Margin dynamics Margin multiple313.81567459085926x Margin funds1516.8100M
Rank Broker Margin funds
1 富途证券富途 900.7100M
2 辉立证券辉立 365.0100M
3 老虎国际老虎 147.2100M
4 华泰国际华泰 55.1100M
5 华盛证券华盛 18.1100M
6 TradeGo MarketsTradeGo 13.5100M
7 长桥证券长桥 7.1100M
8 盈立证券盈立 5.2100M
9 信诚证券信诚 5.0100M
Margin multiple
TimeMultiple
2026-01-29T06:00:00+08:000
2026-01-29T10:30:48+08:000.0002896571700494486
2026-01-29T10:30:54+08:000.02913123538783026
2026-01-29T10:31:00+08:000.058821095317898746
2026-01-29T10:31:08+08:000.0670970144621687
2026-01-29T11:08:03+08:000.0697453085883351
2026-01-29T11:09:07+08:000.09374547410671798
2026-01-29T11:11:17+08:000.16208387644052719
2026-01-29T11:11:32+08:000.9317443568576335
2026-01-29T12:10:03+08:000.942089255787971
2026-01-29T12:10:24+08:000.9446754805205553
2026-01-29T12:10:51+08:000.9951792770984628
2026-01-29T12:11:08+08:001.1011731115387002
2026-01-29T12:11:20+08:001.543934785757143
2026-01-29T13:41:30+08:001.545217553224505
2026-01-29T13:42:38+08:001.6086938530610555
2026-01-29T13:43:04+08:001.7209360064552168
2026-01-29T13:43:20+08:002.703701404837275
2026-01-29T14:17:29+08:002.71245318933234
2026-01-29T14:18:22+08:002.719860136966462
2026-01-29T14:18:44+08:002.7990399933792647
2026-01-29T14:18:57+08:003.0514555272794985
2026-01-29T15:10:57+08:003.068607369705998
2026-01-29T15:12:02+08:003.11987668880475
2026-01-29T15:12:20+08:003.138083710922144
2026-01-29T15:12:43+08:003.3801543458920404
2026-01-29T15:14:48+08:003.4215339416133905
2026-01-29T16:25:31+08:003.4307202118635303
2026-01-29T16:27:03+08:003.5003620714625616
2026-01-29T16:27:50+08:003.6894047545155484
2026-01-29T16:28:18+08:003.6895288933027124
2026-01-29T16:28:32+08:004.380568141849254
2026-01-29T16:32:36+08:004.437403016572528
2026-01-29T17:16:52+08:004.437589224753274
2026-01-29T17:17:08+08:004.458279022613949
2026-01-29T17:17:31+08:004.4611135249208616
2026-01-29T17:18:46+08:004.48865164587342
2026-01-29T17:19:00+08:004.48867233567128
2026-01-29T17:19:16+08:004.749363788715784
2026-01-29T17:45:56+08:005.74247408602818
2026-01-29T18:00:15+08:005.751825874661205
2026-01-29T18:04:53+08:006.3549955516934595
2026-01-29T18:05:44+08:006.371299112407672
2026-01-29T18:06:10+08:006.3700370347381705
2026-01-29T18:06:33+08:006.314174580514348
2026-01-29T19:47:02+08:006.3216229077441914
2026-01-29T19:47:25+08:006.3525334657480395
2026-01-29T19:47:48+08:006.353588645438934
2026-01-29T19:48:06+08:006.535658866612873
2026-01-29T19:48:15+08:006.536196801357251
2026-01-29T20:03:27+08:006.552334843688577
2026-01-29T20:03:47+08:006.5806384871619805
2026-01-29T20:13:51+08:006.686156456251423
2026-01-29T21:35:40+08:006.705687625431899
2026-01-29T21:35:58+08:006.72194980655039
2026-01-29T21:36:18+08:006.815053896923427
2026-01-29T22:06:06+08:006.855750729315375
2026-01-29T22:06:30+08:006.885916454596239
2026-01-29T22:06:49+08:007.150745867212877
2026-01-30T08:54:00+08:007.188049572755674
2026-01-30T08:54:17+08:007.1804771067386675
2026-01-30T08:54:40+08:007.1804771067386675
2026-01-30T08:54:56+08:007.338981648149297
2026-01-30T08:55:02+08:007.42182359878344
2026-01-30T08:55:10+08:008.276312250429314
2026-01-30T09:01:02+08:008.316864254236236
2026-01-30T09:04:23+08:008.339726480872281
2026-01-30T09:04:32+08:008.350361036972668
2026-01-30T09:08:12+08:008.437258187987503
2026-01-30T10:12:41+08:008.458879026751909
2026-01-30T10:12:46+08:008.463803198642749
2026-01-30T10:12:58+08:008.464175615004242
2026-01-30T10:13:05+08:008.461258353505887
2026-01-30T10:13:12+08:008.478265367347362
2026-01-30T10:13:17+08:008.51964496306871
2026-01-30T10:13:26+08:008.550679659859723
2026-01-30T11:07:17+08:008.644652721742908
2026-01-30T11:08:20+08:008.915937351292078
2026-01-30T11:09:01+08:008.910744212029048
2026-01-30T11:09:16+08:009.08246953427265
2026-01-30T11:11:39+08:009.245918937371982
2026-01-30T11:30:57+08:009.26393975130863
2026-01-30T12:14:31+08:009.286284732998158
2026-01-30T12:15:29+08:009.311546976186042
2026-01-30T12:15:43+08:009.291208904888999
2026-01-30T12:15:56+08:009.580866074938449
2026-01-30T12:41:10+08:009.589866137007842
2026-01-30T13:42:51+08:009.604390375106036
2026-01-30T13:43:18+08:009.593590300622763
2026-01-30T13:43:37+08:009.615997351705873
2026-01-30T13:44:27+08:009.675997765501831
2026-01-30T13:45:08+08:009.70812902157946
2026-01-30T13:49:54+08:009.713529058821095
2026-01-30T14:03:16+08:009.725467072186705
2026-01-30T14:04:13+08:009.781805391761322
2026-01-30T14:05:33+08:009.82370223242919
2026-01-30T14:06:01+08:009.962323878095711
2026-01-30T14:08:16+08:0010.011420768419093
2026-01-30T15:10:10+08:0010.05269691515114
2026-01-30T15:10:43+08:0010.098979992965468
2026-01-30T15:12:08+08:0010.111538700266898
2026-01-30T15:12:39+08:0011.218442885813005
2026-01-30T15:48:01+08:0011.239132683673681
2026-01-30T15:54:45+08:0011.611549045165829
2026-01-30T16:06:42+08:0011.627004324167753
2026-01-30T16:07:19+08:0011.670349450685867
2026-01-30T16:08:24+08:0011.680508141435459
2026-01-30T16:09:30+08:0011.92671673597749
2026-01-30T17:10:57+08:0011.93008917302878
2026-01-30T17:11:26+08:0011.99478617093911
2026-01-30T17:12:45+08:0011.992551672770157
2026-01-30T17:13:22+08:0012.770488072331533
2026-01-30T18:09:36+08:0012.765625969834275
2026-01-30T18:11:09+08:0014.255291415802867
2026-01-30T18:11:14+08:0015.703577266050111
2026-01-30T18:12:13+08:0015.711129042269256
2026-01-30T18:13:01+08:0015.71671528769164
2026-01-30T18:13:28+08:0015.799039993379266
2026-01-30T18:15:04+08:0015.95214449754826
2026-01-30T18:18:37+08:0015.962944572031532
2026-01-30T18:21:53+08:0016.511782839881654
2026-01-30T19:58:25+08:0016.514886309560755
2026-01-30T19:59:49+08:0016.507148325160863
2026-01-30T20:00:03+08:0016.560569383237127
2026-01-30T20:00:32+08:0016.659880412968366
2026-01-30T20:04:09+08:0016.77274326029835
2026-01-30T20:04:23+08:0016.779177787433017
2026-01-30T20:05:28+08:0016.77710880764695
2026-01-30T21:21:44+08:0016.78304677963296
2026-01-30T21:21:58+08:0016.787039910620074
2026-01-30T21:22:21+08:0017.03738646473424
2026-01-30T21:22:35+08:0017.037572672914987
2026-01-30T22:03:46+08:0017.058345229967102
2026-01-30T22:03:55+08:0017.06221422216705
2026-01-30T22:05:50+08:0017.405664866654252
2026-01-31T10:30:59+08:0017.484617135290588
2026-01-31T10:31:14+08:0017.484803343471334
2026-01-31T10:31:28+08:0017.484803343471334
2026-01-31T10:31:45+08:0017.585935075414312
2026-01-31T10:31:54+08:0019.29284339891999
2026-01-31T10:32:04+08:0019.301533114021478
2026-01-31T10:32:32+08:0019.360312829743652
2026-01-31T10:32:40+08:0019.391347526534666
2026-01-31T10:32:48+08:0019.393809612480087
2026-01-31T10:33:14+08:0019.420644280305382
2026-01-31T10:33:24+08:0019.44365133552645
2026-01-31T10:33:34+08:0019.5677901226905
2026-01-31T11:08:44+08:0019.56905220036
2026-01-31T11:09:29+08:0019.57391430285726
2026-01-31T11:09:53+08:0019.601638631990564
2026-01-31T11:12:35+08:0019.75474313615956
2026-01-31T13:32:09+08:0019.75660521796702
2026-01-31T13:33:56+08:0019.80441934082304
2026-01-31T13:35:11+08:0019.81205387623363
2026-01-31T13:35:49+08:0019.865847350671384
2026-01-31T13:36:26+08:0019.92791674425341
2026-01-31T16:26:36+08:0019.93871681873668
2026-01-31T16:28:04+08:0019.941799598617923
2026-01-31T16:30:21+08:0019.955765212173876
2026-01-31T16:31:24+08:0020.012724225684316
2026-01-31T16:33:39+08:0020.366519769101856
2026-01-31T16:33:57+08:0020.654107959365238
2026-01-31T18:30:48+08:0020.65479072269464
2026-01-31T18:33:09+08:0020.662632156083834
2026-01-31T18:34:50+08:0020.67773570852213
2026-01-31T18:35:27+08:0020.909461444561686
2026-01-31T18:35:50+08:0021.05429002958641
2026-01-31T20:25:21+08:0021.063972854985206
2026-01-31T20:27:47+08:0021.069103924854655
2026-01-31T20:29:06+08:0021.081972979123993
2026-01-31T20:29:40+08:0021.156456251422423
2026-01-31T20:30:00+08:0021.324043614093892
2026-01-31T21:25:37+08:0021.3328781577804
2026-01-31T21:26:02+08:0021.3378230194691
2026-01-31T21:26:11+08:0021.37920261519045
2026-02-01T10:25:18+08:0021.37957503155194
2026-02-01T10:26:08+08:0021.525210518693232
2026-02-01T10:30:54+08:0021.532265739763723
2026-02-01T10:31:40+08:0021.867171497734468
2026-02-01T10:34:40+08:0023.363043883061263
2026-02-01T10:35:03+08:0023.55339002337947
2026-02-01T13:27:28+08:0023.571390147518258
2026-02-01T13:27:42+08:0023.571224629135372
2026-02-01T13:28:22+08:0023.57141083731612
2026-02-01T13:28:31+08:0023.5745763763888
2026-02-01T13:28:39+08:0023.57943847888606
2026-02-01T13:30:06+08:0023.589183373678438
2026-02-01T13:30:27+08:0023.590279932965053
2026-02-01T13:31:01+08:0023.60089379926758
2026-02-01T13:32:06+08:0023.753377609500756
2026-02-01T13:32:29+08:0023.78207435913351
2026-02-01T13:32:54+08:0023.810605590383382
2026-02-01T13:36:45+08:0023.889226822253946
2026-02-01T13:37:04+08:0024.08577990193036
2026-02-01T13:37:24+08:0024.228539507169014
2026-02-01T16:31:59+08:0024.234105062793535
2026-02-01T16:38:59+08:0024.42945813419403
2026-02-01T16:39:41+08:0024.465458382471603
2026-02-01T16:40:19+08:0024.46783770922558
2026-02-01T16:41:06+08:0024.877495706866945
2026-02-01T16:41:29+08:0025.330602280015725
2026-02-01T19:41:15+08:0025.330622969813586
2026-02-01T19:41:26+08:0025.330809177994333
2026-02-01T19:43:17+08:0025.335650590693728
2026-02-01T19:45:09+08:0025.358843854095547
2026-02-01T19:46:23+08:0025.44687894399272
2026-02-01T19:46:58+08:0025.935158173504647
2026-02-01T19:47:20+08:0026.26826391906151
2026-02-01T21:32:48+08:0026.268450127242257
2026-02-01T21:35:46+08:0026.322057393499264
2026-02-01T21:36:35+08:0026.327147083772992
2026-02-01T21:36:57+08:0026.39358202470362
2026-02-01T21:37:20+08:0026.745308588335092
2026-02-01T21:37:37+08:0027.152897606190386
2026-02-02T08:50:46+08:0027.167587362671465
2026-02-02T08:56:05+08:0027.24035338174746
2026-02-02T08:57:49+08:0028.024951896219974
2026-02-02T08:58:33+08:0028.024951896219974
2026-02-02T08:59:23+08:0028.28357436947841
2026-02-02T08:59:41+08:0030.3463472161877
2026-02-02T09:00:05+08:0030.35406451078973
2026-02-02T09:06:02+08:0031.444416858047298
2026-02-02T09:08:04+08:0031.469637721639458
2026-02-02T09:08:46+08:0031.499327581569528
2026-02-02T09:09:14+08:0031.49914137338878
2026-02-02T09:09:43+08:0032.041214077338466
2026-02-02T10:13:02+08:0032.165352864502516
2026-02-02T10:13:31+08:0032.16700804833137
2026-02-02T10:13:40+08:0032.1778288126125
2026-02-02T10:13:43+08:0032.188670266691496
2026-02-02T10:14:30+08:0032.57666604597273
2026-02-02T10:15:58+08:0032.69188753025883
2026-02-02T10:16:22+08:0032.69492893054435
2026-02-02T10:17:40+08:0033.88666128731922
2026-02-02T10:18:00+08:0033.88755094862723
2026-02-02T11:11:19+08:0033.92179256408665
2026-02-02T11:11:26+08:0033.92185463348023
2026-02-02T11:11:33+08:0033.92526845012724
2026-02-02T11:12:14+08:0034.005793143400986
2026-02-02T11:14:32+08:0034.90462003186229
2026-02-02T11:15:26+08:0034.96896530320899
2026-02-02T11:15:49+08:0037.1889806136594
2026-02-02T12:25:20+08:0037.60362485258519
2026-02-02T12:25:47+08:0037.68638404402789
2026-02-02T12:26:07+08:0037.70192208222126
2026-02-02T12:30:56+08:0037.874371547389984
2026-02-02T12:31:21+08:0037.927730536072666
2026-02-02T12:31:42+08:0039.05118655990731
2026-02-02T12:32:29+08:0040.273663956303146
2026-02-02T13:43:05+08:0040.45308588335092
2026-02-02T13:43:31+08:0040.46475492934434
2026-02-02T13:45:06+08:0040.62187325429831
2026-02-02T13:45:26+08:0040.68007365568038
2026-02-02T13:45:50+08:0041.53663128711233
2026-02-02T13:52:12+08:0041.65489417168394
2026-02-02T14:08:36+08:0041.68454265201829
2026-02-02T14:10:00+08:0041.706266939772
2026-02-02T14:10:27+08:0041.78908820060828
2026-02-02T14:10:47+08:0041.81745391347526
2026-02-02T14:11:08+08:0042.845736867150805
2026-02-02T14:29:33+08:0042.86032317464258
2026-02-02T15:07:09+08:0042.93373057745226
2026-02-02T15:08:08+08:0042.95475141207871
2026-02-02T15:09:29+08:0043.334947137566466
2026-02-02T15:09:51+08:0043.372685328864335
2026-02-02T15:10:05+08:0043.37647156187284
2026-02-02T15:10:30+08:0043.49821033248505
2026-02-02T15:12:35+08:0044.52235532658846
2026-02-02T16:19:32+08:0044.53497610328347
2026-02-02T16:19:36+08:0044.65226656735564
2026-02-02T16:19:40+08:0044.65408726956738
2026-02-02T16:19:44+08:0044.65425278795026
2026-02-02T16:20:40+08:0044.69072890157863
2026-02-02T16:21:53+08:0046.22591190284071
2026-02-02T16:23:00+08:0046.846605838660956
2026-02-02T17:17:27+08:0046.85066103904165
2026-02-02T17:17:31+08:0046.8699439306478
2026-02-02T17:17:35+08:0046.892847536879565
2026-02-02T17:17:38+08:0046.895288933027125
2026-02-02T17:19:37+08:0047.7435706453148
2026-02-02T17:21:34+08:0049.869881861254214
2026-02-02T17:22:24+08:0061.31754701756564
2026-02-02T17:25:12+08:0061.967620466348045
2026-02-02T17:33:07+08:0061.97140669935655
2026-02-02T17:56:34+08:0075.00597935158173
2026-02-02T18:14:16+08:0077.48875509486273
2026-02-02T18:14:58+08:0077.49092752363809
2026-02-02T18:15:41+08:0080.00155173483955
2026-02-02T18:15:56+08:0089.7485155070035
2026-02-02T18:23:19+08:0091.85018517369085
2026-02-02T18:23:39+08:0091.8503713818716
2026-02-02T18:23:44+08:0092.26416733908509
2026-02-02T20:49:35+08:0092.2656983841268
2026-02-02T20:53:10+08:0094.801750356899
2026-02-02T20:53:40+08:00102.0576624666377
2026-02-02T20:54:09+08:00109.82461258353506
2026-02-02T21:40:08+08:00110.99954482444707
2026-02-02T21:40:18+08:00118.61752839674756
2026-02-03T07:51:05+08:00118.63157676949496
2026-02-03T07:52:59+08:00131.8420127035359
2026-02-03T07:53:19+08:00134.3768646680322
2026-02-03T07:53:23+08:00137.50969317029774
2026-02-03T07:55:16+08:00137.50969317029774
2026-02-03T09:12:53+08:00137.5120104276581
2026-02-03T09:13:14+08:00137.5125483624025
2026-02-03T09:13:53+08:00145.89646825150518
2026-02-03T09:14:11+08:00147.78526058800406
2026-02-03T09:18:29+08:00201.16907702811744
2026-02-03T09:18:52+08:00216.5353898992407
2026-02-03T09:27:56+08:00222.67140463037677
2026-02-03T09:28:30+08:00224.84383340574763
2026-02-03T09:59:20+08:00224.8454678997786
2026-02-03T09:59:28+08:00224.8454885895765
2026-02-03T10:02:34+08:00224.84764032855398
2026-02-03T10:07:38+08:00225.85488175780523
2026-02-03T10:07:54+08:00257.7461361802495
2026-02-03T10:52:01+08:00313.8154883826785
2026-02-03T10:52:43+08:00313.81567459085926
TradeGo forecast multiple
TimeMultiple
Broker margin funds trend
TimeBrokerMargin funds
Prediction Model 1-Lot Expected Lots— Lots for expected 1-lot allotment—
Multiple derivation
Recent first-day return
+4.6%
→
Participants
15,563
→
Avg lots
30.6
→
Oversubscription
9x
9x = 15,563 × 30.6 ÷ 50,452 A+H secondary · participants ×0.44 H-share discount 39.9% margin-weighted 100% → 313.8x
1x2068.0x
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.56
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.66
This model does not support allocation strategy adjustment

Actual vs Predicted Comparison

Using the actual oversubscription ratio 446.39x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.562, Pool B α=0.662) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier

Lots Subscription Amount (HKD) Actual Expected Lots Predicted Expected Lots Error

LogoHans CNC Allotment Prediction Matrix

Rows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates expected ≥1 lot. Non-preset multiples are interpolated from the nearest grid points.

Offering Mechanism

Mechanism B

Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).

Allocation Strategy Coefficient α

α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].

  • α → 0: Per-capita allocation — regardless of lots subscribed, every allottee receives the same number of shares. More favorable to retail (small) applications.
  • α → 1: Proportional allocation — allotted shares are proportional to lots subscribed. More favorable to large applications.
  • Historical actual α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0. α varies widely across IPOs, reflecting each issuer's allocation strategy.
Allotment Rate Definition

The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").

Expected Allotment Lots

Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier

Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.

About this page

This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Hans CNC (03200): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 22087 allotment-tier records across 592 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation). You can override the oversubscription multiple and the allocation-method α right on the page, replacing cibo's defaults to see expected lots under your own scenario. How allotment rates and clawback work is explained in How Hong Kong IPO Allotment Rates Work.
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.

Cibo — HK IPO Allotment Forecasts, Allottee Profiling & Stock Connect