Montage Tech 06809Expected Lots
Montage Tech (06809) Expected Lots
| Rank | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
2212.8100M |
| 2 |  辉立 |
792.0100M |
| 3 |  老虎 |
343.9100M |
| 4 |  华泰 |
127.1100M |
| 5 |  招银 |
92.0100M |
| 6 |  华盛 |
45.0100M |
| 7 |  信诚 |
20.0100M |
| 8 |  TradeGo |
16.3100M |
| 9 |  盈立 |
15.8100M |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-30T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2026-01-30T10:16:03+08:00 | 0.006105352832599744 |
| 2026-01-30T10:16:10+08:00 | 0.047877325003549624 |
| 2026-01-30T10:16:24+08:00 | 0.05497657248331677 |
| 2026-01-30T10:16:30+08:00 | 0.05952009087036774 |
| 2026-01-30T11:07:23+08:00 | 0.11811727956836575 |
| 2026-01-30T11:08:12+08:00 | 0.5859718869799801 |
| 2026-01-30T11:09:19+08:00 | 1.8922334232571347 |
| 2026-01-30T11:30:53+08:00 | 1.903265653840693 |
| 2026-01-30T12:14:37+08:00 | 1.9245066023001562 |
| 2026-01-30T12:15:21+08:00 | 1.9535851199772825 |
| 2026-01-30T12:15:59+08:00 | 3.386213261394292 |
| 2026-01-30T13:42:57+08:00 | 3.3925457901462446 |
| 2026-01-30T13:43:49+08:00 | 3.56189123952861 |
| 2026-01-30T13:44:30+08:00 | 5.387817691324719 |
| 2026-01-30T13:49:52+08:00 | 5.387888683799518 |
| 2026-01-30T14:03:22+08:00 | 5.413871929575465 |
| 2026-01-30T14:04:00+08:00 | 6.1066732926309815 |
| 2026-01-30T14:05:58+08:00 | 7.106247337782195 |
| 2026-01-30T14:09:26+08:00 | 7.177225614084907 |
| 2026-01-30T15:09:56+08:00 | 7.295101519238961 |
| 2026-01-30T15:12:00+08:00 | 7.3035212267499645 |
| 2026-01-30T15:12:50+08:00 | 8.524591793269913 |
| 2026-01-30T15:48:05+08:00 | 8.574002555729093 |
| 2026-01-30T15:54:58+08:00 | 8.715987505324435 |
| 2026-01-30T16:07:31+08:00 | 8.794050830611955 |
| 2026-01-30T16:08:06+08:00 | 8.86889109754366 |
| 2026-01-30T16:09:37+08:00 | 10.318557432912112 |
| 2026-01-30T17:10:49+08:00 | 10.32348431066307 |
| 2026-01-30T17:11:38+08:00 | 10.382890813573761 |
| 2026-01-30T17:13:18+08:00 | 11.665014908419707 |
| 2026-01-30T18:09:41+08:00 | 11.665142694874344 |
| 2026-01-30T18:11:29+08:00 | 13.5109470396138 |
| 2026-01-30T18:11:38+08:00 | 14.078886837995173 |
| 2026-01-30T18:12:53+08:00 | 14.08595768848502 |
| 2026-01-30T18:13:39+08:00 | 14.3061053528326 |
| 2026-01-30T18:15:00+08:00 | 14.821510719863694 |
| 2026-01-30T18:19:43+08:00 | 15.703251455345733 |
| 2026-01-30T19:58:36+08:00 | 15.733891807468408 |
| 2026-01-30T19:58:49+08:00 | 15.776487292347012 |
| 2026-01-30T19:59:37+08:00 | 15.938335936390743 |
| 2026-01-30T20:00:38+08:00 | 16.553130768138576 |
| 2026-01-30T20:03:55+08:00 | 16.579440579298595 |
| 2026-01-30T20:05:33+08:00 | 17.013914525060343 |
| 2026-01-30T21:21:30+08:00 | 17.05463580860429 |
| 2026-01-30T21:22:26+08:00 | 17.401079085616924 |
| 2026-01-30T22:03:34+08:00 | 17.419679114013913 |
| 2026-01-30T22:05:55+08:00 | 17.933664631549057 |
| 2026-01-31T10:34:12+08:00 | 17.621411330398978 |
| 2026-01-31T10:34:24+08:00 | 17.621539116853615 |
| 2026-01-31T10:34:45+08:00 | 17.621539116853615 |
| 2026-01-31T10:35:22+08:00 | 18.124080647451372 |
| 2026-01-31T10:35:32+08:00 | 20.489549907709783 |
| 2026-01-31T10:35:40+08:00 | 20.565625443702967 |
| 2026-01-31T10:36:13+08:00 | 20.57012636660514 |
| 2026-01-31T10:36:26+08:00 | 20.841317620332244 |
| 2026-01-31T10:36:37+08:00 | 20.846187704103365 |
| 2026-01-31T10:37:07+08:00 | 20.88141417009797 |
| 2026-01-31T10:37:32+08:00 | 21.232116995598467 |
| 2026-01-31T11:08:54+08:00 | 21.233210279710352 |
| 2026-01-31T11:09:24+08:00 | 21.24509441999148 |
| 2026-01-31T11:12:41+08:00 | 21.412636660513986 |
| 2026-01-31T13:32:18+08:00 | 21.41587391736476 |
| 2026-01-31T13:33:42+08:00 | 21.44049410762459 |
| 2026-01-31T13:35:54+08:00 | 21.53846372284538 |
| 2026-01-31T13:36:03+08:00 | 21.54397273888968 |
| 2026-01-31T13:36:31+08:00 | 21.707255430924324 |
| 2026-01-31T16:26:40+08:00 | 21.707511003833595 |
| 2026-01-31T16:28:16+08:00 | 21.709058639784182 |
| 2026-01-31T16:31:10+08:00 | 21.768763311089025 |
| 2026-01-31T16:33:43+08:00 | 22.602214965213687 |
| 2026-01-31T16:34:01+08:00 | 22.89612381087605 |
| 2026-01-31T18:30:56+08:00 | 22.897614652846798 |
| 2026-01-31T18:32:51+08:00 | 22.919622320034076 |
| 2026-01-31T18:35:31+08:00 | 23.388172653698707 |
| 2026-01-31T18:35:55+08:00 | 23.53867670026977 |
| 2026-01-31T20:25:32+08:00 | 23.53931563254295 |
| 2026-01-31T20:28:50+08:00 | 23.57742439301434 |
| 2026-01-31T20:29:44+08:00 | 23.607241232429363 |
| 2026-01-31T20:30:04+08:00 | 23.764844526480193 |
| 2026-01-31T21:25:31+08:00 | 23.788627005537414 |
| 2026-01-31T21:26:16+08:00 | 24.14784892801363 |
| 2026-02-01T10:25:33+08:00 | 24.148090302427942 |
| 2026-02-01T10:30:43+08:00 | 24.15418145676558 |
| 2026-02-01T10:31:50+08:00 | 24.698679539968765 |
| 2026-02-01T10:34:45+08:00 | 25.88567371858583 |
| 2026-02-01T10:35:08+08:00 | 25.986483032798525 |
| 2026-02-01T13:30:15+08:00 | 25.98720715604146 |
| 2026-02-01T13:30:45+08:00 | 25.987718301860003 |
| 2026-02-01T13:31:10+08:00 | 25.988470822092857 |
| 2026-02-01T13:31:39+08:00 | 26.06065597046713 |
| 2026-02-01T13:32:15+08:00 | 26.10096549765725 |
| 2026-02-01T13:32:40+08:00 | 26.128524776373705 |
| 2026-02-01T13:36:50+08:00 | 26.484906999858016 |
| 2026-02-01T13:37:11+08:00 | 26.74331960812154 |
| 2026-02-01T13:37:29+08:00 | 26.95771688201051 |
| 2026-02-01T16:32:10+08:00 | 26.96159307113446 |
| 2026-02-01T16:38:46+08:00 | 27.10942780065313 |
| 2026-02-01T16:40:05+08:00 | 27.109612381087604 |
| 2026-02-01T16:40:14+08:00 | 27.109924747976713 |
| 2026-02-01T16:41:10+08:00 | 27.383955700695726 |
| 2026-02-01T16:41:33+08:00 | 27.852506034360356 |
| 2026-02-01T19:41:08+08:00 | 27.852633820814994 |
| 2026-02-01T19:41:20+08:00 | 27.85276160726963 |
| 2026-02-01T19:43:26+08:00 | 27.855899474655686 |
| 2026-02-01T19:46:10+08:00 | 28.410947039613802 |
| 2026-02-01T19:47:02+08:00 | 29.63627715462161 |
| 2026-02-01T19:47:25+08:00 | 29.964262388186853 |
| 2026-02-01T21:36:22+08:00 | 29.97376118131478 |
| 2026-02-01T21:36:45+08:00 | 30.0524918358654 |
| 2026-02-01T21:37:24+08:00 | 30.64598892517393 |
| 2026-02-01T21:37:42+08:00 | 31.110279710350703 |
| 2026-02-02T08:50:40+08:00 | 31.11036490132046 |
| 2026-02-02T08:57:30+08:00 | 31.835112878034927 |
| 2026-02-02T08:58:22+08:00 | 31.835112878034927 |
| 2026-02-02T08:59:27+08:00 | 32.43144966633537 |
| 2026-02-02T08:59:45+08:00 | 35.72266079795542 |
| 2026-02-02T09:00:12+08:00 | 35.731463864830324 |
| 2026-02-02T09:03:04+08:00 | 36.198551753514124 |
| 2026-02-02T09:07:59+08:00 | 36.204060769558424 |
| 2026-02-02T09:08:23+08:00 | 36.28171233849212 |
| 2026-02-02T09:09:46+08:00 | 37.61495101519239 |
| 2026-02-02T10:13:05+08:00 | 37.700141984949596 |
| 2026-02-02T10:13:28+08:00 | 37.70026977140423 |
| 2026-02-02T10:13:37+08:00 | 37.69474655686497 |
| 2026-02-02T10:14:37+08:00 | 38.14330540962658 |
| 2026-02-02T10:15:49+08:00 | 38.3243504188556 |
| 2026-02-02T10:17:43+08:00 | 40.70685787306545 |
| 2026-02-02T10:17:55+08:00 | 40.71250887405935 |
| 2026-02-02T11:11:22+08:00 | 40.71257986653415 |
| 2026-02-02T11:11:31+08:00 | 40.712693454493824 |
| 2026-02-02T11:12:21+08:00 | 40.793979838137155 |
| 2026-02-02T11:14:23+08:00 | 41.6450518245066 |
| 2026-02-02T11:15:54+08:00 | 44.19652136873491 |
| 2026-02-02T12:25:16+08:00 | 44.20607695584268 |
| 2026-02-02T12:25:44+08:00 | 44.37645889535709 |
| 2026-02-02T12:26:14+08:00 | 44.448786028680956 |
| 2026-02-02T12:30:47+08:00 | 44.720389038761894 |
| 2026-02-02T12:31:48+08:00 | 46.400070992474795 |
| 2026-02-02T12:32:26+08:00 | 46.423583700127786 |
| 2026-02-02T13:42:56+08:00 | 46.432202186568226 |
| 2026-02-02T13:43:38+08:00 | 46.46196223200341 |
| 2026-02-02T13:44:52+08:00 | 46.64312082919211 |
| 2026-02-02T13:45:54+08:00 | 47.9238250745421 |
| 2026-02-02T13:52:09+08:00 | 47.91855743291211 |
| 2026-02-02T14:08:48+08:00 | 47.940366321169954 |
| 2026-02-02T14:09:56+08:00 | 47.94039471815987 |
| 2026-02-02T14:10:14+08:00 | 48.13437455629703 |
| 2026-02-02T14:11:11+08:00 | 48.98770410336504 |
| 2026-02-02T15:07:24+08:00 | 49.172980264092004 |
| 2026-02-02T15:09:22+08:00 | 49.20079511571773 |
| 2026-02-02T15:10:01+08:00 | 49.20177481186994 |
| 2026-02-02T15:10:40+08:00 | 49.30437313644754 |
| 2026-02-02T15:12:31+08:00 | 50.433153485730514 |
| 2026-02-02T16:18:07+08:00 | 50.472511713758344 |
| 2026-02-02T16:19:15+08:00 | 50.47539400823513 |
| 2026-02-02T16:19:20+08:00 | 50.48070424534999 |
| 2026-02-02T16:19:23+08:00 | 50.48083203180463 |
| 2026-02-02T16:20:52+08:00 | 50.60181740735482 |
| 2026-02-02T16:21:49+08:00 | 51.97623171943774 |
| 2026-02-02T16:23:16+08:00 | 52.54417151781911 |
| 2026-02-02T17:16:22+08:00 | 52.57682805622604 |
| 2026-02-02T17:17:44+08:00 | 52.593852051682525 |
| 2026-02-02T17:17:49+08:00 | 52.59876473093852 |
| 2026-02-02T17:17:53+08:00 | 52.60708504898481 |
| 2026-02-02T17:17:58+08:00 | 52.61455345733352 |
| 2026-02-02T17:19:41+08:00 | 53.55165412466278 |
| 2026-02-02T17:21:09+08:00 | 55.86801079085617 |
| 2026-02-02T17:22:14+08:00 | 69.29268777509584 |
| 2026-02-02T17:23:35+08:00 | 70.941402811302 |
| 2026-02-02T17:56:57+08:00 | 70.94144540678688 |
| 2026-02-02T18:13:13+08:00 | 70.95956268635524 |
| 2026-02-02T18:14:05+08:00 | 81.0404941076246 |
| 2026-02-02T18:15:25+08:00 | 83.79930427374698 |
| 2026-02-02T18:16:01+08:00 | 93.2469828198211 |
| 2026-02-02T18:17:52+08:00 | 94.69216243078233 |
| 2026-02-02T18:23:50+08:00 | 95.11811727956837 |
| 2026-02-02T20:49:45+08:00 | 95.12970325145534 |
| 2026-02-02T20:50:19+08:00 | 95.14478205310238 |
| 2026-02-02T20:52:56+08:00 | 97.57235553031379 |
| 2026-02-02T20:53:44+08:00 | 103.6876473093852 |
| 2026-02-02T20:54:13+08:00 | 109.61267925599887 |
| 2026-02-02T21:39:46+08:00 | 110.65976146528467 |
| 2026-02-02T21:40:23+08:00 | 118.16508590089451 |
| 2026-02-03T07:50:24+08:00 | 118.15909413602158 |
| 2026-02-03T07:52:55+08:00 | 128.63190401817408 |
| 2026-02-03T07:54:06+08:00 | 130.29169388044866 |
| 2026-02-03T07:54:10+08:00 | 133.7305693596479 |
| 2026-02-03T07:55:31+08:00 | 133.7305693596479 |
| 2026-02-03T09:12:50+08:00 | 133.73096691750675 |
| 2026-02-03T09:13:11+08:00 | 133.7310947039614 |
| 2026-02-03T09:13:45+08:00 | 139.14773534005394 |
| 2026-02-03T09:14:02+08:00 | 140.72267499645037 |
| 2026-02-03T09:16:29+08:00 | 140.94456907567798 |
| 2026-02-03T09:18:34+08:00 | 183.62808462302996 |
| 2026-02-03T09:18:55+08:00 | 193.27738179752947 |
| 2026-02-03T09:23:50+08:00 | 197.95152633820814 |
| 2026-02-03T09:28:36+08:00 | 200.22328553173364 |
| 2026-02-03T09:59:24+08:00 | 200.2232997302286 |
| 2026-02-03T10:01:51+08:00 | 200.2482748828624 |
| 2026-02-03T10:02:31+08:00 | 200.2483458753372 |
| 2026-02-03T10:07:12+08:00 | 201.76738605707794 |
| 2026-02-03T10:07:58+08:00 | 216.034033792418 |
| 2026-02-03T10:52:46+08:00 | 216.03416157887264 |
| 2026-02-03T11:12:42+08:00 | 216.67786454635808 |
| 2026-02-03T11:13:05+08:00 | 217.63426096833734 |
| 2026-02-03T11:13:18+08:00 | 223.79072838279143 |
| 2026-02-03T11:14:18+08:00 | 223.79128212409483 |
| 2026-02-03T11:51:21+08:00 | 224.17190117847508 |
| 2026-02-03T11:51:26+08:00 | 224.24060769558426 |
| 2026-02-03T11:51:30+08:00 | 224.24439869373848 |
| 2026-02-03T12:00:15+08:00 | 224.26211841544796 |
| 2026-02-03T12:05:28+08:00 | 224.27218514837426 |
| 2026-02-03T12:05:57+08:00 | 225.1040749680534 |
| 2026-02-03T12:07:03+08:00 | 228.71901178475082 |
| 2026-02-03T13:44:09+08:00 | 228.75618344455486 |
| 2026-02-03T13:44:14+08:00 | 228.77955416725828 |
| 2026-02-03T13:44:18+08:00 | 228.816143688769 |
| 2026-02-03T13:44:28+08:00 | 228.93962799943205 |
| 2026-02-03T13:44:32+08:00 | 228.95631123100952 |
| 2026-02-03T13:44:44+08:00 | 228.96872071560415 |
| 2026-02-03T13:46:00+08:00 | 228.97641629987223 |
| 2026-02-03T13:47:20+08:00 | 229.55359931847224 |
| 2026-02-03T13:47:34+08:00 | 234.48047706943063 |
| 2026-02-03T13:48:00+08:00 | 234.49938946471673 |
| 2026-02-03T13:48:06+08:00 | 235.19795541672582 |
| 2026-02-03T13:53:19+08:00 | 240.59338350134885 |
| 2026-02-03T14:09:16+08:00 | 240.68166974300723 |
| 2026-02-03T14:09:49+08:00 | 241.6906289933267 |
| 2026-02-03T14:10:18+08:00 | 246.6473235837001 |
| 2026-02-03T14:11:00+08:00 | 246.65002129774243 |
| 2026-02-03T14:15:28+08:00 | 249.20709924747976 |
| 2026-02-03T14:17:10+08:00 | 249.21952293056935 |
| 2026-02-03T14:44:20+08:00 | 250.20874627289507 |
| 2026-02-03T15:20:19+08:00 | 250.23489990061054 |
| 2026-02-03T15:20:35+08:00 | 251.06539826778362 |
| 2026-02-03T15:21:03+08:00 | 251.199645037626 |
| 2026-02-03T15:21:08+08:00 | 251.18723555303137 |
| 2026-02-03T15:21:13+08:00 | 251.1830895925032 |
| 2026-02-03T15:22:00+08:00 | 255.4114013914525 |
| 2026-02-03T15:39:04+08:00 | 255.42863836433338 |
| 2026-02-03T15:39:20+08:00 | 257.55841260826355 |
| 2026-02-03T16:05:24+08:00 | 257.5584977992333 |
| 2026-02-03T16:05:27+08:00 | 257.5589095555871 |
| 2026-02-03T16:05:49+08:00 | 258.3511429788442 |
| 2026-02-03T16:06:18+08:00 | 264.65243504188555 |
| 2026-02-03T16:45:15+08:00 | 264.6542098537555 |
| 2026-02-03T16:45:23+08:00 | 264.65359931847223 |
| 2026-02-03T17:26:07+08:00 | 266.5532017606134 |
| 2026-02-03T17:26:41+08:00 | 275.5152917790714 |
| 2026-02-03T17:26:59+08:00 | 276.06903308249326 |
| 2026-02-03T18:03:15+08:00 | 276.0691608689479 |
| 2026-02-03T18:03:52+08:00 | 350.8952293056936 |
| 2026-02-03T18:05:03+08:00 | 352.05352832599743 |
| 2026-02-03T18:05:26+08:00 | 358.5521794689763 |
| 2026-02-03T18:29:40+08:00 | 361.1321169955985 |
| 2026-02-03T20:15:32+08:00 | 362.42355530313785 |
| 2026-02-03T20:18:14+08:00 | 368.99745846940226 |
| 2026-02-03T20:18:44+08:00 | 374.431222490416 |
| 2026-02-03T21:48:20+08:00 | 375.11756353826496 |
| 2026-02-03T21:48:30+08:00 | 380.92900752520234 |
| 2026-02-03T21:48:52+08:00 | 380.9294334800511 |
| 2026-02-04T08:43:11+08:00 | 380.93812295896635 |
| 2026-02-04T08:43:18+08:00 | 380.9445974726679 |
| 2026-02-04T08:49:43+08:00 | 381.75775947749537 |
| 2026-02-04T08:50:11+08:00 | 382.70437313644754 |
| 2026-02-04T08:50:22+08:00 | 387.7788442425103 |
| 2026-02-04T08:53:43+08:00 | 387.7788442425103 |
| 2026-02-04T08:53:54+08:00 | 394.7574045151214 |
| 2026-02-04T08:54:07+08:00 | 437.0362629561267 |
| 2026-02-04T08:54:33+08:00 | 437.0378105920772 |
| 2026-02-04T09:04:21+08:00 | 439.2409200624734 |
| 2026-02-04T09:05:34+08:00 | 442.9666051398552 |
| 2026-02-04T09:08:29+08:00 | 444.11668323157744 |
| 2026-02-04T09:08:35+08:00 | 461.0640068152776 |
| 2026-02-04T10:03:40+08:00 | 461.06412040323727 |
| 2026-02-04T10:04:39+08:00 | 461.8727246911827 |
| 2026-02-04T10:09:19+08:00 | 487.292290217237 |
| 2026-02-04T10:22:24+08:00 | 487.29240380519667 |
| 2026-02-04T10:23:37+08:00 | 494.9595910833452 |
| 2026-02-04T11:07:51+08:00 | 495.23829334090584 |
| 2026-02-04T11:28:50+08:00 | 520.3696294192815 |
| 2026-02-04T17:36:42+08:00 | 525.47 |
| Time | Multiple |
|---|
| Time | Broker | Margin funds |
|---|
Using the actual oversubscription ratio 707.3x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.567, Pool B α=0.667) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier
| Lots | Subscription Amount (HKD) | Actual Expected Lots | Predicted Expected Lots | Error |
|---|
Montage Tech Allotment Prediction MatrixRows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates guaranteed allotment (≥1 lot)
Mechanism B
Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).
α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].
The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").
Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier
Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.
This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Montage Tech (06809): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 10,897 allotment-tier records across 356 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation).
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.
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