Margin dynamics Margin multiple196.16x Margin funds1404.2100M TradeGo forecast multiple262.86x
Rank Broker Margin funds
1 富途证券富途 774.7100M
2 辉立证券辉立 453.0100M
3 老虎国际老虎 48.9100M
4 华泰国际华泰 30.0100M
5 致富证券致富 21.0100M
6 华盛证券华盛 14.5100M
7 复星国际复星 13.8100M
8 盈立证券盈立 12.0100M
9 信诚证券信诚 12.0100M
Margin multiple
TimeMultiple
2026-06-30T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-30T10:28:54+08:000.001522792997946325
2026-06-30T10:28:59+08:000.002333086519789324
2026-06-30T11:20:26+08:000.005560290029198508
2026-06-30T11:20:31+08:000.007921317704913453
2026-06-30T11:20:37+08:000.009388228391008537
2026-06-30T11:20:51+08:000.7386523980497073
2026-06-30T12:14:18+08:000.7510582712806829
2026-06-30T12:19:17+08:000.7577362075469062
2026-06-30T12:22:08+08:000.7594685592142947
2026-06-30T12:23:50+08:000.7628494390812948
2026-06-30T12:27:02+08:001.163805026613951
2026-06-30T14:05:56+08:001.1662498777574428
2026-06-30T14:05:59+08:001.1681079646264967
2026-06-30T14:14:11+08:001.1713072269799802
2026-06-30T14:14:14+08:001.1812403079115383
2026-06-30T14:16:16+08:001.186926333142402
2026-06-30T14:16:18+08:001.1933527990052948
2026-06-30T14:19:57+08:001.1919557412090138
2026-06-30T14:20:00+08:001.3386468098185222
2026-06-30T14:24:45+08:001.3526173877813326
2026-06-30T14:25:00+08:001.3617401751910476
2026-06-30T14:25:03+08:001.3624945864010394
2026-06-30T14:31:02+08:001.4323055644812026
2026-06-30T15:03:45+08:001.4339540926808143
2026-06-30T15:05:41+08:001.4572989284566702
2026-06-30T15:09:10+08:001.457983486776848
2026-06-30T15:10:30+08:002.938864750834742
2026-06-30T15:17:14+08:002.94452283490968
2026-06-30T15:22:22+08:002.9584934128724907
2026-06-30T16:28:58+08:003.0445940848572906
2026-06-30T16:33:05+08:003.0583830453065843
2026-06-30T16:37:15+08:003.0626440715852414
2026-06-30T16:39:57+08:003.0804146467539364
2026-06-30T16:41:29+08:003.1768116346973274
2026-06-30T17:06:47+08:003.190055742606072
2026-06-30T17:08:31+08:003.196091032286006
2026-06-30T17:11:09+08:003.2097402869556713
2026-06-30T17:14:53+08:003.2112770505315806
2026-06-30T17:17:38+08:002.2165718995794856
2026-06-30T17:48:43+08:002.635689238463795
2026-06-30T17:48:45+08:002.915100797720002
2026-06-30T18:07:00+08:002.9532544461364365
2026-06-30T18:12:16+08:002.97275737297252
2026-06-30T18:17:48+08:002.984031629388508
2026-06-30T18:21:17+08:002.991883094203607
2026-06-30T18:24:49+08:002.992861034661004
2026-06-30T18:25:36+08:003.164699143603571
2026-06-30T18:27:20+08:003.178669721566381
2026-06-30T20:08:40+08:003.185235893208902
2026-06-30T20:12:30+08:003.200701323013733
2026-06-30T20:15:28+08:003.207798376618841
2026-06-30T20:17:28+08:003.242976291929197
2026-06-30T20:19:07+08:003.628564243702762
2026-06-30T21:59:31+08:003.630785565598849
2026-06-30T22:07:07+08:003.630911300800514
2026-06-30T22:08:53+08:003.7314994621327484
2026-06-30T22:10:42+08:003.973190460889367
2026-07-01T08:44:40+08:004.008033082328616
2026-07-01T08:44:43+08:004.06517274619651
2026-07-01T08:58:04+08:005.325318878442001
2026-07-01T09:02:37+08:005.325318878442001
2026-07-01T09:05:46+08:005.367887229494684
2026-07-01T09:10:45+08:005.368725464172453
2026-07-01T09:12:27+08:005.54821944983864
2026-07-01T09:14:21+08:005.594322357115914
2026-07-01T09:18:14+08:005.631567917964766
2026-07-01T09:20:08+08:005.659509073890387
2026-07-01T09:24:45+08:005.824585423098954
2026-07-01T10:18:09+08:005.825591304712276
2026-07-01T10:22:22+08:005.83803908967714
2026-07-01T10:26:21+08:005.867377303399041
2026-07-01T10:28:22+08:005.873049358051943
2026-07-01T11:08:58+08:005.873901563307674
2026-07-01T11:10:41+08:005.876094944047836
2026-07-01T11:16:12+08:005.887117730060493
2026-07-01T11:20:03+08:006.084102879336118
2026-07-01T12:14:00+08:006.098506545215775
2026-07-01T12:16:16+08:006.099260956425767
2026-07-01T12:18:01+08:006.1001550734153875
2026-07-01T12:19:43+08:006.106148451361433
2026-07-01T12:21:22+08:006.194163092527138
2026-07-01T14:12:09+08:006.194805739113427
2026-07-01T14:12:12+08:006.195182944718423
2026-07-01T14:15:45+08:006.195392503387865
2026-07-01T14:15:48+08:006.223766747230333
2026-07-01T14:19:00+08:006.3690607580435605
2026-07-01T14:19:02+08:006.568840022911748
2026-07-01T14:25:30+08:006.57785104569776
2026-07-01T14:25:33+08:006.5792481034940415
2026-07-01T14:31:36+08:006.660962013998519
2026-07-01T15:09:38+08:006.661590690006846
2026-07-01T15:13:07+08:006.666368627670127
2026-07-01T15:18:01+08:006.672431858505987
2026-07-01T15:19:44+08:006.833093505078305
2026-07-01T16:15:04+08:006.8335405635731155
2026-07-01T16:18:14+08:006.874306710068596
2026-07-01T16:20:47+08:006.877436119532265
2026-07-01T16:22:16+08:007.0618477486413616
2026-07-01T16:24:12+08:007.068609508375362
2026-07-01T17:02:20+08:007.096550664300982
2026-07-01T17:04:00+08:007.097053605107643
2026-07-01T17:06:14+08:007.120314617415723
2026-07-01T17:10:49+08:007.8789170007963225
2026-07-01T17:12:36+08:007.880719205353525
2026-07-01T18:02:20+08:007.88104052864667
2026-07-01T18:04:37+08:007.890442727615642
2026-07-01T18:08:48+08:007.901283896114783
2026-07-01T18:09:42+08:007.994886768465611
2026-07-01T18:19:54+08:008.055058047751436
2026-07-01T20:54:38+08:008.055560988558097
2026-07-01T20:58:38+08:008.101929336816664
2026-07-01T20:59:50+08:008.10100727867112
2026-07-01T21:01:52+08:008.416742340630632
2026-07-01T21:04:18+08:008.457424663658335
2026-07-01T22:10:24+08:008.517302560806941
2026-07-01T22:14:40+08:008.317523295938752
2026-07-02T08:45:04+08:008.339051956579445
2026-07-02T08:45:08+08:008.603556909149331
2026-07-02T08:52:28+08:0010.682378910015508
2026-07-02T08:59:01+08:0010.682378910015508
2026-07-02T09:00:52+08:0010.82208468964361
2026-07-02T09:12:59+08:0010.826192039564678
2026-07-02T09:19:12+08:0010.829209684404644
2026-07-02T09:26:48+08:0011.135402841615557
2026-07-02T09:29:48+08:0011.250953491945962
2026-07-02T09:33:23+08:0011.523379762220763
2026-07-02T09:52:06+08:0011.80696852428785
2026-07-02T10:14:35+08:0011.905321393146034
2026-07-02T10:17:01+08:0011.915226532921666
2026-07-02T10:19:26+08:0011.916455943782394
2026-07-02T10:21:46+08:0011.928051523491527
2026-07-02T10:25:50+08:0012.125036672767152
2026-07-02T11:10:00+08:0012.133698431104095
2026-07-02T11:13:57+08:0012.138364604143673
2026-07-02T11:15:26+08:0012.572849578787075
2026-07-02T11:17:11+08:0012.574148842537616
2026-07-02T11:18:44+08:0012.571173109431538
2026-07-02T12:11:34+08:0012.568798111177859
2026-07-02T12:16:44+08:0012.576761340616661
2026-07-02T12:20:14+08:0012.58927897847134
2026-07-02T12:21:37+08:0012.610234845415555
2026-07-02T12:24:08+08:0012.623688511993741
2026-07-02T14:09:38+08:0012.627055421282778
2026-07-02T14:09:41+08:0012.626412774696488
2026-07-02T14:14:56+08:0012.693164196202797
2026-07-02T14:14:59+08:0012.688581846630996
2026-07-02T14:19:00+08:0012.718660500984926
2026-07-02T14:19:02+08:0012.724863437600414
2026-07-02T14:24:00+08:0012.738345045334526
2026-07-02T14:24:03+08:0013.045697760516353
2026-07-02T14:24:05+08:0013.063803629556155
2026-07-02T14:24:08+08:0013.169980022073513
2026-07-02T14:37:11+08:0013.23379762220763
2026-07-02T15:01:08+08:0013.233588063538189
2026-07-02T15:03:47+08:0013.242487321700498
2026-07-02T15:06:32+08:0013.267634362033558
2026-07-02T15:12:05+08:0013.268304949775771
2026-07-02T15:13:32+08:0013.406613671607595
2026-07-02T16:05:26+08:0013.858184663099513
2026-07-02T16:07:25+08:0013.879908911831683
2026-07-02T16:10:32+08:0013.872602299557133
2026-07-02T16:12:06+08:0014.00392573240755
2026-07-02T16:14:21+08:0014.004554408415876
2026-07-02T17:04:38+08:0014.02411321756381
2026-07-02T17:06:23+08:0014.03802791321477
2026-07-02T17:08:39+08:0014.077788178096927
2026-07-02T17:11:26+08:0014.074938180192515
2026-07-02T17:14:19+08:0014.713393593092947
2026-07-02T17:15:19+08:0014.769275904944188
2026-07-02T17:52:10+08:0021.056035988208833
2026-07-02T18:11:29+08:0021.232526299613014
2026-07-02T18:17:23+08:0021.241579234132917
2026-07-02T18:19:24+08:0021.268933625784097
2026-07-02T18:21:44+08:0021.310328448287905
2026-07-02T18:22:34+08:0021.342279160088854
2026-07-02T18:23:56+08:0021.885734642842174
2026-07-02T20:41:42+08:0021.896883164056497
2026-07-02T20:44:19+08:0021.95184341776219
2026-07-02T20:46:41+08:0022.043336732840636
2026-07-02T20:50:05+08:0022.12831975858841
2026-07-02T20:51:51+08:0022.97493678313472
2026-07-02T21:50:36+08:0023.0376786487657
2026-07-02T22:06:56+08:0023.122074910239036
2026-07-02T22:10:13+08:0023.41538719456824
2026-07-02T22:11:52+08:0024.935386076922
2026-07-03T08:40:48+08:0025.428631302476983
2026-07-03T08:40:51+08:0026.47175847664818
2026-07-03T08:46:21+08:0026.47175847664818
2026-07-03T08:48:40+08:0030.136241076293327
2026-07-03T09:01:34+08:0030.625211304991687
2026-07-03T09:02:15+08:0030.855404518084914
2026-07-03T09:07:00+08:0031.061861719219323
2026-07-03T09:09:51+08:0031.43866217745428
2026-07-03T09:12:35+08:0031.93621034102181
2026-07-03T09:14:48+08:0032.51179815308959
2026-07-03T09:19:49+08:0033.57934589753978
2026-07-03T10:16:24+08:0033.658153927827996
2026-07-03T10:17:54+08:0033.682616409840875
2026-07-03T10:20:42+08:0035.26967406641613
2026-07-03T10:27:12+08:0035.28089244052026
2026-07-03T10:29:48+08:0035.30573212813814
2026-07-03T11:12:50+08:0035.32540270190978
2026-07-03T11:14:13+08:0035.390673242152026
2026-07-03T11:16:11+08:0035.495452576873106
2026-07-03T11:18:04+08:0035.518112854328784
2026-07-03T11:19:19+08:0035.5436510708448
2026-07-03T12:28:44+08:0035.557188560890765
2026-07-03T12:30:18+08:0035.60256499811397
2026-07-03T12:30:50+08:0036.32763799438383
2026-07-03T12:32:49+08:0036.34697327428436
2026-07-03T12:34:52+08:0036.37001075734503
2026-07-03T13:40:37+08:0036.41446513642269
2026-07-03T13:42:00+08:0036.41579234132916
2026-07-03T13:43:26+08:0036.71615976752958
2026-07-03T13:44:22+08:0036.74030092624932
2026-07-03T13:45:50+08:0036.73668254655695
2026-07-03T14:00:55+08:0036.753000181617516
2026-07-03T14:03:53+08:0037.04293158607972
2026-07-03T14:07:42+08:0037.048254376283545
2026-07-03T14:09:10+08:0037.06040877911119
2026-07-03T14:10:39+08:0037.29790860447897
2026-07-03T14:13:11+08:0037.30337110046243
2026-07-03T15:20:02+08:0037.322091674932594
2026-07-03T15:21:18+08:0037.331675491415076
2026-07-03T15:22:00+08:0038.295645370848995
2026-07-03T15:24:46+08:0038.296204193967505
2026-07-03T15:25:38+08:0038.36435267327009
2026-07-03T16:04:43+08:0038.41644895849341
2026-07-03T16:06:01+08:0038.42476145238128
2026-07-03T16:06:33+08:0039.03387865155982
2026-07-03T16:07:29+08:0039.04037497031252
2026-07-03T16:09:16+08:0039.04731834756004
2026-07-03T17:08:51+08:0039.189622654689224
2026-07-03T17:10:53+08:0039.257631428212186
2026-07-03T17:12:55+08:0039.262339512985655
2026-07-03T17:13:41+08:0039.29341007837494
2026-07-03T17:15:23+08:0040.13443887173612
2026-07-03T17:19:49+08:0041.79693764931055
2026-07-03T18:32:40+08:0058.28221964542673
2026-07-03T18:33:40+08:0058.47780773690607
2026-07-03T18:34:07+08:0058.51109962419145
2026-07-03T18:37:42+08:0058.57949957389737
2026-07-03T18:39:17+08:0058.60348705625952
2026-07-03T18:40:44+08:0058.60791572947373
2026-07-03T18:42:54+08:0058.90968021347043
2026-07-03T18:50:01+08:0059.34043504379776
2026-07-03T21:05:08+08:0059.398622501012866
2026-07-03T21:06:46+08:0059.45667025244834
2026-07-03T21:09:14+08:0059.5497003311027
2026-07-03T21:12:47+08:0059.70129507257715
2026-07-03T21:14:16+08:0060.222397630589974
2026-07-03T21:15:04+08:0060.58423559982676
2026-07-04T09:34:26+08:0060.58423559982676
2026-07-04T09:36:40+08:0060.651308344626216
2026-07-04T09:37:40+08:0060.68761787675156
2026-07-04T09:40:11+08:0060.75327959317677
2026-07-04T09:41:22+08:0060.84358540912837
2026-07-04T09:42:41+08:0062.03806982494866
2026-07-04T09:43:24+08:0062.1749814889842
2026-07-04T10:26:48+08:0062.20304838011148
2026-07-04T10:27:52+08:0062.213638078207296
2026-07-04T10:30:01+08:0062.23274982886042
2026-07-04T10:30:50+08:0062.235348356361506
2026-07-04T10:31:47+08:0062.3680688470082
2026-07-04T12:02:59+08:0062.392671034800706
2026-07-04T12:10:21+08:0062.41861439807765
2026-07-04T12:12:11+08:0062.44208496905517
2026-07-04T12:13:46+08:0062.69634948797832
2026-07-04T12:14:10+08:0062.96737870045684
2026-07-04T15:36:25+08:0063.00291985079423
2026-07-04T15:38:15+08:0063.01662498777574
2026-07-04T15:39:48+08:0063.02805292054932
2026-07-04T15:40:29+08:0063.0315176238841
2026-07-04T15:42:06+08:0063.6280613028961
2026-07-04T15:42:33+08:0064.06673745092834
2026-07-04T18:35:12+08:0064.09209404993085
2026-07-04T18:37:44+08:0064.10950139007251
2026-07-04T18:38:55+08:0064.16219841014822
2026-07-04T18:40:01+08:0064.19758588412803
2026-07-04T18:41:01+08:0064.41692395814415
2026-07-04T18:41:25+08:0064.6558208413082
2026-07-04T20:03:47+08:0064.65647745847245
2026-07-04T20:06:15+08:0064.67064362452675
2026-07-04T20:07:10+08:0064.67846714818592
2026-07-04T20:07:59+08:0064.7188980008103
2026-07-04T20:08:49+08:0065.03463306276981
2026-07-04T21:33:57+08:0065.04467790832507
2026-07-04T21:34:44+08:0065.06909847860406
2026-07-04T21:35:57+08:0065.07277274060827
2026-07-04T21:36:22+08:0065.45836069238185
2026-07-05T09:34:30+08:0065.47671803182497
2026-07-05T09:34:35+08:0065.49219743220777
2026-07-05T09:34:40+08:0065.55460400396764
2026-07-05T09:34:45+08:0065.56188267508627
2026-07-05T09:42:00+08:0065.62767012671314
2026-07-05T09:44:30+08:0065.7170538845192
2026-07-05T09:47:08+08:0066.04396540884896
2026-07-05T09:47:41+08:0068.05572863549365
2026-07-05T09:48:17+08:0068.39521367998994
2026-07-05T09:53:48+08:0068.41097249193199
2026-07-05T09:54:23+08:0068.4309504184188
2026-07-05T12:19:27+08:0068.89337654898783
2026-07-05T12:20:13+08:0069.91322874027298
2026-07-05T12:20:52+08:0070.46366951200771
2026-07-05T12:22:59+08:0070.47269450537169
2026-07-05T12:23:41+08:0070.49422316601238
2026-07-05T12:24:19+08:0070.51084815378812
2026-07-05T12:28:08+08:0070.52621578954721
2026-07-05T12:28:36+08:0070.5329076963914
2026-07-05T12:29:08+08:0070.55207532935637
2026-07-05T12:31:30+08:0070.5759231059389
2026-07-05T12:32:06+08:0070.58162310174772
2026-07-05T12:32:36+08:0070.6169826345716
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2026-07-06T10:26:46+08:00116.60046941141955
2026-07-06T10:27:44+08:00117.18519398147501
2026-07-06T10:28:52+08:00152.9959764735467
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2026-07-06T16:19:43+08:00196.16
TradeGo forecast multiple
TimeMultiple
Broker margin funds trend
TimeBrokerMargin funds
Prediction Model 1-Lot Expected Lots— Lots for expected 1-lot allotment—
Multiple derivation
Recent first-day return
-0.2%
→
Participants
15,804
→
Avg lots
42.4
→
Oversubscription
9x
9x = 15,804 × 42.4 ÷ 71,365 A+H secondary · participants ×0.45 H-share discount 31.0% margin-weighted 100% → 262.9x
1x1397.0x
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.56
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.67
This model does not support allocation strategy adjustment

Actual vs Predicted Comparison

Using the actual oversubscription ratio 327.49x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.565, Pool B α=0.665) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier

Lots Subscription Amount (HKD) Actual Expected Lots Predicted Expected Lots Error

LogoCCTC Allotment Prediction Matrix

Rows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates expected ≥1 lot. Non-preset multiples are interpolated from the nearest grid points.

Offering Mechanism

Mechanism B

Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).

Allocation Strategy Coefficient α

α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].

  • α → 0: Per-capita allocation — regardless of lots subscribed, every allottee receives the same number of shares. More favorable to retail (small) applications.
  • α → 1: Proportional allocation — allotted shares are proportional to lots subscribed. More favorable to large applications.
  • Historical actual α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0. α varies widely across IPOs, reflecting each issuer's allocation strategy.
Allotment Rate Definition

The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").

Expected Allotment Lots

Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier

Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.

About this page

This page shows expected-lot forecasts for CCTC (06951): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 22087 allotment-tier records across 592 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation). You can override the oversubscription multiple and the allocation-method α right on the page, replacing cibo's defaults to see expected lots under your own scenario. How allotment rates and clawback work is explained in How Hong Kong IPO Allotment Rates Work.
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.

Cibo — HK IPO Allotment Forecasts, Allottee Profiling & Stock Connect