Bao Pharma-B 02659Expected Lots
Bao Pharma-B (02659) Expected Lots
| Rank | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
1650.7100M |
| 2 |  辉立 |
500.0100M |
| 3 |  老虎 |
293.5100M |
| 4 |  华泰 |
135.8100M |
| 5 |  华盛 |
50.5100M |
| 6 | 卓锐证券 | 24.6100M |
| 7 |  长桥 |
11.9100M |
| 8 |  盈立 |
10.4100M |
| 9 |  TradeGo |
8.2100M |
| 11 |  信诚 |
4.0100M |
| 12 |  盈宝 |
1.1100M |
| 13 |  艾德 |
914410K |
| 14 |  Funderstone |
585210K |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-02T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2025-12-02T10:23:30+08:00 | 0.9266073392660734 |
| 2025-12-02T10:23:46+08:00 | 1.1766823317668234 |
| 2025-12-02T10:24:04+08:00 | 1.2831716828317168 |
| 2025-12-02T10:24:25+08:00 | 2.283071692830717 |
| 2025-12-02T10:32:38+08:00 | 2.2854714528547144 |
| 2025-12-02T10:47:19+08:00 | 2.3094690530946904 |
| 2025-12-02T11:15:02+08:00 | 2.6594340565943404 |
| 2025-12-02T11:15:07+08:00 | 3.6554344565543446 |
| 2025-12-02T11:15:46+08:00 | 4.042995700429957 |
| 2025-12-02T11:16:00+08:00 | 4.569243075692431 |
| 2025-12-02T11:16:21+08:00 | 8.948805119488052 |
| 2025-12-02T11:16:27+08:00 | 8.949605039496051 |
| 2025-12-02T11:53:10+08:00 | 8.997600239976002 |
| 2025-12-02T11:53:15+08:00 | 8.998300169983002 |
| 2025-12-02T12:01:42+08:00 | 9.039096090390961 |
| 2025-12-02T12:02:15+08:00 | 8.991100889911008 |
| 2025-12-02T12:06:53+08:00 | 9.477452254774523 |
| 2025-12-02T12:07:10+08:00 | 11.434356564343565 |
| 2025-12-02T12:07:40+08:00 | 14.444055594440556 |
| 2025-12-02T13:48:36+08:00 | 14.451554844515549 |
| 2025-12-02T13:48:39+08:00 | 14.457354264573542 |
| 2025-12-02T13:48:42+08:00 | 14.459054094590542 |
| 2025-12-02T13:48:59+08:00 | 14.474252574742525 |
| 2025-12-02T13:49:15+08:00 | 14.741625837416258 |
| 2025-12-02T13:49:33+08:00 | 14.990500949905009 |
| 2025-12-02T13:49:56+08:00 | 19.37006299370063 |
| 2025-12-02T14:07:06+08:00 | 19.68333166683332 |
| 2025-12-02T14:07:29+08:00 | 19.744325567443255 |
| 2025-12-02T14:07:43+08:00 | 21.137186281371864 |
| 2025-12-02T14:08:09+08:00 | 24.62683731626837 |
| 2025-12-02T14:09:28+08:00 | 26.36046395360464 |
| 2025-12-02T14:37:25+08:00 | 26.363463653634636 |
| 2025-12-02T15:03:22+08:00 | 26.63043695630437 |
| 2025-12-02T15:03:44+08:00 | 26.933606639336066 |
| 2025-12-02T15:04:06+08:00 | 27.10778922107789 |
| 2025-12-02T15:05:36+08:00 | 29.577542245775422 |
| 2025-12-02T16:23:38+08:00 | 29.90890910908909 |
| 2025-12-02T16:23:43+08:00 | 31.44865513448655 |
| 2025-12-02T16:24:12+08:00 | 35.75822417758224 |
| 2025-12-02T16:24:24+08:00 | 36.0978902109789 |
| 2025-12-02T16:32:54+08:00 | 36.1001899810019 |
| 2025-12-02T17:16:37+08:00 | 39.1998800119988 |
| 2025-12-02T17:17:00+08:00 | 40.343765623437655 |
| 2025-12-02T17:17:18+08:00 | 40.344565543445654 |
| 2025-12-02T17:17:34+08:00 | 40.76882311768823 |
| 2025-12-02T17:17:48+08:00 | 44.72842715728427 |
| 2025-12-02T17:18:11+08:00 | 44.72142785721428 |
| 2025-12-02T17:37:40+08:00 | 46.021297870212976 |
| 2025-12-02T17:38:28+08:00 | 46.023697630236974 |
| 2025-12-02T18:01:42+08:00 | 47.02359764023598 |
| 2025-12-02T18:02:02+08:00 | 47.120587941205876 |
| 2025-12-02T18:02:09+08:00 | 47.12068793120688 |
| 2025-12-02T18:04:33+08:00 | 49.34666533346665 |
| 2025-12-02T18:04:51+08:00 | 49.52184781521848 |
| 2025-12-02T18:04:56+08:00 | 50.402259774022596 |
| 2025-12-02T18:05:23+08:00 | 52.35206479352065 |
| 2025-12-02T20:19:32+08:00 | 52.352864713528646 |
| 2025-12-02T20:19:48+08:00 | 52.46925307469253 |
| 2025-12-02T20:19:53+08:00 | 52.599040095990404 |
| 2025-12-02T20:19:58+08:00 | 53.00359964003599 |
| 2025-12-02T20:20:23+08:00 | 55.583341665833416 |
| 2025-12-02T20:20:33+08:00 | 55.58484151584842 |
| 2025-12-02T20:20:42+08:00 | 55.76072392760724 |
| 2025-12-02T20:20:47+08:00 | 55.86291370862914 |
| 2025-12-02T20:21:12+08:00 | 57.27277272272773 |
| 2025-12-02T20:44:39+08:00 | 57.27357264273573 |
| 2025-12-02T21:28:25+08:00 | 57.27437256274373 |
| 2025-12-02T21:28:35+08:00 | 57.275272472752725 |
| 2025-12-02T21:28:40+08:00 | 57.361763823617636 |
| 2025-12-02T21:28:44+08:00 | 58.44935506449355 |
| 2025-12-02T21:29:08+08:00 | 58.42935706429357 |
| 2025-12-02T21:29:17+08:00 | 58.43015698430157 |
| 2025-12-02T22:04:13+08:00 | 58.43185681431857 |
| 2025-12-02T22:04:29+08:00 | 58.48985101489851 |
| 2025-12-02T22:04:34+08:00 | 59.65093490650935 |
| 2025-12-02T22:06:15+08:00 | 62.370662933706626 |
| 2025-12-03T09:47:56+08:00 | 62.442555744425555 |
| 2025-12-03T09:48:04+08:00 | 62.49135086491351 |
| 2025-12-03T09:48:15+08:00 | 62.625137486251376 |
| 2025-12-03T09:48:27+08:00 | 63.076892310768926 |
| 2025-12-03T09:49:06+08:00 | 63.076892310768926 |
| 2025-12-03T09:49:16+08:00 | 63.1015898410159 |
| 2025-12-03T09:49:21+08:00 | 63.1015898410159 |
| 2025-12-03T09:51:17+08:00 | 63.44455554444556 |
| 2025-12-03T09:51:22+08:00 | 66.00849915008499 |
| 2025-12-03T09:51:57+08:00 | 77.25737426257375 |
| 2025-12-03T09:52:06+08:00 | 77.27997200279972 |
| 2025-12-03T09:52:15+08:00 | 77.29247075292471 |
| 2025-12-03T09:52:19+08:00 | 77.16418358164184 |
| 2025-12-03T09:52:40+08:00 | 77.16498350164983 |
| 2025-12-03T09:52:45+08:00 | 77.21627837216279 |
| 2025-12-03T09:52:48+08:00 | 77.44705529447056 |
| 2025-12-03T09:53:08+08:00 | 81.37666233376662 |
| 2025-12-03T09:53:17+08:00 | 82.17658234176582 |
| 2025-12-03T10:09:37+08:00 | 82.38576142385762 |
| 2025-12-03T10:09:58+08:00 | 85.98540145985402 |
| 2025-12-03T10:10:16+08:00 | 86.73042695730427 |
| 2025-12-03T10:12:24+08:00 | 89.2101789821018 |
| 2025-12-03T10:12:41+08:00 | 91.11198880111989 |
| 2025-12-03T10:12:56+08:00 | 97.93130686931306 |
| 2025-12-03T10:44:40+08:00 | 97.93220677932207 |
| 2025-12-03T11:05:26+08:00 | 99.66303369663034 |
| 2025-12-03T11:06:19+08:00 | 100.6003399660034 |
| 2025-12-03T11:06:33+08:00 | 106.80971902809719 |
| 2025-12-03T11:06:49+08:00 | 107.03419658034197 |
| 2025-12-03T11:07:04+08:00 | 107.03619638036196 |
| 2025-12-03T11:50:07+08:00 | 107.03689631036896 |
| 2025-12-03T12:06:11+08:00 | 107.19748025197481 |
| 2025-12-03T12:06:25+08:00 | 108.76512348765124 |
| 2025-12-03T12:06:33+08:00 | 116.98430156984301 |
| 2025-12-03T12:06:45+08:00 | 117.00829917008299 |
| 2025-12-03T12:07:00+08:00 | 117.40725927407259 |
| 2025-12-03T13:49:22+08:00 | 117.51374862513748 |
| 2025-12-03T13:49:33+08:00 | 117.63133686631336 |
| 2025-12-03T13:49:51+08:00 | 118.43155684431557 |
| 2025-12-03T13:50:14+08:00 | 118.43245675432456 |
| 2025-12-03T13:50:26+08:00 | 124.26187381261875 |
| 2025-12-03T13:50:38+08:00 | 125.16178382161783 |
| 2025-12-03T14:07:20+08:00 | 125.27697230276972 |
| 2025-12-03T14:07:43+08:00 | 126.4000599940006 |
| 2025-12-03T14:07:51+08:00 | 126.6900309969003 |
| 2025-12-03T14:08:11+08:00 | 129.8997100289971 |
| 2025-12-03T14:08:45+08:00 | 132.2070792920708 |
| 2025-12-03T15:08:19+08:00 | 132.2829717028297 |
| 2025-12-03T15:09:23+08:00 | 133.11638836116387 |
| 2025-12-03T15:09:39+08:00 | 133.26287371262873 |
| 2025-12-03T15:09:51+08:00 | 138.04239576042397 |
| 2025-12-03T15:20:21+08:00 | 138.04369563043696 |
| 2025-12-03T15:59:57+08:00 | 138.12288771122888 |
| 2025-12-03T16:05:40+08:00 | 138.61893810618938 |
| 2025-12-03T16:05:47+08:00 | 138.75752424757525 |
| 2025-12-03T16:06:13+08:00 | 143.1870812918708 |
| 2025-12-03T16:36:13+08:00 | 143.1873812618738 |
| 2025-12-03T17:01:18+08:00 | 144.18728127187282 |
| 2025-12-03T17:01:27+08:00 | 144.1902809719028 |
| 2025-12-03T17:07:46+08:00 | 144.3030696930307 |
| 2025-12-03T17:07:59+08:00 | 145.62013798620137 |
| 2025-12-03T17:08:10+08:00 | 151.46955304469554 |
| 2025-12-03T17:28:49+08:00 | 151.4952504749525 |
| 2025-12-03T17:29:58+08:00 | 161.4942505749425 |
| 2025-12-03T17:33:47+08:00 | 161.51664833516648 |
| 2025-12-03T18:01:09+08:00 | 161.63023697630237 |
| 2025-12-03T18:01:15+08:00 | 161.8256174382562 |
| 2025-12-03T18:03:00+08:00 | 163.93780621937807 |
| 2025-12-03T18:03:16+08:00 | 164.6915308469153 |
| 2025-12-03T18:03:31+08:00 | 167.5121487851215 |
| 2025-12-03T18:20:51+08:00 | 181.9107089291071 |
| 2025-12-03T20:00:40+08:00 | 181.91150884911508 |
| 2025-12-03T20:00:45+08:00 | 181.98330166983303 |
| 2025-12-03T20:00:55+08:00 | 182.03129687031296 |
| 2025-12-03T20:01:00+08:00 | 182.5015498450155 |
| 2025-12-03T20:01:25+08:00 | 183.65513448655133 |
| 2025-12-03T20:01:30+08:00 | 191.87431256874314 |
| 2025-12-03T20:38:32+08:00 | 191.87671232876713 |
| 2025-12-03T20:38:37+08:00 | 192.03949605039497 |
| 2025-12-03T20:38:54+08:00 | 193.13988601139886 |
| 2025-12-03T20:38:59+08:00 | 199.1092890710929 |
| 2025-12-03T22:02:56+08:00 | 199.24437556244376 |
| 2025-12-03T22:03:06+08:00 | 200.61573842615738 |
| 2025-12-03T22:03:12+08:00 | 206.01519848015198 |
| 2025-12-03T22:03:27+08:00 | 207.4027597240276 |
| 2025-12-03T22:03:32+08:00 | 207.85821417858213 |
| 2025-12-03T22:03:38+08:00 | 208.1095890410959 |
| 2025-12-03T22:03:54+08:00 | 209.3026697330267 |
| 2025-12-03T22:06:05+08:00 | 214.2021797820218 |
| 2025-12-04T08:36:09+08:00 | 214.22657734226578 |
| 2025-12-04T08:36:12+08:00 | 214.23507649235077 |
| 2025-12-04T08:37:11+08:00 | 217.07189281071894 |
| 2025-12-04T08:37:18+08:00 | 221.54384561543844 |
| 2025-12-04T08:37:26+08:00 | 268.3591640835916 |
| 2025-12-04T08:38:07+08:00 | 268.4819518048195 |
| 2025-12-04T08:38:10+08:00 | 269.1119888011199 |
| 2025-12-04T08:38:48+08:00 | 269.1119888011199 |
| 2025-12-04T08:52:22+08:00 | 269.1140885911409 |
| 2025-12-04T09:10:09+08:00 | 269.7978202179782 |
| 2025-12-04T09:10:22+08:00 | 271.25217478252176 |
| 2025-12-04T09:10:30+08:00 | 284.1108889111089 |
| 2025-12-04T09:10:42+08:00 | 284.13978602139787 |
| 2025-12-04T09:10:47+08:00 | 284.3054694530547 |
| 2025-12-04T09:11:41+08:00 | 291.3765623437656 |
| 2025-12-04T10:03:53+08:00 | 291.54554544545545 |
| 2025-12-04T10:03:57+08:00 | 291.54964503549644 |
| 2025-12-04T10:04:00+08:00 | 291.5975402459754 |
| 2025-12-04T10:04:13+08:00 | 295.0971902809719 |
| 2025-12-04T10:04:23+08:00 | 295.4891510848915 |
| 2025-12-04T10:04:32+08:00 | 298.2103789621038 |
| 2025-12-04T10:04:50+08:00 | 300.3982601739826 |
| 2025-12-04T10:05:22+08:00 | 323.24597540245975 |
| 2025-12-04T10:32:19+08:00 | 323.2740725927407 |
| 2025-12-04T10:32:22+08:00 | 323.32196780321965 |
| 2025-12-04T11:02:37+08:00 | 323.6756324367563 |
| 2025-12-04T11:03:16+08:00 | 324.1154884511549 |
| 2025-12-04T11:03:44+08:00 | 325.34116588341163 |
| 2025-12-04T11:05:10+08:00 | 342.73942605739427 |
| 2025-12-04T11:48:51+08:00 | 343.2046795320468 |
| 2025-12-04T12:05:12+08:00 | 343.3237676232377 |
| 2025-12-04T12:05:37+08:00 | 345.27197280271974 |
| 2025-12-04T12:05:43+08:00 | 345.66113388661137 |
| 2025-12-04T12:05:56+08:00 | 360.38966103389663 |
| 2025-12-04T13:56:12+08:00 | 360.50954904509547 |
| 2025-12-04T13:56:18+08:00 | 360.5103489651035 |
| 2025-12-04T13:56:21+08:00 | 360.5120487951205 |
| 2025-12-04T13:56:25+08:00 | 360.5360463953605 |
| 2025-12-04T13:56:31+08:00 | 360.5377462253775 |
| 2025-12-04T13:56:34+08:00 | 360.6033396660334 |
| 2025-12-04T13:56:54+08:00 | 361.7832216778322 |
| 2025-12-04T13:57:04+08:00 | 362.1592840715928 |
| 2025-12-04T13:57:23+08:00 | 365.15898410158985 |
| 2025-12-04T13:57:34+08:00 | 378.7076292370763 |
| 2025-12-04T13:57:43+08:00 | 378.7925207479252 |
| 2025-12-04T14:00:43+08:00 | 379.63013698630135 |
| 2025-12-04T14:01:16+08:00 | 385.1981801819818 |
| 2025-12-04T14:04:15+08:00 | 385.2007799220078 |
| 2025-12-04T14:04:34+08:00 | 387.5948405159484 |
| 2025-12-04T14:04:39+08:00 | 387.84751524847513 |
| 2025-12-04T14:06:02+08:00 | 402.84601539846017 |
| 2025-12-04T14:40:02+08:00 | 402.85081491850815 |
| 2025-12-04T14:40:05+08:00 | 402.87391260873915 |
| 2025-12-04T15:17:56+08:00 | 403.38376162383764 |
| 2025-12-04T15:18:17+08:00 | 405.6141385861414 |
| 2025-12-04T15:18:26+08:00 | 405.63813618638136 |
| 2025-12-04T15:18:30+08:00 | 405.997800219978 |
| 2025-12-04T15:18:35+08:00 | 406.2901709829017 |
| 2025-12-04T15:18:45+08:00 | 419.1188881111889 |
| 2025-12-04T15:39:14+08:00 | 419.1668833116688 |
| 2025-12-04T15:50:19+08:00 | 419.16708329167085 |
| 2025-12-04T16:11:30+08:00 | 419.25497450254977 |
| 2025-12-04T16:12:17+08:00 | 448.9153084691531 |
| 2025-12-04T16:12:32+08:00 | 449.3267673232677 |
| 2025-12-04T16:12:37+08:00 | 562.6654334566543 |
| 2025-12-04T16:33:40+08:00 | 562.9530046995301 |
| 2025-12-04T16:33:44+08:00 | 563.025797420258 |
| 2025-12-04T16:49:27+08:00 | 573.024797520248 |
| 2025-12-04T16:49:48+08:00 | 573.1061893810619 |
| 2025-12-04T17:30:00+08:00 | 573.1412858714128 |
| 2025-12-04T17:30:25+08:00 | 573.1831816818318 |
| 2025-12-04T17:30:27+08:00 | 573.1936806319368 |
| 2025-12-04T17:30:45+08:00 | 605.6126387361264 |
| 2025-12-04T17:31:02+08:00 | 784.8547145285471 |
| 2025-12-04T17:32:35+08:00 | 784.8787121287871 |
| 2025-12-04T17:32:50+08:00 | 925.8646135386462 |
| 2025-12-04T18:04:14+08:00 | 925.988601139886 |
| 2025-12-04T18:04:34+08:00 | 946.5117488251175 |
| 2025-12-04T18:07:58+08:00 | 987.5972402759724 |
| 2025-12-04T18:08:12+08:00 | 1080.06799320068 |
| 2025-12-04T20:15:39+08:00 | 1080.11598840116 |
| 2025-12-04T20:29:12+08:00 | 1080.1167883211679 |
| 2025-12-04T20:29:22+08:00 | 1080.108789121088 |
| 2025-12-04T20:29:27+08:00 | 1080.1216878312168 |
| 2025-12-04T20:29:51+08:00 | 1096.2947705229476 |
| 2025-12-04T20:29:56+08:00 | 1175.906809319068 |
| 2025-12-04T20:30:07+08:00 | 1175.9249075092491 |
| 2025-12-04T20:30:13+08:00 | 1175.924107589241 |
| 2025-12-04T20:30:18+08:00 | 1175.923207679232 |
| 2025-12-04T20:30:34+08:00 | 1175.997400259974 |
| 2025-12-04T20:30:49+08:00 | 1189.8203179682032 |
| 2025-12-04T20:30:54+08:00 | 1259.3233676632337 |
| 2025-12-04T20:31:05+08:00 | 1259.4162583741627 |
| 2025-12-04T21:48:33+08:00 | 1259.4185581441857 |
| 2025-12-04T21:48:44+08:00 | 1259.4218578142186 |
| 2025-12-04T21:48:57+08:00 | 1259.4226577342265 |
| 2025-12-04T21:49:06+08:00 | 1260.104289571043 |
| 2025-12-04T21:49:16+08:00 | 1280.7103289671034 |
| 2025-12-04T21:49:26+08:00 | 1365.8018198180182 |
| 2025-12-04T21:49:43+08:00 | 1365.5620437956204 |
| 2025-12-04T21:49:52+08:00 | 1365.898410158984 |
| 2025-12-04T21:50:00+08:00 | 1365.900709929007 |
| 2025-12-04T22:11:49+08:00 | 1365.905309469053 |
| 2025-12-04T22:12:15+08:00 | 1384.1592840715928 |
| 2025-12-04T22:12:20+08:00 | 1465.931106889311 |
| 2025-12-05T08:58:37+08:00 | 1465.934506549345 |
| 2025-12-05T08:59:13+08:00 | 1466.1742825717429 |
| 2025-12-05T08:59:18+08:00 | 1466.183081691831 |
| 2025-12-05T08:59:23+08:00 | 1466.1869813018698 |
| 2025-12-05T08:59:30+08:00 | 1466.1867813218678 |
| 2025-12-05T09:00:40+08:00 | 1466.1867813218678 |
| 2025-12-05T09:00:58+08:00 | 1466.1867813218678 |
| 2025-12-05T09:01:03+08:00 | 1466.1868813118688 |
| 2025-12-05T09:01:19+08:00 | 1466.1869813018698 |
| 2025-12-05T09:01:45+08:00 | 1466.3546645335466 |
| 2025-12-05T09:01:49+08:00 | 1466.3306669333067 |
| 2025-12-05T09:02:02+08:00 | 1466.3786621337865 |
| 2025-12-05T09:02:18+08:00 | 1537.5413458654134 |
| 2025-12-05T09:02:22+08:00 | 2039.1711828817117 |
| 2025-12-05T09:02:37+08:00 | 2039.4708529147085 |
| 2025-12-05T09:02:44+08:00 | 2039.830616938306 |
| 2025-12-05T09:02:47+08:00 | 2039.8548145185482 |
| 2025-12-05T09:02:50+08:00 | 2040.4305569443056 |
| 2025-12-05T09:03:07+08:00 | 2040.4101589841016 |
| 2025-12-05T09:03:18+08:00 | 2054.931606839316 |
| 2025-12-05T09:05:15+08:00 | 2126.1461853814617 |
| 2025-12-05T09:05:19+08:00 | 2282.920507949205 |
| 2025-12-05T10:10:10+08:00 | 2623.8864113588643 |
| 2025-12-05T10:10:18+08:00 | 2623.889811018898 |
| 2025-12-05T10:10:27+08:00 | 2653.8868113188682 |
| 2025-12-05T10:10:31+08:00 | 2653.894810518948 |
| 2025-12-05T10:10:39+08:00 | 2654.185781421858 |
| 2025-12-05T10:10:47+08:00 | 2678.7413258674133 |
| 2025-12-05T10:10:54+08:00 | 2678.7445255474454 |
| 2025-12-05T10:11:03+08:00 | 2683.5882411758826 |
| 2025-12-05T10:39:01+08:00 | 2683.5883411658833 |
| 2025-12-05T10:39:05+08:00 | 2683.6122387761225 |
| 2025-12-05T11:07:23+08:00 | 2691.77 |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|
| Time | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|
Using the actual oversubscription ratio 3526.34x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.452, Pool B α=0.552) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier
| Lots | Subscription Amount (HKD) | Actual Expected Lots | Predicted Expected Lots | Error |
|---|
Bao Pharma-B Allotment Prediction MatrixRows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates guaranteed allotment (≥1 lot)
Mechanism B
Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).
α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].
The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").
Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier
Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.
This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Bao Pharma-B (02659): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 10,897 allotment-tier records across 356 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation).
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.
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