Margin dynamics Margin multiple65.93x Margin funds105.1100M TradeGo forecast multiple85.71x
Rank Broker Margin funds
1 富途证券富途 59.0100M
2 辉立证券辉立 34.0100M
3 老虎国际老虎 6.6100M
4 华泰国际华泰 3.2100M
5 华盛证券华盛 880010K
6 盈立证券盈立 515810K
7 长桥证券长桥 369510K
8 TradeGo MarketsTradeGo 258610K
9 信诚证券信诚 100010K
Margin multiple
TimeMultiple
2025-12-31T06:00:00+08:000
2025-12-31T10:04:27+08:000.016379039849388138
2025-12-31T10:05:20+08:000.01644179479133982
2025-12-31T10:06:49+08:000.06664574835268278
2025-12-31T11:04:37+08:000.09890178851584562
2025-12-31T11:06:46+08:000.09965484781926577
2025-12-31T11:07:25+08:000.10404769375588327
2025-12-31T11:08:23+08:000.6060872293693128
2025-12-31T12:03:05+08:000.6086601819893317
2025-12-31T12:04:36+08:000.6321932852212112
2025-12-31T12:06:14+08:000.6471289614057107
2025-12-31T12:07:55+08:001.7076874803890807
2025-12-31T13:43:39+08:001.7080640100407907
2025-12-31T13:43:42+08:001.7242547850643237
2025-12-31T13:43:45+08:001.7464072795732664
2025-12-31T13:43:48+08:002.104110448697835
2025-12-31T14:23:29+08:002.1166614370881707
2025-12-31T14:23:40+08:002.1169124568559776
2025-12-31T14:23:43+08:002.135676184499529
2025-12-31T14:23:46+08:002.1395669909005335
2025-12-31T14:23:50+08:002.29645434577973
2025-12-31T14:31:55+08:002.434703482899278
2025-12-31T15:28:53+08:002.4370254157514903
2025-12-31T15:28:59+08:002.495889551302165
2025-12-31T15:29:04+08:002.5228114213994353
2025-12-31T15:29:10+08:003.150360840916222
2025-12-31T16:21:48+08:003.7779102604330093
2025-12-31T16:21:59+08:003.786507687480389
2025-12-31T16:22:01+08:003.7957954188892375
2025-12-31T16:22:05+08:003.816379039849388
2025-12-31T16:22:08+08:003.9544399121430813
2025-12-31T16:34:55+08:003.955067461562598
2025-12-31T17:01:15+08:003.956197050517728
2025-12-31T17:03:59+08:003.9780357703169122
2025-12-31T17:05:53+08:004.229055538123627
2025-12-31T18:08:08+08:004.266708503294635
2025-12-31T18:08:58+08:004.269595230624412
2025-12-31T18:09:50+08:004.269657985566363
2025-12-31T18:10:52+08:004.275996234703483
2025-12-31T18:14:10+08:004.784122999686225
2025-12-31T18:19:36+08:004.834326953247568
2025-12-31T19:58:35+08:004.835017257609037
2025-12-31T19:59:26+08:004.889112017571383
2025-12-31T20:00:08+08:004.914213994352055
2025-12-31T20:06:52+08:004.919422654534045
2025-12-31T20:07:51+08:004.9289614057107
2025-12-31T20:08:22+08:004.954063382491372
2025-12-31T21:37:32+08:004.95927204267336
2025-12-31T21:38:49+08:004.946721054283024
2025-12-31T22:13:15+08:004.96297458424851
2025-12-31T22:13:50+08:004.969312833385629
2025-12-31T22:14:16+08:005.314465014119862
2026-01-01T09:20:17+08:005.319422654534044
2026-01-01T09:22:21+08:005.332036397866332
2026-01-01T09:23:19+08:005.345779730153749
2026-01-01T09:26:27+08:005.375525572638845
2026-01-01T09:26:58+08:005.375525572638845
2026-01-01T09:27:52+08:005.494759962347035
2026-01-01T09:28:30+08:005.513586444932538
2026-01-01T10:07:30+08:005.513774709758393
2026-01-01T10:08:01+08:005.515343583307185
2026-01-01T10:08:28+08:005.471415123941011
2026-01-01T13:16:53+08:005.473235017257609
2026-01-01T13:18:42+08:005.480138060872294
2026-01-01T13:20:30+08:005.520175713837465
2026-01-01T13:21:49+08:005.507624725447129
2026-01-01T13:22:25+08:005.620583620960151
2026-01-01T13:22:57+08:005.708440539692501
2026-01-01T16:21:27+08:005.708754314402259
2026-01-01T16:22:35+08:005.712331346093505
2026-01-01T16:24:04+08:005.714653278945717
2026-01-01T16:25:11+08:005.720928773140884
2026-01-01T16:26:02+08:005.789959209287732
2026-01-01T18:21:33+08:005.810668340131786
2026-01-01T18:22:12+08:005.835770316912457
2026-01-01T18:22:43+08:005.85459679949796
2026-01-01T20:36:49+08:005.855098839033574
2026-01-01T20:37:46+08:005.855412613743332
2026-01-01T20:39:20+08:005.897458424850957
2026-01-01T20:40:26+08:005.91628490743646
2026-01-01T20:41:06+08:005.966488860997804
2026-01-01T22:13:29+08:005.968057734546596
2026-01-01T22:13:43+08:005.9689990586758706
2026-01-01T22:15:20+08:005.959962347034829
2026-01-01T22:16:06+08:005.991339818010668
2026-01-01T22:16:38+08:005.9411358644493255
2026-01-02T08:52:27+08:005.9382491371195485
2026-01-02T08:53:51+08:005.936868528396611
2026-01-02T08:56:25+08:005.936617508628805
2026-01-02T08:56:28+08:005.964731722623156
2026-01-02T08:58:25+08:006.07141512394101
2026-01-02T09:01:06+08:006.07141512394101
2026-01-02T09:03:29+08:006.0891120175713835
2026-01-02T09:04:04+08:006.090429871352369
2026-01-02T09:05:06+08:006.091998744901161
2026-01-02T09:06:03+08:006.00414182616881
2026-01-02T10:06:30+08:006.004643865704424
2026-01-02T10:06:33+08:006.004894885472231
2026-01-02T10:08:05+08:006.035770316912457
2026-01-02T10:08:08+08:006.037088170693442
2026-01-02T10:08:10+08:006.0391590837778475
2026-01-02T10:08:13+08:006.29645434577973
2026-01-02T11:18:42+08:006.344336366488861
2026-01-02T11:19:50+08:006.345528710385943
2026-01-02T11:22:07+08:006.345591465327894
2026-01-02T11:23:00+08:006.349356761844995
2026-01-02T11:23:45+08:006.86394728584876
2026-01-02T12:12:17+08:006.865641669281456
2026-01-02T12:13:33+08:006.884405396925008
2026-01-02T12:14:31+08:006.886476310009413
2026-01-02T12:15:37+08:007.639535613429557
2026-01-02T13:51:00+08:007.638343269532475
2026-01-02T13:52:26+08:007.687668653906496
2026-01-02T13:53:19+08:007.869657985566364
2026-01-02T13:54:21+08:007.873737056793223
2026-01-02T14:05:52+08:007.8803890806401
2026-01-02T14:07:00+08:007.941449639159083
2026-01-02T14:10:16+08:007.943081267649827
2026-01-02T14:11:27+08:008.118795105114527
2026-01-02T14:13:00+08:008.79215563225604
2026-01-02T15:28:07+08:008.793159711327267
2026-01-02T15:29:29+08:008.823658613115782
2026-01-02T15:30:22+08:008.826859115155319
2026-01-02T15:31:07+08:009.448133040476938
2026-01-02T15:32:04+08:009.474741135864448
2026-01-02T16:09:22+08:009.483213053027926
2026-01-02T16:09:54+08:009.494069657985566
2026-01-02T16:10:56+08:009.515469093191088
2026-01-02T16:11:44+08:009.703733919046124
2026-01-02T17:31:23+08:009.704800753059303
2026-01-02T17:32:08+08:009.724380294948228
2026-01-02T17:32:36+08:009.732601192343896
2026-01-02T17:33:06+08:009.845560087856919
2026-01-02T17:33:47+08:0011.414433636648885
2026-01-02T18:08:06+08:0011.41832444304989
2026-01-02T18:09:03+08:0011.419265767179166
2026-01-02T18:09:37+08:0011.425101976780672
2026-01-02T18:10:29+08:0011.556887354879196
2026-01-02T18:18:50+08:0011.548729212425478
2026-01-02T20:52:50+08:0011.54879196736743
2026-01-02T20:53:46+08:0011.54577973015375
2026-01-02T20:54:35+08:0011.551302165045497
2026-01-02T21:06:33+08:0011.836460621273925
2026-01-02T21:07:52+08:0011.838092249764669
2026-01-02T21:09:44+08:0011.969877627863195
2026-01-02T21:10:19+08:0012.051459052400377
2026-01-02T21:10:57+08:0012.440539692500785
2026-01-02T22:23:33+08:0012.442296830875431
2026-01-02T22:24:06+08:0012.47888296203326
2026-01-02T22:24:47+08:0012.616943834326953
2026-01-03T08:41:34+08:0012.616881079385001
2026-01-03T08:44:41+08:0012.615877000313775
2026-01-03T08:45:29+08:0012.589268904926262
2026-01-03T08:46:08+08:0012.589268904926262
2026-01-03T08:46:49+08:0012.294320677753372
2026-01-03T10:46:01+08:0012.311013492312519
2026-01-03T10:47:06+08:0012.311452776906181
2026-01-03T10:47:13+08:0012.319359899592094
2026-01-03T10:48:04+08:0012.41531220583621
2026-01-03T10:48:49+08:0012.496893630373393
2026-01-03T10:49:15+08:0012.521995607154063
2026-01-03T13:35:50+08:0012.54615625980546
2026-01-03T13:36:42+08:0012.54992155632256
2026-01-03T13:37:49+08:0012.630812676498275
2026-01-03T13:39:06+08:0013.095199246940696
2026-01-03T13:39:40+08:0013.164229683087543
2026-01-03T16:50:14+08:0013.164543457797302
2026-01-03T16:50:33+08:0013.174144963915909
2026-01-03T16:52:03+08:0013.300470662064638
2026-01-03T16:53:20+08:0013.488735487919673
2026-01-03T16:53:45+08:0013.601694383432696
2026-01-03T19:04:03+08:0013.603639786633197
2026-01-03T19:04:25+08:0013.601380608722938
2026-01-03T19:05:40+08:0013.672230938186383
2026-01-03T19:06:55+08:0014.067587072481958
2026-01-03T19:07:15+08:0014.287229369312833
2026-01-03T21:48:51+08:0014.287292124254785
2026-01-03T21:49:35+08:0014.29011609664261
2026-01-03T21:50:24+08:0014.307499215563226
2026-01-03T21:51:04+08:0014.320050203953562
2026-01-03T21:51:30+08:0014.3514276749294
2026-01-03T22:13:15+08:0014.351866959523063
2026-01-03T22:13:42+08:0014.903859428930028
2026-01-03T22:14:26+08:0015.04192030122372
2026-01-04T08:18:14+08:0015.004016316284908
2026-01-04T08:18:18+08:0015.005898964543459
2026-01-04T08:18:24+08:0015.00596171948541
2026-01-04T08:18:36+08:0015.00294948227173
2026-01-04T08:18:41+08:0015.000313774709758
2026-01-04T08:18:46+08:0014.768120489488547
2026-01-04T12:34:15+08:0014.893630373391904
2026-01-04T12:38:32+08:0014.923501725760904
2026-01-04T12:38:37+08:0014.92450580483213
2026-01-04T12:38:41+08:0014.926890492626294
2026-01-04T12:38:46+08:0014.926702227800439
2026-01-04T12:39:04+08:0014.928333856291182
2026-01-04T12:39:08+08:0014.93567618449953
2026-01-04T12:39:11+08:0014.927957326639472
2026-01-04T12:39:15+08:0014.988955130216505
2026-01-04T12:39:32+08:0015.070536554753687
2026-01-04T12:39:36+08:0014.963853153435833
2026-01-04T12:39:40+08:0015.026608095387513
2026-01-04T12:39:44+08:0015.014057106997177
2026-01-04T12:40:06+08:0015.039284593661751
2026-01-04T12:40:10+08:0015.027549419516786
2026-01-04T12:40:14+08:0015.037088170693442
2026-01-04T15:02:29+08:0015.03777847505491
2026-01-04T15:02:34+08:0015.056604957640415
2026-01-04T15:02:38+08:0015.057358016943834
2026-01-04T15:02:42+08:0015.103106369626609
2026-01-04T15:02:46+08:0015.253718230310637
2026-01-04T15:02:54+08:0015.253780985252588
2026-01-04T15:07:29+08:0015.504800753059303
2026-01-04T15:08:40+08:0015.577031691245686
2026-01-04T15:09:29+08:0015.558016943834327
2026-01-04T19:08:31+08:0015.559083777847505
2026-01-04T19:08:47+08:0015.558770003137747
2026-01-04T19:08:56+08:0015.55920928773141
2026-01-04T19:09:09+08:0015.530718544085346
2026-01-04T19:14:52+08:0015.574647003451522
2026-01-04T19:14:57+08:0015.675054910574207
2026-01-04T19:15:02+08:0015.731534358330718
2026-01-04T19:15:07+08:0015.888421713209915
2026-01-04T19:23:01+08:0015.894383432695324
2026-01-04T19:23:05+08:0015.921305302792595
2026-01-04T19:23:10+08:0015.896203326011923
2026-01-04T19:23:16+08:0015.90392218387198
2026-01-04T19:29:12+08:0015.90429871352369
2026-01-04T19:29:16+08:0015.905051772827111
2026-01-04T19:29:21+08:0015.905679322246627
2026-01-04T19:29:25+08:0015.902729839974898
2026-01-04T22:13:25+08:0015.903733919046125
2026-01-04T22:13:45+08:0015.905177282711014
2026-01-04T22:21:48+08:0015.912707875745214
2026-01-04T22:21:53+08:0016.176278631942264
2026-01-04T22:21:59+08:0016.19140257295262
2026-01-04T22:22:05+08:0016.436146846564167
2026-01-04T22:22:15+08:0016.583809224976466
2026-01-04T22:22:20+08:0016.684217132099153
2026-01-04T22:22:24+08:0016.684154377157203
2026-01-05T08:44:54+08:0016.796422968308754
2026-01-05T08:48:02+08:0016.934483840602446
2026-01-05T08:50:31+08:0016.93824913711955
2026-01-05T08:51:43+08:0016.93824913711955
2026-01-05T08:52:28+08:0016.9383118920615
2026-01-05T09:06:21+08:0016.899529337935363
2026-01-05T09:07:17+08:0016.914653278945718
2026-01-05T09:07:55+08:0016.913084405396926
2026-01-05T09:08:50+08:0017.088798242861625
2026-01-05T09:33:50+08:0017.08892375274553
2026-01-05T09:57:58+08:0017.08898650768748
2026-01-05T09:59:39+08:0017.20822089739567
2026-01-05T10:02:54+08:0017.20903671164104
2026-01-05T10:05:03+08:0017.221587700031378
2026-01-05T10:05:59+08:0017.248697834954502
2026-01-05T10:09:15+08:0017.285911515531847
2026-01-05T10:10:10+08:0018.258613115782868
2026-01-05T11:06:35+08:0018.266394728584878
2026-01-05T11:07:22+08:0018.660244744273612
2026-01-05T11:08:03+08:0019.952996548478193
2026-01-05T11:08:49+08:0020.00106683401318
2026-01-05T11:09:27+08:0020.00119234389708
2026-01-05T11:09:30+08:0020.001694383432696
2026-01-05T11:09:34+08:0020.03150298085974
2026-01-05T11:31:22+08:0020.05196109193599
2026-01-05T12:01:27+08:0020.065516159397554
2026-01-05T12:07:38+08:0020.074113586444934
2026-01-05T12:08:22+08:0020.107561970505177
2026-01-05T12:09:12+08:0020.942202698462506
2026-01-05T13:43:49+08:0020.942641983056166
2026-01-05T13:43:58+08:0020.967618449952933
2026-01-05T13:44:01+08:0021.039723878255412
2026-01-05T13:44:05+08:0021.02510197678067
2026-01-05T13:44:08+08:0021.02911829306558
2026-01-05T13:44:11+08:0021.02905553812363
2026-01-05T13:45:28+08:0021.064763100094133
2026-01-05T13:47:04+08:0021.07599623470348
2026-01-05T13:47:35+08:0021.35211797929087
2026-01-05T13:47:52+08:0021.361091935989958
2026-01-05T13:48:33+08:0021.366175086288045
2026-01-05T14:01:52+08:0021.39322246626922
2026-01-05T14:02:39+08:0021.393410731095074
2026-01-05T14:03:42+08:0021.533479761531222
2026-01-05T14:06:50+08:0022.167304675243177
2026-01-05T14:08:39+08:0022.167869469720742
2026-01-05T14:09:22+08:0022.201380608722936
2026-01-05T14:39:10+08:0022.20853467210543
2026-01-05T15:10:14+08:0022.21499843112645
2026-01-05T15:10:52+08:0022.242045811107626
2026-01-05T15:11:25+08:0023.591277063068716
2026-01-05T15:11:58+08:0023.592281142139942
2026-01-05T15:12:06+08:0023.593473486037027
2026-01-05T15:12:41+08:0023.615877000313773
2026-01-05T15:14:27+08:0023.678004392845935
2026-01-05T16:11:26+08:0023.74741135864449
2026-01-05T16:12:15+08:0024.3122058362096
2026-01-05T16:38:52+08:0024.29206149984311
2026-01-05T16:53:58+08:0024.54308126764983
2026-01-05T17:12:20+08:0024.54395983683715
2026-01-05T17:13:17+08:0024.607342328208347
2026-01-05T17:14:00+08:0025.291371195481645
2026-01-05T18:31:39+08:0033.13573893944148
2026-01-05T18:31:45+08:0033.15550674615626
2026-01-05T18:32:14+08:0033.15513021650455
2026-01-05T18:32:28+08:0033.1794791339818
2026-01-05T18:32:56+08:0033.694069657985565
2026-01-05T18:33:25+08:0033.693755883275806
2026-01-05T18:54:32+08:0033.7607781612802
2026-01-05T20:11:04+08:0033.82585503608409
2026-01-05T20:11:49+08:0034.27769061813618
2026-01-05T20:12:18+08:0034.69814872921243
2026-01-05T22:18:03+08:0034.80313774709759
2026-01-05T22:18:37+08:0035.84486978349545
2026-01-05T22:19:01+08:0036.70461248823345
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TradeGo forecast multiple
TimeMultiple
Broker margin funds trend
TimeBrokerMargin funds
Prediction Model 1-Lot Expected Lots— Lots for expected 1-lot allotment—
Multiple derivation
Recent first-day return
+4.6%
→
Participants
18,911
→
Avg lots
49.5
→
Oversubscription
68x
68x = 18,911 × 49.5 ÷ 13,744 margin-weighted 100% → 85.7x
1x6275.0x
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.59
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.69
This model does not support allocation strategy adjustment

Actual vs Predicted Comparison

Using the actual oversubscription ratio 101.06x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.590, Pool B α=0.690) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier

Lots Subscription Amount (HKD) Actual Expected Lots Predicted Expected Lots Error

LogoRibolife-B Allotment Prediction Matrix

Rows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates expected ≥1 lot. Non-preset multiples are interpolated from the nearest grid points.

Offering Mechanism

Mechanism B

Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).

Allocation Strategy Coefficient α

α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].

  • α → 0: Per-capita allocation — regardless of lots subscribed, every allottee receives the same number of shares. More favorable to retail (small) applications.
  • α → 1: Proportional allocation — allotted shares are proportional to lots subscribed. More favorable to large applications.
  • Historical actual α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0. α varies widely across IPOs, reflecting each issuer's allocation strategy.
Allotment Rate Definition

The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").

Expected Allotment Lots

Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier

Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.

About this page

This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Ribolife-B (06938): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 22087 allotment-tier records across 592 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation). You can override the oversubscription multiple and the allocation-method α right on the page, replacing cibo's defaults to see expected lots under your own scenario. How allotment rates and clawback work is explained in How Hong Kong IPO Allotment Rates Work.
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.

Cibo — HK IPO Allotment Forecasts, Allottee Profiling & Stock Connect