Biren Tech 06082Expected Lots

Biren Tech (06082) Expected Lots
Offering Mechanism: 18C | Min Subscription: HK$3,920  |  Public Offering Lots: Pool A 30,962lots / Pool B 30,962lots  |  Offer Price: HK$19.60  |  Lot Size: 200shares  |  Public Offering Size: HK$242.7M
1x4119.0x
Recent first-day return
+4.6%
→
Participants
20,886
→
Avg lots
78.4
→
Oversubscription
26x
26x = 20,886 × 78.4 ÷ 61,924 margin-weighted 100% → 1887.1x
Margin dynamics · 2025-12-29 11:02 Margin multiple1887.0549559199144x Margin funds4580.6100M
Rank Broker Margin funds
1 富途证券富途 2903.0100M
2 辉立证券辉立 943.0100M
3 老虎国际老虎 429.8100M
4 华泰国际华泰 190.3100M
5 华盛证券华盛 53.1100M
6 卓锐证券 27.2100M
7 长桥证券长桥 13.0100M
8 TradeGo MarketsTradeGo 12.0100M
9 盈立证券盈立 9.2100M
Margin multiple
TimeMultiple
2025-12-22T06:00:00+08:000
2025-12-22T10:05:38+08:000.04428606739721513
2025-12-22T10:06:23+08:000.2336244541484716
2025-12-22T10:06:58+08:001.534069374639532
2025-12-22T10:07:32+08:002.465106698525171
2025-12-22T11:10:10+08:003.1272143033698607
2025-12-22T11:10:54+08:003.244253110323803
2025-12-22T11:11:41+08:004.191686578231853
2025-12-22T11:12:36+08:009.077572711543215
2025-12-22T11:13:05+08:009.078314245694981
2025-12-22T11:27:07+08:009.078396638378512
2025-12-22T12:21:18+08:009.091249897009146
2025-12-22T12:22:24+08:009.302339952212243
2025-12-22T12:23:16+08:0012.28907473016396
2025-12-22T12:24:21+08:0012.623712614319848
2025-12-22T12:25:00+08:0012.829694323144105
2025-12-22T13:50:06+08:0013.28421356183571
2025-12-22T13:50:28+08:0013.294347861909863
2025-12-22T13:50:33+08:0013.565749361456703
2025-12-22T13:50:36+08:0013.881684106451347
2025-12-22T13:50:39+08:0017.251544862816182
2025-12-22T14:03:01+08:0017.26077284337151
2025-12-22T14:04:05+08:0017.479154651066985
2025-12-22T14:05:36+08:0017.68937958309302
2025-12-22T14:06:17+08:0020.779105215456866
2025-12-22T14:07:27+08:0021.697454066078933
2025-12-22T14:11:41+08:0021.821043091373486
2025-12-22T15:20:14+08:0021.94932849962923
2025-12-22T15:21:04+08:0022.688308478207134
2025-12-22T15:24:33+08:0022.871467413693665
2025-12-22T15:25:16+08:0027.073494273708494
2025-12-22T16:02:15+08:0027.122229546016314
2025-12-22T16:05:24+08:0027.584370107934415
2025-12-22T16:05:45+08:0027.85919090384774
2025-12-22T16:07:27+08:0030.24033945785614
2025-12-22T16:21:34+08:0030.240710224932027
2025-12-22T17:11:51+08:0030.529208206311278
2025-12-22T17:12:04+08:0030.66305512070528
2025-12-22T17:12:54+08:0030.739515531020846
2025-12-22T17:13:05+08:0030.739680316387904
2025-12-22T17:13:51+08:0033.13730740710225
2025-12-22T17:59:30+08:0033.26501606657329
2025-12-22T17:59:36+08:0039.44446733130098
2025-12-22T18:00:14+08:0039.46988547416989
2025-12-22T18:07:57+08:0039.57312350663261
2025-12-22T18:08:41+08:0039.805841641262255
2025-12-22T18:09:18+08:0043.307530691274614
2025-12-22T18:10:59+08:0045.05870478701491
2025-12-22T19:57:50+08:0045.08280464694735
2025-12-22T19:58:23+08:0045.08387575183324
2025-12-22T19:58:57+08:0045.455878717969846
2025-12-22T19:59:28+08:0046.3539589684436
2025-12-22T20:05:05+08:0046.43569251050507
2025-12-22T20:05:37+08:0047.28845678503749
2025-12-22T21:31:37+08:0047.246642498146166
2025-12-22T21:32:11+08:0048.40425970173848
2025-12-22T22:10:22+08:0048.55001235890253
2025-12-22T22:10:49+08:0050.32145505479114
2025-12-23T08:57:34+08:0050.30254593392107
2025-12-23T08:57:41+08:0050.82627502677762
2025-12-23T08:57:47+08:0050.82611024141056
2025-12-23T08:58:04+08:0050.82611024141056
2025-12-23T08:58:17+08:0050.83410233171294
2025-12-23T08:58:26+08:0051.08713026283266
2025-12-23T08:58:33+08:0056.533286644146
2025-12-23T09:07:26+08:0056.744417895690866
2025-12-23T09:07:40+08:0057.06888028343083
2025-12-23T09:07:47+08:0057.78981626431573
2025-12-23T10:07:31+08:0057.95872126555162
2025-12-23T10:07:38+08:0057.96452994974047
2025-12-23T10:07:47+08:0058.05928153579962
2025-12-23T10:07:54+08:0058.54737579302958
2025-12-23T10:08:02+08:0059.84506055862239
2025-12-23T10:58:50+08:0060.33315481585235
2025-12-23T11:03:34+08:0060.712943890582515
2025-12-23T11:08:24+08:0061.404424487105544
2025-12-23T11:08:34+08:0061.88036582351487
2025-12-23T11:08:41+08:0065.16783389635
2025-12-23T11:32:37+08:0065.17442531103238
2025-12-23T12:00:04+08:0065.28660294965808
2025-12-23T12:08:19+08:0065.28672653868337
2025-12-23T12:08:22+08:0065.93964735931449
2025-12-23T12:08:25+08:0066.03505808684189
2025-12-23T12:08:29+08:0068.87348603444015
2025-12-23T13:49:53+08:0068.92073823844443
2025-12-23T13:49:59+08:0069.12861497898986
2025-12-23T13:50:02+08:0069.26056686166268
2025-12-23T13:50:04+08:0072.4450440800857
2025-12-23T14:00:06+08:0072.58160995303616
2025-12-23T14:00:42+08:0073.19181016725715
2025-12-23T14:10:19+08:0073.20355112466012
2025-12-23T14:10:22+08:0073.45814451676691
2025-12-23T14:10:25+08:0074.78054708741864
2025-12-23T16:12:23+08:0074.86693581609953
2025-12-23T16:12:28+08:0074.87954189667957
2025-12-23T16:12:33+08:0074.87950070033781
2025-12-23T16:12:40+08:0075.90813215786439
2025-12-23T16:12:46+08:0076.13001565460988
2025-12-23T16:13:04+08:0076.1740545439565
2025-12-23T16:13:11+08:0077.81366894619758
2025-12-23T16:13:15+08:0080.10830518249979
2025-12-23T16:45:20+08:0080.11530856059981
2025-12-23T17:09:24+08:0080.1249485045728
2025-12-23T17:09:29+08:0080.2049929966219
2025-12-23T17:09:32+08:0080.39828623218258
2025-12-23T17:09:34+08:0082.02554173189421
2025-12-23T17:30:18+08:0090.10002471780506
2025-12-23T18:05:06+08:0090.4765592815358
2025-12-23T18:05:08+08:0090.71834061135371
2025-12-23T18:05:18+08:0090.9772596193458
2025-12-23T18:05:21+08:0091.38922303699431
2025-12-23T18:05:34+08:0091.56978660294966
2025-12-23T18:05:37+08:0091.86578231853011
2025-12-23T18:05:41+08:0094.04918843206723
2025-12-23T18:10:39+08:0094.71821702232842
2025-12-23T20:24:31+08:0094.9871055450276
2025-12-23T20:24:36+08:0095.05956991019198
2025-12-23T20:24:41+08:0095.19316964653538
2025-12-23T20:24:45+08:0095.25438741039795
2025-12-23T20:24:50+08:0095.31346296448875
2025-12-23T20:24:55+08:0095.40804976518085
2025-12-23T20:24:59+08:0095.5620004943561
2025-12-23T20:25:04+08:0096.11815110818159
2025-12-23T20:25:08+08:0096.11868666062453
2025-12-23T20:25:13+08:0096.13088077778693
2025-12-23T20:25:17+08:0096.22629150531432
2025-12-23T20:25:23+08:0096.22592073823844
2025-12-23T20:25:31+08:0096.35400016478536
2025-12-23T20:25:37+08:0096.39705034192964
2025-12-23T20:25:41+08:0097.12210595699102
2025-12-23T22:07:10+08:0097.11386668863805
2025-12-23T22:07:15+08:0097.12004613990278
2025-12-23T22:07:20+08:0097.13693664002636
2025-12-23T22:07:24+08:0097.2753151520145
2025-12-23T22:07:29+08:0097.85721347944302
2025-12-23T22:07:34+08:0099.06014665897668
2025-12-23T22:07:39+08:0099.05948751750844
2025-12-23T22:07:43+08:0099.09788250803328
2025-12-23T22:07:48+08:0099.30032133146577
2025-12-23T22:07:52+08:00100.10776963005685
2025-12-24T08:33:54+08:00100.12812062288869
2025-12-24T08:34:02+08:00100.1747548817665
2025-12-24T08:34:06+08:00100.56031144434374
2025-12-24T08:34:13+08:00107.20116173683778
2025-12-24T08:34:39+08:00107.35980884897421
2025-12-24T08:34:51+08:00107.35980884897421
2025-12-24T08:58:33+08:00109.04156710884074
2025-12-24T09:03:09+08:00109.34337150861003
2025-12-24T09:03:17+08:00109.42115020186208
2025-12-24T09:03:29+08:00109.42588778116503
2025-12-24T09:03:34+08:00109.53250391365246
2025-12-24T09:04:05+08:00111.64665897668287
2025-12-24T09:20:05+08:00112.91550630304029
2025-12-24T09:20:09+08:00113.16812227074236
2025-12-24T10:06:10+08:00113.20149130757189
2025-12-24T10:06:13+08:00113.0561506138255
2025-12-24T10:06:20+08:00113.15263244623877
2025-12-24T10:06:30+08:00113.63145752657164
2025-12-24T10:06:36+08:00116.96012194117162
2025-12-24T10:56:12+08:00117.00799209030238
2025-12-24T10:56:15+08:00118.18480678915712
2025-12-24T10:56:17+08:00118.1786273378924
2025-12-24T11:04:49+08:00118.53637636977837
2025-12-24T11:04:53+08:00118.53674713685425
2025-12-24T11:05:14+08:00119.15469226332702
2025-12-24T11:05:19+08:00119.34584328911593
2025-12-24T11:05:22+08:00119.77815769959628
2025-12-24T11:05:25+08:00122.57538930542968
2025-12-24T11:23:56+08:00122.5816923457197
2025-12-24T12:09:17+08:00122.14917195353053
2025-12-24T12:09:21+08:00122.16387904754058
2025-12-24T12:09:29+08:00122.2352311114773
2025-12-24T12:09:40+08:00122.45657905577984
2025-12-24T12:09:45+08:00123.08647112136443
2025-12-24T12:09:55+08:00126.69939029414188
2025-12-24T13:45:47+08:00126.82800527313175
2025-12-24T13:45:49+08:00126.99971162560765
2025-12-24T13:45:52+08:00131.29237043750516
2025-12-24T14:03:08+08:00131.42893631045564
2025-12-24T14:03:38+08:00133.35832578067067
2025-12-24T14:04:03+08:00133.4668369448793
2025-12-24T14:05:48+08:00135.77795171788745
2025-12-24T14:59:54+08:00135.78400758012688
2025-12-24T15:09:59+08:00135.91682458597677
2025-12-24T15:10:01+08:00135.9866523852682
2025-12-24T15:10:04+08:00138.24009227980557
2025-12-24T15:16:52+08:00202.25920738238443
2025-12-24T15:52:17+08:00202.25957814946034
2025-12-24T16:20:48+08:00202.26003130921976
2025-12-24T16:20:51+08:00202.26736425805387
2025-12-24T16:21:00+08:00202.62099365576336
2025-12-24T16:21:05+08:00205.51297684765592
2025-12-24T16:40:07+08:00205.51590178792122
2025-12-24T17:00:59+08:00205.53930131004367
2025-12-24T17:08:57+08:00205.54004284419543
2025-12-24T17:09:04+08:00213.30757188761638
2025-12-24T17:09:09+08:00318.56834473098786
2025-12-24T18:04:08+08:00318.5690862651397
2025-12-24T18:04:13+08:00324.74853752986735
2025-12-24T18:04:18+08:00324.7504325615885
2025-12-24T18:04:23+08:00344.55643898821785
2025-12-24T18:07:42+08:00359.88753398698196
2025-12-24T18:10:53+08:00409.50028837439237
2025-12-24T19:17:02+08:00409.50065914146825
2025-12-24T19:17:07+08:00409.51536623547827
2025-12-24T19:17:11+08:00409.5118233500865
2025-12-24T19:17:16+08:00409.5102166927577
2025-12-24T19:17:21+08:00416.16037735849056
2025-12-24T19:17:26+08:00446.5097223366565
2025-12-24T20:21:11+08:00446.55948751750844
2025-12-24T20:21:18+08:00451.2882096069869
2025-12-24T20:21:24+08:00468.17047046222297
2025-12-24T20:21:29+08:00468.2683117739145
2025-12-24T22:09:13+08:00468.2976847655928
2025-12-24T22:09:18+08:00468.2991678338964
2025-12-24T22:09:25+08:00472.60579220565216
2025-12-24T22:09:31+08:00488.08325780670674
2025-12-24T22:09:36+08:00488.08395814451677
2025-12-24T22:09:41+08:00491.8062948010217
2025-12-24T22:09:45+08:00508.43725797149216
2025-12-25T08:43:10+08:00508.4387410397957
2025-12-25T08:43:13+08:00508.4827799291423
2025-12-25T08:43:16+08:00508.49011287797646
2025-12-25T08:43:19+08:00508.5635247590014
2025-12-25T08:43:25+08:00515.6335997363434
2025-12-25T08:43:33+08:00523.0269424075142
2025-12-25T08:43:43+08:00523.0269424075142
2025-12-25T08:43:49+08:00595.8620746477712
2025-12-25T09:02:56+08:00609.8117739144764
2025-12-25T09:03:26+08:00609.8338139573206
2025-12-25T09:03:31+08:00611.0102990854413
2025-12-25T09:07:44+08:00621.3670594051248
2025-12-25T09:07:49+08:00626.310620416907
2025-12-25T10:13:20+08:00627.5466754552195
2025-12-25T10:13:25+08:00638.9003872456126
2025-12-25T10:45:40+08:00638.9150531432808
2025-12-25T11:04:30+08:00638.9231276262668
2025-12-25T11:04:38+08:00640.589684436022
2025-12-25T11:06:19+08:00652.4707094010051
2025-12-25T11:24:40+08:00652.4817088242564
2025-12-25T11:49:30+08:00652.4922138914064
2025-12-25T12:12:04+08:00654.0934744994645
2025-12-25T12:12:09+08:00662.6005190739062
2025-12-25T13:43:26+08:00663.910480349345
2025-12-25T13:43:30+08:00673.183776880613
2025-12-25T14:01:51+08:00676.6195517838016
2025-12-25T14:12:39+08:00677.8473675537613
2025-12-25T14:12:42+08:00684.7271566284913
2025-12-25T15:07:35+08:00686.0273543709319
2025-12-25T15:07:37+08:00691.7866029496581
2025-12-25T16:06:04+08:00693.2717310702809
2025-12-25T16:06:06+08:00699.3234736755376
2025-12-25T16:26:38+08:00699.3256570816511
2025-12-25T17:37:07+08:00700.1620664085029
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2025-12-25T18:15:28+08:00707.4936145670265
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2025-12-25T20:27:01+08:00715.704457444179
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2025-12-26T09:01:11+08:00763.4196671335585
2025-12-26T09:25:23+08:00764.6406855071269
2025-12-26T09:25:29+08:00769.4524182252616
2025-12-26T09:25:37+08:00771.1332289692675
2025-12-26T10:28:15+08:00772.2894866935816
2025-12-26T10:28:19+08:00784.5412787344484
2025-12-26T11:49:18+08:00786.5013182829365
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2025-12-26T13:43:18+08:00797.479319436434
2025-12-26T13:43:28+08:00804.9276180275192
2025-12-26T13:43:37+08:00805.6768558951965
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2025-12-26T14:06:53+08:00814.3547828952788
2025-12-26T14:06:56+08:00824.2625030897257
2025-12-26T14:07:29+08:00826.5164373403642
2025-12-26T15:43:35+08:00828.8382631622312
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2025-12-26T16:03:49+08:00837.6947763038643
2025-12-26T16:06:03+08:00843.857749031886
2025-12-26T17:13:16+08:00844.7077531515201
2025-12-26T17:13:21+08:00850.0921150201862
2025-12-26T18:53:51+08:00851.3280052731318
2025-12-26T18:53:56+08:00852.5736590590756
2025-12-26T18:54:03+08:00860.5904671665156
2025-12-26T18:55:43+08:00863.1575348109088
2025-12-26T21:10:54+08:00863.7702068056357
2025-12-26T21:11:00+08:00869.2946362363023
2025-12-26T21:11:05+08:00869.807118727857
2025-12-26T21:11:09+08:00874.4623053472851
2025-12-26T21:11:14+08:00875.1710884073494
2025-12-26T21:11:19+08:00879.5379006344236
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2025-12-27T10:07:15+08:00928.8619922550878
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2025-12-27T11:17:29+08:00940.3534234160006
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2025-12-28T10:29:26+08:001022.6863310538024
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2025-12-29T10:09:58+08:001484.9251050506714
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2025-12-29T11:02:10+08:001887.0549559199144
TradeGo forecast multiple
TimeMultiple
Broker margin funds trend
TimeBrokerMargin funds
Pool A α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.50
Pool B α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.60
This model does not support allocation strategy adjustment

Actual vs Predicted Comparison

Using the actual oversubscription ratio 2347.53x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.502, Pool B α=0.602) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier

Lots Subscription Amount (HKD) Actual Expected Lots Predicted Expected Lots Error

LogoBiren Tech Allotment Prediction Matrix

Rows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates guaranteed allotment (≥1 lot)

Pool A

Oversubscription
1887.1x
Allocation Strategy
α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.50

Pool B

Oversubscription
1887.1x
Allocation Strategy
α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.60
Offering Mechanism

18C

HKEX Listing Rule Chapter 18C for specialist technology companies. Mechanisms A and B do not apply. Initial allocation 5%, with clawback: 10x to below 50x → 10%, 50x or above → 20%. At least 50% of total offering shares must be taken up by independent pricing investors in the placing tranche.

Allocation Strategy Coefficient α

α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].

  • α → 0: Per-capita allocation — regardless of lots subscribed, every allottee receives the same number of shares. More favorable to retail (small) applications.
  • α → 1: Proportional allocation — allotted shares are proportional to lots subscribed. More favorable to large applications.
  • Historical actual α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0. α varies widely across IPOs, reflecting each issuer's allocation strategy.
Allotment Rate Definition

The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").

Expected Allotment Lots

Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier

Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.

// About this page //

This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Biren Tech (06082): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 10,897 allotment-tier records across 356 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation).
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.

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Cibo — HK IPO Allotment Forecasts, Allottee Profiling & Stock Connect