Margin dynamics Margin multiple1161.33x Margin funds2644.8100M TradeGo forecast multiple1393.59x
Rank Broker Margin funds
1 富途证券富途 1646.2100M
2 辉立证券辉立 547.0100M
3 老虎国际老虎 249.6100M
4 华泰国际华泰 108.5100M
5 华盛证券华盛 37.5100M
6 长桥证券长桥 12.0100M
8 盈立证券盈立 11.3100M
9 卓锐证券 10.8100M
10 信诚证券信诚 10.0100M
11 TradeGo MarketsTradeGo 8.9100M
12 艾德证券艾德 1.7100M
13 盈宝证券盈宝 1.0100M
14 FunderstoneFunderstone 355510K
Margin multiple
TimeMultiple
2025-12-18T06:00:00+08:000
2025-12-18T10:24:08+08:000.0045666110476859575
2025-12-18T10:25:43+08:000.27241591288311234
2025-12-18T11:09:17+08:000.2947220514621937
2025-12-18T11:09:53+08:000.33669974532361463
2025-12-18T11:10:32+08:000.33823658558004743
2025-12-18T11:11:20+08:002.3932115570387285
2025-12-18T11:18:42+08:002.4722490559409853
2025-12-18T12:03:32+08:002.479450250285413
2025-12-18T12:05:00+08:002.5202423816633
2025-12-18T12:05:45+08:002.5331518398173354
2025-12-18T12:06:16+08:003.3542636339685608
2025-12-18T13:47:10+08:003.3626943005181347
2025-12-18T13:48:43+08:003.630543602353561
2025-12-18T13:49:27+08:003.6468341090717487
2025-12-18T13:50:01+08:003.647844032668833
2025-12-18T14:03:54+08:003.7101519276367787
2025-12-18T14:04:26+08:003.7134890664793185
2025-12-18T14:04:56+08:003.8276543426714675
2025-12-18T14:06:07+08:004.52581891630807
2025-12-18T14:08:48+08:004.67713181698428
2025-12-18T14:48:47+08:004.721041538596645
2025-12-18T15:31:49+08:004.723676121893387
2025-12-18T15:32:24+08:004.734917010626153
2025-12-18T15:33:02+08:004.748265565996312
2025-12-18T15:33:41+08:005.881136383595328
2025-12-18T16:56:16+08:005.926231667691227
2025-12-18T16:56:20+08:005.927988056555721
2025-12-18T16:57:15+08:005.963862299113024
2025-12-18T16:57:54+08:005.966057785193642
2025-12-18T16:58:36+08:006.932071660665671
2025-12-18T17:01:00+08:006.9564415561605335
2025-12-18T17:04:52+08:007.149380872925265
2025-12-18T17:05:30+08:007.266575919908668
2025-12-18T17:06:52+08:009.189821726530253
2025-12-18T18:09:55+08:009.365460612979714
2025-12-18T18:10:22+08:0011.209668920699043
2025-12-18T18:11:24+08:0011.220251163607623
2025-12-18T18:12:18+08:0011.349916571528937
2025-12-18T18:13:08+08:0011.447966979889348
2025-12-18T18:13:40+08:0012.295424607007991
2025-12-18T18:17:20+08:0012.908140862386933
2025-12-18T20:24:24+08:0012.910248529024326
2025-12-18T20:26:06+08:0012.921884605251602
2025-12-18T20:27:07+08:0013.574690436462634
2025-12-18T20:27:33+08:0013.846579432686397
2025-12-18T20:28:22+08:0014.448142618775798
2025-12-18T20:28:40+08:0014.966277333801704
2025-12-18T21:38:30+08:0015.313998419250021
2025-12-18T21:39:09+08:0016.54786159655748
2025-12-18T22:06:41+08:0016.59563537367173
2025-12-18T22:07:12+08:0017.254281197857207
2025-12-19T08:39:07+08:0017.372925265653816
2025-12-19T08:39:10+08:0017.742425573021865
2025-12-19T08:40:27+08:0020.1047685957671
2025-12-19T08:46:38+08:0020.1047685957671
2025-12-19T09:03:20+08:0020.1381399841925
2025-12-19T09:04:00+08:0020.20791253183455
2025-12-19T09:07:24+08:0021.08171599192061
2025-12-19T09:10:05+08:0021.530736805128655
2025-12-19T09:39:27+08:0021.75028541319048
2025-12-19T10:14:18+08:0021.756696232545885
2025-12-19T10:15:30+08:0021.91108281373496
2025-12-19T10:15:55+08:0021.982787389127953
2025-12-19T10:16:16+08:0024.099235970843946
2025-12-19T11:00:45+08:0024.474312812856766
2025-12-19T11:08:02+08:0024.791077544568367
2025-12-19T11:08:50+08:0025.222139281636956
2025-12-19T11:10:58+08:0026.956573285325373
2025-12-19T12:04:20+08:0026.966101694915253
2025-12-19T12:05:37+08:0027.067269693510145
2025-12-19T12:06:11+08:0027.26104329498551
2025-12-19T12:06:44+08:0027.972380785105823
2025-12-19T13:42:09+08:0028.09747958197945
2025-12-19T13:42:47+08:0028.189338719592516
2025-12-19T13:43:26+08:0028.306402037411083
2025-12-19T13:44:02+08:0029.14946869236849
2025-12-19T13:44:24+08:0029.32510757881795
2025-12-19T14:09:21+08:0029.348204092386055
2025-12-19T14:09:57+08:0029.439887591112672
2025-12-19T14:10:21+08:0031.029419513480285
2025-12-19T14:11:01+08:0031.157152893650654
2025-12-19T14:13:17+08:0031.556380082550277
2025-12-19T15:07:58+08:0031.682357073856153
2025-12-19T15:08:26+08:0031.74264512162993
2025-12-19T15:09:04+08:0031.776148239220163
2025-12-19T15:09:25+08:0034.920084306665494
2025-12-19T16:00:43+08:0034.95450952840959
2025-12-19T16:01:25+08:0035.34969702292087
2025-12-19T16:04:11+08:0035.4826117502415
2025-12-19T16:04:42+08:0035.56314217967858
2025-12-19T16:05:42+08:0038.79928866250988
2025-12-19T17:03:21+08:0038.8036357249495
2025-12-19T17:03:50+08:0038.930973917625366
2025-12-19T17:04:59+08:0040.93453060507596
2025-12-19T17:05:50+08:0054.12940194959164
2025-12-19T17:37:29+08:0054.61240888732765
2025-12-19T17:38:10+08:0060.67195046983402
2025-12-19T18:09:52+08:0060.67480460173883
2025-12-19T18:10:41+08:0060.996443312549395
2025-12-19T18:11:08+08:0061.810880829015545
2025-12-19T18:11:48+08:0068.3270835162905
2025-12-19T18:20:29+08:0069.99047159041012
2025-12-19T20:20:06+08:0069.99301835426364
2025-12-19T20:20:53+08:0070.26732238517607
2025-12-19T20:21:13+08:0070.62026872749627
2025-12-19T20:21:52+08:0075.21761658031087
2025-12-19T20:22:27+08:0075.28962852375516
2025-12-19T20:22:47+08:0075.62751383156231
2025-12-19T20:23:16+08:0077.6122332484412
2025-12-19T22:20:30+08:0077.68696759462544
2025-12-19T22:20:44+08:0077.77456748924212
2025-12-19T22:21:14+08:0078.18986563625187
2025-12-19T22:21:34+08:0078.56028804777378
2025-12-19T22:22:05+08:0081.61640467199437
2025-12-19T22:22:22+08:0091.52682883990515
2025-12-19T23:05:46+08:0091.9694827434794
2025-12-19T23:06:26+08:0092.15969965750418
2025-12-20T10:13:52+08:0092.46531131992623
2025-12-20T10:19:48+08:0093.92781241766927
2025-12-20T10:25:30+08:00104.61104768595767
2025-12-20T10:25:34+08:00106.43330113287082
2025-12-20T10:25:38+08:00109.48063581276895
2025-12-20T10:28:46+08:00109.53323965926056
2025-12-20T10:28:49+08:00109.53710371476245
2025-12-20T10:33:49+08:00109.53710371476245
2025-12-20T12:35:59+08:00109.66167559497673
2025-12-20T12:36:08+08:00109.95117238956705
2025-12-20T12:37:19+08:00112.326688328796
2025-12-20T12:37:44+08:00114.1796785808378
2025-12-20T12:40:01+08:00114.18055677527005
2025-12-20T12:40:25+08:00114.18169842803196
2025-12-20T12:41:08+08:00114.21511372617897
2025-12-20T12:41:16+08:00114.26359005883903
2025-12-20T15:51:22+08:00114.27245982260473
2025-12-20T15:51:41+08:00114.27957319750593
2025-12-20T15:52:04+08:00114.29393167647316
2025-12-20T15:52:40+08:00114.77197681566699
2025-12-20T15:52:45+08:00115.26578554491965
2025-12-20T15:52:51+08:00115.43303767454114
2025-12-20T15:55:42+08:00116.78545710020198
2025-12-20T15:55:46+08:00118.17300430315272
2025-12-20T15:55:50+08:00119.2663563713006
2025-12-20T15:57:43+08:00119.26732238517607
2025-12-20T15:57:47+08:00119.26784930183543
2025-12-20T15:57:50+08:00119.2688153157109
2025-12-20T16:00:39+08:00119.26956178097831
2025-12-20T21:44:12+08:00119.29379994730833
2025-12-20T21:44:17+08:00119.32308773162379
2025-12-20T21:44:21+08:00119.35198032844471
2025-12-20T21:44:25+08:00119.3828049530166
2025-12-20T21:44:29+08:00119.39268464037939
2025-12-20T21:44:34+08:00119.4275489593396
2025-12-20T21:58:53+08:00120.5472468604549
2025-12-20T21:58:57+08:00121.38592254325107
2025-12-20T21:59:01+08:00122.13238781066129
2025-12-20T21:59:05+08:00122.91398085536137
2025-12-20T21:59:09+08:00123.76582945464126
2025-12-20T21:59:17+08:00125.1314217967858
2025-12-20T22:02:06+08:00125.34732589795381
2025-12-20T22:02:10+08:00125.41819618863616
2025-12-20T22:02:14+08:00125.5408360410995
2025-12-20T22:02:18+08:00125.67137964345307
2025-12-20T22:02:22+08:00125.78580837797489
2025-12-20T22:02:26+08:00126.25204180205498
2025-12-20T22:04:41+08:00126.25410555897075
2025-12-20T22:04:45+08:00126.25458856590849
2025-12-20T22:04:49+08:00126.25559848950557
2025-12-20T22:05:43+08:00126.25731096864845
2025-12-20T22:08:07+08:00127.00671818740669
2025-12-20T22:08:50+08:00128.3196188636164
2025-12-21T10:05:26+08:00128.4442785632739
2025-12-21T10:06:31+08:00129.32286818301571
2025-12-21T10:08:37+08:00129.33371388425397
2025-12-21T10:09:30+08:00135.7269693510143
2025-12-21T10:09:57+08:00136.4119610081672
2025-12-21T10:10:15+08:00138.71283042065514
2025-12-21T12:23:10+08:00138.71524545534382
2025-12-21T12:23:33+08:00138.72920874681654
2025-12-21T12:23:41+08:00138.75990164222358
2025-12-21T12:24:38+08:00139.14898568543074
2025-12-21T12:25:07+08:00142.24901203126373
2025-12-21T12:25:29+08:00144.2205585316589
2025-12-21T16:30:47+08:00144.2560814964433
2025-12-21T16:31:55+08:00144.2624923157987
2025-12-21T16:32:09+08:00144.26473171160094
2025-12-21T16:33:22+08:00144.94190743830683
2025-12-21T16:34:56+08:00149.67098445595855
2025-12-21T16:35:19+08:00151.14635110213402
2025-12-21T18:12:28+08:00151.15324492842714
2025-12-21T18:12:53+08:00151.15328883814877
2025-12-21T18:13:54+08:00151.66022657416352
2025-12-21T18:14:31+08:00153.39905155001318
2025-12-21T18:14:49+08:00155.08079388776676
2025-12-21T20:08:26+08:00155.08496531131993
2025-12-21T20:08:49+08:00155.08399929744445
2025-12-21T20:09:08+08:00155.16136822692545
2025-12-21T20:09:35+08:00156.6235619566172
2025-12-21T20:10:17+08:00157.55229647844033
2025-12-21T20:10:47+08:00159.04961798542197
2025-12-21T21:09:10+08:00159.05032054096776
2025-12-21T21:09:31+08:00159.36067445332395
2025-12-21T21:10:02+08:00161.89426539035742
2025-12-21T22:11:53+08:00162.2073856151752
2025-12-21T22:12:30+08:00165.09664529726882
2025-12-22T08:59:43+08:00165.9336524106437
2025-12-22T08:59:46+08:00167.0923421445508
2025-12-22T09:00:41+08:00185.35000439097217
2025-12-22T09:01:27+08:00185.3774479669799
2025-12-22T09:01:54+08:00185.3774479669799
2025-12-22T09:05:08+08:00186.9051989110389
2025-12-22T09:07:08+08:00186.90546236936856
2025-12-22T09:07:50+08:00197.47453236146484
2025-12-22T10:03:47+08:00201.4264073065777
2025-12-22T10:05:31+08:00201.4443224729955
2025-12-22T10:06:20+08:00201.61100377623606
2025-12-22T10:06:49+08:00204.02819004127514
2025-12-22T10:07:26+08:00222.1541231228594
2025-12-22T11:10:07+08:00222.61034513041187
2025-12-22T11:10:49+08:00225.56020022833056
2025-12-22T11:11:34+08:00227.72468604549047
2025-12-22T11:12:30+08:00249.2141038025819
2025-12-22T12:21:06+08:00249.24356722578378
2025-12-22T12:22:09+08:00250.80372354439274
2025-12-22T12:23:08+08:00264.6616316852551
2025-12-22T12:24:24+08:00265.04772986739266
2025-12-22T13:50:57+08:00265.10165100553263
2025-12-22T13:51:00+08:00265.211030122069
2025-12-22T13:51:02+08:00266.6798103100026
2025-12-22T13:51:05+08:00281.49495038201457
2025-12-22T14:02:56+08:00281.49661895143583
2025-12-22T14:04:03+08:00281.70861508738034
2025-12-22T14:05:27+08:00283.78014402388686
2025-12-22T14:06:12+08:00299.79841046807763
2025-12-22T14:08:38+08:00318.02955124264514
2025-12-22T14:10:35+08:00321.0681039782208
2025-12-22T15:20:11+08:00321.2968736278212
2025-12-22T15:20:57+08:00322.35132168262055
2025-12-22T15:24:23+08:00324.3871520154562
2025-12-22T15:25:11+08:00339.96193027136206
2025-12-22T16:04:59+08:00342.38284886273823
2025-12-22T16:07:21+08:00357.1848160182664
2025-12-22T16:08:48+08:00361.1366909633793
2025-12-22T17:11:49+08:00361.3117590234478
2025-12-22T17:12:45+08:00364.0872486168438
2025-12-22T17:13:46+08:00389.7261350663037
2025-12-22T17:17:16+08:00493.7921752876087
2025-12-22T17:59:15+08:00495.98766136822695
2025-12-22T18:00:24+08:00500.7277158162817
2025-12-22T18:08:26+08:00503.567620971283
2025-12-22T18:09:08+08:00526.2338192675859
2025-12-22T18:13:16+08:00533.6064371651884
2025-12-22T19:58:11+08:00533.6027926582946
2025-12-22T19:58:43+08:00535.3745938350751
2025-12-22T19:59:20+08:00557.3118907526126
2025-12-22T20:04:30+08:00557.3437692105032
2025-12-22T20:04:52+08:00560.050979186792
2025-12-22T20:05:28+08:00581.0617809783085
2025-12-22T21:31:00+08:00581.062307894968
2025-12-22T21:31:23+08:00584.1183366997453
2025-12-22T21:32:00+08:00607.0962940194959
2025-12-22T22:10:09+08:00610.0722754017739
2025-12-22T22:10:41+08:00641.1252305260384
2025-12-23T08:54:34+08:00641.12527443576
2025-12-23T08:54:41+08:00645.1630367963467
2025-12-23T08:54:57+08:00645.1630367963467
2025-12-23T08:55:04+08:00645.1630367963467
2025-12-23T08:55:11+08:00653.9519188548345
2025-12-23T08:55:20+08:00829.3317379467815
2025-12-23T09:08:49+08:00832.2252129621498
2025-12-23T09:08:54+08:00898.6079300957232
2025-12-23T10:09:16+08:00904.7552911214543
2025-12-23T10:09:22+08:00904.7552911214543
2025-12-23T10:09:31+08:00906.7498902256959
2025-12-23T10:09:36+08:00968.0873803460086
2025-12-23T10:59:59+08:00986.8644506893826
2025-12-23T11:07:36+08:001115.0808377974884
2025-12-23T11:33:20+08:001156.121103012207
2025-12-23T16:46:37+08:001161.33
TradeGo forecast multiple
TimeMultiple
Broker margin funds trend
TimeBrokerMargin funds
Prediction Model 1-Lot Expected Lots— Lots for expected 1-lot allotment—
Multiple derivation
Recent first-day return
-0.2%
→
Participants
22,832
→
Avg lots
93.5
→
Oversubscription
113x
113x = 22,832 × 93.5 ÷ 18,939 margin-weighted 100% → 1393.6x
1x4390.0x
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.54
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.64
This model does not support allocation strategy adjustment

Actual vs Predicted Comparison

Using the actual oversubscription ratio 1427.37x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.541, Pool B α=0.641) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier

Lots Subscription Amount (HKD) Actual Expected Lots Predicted Expected Lots Error

LogoInsilico Allotment Prediction Matrix

Rows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates expected ≥1 lot. Non-preset multiples are interpolated from the nearest grid points.

Offering Mechanism

Mechanism B

Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).

Allocation Strategy Coefficient α

α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].

  • α → 0: Per-capita allocation — regardless of lots subscribed, every allottee receives the same number of shares. More favorable to retail (small) applications.
  • α → 1: Proportional allocation — allotted shares are proportional to lots subscribed. More favorable to large applications.
  • Historical actual α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0. α varies widely across IPOs, reflecting each issuer's allocation strategy.
Allotment Rate Definition

The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").

Expected Allotment Lots

Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier

Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.

About this page

This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Insilico (03696): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 22087 allotment-tier records across 592 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation). You can override the oversubscription multiple and the allocation-method α right on the page, replacing cibo's defaults to see expected lots under your own scenario. How allotment rates and clawback work is explained in How Hong Kong IPO Allotment Rates Work.
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.

Cibo — HK IPO Allotment Forecasts, Allottee Profiling & Stock Connect