01-02T13:54:35+08:00211.6963341152661
2026-01-02T13:56:18+08:00212.15629455866795
2026-01-02T14:04:42+08:00212.16250402465388
2026-01-02T14:06:04+08:00212.16255002069823
2026-01-02T14:07:14+08:00213.3688882756083
2026-01-02T14:10:30+08:00214.89623292396854
2026-01-02T14:11:35+08:00222.48558024009935
2026-01-02T14:14:13+08:00228.73027919598914
2026-01-02T15:27:23+08:00228.7437100409365
2026-01-02T15:27:25+08:00228.76187847845085
2026-01-02T15:27:28+08:00228.7770571730831
2026-01-02T15:27:31+08:00228.84246354813487
2026-01-02T15:27:34+08:00228.8910353709581
2026-01-02T15:29:44+08:00229.22883032059244
2026-01-02T15:30:59+08:00236.48240651303988
2026-01-02T15:31:23+08:00237.37744353985556
2026-01-02T15:32:14+08:00237.37891541327446
2026-01-02T16:11:10+08:00239.44666758658755
2026-01-02T16:11:51+08:00246.28167977553932
2026-01-02T16:12:22+08:00246.33002161814085
2026-01-02T16:12:34+08:00246.37459178510647
2026-01-02T17:29:48+08:00246.37601766248102
2026-01-02T17:30:06+08:00246.38379099397451
2026-01-02T17:30:20+08:00246.38687272894532
2026-01-02T17:30:35+08:00246.39837174003037
2026-01-02T17:31:53+08:00247.36433466721863
2026-01-02T17:32:56+08:00255.2940527114668
2026-01-02T17:33:57+08:00298.9902948346442
2026-01-02T17:59:39+08:00298.9950784232556
2026-01-02T18:07:31+08:00298.99287061312725
2026-01-02T18:09:15+08:00300.8242031185318
2026-01-02T18:10:15+08:00304.75226530518376
2026-01-02T18:21:04+08:00306.4464836024102
2026-01-02T20:52:55+08:00306.44652959845456
2026-01-02T20:53:18+08:00306.4548088864358
2026-01-02T21:05:57+08:00310.01232693988317
2026-01-02T21:07:21+08:00310.0126949082379
2026-01-02T21:09:25+08:00313.57738834460235
2026-01-02T21:10:05+08:00317.4778529046502
2026-01-02T21:10:40+08:00321.6404949174371
2026-01-02T22:22:29+08:00321.6370912101559
2026-01-02T22:22:43+08:00321.6369072259786
2026-01-02T22:23:44+08:00323.006623430385
2026-01-02T22:24:33+08:00327.8638057127087
2026-01-03T08:41:53+08:00327.90097051653555
2026-01-03T08:45:10+08:00330.46989558897934
2026-01-03T08:46:22+08:00330.46989558897934
2026-01-03T08:46:39+08:00351.85345660273214
2026-01-03T10:45:00+08:00351.85906812014167
2026-01-03T10:47:46+08:00352.56846511200035
2026-01-03T10:48:39+08:00356.40913481440595
2026-01-03T10:49:03+08:00362.816383790994
2026-01-03T13:34:55+08:00362.8167517593487
2026-01-03T13:37:28+08:00364.6960121429557
2026-01-03T13:38:56+08:00374.22179292580836
2026-01-03T13:39:30+08:00377.7082930867945
2026-01-03T16:49:00+08:00377.7073271698634
2026-01-03T16:51:36+08:00379.62007267375003
2026-01-03T16:53:09+08:00385.3971758428775
2026-01-03T16:53:34+08:00388.0971436456465
2026-01-03T19:03:01+08:00388.09677567729176
2026-01-03T19:05:19+08:00390.351133802493
2026-01-03T19:06:43+08:00395.52108918632996
2026-01-03T19:07:05+08:00399.20537233797893
2026-01-03T21:49:06+08:00399.2066142311761
2026-01-03T21:50:06+08:00400.0154546708983
2026-01-03T21:50:46+08:00402.50844027413643
2026-01-03T21:51:24+08:00405.1992088680374
2026-01-03T22:12:45+08:00405.22873832850377
2026-01-03T22:13:01+08:00405.22556460144426
2026-01-03T22:14:12+08:00409.0340370728117
2026-01-04T08:11:11+08:00409.74012234947793
2026-01-04T08:11:15+08:00411.3407386964721
2026-01-04T08:23:36+08:00426.11006853410606
2026-01-04T08:26:05+08:00426.11016052619476
2026-01-04T12:34:40+08:00432.089646290419
2026-01-04T12:42:33+08:00432.6110574490594
2026-01-04T12:42:37+08:00433.2598316544777
2026-01-04T12:42:41+08:00434.21742330159606
2026-01-04T12:42:45+08:00435.588427395244
2026-01-04T12:42:59+08:00439.8246630789752
2026-01-04T12:43:03+08:00446.9310519295341
2026-01-04T12:43:08+08:00454.3962099259464
2026-01-04T12:43:12+08:00461.4014074789568
2026-01-04T12:43:33+08:00461.4038452693068
2026-01-04T12:43:37+08:00461.40352329699647
2026-01-04T12:43:42+08:00461.40048755807
2026-01-04T12:43:46+08:00461.40090152246904
2026-01-04T12:43:55+08:00461.4012694908238
2026-01-04T12:43:59+08:00461.4014994710455
2026-01-04T14:57:58+08:00462.34193459362496
2026-01-04T14:58:03+08:00462.8491329745642
2026-01-04T14:58:31+08:00470.80184904098246
2026-01-04T14:58:35+08:00480.9393772135596
2026-01-04T15:07:16+08:00490.74573386688746
2026-01-04T15:08:22+08:00491.5674991950692
2026-01-04T19:05:57+08:00491.5665332781381
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TradeGo forecast multiple
TimeMultiple
Broker margin funds trend
TimeBrokerMargin funds
Prediction Model 1-Lot Expected Lots— Lots for expected 1-lot allotment—
Multiple derivation
Recent first-day return
-0.2%
→
Participants
22,692
→
Avg lots
94.3
→
Oversubscription
114x
114x = 22,692 × 94.3 ÷ 18,710 margin-weighted 100% → 1073.1x
1x4599.0x
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.52
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.62
This model does not support allocation strategy adjustment

Actual vs Predicted Comparison

Using the actual oversubscription ratio 1159.46x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.516, Pool B α=0.616) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier

Lots Subscription Amount (HKD) Actual Expected Lots Predicted Expected Lots Error

LogoZ.ai Allotment Prediction Matrix

Rows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates expected ≥1 lot. Non-preset multiples are interpolated from the nearest grid points.

Offering Mechanism

18C

HKEX Listing Rule Chapter 18C for specialist technology companies. Mechanisms A and B do not apply. Initial allocation 5%, with clawback: 10x to below 50x → 10%, 50x or above → 20%. At least 50% of total offering shares must be taken up by independent pricing investors in the placing tranche.

Allocation Strategy Coefficient α

α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].

  • α → 0: Per-capita allocation — regardless of lots subscribed, every allottee receives the same number of shares. More favorable to retail (small) applications.
  • α → 1: Proportional allocation — allotted shares are proportional to lots subscribed. More favorable to large applications.
  • Historical actual α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0. α varies widely across IPOs, reflecting each issuer's allocation strategy.
Allotment Rate Definition

The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").

Expected Allotment Lots

Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier

Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.

About this page

This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Z.ai (02513): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 22087 allotment-tier records across 592 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation). You can override the oversubscription multiple and the allocation-method α right on the page, replacing cibo's defaults to see expected lots under your own scenario. How allotment rates and clawback work is explained in How Hong Kong IPO Allotment Rates Work.
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.

Cibo — HK IPO Allotment Forecasts, Allottee Profiling & Stock Connect