Yunji 02670Expected Lots
Yunji (02670) Expected Lots
| Rank | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
821.5100M |
| 2 |  辉立 |
268.0100M |
| 3 |  老虎 |
123.1100M |
| 4 |  华泰 |
59.0100M |
| 5 |  华盛 |
51.5100M |
| 7 |  耀才 |
22.6100M |
| 8 |  招银 |
18.0100M |
| 9 |  信诚 |
10.0100M |
| 10 |  长桥 |
8.0100M |
| 11 |  盈立 |
7.3100M |
| 12 | 卓锐证券 | 7.2100M |
| 13 |  TradeGo |
4.1100M |
| 14 | 第一上海 | 1.9100M |
| 15 |  艾德 |
1.1100M |
| 16 |  Funderstone |
841110K |
| 17 |  盈宝 |
597310K |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|---|
| 2025-10-08T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2025-10-08T10:08:18+08:00 | 0.08762886597938144 |
| 2025-10-08T10:08:32+08:00 | 0.17070952092177077 |
| 2025-10-08T10:08:41+08:00 | 3.1725288053365674 |
| 2025-10-08T11:15:42+08:00 | 3.506064281382656 |
| 2025-10-08T11:15:59+08:00 | 5.65979381443299 |
| 2025-10-08T11:16:14+08:00 | 6.61340206185567 |
| 2025-10-08T11:16:22+08:00 | 22.16828380836871 |
| 2025-10-08T12:07:48+08:00 | 24.928138265615523 |
| 2025-10-08T12:07:59+08:00 | 25.783505154639176 |
| 2025-10-08T12:08:06+08:00 | 41.27774408732565 |
| 2025-10-08T13:40:10+08:00 | 42.391752577319586 |
| 2025-10-08T13:40:23+08:00 | 42.911158277744086 |
| 2025-10-08T13:40:31+08:00 | 52.31079442086113 |
| 2025-10-08T14:10:11+08:00 | 55.04305639781686 |
| 2025-10-08T14:10:34+08:00 | 55.25591267434809 |
| 2025-10-08T14:10:42+08:00 | 64.17040630685264 |
| 2025-10-08T14:12:17+08:00 | 65.64463311097634 |
| 2025-10-08T15:10:22+08:00 | 67.44057004244996 |
| 2025-10-08T15:10:34+08:00 | 67.96513038204972 |
| 2025-10-08T15:10:44+08:00 | 73.45330503335354 |
| 2025-10-08T16:07:59+08:00 | 74.09005457853245 |
| 2025-10-08T16:08:02+08:00 | 74.69648271679806 |
| 2025-10-08T16:08:16+08:00 | 90.44693753790176 |
| 2025-10-08T16:08:27+08:00 | 91.44238932686477 |
| 2025-10-08T16:08:34+08:00 | 98.810491206792 |
| 2025-10-08T17:23:59+08:00 | 117.41297756215889 |
| 2025-10-08T17:24:13+08:00 | 118.25469981807156 |
| 2025-10-08T17:24:20+08:00 | 248.57610673135233 |
| 2025-10-08T17:30:32+08:00 | 263.7368101879927 |
| 2025-10-08T18:17:59+08:00 | 282.3271679805943 |
| 2025-10-08T18:19:57+08:00 | 288.7307459066101 |
| 2025-10-08T18:20:26+08:00 | 289.80897513644635 |
| 2025-10-08T18:20:40+08:00 | 337.5348696179503 |
| 2025-10-08T20:03:03+08:00 | 341.6704063068526 |
| 2025-10-08T20:03:10+08:00 | 372.3859915100061 |
| 2025-10-08T20:04:06+08:00 | 380.57155852031536 |
| 2025-10-08T20:05:25+08:00 | 408.01243177683443 |
| 2025-10-08T22:17:12+08:00 | 414.47938144329896 |
| 2025-10-08T22:17:23+08:00 | 447.31746513038206 |
| 2025-10-08T22:17:56+08:00 | 453.78502122498486 |
| 2025-10-08T22:18:12+08:00 | 487.16889023650697 |
| 2025-10-09T08:53:02+08:00 | 491.46422073984235 |
| 2025-10-09T08:53:12+08:00 | 491.46422073984235 |
| 2025-10-09T08:54:04+08:00 | 501.29805942995756 |
| 2025-10-09T08:54:18+08:00 | 616.3374772589448 |
| 2025-10-09T09:40:48+08:00 | 640.5946027895694 |
| 2025-10-09T09:40:54+08:00 | 645.6309884778653 |
| 2025-10-09T09:41:12+08:00 | 668.0991510006064 |
| 2025-10-09T09:52:30+08:00 | 688.3417222559127 |
| 2025-10-09T10:10:27+08:00 | 712.9930260764099 |
| 2025-10-09T10:10:55+08:00 | 716.0533656761673 |
| 2025-10-09T10:11:12+08:00 | 720.2947240751971 |
| 2025-10-09T11:54:12+08:00 | 747.3414190418436 |
| 2025-10-09T11:54:55+08:00 | 751.6294724075198 |
| 2025-10-09T11:55:24+08:00 | 754.6334141904184 |
| 2025-10-09T12:09:33+08:00 | 786.0767131594906 |
| 2025-10-09T12:10:05+08:00 | 789.1825348696179 |
| 2025-10-09T13:44:24+08:00 | 789.1770770163736 |
| 2025-10-09T13:44:34+08:00 | 794.3714372346877 |
| 2025-10-09T13:44:58+08:00 | 823.3587022437841 |
| 2025-10-09T13:45:34+08:00 | 829.4229836264402 |
| 2025-10-09T14:03:10+08:00 | 844.0788356579745 |
| 2025-10-09T14:04:21+08:00 | 849.833232261977 |
| 2025-10-09T14:05:16+08:00 | 873.8174651303821 |
| 2025-10-09T15:04:39+08:00 | 878.637052759248 |
| 2025-10-09T16:03:37+08:00 | 906.6237113402062 |
| 2025-10-09T16:04:21+08:00 | 912.4126743480897 |
| 2025-10-09T16:05:35+08:00 | 943.1585809581564 |
| 2025-10-09T17:07:14+08:00 | 959.4293511218921 |
| 2025-10-09T17:07:33+08:00 | 1029.3505154639174 |
| 2025-10-09T17:07:48+08:00 | 1029.3532443905397 |
| 2025-10-09T18:02:42+08:00 | 1226.4423893268647 |
| 2025-10-09T18:03:43+08:00 | 1240.8268647665252 |
| 2025-10-09T18:04:55+08:00 | 1258.1352334748333 |
| 2025-10-09T18:06:18+08:00 | 1314.2298362644026 |
| 2025-10-09T19:58:50+08:00 | 1382.7562158884173 |
| 2025-10-09T20:00:49+08:00 | 1388.7243784111583 |
| 2025-10-09T20:01:10+08:00 | 1433.7819890842934 |
| 2025-10-09T20:01:59+08:00 | 1480.1130988477864 |
| 2025-10-09T20:11:59+08:00 | 1484.17828987265 |
| 2025-10-09T20:12:23+08:00 | 1520.3820497271074 |
| 2025-10-09T21:46:31+08:00 | 1524.7504548211036 |
| 2025-10-09T21:46:51+08:00 | 1561.833535476046 |
| 2025-10-09T22:11:10+08:00 | 1567.2140691328077 |
| 2025-10-09T22:11:34+08:00 | 1608.057004244997 |
| 2025-10-10T07:19:50+08:00 | 1614.3869011522136 |
| 2025-10-10T07:20:40+08:00 | 1614.3896300788356 |
| 2025-10-10T07:20:48+08:00 | 1614.3896300788356 |
| 2025-10-10T08:25:40+08:00 | 1644.7110369921165 |
| 2025-10-10T08:26:53+08:00 | 1663.6952698605214 |
| 2025-10-10T08:27:19+08:00 | 1847.9584596725288 |
| 2025-10-10T09:03:18+08:00 | 1873.4857489387507 |
| 2025-10-10T09:06:08+08:00 | 1877.372043662826 |
| 2025-10-10T09:06:29+08:00 | 1907.7540933899334 |
| 2025-10-10T10:13:56+08:00 | 1911.0827774408733 |
| 2025-10-10T10:14:11+08:00 | 1914.7255912674348 |
| 2025-10-10T10:14:21+08:00 | 1951.6267434808974 |
| 2025-10-10T10:14:46+08:00 | 1981.9481503941784 |
| 2025-10-10T11:18:40+08:00 | 1988.420254699818 |
| 2025-10-10T11:18:57+08:00 | 1994.8717404487568 |
| 2025-10-10T11:19:07+08:00 | 2022.858399029715 |
| 2025-10-10T12:09:56+08:00 | 2026.0715585203154 |
| 2025-10-10T12:10:11+08:00 | 2028.0103092783504 |
| 2025-10-10T12:10:36+08:00 | 2052.146149181322 |
| 2025-10-10T13:44:04+08:00 | 2054.746513038205 |
| 2025-10-10T13:44:21+08:00 | 2054.8420254699818 |
| 2025-10-10T13:44:56+08:00 | 2074.6722255912673 |
| 2025-10-10T14:04:04+08:00 | 2075.1315949060036 |
| 2025-10-10T14:05:08+08:00 | 2085.4378411158277 |
| 2025-10-10T14:05:36+08:00 | 2110.180109157065 |
| 2025-10-10T15:08:01+08:00 | 2115.967556094603 |
| 2025-10-10T15:08:09+08:00 | 2141.5285021224986 |
| 2025-10-10T16:35:31+08:00 | 2166.1798059429957 |
| 2025-10-10T16:35:50+08:00 | 2169.600363856883 |
| 2025-10-10T17:07:47+08:00 | 2171.8298969072166 |
| 2025-10-10T17:08:21+08:00 | 2194.8438447543967 |
| 2025-10-10T17:43:32+08:00 | 2595.086416009703 |
| 2025-10-10T18:08:47+08:00 | 2603.531837477259 |
| 2025-10-10T18:10:01+08:00 | 2606.602486355367 |
| 2025-10-10T18:10:20+08:00 | 2624.9469375379017 |
| 2025-10-10T20:14:59+08:00 | 2639.1979987871437 |
| 2025-10-10T20:15:17+08:00 | 2641.133110976349 |
| 2025-10-10T20:15:35+08:00 | 2657.749241964827 |
| 2025-10-10T20:16:07+08:00 | 2660.118556701031 |
| 2025-10-10T20:17:08+08:00 | 2672.7322619769557 |
| 2025-10-10T22:05:13+08:00 | 2676.161309884779 |
| 2025-10-10T22:05:25+08:00 | 2689.714978775015 |
| 2025-10-10T22:06:20+08:00 | 2693.026986052153 |
| 2025-10-10T22:06:37+08:00 | 2708.915403274712 |
| 2025-10-11T10:34:09+08:00 | 2708.764099454215 |
| 2025-10-11T10:36:20+08:00 | 2707.856276531231 |
| 2025-10-11T10:36:38+08:00 | 2735.6610066707094 |
| 2025-10-11T10:37:17+08:00 | 2737.682534869618 |
| 2025-10-11T10:37:34+08:00 | 2737.712856276531 |
| 2025-10-11T10:37:44+08:00 | 2744.0803517283202 |
| 2025-10-11T10:38:17+08:00 | 2745.974833232262 |
| 2025-10-11T10:38:32+08:00 | 2751.372043662826 |
| 2025-10-11T12:20:59+08:00 | 2752.214675560946 |
| 2025-10-11T12:21:14+08:00 | 2759.431170406307 |
| 2025-10-11T12:21:29+08:00 | 2759.6200727713767 |
| 2025-10-11T12:21:45+08:00 | 2764.7747119466344 |
| 2025-10-11T14:39:50+08:00 | 2764.6018799272288 |
| 2025-10-11T14:40:07+08:00 | 2772.728016979988 |
| 2025-10-11T14:40:32+08:00 | 2774.7816858702245 |
| 2025-10-11T14:40:47+08:00 | 2780.330503335355 |
| 2025-10-11T16:26:05+08:00 | 2782.2067919951487 |
| 2025-10-11T16:26:24+08:00 | 2786.755003032141 |
| 2025-10-11T16:26:43+08:00 | 2788.102789569436 |
| 2025-10-11T16:27:05+08:00 | 2794.5309278350514 |
| 2025-10-11T18:14:37+08:00 | 2795.330806549424 |
| 2025-10-11T18:14:57+08:00 | 2799.757731958763 |
| 2025-10-11T18:15:13+08:00 | 2804.6091570648878 |
| 2025-10-11T18:15:18+08:00 | 2805.500303214069 |
| 2025-10-11T18:15:39+08:00 | 2810.382049727107 |
| 2025-10-11T19:10:53+08:00 | 2812.351728320194 |
| 2025-10-11T19:11:09+08:00 | 2816.899939357186 |
| 2025-10-11T20:31:27+08:00 | 2817.472710733778 |
| 2025-10-11T20:31:43+08:00 | 2821.778350515464 |
| 2025-10-11T21:58:16+08:00 | 2822.949666464524 |
| 2025-10-11T21:59:05+08:00 | 2825.254093389933 |
| 2025-10-11T22:05:04+08:00 | 2826.5106124924196 |
| 2025-10-11T22:05:23+08:00 | 2831.4833232261976 |
| 2025-10-12T13:26:26+08:00 | 2831.5691328077623 |
| 2025-10-12T13:26:31+08:00 | 2834.18526379624 |
| 2025-10-12T13:26:35+08:00 | 2834.529108550637 |
| 2025-10-12T13:26:39+08:00 | 2835.3981200727712 |
| 2025-10-12T13:26:43+08:00 | 2835.8365676167373 |
| 2025-10-12T13:26:47+08:00 | 2838.324135839903 |
| 2025-10-12T13:26:51+08:00 | 2839.144026682838 |
| 2025-10-12T13:28:58+08:00 | 2863.00697392359 |
| 2025-10-12T13:29:02+08:00 | 2873.1040024257127 |
| 2025-10-12T13:29:06+08:00 | 2880.8662825955125 |
| 2025-10-12T13:29:10+08:00 | 2892.691631291692 |
| 2025-10-12T13:29:14+08:00 | 2908.6406913280775 |
| 2025-10-12T13:29:18+08:00 | 2937.4763493026076 |
| 2025-10-12T17:04:26+08:00 | 2938.762583383869 |
| 2025-10-12T17:04:37+08:00 | 2952.346573681019 |
| 2025-10-12T17:04:52+08:00 | 2954.3041237113403 |
| 2025-10-12T17:05:03+08:00 | 2971.76925409339 |
| 2025-10-12T17:05:22+08:00 | 2974.8201940570043 |
| 2025-10-12T17:05:32+08:00 | 2998.046391752577 |
| 2025-10-12T17:05:49+08:00 | 3000.863250454821 |
| 2025-10-12T17:06:00+08:00 | 3023.7862340812612 |
| 2025-10-12T19:20:50+08:00 | 3051.3180715585204 |
| 2025-10-12T19:21:01+08:00 | 3076.6364463311097 |
| 2025-10-12T19:21:57+08:00 | 3079.029108550637 |
| 2025-10-12T19:22:08+08:00 | 3080.637355973317 |
| 2025-10-12T22:08:03+08:00 | 3083.0327471194664 |
| 2025-10-12T22:08:13+08:00 | 3089.135233474833 |
| 2025-10-12T22:08:21+08:00 | 3094.934505761067 |
| 2025-10-12T22:08:49+08:00 | 3126.2868405093996 |
| 2025-10-12T22:08:58+08:00 | 3163.491206791995 |
| 2025-10-12T22:09:07+08:00 | 3206.032140691328 |
| 2025-10-13T08:39:44+08:00 | 3211.267131594906 |
| 2025-10-13T08:40:35+08:00 | 3211.267131594906 |
| 2025-10-13T08:40:57+08:00 | 3253.356276531231 |
| 2025-10-13T08:41:11+08:00 | 3626.703759854457 |
| 2025-10-13T09:09:38+08:00 | 3647.899332929048 |
| 2025-10-13T09:10:03+08:00 | 3846.595512431777 |
| 2025-10-13T09:50:05+08:00 | 3868.7301394784718 |
| 2025-10-13T09:50:46+08:00 | 4044.5942995755004 |
| 2025-10-13T09:50:49+08:00 | 4068.851425106125 |
| 2025-10-13T09:52:02+08:00 | 4131.219830200122 |
| 2025-10-13T09:54:33+08:00 | 4185.798362644026 |
| 2025-10-13T10:13:03+08:00 | 4189.553365676167 |
| 2025-10-13T20:31:47+08:00 | 4259.09 |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|
| Time | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|
Using the actual oversubscription ratio 5657.2x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.496, Pool B α=0.596) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier
| Lots | Subscription Amount (HKD) | Actual Expected Lots | Predicted Expected Lots | Error |
|---|
Yunji Allotment Prediction MatrixRows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates guaranteed allotment (≥1 lot)
18C
HKEX Listing Rule Chapter 18C for specialist technology companies. Mechanisms A and B do not apply. Initial allocation 5%, with clawback: 10x to below 50x → 10%, 50x or above → 20%. At least 50% of total offering shares must be taken up by independent pricing investors in the placing tranche.
α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].
The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").
Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier
Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.
This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Yunji (02670): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 10,897 allotment-tier records across 356 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation).
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.
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