Tianyu Semi 02658Expected Lots
Tianyu Semi (02658) Expected Lots
| Rank | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
47.2100M |
| 2 |  老虎 |
9.7100M |
| 3 |  辉立 |
8.0100M |
| 4 |  华泰 |
4.0100M |
| 5 |  华盛 |
2.6100M |
| 6 |  长桥 |
2.0100M |
| 7 |  信诚 |
1.8100M |
| 8 |  盈立 |
1.2100M |
| 9 | 卓锐证券 | 558610K |
| 11 |  艾德 |
47610K |
| 12 |  盈宝 |
38710K |
| 13 |  TradeGo |
16110K |
| 14 |  Funderstone |
2110K |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|---|
| 2025-11-27T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2025-11-27T10:04:13+08:00 | 0.003096152743535348 |
| 2025-11-27T10:05:09+08:00 | 0.026374634481967776 |
| 2025-11-27T10:05:59+08:00 | 0.06077633163236053 |
| 2025-11-27T11:10:19+08:00 | 0.15595436041511382 |
| 2025-11-27T11:10:53+08:00 | 0.42503296829310244 |
| 2025-11-27T11:11:25+08:00 | 0.5110372111690843 |
| 2025-11-27T11:11:51+08:00 | 1.732297460008027 |
| 2025-11-27T12:11:36+08:00 | 1.7724901095120693 |
| 2025-11-27T12:12:08+08:00 | 2.099936930221891 |
| 2025-11-27T12:12:37+08:00 | 2.195975001433404 |
| 2025-11-27T12:13:04+08:00 | 2.757869388223152 |
| 2025-11-27T13:52:43+08:00 | 2.819333753798521 |
| 2025-11-27T13:53:43+08:00 | 3.06742732641477 |
| 2025-11-27T13:54:07+08:00 | 3.0929992546298952 |
| 2025-11-27T13:54:45+08:00 | 3.717963419528697 |
| 2025-11-27T13:55:02+08:00 | 3.832635743363339 |
| 2025-11-27T14:16:06+08:00 | 3.8913479731666762 |
| 2025-11-27T14:16:41+08:00 | 4.03273894845479 |
| 2025-11-27T14:17:28+08:00 | 4.0642165013474 |
| 2025-11-27T14:18:40+08:00 | 4.270626684249756 |
| 2025-11-27T14:20:15+08:00 | 4.297804024998567 |
| 2025-11-27T15:10:30+08:00 | 4.303250960380712 |
| 2025-11-27T15:10:56+08:00 | 4.4453299696118345 |
| 2025-11-27T15:11:38+08:00 | 4.4574278997763885 |
| 2025-11-27T15:12:07+08:00 | 4.531964910268907 |
| 2025-11-27T16:18:32+08:00 | 4.714695258299409 |
| 2025-11-27T16:19:51+08:00 | 4.807694512929305 |
| 2025-11-27T16:20:13+08:00 | 4.933146035204404 |
| 2025-11-27T16:21:02+08:00 | 5.472105957227223 |
| 2025-11-27T16:32:32+08:00 | 5.758786766813829 |
| 2025-11-27T17:00:21+08:00 | 5.777650364084628 |
| 2025-11-27T17:03:33+08:00 | 6.08262140932286 |
| 2025-11-27T17:04:15+08:00 | 6.194426925061636 |
| 2025-11-27T17:06:24+08:00 | 6.7964566251935095 |
| 2025-11-27T17:17:08+08:00 | 8.68854996846511 |
| 2025-11-27T18:02:00+08:00 | 8.689983372513044 |
| 2025-11-27T18:04:29+08:00 | 8.737859067714007 |
| 2025-11-27T18:04:34+08:00 | 8.794793876497907 |
| 2025-11-27T18:05:39+08:00 | 8.834929189840032 |
| 2025-11-27T18:06:43+08:00 | 9.77673298549395 |
| 2025-11-27T20:16:31+08:00 | 9.80413967089043 |
| 2025-11-27T20:16:54+08:00 | 9.826443437876268 |
| 2025-11-27T20:16:58+08:00 | 9.905796685969841 |
| 2025-11-27T20:17:24+08:00 | 10.003268161229288 |
| 2025-11-27T20:18:18+08:00 | 10.052978613611605 |
| 2025-11-27T20:18:28+08:00 | 10.05974428071785 |
| 2025-11-27T20:18:58+08:00 | 10.09414597786824 |
| 2025-11-27T21:26:48+08:00 | 10.195286967490397 |
| 2025-11-27T21:26:53+08:00 | 10.214838598704203 |
| 2025-11-27T21:27:18+08:00 | 10.381113468264434 |
| 2025-11-27T22:03:52+08:00 | 10.39533283641993 |
| 2025-11-27T22:03:58+08:00 | 10.398945014620722 |
| 2025-11-27T22:10:21+08:00 | 10.387477782237257 |
| 2025-11-28T08:36:16+08:00 | 10.401697150392753 |
| 2025-11-28T08:36:18+08:00 | 10.461212086462933 |
| 2025-11-28T08:36:49+08:00 | 10.46298950748237 |
| 2025-11-28T08:36:52+08:00 | 10.43621351986698 |
| 2025-11-28T08:37:29+08:00 | 11.08411214953271 |
| 2025-11-28T08:39:42+08:00 | 11.08411214953271 |
| 2025-11-28T09:22:00+08:00 | 11.138065477896909 |
| 2025-11-28T09:22:54+08:00 | 11.129063700475891 |
| 2025-11-28T09:23:27+08:00 | 11.58775299581446 |
| 2025-11-28T09:23:58+08:00 | 11.588842382890888 |
| 2025-11-28T09:40:20+08:00 | 11.841121495327103 |
| 2025-11-28T09:44:30+08:00 | 12.005160254572559 |
| 2025-11-28T10:00:43+08:00 | 12.014391376641248 |
| 2025-11-28T10:06:53+08:00 | 12.043403474571413 |
| 2025-11-28T10:07:15+08:00 | 12.151252795137893 |
| 2025-11-28T10:07:45+08:00 | 12.363396594231983 |
| 2025-11-28T11:11:56+08:00 | 12.360071096840777 |
| 2025-11-28T11:12:57+08:00 | 12.397339602087037 |
| 2025-11-28T11:13:21+08:00 | 12.426007683045697 |
| 2025-11-28T11:13:51+08:00 | 12.411558970242533 |
| 2025-11-28T12:06:21+08:00 | 12.419643369072874 |
| 2025-11-28T12:07:05+08:00 | 12.46683103033083 |
| 2025-11-28T12:07:25+08:00 | 12.528983429849205 |
| 2025-11-28T12:07:43+08:00 | 12.86153316896967 |
| 2025-11-28T13:44:58+08:00 | 12.865030674846626 |
| 2025-11-28T13:45:29+08:00 | 12.894386789748294 |
| 2025-11-28T13:45:57+08:00 | 12.922653517573533 |
| 2025-11-28T13:46:16+08:00 | 13.088928387133766 |
| 2025-11-28T14:01:44+08:00 | 13.093629952410986 |
| 2025-11-28T14:03:14+08:00 | 13.24912562353076 |
| 2025-11-28T14:04:39+08:00 | 13.261280889857233 |
| 2025-11-28T14:05:02+08:00 | 13.290751677082737 |
| 2025-11-28T14:05:25+08:00 | 13.629035032394931 |
| 2025-11-28T15:19:58+08:00 | 13.688091279169772 |
| 2025-11-28T15:20:24+08:00 | 13.655983028496072 |
| 2025-11-28T15:21:18+08:00 | 13.78229459319993 |
| 2025-11-28T15:21:45+08:00 | 14.349922596181411 |
| 2025-11-28T15:30:36+08:00 | 14.636603405768017 |
| 2025-11-28T16:09:22+08:00 | 14.660340576801788 |
| 2025-11-28T16:09:50+08:00 | 14.673183877071269 |
| 2025-11-28T16:10:32+08:00 | 14.683619058540222 |
| 2025-11-28T16:10:58+08:00 | 14.70655352330715 |
| 2025-11-28T17:08:38+08:00 | 14.693939567685339 |
| 2025-11-28T17:09:01+08:00 | 14.713261854251476 |
| 2025-11-28T17:09:30+08:00 | 14.755002580127286 |
| 2025-11-28T17:09:49+08:00 | 14.881142136345392 |
| 2025-11-28T17:43:40+08:00 | 15.282495269766642 |
| 2025-11-28T18:03:04+08:00 | 15.283068631385815 |
| 2025-11-28T18:03:29+08:00 | 15.306232440800413 |
| 2025-11-28T18:03:36+08:00 | 15.335015194082908 |
| 2025-11-28T18:04:30+08:00 | 15.399633048563729 |
| 2025-11-28T18:06:14+08:00 | 15.434034745714122 |
| 2025-11-28T21:04:00+08:00 | 15.437876268562583 |
| 2025-11-28T21:04:43+08:00 | 15.441201765953787 |
| 2025-11-28T21:04:59+08:00 | 15.441717791411042 |
| 2025-11-28T21:05:32+08:00 | 15.51625480190356 |
| 2025-11-28T21:06:03+08:00 | 15.51069319419758 |
| 2025-11-28T21:06:18+08:00 | 15.535347743822028 |
| 2025-11-28T21:06:35+08:00 | 15.541081360013761 |
| 2025-11-28T21:06:43+08:00 | 15.52055501404736 |
| 2025-11-28T21:07:11+08:00 | 15.522791124362135 |
| 2025-11-28T21:07:24+08:00 | 15.677598761538903 |
| 2025-11-28T22:08:20+08:00 | 15.678057450834242 |
| 2025-11-28T22:08:24+08:00 | 15.687231236741013 |
| 2025-11-28T22:08:36+08:00 | 15.692964852932745 |
| 2025-11-29T07:20:30+08:00 | 15.740897884295626 |
| 2025-11-29T07:21:19+08:00 | 15.740897884295626 |
| 2025-11-29T07:21:42+08:00 | 15.686199185826501 |
| 2025-11-29T07:21:46+08:00 | 15.68728857290293 |
| 2025-11-29T09:23:00+08:00 | 15.688033943007856 |
| 2025-11-29T09:23:29+08:00 | 15.954761768247234 |
| 2025-11-29T09:23:48+08:00 | 16.37331575024368 |
| 2025-11-29T09:24:11+08:00 | 16.384668310303308 |
| 2025-11-29T09:25:07+08:00 | 16.385413680408234 |
| 2025-11-29T09:25:17+08:00 | 16.385815033541654 |
| 2025-11-29T09:25:30+08:00 | 17.435066796628632 |
| 2025-11-29T10:44:35+08:00 | 17.43552548592397 |
| 2025-11-29T10:45:06+08:00 | 17.436270856028898 |
| 2025-11-29T10:45:10+08:00 | 17.44498595264033 |
| 2025-11-29T10:45:29+08:00 | 17.433518720256867 |
| 2025-11-29T11:16:44+08:00 | 17.437188234619576 |
| 2025-11-29T11:17:10+08:00 | 17.410125566194598 |
| 2025-11-29T11:17:17+08:00 | 17.42015939453013 |
| 2025-11-29T11:17:29+08:00 | 17.466028324063988 |
| 2025-11-29T12:23:22+08:00 | 17.469124476807522 |
| 2025-11-29T12:23:49+08:00 | 17.47153259560805 |
| 2025-11-29T12:24:01+08:00 | 17.976721518261567 |
| 2025-11-29T12:24:13+08:00 | 17.999655983028497 |
| 2025-11-29T15:56:24+08:00 | 18.000229344647668 |
| 2025-11-29T15:56:36+08:00 | 18.02075569061407 |
| 2025-11-29T15:56:58+08:00 | 18.026489306805804 |
| 2025-11-29T15:57:15+08:00 | 18.002293446476692 |
| 2025-11-29T15:57:20+08:00 | 18.005217590734475 |
| 2025-11-29T15:57:35+08:00 | 18.01668482311794 |
| 2025-11-29T15:57:48+08:00 | 18.03101886359727 |
| 2025-11-29T15:58:13+08:00 | 18.031764233702194 |
| 2025-11-29T15:58:17+08:00 | 18.040766011123214 |
| 2025-11-29T19:02:48+08:00 | 18.069434092081877 |
| 2025-11-29T19:03:07+08:00 | 18.03875924545611 |
| 2025-11-29T19:03:28+08:00 | 18.05842554899375 |
| 2025-11-29T19:04:27+08:00 | 18.060948340118113 |
| 2025-11-29T19:04:49+08:00 | 18.071326185425146 |
| 2025-11-29T19:05:34+08:00 | 18.053207958259275 |
| 2025-11-29T19:05:39+08:00 | 18.053895992202282 |
| 2025-11-29T20:21:33+08:00 | 18.054928043116792 |
| 2025-11-29T20:21:39+08:00 | 18.055157387764464 |
| 2025-11-29T20:21:58+08:00 | 18.060891003956193 |
| 2025-11-29T21:25:55+08:00 | 18.069950117539133 |
| 2025-11-29T22:09:57+08:00 | 18.071039504615563 |
| 2025-11-29T22:10:13+08:00 | 18.071211513101314 |
| 2025-11-29T22:10:56+08:00 | 18.099879594059974 |
| 2025-11-30T10:35:07+08:00 | 18.070982168453643 |
| 2025-11-30T10:35:12+08:00 | 18.04455019780976 |
| 2025-11-30T10:38:20+08:00 | 17.91777994381056 |
| 2025-11-30T10:40:06+08:00 | 17.889226535175734 |
| 2025-11-30T10:40:11+08:00 | 17.889914569118744 |
| 2025-11-30T10:43:13+08:00 | 17.872713720543548 |
| 2025-11-30T10:43:17+08:00 | 17.975918811994724 |
| 2025-11-30T10:43:21+08:00 | 17.98738604437819 |
| 2025-11-30T12:31:22+08:00 | 17.988360759130785 |
| 2025-11-30T12:31:38+08:00 | 17.989163465397628 |
| 2025-11-30T12:32:30+08:00 | 17.99203027349349 |
| 2025-11-30T12:32:41+08:00 | 18.01519408290809 |
| 2025-11-30T12:33:42+08:00 | 18.015652772203428 |
| 2025-11-30T12:33:54+08:00 | 18.01582478068918 |
| 2025-11-30T12:34:55+08:00 | 18.044492861647843 |
| 2025-11-30T12:35:04+08:00 | 18.084628174989966 |
| 2025-11-30T17:24:02+08:00 | 18.088297689352675 |
| 2025-11-30T17:24:07+08:00 | 18.08881371480993 |
| 2025-11-30T17:24:13+08:00 | 18.089329740267186 |
| 2025-11-30T17:24:18+08:00 | 18.092769909982227 |
| 2025-11-30T17:24:24+08:00 | 18.09162318674388 |
| 2025-11-30T17:26:05+08:00 | 18.113582936758213 |
| 2025-11-30T17:26:10+08:00 | 18.116105727882577 |
| 2025-11-30T17:26:15+08:00 | 18.11639240869216 |
| 2025-11-30T17:26:19+08:00 | 18.12390344590333 |
| 2025-11-30T17:26:24+08:00 | 18.09076314431512 |
| 2025-11-30T17:28:54+08:00 | 18.125164841465512 |
| 2025-11-30T17:28:58+08:00 | 17.110314775528927 |
| 2025-11-30T17:29:02+08:00 | 17.127515624104124 |
| 2025-11-30T17:29:06+08:00 | 17.133249240295854 |
| 2025-11-30T17:29:10+08:00 | 16.966974370735624 |
| 2025-11-30T17:31:51+08:00 | 16.95395906198039 |
| 2025-11-30T17:31:55+08:00 | 16.951780287827532 |
| 2025-11-30T17:32:00+08:00 | 16.918582650077404 |
| 2025-11-30T22:06:38+08:00 | 16.92185081130669 |
| 2025-11-30T22:06:43+08:00 | 16.894616134395964 |
| 2025-11-30T22:06:47+08:00 | 16.87345909064847 |
| 2025-11-30T22:09:08+08:00 | 16.873688435296142 |
| 2025-11-30T22:09:12+08:00 | 16.378820021787742 |
| 2025-11-30T22:09:16+08:00 | 16.379852072702253 |
| 2025-11-30T22:09:20+08:00 | 16.380712115131015 |
| 2025-11-30T22:11:19+08:00 | 16.37996674502609 |
| 2025-11-30T22:11:23+08:00 | 16.38822315234218 |
| 2025-11-30T22:12:58+08:00 | 16.41689123330084 |
| 2025-11-30T22:13:02+08:00 | 16.422624849492575 |
| 2025-11-30T22:13:06+08:00 | 16.42835846568431 |
| 2025-11-30T22:13:10+08:00 | 16.4627601628347 |
| 2025-11-30T22:13:15+08:00 | 16.485694627601628 |
| 2025-12-01T08:45:52+08:00 | 16.472277965712976 |
| 2025-12-01T08:46:06+08:00 | 16.50937446247348 |
| 2025-12-01T08:47:31+08:00 | 16.503354165472164 |
| 2025-12-01T08:47:34+08:00 | 16.49165758844103 |
| 2025-12-01T08:47:49+08:00 | 17.070752823805975 |
| 2025-12-01T08:48:31+08:00 | 17.070752823805975 |
| 2025-12-01T09:07:02+08:00 | 17.082105383865603 |
| 2025-12-01T09:07:20+08:00 | 17.0993062324408 |
| 2025-12-01T09:07:47+08:00 | 17.094662003325496 |
| 2025-12-01T09:08:17+08:00 | 17.09718479444986 |
| 2025-12-01T09:13:52+08:00 | 16.812396078206525 |
| 2025-12-01T10:12:10+08:00 | 16.818645719855514 |
| 2025-12-01T10:12:34+08:00 | 16.85167134911989 |
| 2025-12-01T10:13:21+08:00 | 17.614242302620262 |
| 2025-12-01T10:13:51+08:00 | 17.596869445559314 |
| 2025-12-01T11:11:06+08:00 | 17.638208818301703 |
| 2025-12-01T11:11:45+08:00 | 17.81956309844619 |
| 2025-12-01T11:12:02+08:00 | 18.610802132905224 |
| 2025-12-01T11:12:31+08:00 | 18.572616249068286 |
| 2025-12-01T12:03:51+08:00 | 18.59222521644401 |
| 2025-12-01T12:04:28+08:00 | 18.532366263402327 |
| 2025-12-01T12:05:06+08:00 | 18.544693538214553 |
| 2025-12-01T12:05:29+08:00 | 18.75110372111691 |
| 2025-12-01T13:44:53+08:00 | 18.76715784645376 |
| 2025-12-01T13:45:17+08:00 | 18.768132561206354 |
| 2025-12-01T13:45:40+08:00 | 18.905739349807924 |
| 2025-12-01T13:47:48+08:00 | 18.89060260306175 |
| 2025-12-01T14:02:19+08:00 | 18.914282437933604 |
| 2025-12-01T14:03:08+08:00 | 19.363568602717734 |
| 2025-12-01T14:04:45+08:00 | 19.392580700647898 |
| 2025-12-01T14:05:09+08:00 | 19.383464250903046 |
| 2025-12-01T14:05:29+08:00 | 19.647210595722722 |
| 2025-12-01T14:21:00+08:00 | 20.10589989106129 |
| 2025-12-01T15:15:52+08:00 | 20.117195114959003 |
| 2025-12-01T15:16:22+08:00 | 20.197064388509833 |
| 2025-12-01T15:16:39+08:00 | 20.219712172467176 |
| 2025-12-01T15:17:32+08:00 | 20.374519809643942 |
| 2025-12-01T16:31:07+08:00 | 21.413336391261968 |
| 2025-12-01T16:31:52+08:00 | 21.786021443724557 |
| 2025-12-01T17:23:06+08:00 | 22.178774152858207 |
| 2025-12-01T17:23:53+08:00 | 26.220973568029358 |
| 2025-12-01T17:59:38+08:00 | 28.801100854308814 |
| 2025-12-01T18:04:31+08:00 | 29.12138065477897 |
| 2025-12-01T18:05:10+08:00 | 29.333811134682644 |
| 2025-12-01T18:06:06+08:00 | 30.543604151138123 |
| 2025-12-01T18:07:18+08:00 | 30.350438621638666 |
| 2025-12-01T18:09:08+08:00 | 31.095808726563845 |
| 2025-12-01T19:45:42+08:00 | 31.237658391147296 |
| 2025-12-01T19:45:59+08:00 | 31.6848804541024 |
| 2025-12-01T20:08:47+08:00 | 31.934579439252335 |
| 2025-12-01T20:09:11+08:00 | 32.605412533685 |
| 2025-12-01T21:35:57+08:00 | 32.77799438105613 |
| 2025-12-01T21:36:13+08:00 | 33.7183074365002 |
| 2025-12-01T22:03:48+08:00 | 34.04615561034344 |
| 2025-12-01T22:08:04+08:00 | 35.15847715153948 |
| 2025-12-02T08:54:46+08:00 | 35.09357261624907 |
| 2025-12-02T08:54:59+08:00 | 35.75064503182157 |
| 2025-12-02T08:55:17+08:00 | 41.862679892208014 |
| 2025-12-02T08:56:20+08:00 | 41.862679892208014 |
| 2025-12-02T09:05:19+08:00 | 42.12304340347457 |
| 2025-12-02T09:05:45+08:00 | 43.2525657932458 |
| 2025-12-02T09:06:21+08:00 | 44.20016054125337 |
| 2025-12-02T09:27:00+08:00 | 44.486841350839974 |
| 2025-12-02T09:32:06+08:00 | 44.20016054125337 |
| 2025-12-02T10:23:27+08:00 | 44.13754945243966 |
| 2025-12-02T17:26:46+08:00 | 44.19 |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|
| Time | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|
Using the actual oversubscription ratio 60.63x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.569, Pool B α=0.669) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier
| Lots | Subscription Amount (HKD) | Actual Expected Lots | Predicted Expected Lots | Error |
|---|
Tianyu Semi Allotment Prediction MatrixRows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates guaranteed allotment (≥1 lot)
Mechanism B
Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).
α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].
The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").
Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier
Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.
This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Tianyu Semi (02658): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 10,897 allotment-tier records across 356 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation).
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.
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