Cfmee 09630Expected Lots

Cfmee (09630) Expected Lots
Offering Mechanism: Mechanism B | Min Subscription: HK$12,636  |  Public Offering Lots: Pool A 12,839lots / Pool B 12,839lots  |  Offer Price: HK$252.73  |  Lot Size: 50shares  |  Public Offering Size: HK$324.5M
1x3081.0x
Recent first-day return
+4.6%
→
Participants
17,828
→
Avg lots
27.2
→
Oversubscription
19x
19x = 17,828 × 27.2 ÷ 25,678 A+H secondary · participants ×0.44 H-share discount 56.0% margin-weighted 100% → 731.9x
Margin dynamics · 2026-06-23 11:12 Margin multiple562.99x Margin funds1826.8100M TradeGo forecast multiple731.89x
Rank Broker Margin funds
1 富途证券富途 1293.5100M
2 老虎国际老虎 190.6100M
3 辉立证券辉立 113.0100M
4 华泰国际华泰 83.4100M
5 华盛证券华盛 32.0100M
6 致富证券致富 27.6100M
7 复星国际复星 27.0100M
8 盈立证券盈立 22.8100M
9 熊猫证券熊猫 10.9100M
Margin multiple
TimeMultiple
2026-06-17T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-17T10:12:55+08:000.00329758382642998
2026-06-17T10:13:00+08:000.007303994082840237
2026-06-17T10:13:06+08:000.08743219921104536
2026-06-17T11:15:53+08:000.10009861932938856
2026-06-17T11:16:24+08:000.10022189349112426
2026-06-17T11:18:09+08:000.1096215483234714
2026-06-17T11:19:07+08:000.11073101577909271
2026-06-17T11:19:57+08:000.8534578402366864
2026-06-17T12:15:08+08:000.8542899408284024
2026-06-17T12:16:33+08:000.9155571992110454
2026-06-17T12:19:00+08:000.9176836785009862
2026-06-17T12:19:55+08:000.9214435404339251
2026-06-17T12:20:43+08:001.220383382642998
2026-06-17T13:43:24+08:001.224944526627219
2026-06-17T13:44:33+08:001.2254684418145956
2026-06-17T13:45:57+08:001.3086168639053255
2026-06-17T13:48:06+08:001.3159208579881656
2026-06-17T13:50:27+08:001.750462278106509
2026-06-17T14:08:01+08:001.7730830867850098
2026-06-17T14:08:47+08:001.7732371794871795
2026-06-17T14:10:30+08:001.8073841222879685
2026-06-17T14:11:35+08:001.8098187869822486
2026-06-17T14:12:36+08:001.9762389053254439
2026-06-17T14:14:20+08:002.009861932938856
2026-06-17T15:07:18+08:002.2080867850098618
2026-06-17T15:08:35+08:002.2190890039447733
2026-06-17T15:09:19+08:002.2210613905325443
2026-06-17T15:09:56+08:002.2271018244575935
2026-06-17T15:11:38+08:002.8373089250493098
2026-06-17T16:27:06+08:002.8376171104536487
2026-06-17T16:28:00+08:002.8420241617357003
2026-06-17T16:31:09+08:002.8523483727810652
2026-06-17T16:32:44+08:003.832377958579882
2026-06-17T16:34:42+08:003.856416420118343
2026-06-17T16:36:05+08:003.8604844674556213
2026-06-17T17:01:25+08:003.922152366863905
2026-06-17T17:02:33+08:003.9521388067061145
2026-06-17T17:04:16+08:003.974420611439842
2026-06-17T17:06:09+08:003.9825875246548326
2026-06-17T17:07:11+08:004.293854783037475
2026-06-17T18:04:26+08:004.301097140039448
2026-06-17T18:05:26+08:004.303192800788954
2026-06-17T18:07:39+08:004.324457593688363
2026-06-17T18:08:17+08:004.335490631163708
2026-06-17T18:09:01+08:004.374568540433925
2026-06-17T18:09:36+08:004.639607988165681
2026-06-17T18:12:35+08:004.6775764299802765
2026-06-17T20:22:11+08:005.602132642998027
2026-06-17T20:23:40+08:005.610731015779093
2026-06-17T20:24:43+08:005.634091469428008
2026-06-17T20:25:47+08:005.6420118343195265
2026-06-17T20:27:08+08:005.66944033530572
2026-06-17T20:33:24+08:005.623212524654832
2026-06-17T22:23:45+08:005.623736439842209
2026-06-17T22:25:36+08:005.644662228796844
2026-06-17T22:26:07+08:005.644908777120316
2026-06-17T22:27:33+08:005.6692246055226825
2026-06-17T22:28:48+08:005.841808431952662
2026-06-18T09:17:03+08:005.861717209072978
2026-06-18T09:17:10+08:005.862241124260355
2026-06-18T09:17:17+08:005.862241124260355
2026-06-18T09:17:22+08:005.909670857988166
2026-06-18T09:17:28+08:005.9098865877712035
2026-06-18T09:17:34+08:006.5570759368836296
2026-06-18T09:17:41+08:006.653568786982248
2026-06-18T09:17:55+08:006.836168639053255
2026-06-18T09:18:01+08:006.846554487179487
2026-06-18T09:18:07+08:006.846955128205129
2026-06-18T09:18:13+08:006.927083333333333
2026-06-18T10:07:06+08:006.989336785009862
2026-06-18T10:07:11+08:006.996979783037475
2026-06-18T10:07:17+08:006.998582347140039
2026-06-18T10:07:22+08:006.997996794871795
2026-06-18T10:07:29+08:007.003266765285996
2026-06-18T10:07:41+08:007.004684418145956
2026-06-18T10:07:48+08:007.050912228796844
2026-06-18T11:19:27+08:007.08817184418146
2026-06-18T11:20:31+08:007.091900887573964
2026-06-18T11:22:39+08:007.110823471400394
2026-06-18T11:22:51+08:007.111193293885601
2026-06-18T11:25:42+08:008.146696252465484
2026-06-18T12:16:15+08:008.147959812623274
2026-06-18T12:18:59+08:008.249167899408285
2026-06-18T12:20:32+08:008.270062869822485
2026-06-18T12:22:41+08:008.40726701183432
2026-06-18T12:23:18+08:008.558277859960553
2026-06-18T14:06:07+08:008.574889053254438
2026-06-18T14:06:09+08:008.577693540433925
2026-06-18T14:09:50+08:008.596646942800788
2026-06-18T14:09:56+08:008.640008629191321
2026-06-18T14:11:35+08:008.640039447731755
2026-06-18T14:11:44+08:008.64031681459566
2026-06-18T14:12:49+08:008.791327662721894
2026-06-18T14:12:53+08:009.03171227810651
2026-06-18T14:13:49+08:009.06878698224852
2026-06-18T14:13:52+08:009.083764792899409
2026-06-18T14:16:28+08:009.107556706114398
2026-06-18T14:16:31+08:009.108943540433925
2026-06-18T14:19:58+08:009.189410749506903
2026-06-18T15:11:52+08:009.248304980276133
2026-06-18T15:11:58+08:009.268090483234714
2026-06-18T15:12:24+08:009.284763313609467
2026-06-18T15:12:35+08:009.454419378698224
2026-06-18T15:12:47+08:009.790341469428007
2026-06-18T16:12:08+08:009.853858481262327
2026-06-18T16:13:01+08:009.854289940828401
2026-06-18T16:14:26+08:009.958086785009861
2026-06-18T16:15:36+08:009.958333333333334
2026-06-18T16:16:38+08:009.991031804733728
2026-06-18T16:17:35+08:0011.701460798816568
2026-06-18T16:18:16+08:0011.732279339250493
2026-06-18T17:47:59+08:0011.879591962524655
2026-06-18T17:49:58+08:0012.027428500986193
2026-06-18T17:51:50+08:0012.043793145956608
2026-06-18T17:53:15+08:0012.078094181459566
2026-06-18T17:53:57+08:0013.514238165680473
2026-06-18T17:55:43+08:0014.2847016765286
2026-06-18T18:11:29+08:0014.36479906311637
2026-06-18T18:11:41+08:0014.395617603550296
2026-06-18T18:11:48+08:0014.420364891518737
2026-06-18T18:11:53+08:0014.431644477317555
2026-06-18T18:12:05+08:0014.75597879684418
2026-06-18T18:12:17+08:0014.757889546351084
2026-06-18T18:12:25+08:0016.089250493096646
2026-06-18T18:16:41+08:0016.55048076923077
2026-06-18T20:30:04+08:0016.57066691321499
2026-06-18T20:31:04+08:0016.637851331360945
2026-06-18T20:32:47+08:0016.684325690335307
2026-06-18T20:33:59+08:0016.721955128205128
2026-06-18T20:35:07+08:0016.750832100591715
2026-06-18T20:36:07+08:0018.606108234714004
2026-06-18T21:34:34+08:0018.624476084812624
2026-06-18T22:09:21+08:0018.65874630177515
2026-06-18T22:09:48+08:0018.68891765285996
2026-06-18T22:10:24+08:0018.716808431952664
2026-06-18T22:10:45+08:0019.80778476331361
2026-06-19T09:17:30+08:0022.90812993096647
2026-06-19T09:17:35+08:0023.675511587771204
2026-06-19T09:20:08+08:0023.717671351084814
2026-06-19T09:21:37+08:0023.830189842209073
2026-06-19T09:24:47+08:0023.909979043392504
2026-06-19T09:26:41+08:0023.918916420118343
2026-06-19T09:31:34+08:0024.701614891518737
2026-06-19T09:33:07+08:0024.701614891518737
2026-06-19T10:17:00+08:0024.702077169625248
2026-06-19T10:17:34+08:0024.71230892504931
2026-06-19T10:19:24+08:0024.71372657790927
2026-06-19T10:20:45+08:0024.717147435897434
2026-06-19T10:23:20+08:0024.71717825443787
2026-06-19T10:24:50+08:0025.09008259368836
2026-06-19T11:40:11+08:0025.091900887573964
2026-06-19T11:41:58+08:0025.09381163708087
2026-06-19T11:43:16+08:0025.09828032544379
2026-06-19T11:44:43+08:0025.113258136094675
2026-06-19T11:45:27+08:0025.207809418145956
2026-06-19T11:50:30+08:0025.36190212031558
2026-06-19T12:08:05+08:0025.363134861932938
2026-06-19T12:10:19+08:0025.366771449704142
2026-06-19T12:11:25+08:0025.384091469428007
2026-06-19T12:12:52+08:0025.38843688362919
2026-06-19T12:13:28+08:0025.388929980276135
2026-06-19T12:14:38+08:0025.502958579881657
2026-06-19T14:12:44+08:0025.5069958086785
2026-06-19T14:12:59+08:0025.508906558185405
2026-06-19T14:17:41+08:0025.526319033530573
2026-06-19T14:17:44+08:0025.527767504930967
2026-06-19T14:19:34+08:0025.529246794871796
2026-06-19T14:19:39+08:0025.53880054240631
2026-06-19T14:22:56+08:0025.540896203155818
2026-06-19T14:23:00+08:0025.540957840236686
2026-06-19T14:23:56+08:0025.547768737672584
2026-06-19T14:24:03+08:0025.55245315581854
2026-06-19T14:26:57+08:0025.913030078895464
2026-06-19T14:27:01+08:0026.162660256410255
2026-06-19T15:16:14+08:0026.162875986193296
2026-06-19T15:16:53+08:0026.182846400394478
2026-06-19T15:18:06+08:0026.20176898422091
2026-06-19T15:19:12+08:0026.204265285996055
2026-06-19T15:19:56+08:0026.221770216962526
2026-06-19T15:21:19+08:0026.37278106508876
2026-06-19T17:10:04+08:0026.37580128205128
2026-06-19T17:12:11+08:0026.37697238658777
2026-06-19T17:13:24+08:0026.59578402366864
2026-06-19T17:13:28+08:0026.682075936883628
2026-06-19T17:17:21+08:0026.732125246548325
2026-06-19T17:17:25+08:0026.737395216962526
2026-06-19T17:21:26+08:0026.73995315581854
2026-06-19T17:21:30+08:0026.7413708086785
2026-06-19T17:22:26+08:0026.761433678500985
2026-06-19T17:22:30+08:0026.762758875739646
2026-06-19T22:48:31+08:0026.818478796844182
2026-06-19T22:52:58+08:0026.83619945759369
2026-06-19T22:59:22+08:0026.84994452662722
2026-06-19T23:05:32+08:0026.85167036489152
2026-06-19T23:05:45+08:0026.852903106508876
2026-06-19T23:12:39+08:0026.919162968441814
2026-06-19T23:18:16+08:0028.074858234714004
2026-06-19T23:23:53+08:0028.079357741617358
2026-06-19T23:25:31+08:0028.088449211045365
2026-06-20T10:22:59+08:0028.088449211045365
2026-06-20T10:24:40+08:0028.582562869822485
2026-06-20T10:25:34+08:0028.61775764299803
2026-06-20T10:27:58+08:0028.632427268244577
2026-06-20T10:29:17+08:0028.658931213017752
2026-06-20T10:30:43+08:0028.668053500986193
2026-06-20T10:32:46+08:0029.290588017751478
2026-06-20T10:33:22+08:0029.500154092702168
2026-06-20T12:20:26+08:0029.504129684418146
2026-06-20T12:21:50+08:0029.510200936883628
2026-06-20T12:23:12+08:0029.531126725838263
2026-06-20T12:24:16+08:0029.545179980276135
2026-06-20T12:25:13+08:0029.599821252465482
2026-06-20T12:27:05+08:0030.182291666666668
2026-06-20T14:13:54+08:0030.18830128205128
2026-06-20T14:15:01+08:0030.277305226824456
2026-06-20T14:15:47+08:0030.278168145956606
2026-06-20T14:16:36+08:0030.28676651873767
2026-06-20T14:18:19+08:0030.288892998027613
2026-06-20T14:19:39+08:0031.44150641025641
2026-06-20T18:34:02+08:0031.446160009861934
2026-06-20T18:36:03+08:0031.459596893491124
2026-06-20T18:37:36+08:0031.475283530571993
2026-06-20T18:38:50+08:0031.551929240631164
2026-06-20T18:39:52+08:0031.561513806706113
2026-06-20T18:41:03+08:0032.40902366863905
2026-06-20T18:41:28+08:0032.52921597633136
2026-06-20T20:12:28+08:0032.53084935897436
2026-06-20T20:13:44+08:0032.53735207100592
2026-06-20T20:15:30+08:0032.55011094674556
2026-06-20T20:16:15+08:0032.561575443786985
2026-06-20T20:17:55+08:0032.57300912228797
2026-06-20T20:18:36+08:0032.78257519723866
2026-06-20T21:09:56+08:0032.78337647928994
2026-06-20T22:06:03+08:0032.79844674556213
2026-06-20T22:07:06+08:0032.79866247534517
2026-06-20T22:08:34+08:0032.842116617357
2026-06-20T22:09:22+08:0033.498551528599606
2026-06-21T09:53:53+08:0033.47620808678501
2026-06-21T09:54:01+08:0033.48557692307692
2026-06-21T09:54:23+08:0033.60447485207101
2026-06-21T09:54:31+08:0033.62050049309665
2026-06-21T09:54:39+08:0035.21073717948718
2026-06-21T09:54:48+08:0035.2186575443787
2026-06-21T09:55:23+08:0035.23212524654832
2026-06-21T09:55:32+08:0035.312869822485204
2026-06-21T09:55:41+08:0035.32855645956607
2026-06-21T09:55:49+08:0035.328433185404336
2026-06-21T09:56:09+08:0035.84310281065089
2026-06-21T10:09:56+08:0035.84424309664694
2026-06-21T10:10:02+08:0035.84396572978304
2026-06-21T10:10:11+08:0035.84606139053255
2026-06-21T10:10:18+08:0035.87549309664694
2026-06-21T10:10:35+08:0035.879715236686394
2026-06-21T10:10:42+08:0036.634769477317555
2026-06-21T12:37:09+08:0036.63603303747534
2026-06-21T12:37:21+08:0036.63791296844182
2026-06-21T12:39:12+08:0036.6475283530572
2026-06-21T12:39:17+08:0036.65070266272189
2026-06-21T12:41:23+08:0036.672799556213015
2026-06-21T12:41:55+08:0036.68703772189349
2026-06-21T12:43:31+08:0036.711076183431956
2026-06-21T12:43:35+08:0036.829573471400394
2026-06-21T12:47:06+08:0036.82966592702169
2026-06-21T12:47:24+08:0036.83247041420118
2026-06-21T12:48:18+08:0036.8263067061144
2026-06-21T12:48:21+08:0037.01121794871795
2026-06-21T13:05:17+08:0037.0070882642998
2026-06-21T13:06:16+08:0037.008690828402365
2026-06-21T13:07:12+08:0037.01294378698225
2026-06-21T13:08:09+08:0037.060558431952664
2026-06-21T13:08:33+08:0037.06191444773175
2026-06-21T13:09:19+08:0037.30846277120315
2026-06-21T15:48:51+08:0037.3124075443787
2026-06-21T15:50:51+08:0037.319372534516766
2026-06-21T15:51:49+08:0037.338480029585796
2026-06-21T15:52:35+08:0037.386957593688365
2026-06-21T15:53:36+08:0036.91981015779093
2026-06-21T15:54:54+08:0037.311205621301774
2026-06-21T18:30:55+08:0037.32590606508876
2026-06-21T18:31:52+08:0037.33262450690335
2026-06-21T18:33:57+08:0037.409362672583825
2026-06-21T18:35:05+08:0037.428809171597635
2026-06-21T18:36:31+08:0037.52675049309665
2026-06-21T18:37:44+08:0038.485207100591715
2026-06-21T20:05:57+08:0038.50493096646943
2026-06-21T20:06:50+08:0038.505855522682445
2026-06-21T20:08:14+08:0038.544933431952664
2026-06-21T20:09:05+08:0038.562222633136095
2026-06-21T20:09:55+08:0038.56293145956607
2026-06-21T20:11:09+08:0039.36113165680474
2026-06-21T21:05:54+08:0039.36600098619329
2026-06-21T22:11:05+08:0039.444434171597635
2026-06-21T22:11:42+08:0039.48831977317554
2026-06-21T22:13:41+08:0039.510416666666664
2026-06-21T22:15:02+08:0039.83709319526627
2026-06-21T22:15:07+08:0040.62296597633136
2026-06-22T09:11:48+08:0040.673816568047336
2026-06-22T09:11:53+08:0040.69819403353057
2026-06-22T09:12:20+08:0040.69819403353057
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TradeGo forecast multiple
TimeMultiple
Broker margin funds trend
TimeBrokerMargin funds
Pool A α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.53
Pool B α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.63
This model does not support allocation strategy adjustment

Actual vs Predicted Comparison

Using the actual oversubscription ratio 1007.22x and current allocation strategy (Pool A α=0.526, Pool B α=0.626) as the baseline, comparing actual vs predicted expected allotment lots per tier

Lots Subscription Amount (HKD) Actual Expected Lots Predicted Expected Lots Error

LogoCfmee Allotment Prediction Matrix

Rows are subscription tiers, columns are different oversubscription ratios, values are expected allotment lots; green indicates guaranteed allotment (≥1 lot)

Pool A

Oversubscription
731.9x
Allocation Strategy
α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.53

Pool B

Oversubscription
731.9x
Allocation Strategy
α=
Allocation Strategy Coefficient α
Allocation Strategy Coefficient
Reflects the issuer's allocation preference across different subscription sizes.
α → 0  Per-capita allocation — every allottee receives the same number of shares, regardless of lots subscribed.
α → 1  Proportional allocation — the more lots subscribed, the more shares allotted.
Historical α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0
0.63
Offering Mechanism

Mechanism B

Flexible offering mechanism under HKEX Practice Note 18. Minimum initial allocation to the public offer tranche is 10% of offering shares, with no clawback mechanism. Maximum initial allocation is 60% (as at least 40% of total offering shares must be allocated to the placing tranche, excluding cornerstones).

Allocation Strategy Coefficient α

α is the issuer's allocation preference coefficient, describing the issuer's allocation tendency across subscription sizes. α ranges [0, 1].

  • α → 0: Per-capita allocation — regardless of lots subscribed, every allottee receives the same number of shares. More favorable to retail (small) applications.
  • α → 1: Proportional allocation — allotted shares are proportional to lots subscribed. More favorable to large applications.
  • Historical actual α range (P10–P90): Pool A 0.3–0.9, Pool B 0.4–1.0. α varies widely across IPOs, reflecting each issuer's allocation strategy.
Allotment Rate Definition

The "allotment rate" on this page follows the exact HKEX allotment results announcement definition: Allotment rate = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ total valid shares applied in the tier × 100%. This is the official HKEX standard and is fundamentally different from other definitions used elsewhere (e.g. "ratio of applicants who got allotted").

Expected Allotment Lots

Expected allotment lots = total shares allotted to the tier ÷ lot size ÷ number of applicants in the tier

Example: a tier with 50,000 total allotted shares, 100 shares per lot, and 500 applicants → expected allotment lots = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 lots.

// About this page //

This page shows expected-lot forecasts for Cfmee (09630): expected hit rate based on similar-IPO matching and Pool A/B capital-efficiency comparison.
The default oversubscription multiple follows the chain recent first-day return → participant count → average lots per participant → multiple, i.e. multiple = participants × average lots ÷ public-offer lots; participant count and average lots are anchored on the recent IPO median and adjusted by offering size, A+H status, H-share premium/discount, industry, concurrent IPOs, sponsor track record and recent HSI moves.
Early in the subscription window the default multiple relies on the model; as subscription progresses it blends in the margin multiple; near the deadline (roughly 90% through) it follows the margin multiple.
Hit-rate forecasts fit 10,897 allotment-tier records across 356 historical IPOs via regression and KNN similar-IPO matching, estimating expected lots per application tier and applying the allocation-strategy coefficient α (equal-per-person to proportional allocation).
Data sources: HKEXnews public-offer allotment result announcements, prospectuses and FINI announcements; margin data (margin multiple, TradeGo forecast multiple and broker breakdown) comes from 捷利交易宝 (TradeGo), where the margin multiple covers only reporting brokers and the TradeGo forecast multiple is a full-market extrapolation.
The margin multiple updates intraday in real time; the hit-rate model is refreshed as new IPO allotment data is ingested.

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Cibo — HK IPO Allotment Forecasts, Allottee Profiling & Stock Connect