CF Pharmtech 02652Expected Lots
CF Pharmtech (02652) Expected Lots
| Rank | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
2182.4100M |
| 2 |  辉立 |
568.0100M |
| 3 |  老虎 |
342.8100M |
| 4 |  华泰 |
122.8100M |
| 5 |  华盛 |
55.4100M |
| 6 |  耀才 |
35.0100M |
| 7 |  信诚 |
30.0100M |
| 9 |  长桥 |
19.6100M |
| 10 |  盈立 |
15.5100M |
| 11 | 卓锐证券 | 13.9100M |
| 12 |  TradeGo |
6.2100M |
| 13 |  艾德 |
1.9100M |
| 14 |  盈宝 |
1.6100M |
| 15 |  Funderstone |
1.0100M |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-26T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2025-09-26T10:12:25+08:00 | 0.19927595853217048 |
| 2025-09-26T10:12:28+08:00 | 0.2994898798749383 |
| 2025-09-26T10:12:33+08:00 | 0.3159453677801547 |
| 2025-09-26T11:01:04+08:00 | 0.33832483133124897 |
| 2025-09-26T11:03:41+08:00 | 0.6022708573309199 |
| 2025-09-26T11:03:45+08:00 | 1.8219516208655586 |
| 2025-09-26T11:05:40+08:00 | 3.697877242060227 |
| 2025-09-26T11:49:32+08:00 | 3.862432121112391 |
| 2025-09-26T12:05:43+08:00 | 3.9233174263616917 |
| 2025-09-26T12:05:49+08:00 | 4.595524107289781 |
| 2025-09-26T12:05:52+08:00 | 5.738028632548955 |
| 2025-09-26T12:05:55+08:00 | 7.597498765838407 |
| 2025-09-26T13:45:01+08:00 | 7.636662827052822 |
| 2025-09-26T13:45:15+08:00 | 8.096593714003621 |
| 2025-09-26T13:45:23+08:00 | 8.709231528714826 |
| 2025-09-26T13:45:27+08:00 | 9.894026657890407 |
| 2025-09-26T14:01:55+08:00 | 9.976304097416488 |
| 2025-09-26T14:01:59+08:00 | 10.026493335527398 |
| 2025-09-26T14:02:34+08:00 | 10.233338818495968 |
| 2025-09-26T14:03:47+08:00 | 10.308211288464703 |
| 2025-09-26T14:03:49+08:00 | 10.963962481487576 |
| 2025-09-26T14:06:15+08:00 | 11.704459437222313 |
| 2025-09-26T15:01:01+08:00 | 11.749547474082606 |
| 2025-09-26T15:13:43+08:00 | 11.986012835280565 |
| 2025-09-26T15:13:47+08:00 | 12.50271515550436 |
| 2025-09-26T15:13:50+08:00 | 12.947013328945204 |
| 2025-09-26T16:01:25+08:00 | 12.953266414349185 |
| 2025-09-26T16:04:42+08:00 | 13.913115023860458 |
| 2025-09-26T16:04:45+08:00 | 14.026164225769294 |
| 2025-09-26T16:05:12+08:00 | 14.569195326641434 |
| 2025-09-26T17:06:48+08:00 | 14.58104327793319 |
| 2025-09-26T17:06:54+08:00 | 15.818825078163568 |
| 2025-09-26T17:06:57+08:00 | 16.259503044265262 |
| 2025-09-26T17:07:00+08:00 | 17.197465854862596 |
| 2025-09-26T17:54:17+08:00 | 20.982228073062366 |
| 2025-09-26T17:57:43+08:00 | 22.46322198453184 |
| 2025-09-26T18:11:27+08:00 | 22.468981405298667 |
| 2025-09-26T18:11:33+08:00 | 39.270528221161754 |
| 2025-09-26T18:11:38+08:00 | 39.389665953595525 |
| 2025-09-26T18:11:44+08:00 | 73.97910153036038 |
| 2025-09-26T18:12:19+08:00 | 75.62465032088201 |
| 2025-09-26T18:12:53+08:00 | 77.27019911140366 |
| 2025-09-26T18:14:00+08:00 | 77.50929735066644 |
| 2025-09-26T20:24:41+08:00 | 77.51604410070759 |
| 2025-09-26T20:24:46+08:00 | 86.57298008885964 |
| 2025-09-26T20:24:51+08:00 | 88.51489221655422 |
| 2025-09-26T20:24:56+08:00 | 125.12835280566068 |
| 2025-09-26T20:25:08+08:00 | 130.0697712687181 |
| 2025-09-26T20:25:13+08:00 | 130.06993582359718 |
| 2025-09-26T20:25:19+08:00 | 158.14299818989633 |
| 2025-09-26T22:20:18+08:00 | 162.54780319236465 |
| 2025-09-26T22:20:24+08:00 | 179.94125390817837 |
| 2025-09-26T22:20:42+08:00 | 184.01744281717953 |
| 2025-09-26T22:20:48+08:00 | 200.57166364982723 |
| 2025-09-27T10:04:03+08:00 | 200.57166364982723 |
| 2025-09-27T10:04:25+08:00 | 200.85338160276453 |
| 2025-09-27T10:04:33+08:00 | 200.87428007240413 |
| 2025-09-27T10:05:05+08:00 | 264.5076518018759 |
| 2025-09-27T10:05:38+08:00 | 272.6366628270528 |
| 2025-09-27T10:05:43+08:00 | 278.19861773901596 |
| 2025-09-27T10:05:59+08:00 | 290.302780977456 |
| 2025-09-27T10:07:26+08:00 | 290.3017936481817 |
| 2025-09-27T10:07:31+08:00 | 290.30261642257693 |
| 2025-09-27T10:07:47+08:00 | 290.302780977456 |
| 2025-09-27T11:16:18+08:00 | 290.3044265262465 |
| 2025-09-27T11:16:22+08:00 | 291.16455487905216 |
| 2025-09-27T11:16:27+08:00 | 297.86193845647523 |
| 2025-09-27T15:20:06+08:00 | 297.87641928583184 |
| 2025-09-27T15:20:11+08:00 | 298.4744117163074 |
| 2025-09-27T15:20:15+08:00 | 303.7072568701662 |
| 2025-09-27T15:20:21+08:00 | 303.7135099555702 |
| 2025-09-27T15:20:30+08:00 | 304.2163896659536 |
| 2025-09-27T15:20:34+08:00 | 311.20997202567054 |
| 2025-09-27T15:20:39+08:00 | 311.2147441171631 |
| 2025-09-27T15:20:49+08:00 | 311.410235313477 |
| 2025-09-27T15:20:54+08:00 | 316.0835938785585 |
| 2025-09-27T15:20:59+08:00 | 316.08853052493004 |
| 2025-09-27T15:21:04+08:00 | 316.49679117985846 |
| 2025-09-27T15:21:09+08:00 | 322.3549448741155 |
| 2025-09-27T22:05:03+08:00 | 322.3587296363337 |
| 2025-09-27T22:05:08+08:00 | 322.36547638637484 |
| 2025-09-27T22:05:12+08:00 | 322.38999506335364 |
| 2025-09-27T22:05:17+08:00 | 322.3939443804509 |
| 2025-09-27T22:05:34+08:00 | 324.64653611979594 |
| 2025-09-27T22:05:39+08:00 | 325.88234326147773 |
| 2025-09-27T22:05:44+08:00 | 326.84844495639294 |
| 2025-09-27T22:05:48+08:00 | 327.7470791508968 |
| 2025-09-27T22:05:52+08:00 | 328.56639789369757 |
| 2025-09-27T22:05:57+08:00 | 328.8662168833306 |
| 2025-09-27T22:06:02+08:00 | 330.05545499424056 |
| 2025-09-27T22:06:59+08:00 | 335.74905380944546 |
| 2025-09-27T22:07:04+08:00 | 341.16290933026164 |
| 2025-09-27T22:07:08+08:00 | 346.46157643574134 |
| 2025-09-27T22:07:13+08:00 | 350.0488727990785 |
| 2025-09-27T22:07:18+08:00 | 352.8298502550601 |
| 2025-09-27T22:07:22+08:00 | 355.39690636827385 |
| 2025-09-27T22:07:27+08:00 | 360.0044429817344 |
| 2025-09-28T10:15:16+08:00 | 362.57149909494814 |
| 2025-09-28T10:15:34+08:00 | 362.5698535461576 |
| 2025-09-28T10:15:40+08:00 | 362.57149909494814 |
| 2025-09-28T10:15:54+08:00 | 364.1689978607866 |
| 2025-09-28T10:16:00+08:00 | 386.4003620207339 |
| 2025-09-28T10:16:10+08:00 | 386.44742471614285 |
| 2025-09-28T10:16:21+08:00 | 387.0024683231858 |
| 2025-09-28T10:16:27+08:00 | 391.18216225111075 |
| 2025-09-28T10:16:33+08:00 | 391.18973177554716 |
| 2025-09-28T10:16:44+08:00 | 391.98732927431297 |
| 2025-09-28T10:16:49+08:00 | 399.37584334375515 |
| 2025-09-28T13:48:30+08:00 | 399.3807799901267 |
| 2025-09-28T13:48:41+08:00 | 401.2126049037354 |
| 2025-09-28T13:48:48+08:00 | 409.6542701991114 |
| 2025-09-28T13:48:53+08:00 | 409.65937140036203 |
| 2025-09-28T13:48:58+08:00 | 410.90653282869835 |
| 2025-09-28T13:49:03+08:00 | 410.90636827381934 |
| 2025-09-28T13:49:08+08:00 | 416.58351160111897 |
| 2025-09-28T13:49:19+08:00 | 416.5892710218858 |
| 2025-09-28T13:49:24+08:00 | 418.9542537436235 |
| 2025-09-28T13:49:29+08:00 | 425.4048050024683 |
| 2025-09-28T13:49:34+08:00 | 426.3921342767813 |
| 2025-09-28T13:49:39+08:00 | 450.82853381602763 |
| 2025-09-28T16:22:29+08:00 | 450.8352805660688 |
| 2025-09-28T16:22:34+08:00 | 451.70149744939937 |
| 2025-09-28T16:22:40+08:00 | 456.25966759914434 |
| 2025-09-28T16:22:45+08:00 | 456.2659206845483 |
| 2025-09-28T16:22:50+08:00 | 457.46519664308045 |
| 2025-09-28T16:22:56+08:00 | 465.66002961987823 |
| 2025-09-28T16:23:01+08:00 | 465.6652953760079 |
| 2025-09-28T16:23:11+08:00 | 473.46519664308045 |
| 2025-09-28T16:23:16+08:00 | 478.7839394438045 |
| 2025-09-28T18:19:28+08:00 | 478.7864077669903 |
| 2025-09-28T18:19:34+08:00 | 480.26197136745105 |
| 2025-09-28T18:19:39+08:00 | 484.68849761395427 |
| 2025-09-28T18:19:44+08:00 | 484.6912950468981 |
| 2025-09-28T18:19:58+08:00 | 485.6883330590752 |
| 2025-09-28T18:20:03+08:00 | 491.0034556524601 |
| 2025-09-28T21:09:50+08:00 | 491.0051012012506 |
| 2025-09-28T21:09:57+08:00 | 493.09544182985024 |
| 2025-09-28T21:10:03+08:00 | 497.94981076188907 |
| 2025-09-28T21:10:10+08:00 | 498.3949317097252 |
| 2025-09-28T21:10:16+08:00 | 505.56952443639955 |
| 2025-09-28T21:10:22+08:00 | 506.4308046733586 |
| 2025-09-28T21:10:28+08:00 | 511.2851736053974 |
| 2025-09-28T22:09:02+08:00 | 513.1499094948165 |
| 2025-09-28T22:09:07+08:00 | 517.4612473259832 |
| 2025-09-29T08:38:44+08:00 | 517.4614118808622 |
| 2025-09-29T08:38:56+08:00 | 518.426032581866 |
| 2025-09-29T08:38:59+08:00 | 522.7727497120289 |
| 2025-09-29T08:39:41+08:00 | 522.7727497120289 |
| 2025-09-29T08:39:50+08:00 | 557.9710383412868 |
| 2025-09-29T08:48:39+08:00 | 590.4350831002139 |
| 2025-09-29T09:21:38+08:00 | 590.4694750699358 |
| 2025-09-29T09:21:47+08:00 | 591.9312160605562 |
| 2025-09-29T09:21:56+08:00 | 602.9563929570512 |
| 2025-09-29T09:22:11+08:00 | 609.0449234819812 |
| 2025-09-29T09:22:57+08:00 | 609.0454171466184 |
| 2025-09-29T10:10:26+08:00 | 617.3934507158137 |
| 2025-09-29T10:10:44+08:00 | 626.1378969886457 |
| 2025-09-29T10:10:47+08:00 | 630.0510120125061 |
| 2025-09-29T10:10:50+08:00 | 663.3898305084746 |
| 2025-09-29T11:08:30+08:00 | 663.4758927102189 |
| 2025-09-29T11:08:42+08:00 | 671.2305413855521 |
| 2025-09-29T11:08:46+08:00 | 673.8996215237781 |
| 2025-09-29T11:08:54+08:00 | 703.4536778015469 |
| 2025-09-29T12:10:07+08:00 | 726.7711041632384 |
| 2025-09-29T12:10:20+08:00 | 726.8020404805003 |
| 2025-09-29T12:10:35+08:00 | 732.8377488892546 |
| 2025-09-29T12:10:43+08:00 | 732.8370906697384 |
| 2025-09-29T13:42:32+08:00 | 732.8621030113543 |
| 2025-09-29T13:42:43+08:00 | 738.7110416323844 |
| 2025-09-29T13:42:46+08:00 | 757.6842191870988 |
| 2025-09-29T14:00:47+08:00 | 757.7358894191212 |
| 2025-09-29T14:00:58+08:00 | 865.848444956393 |
| 2025-09-29T14:03:19+08:00 | 871.8046733585651 |
| 2025-09-29T14:03:22+08:00 | 871.804344248807 |
| 2025-09-29T14:07:03+08:00 | 892.8704953101859 |
| 2025-09-29T14:07:20+08:00 | 914.0980747079151 |
| 2025-09-29T14:40:55+08:00 | 924.9586967253579 |
| 2025-09-29T15:08:23+08:00 | 924.9753167681422 |
| 2025-09-29T15:08:29+08:00 | 932.1696560803027 |
| 2025-09-29T15:08:32+08:00 | 932.1064670067467 |
| 2025-09-29T15:08:35+08:00 | 952.955570182656 |
| 2025-09-29T16:13:35+08:00 | 953.0319236465361 |
| 2025-09-29T16:13:49+08:00 | 958.280730623663 |
| 2025-09-29T16:13:52+08:00 | 958.2675662333388 |
| 2025-09-29T16:13:59+08:00 | 982.3584005265756 |
| 2025-09-29T17:06:20+08:00 | 982.4344248806977 |
| 2025-09-29T17:06:27+08:00 | 1015.5241072897811 |
| 2025-09-29T17:06:30+08:00 | 1023.1007075859799 |
| 2025-09-29T17:06:33+08:00 | 1174.0962646042456 |
| 2025-09-29T17:18:45+08:00 | 1238.2726674345895 |
| 2025-09-29T17:48:54+08:00 | 1251.4370577587626 |
| 2025-09-29T17:57:35+08:00 | 1307.3857166364983 |
| 2025-09-29T17:58:16+08:00 | 1355.1066315616258 |
| 2025-09-29T18:03:44+08:00 | 1360.9697219022544 |
| 2025-09-29T18:03:56+08:00 | 1379.2228073062365 |
| 2025-09-29T18:04:01+08:00 | 1381.5968405463223 |
| 2025-09-29T18:05:01+08:00 | 1407.7847622181998 |
| 2025-09-29T18:05:12+08:00 | 1482.3610334046405 |
| 2025-09-29T20:18:44+08:00 | 1482.391311502386 |
| 2025-09-29T20:18:49+08:00 | 1494.637321046569 |
| 2025-09-29T20:18:55+08:00 | 1550.9480006582196 |
| 2025-09-29T20:19:10+08:00 | 1557.6146124732597 |
| 2025-09-29T20:19:16+08:00 | 1588.6661181504032 |
| 2025-09-29T21:40:20+08:00 | 1595.0997202567057 |
| 2025-09-29T21:40:25+08:00 | 1630.709396083594 |
| 2025-09-29T22:12:00+08:00 | 1636.255553727168 |
| 2025-09-29T22:12:06+08:00 | 1674.8601283528058 |
| 2025-09-29T23:59:38+08:00 | 1683.9855191706433 |
| 2025-09-30T08:47:04+08:00 | 1683.9855191706433 |
| 2025-09-30T08:47:12+08:00 | 1683.9855191706433 |
| 2025-09-30T08:47:25+08:00 | 1683.9851900608853 |
| 2025-09-30T08:47:53+08:00 | 1700.5698535461577 |
| 2025-09-30T08:48:05+08:00 | 1854.74131973013 |
| 2025-09-30T09:04:48+08:00 | 1854.8665459930887 |
| 2025-09-30T09:05:02+08:00 | 1858.0673029455324 |
| 2025-09-30T09:05:07+08:00 | 1887.8188250781636 |
| 2025-09-30T09:37:08+08:00 | 1900.9832154023368 |
| 2025-09-30T09:38:55+08:00 | 1921.8816850419614 |
| 2025-09-30T10:17:13+08:00 | 1927.5150567714334 |
| 2025-09-30T10:18:26+08:00 | 1944.9091657067631 |
| 2025-09-30T10:18:38+08:00 | 1944.908672042126 |
| 2025-09-30T10:18:45+08:00 | 2031.1189731775546 |
| 2025-09-30T11:08:30+08:00 | 2031.3065657396742 |
| 2025-09-30T11:09:14+08:00 | 2046.0594043113379 |
| 2025-09-30T11:09:23+08:00 | 2046.0559486588777 |
| 2025-09-30T11:09:34+08:00 | 2139.1117327628763 |
| 2025-09-30T12:04:28+08:00 | 2142.368602929077 |
| 2025-09-30T12:05:05+08:00 | 2152.2418956722067 |
| 2025-09-30T12:05:22+08:00 | 2160.545499424058 |
| 2025-09-30T12:05:57+08:00 | 2236.1749218364325 |
| 2025-09-30T13:45:35+08:00 | 2244.2988316603587 |
| 2025-09-30T13:45:41+08:00 | 2245.1879216718776 |
| 2025-09-30T13:46:02+08:00 | 2295.8708244199443 |
| 2025-09-30T14:10:20+08:00 | 2301.6192200098735 |
| 2025-09-30T14:10:37+08:00 | 2303.927266743459 |
| 2025-09-30T14:10:50+08:00 | 2354.97219022544 |
| 2025-09-30T14:11:31+08:00 | 2379.96527892052 |
| 2025-09-30T15:10:04+08:00 | 2386.5002468323187 |
| 2025-09-30T15:10:16+08:00 | 2393.377324337667 |
| 2025-09-30T15:10:32+08:00 | 2451.3170972519333 |
| 2025-09-30T15:57:18+08:00 | 2462.177719269376 |
| 2025-09-30T16:04:42+08:00 | 2475.432121112391 |
| 2025-09-30T16:13:22+08:00 | 2534.721244034886 |
| 2025-09-30T17:06:11+08:00 | 2545.830343919697 |
| 2025-09-30T17:06:34+08:00 | 2601.0714168175086 |
| 2025-09-30T17:42:47+08:00 | 2951.5733091986176 |
| 2025-09-30T18:03:43+08:00 | 2977.2203389830506 |
| 2025-09-30T18:04:24+08:00 | 2984.8007240414677 |
| 2025-09-30T18:09:56+08:00 | 3023.7837748889256 |
| 2025-09-30T20:14:41+08:00 | 3027.0070758597994 |
| 2025-09-30T20:14:46+08:00 | 3066.352147441172 |
| 2025-09-30T20:15:28+08:00 | 3070.876090176074 |
| 2025-09-30T20:15:33+08:00 | 3103.7870659865066 |
| 2025-09-30T21:05:44+08:00 | 3105.9613296034227 |
| 2025-09-30T21:05:50+08:00 | 3133.4584498930394 |
| 2025-09-30T22:12:12+08:00 | 3143.7202567056115 |
| 2025-09-30T22:12:18+08:00 | 3190.536119795952 |
| 2025-10-01T09:36:11+08:00 | 3194.9988481158466 |
| 2025-10-01T09:39:48+08:00 | 3209.7322692117823 |
| 2025-10-01T09:39:54+08:00 | 3434.3167681421755 |
| 2025-10-01T09:40:55+08:00 | 3441.5637650156327 |
| 2025-10-01T09:41:00+08:00 | 3480.365805496133 |
| 2025-10-01T10:13:27+08:00 | 3483.0230376830673 |
| 2025-10-01T10:13:32+08:00 | 3541.3083758433436 |
| 2025-10-01T10:33:06+08:00 | 3541.3083758433436 |
| 2025-10-01T13:07:00+08:00 | 3554.0457462563763 |
| 2025-10-01T13:07:05+08:00 | 3609.2539081783775 |
| 2025-10-01T13:07:49+08:00 | 3615.1090998848117 |
| 2025-10-01T13:07:55+08:00 | 3663.3895013987167 |
| 2025-10-01T13:09:00+08:00 | 3668.6486753332238 |
| 2025-10-01T13:09:05+08:00 | 3721.240414678295 |
| 2025-10-01T16:00:58+08:00 | 3724.7681421754155 |
| 2025-10-01T16:01:03+08:00 | 3774.4966266249794 |
| 2025-10-01T16:01:59+08:00 | 3778.106960671384 |
| 2025-10-01T16:02:04+08:00 | 3815.526740167846 |
| 2025-10-01T16:12:18+08:00 | 3820.8586473588944 |
| 2025-10-01T16:12:23+08:00 | 3862.211288464703 |
| 2025-10-01T18:42:26+08:00 | 3866.5716636498273 |
| 2025-10-01T18:42:32+08:00 | 3909.3394767154846 |
| 2025-10-01T18:43:09+08:00 | 3917.2288958367617 |
| 2025-10-01T18:45:28+08:00 | 3967.598815204871 |
| 2025-10-01T18:45:45+08:00 | 4012.324831331249 |
| 2025-10-01T20:14:32+08:00 | 4017.7521803521477 |
| 2025-10-01T20:14:37+08:00 | 4073.914760572651 |
| 2025-10-01T20:15:18+08:00 | 4079.085403982228 |
| 2025-10-01T20:15:25+08:00 | 4125.9177225604735 |
| 2025-10-01T21:25:12+08:00 | 4133.785914102353 |
| 2025-10-01T21:25:18+08:00 | 4189.964949810762 |
| 2025-10-01T22:09:28+08:00 | 4197.5316768142175 |
| 2025-10-01T22:09:37+08:00 | 4286.934342603258 |
| 2025-10-02T09:40:56+08:00 | 4362.8153694257035 |
| 2025-10-02T09:41:02+08:00 | 4995.825078163568 |
| 2025-10-02T09:42:24+08:00 | 5010.5499424057925 |
| 2025-10-02T09:42:29+08:00 | 5139.774888925456 |
| 2025-10-02T11:22:49+08:00 | 5147.317097251934 |
| 2025-10-02T11:24:42+08:00 | 5555.4131973013 |
| 2025-10-02T11:25:24+08:00 | 5547.913115023861 |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|
| Time | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|
Using the actual oversubscription ratio 6697.8x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.527, Pool B α=0.627) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier
| Lots | Subscription Amount (HKD) | Actual Expected Lots | Predicted Expected Lots | Error |
|---|
CF Pharmtech Allotment Prediction MatrixRows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates guaranteed allotment (≥1 lot)
Mechanism B
Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).
α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].
The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").
Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier
Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.
This page shows expected-lot forecasts for CF Pharmtech (02652): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 10,897 allotment-tier records across 356 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation).
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.
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