Diagens-B 02526Expected Lots
Diagens-B (02526) Expected Lots
| Rank | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
402.8100M |
| 2 |  辉立 |
126.0100M |
| 3 |  老虎 |
57.0100M |
| 4 |  华泰 |
16.3100M |
| 5 |  招银 |
9.0100M |
| 6 |  TradeGo |
7.7100M |
| 7 |  华盛 |
6.7100M |
| 8 |  信诚 |
5.0100M |
| 9 |  熊猫 |
3.0100M |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|---|
| 2026-03-20T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2026-03-20T10:09:26+08:00 | 0.00111123458162018 |
| 2026-03-20T10:49:34+08:00 | 0.002000222246916324 |
| 2026-03-20T11:11:01+08:00 | 0.029336592954772752 |
| 2026-03-20T11:11:41+08:00 | 0.2849205467274142 |
| 2026-03-20T11:12:17+08:00 | 0.29492165796199576 |
| 2026-03-20T11:39:10+08:00 | 0.2958106456272919 |
| 2026-03-20T12:07:41+08:00 | 0.3797088565396155 |
| 2026-03-20T12:10:10+08:00 | 0.5908434270474497 |
| 2026-03-20T13:39:57+08:00 | 0.6022891432381375 |
| 2026-03-20T13:40:48+08:00 | 0.8165351705745083 |
| 2026-03-20T13:41:30+08:00 | 0.9498833203689299 |
| 2026-03-20T14:16:55+08:00 | 0.9575508389821091 |
| 2026-03-20T14:17:29+08:00 | 1.2575841760195576 |
| 2026-03-20T14:19:38+08:00 | 1.7176352928103122 |
| 2026-03-20T15:17:00+08:00 | 1.759084342704745 |
| 2026-03-20T15:20:25+08:00 | 1.803533725969552 |
| 2026-03-20T15:21:23+08:00 | 1.8036448494277142 |
| 2026-03-20T15:22:38+08:00 | 1.9147683075897322 |
| 2026-03-20T16:27:13+08:00 | 1.9168796532948105 |
| 2026-03-20T16:27:41+08:00 | 2.050227803089232 |
| 2026-03-20T16:28:48+08:00 | 2.0568952105789533 |
| 2026-03-20T17:08:21+08:00 | 2.178797644182687 |
| 2026-03-20T17:08:27+08:00 | 2.3232581397933103 |
| 2026-03-20T18:02:06+08:00 | 2.4343815979553285 |
| 2026-03-20T18:02:48+08:00 | 4.101233470385599 |
| 2026-03-20T18:04:52+08:00 | 4.168018668740971 |
| 2026-03-20T18:06:57+08:00 | 4.77919768863207 |
| 2026-03-20T18:21:57+08:00 | 4.849983331481276 |
| 2026-03-20T20:30:23+08:00 | 4.896321813534837 |
| 2026-03-20T20:31:21+08:00 | 4.898766529614401 |
| 2026-03-20T20:32:07+08:00 | 4.9765529503278145 |
| 2026-03-20T20:32:32+08:00 | 5.2988109789976665 |
| 2026-03-20T22:22:37+08:00 | 5.302589176575175 |
| 2026-03-20T22:23:40+08:00 | 5.274697188576509 |
| 2026-03-20T22:24:22+08:00 | 5.308034226025114 |
| 2026-03-20T22:24:36+08:00 | 5.441382375819535 |
| 2026-03-21T10:25:13+08:00 | 5.655628403155906 |
| 2026-03-21T10:25:53+08:00 | 5.655628403155906 |
| 2026-03-21T10:27:01+08:00 | 5.669407711967996 |
| 2026-03-21T10:30:22+08:00 | 5.669407711967996 |
| 2026-03-21T10:31:40+08:00 | 6.913990443382598 |
| 2026-03-21T10:32:01+08:00 | 6.936215135015002 |
| 2026-03-21T10:32:29+08:00 | 6.944104900544505 |
| 2026-03-21T12:23:42+08:00 | 7.278030892321369 |
| 2026-03-21T12:24:13+08:00 | 7.277141904656073 |
| 2026-03-21T12:24:57+08:00 | 7.31992443604845 |
| 2026-03-21T12:25:49+08:00 | 7.264362706967441 |
| 2026-03-21T15:26:39+08:00 | 7.263584842760307 |
| 2026-03-21T15:27:48+08:00 | 7.775863984887209 |
| 2026-03-21T15:33:06+08:00 | 8.27591954661629 |
| 2026-03-21T15:33:33+08:00 | 9.087120791199021 |
| 2026-03-21T18:12:44+08:00 | 9.117679742193577 |
| 2026-03-21T18:13:35+08:00 | 9.168240915657295 |
| 2026-03-21T18:14:20+08:00 | 9.44604956106234 |
| 2026-03-21T18:14:46+08:00 | 9.56828536504056 |
| 2026-03-21T20:13:00+08:00 | 9.578175352816979 |
| 2026-03-21T20:13:44+08:00 | 9.704744971663517 |
| 2026-03-21T20:14:27+08:00 | 9.71585731747972 |
| 2026-03-21T22:10:45+08:00 | 9.782975886209579 |
| 2026-03-21T22:11:33+08:00 | 10.003444827203023 |
| 2026-03-21T22:12:15+08:00 | 10.514612734748304 |
| 2026-03-21T22:12:34+08:00 | 10.4812756972997 |
| 2026-03-22T09:21:50+08:00 | 10.4812756972997 |
| 2026-03-22T10:08:35+08:00 | 10.55283920435604 |
| 2026-03-22T10:09:30+08:00 | 10.6541837981998 |
| 2026-03-22T10:11:08+08:00 | 11.487609734414935 |
| 2026-03-22T10:11:47+08:00 | 11.64318257584176 |
| 2026-03-22T12:33:32+08:00 | 11.543171463495945 |
| 2026-03-22T12:33:36+08:00 | 12.187687520835649 |
| 2026-03-22T12:34:49+08:00 | 12.18779864429381 |
| 2026-03-22T12:34:53+08:00 | 12.201689076564064 |
| 2026-03-22T12:41:59+08:00 | 12.258473163684855 |
| 2026-03-22T15:27:20+08:00 | 12.414046005111679 |
| 2026-03-22T15:27:30+08:00 | 12.436270696744083 |
| 2026-03-22T15:27:34+08:00 | 12.42515835092788 |
| 2026-03-22T15:28:09+08:00 | 12.425713968218691 |
| 2026-03-22T15:28:13+08:00 | 12.427158573174797 |
| 2026-03-22T15:28:17+08:00 | 12.43060340037782 |
| 2026-03-22T15:33:41+08:00 | 12.43115901766863 |
| 2026-03-22T15:33:46+08:00 | 12.519724413823758 |
| 2026-03-22T15:33:51+08:00 | 12.52039115457273 |
| 2026-03-22T19:10:53+08:00 | 13.031559062118014 |
| 2026-03-22T19:10:58+08:00 | 13.042671407934215 |
| 2026-03-22T19:11:02+08:00 | 13.731636848538727 |
| 2026-03-22T19:11:07+08:00 | 14.442826980775642 |
| 2026-03-22T19:14:50+08:00 | 14.443715968440937 |
| 2026-03-22T19:14:53+08:00 | 14.405933992665851 |
| 2026-03-22T19:14:58+08:00 | 14.406156239582176 |
| 2026-03-22T19:15:02+08:00 | 15.198355372819202 |
| 2026-03-22T19:22:05+08:00 | 15.229358817646405 |
| 2026-03-22T19:22:10+08:00 | 15.195355039448827 |
| 2026-03-22T19:22:14+08:00 | 15.199466607400822 |
| 2026-03-22T19:22:18+08:00 | 15.285476164018224 |
| 2026-03-22T22:11:22+08:00 | 15.641071230136681 |
| 2026-03-22T22:11:33+08:00 | 16.10778975441716 |
| 2026-03-22T22:11:50+08:00 | 17.463495943993777 |
| 2026-03-22T22:13:24+08:00 | 17.48838759862207 |
| 2026-03-22T22:13:45+08:00 | 17.39037670852317 |
| 2026-03-22T22:14:06+08:00 | 17.43382598066452 |
| 2026-03-22T22:16:37+08:00 | 17.43060340037782 |
| 2026-03-22T22:16:54+08:00 | 17.365929547727525 |
| 2026-03-22T22:17:11+08:00 | 17.365818424269364 |
| 2026-03-23T08:39:50+08:00 | 17.415268363151462 |
| 2026-03-23T08:40:05+08:00 | 17.500833425936214 |
| 2026-03-23T08:40:46+08:00 | 17.503055895099454 |
| 2026-03-23T08:40:59+08:00 | 17.524947216357372 |
| 2026-03-23T08:41:28+08:00 | 18.43615957328592 |
| 2026-03-23T08:42:08+08:00 | 18.43615957328592 |
| 2026-03-23T08:42:34+08:00 | 18.43715968440938 |
| 2026-03-23T08:42:38+08:00 | 18.4493832648072 |
| 2026-03-23T09:14:01+08:00 | 18.45205022780309 |
| 2026-03-23T09:15:17+08:00 | 18.43127014112679 |
| 2026-03-23T09:15:46+08:00 | 18.90910101122347 |
| 2026-03-23T09:16:52+08:00 | 18.923658184242694 |
| 2026-03-23T09:16:55+08:00 | 19.061451272363595 |
| 2026-03-23T09:17:43+08:00 | 19.06011779086565 |
| 2026-03-23T09:19:23+08:00 | 19.54906100677853 |
| 2026-03-23T09:21:26+08:00 | 20.511167907545282 |
| 2026-03-23T10:03:56+08:00 | 20.603955995110567 |
| 2026-03-23T10:03:58+08:00 | 20.71752416935215 |
| 2026-03-23T10:04:07+08:00 | 21.181575730636737 |
| 2026-03-23T10:06:34+08:00 | 21.336259584398267 |
| 2026-03-23T10:07:12+08:00 | 21.339482164684966 |
| 2026-03-23T10:07:41+08:00 | 22.528503167018556 |
| 2026-03-23T10:43:54+08:00 | 22.727080786754083 |
| 2026-03-23T10:44:14+08:00 | 23.39248805422825 |
| 2026-03-23T11:07:11+08:00 | 23.84853872652517 |
| 2026-03-23T11:07:24+08:00 | 23.853761529058783 |
| 2026-03-23T11:09:46+08:00 | 24.2820313368152 |
| 2026-03-23T11:10:50+08:00 | 24.292588065340592 |
| 2026-03-23T11:11:27+08:00 | 24.83709301033448 |
| 2026-03-23T11:56:39+08:00 | 24.940326702966995 |
| 2026-03-23T11:56:51+08:00 | 24.898322035781753 |
| 2026-03-23T11:57:01+08:00 | 24.83975997333037 |
| 2026-03-23T12:13:29+08:00 | 24.948327591954662 |
| 2026-03-23T12:15:28+08:00 | 26.492943660406713 |
| 2026-03-23T12:16:06+08:00 | 26.497388598733192 |
| 2026-03-23T13:40:35+08:00 | 26.951883542615846 |
| 2026-03-23T13:40:41+08:00 | 26.95255028336482 |
| 2026-03-23T13:41:54+08:00 | 28.012001333481496 |
| 2026-03-23T13:42:52+08:00 | 28.01422380264474 |
| 2026-03-23T13:43:35+08:00 | 29.481053450383374 |
| 2026-03-23T13:44:23+08:00 | 29.81442382486943 |
| 2026-03-23T14:05:58+08:00 | 29.819202133570396 |
| 2026-03-23T14:07:09+08:00 | 29.987998666518504 |
| 2026-03-23T14:07:49+08:00 | 29.996888543171462 |
| 2026-03-23T14:08:26+08:00 | 31.341482386931883 |
| 2026-03-23T14:10:54+08:00 | 31.53905989554395 |
| 2026-03-23T15:14:52+08:00 | 31.586065118346482 |
| 2026-03-23T15:15:25+08:00 | 31.589287698633182 |
| 2026-03-23T15:16:45+08:00 | 32.83387043004778 |
| 2026-03-23T15:17:48+08:00 | 32.83320368929881 |
| 2026-03-23T15:18:03+08:00 | 32.836092899211025 |
| 2026-03-23T15:37:48+08:00 | 32.86242915879542 |
| 2026-03-23T15:41:18+08:00 | 33.86254028225358 |
| 2026-03-23T16:14:18+08:00 | 33.878208689854425 |
| 2026-03-23T16:16:33+08:00 | 33.97310812312479 |
| 2026-03-23T16:17:21+08:00 | 35.08434270474497 |
| 2026-03-23T16:18:12+08:00 | 35.087676408489834 |
| 2026-03-23T16:18:21+08:00 | 35.07923102566952 |
| 2026-03-23T16:18:30+08:00 | 35.07823091454606 |
| 2026-03-23T16:57:36+08:00 | 35.07978664296033 |
| 2026-03-23T17:05:50+08:00 | 35.23358150905656 |
| 2026-03-23T17:06:26+08:00 | 35.251916879653294 |
| 2026-03-23T17:07:30+08:00 | 35.433714857206354 |
| 2026-03-23T17:08:13+08:00 | 39.71196799644405 |
| 2026-03-23T17:45:43+08:00 | 39.73474830536726 |
| 2026-03-23T17:45:51+08:00 | 39.73563729303256 |
| 2026-03-23T17:46:45+08:00 | 39.84676075119458 |
| 2026-03-23T18:17:56+08:00 | 39.84964996110679 |
| 2026-03-23T18:18:45+08:00 | 51.51761306811868 |
| 2026-03-23T18:19:08+08:00 | 51.55161684631626 |
| 2026-03-23T18:21:11+08:00 | 51.65918435381709 |
| 2026-03-23T18:21:58+08:00 | 52.77041893543727 |
| 2026-03-23T18:25:05+08:00 | 53.05789532170241 |
| 2026-03-23T20:19:37+08:00 | 53.068563173685966 |
| 2026-03-23T20:20:19+08:00 | 53.16324036004001 |
| 2026-03-23T20:22:14+08:00 | 54.08867651961329 |
| 2026-03-23T20:23:06+08:00 | 55.277697521946884 |
| 2026-03-23T20:23:41+08:00 | 56.11112345816202 |
| 2026-03-23T21:58:29+08:00 | 56.11212356928548 |
| 2026-03-23T22:09:36+08:00 | 56.157573063673745 |
| 2026-03-23T22:10:44+08:00 | 56.296144016001776 |
| 2026-03-23T22:11:46+08:00 | 56.70641182353595 |
| 2026-03-23T22:12:31+08:00 | 58.8622069118791 |
| 2026-03-23T22:12:52+08:00 | 60.340148905433935 |
| 2026-03-24T08:37:08+08:00 | 60.67107456384043 |
| 2026-03-24T08:37:11+08:00 | 62.140904544949436 |
| 2026-03-24T08:39:21+08:00 | 62.25358373152572 |
| 2026-03-24T08:39:37+08:00 | 62.74552728080898 |
| 2026-03-24T08:40:35+08:00 | 78.04722746971886 |
| 2026-03-24T08:42:11+08:00 | 78.07556395155017 |
| 2026-03-24T08:44:03+08:00 | 78.07556395155017 |
| 2026-03-24T09:20:05+08:00 | 78.97255250583399 |
| 2026-03-24T09:20:55+08:00 | 79.06789643293699 |
| 2026-03-24T09:21:46+08:00 | 82.1904656072897 |
| 2026-03-24T09:22:43+08:00 | 82.19102122458051 |
| 2026-03-24T09:23:00+08:00 | 82.19702189132126 |
| 2026-03-24T09:24:29+08:00 | 82.53039226580731 |
| 2026-03-24T09:30:30+08:00 | 83.67440826758529 |
| 2026-03-24T09:33:39+08:00 | 83.6755195021669 |
| 2026-03-24T10:18:45+08:00 | 84.83364818313146 |
| 2026-03-24T10:19:19+08:00 | 84.8414268252028 |
| 2026-03-24T10:20:03+08:00 | 92.57561951327925 |
| 2026-03-24T10:21:08+08:00 | 92.57739748860985 |
| 2026-03-24T10:21:17+08:00 | 92.68063118124236 |
| 2026-03-24T10:21:31+08:00 | 92.67607511945772 |
| 2026-03-24T10:59:59+08:00 | 92.7443049227692 |
| 2026-03-24T11:02:21+08:00 | 93.14168240915657 |
| 2026-03-24T11:03:39+08:00 | 93.20435603955995 |
| 2026-03-24T11:04:31+08:00 | 93.26647405267252 |
| 2026-03-24T11:06:51+08:00 | 99.28936548505389 |
| 2026-03-24T11:50:06+08:00 | 99.29114346038449 |
| 2026-03-24T11:50:09+08:00 | 99.31314590510057 |
| 2026-03-24T11:50:12+08:00 | 99.41704633848205 |
| 2026-03-24T12:07:16+08:00 | 99.4221580175575 |
| 2026-03-24T12:08:00+08:00 | 100.56628514279365 |
| 2026-03-24T12:08:45+08:00 | 100.65640626736304 |
| 2026-03-24T12:09:43+08:00 | 109.33514834981665 |
| 2026-03-24T12:13:47+08:00 | 110.44638293143683 |
| 2026-03-24T13:43:57+08:00 | 111.18835426158462 |
| 2026-03-24T13:44:43+08:00 | 111.20602289143238 |
| 2026-03-24T13:45:16+08:00 | 116.9288809867763 |
| 2026-03-24T13:46:43+08:00 | 116.93821535726192 |
| 2026-03-24T13:46:46+08:00 | 116.90365596177352 |
| 2026-03-24T13:46:49+08:00 | 117.00333370374486 |
| 2026-03-24T13:46:52+08:00 | 117.02433603733748 |
| 2026-03-24T13:46:55+08:00 | 117.08034226025114 |
| 2026-03-24T13:46:58+08:00 | 117.24524947216358 |
| 2026-03-24T13:48:31+08:00 | 117.36937437493054 |
| 2026-03-24T14:09:04+08:00 | 118.03989332148016 |
| 2026-03-24T14:09:45+08:00 | 118.30325591732415 |
| 2026-03-24T14:10:15+08:00 | 126.44860540060007 |
| 2026-03-24T14:10:58+08:00 | 126.47383042560284 |
| 2026-03-24T14:13:02+08:00 | 128.36859651072342 |
| 2026-03-24T15:12:49+08:00 | 128.45560617846428 |
| 2026-03-24T15:14:57+08:00 | 137.2788087565285 |
| 2026-03-24T15:16:37+08:00 | 138.37115235026113 |
| 2026-03-24T15:18:27+08:00 | 138.47383042560284 |
| 2026-03-24T15:18:30+08:00 | 138.59095455050561 |
| 2026-03-24T15:18:33+08:00 | 138.79031003444828 |
| 2026-03-24T15:18:35+08:00 | 138.8543171463496 |
| 2026-03-24T15:18:38+08:00 | 138.85476164018223 |
| 2026-03-24T15:47:01+08:00 | 138.86631847983108 |
| 2026-03-24T16:12:29+08:00 | 140.73885987331926 |
| 2026-03-24T16:13:18+08:00 | 140.7656406267363 |
| 2026-03-24T16:14:08+08:00 | 151.3445938437604 |
| 2026-03-24T16:14:46+08:00 | 151.3513723747083 |
| 2026-03-24T16:17:07+08:00 | 155.79631070118901 |
| 2026-03-24T17:07:45+08:00 | 157.74119346594065 |
| 2026-03-24T17:08:31+08:00 | 157.78908767640849 |
| 2026-03-24T17:09:13+08:00 | 173.8019779975553 |
| 2026-03-24T17:09:45+08:00 | 175.1354594954995 |
| 2026-03-24T17:10:19+08:00 | 175.13912656961884 |
| 2026-03-24T17:10:23+08:00 | 175.1732414712746 |
| 2026-03-24T17:33:01+08:00 | 201.8428714301589 |
| 2026-03-24T17:34:38+08:00 | 202.29736637404156 |
| 2026-03-24T18:05:30+08:00 | 202.3542615846205 |
| 2026-03-24T18:06:42+08:00 | 204.62329147683076 |
| 2026-03-24T18:07:28+08:00 | 204.6969663295922 |
| 2026-03-24T18:08:14+08:00 | 217.90954550505612 |
| 2026-03-24T18:11:06+08:00 | 220.70474497166353 |
| 2026-03-24T20:21:37+08:00 | 223.15190576730748 |
| 2026-03-24T20:23:54+08:00 | 223.33748194243805 |
| 2026-03-24T20:25:03+08:00 | 226.5705078342038 |
| 2026-03-24T20:25:44+08:00 | 234.68252028003113 |
| 2026-03-24T20:26:18+08:00 | 243.1501277919769 |
| 2026-03-24T22:00:34+08:00 | 253.98466496277365 |
| 2026-03-24T22:13:44+08:00 | 254.21202355817314 |
| 2026-03-24T22:14:28+08:00 | 254.34737193021448 |
| 2026-03-24T22:15:22+08:00 | 259.63729303255917 |
| 2026-03-24T22:16:03+08:00 | 275.13901544616067 |
| 2026-03-25T08:35:53+08:00 | 275.2096899655517 |
| 2026-03-25T08:37:17+08:00 | 280.73452605845097 |
| 2026-03-25T08:37:21+08:00 | 296.43193688187574 |
| 2026-03-25T08:39:19+08:00 | 296.64151572396935 |
| 2026-03-25T08:39:22+08:00 | 297.486942993666 |
| 2026-03-25T08:40:58+08:00 | 400.9206578508723 |
| 2026-03-25T08:41:41+08:00 | 400.9206578508723 |
| 2026-03-25T08:48:31+08:00 | 400.9661073452606 |
| 2026-03-25T09:15:41+08:00 | 406.60017779753304 |
| 2026-03-25T09:17:53+08:00 | 448.1047894210468 |
| 2026-03-25T09:18:20+08:00 | 451.66074008223137 |
| 2026-03-25T09:18:58+08:00 | 451.6669629958884 |
| 2026-03-25T09:19:07+08:00 | 451.7239693299255 |
| 2026-03-25T09:22:12+08:00 | 462.0338926547394 |
| 2026-03-25T09:35:51+08:00 | 462.02244693854874 |
| 2026-03-25T10:01:04+08:00 | 462.0565618402045 |
| 2026-03-25T10:02:09+08:00 | 462.0646738526503 |
| 2026-03-25T10:04:35+08:00 | 469.99777753083674 |
| 2026-03-25T10:05:45+08:00 | 593.855983998222 |
| 2026-03-25T10:34:57+08:00 | 593.899211023447 |
| 2026-03-25T10:35:05+08:00 | 593.8983220357818 |
| 2026-03-25T11:11:45+08:00 | 693.909434381598 |
| 2026-03-25T17:25:42+08:00 | 708.72 |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|
| Time | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|
Using the actual oversubscription ratio 1073.37x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.551, Pool B α=0.651) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier
| Lots | Subscription Amount (HKD) | Actual Expected Lots | Predicted Expected Lots | Error |
|---|
Diagens-B Allotment Prediction MatrixRows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates guaranteed allotment (≥1 lot)
Mechanism B
Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).
α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].
The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").
Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier
Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.
This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Diagens-B (02526): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 10,897 allotment-tier records across 356 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation).
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.
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